"TA/YRCW- Good find. Well, TA reported earnings yesterday morning and I betcha that there are some folks out there betting on these leveraged plays b/c of the upside potential.
Re the short GDX call, I will say this. My initial 'reaction' to reading Geoff's rhetorical question last Friday ('Could the tide be turning for the "rest of us"?') was a not so pretty picture of 'non-swimmers' drowning in the tide. That's really what it comes down to- in order to play miners, you have to know how to swim.
The fearless leader at the Sista has always hated competition that is right.
Deron is straight swing trading based on technicals and none of the intermarket analysis nonsense, and it works so Deron must go like all the other better than Bill traders.
I'm not sure, but it seemed like we went down on low volume "leaking" both yesterday and today, and up with volume.
I'm not convinced we're entering a correction, but Dr. Copper has my attention. PKX has lost a lot of air, and XPP is back to $50 (200SMA), EWY is at important support? the $KOSPI chart doesn't look so bad, gonna turn up?
GMO - SDL.AX - "Australia's Sundance halted on report of further takeover delay." "Sundance Resources in Talks to Sell Iron Ore Asset Stake"
Where's Hanlong? This isn't likely to be good news for GMO initially, although perhaps if Hanlong fails with SDL then they'll succeed at financing GMO?
Unfortunately $ 3.60-4.00 is a pretty safe bet, drilling rig count has dropped, production flat and demand is increasing, could be better in second half depending upon weather. It would take an early winter or some unexpected supply disruption to reach a $ 4.00 avg. for the year, more likely 3.50-3.75. Hope we are wrong !
evening fellas, no trades, I just don't seem to have any interest in buying/selling anything. I didn't even take my AXL trade.
I need some REIT ideas.
ho hum, if I were going to buy anything tomorrow it would be GOOG - see how it acts, it stopped going down. I suppose I'd rather see another up day but I would have a smaller position with stops below the $801 low from yesterday.
EPHE - phillipines index - it has a pretty big pullback going on right now. It closed just below the 50 day. Would like to see a couple of sideways days and then an update for an entry.
GILD - pulled back to the 20 day but closed above it's low. Need to see the uptreand continue for an entry.
GMO - "China's official Shanghai Securities News on Wednesday reported Hanlong chairman Liu Han and some family members had been detained by authorities but gave no details for the reason."
"Chart Talk - 20 March 2013 - Sentiment suggests too many expect a correction. See the report for the 90-day breakouts and 90-day breakdowns screens with focus charts."
"JEC is set up for a big base breakout (see Market Analysis Comment, 18 March 2013). A decisive move above $54-56 would confirm this pattern and favor an advance to chart resistance near $67 and the pattern target at $77. Key support is $50-47."
CLF remains a weak chart overall (Chart Talk, 21 February 2013) and shows downside risk to $20-19 to as low as the 2008-2009 lows in the $13.75-11.80 area. Rallies that stall below $28 keep the downtrend firmly in place.
HXM - "HXM has broken down from a triangle pattern. This is bearish and the risk is that HXM breaks the 2009 low near $10 ahead of a deeper decline to $8. Rallies that stall below $11.25-11.60 keep the trend bearish."
Feb 27 - "Downgrading to Underperform due to large FCF miss. Homex misses FCF, ex penitentiaries, by P$3.6bn. Lower visibility as HXM decides not to consolidate Chiapas 4Q12 miss on top line, margins and FCF. Read More 12mo PO is $13.56
Aside: Chinese steel firm says it is suffering from overcapacity. Ending of empty city construction, or lull? http://english.cnstock.com/enghome/homecompanies/201303/2518841.htm
How many Stop loss triggers are set in Gold under 1530? Submitted by basketguy (67 comments) on Wed, 03/20/2013 - 11:07 #118323 Markets always punish the masses then resume their trend....
How many are hoping that the 1530ish level holds in Gold? You always see this...Price trying to hold a level..Then SMASH...Price is driven through that level then Springs back to life....
Something tells me we will see them SMASH and when we no longer love the price it will start its fast rise while most watch in amazement...
Seen it happen too many times...An area of support gets crushed then a V bottom and a quick rise...
How many are Hoping gold holds the low 1500 level? Too many for me...So I wait...
at some point the more we see these false breakdowns the less reliable they will come. as people become more aware of the shenanigans going on in the market i think the opportunity to trades these goes away. something to keep a mental tally on. i think there are too many people that consider themselves technical traders / etc that it is becoming harder to trade trends and other technical setups.
ultimately for me it will always come down to understanding the valuation of a business and having a feel for catalysts and how investors will perceive those catalysts. that part is more of a guessing game and is something that is harder to exploit. that coupled with support/resistance technical stuff can be helpful in determining entry / exit points on story stocks.
that chart for NOK looks IDENTICAL to the Nat Gas chart from $3.10 to $3.20ish. It i setting up a bull flag on the monthly chart and it is right above prior resistance which should be support now. If I didn't have all of my money in other stuff right now I would be going all in on NOK right now. very low risk trade. Stop out on a close below $3.3
given how good NOK looks right now I think its best to switch out of BIDU and into NOK right here. I think NOK can go to $5 in the next few months while BIDU won't get the same 50% return. I sold my BIDU at $85.7 and moved it into NOK at $3.42.
I have slowly been riding XHB higher. Not flashy, but has been steady. With reports like those we get from Mark I believe it goes much higher by year end.
good luck PZ..I'd give it some room on the stop but as long as it holds above $3.25 it sure looks like a buy. $3.39 was the high from late August which is why this $3.4 level makes this so compelling. $3.28 was the low from two days ago which appears to have stopped out a lot of people.
maybe but with this one it seems it's best to buy on low volume and sell on high. as it moves higher liquidity will come back into this stock. happens pretty much all of the time in left for dead stocks. people are scared by low volumes yet it's counter intuitive.
March 20 (Bloomberg) -- Los Angeles will become the biggest U.S. city to abandon coal-fueled electricity after the taxpayer- owned utility said it will support renewable sources, boost energy efficiency and build a new natural-gas fired plant.
The city’s Department of Water and Power, the nation’s largest municipal-owned utility, will phase out the electricity it imports from the Navajo Generating Station in Arizona and Intermountain Power in Utah, according to a statement yesterday. The two coal plants provide 39 percent of the city’s power.
“The era of coal is over,” Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said in a statement. “By divesting from coal and investing in renewable energy and energy efficiency, we reduce our carbon footprint and set a precedent for the national power market.”
Los Angeles, the nation’s second-most populous metropolitan area after New York, has cut greenhouse-gas emissions by more than 28 percent from 1990 levels, which it says is more than any other major U.S. city. Coal releases twice the carbon dioxide as natural gas per megawatt of power produced, and climate advocates have seized on phasing out its use as the necessary first step in addressing global warming.
I can take you out to West Tx., to a place where they still are venting tons of the stuff into the atmosphere, or at least they have been, for a very long time.
although i did listen to the charlie rose interview with jeremy grantham this past week which makes me want to buy FSLR and WFR hand over fist. he basically said that the cost of solar has gotten very competitive.
Isn't it grand how politicians continuously impose their ideas and value system on the general public instead of allowing the market to freely operate? A neighbor decided to buy a giant truck for his farm a few years back instead of something more practical simply b/c he could get a subsidy for buying the larger vehicle.
I'm wondering how long natural gas development in the US has been stymied by that same political process?
think about the impact that nat gas and electric powered everything will have on companies like YRCW, which has a huge gas bill every year. YRC announced a plan to test out nat gas vehicles recently. and they're looking into electric powered trucks.
all of this makes me very skeptical of energy companies going forward. i think the price of oil is suggesting that the bull market in energy may be in its latter stages. i don't follow energy close enough to know for sure but its a thought i've had for the past 6 months or so.
"the bull market in energy may be in its latter stages."
Maybe I'm missing something, then how does this justify NG ripping to $8? Our boots on the ground contact doesn't control the market but he does have an handle on how much stuff is coming out of the wells. My guess is they're swimming in it, actually they have just been throwing it away for decades but now maybe politicians have received their marching orders from special interest groups?
Electric powered trucks, yeah, sure. Wink,wink! Let's get those Boeing control system backup batteries working first, then maybe we can talk about the energy required to push an 18 wheeler at 55mph.
I sure hope those batteries are cheap, b/c I'm gonna need a huge one just to run my heat pump off of on those cold winter nights. This thing costs about 50% to run as opposed to resistive heating but it's still pretty dang energy hungry. Maybe we should just collect a little more of that NG that's still just being vented to atmosphere and call it energy conservation?
Okay, feel free to send me one of those batteries that can pump out enough power to run my "flashlight" and doesn't have the footprint of a football field.
A battery powered 787, that really would be quite an accomplishment considering they couldn't safely accomplish the feat using nuclear power due to the weight of the concrete/lead shielding required.
Otherwise, a thimble full of uranium would push a car over 100k miles.
by the way, the bid sizes on YRCW look fake. i've seen a bid size of 100 shares for the past hour and orders of 500 to a few thousand shares go through at the bid and the bid size/price doesn't budge. it's not always true but generally this tells me that there is accumulation going on....
Mt. Hope is a pure play, not many deposits on earth as clean, copper is really hard to remove from moly though, and is considered a contaminant. Been meaning to look into the Hope copper content. Most moly produced elsewhere comes from byproduct.
GMO also has a second property that could be restarted as well, was operational but shut down several years back due to falling prices.
Another important subject to watch involves the roaster facility. Hopefully it's not canceled, on site roasting is a key aspect.
Something was said about maybe Glencore might take an interest in the Sundance iron ore project, the entire thing came about really when Chinese steel producers were getting gouged and decided to go looking for their own sources. Well, now their steel producers are concerned they have too much capacity. I wonder if this overcapacity has something to do with US becoming the cheapest place on earth to produce steel by using the gas reduction method?
Birch Mountain was a pure play also, on limestone (which is used by the oil sands companies in the region). Here's a reasonable summary of wtf happened to an o/w killer investment: http://jimymac.blogs.com/shareholdersforjustice/2011/02/birch-mountain-resources-an-asset-even-warren-buffet-could-have-loved-.html
Yes, the financing is certainly an issue for GMO, no doubt about it. There's one hell of a lot of very good moly in the mountain but already there's plenty of byproduct in the market due to byproduct. This is the real reason I gave up on GMO, the market has more moly supply than what's needed. This led me to question if Hanlong might back out, but don't forget PKX is a partner as well, but I think it's more of a strategic partnership then anything else, just to keep their foot in the door.
Mt Hope isn't a new discovery at all, it's been an WIP for decades. China doesn't want it, is almost unbelievable to me, even if they have to wait 100yrs it's price will only be higher.
Everything's relative, even the length of our skirts?
Here's what I learned from Birch Mountain (and I'll apply it to the miners).
