My opinion? There ain't no Cyprus connection.
GDX reversed hard from an opening gap down on March 6 to close +4.2% higher compared with the previous close (even better, it closed +5.3% from the opening low). I think that marked a short-term bottom. That's the entire trade in a nutshell.
How about a Turkish connection, what was today's important phone call from Israel to Turkey all about?
ReplyDeleteWas it to ask Turkey to reconsider recognizing Cyprus' gas field claim?
The last time someone mentioned a Turkish connection was in the Seventies.
DeleteUSA!!!
ReplyDeleteGo BEARS!!!
ReplyDeleteI hate to admit it, but I have no idea what you're talking about!
DeleteMe neither! Mark, nice work on the GMO trade, what do you suppose is going on there?
DeleteThe reason I think there's a "Cyprus" connection is b/c I think the market needs a reason to sell off?
USA beat Costa Rica 1-0 last night in a World Cup qualifying match and the Cal Bears advanced to the 2nd round in the NCAA tourny!!
DeleteGMO- I'll probably blow it, but it sure seemed like an over reaction. It was a nice way to end the week though.
SDL.AX - "the announcement to lift the Voluntary Suspension(trading halt) is anticipated prior to market open on Monday 8 April 2013."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.noodls.com/view/73E3AD758736377C4F2F0EEE488555F4C17A887B
$copper - Maybe this one has turned the corner, hasn't lost ground in three days.
ReplyDeleteI tired NOK @ 3.31 near the close but didn't get it.
ReplyDeleteRats. One down with one to go on Tue.
ReplyDeleteI see the entire board is so devastated by Cal's lost no one else can post.
ReplyDeleteI still can't get over Lehigh not making it.
DeleteAfter all these years I would have thought you would be used to it. Kinda like UCSB for me. Although they were a sweet 16 team when I was there and Brian Shaw was on the team.
DeleteGMO - Sure doesn't seem like much of a haircut for a company that just lost it's development funding, either the stock was already under priced, momo bounce players jumped in and are about to exit, and there's this confusing article, maybe old news otherwise hard to really understand the purpose of the way it's worded:
ReplyDelete"China Detains Man With Same Name As Sichuan Hanlong Chairman
By Bloomberg News - 2013-03-25T02:36:16"
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-25/china-detains-man-with-same-name-as-sichuan-hanlong-chairman.html?cmpid=yhoo
ORCL - Island reversal?
ReplyDeletedown to the 200 DMA. could be a nice long entry here. too big for me...
DeleteNUAN - You guys got an eye peeled on this one?
ReplyDeleteINVN - Testing lower trend line.
ReplyDeleteYou guys seeing a 15.52 print in GDXJ?
ReplyDeleteGDX @ 37.45...
ReplyDeleteTaking blows to the solar plexus.
DeleteWhack! Bam!
Delete---- that, bro. I'm striking back at the shorts.
DeleteNOK gonna test $3.25 looks like. I'm still leaving this position on until it closes below that for more than a day or two.
ReplyDeleteI guess as long as it respects that November consolidation area, $3.30 is an interesting price.
DeleteI'm just not too sure about the fundamental upside.
Wouldn't be surprised if we end up down today as the excitement over Cyprus wears off. Seems like a sell the news type event.
ReplyDelete"As I stated last week, the index is seeking new highs. However, supporting Bill's analysis in the WIR, you can see internal weakness in the index that is pointing towards a decline - probably after price makes new highs."
ReplyDeleteSo is Geoff worried he will suffer the same fate as Deron if he disagrees with Mr. Wizard?
Obviously he is presenting the positive perspective of Bill's analysis, does make me wonder if maybe he doesn't necessarily agree.
DeleteI don't think Centrl Bank's buying of gold is good news, considering their charter is essentially to distribute public wealth to special interest groups using duck-duck-goose algorithm.
What do you guys think of this one, the chart looks interesting, maybe?:
ReplyDeleteRLGY - "The Real Estate Franchise Services segment franchises the Century 21, Coldwell Banker, ERA, Sotheby's International Realty, Coldwell Banker Commercial, and Better Homes and Gardens Real Estate brand names, which offer residential and commercial real estate brokerage, and luxury real estate brokerage services."
"Earnings growth should drive shares in
Delete2013, in our view. We forecast 35% YoY growth in 2013E recurring EBITDA. A
key risk is a secondary offering (IPO lock-ups expire April 8th), but the added
liquidity should be helpful to RLGY shares longer-term. Private equity firms own
~60% of shares and RLGY shares are well above the IPO price of $27. RLGY
shares are also subject to headline risks"
PO is $56
SVM - I'm not sure what's going on with this one, but it keeps testing $4.
ReplyDeleteAdded SLW/GG/GDXJ + added further to GDX near the lows. Closed all positions within the past 5 minutes. Let 'em take the miners down today- I gave as good as I got.
ReplyDeleteNote that GDX closed the gap up obligation from last week.
DeleteAGO - Note the $20.20 has not failed, suggesting $20.80 and then a return to $21.......
ReplyDeleteYRCW: Looks like Mark has almost eaten through the 25k shares that were on the ask at $8.50 on Friday. Only 4800 more shares for him to buy.
ReplyDeleteFMD: looks like a buy to me.
DRL: another junk financial that looks interesting...
GMO - 12mo PO lowered to $2.10
ReplyDelete"General Moly Inc: Lower PO on financing risk. Maintain Underperform
3/21/2013 6:44 PM
We maintain our Underpeform rating on GMO shares with a 36% lower PO following the suspension of financing discussions for GMO's $665 mn term loan needed to finance its $1.3 bn Mt Hope moly project"
Mt. Hope....I think there is a statue of the Trader Wizard on top of Mt. Hope.
DeleteI guess some of the original settlers named this mountain, it's an incredible moly deposit.
DeleteFundamentals matter though, IMO.
"the model suggests that there’s a 15% chance that a year from now, the price of mol will be above 17 dollars per pound, and a 15% chance that it’ll be under 8 USD/lb, an outcome that wouldn’t be too rosy for shares of GMO."
http://molybdos.com/
So there is a 70% chance it will be neither?
DeleteSeems like $8 is coming....... Then maybe it's time to buy some base metals?
DeleteHII - Was that a run, or what? Sheesh!
ReplyDeleteJust when I thought YRCW was holding up ok. WTF Mark...you couldn't break through the $8.50 barrier?
ReplyDeleteSold 1/4 of BYD at $7.69...only have 1/4 of position left.
Dammit Mark, get with the program!
DeleteTOF....Mark is probably shorting YRCW.
DeleteSPX came to within $0.24 of last month's high, then slumped.
DeleteThe Dutch finance minister said that Cyprus could be used as a template moving forward, thus if you hold over 100,000 euro's in any Italy or Spain bank you're likely to lose some portion of your money moving forward?
should've figured...smart money is shorting it.
DeleteOh wait, that was a new higher high it seems. So yeah, naturally shorts jumped on it.
DeleteMarket - Seems to not be an overly enthusiastic day in the markets.
ReplyDeleteBBRY - GS downgrades this one.......
BIDU - Can we assume that China will likely continue to grow near 8% and that this growth will become less dependent on Europe?
ReplyDeleteDRL - Yeah, this one could become an interesting turn-around story, it might not be impossible.
ReplyDeleteWTH though, I don't have any visibility into Puerto Rico, is their GDP highly correlated to the mining industry? I need to perform some DD, obviously...
Now is the time to put all my money in a Cypriot bank!
ReplyDeleteWhat could happen?
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-25/saving-cyprus-means-nobody-safe-as-europe-breaks-more-taboos.html
Seems like unification would involve a structure more like the US system, no telling how much pain is involved in getting there but I'd vote for that as opposed to the cluster f*ck they've been running in Europe.
DeleteThat does make good sense, considering the mandatory haircut is already done.
DeleteNG - Kinda looks like a bear flag formation, feel free to flame me now.....
ReplyDeleteLooks like Bernanke must've fired his money bazooka...
ReplyDeleteFB - And this one undercuts the 200SMA
ReplyDeleteJCPennystock?
ReplyDeletePKX - Going back to the upper 80's?
ReplyDeleteThese guys have no credibility....
ReplyDeleteThe Dutch finance minister retracts his statement about Cyprus acting as a template for Europe.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/03/too-many-expect-correction/
ReplyDelete"When too many investors are looking for a correction, it reflects that selling has already occurred. That implies less supply, less downside pressure, and the potential for pros to be forced back in. It is the Long-only side version of a short squeeze."
Hard to argue with that.
DeleteNUE - Inverse H&S?
ReplyDelete10yr - Assuming the 10yr rate moves back to the mean, prices would need to take a 20% or better haircut?
ReplyDelete