I see a (new) pattern to my recent trades. I open positions at reasonable entry points, but whereas in the past I was rewarded for exiting immediately if the trades moved against me, I am now rewarded if I'm patient enough to sleep on it overnight.
In other words, traders have become more sophisticated, and I've been slow to adapt.
"Our take: Mt Hope financing risk increases significantly We believe Mt Hope financing risk has increased significantly and GMO’s shares will come under pressure as a result. We had anticipated moderate risk of financing delays based on (1) delays with other Hanlong-sponsored financings, (2) weak moly fundamentals and (3) recent macro economic uncertainty driven by the European credit crisis and indications of slower than expected China growth. We now believe financing completion is also at risk. While we forecast positive Mt Hope project economics (2nd quartile moly cash costs at ~$6.50/lb), we are concerned with the project’s ability to attract further financing amidst spot moly prices hitting 3 ½ year lows ($10.75/lb) and our weak moly outlook. We continue to be less constructive on our moly outlook vs. other base metals due to prospects of a surge in new production 2013-16 (i.e. Climax, Sierra Gorda, Mt Hope). With financing suspended, project delays are near certain in our view. However, we note GMO’s $68 mn cash balance (at 12/31/12) should provide a sufficient buffer against our $3 mn per quarter SG&A cash burn rate estimate."
"Our US$/C$3.30/share price objective (PO) is based on a NAV valuation using a 10% discount rate and applying a 0.6x P/NAV multiple. Our 10% discount rate is based on an 8% discount rate base case assumption for a stable producing mining in a mining-friendly jurisdiction, plus a 2% premium reflecting Mt Hope's development risks. We currently use a 0.6-0.9x P/NAV multiple within our base metal company valuations. The low end of the range (0.6x) reflects troubled operations and/or high political risk while the high end reflects relatively stable operations, low political risk and commodity diversification."
baltic dry shippers are rocking today. the charts of EXM and BALT were looking good a couple of weeks ago and were hinting at this kind of move. of course it showed up in the BDI Index after the charts started suggesting a move higher...
Lululemon Athletica Inc. LLC Chief Executive Officer Christine Day said, “The truth of the matter is the only way you can actually test for the issue is to put the pants on and bend over,”
Buying aCanadian smallcap energy dividend payor (RPL.V) on weakness today. It's stock specific because it got so cheap, but results out tonight, so hoping it is a bear raid and not leaked info.
Read the discussion on energy yesterday, but reality is China is growing strongly, Oil usage is still something like 90% transportation related and, even though usage is decreasing in the US, itr is increasing worldwide and natgas demand is increasing as someone posted about L.A. yesterday. Read an article today about the UK might run out of nat gas soon due to a cold winter and the shutdown of coal plants.
By the way, we got rid of coal and started going green in Ontario about 5 years ago and out electricity bills are up about 50% and are projected up another 50% in 5 years. So nice that we did this, but hurts individuals standard of living and business competitiveness. Luckily, our provincial leader got caught spending $800 million of our money to cancel a project and win a key vote, so he lost his job. Hopefully the new girl is better, but she is still a politician (sigh).
Good stuff PZ. I've noticed for the 2nd day in a row on YRCW that some of the sell orders are bigger than the bid yet it doesn't knock it down. that tells me there is someone accumulating. I think there are still some momentum traders that bought in the 9's that are just looking to get out. after the rest of those weak hands bail this thing rockets higher again IMO. We shall see...
Who mentioned the similarities between TA and YRCW? anyway, I was looking at the hourly chart of TA from the initial run (from $4 to $6) on ThinkorSwim and it is indeed almost identical in terms of momentum readings (RSI_EMA) and pullbacks. It took TA a few days to recoup the highs and then it gapped up the next trading day and it went up almost 70% over the next 7 weeks. I think YRCW does the same. I wouldn't be surprised to see the low double digits in a couple of weeks.
obviously the market has to hang in there. If not then I'm just hoping it trades sideways. Stocks that go sideways during market corrections are much more likely to explode after the pullback is over.
Shipper NM up 5% today and now 35% for the year. Baltic Index up similarly. Not sure if people are seeing a better economy or if the increased scrapping is having an effect, but rates still are very low, so it will drive supply out of the market and prices back up.
they all look awesome. If you have free money I would look to buy on weakness. from my own few hours of research BALT is the most tethered to the BDI spot rate. They do charters based on the spot rate. they also have a better balance sheet than most and pay a tiny dividend.