Price, price, price. Why is it trading at this price? Miners have sold off -50% in six months. A few of the sales are by weak hands (no doubt), but we're talking tens of millions of shares, so obviously institutions are involved. Are these funds managed by idiots, as suggested by a few traders who shall remain unnamed, or have miners sold off for good reason? Landry recently said it best: Would you rather look smart, or be successful?
Actually, it's kind of hard to look smart when losing money, although Hussman has it down to an art.
What bothers me is this> with the possible exception of kaimu (who seems to buy his miners when they're just holes in the ground), no one at the sister site can possibly be in the green on any position opened (and held) within the past three years. If you read their comments, however, it's as if the rest of the world is ----ing nuts.
Gold 'should' be at 2500, miners are about to soar, and the rest of us are crazy to be holding worthless cash. Yo, bro. I can buy twice as many miners today with the cash.
I was losing money, which is why I gtfo! Since, prices have fallen from there considerably.
SVM experienced a 15% smackdown the day after I bought my first tranch...... Great timing, huh, just like my experience with BAC so many years ago now.
Peeeeople! Them miners are DOWN! Down in the ground, yo. Do I here an Amen? (Amen, brother!). Hallelujah! Get us the ---- away from them miners, Amen? (Amen!) Don't you be listenin' to the Prince of Lies now, y' hear? (Deliver us!) No, no, NO! We trust in price, yo. The price is always right, bruthas! (Amen!)
Deron's Daily ETF Analysis Submitted by ovidet (51 comments) on Wed, 03/20/2013 - 15:29 #118326 Anyone knows what happened to Deron's Daily ETF Analysis? I found his analysis pretty informative and convenient to read it on Bill's blog.
Re: Deron's Daily ETF Analysis Submitted by Jack Senett (416 comments) on Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:50 #118329 (in reply to #118326) Deron's ETF analysis is no longer appearing on the Cara Community blog.
'The impressive, long-term uptrend in gold (from 2005 to 2011) appears to be reaching an end. Since forming an all-time high in September 2011, SPDR Gold Trust ($GLD), a popular ETF proxy for the spot gold commodity, has merely been oscillating in a sideways range. However, it appears that a definitive move lower is on the horizon in the coming weeks.
'On the weekly chart of $GLD below, notice that the ETF attempted to break out above key horizontal price resistance in October 2012, but was unable to do so. As such, $GLD formed a significant "lower high" on its long-term chart. Nevertheless, there's still a major base of horizontal price support around the $150 level:
'The next near-term move in $GLD could be a bounce into resistance in the $158 to $160 range. In this area, there is new resistance of the prior lows from December 2012 and January 2013, as well as resistance of the 10-week moving average (roughly the same as the 50-day moving average) and the 40-week moving average (approximately equal to the 200-day moving average).
'If $GLD bounces to this level and stalls, it will form a second significant "lower high." This would be bearish and could easily lead to a breakdown below major support at the $150 area on the next move down.
'Another possible scenario for $GLD is that it fails to bounce much higher and simply breaks below its four-week base of support (below $150) without first forming another lower high.
'Regardless of how $GLD plays out, we have added this precious metal ETF to our internal watchlist as a potential short sale entry in the coming weeks (traders with non-marginable cash accounts could buy an inversely correlated short ETF of gold instead).
'A short sale entry into $GLD would be based on whichever of the two scenarios occur first: a bounce to the $158 to $160 area that stalls OR a breakdown below the $150 support level that subsequently bounces into resistance. As always, we will give our Wagner Daily newsletter subscribers a heads up with our exact entry, stop, and target prices if we add this swing trade setup to our" official" watchlist. But for now, we are waiting to see how the next near-term move plays out.
'As a reminder, we never sell short into strength. So, even if $GLD bounces into resistance of the $158 to $160 level, our trading rules are such that we then must wait for the first big gap down or significant down day that follows. Entering a short position while a stock or ETF is still rallying has a very high risk of getting your stop run. The much lower-risk entry point is waiting for the price to start heading back down, thereby immediately putting the odds in your favor.'
I joined you guys on TVIX today at 3.77. I suspect I'll be out of that first thing in the morning.
Also bot a small position in CF at 197.29, I have a stop in place around 192 ish.
Tomorrow should be interesting but what I'm finally hearing now is that there's simply no place for all this money to go.
With that in mind, I'm going to look at those puts in FXY again. The implied volatility for the puts at or near 101 strike for Jan14 are less than 13% with the wide two ways. The Jan14 100 strike puts are 3.30 / 3.70 with 3.60 as the last trade so I'm going to try and pick up 3 puts tomorrow for less than 3.90.
AXL, up another 2.3% today without me onboard.
WFR - anyone taking a bite here?
YRCW - I'm convinced. On the weekly chart it just has a little bull snort with some RSI muscle. I'll start off with 100 shares tomorrow just to keep an eye on it.
TBT - this is one of my long term holdings that I just keep selling covered calls against. If I just think about what buddy Ben said, I don't see how this goes much higher anytime soon. What am I missing? I'm waiting to see if yesterday's higher low was it. If so it should at least pop up to 69+ for a bit and I'll try to sell some April 72 or 73 strike calls against it.
One more thing, what's the best housing play right now for an investment? Preferable something I can sell covered calls with. XHB, PHM, DHI, USG, MHW, or maybe even BAC or WFC?
At work we talked about buying USG after the storm flooded the northeast, shoulda woulda coulda
"TA/YRCW- Good find. Well, TA reported earnings yesterday morning and I betcha that there are some folks out there betting on these leveraged plays b/c of the upside potential.
ReplyDelete2nd - When are you gonna finish ironing your ensemble? ;)
ReplyDeleteI thought about rewriting the lead post, but I like it just the way it is.
DeleteHave you all noticed we no longer see Deron's posts on the sister site? Is it merely a coincidence that he's now looking for a short setup on GLD?
ReplyDeleteI don't believe in coincidences.
DeleteKeith McCullough-
DeleteGoldman joins the @Hedgeye call to short the miners $GDX today - they are broken w/ #StrongDollar $BHP $FCX
2nd- Maybe this is a bottom? I'd go TCK/GMO/X instead, but they will all go together.
I was looking at both TCK and X right after reading your earlier comment re TCK.
DeleteYou know me. I prefer playing a dead cat bounce to opening a short.
DeleteMe too.
DeleteRe the short GDX call, I will say this. My initial 'reaction' to reading Geoff's rhetorical question last Friday ('Could the tide be turning for the "rest of us"?') was a not so pretty picture of 'non-swimmers' drowning in the tide. That's really what it comes down to- in order to play miners, you have to know how to swim.
DeleteThe fearless leader at the Sista has always hated competition that is right.
DeleteDeron is straight swing trading based on technicals and none of the intermarket analysis nonsense, and it works so Deron must go like all the other better than Bill traders.
Will the real market reaction to Cyprus please stand up? It wasn't Monday, and it sure as hell wasn't Tuesday.
ReplyDeleteWhen the real reaction shows up, the market will throw at least one fastball.
DeleteI'm not sure, but it seemed like we went down on low volume "leaking" both yesterday and today, and up with volume.
DeleteI'm not convinced we're entering a correction, but Dr. Copper has my attention. PKX has lost a lot of air, and XPP is back to $50 (200SMA), EWY is at important support? the $KOSPI chart doesn't look so bad, gonna turn up?
GMO - SDL.AX - "Australia's Sundance halted on report of further takeover delay." "Sundance Resources in Talks to Sell Iron Ore Asset Stake"
ReplyDeleteWhere's Hanlong? This isn't likely to be good news for GMO initially, although perhaps if Hanlong fails with SDL then they'll succeed at financing GMO?
DEER - Keeps on sliding.....
ReplyDeleteAMYZF - Down a penny today, -35%....
ReplyDeleteNatty 2013 forecast on my request from MOG...
ReplyDeleteUnfortunately $ 3.60-4.00 is a pretty safe bet, drilling rig count has dropped, production flat and demand is increasing, could be better in second half depending upon weather. It would take an early winter or some unexpected supply disruption to reach a $ 4.00 avg. for the year, more likely 3.50-3.75. Hope we are wrong !
In my mind, a listing of fundamentally important attributes of any legitimate energy supply must include abundance.
DeleteGLNG/GASS/WPRT/CLNE/FSYS/HEK.....???
Awesome, I'm getting one of these....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.amazon.com/CTA-Digital-iPotty-Activity-Seat/dp/B00B3G8UGQ/ref=tsm_1_fb_s_amzn_mjl1ml
evening fellas, no trades, I just don't seem to have any interest in buying/selling anything. I didn't even take my AXL trade.
ReplyDeleteI need some REIT ideas.
ho hum, if I were going to buy anything tomorrow it would be
GOOG - see how it acts, it stopped going down. I suppose I'd rather see another up day but I would have a smaller position with stops below the $801 low from yesterday.
EPHE - phillipines index - it has a pretty big pullback going on right now. It closed just below the 50 day. Would like to see a couple of sideways days and then an update for an entry.
GILD - pulled back to the 20 day but closed above it's low. Need to see the uptreand continue for an entry.
GMO - "China's official Shanghai Securities News on Wednesday reported Hanlong chairman Liu Han and some family members had been detained by authorities but gave no details for the reason."
ReplyDelete50% of all garbage trucks sold in US are now running on Natty?
ReplyDelete"Chinese private firm invests big in US natural gas stations"
ReplyDeleteENN Group Co Ltd.
Good morning.
ReplyDeleteOhayō gozaimasu!
Delete"Chart Talk - 20 March 2013 - Sentiment suggests too many expect a correction. See the report for the 90-day breakouts and 90-day breakdowns screens with focus charts."
X @ 19.41
ReplyDeleteTCK @ 27.97
SLW @ 30.30
GDXJ @ 16.79
COL - Where's that sequestration now, eh?
ReplyDeleteOMPI - Taking 1/3 off here.....
ReplyDeleteTA - Still running, what if an investment firm comes along and wipes our their debt in return for TA becoming their NG distributor?
ReplyDelete90-day breakouts & breakdowns (Bloomberg tickers)
ReplyDeleteFor 19-Mar-2013, 15 stocks triggered 90-day breakouts – ABC, AXS, CTAS,
CVS, DEO, DFS, JEC, LCC, MGA, PBCT, PDCO, PRE, QNST, RLGY and S.
For 19-Mar-2013, 18 stocks triggered 90-day breakdowns – CCL, CHL, CLF,
EW, GEOB MM, HXM, LLL CN, LULU, NBG, SVNT, TCK, TCK/B CN, TX, VALE,
VALE/P, WALMEXV MM, WLT and X.
Focus charts
90-day breakouts: AXS, JEC, PRE and LCC – pages 3 - 4
90-day breakdowns: CLF, HXM, LULU, TCK and VALE/P – pages 5 - 7
"JEC is set up for a big base breakout (see
ReplyDeleteMarket Analysis Comment, 18 March
2013). A decisive move above $54-56
would confirm this pattern and favor an
advance to chart resistance near $67 and
the pattern target at $77. Key support is
$50-47."
CLF remains a weak chart overall (Chart
DeleteTalk, 21 February 2013) and shows
downside risk to $20-19 to as low as the
2008-2009 lows in the $13.75-11.80 area.
Rallies that stall below $28 keep the
downtrend firmly in place.
TCK off @ 28.34...
ReplyDeleteCigar smoke is rough on fine fabrics. ;)
DeleteDidn't you buy some TCK at some point and sock it away for the lil-guy's account?
DeleteMCP - Potential bounce play? Looks broken, to me.
ReplyDeleteBIDU looks most excellent. NOK does too.
ReplyDeleteGotta have faith
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu3VTngm1F0
yeah i went there.
Agree on BIDU, needs to hold $84.90 Thus, I have a stink bid @ $84.20 to double my position and do my part in helping to carry the load.
DeleteAgree on BIDU, needs to hold $84.90 Thus, I have a stink bid @ $84.20 to double my position and do my part in helping to carry the load.
DeleteBTW - Good morning, Garth! "most excellent"
DeleteHXM - "HXM has broken down from a triangle
ReplyDeletepattern. This is bearish and the risk is
that HXM breaks the 2009 low near $10
ahead of a deeper decline to $8. Rallies
that stall below $11.25-11.60 keep the
trend bearish."
Feb 27 - "Downgrading to Underperform due to large FCF miss. Homex misses FCF, ex penitentiaries, by P$3.6bn. Lower visibility as HXM decides not to consolidate Chiapas 4Q12 miss on top line, margins and FCF. Read More
Delete12mo PO is $13.56
Aside: Chinese steel firm says it is suffering from overcapacity. Ending of empty city construction, or lull?
http://english.cnstock.com/enghome/homecompanies/201303/2518841.htm
http://stocktwits.com/message/12637166
ReplyDeleteinteresting chart.
GDXJ off @ 16.83.
ReplyDeleteSLW off @ 16.26.
X off @ 19.35.
whoa! you sold way too low on SLW...
DeleteThat's where SLW will end up before the carnage is over.
DeleteIf eurotrash bankers do "blow up" soon, should we view that as an opportunity to mix our portfolios with the taint of European banks?
ReplyDeleteHXM - "09:33AM Homex downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman theflyonthewall.com
Total for the day> +41.86. wtf.
ReplyDeletedont forget those pesky commissions!
DeleteMy numbers are ALWAYS net of commissions, bro.
DeleteYou guys still pay commissions?
Deleteright on. is mental anguish for 2 hours worth $20.93 per hour?
DeleteI should have bought TCK and left it at that.
DeleteI always enjoyed basketguy's take on things.
ReplyDeleteHow many Stop loss triggers are set in Gold under 1530?
Submitted by basketguy (67 comments) on Wed, 03/20/2013 - 11:07 #118323
Markets always punish the masses then resume their trend....
How many are hoping that the 1530ish level holds in Gold? You always see this...Price trying to hold a level..Then SMASH...Price is driven through that level then Springs back to life....
Something tells me we will see them SMASH and when we no longer love the price it will start its fast rise while most watch in amazement...
Seen it happen too many times...An area of support gets crushed then a V bottom and a quick rise...
How many are Hoping gold holds the low 1500 level? Too many for me...So I wait...
I like it too, was kinda thinking $1,000 gold.....
DeleteJust pulled that # out of my azz, BTW.....
Deleteat some point the more we see these false breakdowns the less reliable they will come. as people become more aware of the shenanigans going on in the market i think the opportunity to trades these goes away. something to keep a mental tally on. i think there are too many people that consider themselves technical traders / etc that it is becoming harder to trade trends and other technical setups.
Deleteultimately for me it will always come down to understanding the valuation of a business and having a feel for catalysts and how investors will perceive those catalysts. that part is more of a guessing game and is something that is harder to exploit. that coupled with support/resistance technical stuff can be helpful in determining entry / exit points on story stocks.
tvix @3.77
ReplyDeleteGV - Is this gonna be a lower high?
ReplyDeletethat chart for NOK looks IDENTICAL to the Nat Gas chart from $3.10 to $3.20ish. It i setting up a bull flag on the monthly chart and it is right above prior resistance which should be support now. If I didn't have all of my money in other stuff right now I would be going all in on NOK right now. very low risk trade. Stop out on a close below $3.3
ReplyDeleteI can make a fundamental case for NOK being worth $6 to $7 right now. It's all about Nokia Siemens Network.
Deletestopped out from 3.70 recently....worth a second look maybe
Deletegiven how good NOK looks right now I think its best to switch out of BIDU and into NOK right here. I think NOK can go to $5 in the next few months while BIDU won't get the same 50% return. I sold my BIDU at $85.7 and moved it into NOK at $3.42.
DeleteI have slowly been riding XHB higher. Not flashy, but has been steady. With reports like those we get from Mark I believe it goes much higher by year end.
ReplyDeleteI came across a plumbing fixture manufacturer ticker recently that was really having a nice rally. Forgot which one it was.
DeleteRXN - They own Zurn now.
Delete1557 - Need to retake this level, Cyprus meets with Russia today concerning a trade deal?
ReplyDeleteTVIX @ 3.77x..
ReplyDeletePz- You and I think alike, bro. I only caught your earlier comment just now.
Delete2nd - pick up some NOK for a swing trade. I know it's not your style but the setup is about as good as it gets.
DeleteOK, Playing along with NOK. Picked up the 2000 shares i stopped on at about that same price in @ 3.41.
Deletegood luck PZ..I'd give it some room on the stop but as long as it holds above $3.25 it sure looks like a buy. $3.39 was the high from late August which is why this $3.4 level makes this so compelling. $3.28 was the low from two days ago which appears to have stopped out a lot of people.
DeleteClose it on a close below 3.28 then it is. Mental stop. Hard stops have saved me from emotion many times but I will make an exception here.
ReplyDeleteLet's run this market on up, guys....
ReplyDeletecashed out of 25% of TZOO and moved it into NOK at $3.44.
ReplyDeleteVolume is falling off big time on YRCW here today. Wonder if a lower entry is coming?
ReplyDeletemaybe but with this one it seems it's best to buy on low volume and sell on high. as it moves higher liquidity will come back into this stock. happens pretty much all of the time in left for dead stocks. people are scared by low volumes yet it's counter intuitive.
DeleteI will sit on hands. The price is up despite the low volume. Hard for me to swing trade sometimes on these types of stocks.
DeleteMarch 20 (Bloomberg) -- Los Angeles will become the biggest U.S. city to abandon coal-fueled electricity after the taxpayer- owned utility said it will support renewable sources, boost energy efficiency and build a new natural-gas fired plant.
ReplyDeleteThe city’s Department of Water and Power, the nation’s largest municipal-owned utility, will phase out the electricity it imports from the Navajo Generating Station in Arizona and Intermountain Power in Utah, according to a statement yesterday. The two coal plants provide 39 percent of the city’s power.
“The era of coal is over,” Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa said in a statement. “By divesting from coal and investing in renewable energy and energy efficiency, we reduce our carbon footprint and set a precedent for the national power market.”
Los Angeles, the nation’s second-most populous metropolitan area after New York, has cut greenhouse-gas emissions by more than 28 percent from 1990 levels, which it says is more than any other major U.S. city. Coal releases twice the carbon dioxide as natural gas per megawatt of power produced, and climate advocates have seized on phasing out its use as the necessary first step in addressing global warming.
A case where having a butt load of gas makes economic sense.
DeleteI can take you out to West Tx., to a place where they still are venting tons of the stuff into the atmosphere, or at least they have been, for a very long time.
Deletethis could get ugly for them in a hurry if nat gas rips to $8
Deletealthough i did listen to the charlie rose interview with jeremy grantham this past week which makes me want to buy FSLR and WFR hand over fist. he basically said that the cost of solar has gotten very competitive.
DeleteThis announcement may explain SPWR's 7+% move today.
DeleteIsn't it grand how politicians continuously impose their ideas and value system on the general public instead of allowing the market to freely operate? A neighbor decided to buy a giant truck for his farm a few years back instead of something more practical simply b/c he could get a subsidy for buying the larger vehicle.
DeleteI'm wondering how long natural gas development in the US has been stymied by that same political process?
"the cost of solar has gotten very competitive." It's become a tangled web, that's for sure.
Deletethink about the impact that nat gas and electric powered everything will have on companies like YRCW, which has a huge gas bill every year. YRC announced a plan to test out nat gas vehicles recently. and they're looking into electric powered trucks.
ReplyDeleteall of this makes me very skeptical of energy companies going forward. i think the price of oil is suggesting that the bull market in energy may be in its latter stages. i don't follow energy close enough to know for sure but its a thought i've had for the past 6 months or so.
"the bull market in energy may be in its latter stages."
DeleteMaybe I'm missing something, then how does this justify NG ripping to $8? Our boots on the ground contact doesn't control the market but he does have an handle on how much stuff is coming out of the wells. My guess is they're swimming in it, actually they have just been throwing it away for decades but now maybe politicians have received their marching orders from special interest groups?
Electric powered trucks, yeah, sure. Wink,wink! Let's get those Boeing control system backup batteries working first, then maybe we can talk about the energy required to push an 18 wheeler at 55mph.
DeleteI sure hope those batteries are cheap, b/c I'm gonna need a huge one just to run my heat pump off of on those cold winter nights. This thing costs about 50% to run as opposed to resistive heating but it's still pretty dang energy hungry. Maybe we should just collect a little more of that NG that's still just being vented to atmosphere and call it energy conservation?
Imagine how power hungry a 787 is. Your house is a flashlight by comparison.
DeleteA 787 isn't battery powered, is it? No fossil fuel, really, you're shitting me?
DeleteOkay, feel free to send me one of those batteries that can pump out enough power to run my "flashlight" and doesn't have the footprint of a football field.
DeleteA battery powered 787, that really would be quite an accomplishment considering they couldn't safely accomplish the feat using nuclear power due to the weight of the concrete/lead shielding required.
DeleteOtherwise, a thimble full of uranium would push a car over 100k miles.
Them's some super nuclear batteries there, eh?
by the way, the bid sizes on YRCW look fake. i've seen a bid size of 100 shares for the past hour and orders of 500 to a few thousand shares go through at the bid and the bid size/price doesn't budge. it's not always true but generally this tells me that there is accumulation going on....
ReplyDeleteYeah, computer algo magic.
DeleteIsn't it amazing how high a market can go, when nobody trusts it any longer?
ReplyDeleteGMO news hit.
ReplyDeleteThat's me at 2.34.
DeleteAnd 2.25.
DeleteFrom Yahoo message board....
Delete"I just want to break even on my $3.60 cost basis, but I have a feeling its NEVER going to get there in a yr!"
2.20 in Patricia's acct.
DeleteI'll wait a day or two, how sad for longs......
DeleteNow there's a guy who knows how to wait for a fastball.
DeleteWonder if Glencore gets involved? I bet they negotiate less than $15/lb for the product. Last I saw, it was ~$12/lb
DeleteDon't overstay your welcome. There are two things that bother me about GMO-
Delete(a) Their main asset is named Mt. 'Hope.'
(b) The entire company reminds me of Birch Mountain.
'Nuff said.
"(b) The entire company reminds me of Birch Mountain."
DeleteThat's enough reason for me....
If there's a skeleton in my closet, it's ----ing BMD.
DeleteMt. Hope is a pure play, not many deposits on earth as clean, copper is really hard to remove from moly though, and is considered a contaminant. Been meaning to look into the Hope copper content. Most moly produced elsewhere comes from byproduct.
DeleteGMO also has a second property that could be restarted as well, was operational but shut down several years back due to falling prices.
Another important subject to watch involves the roaster facility. Hopefully it's not canceled, on site roasting is a key aspect.
2nd - You'd probably get along with Liu Han though, he wears mink skirts too. ;)
DeleteSomething was said about maybe Glencore might take an interest in the Sundance iron ore project, the entire thing came about really when Chinese steel producers were getting gouged and decided to go looking for their own sources. Well, now their steel producers are concerned they have too much capacity. I wonder if this overcapacity has something to do with US becoming the cheapest place on earth to produce steel by using the gas reduction method?
DeleteI wouldn't want anything to do with Glencore.
Birch Mountain was a pure play also, on limestone (which is used by the oil sands companies in the region). Here's a reasonable summary of wtf happened to an o/w killer investment: http://jimymac.blogs.com/shareholdersforjustice/2011/02/birch-mountain-resources-an-asset-even-warren-buffet-could-have-loved-.html
DeleteSo what went wrong sounds a little like the financing problem GMO is facing.
DeleteI'm OK with mink skirts. You had me for a moment though, when I thought I read mini skirts.
DeleteYes, the financing is certainly an issue for GMO, no doubt about it. There's one hell of a lot of very good moly in the mountain but already there's plenty of byproduct in the market due to byproduct. This is the real reason I gave up on GMO, the market has more moly supply than what's needed. This led me to question if Hanlong might back out, but don't forget PKX is a partner as well, but I think it's more of a strategic partnership then anything else, just to keep their foot in the door.
DeleteMt Hope isn't a new discovery at all, it's been an WIP for decades. China doesn't want it, is almost unbelievable to me, even if they have to wait 100yrs it's price will only be higher.
Everything's relative, even the length of our skirts?
Offed TVIX after hours @ 3.74.
ReplyDeleteRiding the lightning over night
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uebInqG1pJI
I wont. 1000 shares all ready off at 2.50.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Interesting how this one is back to $2.40, not that far really from $3, which it was struggling to maintain PRIOR to the managerial implosion.
ReplyDeleteAs if so many of these equities are just priced so low that it's hard to justify.....
Here's what I learned from Birch Mountain (and I'll apply it to the miners).
DeletePrice, price, price. Why is it trading at this price? Miners have sold off -50% in six months. A few of the sales are by weak hands (no doubt), but we're talking tens of millions of shares, so obviously institutions are involved. Are these funds managed by idiots, as suggested by a few traders who shall remain unnamed, or have miners sold off for good reason? Landry recently said it best: Would you rather look smart, or be successful?
Actually, it's kind of hard to look smart when losing money, although Hussman has it down to an art.
What bothers me is this> with the possible exception of kaimu (who seems to buy his miners when they're just holes in the ground), no one at the sister site can possibly be in the green on any position opened (and held) within the past three years. If you read their comments, however, it's as if the rest of the world is ----ing nuts.
DeleteGold 'should' be at 2500, miners are about to soar, and the rest of us are crazy to be holding worthless cash. Yo, bro. I can buy twice as many miners today with the cash.
DeleteI was losing money, which is why I gtfo! Since, prices have fallen from there considerably.
DeleteSVM experienced a 15% smackdown the day after I bought my first tranch...... Great timing, huh, just like my experience with BAC so many years ago now.
Gun shy, you bet!
"I can buy twice as many miners today with the cash."
DeleteYeah, I still suspect miners and PM's were unjustifiably high, both Bernanke and Ron Paul alluded to this numerous times in round-about ways.
But here, take a look at this article:
Deletehttp://www.edelweissjournal.com/pdfs/EdelweissJournal-012.pdf
Peeeeople! Them miners are DOWN! Down in the ground, yo. Do I here an Amen? (Amen, brother!). Hallelujah! Get us the ---- away from them miners, Amen? (Amen!) Don't you be listenin' to the Prince of Lies now, y' hear? (Deliver us!) No, no, NO! We trust in price, yo. The price is always right, bruthas! (Amen!)
DeleteThat's what Bernanke meant to say, but for political reasons, it wouldn't go over well.
DeleteBen returned from a visit to say, 'I didn't see none of my peoples over there.'
Delete----, man. I'm glad this is for all intents and purposes a closed blog!
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1H2-4O5W64A
DeleteYRCW - PNF target is a hair over $17:
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=YRCW,pepmdanrbr&pnf=y
GMO's downside target was $3....
I Googled 'wtf is happening with miners' and got this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-18/fools-gold-miners-story-what-can-and-will-go-wrong-miners-ten-pictures
SDL.AX/MOL.AX - Both of these Hanlong acquisitions have been putting in new 52wk lows lately.
ReplyDeleteIf Liu Han would just get down with an Afro to go along with the mink skirt, he could turnaround the stock price by Friday.
DeleteLOL..... UUUggggghhh.......
DeleteNow if the sistas would...no, I won't go there...
DeleteHeck, Liu Han's car(limo?) was shot to pieces once, and his friend(driver?) was apparently killed......
DeleteNAT - Bought yet another vessel, now what does that tell you?
ReplyDeleteDeron's Daily ETF Analysis
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by ovidet (51 comments) on Wed, 03/20/2013 - 15:29 #118326
Anyone knows what happened to Deron's Daily ETF Analysis? I found his analysis pretty informative and convenient to read it on Bill's blog.
Re: Deron's Daily ETF Analysis
DeleteSubmitted by Jack Senett (416 comments) on Wed, 03/20/2013 - 20:50 #118329 (in reply to #118326)
Deron's ETF analysis is no longer appearing on the Cara Community blog.
There are no coincidences in the Twilight Zone.
DeleteOdds of a serious decline in GLD just increased significantly, IMO.
Delete'The impressive, long-term uptrend in gold (from 2005 to 2011) appears to be reaching an end. Since forming an all-time high in September 2011, SPDR Gold Trust ($GLD), a popular ETF proxy for the spot gold commodity, has merely been oscillating in a sideways range. However, it appears that a definitive move lower is on the horizon in the coming weeks.
Delete'On the weekly chart of $GLD below, notice that the ETF attempted to break out above key horizontal price resistance in October 2012, but was unable to do so. As such, $GLD formed a significant "lower high" on its long-term chart. Nevertheless, there's still a major base of horizontal price support around the $150 level:
'The next near-term move in $GLD could be a bounce into resistance in the $158 to $160 range. In this area, there is new resistance of the prior lows from December 2012 and January 2013, as well as resistance of the 10-week moving average (roughly the same as the 50-day moving average) and the 40-week moving average (approximately equal to the 200-day moving average).
'If $GLD bounces to this level and stalls, it will form a second significant "lower high." This would be bearish and could easily lead to a breakdown below major support at the $150 area on the next move down.
'Another possible scenario for $GLD is that it fails to bounce much higher and simply breaks below its four-week base of support (below $150) without first forming another lower high.
'Regardless of how $GLD plays out, we have added this precious metal ETF to our internal watchlist as a potential short sale entry in the coming weeks (traders with non-marginable cash accounts could buy an inversely correlated short ETF of gold instead).
'A short sale entry into $GLD would be based on whichever of the two scenarios occur first: a bounce to the $158 to $160 area that stalls OR a breakdown below the $150 support level that subsequently bounces into resistance. As always, we will give our Wagner Daily newsletter subscribers a heads up with our exact entry, stop, and target prices if we add this swing trade setup to our" official" watchlist. But for now, we are waiting to see how the next near-term move plays out.
'As a reminder, we never sell short into strength. So, even if $GLD bounces into resistance of the $158 to $160 level, our trading rules are such that we then must wait for the first big gap down or significant down day that follows. Entering a short position while a stock or ETF is still rallying has a very high risk of getting your stop run. The much lower-risk entry point is waiting for the price to start heading back down, thereby immediately putting the odds in your favor.'
Deron
That's close enough to a 'sharkie moment' for me.
DeleteAt least RBY isn't trading under $2, and AUMN recovered a bit.
DeleteWonder if Deron wore out his welcome?
DeleteWish in one hand, swing trade what you see in the other.
DeleteThe Wizard can't stand competition that wins.
NLY/CIM - Both maintain dividend, no change.
ReplyDeleteORCL - Negative earnings response, HXM's double downgrades resulted in the less pain than ORCL's miss.
ReplyDeleteevening,
ReplyDeleteI joined you guys on TVIX today at 3.77. I suspect I'll be out of that first thing in the morning.
Also bot a small position in CF at 197.29, I have a stop in place around 192 ish.
Tomorrow should be interesting but what I'm finally hearing now is that there's simply no place for all this money to go.
With that in mind, I'm going to look at those puts in FXY again. The implied volatility for the puts at or near 101 strike for Jan14 are less than 13% with the wide two ways. The Jan14 100 strike puts are 3.30 / 3.70 with 3.60 as the last trade so I'm going to try and pick up 3 puts tomorrow for less than 3.90.
AXL, up another 2.3% today without me onboard.
WFR - anyone taking a bite here?
YRCW - I'm convinced. On the weekly chart it just has a little bull snort with some RSI muscle. I'll start off with 100 shares tomorrow just to keep an eye on it.
TBT - this is one of my long term holdings that I just keep selling covered calls against. If I just think about what buddy Ben said, I don't see how this goes much higher anytime soon. What am I missing? I'm waiting to see if yesterday's higher low was it. If so it should at least pop up to 69+ for a bit and I'll try to sell some April 72 or 73 strike calls against it.
One more thing, what's the best housing play right now for an investment? Preferable something I can sell covered calls with.
ReplyDeleteXHB, PHM, DHI, USG, MHW, or maybe even BAC or WFC?
At work we talked about buying USG after the storm flooded the northeast, shoulda woulda coulda