Thursday, April 4, 2013
04/04/13 My fair share of abuse
Had I held my positions another day, my losses would have been cut by 60% (RYPMX closed up +2.6%). The miners caught a bid following the morning selloff (or a morning run on sell stops if you’re cynical). It’s all good. I post all outcomes for the simple reason that in order to trade successfully, I have to be brutally honest when reviewing each move. In this case, I can’t say I would do anything differently next time> I opened a position following a -6% decline in miners over 2 days, and based on past experience, that setup has been (and should remain) profitable- whereas ‘doubling down’ or ‘holding in hopes of a rebound’ usually leads to untenable situations.
Having said that, I seem to be posting more often along the lines of not doing anything differently. Maybe the 'message' here is that things have changed, and I need to start paying attention. Sometimes you just might find...
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Just walk like a giant.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtvT4Z7VsSk
remember those retracement levels i mentioned on the dry bulk shippers? time to take a look at them and consider opening positions. then again, maybe all this talk of lower energy consumption etc is bad for them longer term? charts say they have bottomed regardless of our opinions. the pullback in several of these are intriguing. given that fundamental improvement appears to be a ways away, though, if we go long it's in piecemeal as i wouldn't rule out a test of lows.
ReplyDeletelooks like BALT is honing in on the 78.6% retracement and the trendline up from the lows. YRCW is close to the 78.6% retracement of the recent move but I like the fundamentals way way better. There's a clear path to profitability in the not too distant future barring a negative outcome from the ABFS lawsuit against them.
DeleteDry bulk is energy dependent? Perhaps in terms of coal and iron ore?
DeleteBTW, the formula for a capacitor is C=A/d, where C is capacitance, A is the area of the two plates, and d is the distance between the two plates.
Make d infinitely small and your capacitance becomes infinitely large. Doped graphene plates sound cool, and thin plates will help to make reduce total package size when rolling the three layers, but it's the insulator that gives you the bang for your buck. Take an infinitely thin insulator and deposit a conductive film(why not gold, there's plenty and it conducts well!) on either side.
TOF - Did I mistake your comment yesterday about NOK being a better play than YRCW? Just as I began salivating over YRCW, you kinda pissed all over it.
Delete"TOF - Did I mistake your comment yesterday about NOK being a better play than YRCW? Just as I began salivating over YRCW, you kinda pissed all over it."
Deletehell no. If i thought that I surely would have sold on the spike. I see it as a two year hold that could return 10X. but i know some of you guys don't like taking as much risk as i do so in that case NOK is probably better. The stop out point is pretty obvious with a close below $3.2. That's a low risk trade in my opinion.
Oh, okay then still on the table. 10x for a 2 year hold don't sound so bad to me, I kinda like YRCW better.
DeleteI see QCOM teams up with FB.....
Nikkei up +4%?
ReplyDeleteBOJ saves the day, QEeeeeeeeeeeei, baby!
Deletethis actually occurred yesterday i believe after the market there closed. the futures for the nikkei (/nkd) showed a 700 point move for the day today.
DeleteWho's on the losing end of the stick here?
DeleteI mean the last time I checked, it's not possible to create something out of nothing.
Delete(a) The cost of all imports just spiked. I'm guessing more than one manufacturing company in Japan uses imported goods.
Delete(b) Anyone living on a fixed income just got ----ed. They can eat dog food.
"Who's on the losing end of the stick here? " "creating something out of nothing"
DeleteI guess they're trying to create employment, BOJ just gave foreign workers a salary increase by handing Japanese workers a pay cut?
2nd - All exporters will do well. That's the reason why SNE was a screaming buy at $11. It probably still is a very good buy.
Delete"The commodities supercycle, or longer-than-average period of rising prices, is over, Citigroup Inc. said in a November report. China, the biggest user of everything from copper to cotton to coal, is slowing and years of higher prices encouraged more supply, the bank said. The retreat in raw materials in February reinforced that view, Ed Morse, the global head of commodities research in New York, said in an e-mail March 25. "
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-01/raw-material-bull-market-fading-as-supply-expands-commodities.html
ReplyDelete"Truckless $20 Billion Venture Seen Key to Vale Revival: Freight
Vale SA (VALE5) is replacing trucks with 23 miles of conveyor belts and building a second railway through the Amazon to cut costs and retake the title of world’s second- largest mining company by value from Rio Tinto Group (RIO).
Vale’s Serra Sul project, part of the Carajas mining complex in northern Brazil, is the industry’s most expensive project ever at almost $20 billion. It will also be the first major iron-ore venture to fully replace in-mine trucks with conveyor belts, according to the miner. The project, which has absorbed $1.8 billion in investment so far, will allow Vale to reduce mine-to-port costs at Carajas to about $15 per ton, half the company’s current operational cost. "
JO - JO rising?
ReplyDeleteKnightsbridge Tankers: Moves to expand fleet with 2 Cape newbuilds; PO to $7
ReplyDeleteHDSN - Maybe a majority of the freeze is done.
ReplyDeleteUnemployment 7.6, 188,000, "well below expectations"
ReplyDeleteCanada sheds 54,500 jobs.
ReplyDeleteGold - Looks like it stopped at Peter Brandt's $1550 off the cliff line in the sand?
ReplyDelete1563 - Bulls need 1563, like a hog needs slop.
ReplyDeleteCape Canaveral handing out pink slips.
ReplyDeleteAbout 100,000 of them?
DeleteSay what, 100,000? One article says hundreds.
DeleteI was joking. The jobs # consensus was about 188,000.
DeleteFor a net of 88,000, you're such a bozo! ;)
DeleteWhen does global stimulus begin trickling down, never?
ReplyDeletePKX - Perfect storm for this puppy.
ReplyDeleteOnly medical doctors should be addresses as such.
ReplyDeleteSteady, bros.
ReplyDeleteThere's too much mind ---- in the markets this morning.
DeleteAgreed, buying opportunity IMO. Gonna wait till next week though, to give the bears time to beat their chests, distribute weekend articles, and convince stragglers we're doomed.
DeleteWTF? I just got hit on the head by an acorn!
DeleteHang out with squirrels and that'll happen.
DeleteYou mean it wasn't the sky?
DeleteIn looking at past 4 years there seems to be weaker jobs numbers in the April to July period. This year it's one month earlier. This report and the other reports this week just reinforces my belief that the market will go higher. It hurts sentiment enough to keep people on the sidelines yet they all show growth yet are not strong enough to keep the Fed on the sidelines. Any pullbacks will continue to be bear traps IMO.
ReplyDeleteAlright back to drinking...
Coffee?
DeleteMark, your port's having a green day, LOL! ;)
ReplyDeleteYRCW - Sure looks like a rocket launch coming.
ReplyDeleteNice little pullback in SNE on hold up in anti-trust delay nonsense with China and some unidentified eastern European backwater over a medical device joint venture with SNE and Olympus.
ReplyDeleteStill a lot of news about the new console and medical devices (obviously imaging with Olympus) should be a money maker. Not to mention the yen is getting slaughtered today.
Here's the positive spin:
ReplyDeleteJobs numbers missed by 100K, but last 2 months revised plus 80K, so really a 20K miss.
The big part of the miss was retail jobs (drop of 24K vs. growth of 32K previous average). Probably tax delay /payroll related, not saying economy is tanking. Professional and Business services the big winner - these are the high-paying jobs. Construction, also key to the economy up.
Plus, as TOF says, could just be a seasonal or reporting thing.
Ritholtz: "Hence, our conclusion in advance of the Employment Situation is that we will get news, and it will be either Good or Bad, which will be interpreted in the context of cross currents of growth and Central Bank policy and sentiment, from which traders derive an investment thesis that Good or Bad news will be either Good or Bad for stocks. Lights will flash, bells and whistles will go off, and they will make their trades accordingly.
DeleteOf course, the NFP will get revised next month, and then again the following month, and then updated in a quarter and re-benchmarked in a year. It often ends up looking nothing like the original data release.
And that is why the Employment Situation report is the most overrated economic data point of the month."
AA - Earnings Monday, could get interesting.
ReplyDeleteMy take would be 'buy um'...but I'm already long enough in thinly traded issues...and my foot hurts.
ReplyDeleteAt least I don't have crap falling on my head.
DeleteHarlan wants to go buy fireworks.
DeleteI think I'll have a piece of gum.
DeleteIt's hard to tell if it's Mark talking here, or Harlan.
DeleteGo blow something up with fireworks, bottle rocket taped to a small toy car.
DeleteMake a tennis ball cannon and use some naptha as fuel, even cheaper.
DeleteHave you noticed that every time, every single freaking time traders who buy miners on opening strength get the ---- kicked out of them an hour later. It never fails.
ReplyDeleteVALE - LOL!
ReplyDeleteCoal and natty working also.
DeleteI'm unable to log on to the sister site this morning.
ReplyDeleteMe either. Convenient, eh?
DeleteMaybe the wrong guy got ticked off.
DeleteThat was what I was thinking too. Either that or they are so embarrassed they will claim they were hacked.
DeleteNothing to be embarrassed about this morning. Dollar's down, gold's up.
DeleteMiners are a different story. GDX now in the red.
DeleteUsing miners as a hedge against long the underlying?
DeleteLast I checked in, the Jonesers were buying MUX at $3.90
Deletehaha nice funny comments above. you guys see the action in ZNGA and the coal stocks? head scratchers for sure.
ReplyDeleteTA: been the best stock that I follow for the past month plus
ReplyDeleteMan, those places have been packed for months, not sure business really ever slowed down. How the heck they ever got into trouble I'll probably never understand.
DeleteAn email from Dan Quayle this morning: It's a terrible thing for investors to ---- their minds.
ReplyDeleteWell, he did type mineds, but I cleaned it up.
DeleteI think he was trying to say it's terrible to see investors in the mining sector lose their minds.
DeletePotatoe?
DeleteI had a dream N. Korea won the war...
ReplyDeleteOh ----, man. That's called a nightmare.
DeleteYeah, they'd be in real trouble then.
DeleteAtlanta - Teachers receive bonus for outperformance in effective teacher initiative program.
ReplyDeleteEWZ may be worth paying attention to, long
ReplyDeletejuniors out performing majors, weekend covering?
ReplyDeleteGold - Nothing new from what I can tell, it always falls out of it's channel briefly, on occasion.
ReplyDeleteNatty at $4.12, eh?
ReplyDeleteThe pullback in BALT is still not large enough to call the rally that started in December a "fake." But it is significant enough to shake all weak hands out. So, for the heck of it, I just bought 400 more shares at $3.59. If Wilbur Ross is adding another 1 billion to his position in the shippers, I can add another 1K, right? :)
ReplyDeleteI listined to his actual interview at http://www.bloomberg.com/video/wilbur-ross-on-shipping-industry-europe-s-banks-TffC6RAwQO6M8o2NHdGt~w.html.
DeleteHe is specifically targetting the LNG type ships and says it is a bit early for the other types of shippers. His company is called NVIGF, but it up from $28 to $42 and book value is arouind $32, so probably not the best.
Another one I was looking at is Stealth Gas (GASS). It's a Greek company, but shipping seems to be one of the things Greece does well, trades at about 75% of book, 6 P/E, reasonable debt. It's also had a good move, but at least there is better valuation support there.
Ross is "rolling up" the Handymax LNG market and trying to get to a good size to get some pricing power it seems. His ships around around 23,000 cubic meters, where GASSis around 7,000 cubic meters, so I'm not sure if this is the same market or not. GASS talks about the growth opportunity to ship from US LNG to Carribean countries who need gas.
Sure natty ain't going to $8?
DeleteYRCW - Now I'm wondering if the next stop is $6.20
ReplyDeletecould be. the thing went up 65% in 2 weeks and has since fallen 30% in 3 weeks so anything is possible.
DeleteI wonder about it only b/c it dipped under $6.80
DeleteFIG - This could well be the best price we get, $4 would be nice, though.
ReplyDeleteWow - how did one of the supposedly best money managers go from $30 to $6?
Delete50% retracement from lows is $4.90. That was support after the run in early Jan. That would be a nice yield right there.
DeleteSame way oil went to $30? I'm not sure what your point is....
DeleteThese guys are supposed to be "smart money" and able to make money in pretty much any environment. They actually lost money 5 years in a row.
DeletePMT - Okay, my GTC sell @ $25.63 is complete now.
ReplyDeletePotatoehead mission accomplished!
Was that a winner loser?!
Delete...winner OR loser :)
DeleteTwo piece chicken dinner!
DeleteI bet you could improve on the combustion chamber purge system beyond this description:
Deletehttp://www.ourvictorianhouse.com/nuker.html
RLGY - Bear or bull flag?
ReplyDeleteCome on BABY!!!!!
ReplyDeleteFFIV - Ouchie.
ReplyDeleteDr. Noseworthy? Not even close to Dick Sweat, but not bad.
ReplyDeleteor is it Knowsworthy?
ReplyDeleteNotesworthy?
DeleteSID/GGB/VALE - Any chance these are sold enuff yet?
ReplyDeleteGuys, I think it's time to look at the student loan companies. FMD was one on my watch list. Chart looks solid.
ReplyDelete"Highlights
Consumer credit is surging but outside of student loans, it looks flat. Consumer credit jumped $18.1 billion in February for the largest increase in nearly 13 years and following a revised $12.7 billion in January.
But gains continue to be confined almost entirely to non-revolving credit, in part reflecting strong vehicle sales but largely reflecting a continuing surge in student loans. Non-revolving credit rose $17.6 billion in February, vs $11.1 billion in January and December's near record $18.3 billion.
The February gain for revolving credit, the category that includes credit cards, is very thin, at $0.5 billion in February following a $1.7 billion gain in January which together come up shy against December's $4.4 billion contraction.
Consumer credit is climbing sharply but little of it, outside of autos, points to rising spending habits. "
$WTIC - Looks like this one damn near broke out to the upside this week, prompting me to ask: Where's my cheap gasoline?
ReplyDeleteRES - This one looks good if you happen to believe the forthcoming gush of fresh crude is pure BS.
ReplyDelete