VAD linked to an article by Peter Brandt about charting, good stuff.
I am a chartist. I do not believe that charts are predictive. Charts are a tool, that’s it. I lose money on more than 55% of my trades. That means that my default assumption on each trade is that I will lose money. So, if I am wrong on this post, big deal.
Charts offer me the opportunity to identify several things about a candidate trade: 1.Path of least resistance for a market 2.A logical place for entering a trade 3.The price level where I will throw in the towel if I am wrong (I normally limit the risk on any given trade to 1% of my trading capital) 4.A possible price target or objective
More importantly — and you will not understand this point if you are a professional wannabe — certain price behavior and its resulting chart structure can provide insight into trade with extremely torqued reward to risk profiles.
BB said, "It's the same reason I don't invest much in high-tech - too competitive. JDSU - $3 billion market cap with 11 analysts. ORI (insurer) - $3 billion market cap, 1 analyst. Where are you more likely to find a stock pricing discrepency?"
I see investing as a competition where money flows from the uninformed to those with more knowledge. When you've got analysts with teams doing channel checks and getting ahead of the sales reports or brokerages hiring geologists to analyze those 43-03 reports, its hard for us to compete.
You have to know your edge. Being individual investors, we have lots, but better knowledge, unless it is an unfollowed stock, is probably not one of them.
I don't know which REIT's you hold, but most are risky here. Many have had big runs based on being able to refinance at lower rates showing improving cash flows and providing high dividends. This is pretty much at an end and dividend increases are going to become rarer and, if rates rise, you will start seeing dividend cuts. I would be very cautious.
Re BAC and AGO, it's a down day in the market and both are good for selling as have had outsized runs the last year - both are probably good to own still, but you may have to ride out a correction here. Or not, who know when the correction will actually come? I see guys like Kass jumping on every pullback still. He likley will get it right one of these times, but at what cost?
AGO - I suspect traders are simply taking advantage of broad market weakness to punish recent buyers by attempting to shake them out with losses.
MREIT shakeout prior to next leg up is my suspicion.
I disagree concerning MREIT's refinancing at low rates being a tailwind, they've been facing headwinds(see recent dividend cuts); the headwind I've been watching involves loss of revenue due to holdings being refinanced at lower rates(forced asset sales = revenue loss). Mortgage applications are down now for the second month, thus perhaps this headwind is abating?
NLY and now back into PMT this morning, NLY traded above $17 for the past couple years, current price of recent months has been a result of div cuts from the mortgagee refinancing wave I guess. Look at ARR, the recent dip came from misunderstood issuance of shares and the short term dividend cut that resulted b/c the new "dilution" capital hadn't yet been deployed.
PMT is in cahoots with my broker, so I'm not discounting some direct and/or even indirect conflict of interest b/c my broker(BAC, Ha!) is likely still attempting to unload non-performing mortgages. BAC sights GSE reform as a tailwind for MREITS:
BACML: "Freddie Mac retained portfolio continues to shrink Freddie Mac announced its retained portfolio declined $7.2B in Feb to $543B, highlighting the gradual withdrawal of the GSE’s from the mortgage market which may improve investment opportunities for private capital. The declines in the retained portfolio represented a 15.9% annualized pace while the total portfolio declined 4.1%. The shrinking portfolios reinforce recent policy maker rhetoric to reduce the role of the GSEs in the housing finance markets, which is likely to create new investment opportunities for mortgage REITs. Specifically, many hybrid mortgage REITs have said they are in discussions with the GSEs to enter risk sharing arrangements that will add to the supply of new issue credit assets."
A steepening of the rate curve is positive for MREIT's, assuming they don't screw up the timing. Of course some will outperform others due to this.
We'll see, I'm thinking in terms of buying opportunity on the weakness....
I still think that there is too much hope in gold and the gold stocks.
The insider buying on materials stocks on the TSX (which are mainly gold stocks) is the highest of all industries at 433%, but dropping the last month with the price of gold. Over the last year, it has averaged around 250%, so still high.
Normally high insider buying would be a good thing and perhaps it will be again this time, but, on the other hand, maybe we need to see more discouraged insiders before we bottom.
