Wednesday, April 3, 2013
04/04/13 I'm A Believer
I thought gold was more or less a certain thing
Seems the more I bought the less I got
What's the use in trying
All you get is pain
When I needed sunshine I got rain
Then I saw her face, now I'm a believer
Not a trace of doubt in my mind
I'm in gold, I'm a believer!
I couldn't leave her if I tried
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!!!!! :)
ReplyDeleteAm I the only one slightly freaked out by Harlan's picture?
ReplyDeleteDoesn't freak me out.
DeleteI lost money today, that's what I'm bitching about. I don't know about the others.
ReplyDeleteI'm back to freaking November 2012 levels.
Deletet3d- Ironic, is it not, that I did in fact nail my 5% move in miners...in the wrong freaking direction!
DeleteI'm down 5% in the quarter. PM's do not help. Neither does NSPH but I continue to hold now that I am long term. A preferred stock, my largest holding, has helped. No trades since Nov 30.
DeleteRe: Precious Metals forecast reiterated
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by Bill Cara (3983 comments) on Wed, 04/03/2013 - 20:38 #118823 (in reply to #118821)
Kaena,
Thank you. But, I believe that it's impossible for anybody to be "brilliant" in today's market. Central banks are in control. Unless you are one of their movers and shakers, you would be wise not to make forecasts. I do it because I want things on the record so that I can later review what went wrong with my forecast. In other words I do it as a learning experience.
I agree with all of the above, except for the point being made.
DeleteGold getting slammed yet again tonight
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by cheapy (548 comments) on Wed, 04/03/2013 - 21:58 #118824
$1544 last I looked. Each time I look its worse. I'm thinking about dumping everything I own. I'm too tired of the pain. It seems I can never win.
The banksters that manipulate the gold market in order to fleece the sheeple should just take it down to 1475 tonight and get it over with...at least for a week or two. When gold spikes back to, uh, 1615 we can kiss each other (sorry, Dave) for having hung in there. ($29)
ReplyDeleteKospi taking a solid jab to the midsection.
ReplyDeleteI just scanned through the day's action in TCK, X, Z, BAC, INTC, SMH. Ugly day all 'round.
ReplyDeleteUntil 5 minutes ago Black Thursday wasn't even on my radar.
DeleteWhat I'm not smart enough to understand is how are all of the resource stocks getting killed when we must be in a growth enviornment.
DeletePerhaps we're not in an growth environment as perceived, or resource stocks are about to surprise to the upside?
DeleteWhat do you think of this chart?:
Deletehttp://www.crbtrader.com/data.asp?page=chart&sym=BVY00&name=BLS%20Raw%20Industrials&domain=crb&display_ice=1&cancelstudy=&type=LINE&studies=SMA%2813%29;&a=W
CP- I'm not sure what I'm looking at??
DeleteThis chart is the industrials commodities index. 22 different raw industrial commodities are combined into the index. "The make-up of the Raw Industrials Index includes hides, tallow, copper scrap, leqd scrap, steel scrap, zinc, tin, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, rosin and rubber."
DeletePerhaps they're selling gold in preparation for rotation into equities?
ReplyDeleteGuys- I must be out of it today. Here's a comment I meant to post this morning:
ReplyDeleteFull scale crash unfolding in gold/miners this morning (gold down another -23/oz, and miners down another -5%!) I’m long, unfortunately- and there are few experiences comparable to being long in the midst of a crash. I’m tempted to ‘double down,’ but that would be like getting into Paulson’s limo, which is headed off a cliff. Discipline requires I close at end of day> 30% of the port crashing as I type, and likely to end the day down -1.5%.
The dents and flesh wounds are adding up, and I’m cutting back on trades before I end up sharing more than a table with Paulson! I’m pretty confident the broad market pulls back (hopefully not as violently as miners) for a trade I’m willing to open for longer than 24 hours.
So I closed RYPMX @ 46.99 for a -4.2% loss, and GG @ 31.16 for a -3.1% loss.
DeleteI was just about to ask where everyone stood. I was surprised to see you were still in there until this comment.
DeleteFor the record, I'm about 30% long combined GMO/YRCW. And as you all saw, I did double down in the back seat of Paulson's Yellow big rig. God help us TOF!
My stink bid was triggered for PMT, still have my NLY and BIDU, bought PKX yesterday.
DeleteOnly slightly red on all of these, except for NLY which I paid $14.35 for, excluding the two div cycles collected.
Crikes, it's not just the Bugs...TLM got hit today. Pull up a natty/crude/TLM chart. The drillers are all getting killed.
ReplyDeleteBTU/CLF stayed green.
ReplyDelete"What I'm not smart enough to understand is how are all of the resource stocks getting killed when we must be in a growth enviornment."
ReplyDeleteThat's exactly what I've been puzzled about!
Expected 10-year inflation is at a 3-year high:
Deletehttp://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=80368&category_id=0
I do have to say that the 1d chart of $USD futures seems like it has topped:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=d1
Sectors: 220< 11> What's up? LT T's. Wholesale whackage.
ReplyDeleteGMO had news today.
ReplyDeleteCNH - Prices notes.. This rate seems quite good to me, considering some of the other crappy rates I've seen lately.
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Lots of volume.
ReplyDeleteCheck out the insider buying....
Deletei get the feeling that we're either going to trade sideways for a while or we're going to be at 1700 within a year. while i agree that we're due for a pullback i do think housing is improving steadily and that credit markets are improving enough to make this recovery sustainable. more importantly, i don't know of many people that are gung ho on stocks.
ReplyDeleteOne or two up days would change everything but it better happen soon as we are below support in the russell and below the recent range in the spy, naz and dow.
Deleteeh...i understand landry's position but i'm not so sure of the urgency of things just because the S&P dropped 1%. famous last words
Delete"It's not the end of the world" but the longer the market is under support the more that level becomes resistance.
Delete2nd, calling a 5% move, yeah ironic. All one can do is make decisions through ones lens and than we are bystanders except for risk management.
ReplyDeleteI stayed with GG and will average 2 more units at 10% down each at that point I stop. I'd be surprised if I get to the 3rd unit. Looking at Jun gold, I hate that chart look, usually goes lower. So yes I know I'm playing with fire.
Sure seems like we are getting close to panic, physical down about -18% ytd and the miners?
The BOJ will purchase 7 trillion yen ($74 billion) of bonds a month along with more risk assets, the central bank said in Tokyo.
ReplyDelete> Thank you. But, I believe that it's impossible for anybody to be "brilliant" in today's market. Central banks are in control. Unless you are one of their movers and shakers, you would be wise not to make forecasts. I do it because I want things on the record so that I can later review what went wrong with my forecast. In other words I do it as a learning experience.
ReplyDeleteThis is the stuff the gold bugs all keep saying - conspiracy, got to be on the inside, etc. I was at my hardcore goldbug friend's last night and now he is saying:
The quoted price of gold doesn't matter as that is just "the paper price" of gold. The real people who run the world want the paper price down so they can buy it, but now they are asking for real physical and the real physical price for gold is over $2,000. Just wait till everyone asks for physical gold.
So he is right now and the whole world is wrong. Feel sorry for him as he is almost certainly going to lose a lot of money.
Just to conclude my story, my friend plans to keep his gold hidden in his basement, then when all the banks, government and money collapse, come in and buy assets for pennies on the dollar with his "real" money, gold.
DeleteNot really a high-percentage investment strategy.
For what it's worth, my stocks were up over 12% in Q1. Mainly due to good performance by financials, shippers/airplanes, a few special situations.
ReplyDeleteI've got 40% in financials, am underweight commodities with mainly energy and a couple of unique stocks, no metals.
When looking at commodities now, I really think you should look at long term charts and where we really are. For example, coper spent decades around $0.60 and never got above $1.50. Now its at $3.30. Supply is now increasing and demand appearing to be slowing, so it's hard to know what the new equilibrium price will be.
"coper spent decades around $0.60 and never got above $1.50. Now its at $3.30. Supply is now increasing and demand appearing to be slowing"
DeleteThis is a good observation, we could say that metals have been in under supply but that dynamic has changed, if not reversed. Low priced metals are an economic tailwind, as well.
Bernanke can probably feel at ease concerning this commodity sector.
But, is BC even vaguely aware of metal supply dynamics(shouldn't he be?), or is he looking at the world through some kind of twisted bias?
AGCO - Have you guys looked at the insider buying? Am I excited over nothing, fooling myself?
ReplyDeleteBOJ decision could light a fire under SNE, I'd expect.
ReplyDeleteAA - Lowering PO to $9, on anticipated credit downgrade.
ReplyDeleteGPL - Almost $1 now.
ReplyDeleteGMO news yesterday seemed pretty reasonable to me.
ReplyDeleteSomeone needs to hit the opening organ riff for 'Believer.'
ReplyDeleteWhat we all wanna know is where the stop losses are.
DeleteWe finally see bids on the miners!
DeleteIs this the real cost to produce?
ReplyDelete"Gold Fields sees Q1 production of 475k gold-equivalent ounces, cash costs of $830 per oz"
Tele- Didn't you have a list of production costs for a bunch of miners?
DeleteIf it turns out Vitamin Water Zero is bad for me I'll commit suicide.
ReplyDeleteSeems like zero should be nearly free.
DeleteAUMN - This has to be oversold here....
ReplyDelete3.79 is your gap fill for HEK.
ReplyDeleteMight even retest the lower trend line?
DeleteCP, I'm sure BC is aware of the supply / demand characteristics of the market. You can see them on KITCO and other sites. All of the gold bugs who are predicting an increase in prices are counting on the increase in demand to swamp the supply increase and drive prices up. There is no other way this can happen as supply changes are much slower in mining. They beleive that all this money printing will deflate the currency and people will want to own gold as protection. I personally think we are past this - gold went from $280 to $1,900 because of these fears. The fears seem to be receding.
ReplyDeleteWhat does institutional ownership look like, seems high to me. They've ridden these miners down, or are they short and/or writing puts?
DeleteI cannot disagree we're past the rush into gold, based on price action it appears the rush has been out. Perhaps the rush out will persist, and gold prices will continue falling. What about institutional ownership?
Some metals won't fall, I guess, like maybe phosphorus.
Oops, phosphorus isn't a metal, my bad.
DeleteI don't think I've had a DPZ in 20 years.
ReplyDeleteSilver - This one was what, $14 pre-crisis, so why wouldn't it return to that price or lower(more silver is coming out of the ground now)?
ReplyDeleteThus if this happened, a drop under $14, to say, maybe even $7, then great numbers of these juniors would likely go belly up.
At what point do the institutionals dump, $7 silver?
On the bright side though, by the time silver reaches $7, David might have saved enough cash and payed off his line of margin enough to load up at the bottom. ;)
DeleteBMO has a report which shows that the silver market needs over 100 million ounces a year to be taken out of the market into investments in order for the market to remain in balance. If investors stop buying, or worse, start selling, you could see some pretty big price drops.
DeleteAgreed BB, I intend to respect the trend if for no other reason b/c it is what it is until it's no longer what it wasn't.
DeletePMT - GTC sell order $25.63 My plan involves selling this one at $25.63, BTW, because I intend on either 1) not holding PMT anymore if they don't increase the dividend, or 2) possibly buy it back lower and concentrate on something else while awaiting the washout.
ReplyDelete2) That'd be GMO BTW, quite likely.
Deleteumm holy shit Nikkei and USD/JPY.
ReplyDeleteCorrect, why'd they wait so long? All global governments shuld adopt the corporate model and revert to operating as businesses instead of bizarre, nebulous entities.
DeleteRLGY - Is there anything bizarre about this article, the significance of the relationships aren't connecting in my head:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/nrts-coldwell-banker-residential-real-132015110.html
Bloomberg video...
ReplyDeleteA ton of gold found in Switzerland bound car at Italian border. Is Italy the next Cyprus or is this just 'routine' money laundering?
My guess is he's taking it to market, in order to sell before the price falls much more.
DeleteCan't imagine putting a ton of gold in a car, hope it wasn't a Fiat Tipo.
Maybe he shoulda chartered a yacht and taken his gold to Cyprus, seems depositors are rushing to Cyprus?
DeleteSomebody is expecting something....
ReplyDeleteSAND up 3.63%
Same thing they've been expecting since Oct of last year?
DeleteBIDU - When your hot, your hot. When your not, you ain't shit.
ReplyDeleteFIG looks excellent on this pullback.
ReplyDeleteGood eye, right at the 50SMA, too.
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fj5k6toS7i8
ReplyDeleteI think I hear a heartbeat, better give the victim another couple stabs....
ReplyDeleteI still don't get why people think this market is looking iffy. The leadership stocks are industrials, transports, and small caps. All of them broke to new all time highs and are pulling back to the old highs. How is this bad? Landry looks for this and yet he's saying that the small caps are breaking support? Huh?
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?chart=$RUT,uu[800,a]waclyyay[pb40!f][vc60][iue6,12,9!lj[$spx]]
I see support at 868.
INDUSTRIALS:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?chart=$INDU,uu[800,a]waclyyay[pb40!f][vc60][iue6,12,9!lj[$spx]]
TRANSPORTS:
http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$TRAN&p=W&b=5&g=0&i=t76316389865&r=1365106743008
I think the S&P follows suit soon enough.
You're probably a couple hours ahead of Landry.
DeleteRecall how he resisted bullish tendencies a few months back, he was late, or waited for confirmation?
DeleteI don't know which stocks he watches?
Take GV for instance, the recent SA article(well done research, IMO) sent this one into a tailspin at just the right moment, which could've been coincidental.
People are watching copper, too, and wondering what's going on there. I think BB did a fair job in his assessment, plus copper rose during China's massive build out at a time when the global economy was booming, metals supplies were stretched and mining became rather bulbous?
DeleteYou know, if you want to understand what he is looking at you just have to subscribe to his morning email. Guessing won't help. Are you screening a few thousand stocks per day? All of the sectors? All of the indices? He is.
DeleteHe isn't watching any particular stocks, he is watching ALL of them, but especially those that fit his screens. They have to be liquid, they have to be more volatile than the overall market and they have to then be forming one of several trading patterns he screens for.
You can look at a weekly chart and get a late signal, or you can watch a daily chart and see the russell is trading below the 50 dma.
Should you panic? No. Should you keep an eye on it? I think that would be prudent.
___________________________________________________________________________________________
Got Random Thoughts
"Lately I've been complaining about the poor internals. Now you know why.
The recent rally has been based on thin leadership. This is never a good thing.
The Ps got whacked on Wednesday. This is a major bummer because it puts them back into their shorter-term sideways trading range.
The Quack looks worse. It is now towards the bottom of its range.
Even worse is the Rusty. It continued to break down and is now trading below its 50-day moving average.
As you would imagine, the internals are ugly. The breadth is bad.
Many sectors have lost steam and quite a few have rolled over. Only a handful ended higher on Wednesday-and not by much.
Foreign shares continue to slide.
Even Gold slid. This suggests wholesale selling with a lack of flight to safety.
Is it the end of the world? Well, you know me. I'm a one day at a time type of guy. And yesterday was ugly. It didn't surprise me though. Again, internally it has been ugly for a while.
Don't panic. DO pay attention. This is a serious developing situation. You don't really need me to draw big blue up arrows when the market is going swimmingly about its way. You do need me-or someone like me-to point out clues that things are beginning to turn. Now, again, don't panic. A few big up days would make all the difference in the world. If that happens sooner rather than later we can breathe a collective sigh of relief.
Honor your stops on existing longs. Be very selective on new ones. And, above all, wait for entries. Let's not sell the farm just yet, but get ready to get ready on the short side just in case."
" Are you screening a few thousand stocks per day?"
DeleteI feel like I've screened at least 1000 stocks today, I'm beat.
Employment in the morning, right?
ReplyDeleteDid some selling today. Working to get rid of stocks I am not excited about and to raise some cash. Plan to not rush in with this, but to wait for some really good opportunities and be more disciplined. Not looking to get out of the market as I think this bull still runs a long time and am still about 90% in stocks, but more just getting rid of the low conviction stocks to be ready.
ReplyDeleteSold insurer MFC (taking some profits after the strong run they've had) and 2 energy companies (CVE and ECA) that I've held since 2004.
I added to some smallcap energy stocks recently, but don't want to get too large in energy as I am starting to wonder if the commodity run we've had the last 12 years may be really turning down including energy.
BB - Since last year when oil turned down and never reached new highs despite the market reaching new highs I've been thinking that the energy bull market might be over. I think it's just like any other sector bull market. It's going through a cycle. The past 13 years have been a massive bull market. If the energy bull market is over then that would benefit companies that are highly oil dependent. Perhaps that is part of the reason transports have been doing so well.
DeleteThere are some pretty convincing arguments out there which claim no material increase of crude oil production in seven years, despite oil prices having doubled.
DeleteIt does tie nicely together, especially the nice move in the airlines which are hugely dependent on fuel prices.
DeleteThe last 10 years of high priced commodities has caused the development on new technologies, like horizontal fracing, to go after expensive oil. These projects are probably cost-justified on $60 or $80 oil, so there is a floor somewhere here that oil won't go below and no way I see it going back to $20. And I think it is different than nat gas as nat gas is often a by-product, not the primary product like oil, and the oil wells will be shut in more quickly than nat gas was if prices fall to far.
But same issue as the miners, you are going to have to be a better stock picker in energy going forward if this is correct. I think I do want to hold some energy as a hedge against inflation, but it will be easier to make money in areas of the market in bull trends.
CP - US oil consumption has been declining for a few years now and US production is increasing. Canadian production is increasing as well. The incremental demand is coming from China, but I believe Saudi had to cut production significantly in the last few months to keep the market in check. It is possible Chinese demand overwhelms US conservation and prices do go up, but there is also a lot of talk about how applying North American technologies in other countries could increase oil production a lot as well.
DeleteCP - I agree I also doubt oil gets much below $60 or so (not really sure what the level is but definitely not back down to the $20's unless some sort of graphene enabled engine is developed that charges within a minute and holds charges for long periods of time). I think it will be a lot like copper...
DeleteGrantham says we never go back to cheap oil.
DeleteThe other day I was watching a video presentation on several oilers injecting pressurized CO2 into wells (old and new) and getting a lot more oil from wells previously thought to be exhausted. They are doing this enough that they are looking for sources of CO2 like coal fired plants that are happy to get rid of the stuff. As long as they keep it underground it's relatively harmless. Right now (other than in the atmosphere) it is turning into a valuable commodity. I wonder how long it will be before they get the sense to capture atmospheric CO2 and use it to increase oil production while sequestering the carbon.
"I wonder how long it will be before they get the sense to capture atmospheric CO2 "
DeleteMaybe sometime after Beijing gets their smog problem under control?
US has reportedly decreased the vehicle fleet fuel consumption by nearly half.
Super capacitor uses doped graphene for the plates, but what about the insulator, it always boils down to the insulator thickness, as that's where the storage capacity is most limited, if the insulator is infinitely thin then the capacitance will also be:
DeleteCapacitance - Area/Distance between two plates.
Even so, there's no reason automobiles that drive short distances daily couldn't use some sort of battery if the battery was capable of outlasting the vehicle.
Today Lockhart echoed Williams on FED wrapping up QE this year?
ReplyDelete