I spent the morning walking outside and did not read today's posts on time. Too bad. BALT has a beautiful cup-shaped 2-year chart, and today it made a small breakout, implying that it is definitely not too late to jump in. I would have opened a position today. Hopefully, tomorrow it won't run too far and I'll be able to buy some shares at a similar price...
sold half my tvix at 3.85. I had a wee bit too much exposure. I'll sleep better tonight, unless we open tomorrow at dow +150.
No other trades. I was busy playing with my trial subscription to bloomberg. It's pretty cool but I certainly don't NEED it for what I do. I'm pretty sure the boss will say no when the trial period ends.
"David - Why would you pay 2% above the closing price after hours?"
Because $4.15 was still under today's high of $4.20, because $4.15 is still dirt cheap comparing where it can be a year from now, because I was buying a very small starter position, because I won't be up bright and early tomorrow to get it at the open when it starts powering up first thing in the morning.
As long as the deferred revs are recurring, that should work. Good timing on the Cyprus trip, those banks need to find unique mechanisms to expedite the deposit process. A two for one option would be helpful....
"Bernanke said he wasn’t concerned about the record high in the DOW because that was in NOMINAL TERMS NOT REAL TERMS TAKING PRICE INFLATION INTO CONSIDERATION."
CP - I was actually referring to the shipping companies that use trucks...all but YRCW were down today and most are down this week except for YRCW. The dry bulk shippers are a different story.
Agreed, there may be an upside reversal coming for trucking companies following a consolidation period that may or may not be brief. These haven't yet met their upside target but came close.
I should check to see what analysts are saying about FDX.
I'm hoping a broken Europe is already priced in, we'll see.....
COV - "COV has a four-year triangle base in place on the breakout above $57. Initial resistance is $70-72 and the big base projects up to $85-86. Key support is $63.50-61.30, but the big base is firmly intact while above $57."
CCK - "CCK is trending higher within a rising channel and broke out from a year-long bullish consolidation pattern on the move above $37-38. Holding above chart and up channel support at $38-37 keeps the pattern bullish with upside potential to $45 and then into the $50-52 area. The May 2011 high is initial resistance at $41.58."
AWAY - "AWAY has year-long base or bottom in place and gapped up on higher volume yesterday. The stock is testing resistance at $32.25-33.50 and closed within the lower end of its range on Thursday, but while above the gap at $31.37-30.77 the pattern is a breakout from a bullish pennant with additional upside favored toward $36-38."
KBH - "KBH is breaking above four-year resistance with confirmation from volume. The move above $20.00-20.65 is putting a base in place for KBH and favors a rally to resistances at the late 2008 and early 2008 highs in the $25-26 and $28-29 areas, respectively. Holding $20 keeps the breakout firmly in place. Additional support is $18-17."
SID - "SID is breaking down from a bearish continuation pattern. While below $4.85- 5.00, the pattern is weak with risk down to $3.25-2.15"
SYK - "Despite its 18% appreciation thus far in 2013, SYK remains our top large cap idea. We discuss our key takeaways from AAOS in more detail inside"
I see a (new) pattern to my recent trades. I open positions at reasonable entry points, but whereas in the past I was rewarded for exiting immediately if the trades moved against me, I am now rewarded if I'm patient enough to sleep on it overnight.
ReplyDeleteIn other words, traders have become more sophisticated, and I've been slow to adapt.
Maybe not sophisticated. Bullish/foolish/amateur? Listening to the 'news'.
DeleteI always know we're near the top when my brother calls and asks me what to do.
That was two days ago.
WFC - Buy, PO $39
ReplyDeleteGMO - Stink bid at $1.21, 50% of Hanlong acquisition price. I'd thought maybe TC would've been green on this news.....
Hopefully Mr. Han isn't found in some alley or floating in a river, shot full of holes....
Anyone who floats in a river in China is dead within 5 minutes. No one's going to waste any bullets.
Delete5000 @ 2.06. If I'd woken up on time I probably would have sold. Such a small position I kinda want to see how this plays out now.
ReplyDeletePO remains $3.30
Delete"Our take: Mt Hope financing risk increases significantly
We believe Mt Hope financing risk has increased significantly and GMO’s shares
will come under pressure as a result. We had anticipated moderate risk of
financing delays based on (1) delays with other Hanlong-sponsored financings,
(2) weak moly fundamentals and (3) recent macro economic uncertainty driven by
the European credit crisis and indications of slower than expected China growth.
We now believe financing completion is also at risk. While we forecast positive Mt
Hope project economics (2nd quartile moly cash costs at ~$6.50/lb), we are
concerned with the project’s ability to attract further financing amidst spot moly
prices hitting 3 ½ year lows ($10.75/lb) and our weak moly outlook. We continue
to be less constructive on our moly outlook vs. other base metals due to prospects
of a surge in new production 2013-16 (i.e. Climax, Sierra Gorda, Mt Hope). With
financing suspended, project delays are near certain in our view. However, we
note GMO’s $68 mn cash balance (at 12/31/12) should provide a sufficient buffer
against our $3 mn per quarter SG&A cash burn rate estimate."
Thanks. The cash on hand is what makes me want to take a shot here.
Delete"Our US$/C$3.30/share price objective (PO) is based on a NAV valuation using a
Delete10% discount rate and applying a 0.6x P/NAV multiple. Our 10% discount rate is
based on an 8% discount rate base case assumption for a stable producing
mining in a mining-friendly jurisdiction, plus a 2% premium reflecting Mt Hope's
development risks. We currently use a 0.6-0.9x P/NAV multiple within our base
metal company valuations. The low end of the range (0.6x) reflects troubled
operations and/or high political risk while the high end reflects relatively stable
operations, low political risk and commodity diversification."
Rare earths were a story to be sold.
DeleteAgree.
DeleteStory to be sold - Yeah, SHZ, fluorite mining, LOL! I got gravel in my britches pondering that one.....
DeleteFind me a phosphorus mine, guys.
GMO- opened @ 2.098, closed @ 2.146. For kicks.
ReplyDeleteMITK is on an all out promotional blitz these days. Also farming out IR to some firm.
ReplyDeleteShould we be short SPX?
ReplyDeleteWhen I look at the chart it has support at 152.60 or so. It depends if you want to front run it and have to cover if it reverses.
DeleteBIDU - Hmm, maybe this one really has bottomed....
ReplyDeleteHXM - GS must be covering....
ReplyDeleteComing soon? The TBTF ETF?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/03/new-etf-tbtf/
TBF....
DeleteWPRT - Looks like bull flag?
ReplyDeleteFSYS - Zoom, zoom, zoom....
ReplyDeleteBIDU and NOK both look solid. They should outperform going forward.
ReplyDeleteoutperform the miners that is...
DeleteI want to add to BIDU, like as in big time..... What do ya think?
DeleteI really like it. BIDU and GOOG have the best business models in the world, bar none. but i like NOK even better in the short term.
Deleteas far as entry point for BIDU it doesn't get much better than right here. Stop out on a close below $84 so you're risking like 4% maybe. bed
Deletebfd that is, not bed. although i am tire.
Deletebaltic dry shippers are rocking today. the charts of EXM and BALT were looking good a couple of weeks ago and were hinting at this kind of move. of course it showed up in the BDI Index after the charts started suggesting a move higher...
ReplyDeleteMark, here's a real man's lumber saw, outdoes the hypoid by a mile:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ebay.com/itm/Old-Vintage-Wright-Saw-B520-20-Reciprocating-Wood-Cutting-Lumber-Late-1950s-/251246284153?pt=US_Chainsaws&hash=item3a7f720d79
Breakout time for BYD...Still holding a position from $6.50. I think this could be a big winner over time as well...
ReplyDeleteoops. failed to see the $7.55 high from several days ago. only natural it hit that and rejected it i guess.
DeleteI'm volunteering for this job.
ReplyDeleteLululemon Athletica Inc. LLC Chief Executive Officer Christine Day said, “The truth of the matter is the only way you can actually test for the issue is to put the pants on and bend over,”
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-21/lululemon-forecast-trails-estimates-on-pulled-transparent-pants.html
http://weknowmemes.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/girls-in-yoga-pants.jpg
DeleteI QUIT!
DeleteMark's chick keeps showing up everywhere.
DeleteBuying aCanadian smallcap energy dividend payor (RPL.V) on weakness today. It's stock specific because it got so cheap, but results out tonight, so hoping it is a bear raid and not leaked info.
ReplyDeleteRead the discussion on energy yesterday, but reality is China is growing strongly, Oil usage is still something like 90% transportation related and, even though usage is decreasing in the US, itr is increasing worldwide and natgas demand is increasing as someone posted about L.A. yesterday. Read an article today about the UK might run out of nat gas soon due to a cold winter and the shutdown of coal plants.
By the way, we got rid of coal and started going green in Ontario about 5 years ago and out electricity bills are up about 50% and are projected up another 50% in 5 years. So nice that we did this, but hurts individuals standard of living and business competitiveness. Luckily, our provincial leader got caught spending $800 million of our money to cancel a project and win a key vote, so he lost his job. Hopefully the new girl is better, but she is still a politician (sigh).
Yeah, hard to accept the UK dumps coal in favor of freezing their azzez off. Asia says thank you very much! NG exporters will probably run for years.
DeleteSeems like money might be leaking back into PM's, don't it?
ReplyDeleteOff the TVIX @ 3.81
ReplyDeleteEvery other stock is up for me today on a down day except XHB
GDX
CEF
NOK
YRCW
Good stuff PZ. I've noticed for the 2nd day in a row on YRCW that some of the sell orders are bigger than the bid yet it doesn't knock it down. that tells me there is someone accumulating. I think there are still some momentum traders that bought in the 9's that are just looking to get out. after the rest of those weak hands bail this thing rockets higher again IMO. We shall see...
DeleteSVU up 10% today as well
DeleteIn classic 2X fashion ole TVIX jumps 9 cents immediately after my sell. PRofit is pofit i guess
DeleteIEP - Sure looks like this one's in trouble.
ReplyDeleteEUFN - Why isn't this thing back to retesting the 200SMA?
ReplyDeleteAlright, I'm fed up with this BS, if the market crashes I'm gonna buy that which always leads the way, banks.
ReplyDeleteWho mentioned the similarities between TA and YRCW? anyway, I was looking at the hourly chart of TA from the initial run (from $4 to $6) on ThinkorSwim and it is indeed almost identical in terms of momentum readings (RSI_EMA) and pullbacks. It took TA a few days to recoup the highs and then it gapped up the next trading day and it went up almost 70% over the next 7 weeks. I think YRCW does the same. I wouldn't be surprised to see the low double digits in a couple of weeks.
ReplyDeleteobviously the market has to hang in there. If not then I'm just hoping it trades sideways. Stocks that go sideways during market corrections are much more likely to explode after the pullback is over.
DeleteNOK is acting quite strong today. I really like how it's trading.
ReplyDeleteBYD is now officially in breakout mode. Let's see how it does now...
ReplyDeleteFMAR - Keeps on leaking. A client filed BK today.
ReplyDeleteHalf off BYD $7.85
ReplyDeleteShipper NM up 5% today and now 35% for the year. Baltic Index up similarly. Not sure if people are seeing a better economy or if the increased scrapping is having an effect, but rates still are very low, so it will drive supply out of the market and prices back up.
ReplyDeletethey all look awesome. If you have free money I would look to buy on weakness. from my own few hours of research BALT is the most tethered to the BDI spot rate. They do charters based on the spot rate. they also have a better balance sheet than most and pay a tiny dividend.
DeleteBIDU - Closed below it's opening price, I can't appreciate that.
ReplyDeleteRobot long 1557, SPX closes below last week's low...
ReplyDeleteI wonder if the robot makes money?
DeleteRobot outperformed last year but this year it's only up 1.2% while the SPX is up 9% according to the figures provided. Whipsaw is killing Robot, LOL
Deletepoor robot. might not meet its retirement goals.
DeletePKX - Big volume day.
ReplyDeleteI spent the morning walking outside and did not read today's posts on time. Too bad. BALT has a beautiful cup-shaped 2-year chart, and today it made a small breakout, implying that it is definitely not too late to jump in. I would have opened a position today. Hopefully, tomorrow it won't run too far and I'll be able to buy some shares at a similar price...
ReplyDeletesold half my tvix at 3.85. I had a wee bit too much exposure. I'll sleep better tonight, unless we open tomorrow at dow +150.
ReplyDeleteNo other trades. I was busy playing with my trial subscription to bloomberg. It's pretty cool but I certainly don't NEED it for what I do. I'm pretty sure the boss will say no when the trial period ends.
HLF - Closed above it's opening price. A $38 close would be quite positive.
ReplyDeleteBought 300 shares of BALT AH at 4.15.
ReplyDeleteDavid - Why would you pay 2% above the closing price after hours?
DeleteFDX - This one gets clobbered, and shipping takes off. What's going on?
ReplyDeleteThere's a gap up right around the same level as 200SMA, will it close?
Deleteall shippers except YRCW were down today from what I can tell. In fact all look like they have topped.
DeleteFRO was up, and BALT too.
DeleteCSCO - Laid an egg as well, apparently, just as CAT has, and cats are mammals.
ReplyDeleteI know someone was pumping CSCO in the media lately, I kept hearing about how well the stock was doing.......
CAT - Even has an H&S pattern in the chart, the warning was there.
DeleteVMW - Looks like bull flag, doesn't it?
ReplyDeleteNUAN - iphone voice recognition sw vendor?
ReplyDelete"21-Mar-13 08:00AM Panasonics New Smart TVs Now Listen and Speak with Nuances Dragon TV Business Wire"
DeleteUmm, didn't Panasonic just announce they were exiting the TV business??????
I didn't know that. They are making the best screens now.
ReplyDeleteLooks like you're right, this article says they're not going to make plasma sets anymore:
Deletehttp://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/afp/130317/panasonic-shrink-tv-business-exit-plasma-report
"David - Why would you pay 2% above the closing price after hours?"
ReplyDeleteBecause $4.15 was still under today's high of $4.20, because $4.15 is still dirt cheap comparing where it can be a year from now, because I was buying a very small starter position, because I won't be up bright and early tomorrow to get it at the open when it starts powering up first thing in the morning.
Liu Han was detained for gambling-related offenses, apparently:
ReplyDelete"The website of the People's Daily, the main newspaper of China's Communist Party, yesterday said Liu had been detained for gambling-related offences.
"Sources said Liu's arrest has something to do with money laundering, like many entrepreneurs, through casinos in Macau," the website said."
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/mining-energy/sundance-in-limbo-after-hanlong-arrest/story-e6frg9df-1226602912544
NKE - Kicked butt, eh?
ReplyDeleteCDY - This coal play gained 20% today:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/cardero-secures-access-coal-transportation-122127375.html
I get GOOG alerts for a various things, MITK being one of them. There new outside IR firm is really cranking it up. Maybe an offering?
ReplyDeleteAre they out of cash, or something? Looks like insiders loaded up in the last few months, are they dumping yet?
DeleteI wonder if Cypriots are rushing to make deposits using Mitek's app?
Cash is OK for a while, but they continue to lose money. last Q their cash balance increased despite another .09 loss. Deferred rev's.
DeleteI shouldn't say this, since it's really inside info, but I'm told Debllo is on a plane right now to present in Cyprus.
As long as the deferred revs are recurring, that should work. Good timing on the Cyprus trip, those banks need to find unique mechanisms to expedite the deposit process. A two for one option would be helpful....
DeleteNSPH - Looks like the momo guys are closing up shop.
ReplyDeleteWell this is just a wonderful admission, huh?:
ReplyDelete"Bernanke said he wasn’t concerned about the record high in the DOW because that was in NOMINAL TERMS NOT REAL TERMS TAKING PRICE INFLATION INTO CONSIDERATION."
"FRO was up, and BALT too."
ReplyDeleteCP - I was actually referring to the shipping companies that use trucks...all but YRCW were down today and most are down this week except for YRCW. The dry bulk shippers are a different story.
Agreed, there may be an upside reversal coming for trucking companies following a consolidation period that may or may not be brief. These haven't yet met their upside target but came close.
DeleteI should check to see what analysts are saying about FDX.
I'm hoping a broken Europe is already priced in, we'll see.....
URA - Chinese Uranium mine strike in progress "for indefinite period".
ReplyDeleteMUX - Closed @ $3, was wondering when I'd see that figure again.
ReplyDeleteMetals don't look all that enthusiastic this morning....
COV - "COV has a four-year triangle base in
ReplyDeleteplace on the breakout above $57. Initial
resistance is $70-72 and the big base
projects up to $85-86. Key support is
$63.50-61.30, but the big base is firmly
intact while above $57."
CCK - "CCK is trending higher within a rising
channel and broke out from a year-long
bullish consolidation pattern on the move
above $37-38. Holding above chart and
up channel support at $38-37 keeps the
pattern bullish with upside potential to
$45 and then into the $50-52 area. The
May 2011 high is initial resistance at
$41.58."
AWAY - "AWAY has year-long base or bottom in
place and gapped up on higher volume
yesterday. The stock is testing resistance
at $32.25-33.50 and closed within the
lower end of its range on Thursday, but
while above the gap at $31.37-30.77 the
pattern is a breakout from a bullish
pennant with additional upside favored
toward $36-38."
KBH - "KBH is breaking above four-year
resistance with confirmation from
volume. The move above $20.00-20.65 is
putting a base in place for KBH and
favors a rally to resistances at the late
2008 and early 2008 highs in the $25-26
and $28-29 areas, respectively. Holding
$20 keeps the breakout firmly in place.
Additional support is $18-17."
SID - "SID is breaking down from a bearish
continuation pattern. While below $4.85-
5.00, the pattern is weak with risk down
to $3.25-2.15"
MU - Raising PO to $13
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteSYK - "Despite its 18% appreciation thus far in 2013, SYK remains our top large cap idea. We discuss our key takeaways from AAOS in more detail inside"
ReplyDelete