Whoa. Before the trading day began, half the market analysts had already decided what the implications were, and by end of day, the other half seemed to have dismissed it entirely. Personally, I decided to sit out at least a day before deciding on any trades.
I did notice miners struck out any batters who swung at the opening pitch this morning.
ReplyDeleteMeredith Whitney tells CNBC she has never been this bullish
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/03/18/meredith-whitney-tells-cnbc-she-has-never-been-this-bullish/
She's made some good calls on banks before. Lot of people jumping on the bull bandwagon lately.
But I think Howard Marks of Oaktree has a good read on things when he says:
DeleteThus I’d say we’re somewhere in the first half of stage two.Pessimists no longer control market prices, but certainly neither have carefree optimists taken over.
http://www.scribd.com/fullscreen/130266615?access_key=key-e6oq67vbfit1sub5ay
And of course, Hussman saying we've gone from the 2% set or worst conditions to the 1% set of worst conditions.
Deletewow crazy...about whitney. good stuff. i agree to an extent. i think highly leveraged plays will do very well as the housing market continues to improve. the market in san diego is white hot by the way. we've looked at a handful of properties and they were all off the market within a week...and the majority of them were in escrow with cash offers behind them shortly after we looked at them. kind of annoying actually but far far different than a year or two ago. san diego is different because it's a desirable place to live and prices dropped 50%, but it's still a huge benefit to banks, no doubt about it.
DeleteHow strange. I'm right in the middle of it and still don't 'see' it. I was asked to price a little remodel I really don't want, but it's right where we are working so it would be really easy for me. $300k job. I've never done this before, but I threw an additional $60K on it. They only asked when we could start.
DeleteDid you throw the additional $60k on it before or after the Tacoma?
DeleteWhat do you mean you "don't see it", sounds like business is booming all around you and seeking you out?
DeleteSee, I'm one of those types who looks for confirmation signals because I know the market is capable of some pretty elaborate con jobs.
DeleteAll I can say is, I feel bullish primarily b/c BAC is over $12, that's saying something unbelievably positive to me.
DeleteEveryone has an opinion, and opinions are all over the place.
ReplyDeleteWe should all stick to what 'works' for each of us, which can of course include those opinions which have worked as 'tells.'
Thats
Deletefunny. I don't have any faith in the major banks anymore.
evening
ReplyDeletesold half my IAG gold miner today at 7.03 that I bot last week at 6.26. 4 days ago was the time to sell when I got such a good pop in a couple of days. Friday would have been a good time to buy back in, but I didn't so I still have half a position with a breakeven stop in place.
Got stopped out of my remaining CF shares at breakeven today. This one looks a little weak anyway. I made a couple of lunches on half so its more of a bad trade that went my way.
I did a screen on FINVZ this weekend and came up with AXL. I was screening stocks that were 0-5% below 52 wk hi, EPS growth over 25% qtr over qtr AND over 25% growth for next year. This was the one I added to my watch list.
ReplyDeleteI think we've mentioned it here before. Morningstar says "What Does This Company Do?
American Axle & Mfg Holdings, Inc. manufactures, engineers, designs and validates driveline and drivetrain systems & related components & chassis modules for light trucks, sport utility vehicles, passenger cars, crossover vehicles & commercial vehicles."
Annual basic EPS have gone from -23.73 in Dec08 to 4.88 in Dec12. Both Operating Cash Flow and Free Cash Flow are big time negative for Dec12 so I'll have to look into this later.
One thing that sticks out on the Cash Flow from Ops is Deferred Income Taxes of -344 and Other Non-Cash Items of -209, both singnificantly different for Dec12 than from previous years. I'll have to look at these later, too late in the night right now.
However, the chart looks good for a long. Price pulled back to the 20 day which has typically been a good buy point since Dec. Not a get rich quick stock though.
AXL - This one's on my broker's USA1 list, I think. I'll look tomorrow and post my finding.
DeleteThe consensus opinion right now seems to be, 'Cyprus? No worries.' So I'm worried.
ReplyDeleteYes, depends on how Europe proceeds, Spain and Italy, etc. Bank runs aren't good.
DeleteI'm surprised you're not in YRCW.
DeleteEveryone is piling on Cyprus. Reality is something had to be done. No way the EU was going to fund a bailout of essentially a money laundering operation, so the approach they took was probably reasonable - my readin is that it was Cyprus government who wanted to tax low-value accounts, not the EU. Too many Euro-countries think they can live the Euro-level life style without the Euro-level work. Doesn't work that way.
DeleteSingle family housing starts at four year high.
ReplyDeleteGMO - SDL.AX - Still no news, Sundance printed new 52wk low.
ReplyDeleteGot Random Thoughts?
ReplyDelete"As I said yesterday, I really doubt that a country half the size of Connecticut* will take down our market. And, it didn't. The indices gapped lower but quickly found their low for a nearly perfect textbook opening gap reversal (OGRe). They didn't quite make it back to the plus column like I predicted (and hoped!) but they did recover nicely nonetheless-enough to fire off a nice day trade (you're welcome). Although I preach against daytrading, these type of "gift horses" should not be ignored. They can also be a wonderful opportunity to get a head start on a longer-term trade. I'll flesh this out on Thursday in the chart show. That, in and of itself, should be enough to pay for admission.
The longer-term trend in the market remains up. Don't fight the tape. As long as we remain at or near all-time highs in the Ps, then the trend remains intact.
I'm amazed at the number or professionals that are bearish. Their arguments are quite convincing. Me? Well, I'm just a trend following moron and as long as we can hold at or near new highs, I'm bullish. It took me many years to unlearn all the stuff that "would make me smarter than the market."
As usual, take things one day at a time. Yesterday the market survived a test nicely.
Again, and ideally, I'd like to see the market accelerate to new highs, not look back for a while, and then have an orderly pullback.
So what do we do? I'm not seeing a tremendous amount of new long side setups just yet, so focus mostly on managing existing longs--honor your stops & take partial profits as offered. I'd continue to avoid new shorts as long as the market remains at or near new highs. Don't worry, if it tanks, we'll have plenty enough time to get short.
Best of luck with your trading today."
The Fed's got our backs covered, man!
DeleteAXL - 12mo PO is $14, short interest is nearly 11%
ReplyDeleteTRW - PO is $79
VMW - Looks like bull flag, I can't believe this one's gonna rally, b/c it's in my portfolio.
ReplyDelete"YRC Worldwide unaware of reason for recent sharp increase in trading volume theflyonthewall.com +5.17%"
ReplyDeleteImproving fundamentals, technical chart bottoming?
Laying off 490 people?
DeleteI dunno, depends on if people are dead wood or positive revenue generators. sounds like business contraction or positive reorganization.
DeleteChange is good?
$4.85B sales, 32,000 employees.
DeleteBAH - $5.75B sales, 24,800 employees
GASS - Oh boy! ;)
ReplyDeleteSMP - Looks like bear flag.
ReplyDeleteBAC - LOL!
ReplyDeleteMM/VELT- Was looking for a break of 2 in VELT, then a snap back up. We got that this morning. MM dragging is a problem though.
ReplyDeleteRAS
ReplyDeletei was looking at that sucker last night...saw they increased dividend 20%.
DeleteYeah, there doing really well for what I thought might possibly be some crocks.
Deleteyeah, that one, NCT, and FIG all were huge div plays over last summer. I think each of them would yield in excess of 10% on cost from last summer. i personally knew it would happen but the stuff i was watching last summer all looked like they would appreciate more and ultimately give you better returns than the 10%+ div income with capital appreciation.
DeleteYRCW is one volatile mofo today huh? anyone that hopped in yesterday has to be a bit seasick. i do see it as a positive that this many shares have been absorbed at higher prices and above the $8.25 prior resistance level. then again, i'm not really looking to lock in profits soon so i am ok with it dropping back to $7.
ReplyDeletei finally bit back at 8.72 for just 250. So we now know it will go back to at least 8.25. I will buy more there.
DeleteYou have to expect some consolidation after a 27% day! No worries.
DeleteNice prediction re 8.25.
Deleteadded 500 @8.21
DeleteVMW - F this one, out at $80.28
ReplyDeleteDamn, if only I'd waited for a second for the gap down to close......
Delete1543 -> 1531
ReplyDeleteIf the YRCW breakout was for real then $8.2ish holds. Good entry point for traders in my opinion.
ReplyDeleteI've got cash ready to go to work if $8.2ish does give way. On the premise trader goblins are sure to squeeze the cheese outta any new longs.
Deletealmost always a good strategy. let's see...$8.2 is here.
Deletei was able to pick up a whopping 500 shares at $8.2.
DeleteWhat's the point of adding 500 shares when you own 50,000 shares?
DeleteLunch.
Delete10 x $4,000 = $40k
DeleteIsrael - Wonder if Nietenyahoo plans to announce another settlement expansion as Obama leaves Israel?
ReplyDeleteSo, Cyprus' strategy to head off a bank run involves keeping the banks closed? Kinda seems like that....
ReplyDeletenothing calms the public's fears more than not being able to get their money.
DeleteLOL!
DeleteOT: humor
ReplyDeletehttp://img.ly/tx0F
Reminds me of the new video ATM interface in the works that's gonna replace US teller service.
DeleteSLB, do not like yesterday's comments.
ReplyDeleteSchlumberger said in a presentation for investors Monday North American activity is coming in below expectations.
Long 73.23
DeleteI think we have witnessed a genuine breakout in XCO off the double bottom on the 2-year chart. Used today's pullback to buy 12 contracts of January 2015 $7 calls at $1.75.
ReplyDeleteI agree with you. GL on trade
Deletei like that trade, just don't like options.
DeleteStrange to see coal and NG companies down today with NG prices up!
ReplyDeleteyou clearly haven't been watching them for the past month, quarter, year! it's all good though. it's just setting the stage for a major move higher when no one expects it.
DeleteWhat's a reasonable P/E for an energy company?
DeleteLots of variables here. Majors with not a superlong reserve life like XOM tend to trade at single-digit P/E's as people worry about where they are going to keep getting oil to keep their earnings up. Ones with huge reserves like SU's 50 year one, trade more likfe industrials and in-line with market P/E's. Small and mid-caps and sometimes large caps tend to trade on a P/CF or P/NAV basis. P/CF are generally between 3 and 5. NAV traders are generally on a 1:1 basis (sometimes 1P, sometimes 2P). Of course, this all varies based on expected energy prices, hedging, growth prospects, yield, etc.
DeleteReptile dysfunction....
ReplyDeletehttp://allstarcharts.com/takeaways-from-chris-verrone-presentation/
ReplyDelete"When talking about this recent move in the Nikkei, Verrone showed a plot graph comparing previous rallies in the Nikkei throughout history. And although everyone is in awe right now with what’s happening in Japan, the graph showed how normal this recent move has been. In fact, when compared to the up move between 2003-2007, this is really nothing. It’s not even close. Also he pointed out that he believes every single wall street desk missed this move. So there are still plenty of potential buyers out there that have not participated."
I completely agree with this just as I agree that the move in the Yen is basically a blip on the screen in the context of the move over the past 40 years. I wouldn't be looking to trade counter these moves but only looking to go along with the trends on pullbacks. This is no different than the nat gas market in my opinion and was the reason why I was trying to get long UGAZ when it was around $3.20. The lesson I learned from trading that is pretty clear: you need to buy in pieces over a couple of weeks...
AUMN - Should we buy this thing if it actually goes to $2.20?
ReplyDeleteCyprus - Bank deposit vote plan rejected.
ReplyDeleteNow we'll see if this Cyprus BS is the cause of the pullback or just a typical excuse.
DeleteMarket poops more often than a duck, every 15 minutes....
DeleteIs anyone looking at TCK?
ReplyDeleteYeah down in the dumps
DeleteSLB out 73.70
Broker PO lowered to C$39 Feb/8, currently is US$43, P/E seems kinda high though?
DeleteFeb/8 - "Near term met coal price outlook supports Buy rating."
Dunno....
PACB
ReplyDeleteDuncan yo-yo, LOL.... What isn't a yo-yo, and why so many? This sucks.
DeleteJust realized I was able to fill some YRCW last week at 6.07 in my youngest sons custodial. Nice surprise.
ReplyDeletenice. anyone see the 8-k today? i've seen some companies respond to recent trading and some not so i am not able to really take anything away from it.
Delete"YRC Worldwide Inc. is not aware of any specific developments to which the recent sharp increase in its stock trading volume and price would be attributable."
"not aware of any specific developments"
DeleteThis same message brought a great deal of attention to IMH several months ago. The selling began with earnings and now the "unexplained" gap up is closed.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/impac-mortgage-holdings-inc-announces-210600301.html
Delete"Impac Mortgage Holdings, Inc. (NYSE MKT: IMH), a Maryland corporation, or the “Company,” announced today that the NYSE MKT notified the Company today about unusual trading activity in its stock, and the NYSE MKT requested the Company to respond by press release to the unusual activity. The Company's general policy is not to comment on market rumors or speculation including unusual market activity."
My broker has a buy assigned to all but one of the trucking companies(Conway), no rating for YRCW of course, such analysis might require some degree of thought.
DeleteI can hear sucking sounds as Russian money launders line up to withdraw their money out of Europe. What were they thinking, surprised they're still there and question if they really are.
ReplyDeleteWhat a pooch screw.....
Good point, CP! I need to check if I have any of my laundered money in Europe and get it out of there!
DeleteA deposit tax....the DUMBEST IDEA EVER. Unless your goal is to collapse the banks.
Delete"DUMBEST IDEA EVER."
DeleteYeah, weak plan concocted by a gaggle of bozos, trying to steal money. They could've just looked the other way like US regulators did as MF Global went belly up.
Robot flipped short at 1540
ReplyDeleteADBE - Earnings beat.
TA - Dang, just like YRCW
ReplyDeleteMr. Brandt has a few observations concerning copper:
ReplyDeletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3063-economicCalendar.html?mod=mdc_h_cmgrel
ReplyDeletenice chart
TCK - In the report it says:
ReplyDeletePrice Objective C$39.00 / US$39.00
TA/YRCW- Good find. I wonder what yesterday was really all about.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete