Silver and black performed well today! The Raiders aren’t playing, so it
must be steel and coal I’m referring to! X up +5%, BTU up +4%. It’s hard to
get excited when both are still down -40% from 52-wk highs, but it may be a sign
traders have begun to rotate into commodities. Even the miners are up +4% today
after giving back all of their recent gains the past week.
My 'nonchalance' re market action the past few days surprises even me. I just don't feel like I'm missing anything.
ReplyDeleteExcept a few bucks.
DeleteSNE has been electric with the yen at 52 wk lows.
YRCW has been truckin'
SAND was between my toes today.
CLDX was sick. (the good sick).
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/does-obama-want-to-push-granny-off-a-cliff-2013-04-09?link=MW_story_popular
ReplyDeleteAbe has no problem pushing both granny and grandpa off a cliff.
DeleteAbe is putting the squeeze on Europe's industrial machine, the stronger euro scoops some cream off the top of the value-added spread of German products and places it on Japanese goods.
DeleteGE cuts Pennsylvania locomotive production, 950 jobs, some will relocate in consolidation. Low demand for coal is one of the reasons sighted.
ReplyDeleteGeneral Electric Co. plans to cut 950 jobs at its unionized locomotive plant in Pennsylvania and shift one-sixth of the employment to a newer...
http://www.google.com/search?q=pennsylvania+locomotive+plant&hl=en&gbv=2&revid=341258776&gs_l=heirloom-serp.3..0l2j0i22i30l8.46944314.46949039.0.46950133.17.15.0.0.0.0.911.5668.2j0j7j0j1j3j2.15.0...0.0...1ac.1.Pj5R-zU9qOc&oq=pennsylvania+locomotive+plant
LEDS - Looks like bull flag formation.
ReplyDeleteTTM - Could be an entry here.
ReplyDeleteCTCT - Okay, this one might be a good lead to consider, especially if the selling persists. Who in their right mind would refuse such gifts?
ReplyDeleteI don't know, bro. Several million shares belonging to investors in their right minds have already been sold, whereas the investors who bought may be wondering wtf.
DeleteI've witnessed this phenomenon many times in the past several years. It appears people sell for no good reason other than simply b/c the price is falling and a few misleading articles, until the selling becomes exhausted.
DeleteThey sell because the price is falling? Say it isn't so!
DeleteCC - FWIW, I rarely understand your posts.
DeleteCool. I love it when I can keep someone in suspense.
DeleteYou have a real aversion to contributing something of value, too bad we don't have an iggy button.
DeleteI don't know what the problem is, (maybe you're in a bad mood?) but please explain how "I've witnessed this phenomenon many times in the past several years. It appears people sell for no good reason other than simply b/c the price is falling and a few misleading articles, until the selling becomes exhausted." is of value?
DeleteI don't know of any equity or security that this doesn't apply to. Hence my comment.
You are free to ignore it as you wish.
No need for persistent antagonism. Value - Right, my observations are valueless in comparison to yours, thanks for pointing that out (once again).
DeleteJCP - Oh, Ackman is a JCP guy, eh? Egg on Ackman's face is a feather in Ichan's cap, right?
ReplyDeleteXPP - Heading back up.
ReplyDeleteMEOH - 4/1/13 "Kinder Morgan Energy Partners (KMP) will invest approximately $58M to expand its chemical storage capacity. KMP has entered into a long-term contract with Methanex Corporation (MEOH) to support the construction of methanol storage capacity near Kinder Morgan’s Geismar Liquids Terminal in Geismar, La."
ReplyDeleteMiniature nuclear (LENR) power generators?
ReplyDeletehttp://pesn.com/2013/04/04/9602290_Defkalion-laying-low-preparing-to-make-a-big-splash/
Alright, not "nuclear":
Delete"With its proprietary breakthrough technology, Defkalion Green Technologies gives rise to a new era of energy production which is neither nuclear, nor chemical, nor "Cold Fusion" inextricably designated as having endless practical applications. Our process is called HENI (Heat Energy from Nuclei Interactions)."
http://defkalion-energy.com/technology/
wow interesting stuff. is this dangerous if in the hands of the wrong people?
DeleteThey claim it's not dangerous, fewer beta rays than an electric toaster. Some sort of public demonstration is scheduled in the next few months, wonder how it goes?
DeleteDunno.
Notice though, Dr. T at National Instruments is supposedly helping them out.
DeleteHere is a possible CTCT killer:
ReplyDeletehttp://sendy.co/
Only issue I see is it requires a bit of programming knowledge and the majority of small business owners don't have any.
STWD - Neutral -> Buy
ReplyDeleteFED inadvertently released minutes yesterday at 14:00?
ReplyDeleteBIDU - Something lit a fire under this one, it seems.
ReplyDeleteCTCT - No coverage by my broker of infinite wisdom.
ReplyDeleteOpening SLW/ GDX @ 29.0x/ 36.3x...
ReplyDeleteAdding @ 28.7x/ 36.0x...
DeleteGoldman's beating up on gold this morning.
DeleteYGE - Chasers getting burned, oh what a surprise!
ReplyDeletePKX - Closed the gap down. Let's rally now, please!
ReplyDeleteGMO - Someone has given up hope, I guess.
ReplyDeleteThat's what I'm hoping.
DeleteWe thrive on desolation here.
DeleteMoody Blues? ;)
DeleteAnyone looked at INTC or MSFT lately?
ReplyDeleteYeah I noticed they pushed the DJIA higher yesterday.
DeleteI did not realize they are both in the DOW.
DeleteINTC seems the more interesting of the two.
Extreme sentiment traders may want to watch HMA.
ReplyDeleteSlammed -16%) on a downgrade and earnings disappointment.
I'm in a small position for the rebound.
IS that Hawaiian Health Mgt?
DeleteHealth Management Associates.
DeleteIt's not all about Hawaii, dude.
DeleteHeaven on Earth even if it is over developed.
DeleteHow is SF today? still dark here.
12mo PO is $15
Delete"Health Management Associates: Quick takes from the call
4/10/2013 2:52 PM
Hospital sell off seems overdone."
What we have here is punishment of yesterday's buyers. Anyone who opened positions in miners yesterday either has the ----s to take the beating, or must leave the club.
ReplyDeleteThe beating is no joke.
DeleteWe know that the gov't (FED) manipulates markets.
DeleteRIGHT!
Bond mkt
Stock mkt
SO, why would they not manipulate Gold lower if and when it suits there needs?
We live in totally managed societies where gov'ts now distort and control free markets. As much as I think gold is the best protection against a currency re-set who knows when it will happen and the pain they can inflict upon us is unknown.
In any event the market is is just vibrating today. 1600 here we come.
12mo PO is $15
Delete"Health Management Associates: Quick takes from the call
4/10/2013 2:52 PM
Hospital sell off seems overdone."
Sellers cranking up the heat:
ReplyDeleteSprott's John Embry says Fed holding down the gold price
Submitted by Bill Cara (3990 comments) on Wed, 04/10/2013 - 10:21 #119071
Obviously the financial news has been a positive for precious metals but the price keeps getting hammered. Sprott's John Embrey discusses the situation on BNN TV.
http://www.bnn.ca/News/2013/4/8/Gold-price-manipul...
I know how these beatings unfold. It won't let up anytime today.
Delete"I know how these beatings unfold. It won't let up anytime this decade."
DeleteThere, I fixed it for ya.
GFA - Brazilian Residential Construction. There's a $9 12mo PO on this one.
ReplyDeleteMust close better than $4.49 today else ST weakness is the anticipation.
DeleteBAH - Another good day. Beats the holy heck outta PM's....
ReplyDeleteGG long and playing with fire
ReplyDeleteReally want to buy CLF but do not have the guts
ReplyDeleteand its always treated me like dung.
Delete$25 12mo PO, neutral
DeleteAA - Neutral, $9 12mo PO
DeleteCC for you, your little Mouseketeer.
ReplyDeletehttp://retro-cafe.com/60s/annette-hawaii.htm
Gold and Silver are still in solid downtrends. They also still have not come down nearly as much from their highs as pretty much all other commodities like oil, gas, copper, grains, etc., so probably need to catch up.
ReplyDeleteStill too much money in GLD which sells indescriminently based on fund flows. Not sure where it stops, but really hard to pick a bottom in something like this and I still think we are a few hundred dollars away.
Ted Nugent - Should this guy have access to guns? I think he looks crazy and potentially mentally ill.
ReplyDeleteDeranged, is the word.
DeleteGMAN - This one looks beat to heck, attractive like PM miners?
ReplyDeleteThat Defkalion thing sounds really promising CP. I hope they pull it off but I have my doubts. That would revolutionize everything and be a game changer.
ReplyDeleteIn regards to the market, remember how a lot of traders and trend followers were pissing on the market because the small caps and transports were "behaving badly"? I mentioned this last week but isn't the rule of thumb with breakouts to wait for a pullback to near the prior resistance to establish longs? If I look at the long term charts of IWM and IYT that is precisely what happened.
Meanwhile all of the momo names I follow that had really sharp pullbacks are rebounding very nicely. Of the ones I watch closely that I'm not in, FIG is looking really good, MTG and TA are two of the strongest ones I follow (I think TA goes significantly higher because it trades at very low price to sales ratio (not as low as YRCW but close)). of the others, NOK and BIDU both had fakeouts recently and rebounded really well. I think NOK rips much higher soon...probably on earnings if i had to guess but who the hell knows.
About the small caps / transports comment...what i ultimately think happened is a lot of traders allowed their own personal feelings (i.e., disbelief) get in the way of their own rules. Kind of like what BC is doing with the gold trade. It's hard to suspend your conviction or change it when the market trades counter to your conviction. That's why this game is hard. Absolutely no disrespect to any of those guys because it happens to all of us and none of us are perfect.
DeleteDefkalion - Serious doubts on that one, National Instruments' involvement provides the faint glimmer of light for me.
DeleteFIG - Yeah, tanks for the reminder, I might just jump into TA
GFA looks cheap to me as well, seems real estate development is the holy grail?
FIG - Oh boy, it does look good. I'm crying for not buying it last July.......
DeleteToday we break high temperature record going back to 1922
ReplyDeleteDamn, CP really ----ed things up for me.
ReplyDeleteGDX/ SLW closed @ 34.7x/ 28.6x...
The only chance here today is they are filling the gap on Jun contract.
DeleteTrying to trade gold equities here is like pissing in the wind, maybe should just go with the SP and sail with favorable winds in the deep blue sea of the Pacific.
Sigh, I plead the Sergeant Schultz defense....
Delete----, man. It's not just 'blood in' to the mining club. They ----ing try to kill you. If you're still alive at the end, they let you in.
DeleteNOK getting ready to go parabolic...maybe one last minor pullback?
ReplyDelete1.1 million shares on the ask...yep looks like they're gonna try to push it down one last time before liftoff.
DeleteNo problem with that barrier. How about a couple of days of 2 to 4% moves to build up the pressure then BAM!, new highs on earnings day.
DeleteBIDU going ape shit.
ReplyDeleteYep! ;) Glad I didn't give up in a moment of weakness.
Deleteblew thru the 20 sma and stpped dead at 50ema
DeleteTVIX is now bidding at 3?
ReplyDeleteSpot gold 1558.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
Sista's going down. I can sense it.
ReplyDeleteThe only reason I'm able to sense it is b/c I entered the fray this morning.
DeletePerhaps I should be looking forward to tonight's impending deluge of frantically written bearish articles.....
ReplyDeleteMWV ought to jump pretty soon, they manufacture anti-hyperventilation devices(paper bags?), right?
Here's my thinking:
ReplyDeleteScenario A
(a) RYPMX at the close.
(b) Tomorrow both gold and miners get taken down hard.
(c) I'm left wondering why tf I knowingly stepped into a sh-- hole.
Scenario B
(a) I remain in cash at the close.
(b) Tomorrow both gold and miners rocket up.
(c) I'm left wondering why tf I chickened out.
What about Scenario C? Forget about mining and miners and move on to greener pastures? Pun intended.
DeleteI enjoy dancing on graves.
DeleteGold is in a downtrend here. You can get an oversold bounce, but the only thing that stops downtrends is when valuations get low enough that the value type buyers get interested. I don't know of 1 value guy who is taking a serious look at told and most are staying far away. The only guys saying to buy are the gold bugs like Cara and Schiff.
DeleteOkay, here's my uber high value input for the day.
DeleteThe line in the sand is IWM 92.62.
The Rusty is now in the middle of the prior range, which is wonderful. However, it also, for you pattern people, looks like a pioneer first thrust (read Big Daves's daily missive).
If it keeps going and goes to new highs, we can all celebrate and start kissing each other(metaphorically of course) and if it is rejected and drops below 92.62 we can all short the rusty or if not, kiss our asses goodbye.
If it tanks I suspect there will be a fleeing to safety in the pm's, if not then the flight to safety will be stock and the TBT.
That's my story and I'm sticking to it unless I change my mind or something else happens.
You're right. When those guys capitulate, it will be time to buy.
DeleteEither capitulate of just fade into oblivion....
DeleteAnother -5-10% and it's over, b/c the likelihood of a sustained bounce will be close to zero for at least 6-12 months. In fact, the probability of another -50% from here will then be greater. Remember the parabolic move to 1900? It works in reverse as well.
DeleteI still have my 1st Pioneer, had to replace a zener diode in the power supply once but it rocks! And it's not one of the monster models using three huge filter capacitors that cost over $200 each!
DeleteGGN - ex-div 4/12
ReplyDeleteWow - MSFT up 5% in the last 2 days. Nasdaq outperforming a lot today. Perhaps we are starting to see the move out of safety into more cyclical stocks which would indiate that people believe things are getting better.
ReplyDeleteISEE Call/put ratio (small speculators) has dropped down into the very bullish category - similar to the market bottoms of 2010, 2011, and 2012.
ReplyDeletehttp://blog.haysadvisory.com/
Maybe the correction is over and we are off for another bull run?
I know I've been saying this for a little while so I apologize if it's repetitive, but three very powerful things are at work here that honestly can't be measured:
Delete(1) continued skepticism / lack of bullishness...umm hello everyone not on this blog, we're at ALL TIME HIGHS. the apathy / skepticism is mind boggling.
(2) housing recovery - this is fueling a rebound in credit markets which is huge for this economy.
(3) europe and japan are no longer head winds...maybe not tail winds yet but still that's a big boost to the world markets.
i don't know when the run stops and we get a pullback. despite expecting a pullback in january i was thinking 1,700. i still think that's a reasonable stopping point. i think the late 70's / early 80's parallel still holds to a certain extent. maybe we get one last 20% or so pullback after hitting 1,700? who knows. but i think the S&P follows the pattern that the transports just went through.
Agree 100%
DeleteWhat stops bull markets?
1. High interest rates and inflation - nowhere in sight
2. Financial Crisis - just finished one of those and people are still working to correct it. Not going to see another one until it is off the radar
3. Bursting of a bubble - There are no asset bubbles out there. You could make the case for a bubble in treasuries, but that is really just a bubble in fear, so as that deflates and rates normalize, it should move money into stock markets.
I think we do get inflation at some point as the government debt needs to become devalued after rates normalize and the percentage of GDP going to debt payments increases, but that is still a few years away.
As long as the small caps did what they did today I'm good with it. Forge ahead!
DeleteI'm just cautious of the pioneer gate keeper. Get me to new highs and don't stop for a little while, then give me an orderly pullback.
Stay the heck away from IWM 92.62!
1700, I recall the conversation and have no issues with hearing it here more than once. Hearing it keeps me focused.
DeleteI almost got run over by a YRCW truck today. No joke!
ReplyDeletelet's hope that isn't an omen.
DeleteWhat does a YRCW truck look like?
Deletebig and yellow of course!
Deletehttp://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.ccjdigital.com/files/2010/08/YRC-Truck-1.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.ccjdigital.com/yrc-posts-operating-profit-smaller-net-loss/&h=933&w=1400&sz=715&tbnid=6juo0scOafLtFM:&tbnh=90&tbnw=135&zoom=1&usg=__C_pjlp9mG2eAdDU4SLJ5Gu-H-NE=&docid=7mYnXHvNgWcykM&sa=X&ei=YcFlUbXDOIXmiwLU_YHADg&ved=0CGQQ9QEwCQ&dur=17
It's 40 feet long and has YELLOW in black print on a yellow (almost orange) rectangle.
DeleteLuckily for Mark they must be driving DODGE's.
TOF has the latest version....
Deletehttp://www.freightcenter.com/landing/yellow_freight/landing/v2.aspx?gclid=CI3xk5bvwLYCFeN_QgodZmkAyQ
They need to stop hiring migrants off the corner to drive. It saves money in the short term, but one accident could take the company down.
Delete2nd - they're union my friend. it's part of the reason they are trading at 0.015 times sales.
DeleteWe didn't know you were short.
DeleteSo 2nd, Scenario A or B?
ReplyDeleteNIHD only up 80% in a week. WTF.
ReplyDeletei now have a brand new house alarm, let's see how many times i set it off.
ReplyDeletei had 3 GDL jan calls that I just knew would pay off, i just sold them for a $1900 loss. I have not paid much attn over the last 2 weeks AND, I need to just stick with the 401k's for long term investments. Leave all my trading accounts for short term setups with stops.
i bot 3 jan 160 spy calls for 6.43, I'll put a $750 loss cap on those.
screw the correction, now maybe it will happen. i'm going back to just watching for specific stock entries and exits. I do see that the spy is right at the top of a downtrending channel when i look at the tops on 2/14, 3/15, then today, interesting spacing on that.
what is GDL, how about GLD
DeletePerhaps if you had a chip implanted, the system could be configured to sense your presence within a couple feet of the door?
Deletemaybe a retina scan like they had in minority report
Deleteholy shit there are like 10 of my watch list stocks reporting earnings on 5/2.
ReplyDeleteNow there's a coincidence.....
DeleteTNK - This company is adding to it's man-o'-war fleet.
ReplyDelete