“Currently, the situation seems to be much more serious than previous cases of bird flu, although still no comparison to the SARS [Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome] in spring 2003. The ongoing bird flu could have sizeable impact on the economy, so investors [are] justified to be cautious,” said Ting Lu, a China economist at B. of A. Merrill Lynch.
'While environmental clean-up and agricultural authorities scrambled to remove the unsightly corpses and provide the anxious public with less-than-believable explanations for their demise, a seemingly separate human drama was unfolding. On Feb. 19, a man identified by Xinhua, China's state news agency, only as Li, an 87-year old retiree, was hospitalized in Shanghai with severe respiratory distress and pneumonia. On March 4, Li went into severe cardio-respiratory failure and succumbed.
'On Feb. 27, a man identified only as Wu, a 27-year-old butcher or meat processor, fell ill with respiratory distress, was hospitalized, and died on March 10. The day Wu succumbed a third individual, a 35-year-old woman identified as Han, was hospitalized in the city of Nanjing, though she came from distant Chuzhou City, in Anhui province, about 300 miles northwest of Shanghai. Han is reportedly in critical condition, in intensive care. To date, no connection between the three individuals has been found.
'The elderly Li may have been part of a family cluster of illness, as his 55-year old son died of pneumonia in March, and another 67-year-old son suffered respiratory distress, but has survived.
'On March 31 -- Easter in the United States -- China's newly created National Health and Family Planning Commission (which includes the former Ministry of Health) announced that 87-year-old Li, Wu, and Han all were infected with a form of influenza denoted as H7N9 -- a type of flu never previously known to infect human beings. The commission insisted that Li's two sons (one dead, the other a survivor) were not infected with the flu virus -- their ailments were reportedly coincidental, though they occurred at the same time as the elder Li's demise.'
" The Self-Serving Bias: The self-serving bias is people’s tendency to attribute positive events to their own skills but attribute negative events to external factors."
20. Delusions: Holding a fixed, false belief despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
33. Failure to consider alternative explanations: Coming up with one explanation for why something has happened/happens and failing to consider alternative, more likely explanations.
34. The Self-Serving Bias The self-serving bias is people’s tendency to attribute positive events to their own skills but attribute negative events to external factors.
I'm expert at circular reasoning, I once wrote a program in machine code that modified it's own executable code as it was running. I got really burned out writing some other strange programs that disappeared somehow, wish I could find them but I think they deleted themselves to make space. Memory was just as hard to come by then as it is today, maybe harder, I can't remember.
Lower Level US $447.00 - US $597.00 US $447.00 Ticket + US $26.65 Fees = US $473.65 Limited Availability at this Price for this Option No Tickets Currently Available at this Price for this Option – Try "Find Resale Tickets" Below US $597.00 Ticket + US $26.65 Fees = US $623.65 Limited Availability at this Price for this Option No Tickets Currently Available at this Price for this Option – Try "Find Resale Tickets" Below
Main Floor US $597.00 US $597.00 Ticket + US $26.65 Fees = US $623.65 Limited Availability at this Price for this Option No Tickets Currently Available at this Price for this Option – Try "Find Resale Tickets" Below
Upper Level US $147.00 - US $247.00 US $147.00 Ticket + US $21.20 Fees = US $168.20 Limited Availability at this Price for this Option No Tickets Currently Available at this Price for this Option – Try "Find Resale Tickets" Below US $247.00 Ticket + US $25.50 Fees = US $272.50
'H7N9 is troubling, as it has mutated so that it is now harmful to humans. Over the weekend, the number of cases rose from 16 to 21, mainly in Shanghai. So far there have [been] six deaths, which looks like an alarming fatality rate.
'There has at least been no confirmation of the virus spreading from human to human, which was what made SARS so deadly a decade ago.'
Gold leads the way? - Maybe we can say that equities will trend upward as long as gold isn't flat-out crashing?
Hey, where's my cheap gasoline?@?!?@@@???
Assuming $WTIC does go bazooka(almost broke to upside this month?), that means shale can't cut the mustard and offshore oil production should really gush?
Today I feel as though I'm involuntarily long AA, LOL! The CEO's words from last earnings are still rattling around in my head "The market is overreacting".
Craig- When you have time, if you could post a chart of the below I'd appreciate it!
'For those of you who were wondering about OGRes, Friday wasn't a perfect one but it was certainly tradable-nearly a gift. Pull up your 5 min. charts and notice that the market never did take out the first 5 minute bar-you're welcome. Study this chart carefully. Then the next time you see the futures getting whacked, watch (don't trade!) the action in the indices. Do this a few times until you gain confidence. Of course it doesn't always work but as you can see, it pays when it does.'
It's basically a daily knock-out on the open, a big gap down and then a reversion to the mean. Your internal 'fear meter' with a 5 minute-one day chart would serve you well.
"Met Coal: continues the shift toward monthly/index pricing The shift toward shorter-term pricing for met coal was reinforced last week with a Platts article confirming “several Australian met coal miners have offered monthly-priced long-term contracts to European steelmakers following widespread buyer dissatisfaction with the 2Q benchmark signed in Asia at $172/mt FOB.” BHP Billiton-Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) has offered monthly pricing for some time, with Anglo and Peabody reportedly offering monthly contracts. Our European steel analyst, Cedar Ekblom notes that most large European mills are already on monthly contracts, with some buying a substantial portion on the spot market. We also note that the pressure to change contract frequency toward lower priced spot confirms current market softness in met coal pricing, which has collapsed over US$21/t to US$151.50/mt F OB Australia for premium low-vol HCC."
"2. Base & Precious metals Gold equities have come under pressure over the past 1-2 months on concerns of 1) weaker investor sentiment on physical gold, and 2) absence of new buyers based on the belief that an improving US economy would lead to early removal of QE. Based on our analysis of core NPVs, we have analysed NPV at risk for gold miners (i.e. % difference between base and core NPVs). NCM, PRU and RRL rank top of the pack with the lowest NPV at risk (12.5%, 14% and 15.6% respectively), while producers such as KCN and SAR have significantly higher NPV at risk of >30%. On base metals, nickel (WSA and IGO) and aluminium/alumina (AWC) companies have lowest NPV at risk due to higher LT prices than current ST forecasts, while copper producers are at greatest risk due to the high ST copper price forecasts."
They've moved to ST contracts and pricing, some are buying spot. I guessed they're buying the dip? BACML also says producers are trading below 2012 levels while the underlying is still priced higher than 2012 levels.
Producers have moved to shut in production(or so we're told?), this is helping to provide price support?
Economic activity around here seems to be robust, not falling off.
i love seeing stuff like this: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100623607?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo
again, the best thing that could have happened for bulls was friday's jobs report. i best we trade sideways for another couple of months. all longer term moving averages move up, any excess bullishness is worked off, and then we rip higher. there are so many naysayers still after this huge run since 2009, which is the perfect backdrop for higher prices over time.
"i bet we trade sideways" that is...this would be an ideal way to work off fears of excessive bullishness and not give sideliners a chance to enter at panic prices.
I want an offshore energy play, thinking of TDW or CKH but not sure what their balance sheets look like in terms of growth potential. I think the fundamentals are positive.
i can't wait! preparing my tin foil hat and will be starting up a blog soon about how the pumptards, the fed, and the banksters are all in cahoots. if anyone else has any other oft-used skeptic terms they can throw my way that would be most excellent.
TCK - 12mo PO lowered from $43 to $39, my tin-foil friends! ;)
"Teck Resources Ltd: Weak 2013 outlook lowers PO. NT met coal trends support Buy 2/8/2013 4:11 AM
We reiterate TCK Buy rating. However we lowered our PO 5% to C$39/share due to a weaker than expected 2013 operating outlook. M&A on horizon- Near term met coal price outlook supports Buy rating."
HBM provided a R&R update, increasing its copper eq. reserves and resources of 12% and 115%. We expect the impact to be minimal to our HBM valuation. Maintain Buy on valuation, risks are embedded"
CVV - Congestion area. Honestly, I'm really surprised AMAT hasn't just crushed this company, hard to believe but perhaps the OLED market is too small to garner interest from AMAT?
Molecular Beam Epitaxy (MBE) isn't always easy to do well depending on the application, vacuum levels for some of the metal processes require strict vacuum chamber hygiene or it's a no-go. That is, after you get all your automation challenges sorted out. Maybe the LED metal layer isn't a huge challenge, not sure.
MKSI - Probably a decent way to catch a semiconductor rebound might be this one, their stuff goes into a fairly large percentage of semiconductor processing equipment.
"Yingli has made good progress controlling costs Credit is due to Yingli for continuing to squeeze processing costs, which at $0.48 per watt in Q4 are among the best in the industry. The company is still saddled with uncompetitive internal polysilicon supply, which is dragging overall poly costs up, but even taking that into account we can see total blended cost per watt at $0.58 this year and $0.53 next. That should allow Yingli to generate sufficient cash while the company waits for demand to grow into available supply, even with the lower pricing that we expect from the Chinese market. What’s it worth? Half of next’s year revenue in our opinion Book value is eroding, and Yingli looks like it may not be profitable this year or next. Valuing this company is difficult. We note that in our past experience with struggling commodity electronics companies, 50% of revenue has been a bottoming point, at least for companies that look like they’re going to survive the business cycle. Solar module stocks have gone lower than that, both because of the severity of this downturn and because it’s been difficult for the market to identify the eventual survivors. We believe companies like Yingli and Trina are survivors, though, and revenue has begun to stabilize. We believe that 50% of 2014 is a reasonable benchmark, which supports our $7 price objective."
For the heck of it, I have just picked up 40 contracts of October $2.50 calls on AUMN at $0.25. AUMN can get up to my breakeven price of $2.75 in a few days, and if the 2-year support levels for gold/silver hold, then they must have a significant rally soon (since they are sitting right at those support levels), which should definitely take AUMN above $3, and possibly above $4. That would be some return on these calls. :)
wow. so many high fliers on my watchlist from a month ago got crushed over the past few weeks and lots of them are at very attractive entry points. SPWR, FIG, WFR, FSLR, ZNGA, BYD, etc...
doing nothing in the market. Actually I was busy all day. I wonder if our buddy Warren Buffet is looking for a $10-20 bill market cap natural gas producer?
I was careful this time, TOF, and started my statement with "IF the 2-year support levels hold", which is like saying that "IF gold/silver have bottomed, then the only direction they can move, by assumption, is UP."
Greenspan's been streaking around again wearing just his halo, although it hasn't helped the cause...... Was there ever a time when he appeared, gold would climb a bit, or not?
Basically, even I don't 'believe' it. But I'm alert to the possibility.
ReplyDeleteRemember H5N1? Now it's H7N9,
ReplyDeletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/05/china-reports-another-bird-flu-death-airline-stocks-slump/
“Currently, the situation seems to be much more serious than previous cases of bird flu, although still no comparison to the SARS [Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome] in spring 2003. The ongoing bird flu could have sizeable impact on the economy, so investors [are] justified to be cautious,” said Ting Lu, a China economist at B. of A. Merrill Lynch.
On top of the dead pigs.
Deletehttp://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/04/01/is_this_a_pandemic_being_born_china_pigs_virus?page=0,0
'While environmental clean-up and agricultural authorities scrambled to remove the unsightly corpses and provide the anxious public with less-than-believable explanations for their demise, a seemingly separate human drama was unfolding. On Feb. 19, a man identified by Xinhua, China's state news agency, only as Li, an 87-year old retiree, was hospitalized in Shanghai with severe respiratory distress and pneumonia. On March 4, Li went into severe cardio-respiratory failure and succumbed.
Delete'On Feb. 27, a man identified only as Wu, a 27-year-old butcher or meat processor, fell ill with respiratory distress, was hospitalized, and died on March 10. The day Wu succumbed a third individual, a 35-year-old woman identified as Han, was hospitalized in the city of Nanjing, though she came from distant Chuzhou City, in Anhui province, about 300 miles northwest of Shanghai. Han is reportedly in critical condition, in intensive care. To date, no connection between the three individuals has been found.
'The elderly Li may have been part of a family cluster of illness, as his 55-year old son died of pneumonia in March, and another 67-year-old son suffered respiratory distress, but has survived.
'On March 31 -- Easter in the United States -- China's newly created National Health and Family Planning Commission (which includes the former Ministry of Health) announced that 87-year-old Li, Wu, and Han all were infected with a form of influenza denoted as H7N9 -- a type of flu never previously known to infect human beings. The commission insisted that Li's two sons (one dead, the other a survivor) were not infected with the flu virus -- their ailments were reportedly coincidental, though they occurred at the same time as the elder Li's demise.'
Truth is indeed more horrifying than fiction.
DeleteDidn't the last bird flu epidemic occur near a top?
DeleteVE - This one has held up much better than I'd imagined, something positive going on or is the guillotine in motion?
ReplyDeleteNow I see Portland, OR is Jesse's fav too!!!
ReplyDeletePort likes Portland?
DeleteYep, that's what PORT stands for. 2015 is the date he's going to move there...although it used to be port2012. :)
DeleteI like Portland too, the weather's always very comfortable when it's not raining. And rain, it does, from my recollection.
DeleteThis sounds familiar.....
ReplyDelete" The Self-Serving Bias: The self-serving bias is people’s tendency to attribute positive events to their own skills but attribute negative events to external factors."
This should be mandatory reading.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/04/50-cognitive-distortions/
This is what you're probably thinking.
Delete20. Delusions: Holding a fixed, false belief despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.
33. Failure to consider alternative explanations: Coming up with one explanation for why something has happened/happens and failing to consider alternative, more likely explanations.
34. The Self-Serving Bias The self-serving bias is people’s tendency to attribute positive events to their own skills but attribute negative events to external factors.
Self-Serving Bias - So if skills don't matter, I can become a fat/lazy slob and it won't negatively impact my performance?
DeleteYep. I was thinking those things exactly. No further comment.
DeleteI'm expert at circular reasoning, I once wrote a program in machine code that modified it's own executable code as it was running. I got really burned out writing some other strange programs that disappeared somehow, wish I could find them but I think they deleted themselves to make space. Memory was just as hard to come by then as it is today, maybe harder, I can't remember.
DeleteBTU - I suppose if you didn't blink, and managed to load the boat with tons of options exactly at Friday's low, you made some money.
ReplyDeleteFD: Unfortunately, that wasn't me, LOL! ;)
Sure, I like the Stones. But come on.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.aeglive.com/artists/view/104878/the-rolling-stones
Lower Level
US $447.00 - US $597.00
US $447.00 Ticket + US $26.65 Fees =
US $473.65
Limited Availability at this Price for this Option No Tickets Currently Available at this Price for this Option – Try "Find Resale Tickets" Below
US $597.00 Ticket + US $26.65 Fees =
US $623.65
Limited Availability at this Price for this Option No Tickets Currently Available at this Price for this Option – Try "Find Resale Tickets" Below
Main Floor
US $597.00
US $597.00 Ticket + US $26.65 Fees =
US $623.65
Limited Availability at this Price for this Option No Tickets Currently Available at this Price for this Option – Try "Find Resale Tickets" Below
Upper Level
US $147.00 - US $247.00
US $147.00 Ticket + US $21.20 Fees =
US $168.20
Limited Availability at this Price for this Option No Tickets Currently Available at this Price for this Option – Try "Find Resale Tickets" Below
US $247.00 Ticket + US $25.50 Fees =
US $272.50
Go buy yourself an "Event Staff" T-shirt and you've got back stage access...
DeleteDoesn't work for me.
DeleteCan't get no satisfaction (no matter what you try)!
DeleteThat pretty much sums it up CP!
Deletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/have-hong-kong-stocks-caught-bird-flu-2013-04-07?link=MW_home_latest_news
ReplyDelete'H7N9 is troubling, as it has mutated so that it is now harmful to humans. Over the weekend, the number of cases rose from 16 to 21, mainly in Shanghai. So far there have [been] six deaths, which looks like an alarming fatality rate.
'There has at least been no confirmation of the virus spreading from human to human, which was what made SARS so deadly a decade ago.'
How do you know it's contagious if the air's so thick with smog you can't see your instruments, or even calibrate them?
Delete21 people dead out of 1 billion? how many died from car accidents?
DeleteCar accidents no longer qualify as artistic paranoia opportunities unless the insinuation directly targets a specific manufacturer.
Delete30% of California's smog was made in China.
Delete90% of California's background radiation was made in Japan.
DeleteUSEG - This one came back to us. GOT BALLS?
ReplyDeleteGold leads the way? - Maybe we can say that equities will trend upward as long as gold isn't flat-out crashing?
ReplyDeleteHey, where's my cheap gasoline?@?!?@@@???
Assuming $WTIC does go bazooka(almost broke to upside this month?), that means shale can't cut the mustard and offshore oil production should really gush?
INT - Looks like a possible entry opportunity.
ReplyDeleteI'll be on the road today, leaving in two hours. Based on what I see now, I won't be leaving with any positions in the trunk.
ReplyDeleteHave a good trip, be safe. Looking forward to a full trip report upon your return.
DeleteJust making rounds for the day (the other job).
DeleteToday I feel as though I'm involuntarily long AA, LOL! The CEO's words from last earnings are still rattling around in my head "The market is overreacting".
DeleteI too have always wondered what 'port2012' stood for. Should have guessed there would be at least an indirect reference to alcohol.
ReplyDeleteDo you guys know what Brandt had to say about RBOB gas? I can't find anything and I'd like to know if I'm ever gonna get my cheap gasoline.
ReplyDelete"You know what I think about grains, the Yen, RBOB Gas, Silver, Gold, U.S. stocks, the Aussie $ and about constructing a trade."
RBOB- Rotten Robbie Gas?
DeleteHa, RBOB is the gasoline contract. Spot price for reg unleaded, I think.
DeleteCraig- When you have time, if you could post a chart of the below I'd appreciate it!
ReplyDelete'For those of you who were wondering about OGRes, Friday wasn't a perfect one but it was certainly tradable-nearly a gift. Pull up your 5 min. charts and notice that the market never did take out the first 5 minute bar-you're welcome. Study this chart carefully. Then the next time you see the futures getting whacked, watch (don't trade!) the action in the indices. Do this a few times until you gain confidence. Of course it doesn't always work but as you can see, it pays when it does.'
Sure, or I'll send it to your email.
DeleteThank you.
DeleteIt's in your mail.
DeleteIt's basically a daily knock-out on the open, a big gap down and then a reversion to the mean.
Your internal 'fear meter' with a 5 minute-one day chart would serve you well.
From BACML weekly steel report:
ReplyDelete"Met Coal: continues the shift toward monthly/index pricing
The shift toward shorter-term pricing for met coal was reinforced last week with
a Platts article confirming “several Australian met coal miners have offered
monthly-priced long-term contracts to European steelmakers following
widespread buyer dissatisfaction with the 2Q benchmark signed in Asia at
$172/mt FOB.” BHP Billiton-Mitsubishi Alliance (BMA) has offered monthly
pricing for some time, with Anglo and Peabody reportedly offering monthly
contracts. Our European steel analyst, Cedar Ekblom notes that most large
European mills are already on monthly contracts, with some buying a
substantial portion on the spot market. We also note that the pressure to
change contract frequency toward lower priced spot confirms current market
softness in met coal pricing, which has collapsed over US$21/t to US$151.50/mt
F OB Australia for premium low-vol HCC."
Sounds like buyers are stepping up to plate?
DeleteSounds to me they expect lower pricing no?
DeleteThey also have this to say:
Delete"2. Base & Precious metals
Gold equities have come under pressure over the past 1-2 months on concerns of
1) weaker investor sentiment on physical gold, and 2) absence of new buyers
based on the belief that an improving US economy would lead to early removal of
QE. Based on our analysis of core NPVs, we have analysed NPV at risk for gold
miners (i.e. % difference between base and core NPVs). NCM, PRU and RRL
rank top of the pack with the lowest NPV at risk (12.5%, 14% and 15.6%
respectively), while producers such as KCN and SAR have significantly higher
NPV at risk of >30%. On base metals, nickel (WSA and IGO) and
aluminium/alumina (AWC) companies have lowest NPV at risk due to higher LT
prices than current ST forecasts, while copper producers are at greatest risk due
to the high ST copper price forecasts."
I have to say, those reports use more abbreviations I don't know than any other.
DeleteThey've moved to ST contracts and pricing, some are buying spot. I guessed they're buying the dip? BACML also says producers are trading below 2012 levels while the underlying is still priced higher than 2012 levels.
DeleteProducers have moved to shut in production(or so we're told?), this is helping to provide price support?
Economic activity around here seems to be robust, not falling off.
NPV is net present value.
DeleteAs long as I continue to think 'Black Monday,' it won't arrive.
ReplyDeleteYou don't know how much we appreciate that, thanks for keeping the subject from slipping off the page. ;)
DeleteDon't mention it.
Deletewe could use (and probably will get) a retest of the lows from Friday morning.
DeleteThe market, like any good hooker, knows how to suck you in.
ReplyDeletePMT is sucking 'em in as we speak.
DeleteI'm willing to call it a day here.
ReplyDeleteI think we'll all check back in after the close to a few surprises. Or not.
Deletei love seeing stuff like this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/100623607?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo
again, the best thing that could have happened for bulls was friday's jobs report. i best we trade sideways for another couple of months. all longer term moving averages move up, any excess bullishness is worked off, and then we rip higher. there are so many naysayers still after this huge run since 2009, which is the perfect backdrop for higher prices over time.
"i bet we trade sideways" that is...this would be an ideal way to work off fears of excessive bullishness and not give sideliners a chance to enter at panic prices.
DeleteI want an offshore energy play, thinking of TDW or CKH but not sure what their balance sheets look like in terms of growth potential. I think the fundamentals are positive.
DeleteI can't even figure out CKH's chart, 52wk prices are hugely mismatched depending on which source I reference.
DeleteOnce again, chasing miners at the open would have resulted in a blow to the solar plexus an hour later.
ReplyDeleteMaybe I should jump in.
Delete---- that. Nothing worse than getting beat up while on the road.
DeleteOutta here.
DeleteMUX is trading at 36% above the 52wk low while GLD and SLV are only a few percent above 52wk lows....
Deletehttp://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/are-the-markets-staring-at-a-massive-plunge.html/2/
ReplyDeletei can't wait! preparing my tin foil hat and will be starting up a blog soon about how the pumptards, the fed, and the banksters are all in cahoots. if anyone else has any other oft-used skeptic terms they can throw my way that would be most excellent.
Will you be charging a fee-based analysis?
DeleteI'll pay you! $1 for every time someone agrees with my articles!
DeleteIn that case I agree 10,000% in advance, prior to doning my foil toque! ;)
DeleteOn second thought, you can stuff it b/c it sounds like you're just trolling for boot lickers.
Deletehaha!
DeleteBALT - This one might find support here???
ReplyDeleteTCK - Alright, I guess if MET coal prices do take off, TCK should respond in kind.
ReplyDeleteTCK might be the ticket this month, assuming the stars are aligning?
I could be completely wrong, met could fall further?
TCK - 12mo PO lowered from $43 to $39, my tin-foil friends! ;)
Delete"Teck Resources Ltd: Weak 2013 outlook lowers PO. NT met coal trends support Buy
2/8/2013 4:11 AM
We reiterate TCK Buy rating. However we lowered our PO 5% to C$39/share due to a weaker than expected 2013 operating outlook. M&A on horizon- Near term met coal price outlook supports Buy rating."
HBM - Buy rating on this one as well, $12 1yr PO
Delete"HudBay Minerals Inc.: HBM R&R update, minimal impact to model. Maintain Buy
3/27/2013 9:48 PM
HBM provided a R&R update, increasing its copper eq. reserves and resources of 12% and 115%. We expect the impact to be minimal to our HBM valuation. Maintain Buy on valuation, risks are embedded"
NSC - This one year chart looks like IH&S with $20 upside, and the PE seems to agree. What's a normal PE for a railroad stock, 20 or 12?
ReplyDeleteCVV - Congestion area. Honestly, I'm really surprised AMAT hasn't just crushed this company, hard to believe but perhaps the OLED market is too small to garner interest from AMAT?
ReplyDeleteVECO as well.
DeleteMolecular Beam Epitaxy (MBE) isn't always easy to do well depending on the application, vacuum levels for some of the metal processes require strict vacuum chamber hygiene or it's a no-go. That is, after you get all your automation challenges sorted out. Maybe the LED metal layer isn't a huge challenge, not sure.
DeleteMKSI - Probably a decent way to catch a semiconductor rebound might be this one, their stuff goes into a fairly large percentage of semiconductor processing equipment.
DeleteFIG: I think it looks good.
ReplyDeleteGetting FIG-gy wit it.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSq_3kF5EcQ
That's probably the financial play I'm wanting. TKO last week to set up H&S and the whole nine yards to try scaring the bejesus out of onlookers.
DeleteOh brother....
DeleteHXM - Sorta looks like an upside down bear flag formed and now it's time for bears to beat feet or be eaten.
ReplyDeleteFull court parade of analysts downgraded this one a couple weeks ago, including GS.....
GV - Notice this one hasn't exactly collapsed, just keeps on inching up.
ReplyDeleteI meant VG of course, not GV GV has been crushed, arguably justifiably.
DeleteM-I-C...K-E-Y MOUSE.
ReplyDeletePart of my childhood died today.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-08/annette-funicello-tv-s-beloved-disney-mouseketeer-dies-at-70.html
I always feel a little sad to see some old TV history go.
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/video/i-want-the-old-david-stockman-back-crook-0amSbAu9QxyfH2vs83RnCg.html
ReplyDeleteugh. dammit i want my 6 minutes back!
DeleteYGE - OMG, BACML has an $7 target assigned to this one.
ReplyDelete3/5/13
Delete"Yingli has made good progress controlling costs
Credit is due to Yingli for continuing to squeeze processing costs, which at $0.48
per watt in Q4 are among the best in the industry. The company is still saddled
with uncompetitive internal polysilicon supply, which is dragging overall poly costs
up, but even taking that into account we can see total blended cost per watt at
$0.58 this year and $0.53 next. That should allow Yingli to generate sufficient
cash while the company waits for demand to grow into available supply, even with
the lower pricing that we expect from the Chinese market.
What’s it worth? Half of next’s year revenue in our opinion
Book value is eroding, and Yingli looks like it may not be profitable this year or
next. Valuing this company is difficult. We note that in our past experience with
struggling commodity electronics companies, 50% of revenue has been a
bottoming point, at least for companies that look like they’re going to survive the
business cycle. Solar module stocks have gone lower than that, both because of
the severity of this downturn and because it’s been difficult for the market to
identify the eventual survivors. We believe companies like Yingli and Trina are
survivors, though, and revenue has begun to stabilize. We believe that 50% of
2014 is a reasonable benchmark, which supports our $7 price objective."
Crap sandwiches for anyone who listened to the neanderthal chest beaters.
ReplyDeleteCheck this out, folks:
ReplyDeletehttp://etfdailynews.com/2013/04/08/silver-sentiment-reaches-extreme-levels/
For the heck of it, I have just picked up 40 contracts of October $2.50 calls on AUMN at $0.25. AUMN can get up to my breakeven price of $2.75 in a few days, and if the 2-year support levels for gold/silver hold, then they must have a significant rally soon (since they are sitting right at those support levels), which should definitely take AUMN above $3, and possibly above $4. That would be some return on these calls. :)
nothing MUST do anything David. but good luck!
Deletewow. so many high fliers on my watchlist from a month ago got crushed over the past few weeks and lots of them are at very attractive entry points. SPWR, FIG, WFR, FSLR, ZNGA, BYD, etc...
ReplyDeletei think it's safe to say TA is a strong stock now.
ReplyDeleteNikkei futures oh my! up 360.
ReplyDeleteSNE is probably going to rip higher at some point here...
Deletewell, sad day for us mouseketeer's.
ReplyDeletedoing nothing in the market. Actually I was busy all day. I wonder if our buddy Warren Buffet is looking for a $10-20 bill market cap natural gas producer?
"nothing MUST do anything David. but good luck!"
ReplyDeleteI was careful this time, TOF, and started my statement with "IF the 2-year support levels hold", which is like saying that "IF gold/silver have bottomed, then the only direction they can move, by assumption, is UP."
if / thens can get you in trouble too with this market:
Delete"if the market goes higher then my high beta stock must go apeshit!"
"if the fed announced QE eternity then gold stocks must go through the roof!"
Greenspan's been streaking around again wearing just his halo, although it hasn't helped the cause...... Was there ever a time when he appeared, gold would climb a bit, or not?
DeleteYRCW - Wow, just looked at the chart first time today... Not bad at all. Might be trading at $8 soon.
ReplyDeleteSDL.AX - Should start trading again, today's the last day of the halt.
ReplyDeleteBernanke took center stage this evening, but I have no idea what was said.
ReplyDelete