"Yeah, well to be honest I still think the miners will destroy the sister site. In fact, it's not looking good at the moment."
Starting with KRY, remember that one. The problem is that many people that read his blog were naive and thought he was leading them to the promise land. Without the discipline to cut loss, you get destroyed plain and simple.
The thing about gold here is have the gyrations this morning just a bounce off of Feb Mar lows and if so its weak. In my mind I find it hard to believe they will not at least cut below those lows to shake the stops.
As Sinclair says keep your core, and for your trading portion, sell rhino horns and buy sinkers.
If they would get back into hedging gold physical, I would buy here, but without hedging, these multi-year, multi-billion dollar mines become much more risky.
True, but they also made a lot of money from hedging in the 1990's as gold drifted around and kept their stock going up. I don't want to buy ABX as a leveraged play on the gold price here. I want to buy it as a miner with good assets who can make a lot of money on $1,600 gold.
The worst for ABX would be if they committed $10 billion to a mine on the basis $1,100 gold, but then gold crashes back to $500 and they lose the entire investment.
Hedge it out now, lock in the profits, increase the dividends over time and I think the stock does really well.
I don't envy anyone being long something that is crashing. And I definitely don't want to ridicule them. We're all wrong in this whacky game...it's the great humbler. Whenever I read One Up On Wall Street I realize how much pain you can take and still be right about something.
I'm not trying to ridicule and sorry it comes across that way. It is just that when you say you are going to manage peoples money and trade the PM's because you have "expertise" at and then change and become a 3-5 year buy and holder, that's wrong.
But it's really the fault of people leaving he money with him.
Anyway your right, this is a tough game, and to think i have not even had coffee this morning. It must be the large quantity of Vit C. I'm not exactly hitting the ball out of the park at the moment either.
How can it be considered ridicule when the observation is in hindsight? My guess is Cara has been selling puts, so the haircut probably isn't nearly as great as might be concluded?
Thus, I'm unwilling to agree Cara clients have taken massive haircuts on their B&H PM positions, there's just no proof of that. Misleading rhetoric is more likely, IMO.
WE will never know (unless you know someone who has and account) I once inquired about results and was given our clients all come in at different times so they are all different, true.
But you can always create a model account of say 100K with real money and you have a verified track record.
It kind of reminds me of a dice game where I roll the dice and the dice have no dots, but do not worry I will tell you what the numbers are.
Last rant for the day I hope, He call the bottom in what was it 08 about 30% to early.
I still think NOK is a safe pick and would recommend buying it now around $3.30. Like I mentioned before they have about 1/3 of their value in net cash and one of their divisions, Nokia Siemens Network, if valued at the same valuation as Ericsson, is worth about 3/4 of the value of the company. So between the cash and NSN the company is worth more than what the stock trades for. The interesting thing with NSN is their partner Siemens announced last month that they want to end the partnership. What will happen is:
(1) another buyer will step in and take over their stake (2) Nokia will buy their stake (3) they will spin the company off as a separate company and do an IPO
I think option 3 is a possibility and it would create a lot of value for shareholders. Nokia has already stated they intend to focus on raising cash through cutting their dividend and selling assets so #2 is highly unlikely. If a spinoff occurs and the company is valued like Ericsson (ERIC) is then the sum of that division and the cash on hand is worth over $3.50 while Nokia trades at $3.30. The rest of the company (the handsets division, the mapping division (their mapping technology is in 90% of the automobile market, etc) would be worth less than $0. The best part is the NSN catalyst from what I gather is this month.
After today's decline, SPY has made a double top on the daily chart. This will probably turn out to be a fake double top, but still I think it is a reasonable point to buy more SPY puts. So I just bought 4 contracts of June $156 puts at $4.06.
Someone pointed out that gold/silver switched to being negatively correlated with S&P after Nov 2012. Looks like it is only the case when S&P is going up. :))
The big signal was the R 2000 breaking below 92.68 (IWM)meaning the decline was broad based, and the defensive sectors reaching new highs while others broke down.
It looks like today the IWM is just below the 50 dma.
I was just looking at the monthly chart of CAT and it still appears to be in a series of higher lows. Looks like a fairly low risk trade to me. Stop out below $79.50.
Support / resistance lines appear to work better than just about anything else. Aside from minor fakeouts I think they reason they work makes sense: they are the points where supply and demand are the greatest.
Sinclair: “From an investment standpoint, fortunes have been made when items have been purchased that are out of public favor. Meaning items which had the same type of bull/bear comparisons.
But I think what we have to consider here is there are major sovereigns in the gold market. You have both Russia and China with a very significant interest in terms of accumulating physical gold, or what true wealth still remains in Western central bank vaults. At the same time you have the West which has a significant interest in depreciating the price of gold. So you literally have a war going on in the gold market.
The real turn in the gold market, which I think is not far away, will occur when either Russia, China, or both, feel that the West is depreciating gold to a point where they would simply take everything in the market that was for sale. I no longer believe the gold market is a group of wealthy players, but, instead, it is now very much a political game, and the various players have as much money as they want to create for this game.
So it’s going to be very interesting to see if the Russians, having seen what has taken place in Cyprus, will take abuse in the gold market and back away quietly. I think it’s going to be determined this week whether China and Russia are in accord with the depreciation of the price of gold, which has clearly been an operation from $1,900 down. This has been a strategized operation, and something that if we were to engage in with a common stock, we would be arrested.”
Very hard to disagree. Volcker said his big mistake was letting gold appreciate. Maybe Bernanke, now that he may feel in control, is following that advice. At some point the market will correct, the economy will falter, and the bugs will be back.
I came in on Rt29N, and took 66 to the first station, must've been Manassas. I probably thought I'd catch it in Haymarket but couldn't 'cause there's no station there.
Hedge funds, on average, returned just above 3 percent in the first quarter of 2013, a brutal return compared to buyers of an S&P 500 index fund, who enjoyed a 10 percent return on their money.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100609886
>> If you are running a hedge fund and are this far behing already, aren't you going to bu into weakness on a day like today keeping the pullback small? Fundamentals will drive in the long run, but in the short run, this type of stuff will matter.
From Bespoke -> Gold is now only one more day like today from a 52-week low. The last time Gold traded at a 52-week low was in October 2008, and before that April 2001.
'As you can see, I have not changed my view. “This is my story and I’m sticking to it.” Those who hang in and buy more gold and silver miners at this point will thank me later, if you wish. It matters not to me.'
Let me come back to that in a few days/weeks. I have no problem giving credit where credit is due. I also have no problem with pointing out he got into Paulson's limo just before it drove off a cliff, if that's the case.
2nd, Remember when he would write something like that and low and behold it came to pass? Maybe not perfectly on his timing, but pretty close. It will be interesting to see if the old auditor pulls this off. GGN is at the low of the day. SAND is 24 cents off the low. GLD 50+ cents off the low. SLV off but not as much. UUP just sitting there. FXE up a quarter point.
Looks like Bill is going "all-in" and is putting his reputation on the line:
"The US Dollar has peaked in the past couple days and will now start trending lower. I anticipate 79 to be reached in April."
"Gold has hard support at 1565 – going back to 3Q2011. The base is finished. I earlier assessed this market as being ready for take-off sometime this week to next week. That will happen. I believe the March 21 highs of ~1615 will be surpassed within days"
What is he going to say when both of the above beliefs are not going to materialize??? He will then be viewed as just another pundit...
He is really sticking his neck out now. Pre-crash he was high on Citicorp. I found that in the archives and I brought it up, post-crash. He admitted his mistake. End of story but that was before he began working with OPM.
VAD linked to an article by Peter Brandt about charting, good stuff.
ReplyDeleteI am a chartist. I do not believe that charts are predictive. Charts are a tool, that’s it. I lose money on more than 55% of my trades. That means that my default assumption on each trade is that I will lose money. So, if I am wrong on this post, big deal.
Charts offer me the opportunity to identify several things about a candidate trade:
1.Path of least resistance for a market
2.A logical place for entering a trade
3.The price level where I will throw in the towel if I am wrong (I normally limit the risk on any given trade to 1% of my trading capital)
4.A possible price target or objective
More importantly — and you will not understand this point if you are a professional wannabe — certain price behavior and its resulting chart structure can provide insight into trade with extremely torqued reward to risk profiles.
Credit Swisse downgrades gold, silver and copper.
ReplyDeleteADP employment leaves something to be desired, I think is what I heard.
AVAV - So much for all the drone hype, eh?
ReplyDeleteBB said, "It's the same reason I don't invest much in high-tech - too competitive. JDSU - $3 billion market cap with 11 analysts. ORI (insurer) - $3 billion market cap, 1 analyst. Where are you more likely to find a stock pricing discrepency?"
ReplyDeleteThat's a really interesting take BB.
I see investing as a competition where money flows from the uninformed to those with more knowledge. When you've got analysts with teams doing channel checks and getting ahead of the sales reports or brokerages hiring geologists to analyze those 43-03 reports, its hard for us to compete.
DeleteYou have to know your edge. Being individual investors, we have lots, but better knowledge, unless it is an unfollowed stock, is probably not one of them.
AMG - Neutral -> Buy
ReplyDeletePMT - Back in at $25.19
ReplyDeleteSee the bull trap from last Wednesday. Nice work, eh?
DeleteTZA offed
ReplyDeleteGG long
battle in gold shares this morning is interesting
IAG chart looks interesting, around the 20SMA
DeleteFollowing you in on GG @ 32.15...
Deletegood and gutzy call on the close yesterday 2nd
DeleteYeah, well to be honest I still think the miners will destroy the sister site. In fact, it's not looking good at the moment.
DeleteRJA reloaded long
ReplyDeleteAGO - Good place to try your luck, $19.82....
ReplyDeleteGGN - Looks like bear flag formation, to me. Pole mid Feb.
ReplyDeleteHXM - How many times will this one test $8.80?
ReplyDeleteYRCW now down 7 of the last 8 trading days.
ReplyDeleteIt's there to keep GMO company.
DeleteMight get to see $6.80 then buying kicks in?
DeleteThat's me at 6.99.
DeleteGMO reminds me of a yacht adrift at sea.
DeleteWhy bother? Seriously. NOK is probably lower risk and appears to have held the $3.25 fairly well.
DeleteThat's just dirty what they did with ZNGA the past few days.
"just dirty what they did with ZNGA"
DeleteYou're right about that, they took it right to lower trend line support for no reason at all.
NOK has a pretty good dividend here, only one month till ex-div date. Still, for some reason my broker says it's overpriced.
DeleteSummer's just around the corner, never did get my cheap gasoline.....??????
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty sure I've ruined Kendra. She's wearing Giants shorts, t-shirt, hat, orange socks, and black shoes to school today.
ReplyDeleteYou dress like a girl?
DeleteYou better hope your wife doesn't notice.....
DeleteAUMN - This one can easily reach $5 if silver reverses here and runs back to $35?
ReplyDeleteMakes ya wonder about the possibility, don't it?
PAL - One hell of a pump and dump, huh, most volume ever for PAL.....
ReplyDeleteBoth my REIT's are getting whacked, along with BAC and AGO too.
ReplyDeleteWhat the heck is going on?
Wealth destruction, my man. Welcome to the club.
DeleteGrowth in service industry lower than expected.
DeleteI don't know which REIT's you hold, but most are risky here. Many have had big runs based on being able to refinance at lower rates showing improving cash flows and providing high dividends. This is pretty much at an end and dividend increases are going to become rarer and, if rates rise, you will start seeing dividend cuts. I would be very cautious.
DeleteRe BAC and AGO, it's a down day in the market and both are good for selling as have had outsized runs the last year - both are probably good to own still, but you may have to ride out a correction here. Or not, who know when the correction will actually come? I see guys like Kass jumping on every pullback still. He likley will get it right one of these times, but at what cost?
AGO - I suspect traders are simply taking advantage of broad market weakness to punish recent buyers by attempting to shake them out with losses.
DeleteMREIT shakeout prior to next leg up is my suspicion.
I disagree concerning MREIT's refinancing at low rates being a tailwind, they've been facing headwinds(see recent dividend cuts); the headwind I've been watching involves loss of revenue due to holdings being refinanced at lower rates(forced asset sales = revenue loss). Mortgage applications are down now for the second month, thus perhaps this headwind is abating?
NLY and now back into PMT this morning, NLY traded above $17 for the past couple years, current price of recent months has been a result of div cuts from the mortgagee refinancing wave I guess. Look at ARR, the recent dip came from misunderstood issuance of shares and the short term dividend cut that resulted b/c the new "dilution" capital hadn't yet been deployed.
PMT is in cahoots with my broker, so I'm not discounting some direct and/or even indirect conflict of interest b/c my broker(BAC, Ha!) is likely still attempting to unload non-performing mortgages. BAC sights GSE reform as a tailwind for MREITS:
BACML:
"Freddie Mac retained portfolio continues to shrink
Freddie Mac announced its retained portfolio declined $7.2B in Feb to $543B,
highlighting the gradual withdrawal of the GSE’s from the mortgage market which
may improve investment opportunities for private capital. The declines in the
retained portfolio represented a 15.9% annualized pace while the total portfolio
declined 4.1%. The shrinking portfolios reinforce recent policy maker rhetoric to
reduce the role of the GSEs in the housing finance markets, which is likely to
create new investment opportunities for mortgage REITs. Specifically, many
hybrid mortgage REITs have said they are in discussions with the GSEs to enter
risk sharing arrangements that will add to the supply of new issue credit assets."
A steepening of the rate curve is positive for MREIT's, assuming they don't screw up the timing. Of course some will outperform others due to this.
We'll see, I'm thinking in terms of buying opportunity on the weakness....
GDXJ getting ----ed up bad.
ReplyDeleteI still think that there is too much hope in gold and the gold stocks.
DeleteThe insider buying on materials stocks on the TSX (which are mainly gold stocks) is the highest of all industries at 433%, but dropping the last month with the price of gold. Over the last year, it has averaged around 250%, so still high.
Normally high insider buying would be a good thing and perhaps it will be again this time, but, on the other hand, maybe we need to see more discouraged insiders before we bottom.
"Yeah, well to be honest I still think the miners will destroy the sister site. In fact, it's not looking good at the moment."
ReplyDeleteStarting with KRY, remember that one. The problem is that many people that read his blog were naive and thought he was leading them to the promise land. Without the discipline to cut loss, you get destroyed plain and simple.
The thing about gold here is have the gyrations this morning just a bounce off of Feb Mar lows and if so its weak. In my mind I find it hard to believe they will not at least cut below those lows to shake the stops.
As Sinclair says keep your core, and for your trading portion, sell rhino horns and buy sinkers.
Should of could of stayed with TZA
Oh yeah and for the miners its more like a crevasse.
ReplyDeleteTechnically just way to many stocks breaking down YRCW XCO X ANR, structually disasters.
Kingpin gold miner ABX, now down almost 50% from it's high which is generally the extent of it's pullbacks over the last 30 years:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=abx#symbol=abx;range=my;compare=;indicator=split+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=on;source=undefined;
If they would get back into hedging gold physical, I would buy here, but without hedging, these multi-year, multi-billion dollar mines become much more risky.
BB, I really do not know why you would prefer a miner to hedge their gold. If you do not like gold go flat or short.
DeleteDo you know how many BILLIONS of DOLLARS Barrick lost through its hedging program of the past?
True, but they also made a lot of money from hedging in the 1990's as gold drifted around and kept their stock going up. I don't want to buy ABX as a leveraged play on the gold price here. I want to buy it as a miner with good assets who can make a lot of money on $1,600 gold.
DeleteThe worst for ABX would be if they committed $10 billion to a mine on the basis $1,100 gold, but then gold crashes back to $500 and they lose the entire investment.
Hedge it out now, lock in the profits, increase the dividends over time and I think the stock does really well.
If gold crashed down to $500 that would be stunning.
DeleteBTW Billy Boy is getting defensive must be feeling the heat.
DeleteHe laid out his three part defense, why question is what happens if they all fail, what then?
I was going to ask over there, but may get banned with such a question. He got F--ked with an opinon instead of trading prices as he preaches.
I don't envy anyone being long something that is crashing. And I definitely don't want to ridicule them. We're all wrong in this whacky game...it's the great humbler. Whenever I read One Up On Wall Street I realize how much pain you can take and still be right about something.
DeleteI'm not trying to ridicule and sorry it comes across that way. It is just that when you say you are going to manage peoples money and trade the PM's because you have "expertise" at and then change and become a 3-5 year buy and holder, that's wrong.
DeleteBut it's really the fault of people leaving he money with him.
Anyway your right, this is a tough game, and to think i have not even had coffee this morning. It must be the large quantity of Vit C. I'm not exactly hitting the ball out of the park at the moment either.
Good Luck guys.
How can it be considered ridicule when the observation is in hindsight? My guess is Cara has been selling puts, so the haircut probably isn't nearly as great as might be concluded?
DeleteThus, I'm unwilling to agree Cara clients have taken massive haircuts on their B&H PM positions, there's just no proof of that. Misleading rhetoric is more likely, IMO.
WE will never know (unless you know someone who has and account) I once inquired about results and was given our clients all come in at different times so they are all different, true.
DeleteBut you can always create a model account of say 100K with real money and you have a verified track record.
It kind of reminds me of a dice game where I roll the dice and the dice have no dots, but do not worry I will tell you what the numbers are.
Last rant for the day I hope, He call the bottom in what was it 08 about 30% to early.
OK, Joe enough!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I still think NOK is a safe pick and would recommend buying it now around $3.30. Like I mentioned before they have about 1/3 of their value in net cash and one of their divisions, Nokia Siemens Network, if valued at the same valuation as Ericsson, is worth about 3/4 of the value of the company. So between the cash and NSN the company is worth more than what the stock trades for. The interesting thing with NSN is their partner Siemens announced last month that they want to end the partnership. What will happen is:
ReplyDelete(1) another buyer will step in and take over their stake
(2) Nokia will buy their stake
(3) they will spin the company off as a separate company and do an IPO
I think option 3 is a possibility and it would create a lot of value for shareholders. Nokia has already stated they intend to focus on raising cash through cutting their dividend and selling assets so #2 is highly unlikely. If a spinoff occurs and the company is valued like Ericsson (ERIC) is then the sum of that division and the cash on hand is worth over $3.50 while Nokia trades at $3.30. The rest of the company (the handsets division, the mapping division (their mapping technology is in 90% of the automobile market, etc) would be worth less than $0. The best part is the NSN catalyst from what I gather is this month.
BTW, I just opened an account in a Cyprus bank and will be wiring all my money ther in the next 48 hours.
ReplyDeleteAh, I feel so much better now!
You could skate to where the puck will be by opening accounts in Spain and Italy?
DeleteNice thought, skate to where the puck will be.
DeleteDefinitely a B&H strategy will be necessary in the case of both Italy and Spain, at least until the payoff eventually materializes.
DeleteNew lows Jun contract, one of his three pillars just gave way.
ReplyDeleteMe I'm with the OT guys and going to average in on three tranches with GG and buy sinkers.
Still no fun, but at least I'm whole and have not been sliced up like shasimi.
Sashimi
DeleteWith a little luck, that swoosh in Jun gold was the taking out of stops.
If you want to win the war, you need to bankrupt your enemy.
ReplyDeleteAfter today's decline, SPY has made a double top on the daily chart. This will probably turn out to be a fake double top, but still I think it is a reasonable point to buy more SPY puts. So I just bought 4 contracts of June $156 puts at $4.06.
ReplyDeleteBesides, the current pullback had made a low on the futures chart
Deletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1
that is equal BUT NOT HIGHER than the previous low. In a few hours, possibly, the previous low will be broken...
My current perception is, there's a huge sense of complacency on behalf of longs.
DeleteUpdate: the previous low on the 1h S&P futures chart has just been broken -- hold onto your hats, ladies...
DeleteRobot is short now, at 1562
ReplyDeleteWhatever happened to the concept of PM's being a safe haven? Just wondering......
ReplyDeleteSomeone pointed out that gold/silver switched to being negatively correlated with S&P after Nov 2012. Looks like it is only the case when S&P is going up. :))
DeleteThe big signal was the R 2000 breaking below 92.68 (IWM)meaning the decline was broad based, and the defensive sectors reaching new highs while others broke down.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like today the IWM is just below the 50 dma.
I was just looking at the monthly chart of CAT and it still appears to be in a series of higher lows. Looks like a fairly low risk trade to me. Stop out below $79.50.
ReplyDeleteThat's a great analysis, I've been meaning to look at that chart.
DeleteI coulda' sworn I saw some early strength in the steelers this morning, as well.
DeleteI ain't no genius, that's for sure.
Support / resistance lines appear to work better than just about anything else. Aside from minor fakeouts I think they reason they work makes sense: they are the points where supply and demand are the greatest.
DeleteOne last thought, the amount of information and charts he puts out on his blog is excellent.
ReplyDeleteHe puts his ideas out there and means well. Peace.
Natty - No place left to hide??
ReplyDeleteLike or dislike, always insightful.
ReplyDeleteSinclair: “From an investment standpoint, fortunes have been made when items have been purchased that are out of public favor. Meaning items which had the same type of bull/bear comparisons.
But I think what we have to consider here is there are major sovereigns in the gold market. You have both Russia and China with a very significant interest in terms of accumulating physical gold, or what true wealth still remains in Western central bank vaults. At the same time you have the West which has a significant interest in depreciating the price of gold. So you literally have a war going on in the gold market.
The real turn in the gold market, which I think is not far away, will occur when either Russia, China, or both, feel that the West is depreciating gold to a point where they would simply take everything in the market that was for sale. I no longer believe the gold market is a group of wealthy players, but, instead, it is now very much a political game, and the various players have as much money as they want to create for this game.
So it’s going to be very interesting to see if the Russians, having seen what has taken place in Cyprus, will take abuse in the gold market and back away quietly. I think it’s going to be determined this week whether China and Russia are in accord with the depreciation of the price of gold, which has clearly been an operation from $1,900 down. This has been a strategized operation, and something that if we were to engage in with a common stock, we would be arrested.”
Very hard to disagree. Volcker said his big mistake was letting gold appreciate. Maybe Bernanke, now that he may feel in control, is following that advice. At some point the market will correct, the economy will falter, and the bugs will be back.
Deleteit's all a conspiracy i tell ya!
DeleteI wouldn't say it's a conspiracy, but I wouldn't doubt high jinx currency manipulation amongst "friends".
DeleteConspiracy or not, too many gov't are in the mkt's now for political purpose and they do things that are not for economic gains.
DeleteAnd their pockets are deep. Still we the individual are nimble.
Or, as they say...."Don't fight the Fed."
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteIEP - This pickle's still green....
ReplyDelete'I don't envy anyone being long something that is crashing.'
ReplyDeleteI'm long as of last night, and I'M feeling the heat, bro. TG it's only 30% of the port, but still...
I can't quite tell but from first glance it looks like the move above $8.25 was a fakeout for YRCW. Still early...
ReplyDeletewow
They're just trading it, selling good news and waiting for reload opportunities around support levels, just as you were saying earlier.
DeleteHope is a good thing
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzuM2XTnpSA
This is the one i was looking for
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RQSmfzfg2MY
GGN - A gnat's butt from $12, will the damage abate here?
ReplyDeleteSomething we already knew ...
ReplyDeleteWall Street Journal @WSJ
Study: Moderate drinking sparks creativity with connections, cues a sober brain would block out. http://on.wsj.com/10vqRCO
Is paranoia of any creative significance?
DeleteDrinking (perhaps) allows the paranoia's to flow back-n-forth more freely .. maybe that's why they call it 'doping' of materials... :-)
DeleteWaiter asks "What would you like to drink?" Ans: "I'm too young to drink!"
DeleteI know from experience a couple of beers can help your golf game, but 8 or 10, not so much.
DeleteSpring is slowly arriving. I'm in Haymarket VA. You're close to DC too aren't you???
DeleteI'm just far enough away from DC to be comfortable about my proximity. ;)
DeleteI know well, where Haymarket is, just off Rt 7, used to be a nice fruit stand there a few decades back where I'd buy apple cider.
Well it's intersection of I-66, Rt15 and Rt55 west of Manassas but the Saturday food-market still survives...
DeleteI used to take Rt7 from Falls Church by car, passing through on the way to play on the Shenandoah. 66 wasn't there.
DeleteWAY -- WAY BEFORE My time Bubba!!!!! :--)
DeleteYeah, last time I was in Haymarket just a couple years ago, I was boarding the train into DC.
DeleteDude -- the VRE ends at Broad Run/Manassas extension to Haymarket is still a pipe-dream...
DeleteCoulda sworn I took it from Haymarket, you're right I guess, musta been Manassas.
DeleteI came in on Rt29N, and took 66 to the first station, must've been Manassas. I probably thought I'd catch it in Haymarket but couldn't 'cause there's no station there.
DeleteHedge funds, on average, returned just above 3 percent in the first quarter of 2013, a brutal return compared to buyers of an S&P 500 index fund, who enjoyed a 10 percent return on their money.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/100609886
>> If you are running a hedge fund and are this far behing already, aren't you going to bu into weakness on a day like today keeping the pullback small? Fundamentals will drive in the long run, but in the short run, this type of stuff will matter.
From Bespoke -> Gold is now only one more day like today from a 52-week low. The last time Gold traded at a 52-week low was in October 2008, and before that April 2001.
ReplyDeleteOne beer away from a beautiful day, if I can just keep 'em down.
DeleteSNE, if you like trendlines, SNE is right there with the slightest of undercut.
ReplyDelete50ma is 15.49 price 16.44
Coals may have turned the corner today.
ReplyDelete'As you can see, I have not changed my view. “This is my story and I’m sticking to it.” Those who hang in and buy more gold and silver miners at this point will thank me later, if you wish. It matters not to me.'
ReplyDeleteLet me come back to that in a few days/weeks. I have no problem giving credit where credit is due. I also have no problem with pointing out he got into Paulson's limo just before it drove off a cliff, if that's the case.
DeleteAccording to the Hulbert way of thinking, this is the type of stuff you hear when the markert has a long way to go down, not at a bottom.
DeleteSPX - Potential ED (Ending-Diagonal) unfolding higher (from 61p8) ...
Deletehttp://charts.61point8.com/20130403-SPX-60min-2.png
2nd, Remember when he would write something like that and low and behold it came to pass? Maybe not perfectly on his timing, but pretty close. It will be interesting to see if the old auditor pulls this off.
DeleteGGN is at the low of the day.
SAND is 24 cents off the low.
GLD 50+ cents off the low.
SLV off but not as much.
UUP just sitting there.
FXE up a quarter point.
It's like a train wreck, you can't stop watching.
Charts are disasters, but certainly now is a reasonable time to scale in if you believe in gold and miners. FWIW
DeleteNUGT - Might be worth WAITING for some Ribbon Reversal Signs ...
Deletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/wXefXH3BJPa
My Gold theme song
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8FN0GYCjvM
The Fed "may taper QE starting this summer and end it by end of year"?
ReplyDeleteBS
DeleteCarnival's "Triumph" adrift again, broke loose from it's moorings.
ReplyDeleteMissile defense under deployment to Guam.
ReplyDeleteCrap.
ReplyDeleteNice postmortem.
DeleteRJA - So far, so good. Just how cheap can corn and food get, in reality?
ReplyDeleteI dunno though, global crops can't be any worse off this year than last?
URA - Nice drop there, taking care of business.
ReplyDeleteLooks like Bill is going "all-in" and is putting his reputation on the line:
ReplyDelete"The US Dollar has peaked in the past couple days and will now start trending lower. I anticipate 79 to be reached in April."
"Gold has hard support at 1565 – going back to 3Q2011. The base is finished. I earlier assessed this market as being ready for take-off sometime this week to next week. That will happen. I believe the March 21 highs of ~1615 will be surpassed within days"
What is he going to say when both of the above beliefs are not going to materialize??? He will then be viewed as just another pundit...
How many followers have any chance of breaking even, assuming gold does move back to $1615.01?
DeleteHe is really sticking his neck out now. Pre-crash he was high on Citicorp. I found that in the archives and I brought it up, post-crash. He admitted his mistake. End of story but that was before he began working with OPM.
DeleteSPLK - This chart looks toppy, to me...
ReplyDeleteAAPL - This one closed green, what's all the bitching and complaining about, guys?
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete