"FedEx Corp.: Softer F3Q results lowers bar for Spring program; PO to $120 3/20/2013 6:48 PM
We are lowering our PO to $120 after FDX reported softer F3Q results due to continued mix shift into lower yielding, deferred products in its international Express segment. Reiterate Buy"
"Road Transport/Trucking: Shipper Survey says: Demand sentiment at new highs March 20, 2013"
This doesn't apply so much to all of you as it does to me:
Ritholtz is right. It's been a whole lotta nothing. I haven't done jack for two weeks, and with the exception of great picks like YRCW, neither has the market.
I'm a very tired bull and I'm quite upset with Bernanke for forcing me to resort to gambling with my life savings just so he can rescue some fat cat bankers from their reckless bets.
Eff'n casino! Now I have to go out for some fresh air......
The technical target for a cup with handle pattern is derived by adding the height of the "cup" portion of the pattern to the eventual breakout from the "handle" portion of the pattern.
Hey, I've been trying to track at least one of those! I need an algo just to keep track of these stocks that are being batted around by the algos......, LOL!
Taiwanese manufacturer of LED devices, what could possibly go wrong?
"used primarily for general lighting applications, including street lights and commercial, industrial, and residential lighting, as well as specialty industrial applications, such as ultraviolet (UV) applications, curing of polymers"
This is one that could put the squeeze on CREE, aside from possibly GE/Matsushita/Phillips/etc....
from your lips to God's ears. I'm still waiting on Mark to take out the 20k lot on the ask at $8.50. been there all morning. should be a breeze with his multimillion projects lining up.
Yep, a test of around $8 would help to form a bull flag, as opposed to what looks like at the moment could morph into a bear flag. Let me see if I can scribble out a formula for it, LOL...... ;)
YRCW is getting close to a momentum reading buy on the hourly chart. I think it will coincide with $8.1 to $8.2 re-test. I will be adding more there if it gets there.
"Can you believe this ----? At the same exact time of day following the New York open."
I CAN'T believe this ---- ! Especially the fact that GLD is making steady higher lows and higher highs, but SLV was smacked down today almost to a 1-month low...
BYD's 2-year chart is no match for that of BALT. The latter has a perfect large cup that is already formed, and we are now ripping higher on the right side of the cup. BYD has zig-zags all over the place and I do not see an obvious breakout there...
David - my point is that it's almost always better to sell a breakout than buy it. I don't know what the stats are but it seems to me that this strategy is far more successful than buying them. even if the stock rallies after the breakout the odds are very high you will get a chance to buy it at or slightly below the breakout again.
You are right, TOF. Breakouts almost always get retraced. But that's because we VERY rarely get a large cup-shaped charts, like that of BALT on a 2-year scale or MJNA this summer on a 1-year scale.
Another weird aspect of today's smackdown in silver is that the silver miners (SIL) are flat (thus dismissing today's move as a short-term noise) AND $USD is down big today! So WTF is happening with silver???
Ah, I know -- that's because I bought April calls on it! That's another lesson I am getting from the market gods -- NEVER buy short-term options! That's pure speculation, and the market loves to punish speculators...
David - if you're buying SNE / BALT etc on breakouts or other chart formations then why not do the same with AUMN? it seems to me that you've been successful at trading what you're seeing with the charts. have you examined your trading history to identify things that work for you?
TOF -- I have reduced my position in AUMN significantly at $4.30 -$4.40, when it announced poor production results, and then ETrade sold another large chunk at $2.90. I have now decided to wait for AUMN to clear $3 before buying back in.
The overall lesson -- wait for a PERFECT pitch before swinging, which is something that 2nd_ave is leaning toward as well. A PERFECT pitch is the one where the long-term chart has formed a clear bottom, has started to trend up, AND the fundamentals look awesome going forward. Before, I've been buying the miners just based on my perceived fundamentals, and in the case of AUMN, I was plainly deceived by the management, as they were shamelessly pushing off the production ramp-up date. Moral of the story -- the fundamentals can change, and so I MUST wait for the long-term chart to flatten out and start trending up.
GRPN: *Starbucks to Offer First Promotion Using Groupon; Will Reportedly Offer Gift Cards
I have to say that from a fundamental perspective I think GRPN is a buy longer term. It has a lot of ugly things going on with it but the brand is a lot bigger than people thing in my opinion. I know a lot of people including us that use them.
man i see a lot of similarities between the chart of NOK and the chart of nat gas. i still stick by my thinking that NOK is going to rally hard very soon. even if it gets to $3.1 (below prior resistance) i think the odds are very high it rallies to $5+ in the next 2 to 3 months.
David - for what its worth there are the same momentum divergences on the daily chart for AUMN now as there were prior to its run in late 2011/early 2012.
This sets a nice stage for a large rally in GLD and SLV. In fact, this rally seems to have begun already under the radar, since $USD is higher than it was on March 1, but GLD and SLV are ALSO higher than they were on March 1!
Gimme something under $14.
ReplyDeleteThe target is $120, perhaps the decimal is mislocated (ie: $12.0)?
DeletePNF indicates $24, $copper is $3
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$silver,pepmdanrbr&pnf=y
They'll only pull that crap when David is asleep.
ReplyDeleteVery well could be 2yr handle forming? What is silver H&S target?
DeleteThis agrees with PNF:
"A completion of the massive triangle in Copper would set a target of $2.70"
PC - 12mo PO is $8.13
ReplyDeleteVMW - More like the kids crashed the BMW
ReplyDeleteAGO - Could be $21 by close?
ReplyDeleteNSPH is trading like news is out.
ReplyDeleteShakeout prior to the pole vault?
DeleteSVU up another 8%.....Im out
ReplyDeleteToday: "Don’t just do something, sit there!"
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/03/the-fine-art-of-doing-nothing/
“Do. Or do not. There is no try.” ~ Yoda
I like that.
DeleteCCK - Back testing breakout trend line?
ReplyDeleteBack test complete.
DeleteLEDS...
ReplyDeleteWell then, maybe CVV will join the party. Unless AMAT's beat them to the punch bowl?
DeleteAGO - Probably retests $20.83 soon.
ReplyDeleteAwesome trade on BALT David. Sometimes it pays to pay up afterhours I guess.
ReplyDeleteCCK - PE is barely double digit, no debt? What's a reasonable PE for a packaging manufacturer?
ReplyDeleteRobot - This guy obviously doesn't need a retirement portfolio but at least he had the right idea even though timing sucked?
ReplyDeleteFDX - PO is still $120
ReplyDelete"FedEx Corp.: Softer F3Q results lowers bar for Spring program; PO to $120
3/20/2013 6:48 PM
We are lowering our PO to $120 after FDX reported softer F3Q results due to continued mix shift into lower yielding, deferred products in its international Express segment. Reiterate Buy"
"Road Transport/Trucking: Shipper Survey says: Demand sentiment at new highs
March 20, 2013"
This doesn't apply so much to all of you as it does to me:
ReplyDeleteRitholtz is right. It's been a whole lotta nothing. I haven't done jack for two weeks, and with the exception of great picks like YRCW, neither has the market.
I'm a very tired bull and I'm quite upset with Bernanke for forcing me to resort to gambling with my life savings just so he can rescue some fat cat bankers from their reckless bets.
DeleteEff'n casino! Now I have to go out for some fresh air......
Still LEDS....
ReplyDeletePrice target?
Delete$2.83 (analyst est)/2 is $1.41.......
DeleteThe technical target for a cup with handle pattern is derived by adding the height of the "cup" portion of the pattern to the eventual breakout from the "handle" portion of the pattern.
DeleteLooks like geometric target is ~$1.75
Just a couple of ideas, shooting from the hip....
I would have expected a complex indecipherable formula from you. Thanks for breaking it down to the working version for us mere mortals.
DeleteHere's my plan. I'll buy some when traders who opened at today's highs get scared ----less. Then I'll sell it back to them when it breaks out again.
DeleteI agree....1/1 profit loss initially. Take 1/2 off, set stop at break even. HOPE it goes back to 52 wk high of 4.55 or.....
DeleteHow about I show you a few others....
DeleteASTX
AEIS
ACAS
Fair warning on LEDS...
DeleteIt isn't super liquid. 145000 shares a day average.
Oh yeah, very good point: How about (n + 1)/2 = $1.91?
Delete"a few others...."
DeleteHey, I've been trying to track at least one of those! I need an algo just to keep track of these stocks that are being batted around by the algos......, LOL!
Taiwanese manufacturer of LED devices, what could possibly go wrong?
Delete"used primarily for general lighting applications, including street lights and commercial, industrial, and residential lighting, as well as specialty industrial applications, such as ultraviolet (UV) applications, curing of polymers"
This is one that could put the squeeze on CREE, aside from possibly GE/Matsushita/Phillips/etc....
ACAS - 12mo PO is $13, this is why I passed on this one earlier.
ReplyDeleteYRCW - How about let's just stop acting like monkeys humping footballs and take a position in YRCW before it vaults higher?
ReplyDeletefrom your lips to God's ears. I'm still waiting on Mark to take out the 20k lot on the ask at $8.50. been there all morning. should be a breeze with his multimillion projects lining up.
Deletei'm thinking a test of $8.1 or so is still in the works before it moves higher...if it moves higher.
DeleteI'd like to send Mark to Juarez on a mission to jerk a knot in HXM's rope.
DeleteYep, a test of around $8 would help to form a bull flag, as opposed to what looks like at the moment could morph into a bear flag. Let me see if I can scribble out a formula for it, LOL...... ;)
DeleteAEIS - Emissiometers are the bees knees of precise temperature measurement, there's a bit of voo-doo involved, even.
ReplyDeleteBut they really should not say this, it just sounds too desperate:
"thin-film deposition power conversion systems"
Instead they should just say "solid state"
12mo PO is $18.50 = pass...
DeleteLeading me right back to previous options...
BLAH, BLAH, BLAH.....
DeleteIf they start trending again (trigger) the chart says different. Caveat: They have to trigger.
I also don't know crap about LEDS. It's just a chart to me. A long basing chart.....
Now that's the kind of useful info you won't find on most blogs, which are mainly all talk and no results.
DeleteI figure I can do without LSD, since I've never had any and have done okay without it.
DeleteI think you're confusing LEDS with one of my other trading adventures!
DeleteYRCW is getting close to a momentum reading buy on the hourly chart. I think it will coincide with $8.1 to $8.2 re-test. I will be adding more there if it gets there.
ReplyDelete"Can you believe this ----? At the same exact time of day following the New York open."
ReplyDeleteI CAN'T believe this ---- ! Especially the fact that GLD is making steady higher lows and higher highs, but SLV was smacked down today almost to a 1-month low...
"Awesome trade on BALT David. Sometimes it pays to pay up afterhours I guess."
ReplyDeleteWhen something enters a breakout mode, that's not a time to be picky about 1 or 2 percentage points...
don't tell that to people buying BYD yesterday. it was the reason i was selling.
DeleteBYD's 2-year chart is no match for that of BALT. The latter has a perfect large cup that is already formed, and we are now ripping higher on the right side of the cup. BYD has zig-zags all over the place and I do not see an obvious breakout there...
DeleteDavid - my point is that it's almost always better to sell a breakout than buy it. I don't know what the stats are but it seems to me that this strategy is far more successful than buying them. even if the stock rallies after the breakout the odds are very high you will get a chance to buy it at or slightly below the breakout again.
DeleteYou are right, TOF. Breakouts almost always get retraced. But that's because we VERY rarely get a large cup-shaped charts, like that of BALT on a 2-year scale or MJNA this summer on a 1-year scale.
DeleteCCK - A pullback to $40.10 should lead to $40.70
ReplyDeleteAlright then, 40.20 to 40.80 is even better.....
DeleteAnother weird aspect of today's smackdown in silver is that the silver miners (SIL) are flat (thus dismissing today's move as a short-term noise) AND $USD is down big today! So WTF is happening with silver???
ReplyDeleteAh, I know -- that's because I bought April calls on it! That's another lesson I am getting from the market gods -- NEVER buy short-term options! That's pure speculation, and the market loves to punish speculators...
DeleteDavid - if you're buying SNE / BALT etc on breakouts or other chart formations then why not do the same with AUMN? it seems to me that you've been successful at trading what you're seeing with the charts. have you examined your trading history to identify things that work for you?
DeleteTOF -- I have reduced my position in AUMN significantly at $4.30 -$4.40, when it announced poor production results, and then ETrade sold another large chunk at $2.90. I have now decided to wait for AUMN to clear $3 before buying back in.
DeleteThe overall lesson -- wait for a PERFECT pitch before swinging, which is something that 2nd_ave is leaning toward as well. A PERFECT pitch is the one where the long-term chart has formed a clear bottom, has started to trend up, AND the fundamentals look awesome going forward. Before, I've been buying the miners just based on my perceived fundamentals, and in the case of AUMN, I was plainly deceived by the management, as they were shamelessly pushing off the production ramp-up date. Moral of the story -- the fundamentals can change, and so I MUST wait for the long-term chart to flatten out and start trending up.
GRPN:
ReplyDelete*Starbucks to Offer First Promotion Using Groupon; Will Reportedly Offer Gift Cards
I have to say that from a fundamental perspective I think GRPN is a buy longer term. It has a lot of ugly things going on with it but the brand is a lot bigger than people thing in my opinion. I know a lot of people including us that use them.
Re GLD and SLV. I love this ----. I think it's bullish as hell.
ReplyDeleteWhat's so bullish in SLV greatly lagging GLD over the past few weeks? Shouldn't silver be leading gold during a real bull run?
DeleteI think it's 'fake out to break out.' Sort of like 'break up to make up.'
DeleteI hope you are right...
Deletesentiment is pretty bad. however, the descending triangle on the monthly chart is pretty bearish in my opinion. but everyone sees the same thing.
DeleteYes means no, and no means yes?
DeleteNOK is testing my patience again
ReplyDeleteyep. still forming a base with a low risk stop out point. figures...does well on a bad day and poor on a good day.
Deleteman i see a lot of similarities between the chart of NOK and the chart of nat gas. i still stick by my thinking that NOK is going to rally hard very soon. even if it gets to $3.1 (below prior resistance) i think the odds are very high it rallies to $5+ in the next 2 to 3 months.
DeleteSpeaking of LSD.....
ReplyDeleteGMO - "Sundance suitor's chairman Liu Han detained for harbouring fugitive brother"
Brother accused of committing murder......
http://www.news.com.au/business/companies/sundance-suitors-chairman-liu-han-detained/story-fnda1bsz-1226602949193
In on miners. RYPMX at the close.
ReplyDeletemoved all of my money from BYD into NOK at $3.32.
ReplyDeleteSIL is green despite SLV being down 1.5%??? The miners are definitely seeing something we don't see...
ReplyDeleteYo, I think you'll be a smiling bro on Monday!
DeleteCould it be the volume spike on gold's recent low?
Deletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/02/2.20_GC_daily.jpg
Especially if Russia, the IMF, and Cyprus negotiate a gold-backed bailout? What would Russia do in this situation, if anything?
DeleteCCK - $39.81 low, 80/20 rule in play.
ReplyDeleteDavid - for what its worth there are the same momentum divergences on the daily chart for AUMN now as there were prior to its run in late 2011/early 2012.
ReplyDeleteI hope you are right, TOF, as I have a ton of April $2.50 calls and it would be a shame if they all expire worthless...
DeletePAL - Looks like this one's headed for $1, finally.
ReplyDeleteThe $USD chart definitely seems like it has topped:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=d1
This sets a nice stage for a large rally in GLD and SLV. In fact, this rally seems to have begun already under the radar, since $USD is higher than it was on March 1, but GLD and SLV are ALSO higher than they were on March 1!
BIDU - Hanging in there, pleased it wasn't a bad day.
ReplyDelete