The 'sell in May' crowd likes to sleep in during the Spring and get up
early in the Fall, paring back on positions when everyone else 'Springs forward'
to DST. This strategy works most of the time, and continues to work despite the
fact that all traders try to take advantage of it. My inclination this Spring is to at least remain in cash
(or move towards a short posture). Why are stocks at these levels? The best
'nutshell' explanation I've come across was penned by former Chief Economist for
the Department of Labor Diana Furchtgott-Roth: 'The Fed is calculating that it can engineer a rise in
confidence by inflating asset prices, leading to stronger consumption
and investment.'
That's a pretty good take. I don't think
Americans are really buying into it.
NIHD- Was there a catalyst 4 days ago?
ReplyDeleteMaybe this?:
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-03/nii-gains-on-report-of-advanced-talks-to-sell-peru-unit-to-entel.html?cmpid=yhoo
So, so many people talking about "Sell in May" this year as it's worked very well the last 3 years.
ReplyDeleteI can't believe the market will reward so many people. Once a pattern becomes obvious, it changes as too many people start following.
We've had kind of a below the surface correction this last month with transports, IWM, the high fliers TOF talked about, etc. correcting moderately while the S&P 500 hanging in well. Maybe that's all we get and now we start to grind higher again. Earnings season has usually been good for stocks the last couple of years, so how the market reacts in the next couple of weeks will be telling.
Perhaps, except WS money likes their summer vacation and won't be leaving their wealth sitting like ducks in vulnerable stocks?
DeleteIf I were to peer into their puny minds, they'll ramp the market going into May, unload at the new high, and publish a 4 month flurry of disappointing earnings estimates.
DeleteThe word asshats comes to mind.
IEP - Quite a move yesterday.
ReplyDeleteNUAN - The gap up anchor is closed now.
INVN - Looks like insiders have dumped, not sure if finviz data is correct though.
ReplyDeleteWhat's your great rotation thesis? Bonds get sold? Hmmmm. Maybe not.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/04/the-new-great-rotation-commodities-into-bonds/
DTYS looks good here, as one of the comments had pondered.
DeleteInternal resistance of oil prices is quite low, as more oil than ever is being consumed and production has had no material increase.
DeleteNot uncommon for a bull market end in an parabolic ramp?
DeleteChina passenger vehicle sales up 17% yoy
ReplyDeleteIEP - Man, yesterday this thing gaped up $5 and huge volume persisted most all day. WTF?
ReplyDeleteANV, looks like shorts covering down like -80% since NOV
ReplyDeleteGold equity rally feels real today
Probably is. Everyone is watching JCP/HLF!
DeleteNot a dead cat bounce?
Delete2013 Blue Angel fly-over demonstrations canceled, fall victim to sequestration.
ReplyDeleteAnd the back seat of a T-38. These events are nice, but after two its the same thing.
DeleteThe millions it saves is a good thing not to mention when the whole crew that gets killed following the lead dog into the desert dround.
Yeah, it just became less of a challenge to obtain that unity takeoff to landings ratio.
Deletecoal stocks.
ReplyDeletestrong rotation into tangibles today
DeleteCAF, basically at 50% retrace
steels, too, I suppose the beat down is getting to be too much.
DeleteI still think NOK is a screaming buy. Risk reward setup is perfect. You're risking very little downside with a stop out below $3.15 to $3.2ish.
ReplyDeleteCP, do you buy NUAN on the pullback?
ReplyDeleteBack on my radar screen now that the gap up obligation is closed. Still debating going with IEP instead, and let the old man do the steering.
DeleteI have watched IEP for about six years, trades really strange and at times very thin. But it has been hot of late and the I-CAHN moves markets.
DeleteWhat the hell was 60 to 88 all about in 5 days to to fall back to earth. Check out a 5 year line chart, based on that its a little above the .50 retrace (56.5) trading at 62.79 just below the 50 dma.
GL
"What the hell was 60 to 88 all about" Good question, looks like it was a trap setup, huh?
DeleteBIDU - A close better than $84.15 would be helpful.
ReplyDeleteFinally a day when everyting is working.
ReplyDeleteEWZ
ANR
NOK
YRCW
GG
RJA
Pretty clear from this list I like buying pullbacks, maybe I should branch out.
What the perma bears failed to mention about CAT is that the longer term chart is still showing a series of higher lows. I think I mentioned this a week or so ago...the trade looked really good around $84 b/c the stop out wasn't much lower at $79 or so.
ReplyDeletePotential triple top most likely spooked traders, still we have to feed the world.
DeleteDaily extended, weekly a buy set-up, still a very decent trade op.
DeleteI've come to the conclusion the perma bears are pundits hired to write negative articles.
DeleteCP - there is certainly an element of that. not sure if it's pundits or big money trying o get stuff for cheaper.
DeleteI'm convinced big money has hired these authors to publish distorted articles.
DeleteGMO/SDL.AX - Perhaps all the disappointing Hanlong news is priced in?
ReplyDeleteGG ANR offed for now
ReplyDeleteCYD - Coming back to us.
ReplyDeleteBoth GDXJ and SLV made a higher high and a higher low since the April 3 bottom (if you count yesterday's pullback as a higher low). AUMN still has not made a higher high. Let's hope it won't lag behind for long. Just placed an order to buy 3000 shares at $2.25 and got 2200 shares filled.
ReplyDeleteIt should have a production update this week for Q1, and after the very disappointing production update last quarter, it is hard to imagine that they can say anything to make the long-term picture look even worse. However, they can easily say something to make the long-term picture look better.
fslr off to the races
ReplyDeleteplus 49%
DeleteThat was one of your positions, right? If so, congratulations!!!
Deletealmost bought this morning at +4% but did not
Deletejust noting action halted again for 2nd time
Geoff wrote this morning:
ReplyDelete"the most recent Hulbert data showed a recommendation of -31% net short position in gold among the newsletter writers it follows, which is the most negative in its history going back to 1997."
I think this pretty much makes impossible a large down move in gold right now, which in turn suggests that the 2-year support for GLD at 150 should hold. If it does, then there will be a strong case for a large upmove in GLD soon, since traders will feel that buying is safe because there is a "floor" nearby.
Interesting comment on the "sister site" this afternoon (EST):
ReplyDelete*******
Nobody likes the miners
Submitted by ballena (506 comments) on Tue, 04/09/2013 - 13:20 #119033
Not a single comment on the rebound? Good! It could be time to get onboard again. Awaiting potential break-outs.
*******
GG back on picked up .61%, good enough for gov't work.
ReplyDeleteAs for ANR, CLF may be a better buy, still shopping.
Nice technical divergences for BCOV.
ReplyDeleteHUSS now don't you cry MAN
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/u-stock-market-overvalued-overbought-overbullish-john-hussman-143431274.html
Still talking the talk. Even if he is right longer term, hard to see how he makes up for losing so much money.
DeleteHas he ever been bullish, GROWTH FUND seems to imply he's supposed to be investing in GROWTH?!?!?
DeleteThere's no GROWTH out there anywhere, really???? Why isn't he telling us about GROWTH? I don't believe him, he could at least rename the fund RETRACTION if he's truly serious.
NOK almost identical monthly chart pattern as Nat Gas. It's ready to explode. Earnings coming up. I think something positive is going to happen with Nokia Siemens Network. Target looks to be about $6 on next up move.
ReplyDeleteSilver - With at least $100 upside built in, it's the best bargain in the entire market!
ReplyDeleteRobot - Switches from short @ 1562 -> long @ 1568
ReplyDeleteGST: jeez louise!
ReplyDeleteOffed GG again a while ago
ReplyDeleteX bouhgt a little on close since it was -15% where I sold it last and it seems slightly interesting and this way I watch better.
YGE - OMG, BACML has an $7 target assigned to this one.
ReplyDeleteI understand people are really bearish on CTCT and the chart looks like shit but it's getting cheap as hell. They have 1/4 of market cap in cash (cash is worthless I know), generate about $17 to $25 million in free cash flow annually (vs $390 million market cap). But most importantly they have a huge customer base of repeat customers (i.e., recurring revenues). We use their services for their site. I think at some point someone steps in and buys the company for their customer base (555,000 customers). They are valued at $709 per customer. I'm not sure what the average customer pays but I know we pay $75/month or $900/year.
ReplyDeleteCash is a liability?
DeleteThat's what Kaimu sez.
DeleteRLGY - Ouchie......
ReplyDeleteHXM - Looks like upside down bear flag to me.
ReplyDeleteBK - Banks never roll over, they just keep on leveraging.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete