Monday, March 25, 2013
03/25/13 Grazed
RYPMX taken off at the close for a loss of -1.02%, and unfortunately I had 60% of the port riding on that
bet. On the other hand, I did not hesitate to work the remaining 40% on the
opening drop, which I closed at the intraday highs for a +0.7% gain, leaving the
port with a -0.34% dent.
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I kid you not, I had visions of the Indian in the alley behind the restaurant taking shots to the solar plexus when I put the remaining 40% to work.
ReplyDeleteLife's lessons often surface when you least expect it, and in the strangest ways.
DeleteGutsy trade bro.
DeleteKOLD - Why not get long KOLD?
ReplyDeleteGASS - Long this one is basically the same thing, cheap gas is a tailwind for LNG transportation.
DeleteBuck eighty five is your bogey for VELT.
ReplyDeleteLooks like a bull flag formation to my sore eyes.
DeleteENPH was the play on the break of 2 bucks and we were all here talking about it.
ReplyDeleteI'd lost track of it.
DeleteGMO - Hanlong faces deadline today for Sundance:
ReplyDeletehttp://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/bloomberg/SIG=13fco185f/*http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-25/hanlong-faces-deadline-today-for-1-19-billion-sundance-iron-bid.html?cmpid=yhoo
Sundance looks dead, but I look at GMO through wine colored glasses. I bet Canadian or USA funding is the ultimate answer. However, I'll be long gone before that happens. But that's the ST trade.
DeleteYou saw my post yesterday where my broker lowered the tgt to $2.10, just wanted to make sure you know they changed this.
DeleteDEER - PE is 0.09
ReplyDeleteThat's quite some dividend if they're still paying it, 194%?
DeleteOne of these days you will hit RYPMX for a 5 or 6% gain.
ReplyDeleteI'm counting on it!
DeleteSome ideas for what might eventually happen to the FED's balance sheet:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.econbrowser.com/archives/2013/03/whats_going_to.html
UGA - About to fall out of the channel?
ReplyDeletewhen are you cats gonna join me in the YRCW party? i know CC is in on it. come 2015 i don't want to be here saying i told you guys so.
ReplyDeletethat's it, i just jinxed it.
oh i get it. you're all planning for the end of the world. the mayans had the year wrong. it was 2013 not 2012.
DeleteI'm still holding the YRCW that I bought last October. I still see it as high risk, so it is not a large position for me, but I do think the risk/reward is excellent. Just depends on your risk tolerance how much you want to hold as there are still a lot of things that could go wrong.
DeleteI most likely will be holding in 2015 unless it either gets taken out, skyrockets in price or goes bankrupt.
I intend on joining at some point, trying to gather the courage.
DeleteABF is attempting to interfere with YRCW's union concession?
Deletemorning, a couple things look interestng here, as long as I remove the expected CORRECTION from my plan. I suppose I just need to be consistent and let the stops do their thing.
ReplyDeleteEPHE, slow mover, looks like a buy right here with a stop around 37.50 or so,.
ARII - looks like all the RSI and MACD are rolling over with the stock price to me
AXL a buy with a stop around 12.50
Taking the '02 Camry in for maintenance. Catch y'all well after the open.
ReplyDeleteIs that code for something?
Delete"Rick's Cabaret International, Inc. Agrees To Purchase Remaining Interest In New Topless Nightclub In Los Angeles County And Will Now Own 100%
8 minutes ago PR Newswire"
IMAX - If China is crashing, it's not apparent by looking at the IMAX chart.
ReplyDelete"Is that code for something"...
ReplyDeleteOf course. "I'm bored and heading to the titty bar."
I saw him at The Brass Rail last week.
DeleteIf it was, "I've decided to sell the 02 Camry", that would be " I can't take it anymore, and put everything I have in YRCW".
DeleteLast time he went out he ran into someone else's car up in SF, now he heads south instead.
DeleteIt's early for titty bar boys. That has to wait until beer thirty, unless you are total perv.
ReplyDeleteYRCW would be really pissing me off if it weren't for LEDS kicking ass.
AEIS resuming trend?
2nd must be a perv then, saw him coming in door at the rail at 05:30 one morning.
DeleteYo, if you were around to see me coming in the door at 530 in the morning...'nuff said.
Delete2nd, you live in the Bay Area, there must surely be enough great titty bars w/o having to drive to sweaty ol' Texas and the Brass Rail, although CP tells me they have a great breakfast.
DeleteI go to Brass Rail for the beer selection.
DeleteIs that the one in Sunnyvale? LOL!
DeleteI've only had Heidelberg once, it was on tap in one of those hole in the wall Sunnyvale titty bars. Heidelberg is a printing press manufacturer as well, that beer tasted kinda chalky.
DeleteINVN - Maybe starting to lift.
ReplyDeletePKX - I knew they'd gap this one up.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Yeah, POSCO could break down and fork out the cash to get the mine going too, if moly supplies were tight enuff.
ReplyDeleteYellow Mellow
ReplyDeleteYRCW, ok half way back is 7.68 had a bid in at 7.60 filled
time is on my side, yes it is
I'm trying 7.42.
DeleteCiao peeps...(Tom for 2nd.)
good luck Mark. Hope you get that price. $7.6-$7.7 was what i was thinking yesterday (although i was hoping not) just because it's about half of the gains gone. this might be the most volatile stock i've ever held.
Deletei sold my remaining BYD this morning at $8.17. kind of regret not just holding it.
ReplyDeleteLEDS - pulled back to 61.8% retracement level after it peaked 2 weeks ago. Shit almost all of these pull back to the 50% to 61.8% levels after their first move higher. GRPN, ZNGA, TA, CZR, NOK, etc.
ReplyDeleteYeah! I'm up 46% since then. Gotta love those pullbacks.
Deletefrom what i've seen with these stocks the sharper the pullback, the higher the odds that it rebounds to new highs. each one of these had nasty 3 to 7 day pullbacks that scared the shit out of people.
DeleteLook at GASS...another example. We were debating the merits of its run being over when it dropped 18% in 4 days in early Feb. it's up 43% since then. Remember when GRPN dropped to $4.2 from $6.1 just a week earlier? It's up almost 50% since then. BYD dropped $8.1 to $6.2...up 33% in the month since then. OWW is the best one. I let my emotions get the best of me and stopped myself out when I was trying to buy the pullback in mid January. It ran up 65% to Jan 9th, then gaved up about 55 to 60% of the gains in 5 days. Since then it's up 119% in two months. If you're trying to buy the pullback, the majority of them trade sideways for a week or so and then rally hard.
Deletethe pullbacks that don't last for long are typically earnings related pullbacks. those are typically bought up right away. that happened with GRPN and CZR.
DeleteA friend of mine put all of his money into APP at $1.00. Needless to say he's pretty excited today.
ReplyDeleteMiners taking a curious beating
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by manx928 (99 comments) on Tue, 03/26/2013 - 11:28 #118499
'Miners on the TSX are taking a bit of a beating this morning despite gold being fairly flat and despite an article in the Globe about substantial insider buying. It has been observed in the past that the miners sometimes predict gold's path, so perhaps we'll soon see a drop.
'DD: Long (too long?) PMs and PM miners.'
My take- Beatings occur daily in the capital markets, and there's nothing extraordinary about them.
DeleteHeck, I took one yesterday. But I struck back as well.
DeleteThere's nothing curious about a beating after a bull market has ended (or so it appears). I might take a reverse beating for saying that, I know.
DeleteGood point. What we're watching may be the unwinding of a decade long bull in gold, with goldbugs in denial all the way down.
Deletethat's been my feeling for a while now. the only thing that makes me wonder if it's the end is why gold has held up for so long. it's been at 1600 or so for close to 2 years now. when big blowoff top bull markets end they usually crash within the 20 months that it has been since Gold topped out.
DeleteAt some point there is an agreement on price.
DeleteThink about it. It was at over $1900 in 2011 and is down just about 25% from there, a bear market for sure. Maybe 1500-1600 is the price?
DeleteI think we may be at the point where people go from looking for bottoms to buy to tops to sell. Gold seems to fall more easily than it rises now - we couldn't even rally 3% on the Cyprus news.
DeleteI don't think the price crashes as the costs to mine have permanently raised the prices needed to extract metals (in the same way all the $20 oil is gone), but I could easily see $1,300 or even $1,000 on a spike down.
The valuation on miners is certainly getting interesting though, but I really have a tough time seeing how the rise with a falling metal price.
What it comes down to is opinion, and we need to remember that humans are fallible. It's difficult to comprehend why so many are focused on one man's opinion (especially when often wrong).
DeleteIf the 50% to 61.8% retracement holds true on the dry bulk shippers then keep these prices in mind:
ReplyDeleteBALT: $3.54 to $3.7
EXM: $0.73 to $0.8
DSX: $8.49 to $8.9
NM: $3.79 to $3.95
EGLE: $2.67 to $2.95
YRCW retracements: $7.22 to $7.68.
DeleteNOR - Long $4.44
ReplyDelete3/25/13 NOR - We believe NOR is oversold, PO remains $8
I can pick 'em, can't I?
Deletewtf. Over a grand. Major service, 4 tires, new floor mats. Less expensive than trading it in for a new car, however.
ReplyDeleteThat was fast, too, almost too fast.
DeleteVLKS Passat 2001
Delete$3,000 last week half of residual value, but only 34K miles.
Yellow YRCW that's enough already.
First in the door this morning, bro. 7 am.
DeleteI sold all other positions and moved everything into YRCW. Avg is now $6.46. God help me.
ReplyDeletesorry $6.454696 avg to be exact.
DeleteBless you my son.
DeleteBe careful, TOF, of what you wish for. God often helps in mysterious ways. It appears that God has helped me, using the stock market, to realize that I should live and act as a God's servant (do whatever is needed in every situation to bring more harmony into life), rather than hoping for fulfillment of my egocentric desires...
DeleteAs God's servant I can bring a heck of a lot of harmony to about any situation with some money.
DeleteThat was God's message to me.
Opened YRCW @ 7.32...
ReplyDeleteVolatility is the name of the game with this stock. In 13 trading days it went from $5.75 to $9.60 to $7.25. Wow. If it's near a bottom then I expect it to trade sideways with hardly any volatility for the next week or so. Get everyone bored stiff.
DeleteIs that what you think SLV is doing? Getting everyone bored stiff?
DeleteNo. SLV has done nothing for a year. It has gone down for 6 months. IOW, the trend is down.
DeleteI'll bet anyone short SLV isn't bored.
Just sold at $3.48 1000 shares of TVIX I purchased at $4.14. The pullback that should have happened did not happen, which suggests that the market is pretty strong and is not ready for a major decline yet. If a lot of exuberance appears when S&P breaks to all-time highs, then I might re-enter TVIX.
ReplyDeleteWTIC & NG - This could get interesting, both of these seem to be nearing overbought?
ReplyDeleteTVIX @ 3.50
ReplyDeleteYRCW @ 7.38 add on to position
Expanding on the thought I posted at 12:51pm, I have decided to put my portfolio into a "conservatorship" -- not add any more money to it and let God manage it. I don't care about it anymore.
ReplyDeleteMy wife is expecting a third child, a girl she really wanted (we got 2 sons first), and it seems to me that the situation is calling for building up a little cash cushion, rather than throwing all the money I am earning at my job into the stock market hole.
Good luck, friends, with this game, and may you be happy, in the end, with what this game gives/teaches you.
DeleteGood luck to you too. I'll stay in touch bro.
DeleteGood luck David. And congrats! I was merely joking about the God reference tho.
DeleteFirst, congratulations to you and your wife.
DeleteSecond, God helps those who help themselves.
To me the market is a constant state of struggle and how one trains ones mind to respond to the market and life determines ones level of happiness.
The market is a huge parasite set up to feed on the middle class through fee extraction for the benefit of the owners of the system.
Congrats David, keep in touch buddy!
DeleteTrying VELT 1.86
ReplyDeleteSucks, I wish you would have said you bought YELLOW, since you are pretty good at buying lows.
DeleteShucks
DeleteI did earlier @ 7.42.
DeleteNew floor matts for an 02? WTF is THAT!?
ReplyDeleteThose white paper dealer service dept. supplied mats, you didn't get any?
DeleteLater. I have to go to this lame 'event' the architect is doing for that big house I'm building. Says there's going to be 40-50 local architects looking at it. Oh what fun. House looks nice though.
ReplyDeleteNot finished yet? Dang man, you're kinda milking that job aren't you?
DeleteDr. Copper slipped and busted his azz again today.
ReplyDeletePyonyang threatens to launch missile on Guam, Hawaii and West coast.
ReplyDeleteDavid- Sleep on it and return tomorrow with a better plan.
ReplyDeleteGV - Probably a good short here.
ReplyDeletePAL - They sold their gold property last week apparently, this was their second failed gold foray in so many years.
ReplyDeleteIRBT - IH&S target is $36, is this even possible?
ReplyDeleteKOLD - Took a 5% smackdown today, did you see that move up in natty? $3.95 is near the limit MOG had sighted earlier....
ReplyDeleteRobot stats from previous years:
ReplyDelete2012 Returns:
SPX Benchmark Index 13.4%
Robot +22.3%
2011 Returns:
SPX Benchmark Index 0%
Robot +32.7%
2010 Returns:
SPX Benchmark Index +12.8%
Robot +40.0%
2009 Returns:
SPX Benchmark Index +23.5%
Robot +80.0%
Since November, UTIL has moved up 15%, presumably in search of yield.
ReplyDelete"When Volatility Drops, It's Time to Own Smallcaps: Goldman at Barrons.com"
ReplyDeleteCongrats on the new baby David! Much more important than the market.
ReplyDeleteTOF, do you remember the name of that Chinese stock that was selling tv set-top boxes you were talking about before. Was thinking to take a look at it again.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete