http://www.marketwatch.com/story/natural-gas-commodity-markets-sleeping-giant-2013-03-15?link=home_carousel
I believe every word of it, not because I'm an expert in NGas supply and demand, but because it's the perfect setup. The dog that everyone kicks on their way to school is about to bite back.
I'm starting to think I'll be able to trade the port the way I've been doing it for the next 7 years. Then I'll move it all into bonds paying 6% or more, and be done with the game.
ReplyDeleteAgree regarding nat gas. Pure supply-demand at work here. No-one going after nat gas anymore and usage increasing due to low price (and weather). As the saying goes, in commodities the cure for low prices is low prices.
ReplyDeleteEarly reactions in the futes markets presumably in response to Cyprus: $USD up +0.6%. Gold also up >1600. DJIA -103.
ReplyDeleteCyprus is going to be one of those things that in 3 months, everyone on TV, especially the fast money guys, will be saying "it was obvious that...", but the problem right now is that no-one really knows if this is the trigger for a good-sized correction or if it is a non-event.
ReplyDeleteS&P is off 16pts?
DeleteAnother car down the tubes. My truck this time. If you told me I would spend 100K on new cars this year I'd have laughed. Crying now.
ReplyDeleteWhat happened?
DeleteCracked head. 170K miles which should have been nothing. I keep up on the maintenance.
DeleteBought a basic Tacoma. 30K
DeleteSounds like a good price. Hope the next contract takes care of it.
DeleteCracked head from overheating. Your NSPH trade bought a new truck.
Deletefrom our friends at Twitz...
ReplyDeletepepealfonso
Mar. 17 at 6:32 PM
$BAC i believe $BAC will be up tomorrow.
Thanks Pepe.
evening fellas
ReplyDeletespring break is over, kids are sad, parents are glad. Tomorrow will be a long adjustment day.
I see we are getting a little sell off. It will be interesting to see if they value guys take us back up tomorrow. For some reason this just reinforces "the market is a casino" theory to me.
My spring break week of hell starts tomorrow.
DeleteThe fear is Europe might blow up, situation could balloon into another Lehman event or something like that. Okay, we'll see....
Delete"I keep up on the maintenance. "
ReplyDeleteWhat do you mean by that, you trusted your truck to the dealer and expected they would actually perform the maintenance you were paying for?
I've seen more vehicles screwed up due to incorrectly performed maintenance than I can shake a stick at.
Occasionally I restore old hoopties and they almost always have crap work done on them. I've bought two used cars where the bolts attaching the transmission to the block were only hand tightened, can't tell you how many parts were either left off or replaced with incorrect parts over the years.
This might be a good time to place a sell limit at $5.15 for the 1K shares of TVIX I purchased last week at $4.15. The market has a great ability to get over minor road bumps such as Cyprus, so I need to try to take profits while they are here...
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/03/the-fix-is-in-for-gold-and-silver-prices/
ReplyDeleteKinda explains how gold could've reached $1,900 just as central banks decided to buy their gold back.
DeleteBAC - Hey, umm, this one's not up....., pepealfonso!
ReplyDeleteCVD - Neutral -> Buy Ugh, after a run like that sure seems like a suspicious time to upgrade....
BIDU - There's your $83 handle.... Now what?
YRCW - Yousa.......!!!! ;)
ReplyDeleteThe more I look at this chart, the more I see why $5.80 was important from a technical perspective.
DeleteHave fun ladies. At the close.
ReplyDeleteBIDU - Amazing how the 200SMA has been parallel with upper trend line going back to last August.
ReplyDeleteGGB/SID - These guys have really taken it on the chin, WTF?
UNH - P/E seems too low on this one..... PO is $63, as well.
You da man, tof.
ReplyDeleteFor the first time in a long while I'm not tempted to sell a move up like this in YRCW, despite most of my money being in it and being up 40% or so. the reason being it was one of the most undervalued stocks I've ever seen and its still one of the most undervalued stocks i've seen. Could be the worst decision ever to not take profits but I think it's where PIR was when it first started breaking out in 2009. If they can maneuver this turnaround correctly the stock goes to the $40's to $50s next year.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Jesse, for alerting us last night about the steel/coal/NG/shippers sector group. Their long-term charts indeed look awesome. I think it is time to start scaling into this sector. I just bought 4 contracts of January 2015 $7 calls on ANR at $3.65.
ReplyDeleteGot Random Thoughts? (....and trades?)
ReplyDelete"The Ps sold off a bit on Friday but recovered much of those losses. This action keeps their uptrend intact and it keeps them just below all-time highs. But wait, there's more. Over the weekend, something happened in Cyprus. So, the futures are getting whacked pre-market.
Can a country half the size of Connecticut take down the U.S.? Of course not. This is just a market looking for an excuse to sell off.
You know the routine though. Honor your stops just in case this turns into something bigger.
My gut is that today will be a "knockout*" type move and we could end positive by the end of the day. Intuition or "into wishing?" Well, this is why we use stops."
Into wishing!
Bought SNE, GASS on the pullback.
Sold some YRCW into the parabolic move. Waiting to reload TOF's over the top pick. $5.90 to $9.30 (where I sold some), that's a heck of a nice move. If it goes to $50 then retirement is in sight.
Buy fear, sell greed.
Like Lynch says, don't get scared out of them. Easier said than done.
YRCW reported laying off 491 employees in Missouri on the 15th. I'm not sure if that is the reason for some of this move but I suppose it should be looked at. They say it's to realign distribution which could be a good thing.
Deletefrom what i read it's actually only a technical filing they had to make just in case they do actually lay people off. like cyprus is a "reason" for selling off today, so too is this a "reason" for going up. i think the reason has more to do with improving fundamentals an a price to sales of 0.01 (or 0.03) when it was at $6 vs an industry avg of $0.40 to $0.50.
DeleteHey, whatever, I'm good! Started reloading some at $8.80...that might be all I get!
DeleteHoly crap!
DeleteI think it is a good sign that the restructuring is moving forward. If they can restructure, they should be able to survive and, like TOF says, no reason the stock can't move up a lot. Not being able to get agreement with the unions could be a major problem, but I think all parties know something has to give here and potentially positive data points, like today, will get the stock moving.
DeleteWell part of the reason why it's a good time to be buying is they have no major debt payments due until late 2014 and the pension restructuring already took place. so now it just comes down to performance and the trends in gross margins and operating income are strengthening. logically if they can grow revenues 3 or 4% this year (they grew them about 2% last year after backing out the truckload division they sold in 2011) and keep margins like they were in 2012 then they should be able to do huge EPS #'s and show they can begin repaying debt. that will be huge for the stock. those results last quarter really surprised me. it's pretty obvious the only reason the stock fell was to help get the big boys in and scare out the retail investors. "they" did it again.
Deletewhy is 3% or 4% possible? well they said on several calls/presentations that 2013 is the year of performance. by this they mean they are focusing on growing. they spent 18 months restructuring / cutting fat / focusing on only profitable customers. so they weren't concerned about revenue growth. toward the latter part of the year they hired a new head sales guy that has a ton of experience in trucking which is a pretty obvious sign they're gearing up for growth. consider that for every 1% of revenue growth, assuming 67% margins, gross profit grows $33.5 Million ($4.29 per share or $1.70 fully diluted). just think about that for a few minutes...that's insane and shows you just how cheap it is on a price to sales comparison.
Deletestill lots of risks though of course. they need to perform this year.
Nice reversal today in BIDU and the stock has been building strength. I think it's at a bottom and is going above $100 soon. Longer term fundamentals will play out well for them, being that they have a huge leadership position in search which is far from the maturity stage in China. Just ignore the short term noise in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteYou never can tell what markets will do. I went to bed last night thinking Cyprus would cause problems and exactly the opposite happened.
ReplyDeleteMy list last night was long yen/short ultra-short yen, long UUP, long PM's. Luckily Big Dave altered my perception. TOF didn't hurt either!
ANR looks ready to go. I like Jesse's call on it. Building a position here over the next couple of weeks looks to be a very good move.
ReplyDeleteI see a couple of our stocks on this list: BYD and SQNM
ReplyDelete"12:44 PM EDT, 03/18/2013 (MidnightTrader) -- Credit Suisse on "Finding our edge: With the market climbing to new highs, our Global Equity Strategists believe equities can continue to climb higher, citing several reasons to remain overweight equities despite some technicals being somewhat extended...The macro environment has taken the backseat, while stock-picking is very much in focus. This report identifies companies where our analysts stand apart from the consensus view, companies where our analysis reveals opportunities that the market has not yet priced in.
Leveraging a systematic process: "We screened our current US coverage universe to identify companies where our analysts' views diverged from that of the Street, focusing on both rating as well as earnings projections. To further strengthen the list of stocks, we worked closely with the research analysts to select stories in which our conviction level is high. The result is a list of 19 outperform-rated names and 5 underperform-rated stocks."
Why and what's next: "For each selected company, we outline our investment thesis, noting specifically where we are different from the Street. Importantly, we highlight key catalysts on the horizon to help guide you to investment opportunities in each name."
Stock specifics: We are more positive than the Street on the following companies: Boyd Gaming Corporation (BYD), The Clorox Company (CLX), Colgate-Palmolive Company (CL), Concur Technologies, Inc (CNQR), Donaldson Company, Inc. (DCI), The Dow Chemical Company (DOW), DTE Energy Co (DTE), Intel Corporation (INTC), Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY), M&T Bank Corporation (MTB), NetSuite Inc (N), Pall Corporation (PLL), Rowan Companies PLC (RDC), United States Steel Corporation (X), VMware, Inc. (VMW), Volcano Corporation (VOLC), XLNX, and Zions Bancorporation (ZION). We are more cautious than consensus on the following companies: Anixter International Inc (AXE), Brooks Automation, Inc (BRKS), Patterson Companies, Inc (PDCO), Pinnacle Entertainment, Inc (PNK), and Sequenom, Inc (SQNM)."
$8.25 seems like a logical re-test of the breakout for YRCW. let's see if "they" can bring it down there.
ReplyDeleteBYD looks ready to run very soon...if it can clear $7.48. could have a move like YRCW...
ReplyDeleteGold/silver switched to having a negative correlation with S&P last November, and today they are nicely demonstrating that. AUMN, however, decided to behave like S&P today -- WTF???
ReplyDeleteGPL has, as well... and SLW hasn't moved appreciably.
DeleteIn order to diversify across coal companies, I have just purchased 2 January 2015 $20 calls on BTU at $5.80.
ReplyDeleteBTU made a higher low and a higher high (on the intraday chart) since the March 4 bottom, so a purchase of some calls might be justified now...
DeleteConcerning steel: Report released today....
Delete"Top picks and thoughts: “Self-help” best in uncertain world
We continue to prefer stocks that have some element of “self help,” which we
would define as an element to its thesis beyond simply improving market
conditions. Projects such as direct reduced iron (DRI) expansion for Nucor and
ATI’s Brackenridge flat-rolled mill add cost savings and better production
capabilities, which can support earnings even under our slow growth assumptions.
Nucor and ATI are two top picks, and this theme of balance sheet strength and
optionality are unique advantages in our coverage universe. KALU offers similar
attractive characteristics, while we think Noranda appears oversold. Cheap U.S.
gas and eventual non-residential construction recovery continue to be popular
themes, although we fear may be already baked into valuations."
TOF- Wow, you didn't sell any today? Jezze man. You got a steady hand.
ReplyDeleteno man. i think it has a good shot of being multiples higher within a year. i can't really find anything else that has the upside potential that this does. i know the risks involved of course...
DeleteI 2nd 2nd's you da man TOF.
DeleteYour an amazingly talented trader.
HPOL
ReplyDeleteI do not know anything about this company, but was looking at an article of stocks for the next ten years dated APR 07. At that time this stock was 5.78 now at 1.67 with vol spike in Feb. Since you guys like small cap I decided to mention it.
Of the ten stocks three do not seem to be around or may have been bought out. The three that did the best are OSIS, SIRO, and UNFI.
FWIW
TCK - Has this one fallen enough? Well, maybe it can get even more oversold....
ReplyDelete