Wednesday, April 10, 2013
04/11/13 Duck and Run
Re this morning's ill-fated trade in miners:
(a) I was up within minutes of opening the trades, and could have closed for a decent profit. When trading counter-trend, take gains when you have 'em.
(b) Closing the positions? I waited far too long. It was, however, a calculated gamble. I was betting the +4% spike the day before would supply a floor. I was wrong.
(c) Handling the loss. When hit for a loss, take the loss. And move on. Anything beyond that is a waste of time. (-0.5% today, ouch!)
Re miners:
(a) The levee's busted. badness comin' through. Run like a coward, but it ain't no use.
(b) The sector will put in a bottom when it puts one in. Certainly not on any pundit's timetable.
Re Hussman, Paulson and the land of Oz:
(a) Man up! You run OPM, you 'own' all losses. Market manipulation did not cause the drawdown, for crying out loud.
(b) It's getting late. It's about to get ugly, it's about to get mean.
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The market goes up, miners go down. The problem (IMO) is that when the market sells off, miners will sell off further. In other words, there is no place to hide.
ReplyDeleteNo 'large buyer' is going to stick his neck out and buy here. Not with CS and Goldman calling for lower prices.
DeleteI can't recall if it was Port or T3D but,
DeleteI think its time to quickly move to silver
Quick to Silver if you know what I mean :)
I smell a MONSTER on the 5 yr chart.
Still scary to short though, even thought Goldman saying it is one of their best ideas.
DeleteCopper chart doesn't look bad though - sign of a better economy coming and fear going out of the market.
jesse- What do you see on the 5-yr chart for silver?
DeleteKwick to Silver...
DeleteAll I now is if you are right, you will make way more money here than in gold.
DeleteEvery time silver has been at this level it has bounced since Oct/Nov 2010.
DeleteIt's a low risk trade with a well defined stop below support. Give it room.
http://goldstocksforex.com/2013/04/10/time-to-short-gold/
DeleteSo I read this and I ask myself....
"Self, if China is slowing leading to a drop in commodities, what will China do?
And self says, Craig, China will ease like Japan. They have to to prevent a 3 billion person riot.
So self, if China eases like Japan, what will the U.S. do?
Craig, in order for U.S. exports to remain competitive,(and employment growing), the U.S. dollar will have to weaken.
Phew! Thanks self, I was worried there for a minute.
Brandt is sharing his observations on the copper chart, and COT
ReplyDeletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/
GMO- Fess up boys. Which one of you couldn't take it and had to jump in AH's??? Hummmmm....
ReplyDeleteBB, you in Toront?, if so if you attend Sinclair's meeting, take notes and report here on the blog, I'll pay you by check. The details:
ReplyDeleteDue to popular demand, we will be holding a second private Q&A meeting in Toronto. The first meeting sold out very quickly and this will be the last session you can attend in Toronto. The Q&A session is not for profit and the price is purely to cover costs associated with putting on such an event.
The details are as follows:
Where:
Toronto Marriott Downtown Eaton Centre
525 Bay Street
Toronto, Ontario, Canada, M5G 2L2
www.marriotteatoncenter.com
When:
Friday April 12th, 2013
Starting time is 1pm. Meeting should last until 5pm
Other Important Details:
This meeting is not being recorded and there will be no webcast. It is a private meeting and no recording devices will be allowed inside the meeting room. Unfortunately we will not be able to switch dates for you if you have already purchased a ticket
Please make sure you bring a copy of your PayPal receipt. If you do not have a copy of your receipt YOU WILL NOT BE ALLOWED IN!
Cost:
A fee of $50.00US to cover costs must be paid in advance. We will not accept payment at the door. You can make a payment with any major credit card via the PayPal button on the webpage linked below (no PayPal account required).
Let me know if you are game. TIA
DeleteI'll pitch in 50 also.
DeleteClosest I can come to with a silver chart
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/scripts/hist_charts/yearly_graphs.plx
2000 to present
GS recommended to short SLV and GLD today? Is this b/c there's a lack of physical?
DeleteI thought this board likes to go opposite GS. It probably means the drop is almost over and they been buying. But today did not follow thru from yesterday.
DeleteSWC is my best idea, just in case miners don't participate?
DeleteHere is the 5yr scroll down.
ReplyDelete.50 is 28.79 we closed 27.60ish
http://www.kitco.com/charts/techcharts_silver.html
I think we need a little assistance (Gran Patron) this evening switching from left to right (brain)..
ReplyDelete:)
KWK
I feel much more comfortable with this version of silver (in my right mind).
DeleteMunchkin vampires are about to take one in the chest.
DeleteHa, that's NG and I sold that on the 28th tried to buy back but got cute for a few pennies and off it went.
DeleteI made about 35% on that sucker when the CEO tried to take it private. Man, that was like from $7 to $11 bucks.
DeleteJust looked at the chart, that was like 10-14. What a disaster.
DeleteShort interest is down considerably, to 17%
DeleteI guess he went on a spending spree, not sure what happened?
DeleteNo, he never had the financing. That was one of my best wake ups ever. Made maybe $20K, something like that.
DeleteGMO looks like its worth a LONG shot.
ReplyDeleteYou know the full story there, right?
DeleteCrappy dust bowl mine, no funding, pissed of neighbors...what's not to like!
DeleteCatch you cat's on the wire.
Actually me and GMO have had a horrible relationship. We got divorced last year or the year before and have not spoken since.
DeleteThe mine is good, a mountain of moly.
DeleteI think I'll sell half my USAT position tomorrow to lock in some gains. It's a puny position that's going to get punier.
ReplyDeleteWell, maybe not. If USAT goes to $10,000/share I can retire. The wife will still have to work but I'm sure she'd be bored at home all day with me.
DeleteYes, I was pretty sure it was T3.
ReplyDeleteGonna form a cup and handle at 15 before WS "hot money" buys the C+H breakout (and gets stopped out for a loss).
Go in heavy in the Spring.
Summer/Fall/Winter..... Enjoy the Patron:)
Or If you'd like...
ReplyDeleteI could spend days researching and sending out special reports about an $80 Billion "Blue Chip" multi-bagger". (SNE)
Which of course we all loved and agreed with...seriously.
How many of us held?
" for more than 3 days?
How many of us will hold the next "Blue Chip Multi-bagger??"
" for more than 3 days?
British (B) Thermal (T) Units (U)
SNE? I don't recall that one. Only missed out on about $500k on that one. effin a.
DeleteI like BTU. I also like another microcap that used to be a blue chipper. you guys might have heard of it. it has something to do with transportation.
KWK - nice looking chart there.
NOK - best blue chipper chart I can find from a risk - reward and fundamental perspective in the medium risk camp.
I wish YRCW would put all of their job postings in one place instead of having to look at each company.
ReplyDeleteIt looks like they have a lot of job openings which can be a good thing. I heard a few months ago that its getting difficult to find good drivers.
it's official. i'm numb to the daily moves which are now averaging 7%. that happens when you go from down 15% to up 50% to up 3% to up 20% in the span of 2 months.
Deletei'm not numb to the long term potential though.
Unfortunately, 99% of us need "reason".
ReplyDelete"Reason" shows up at the end.
The ability to visualize (YRCW) is essential.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60og9gwKh1o
That's what happens you spend too much time looking at charts.
DeleteA buddy of mine put all of his money into FSLR at $13 and still owns it. true story.
ReplyDeleteBefore or after it was over 200?
DeleteAfter and he could be given the benefit of the doubt with a 3 bagger.
Before it went to 200 he is an idiot.
An idiot with a nearly 300% return, but if he made the round trip what can anyone say?
Correction: $300!!! Tell me he bought it recently. Please?
DeleteA buddy of his put his net worth into FSLR calls at $10.
ReplyDeleteSold a few weeks later at $19.
Nonpublic but lots of fun.
Sorry, 13-19. Its been awhile.
ReplyDeleteNext up... Small-cap NG.. Much bigger.
T3, I am not that far from Toronto, but sorry, no way I can go and sit and listen for 5 hours to Sinclair do his shtick. I have a friend going, so I'll see if I can get some info from him (he is going on vacation this weekend), but he is a hard core gold bug and will not be objective. I read Sinclair's blog for a while and he seems just like those conspiracy theory guys picking and choosing facts to support their view and ignoring ones that don't. Don't see how you can make money listening to someone like that.
ReplyDeletePlus, the Master is on at that time - priorities!
DeleteAAII sentiment report this morning - a couple of comments:
ReplyDeleteAAII reported this morning 81% are out of the market......now nearly 3 times as many bears as bulls.........19% bulls and 54% bears........i cant remeber seeing those kind of numbers before.......oh yes....now i remember......3/09.............at 666
I don't believe I have ever seen this: the market at new highs and AAII sentiment at new lows.
Individual Investors Are An Emotional Wreck And It Is Astonishingly Bullish - In response to this shallow correction, however, the sentiment survey shows a huge spike in bearish sentiment of +26.3% from 28.2% to 54.5% while bullish sentiment decreased 16.2% to 19.3%. While I have been writing and speaking extensively about the high sentiment reactivity for a while now and how it bouys equity prices, I am still surprised by the extremity of it evident in these numbers. In an environment where sentiment shifts so much on such modest declines, the shift acts like a put or hedge against lower prices. Individual investors are an emotional wreck and it is astonishingly bullish.
Unbelievable, maybe the data are incorrect.
DeleteAGO has formed a nice little channel.
DeleteGMO - I see Mark's bid there, on the ask.
ReplyDeleteNot me chickapea.
DeleteI like that one, could modify it slightly to chicknpea...,, LOL!
Delete$KOSPI - Recovered the 150SMA, all must be well in Asia.
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Mojo rising.....
ReplyDeleteHL got an upgrade today.
DeleteI Hijinxed AUMN, sorry David.
DeleteNUAN vs IEP - I'm coming to the conclusion I prefer NUAN.
ReplyDeleteLPI vs KWK - I kinda like LPI better, debt doesn't seem to be as much of an issue.
ReplyDelete$Copper - I dunno 'bout copper, seems like this chart needs to perk up a bit first:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.crbtrader.com/data.asp?page=chart&sym=BVY00&name=BLS%20Raw%20Industrials&domain=crb&display_ice=1&cancelstudy=&type=LINE&studies=SMA%2813%29;&a=W
Japan - I'm wondering if corporate Japan intends on surrendering, or if a battle is brewing?
ReplyDelete"The corporate culture in Japan has always been anti-shareholder as the predominant thought is that management owns corporations and the shareholders should be quiet and not make waves. The status quo has been challenged by some foreign activist investors and always rebuffed in a very anti-democratic show of defiance."
PKX - Sometimes these gaps up don't fill for months, but I've got a feeling yesterday's gap up won't be long-lived.
ReplyDeleteI'm planning on a little show for this one today.
Delete$SPX - This thing will be at 1700 soon and none of the tickers on my watch list will move up even a millimeter.
ReplyDeleteLPI/BAS - Wonder if LPI has contracted their work to BAS?
ReplyDeleteMark - Whaas up in the Permian? That place absolutely reeks of hydrocarbons....
ReplyDeletewent on margin this morning which i hate to do. B. T. U.
ReplyDeleteFSYS - Didn't even bother closing the gap up, crap!
ReplyDelete"Clear CutApril 10, 2013 at 11:10 PM
ReplyDeleteBefore or after it was over 200?
After and he could be given the benefit of the doubt with a 3 bagger.
Before it went to 200 he is an idiot.
An idiot with a nearly 300% return, but if he made the round trip what can anyone say?
Clear CutApril 10, 2013 at 11:11 PM
Correction: $300!!! Tell me he bought it recently. Please?"
CC - FSLR was never at $13 prior to this past year so he never had the pleasure of watching it go to $300 and back down.
My bad, I didn't go back to the IPO to see it started in the mid 20's.
DeleteSo your buddy is a 300% genius. If it goes back to 200-300 he will practically be a God.
I'm rooting for him!
well technically a 3 bagger is 200%. i told him to sell half and he was like: dude, i almost sold half when you recommended to do so at $25. Touche.
DeleteI love when the little guy wins.
DeleteThe best part is he's having his first child and now has enough to buy a house for the family. He actually just informed me that he sold half to help cover the down payment and some extra. Pretty cool.
DeleteTip of the hat!
DeleteEven better! ;)
DeleteHXM - Back to $8.80, is this some sort of retest of support or the beginning of another leg down?
ReplyDeleteI vote leg down, the show can't be over so quickly?
Sure looks to me like a cup and handle on ZNGA
ReplyDeleteor i should say just half a cup now but in the process of forming one.
DeleteI like the name, it's got a certain zip to it.
DeleteOkay, I need some cheering for HMA to get back to the mean, maybe close part of the gap or....dare I say it w/o jinxing it?
ReplyDeleteBought more this AM.
now that is one nice looking knockout blow. What's the catalyst here?
DeleteJust trading the reversion. Down 20% in a day is almost always overdone.
DeleteCP had some info yesterday saying the same thing.
They had some lower than estimated earnings and a downgrade. Don't they all?
I think medical management is going to be huge with O care.
My daughter's employer is using a similar firm to cut costs and reorganize.
"Don't they all?"
DeleteSure do, depending on what the sell side wants us to believe?
DD - There's a blue chip for ya, eh?
ReplyDelete12mo PO is $55, seems like a reasonable expectation to me.
DeleteI read some analyst predicting 50% increase in earnings over the next 3 years, so some probable good upside.
DeleteI own it as a play on Agriculture and their new CEO is pushing this and getting rid of the commodity chemicals. Hope it works out.
Nat Gas refuses to retrace. This is wildly bullish for coal stocks. I took a look around to see if there are bullish articles on coal stocks and other than a few smaller shops recommending them, it's pretty hard to find mainstream media or analysts that are recommending them.
ReplyDeleteI sent mark an email with charts...check out the ratios of the coal stocks and the coal index to the price of nat gas. At all time lows with large bottoming tails in most of them. They're all 50% or more below longer term moving averages. My math is weak but I believe its 100% to get back to moving averages.
DeleteNow what if nat gas goes to $6? $8? $12?
Every article on coal that I have seen/read in the last two weeks was negative (very) in most cases.
ReplyDeleteBB, no problem it was a long shot, like me hitting a hole in one in putt putt when I was eleven.
Who do you think takes home the green jacket?
Some headlines:
DeleteThe long, slow death of the UK coal industry
Alderman wants Chicago to ban pavement sealants made with coal tar
Will Obama Put Coal out of Business?
Pacific export terminals: The raging war on coal
classic.
DeleteAnyone recall what the articles were saying about Apple and Nat Gas about a year ago?
DeleteBan coal tar, eh? A number of cities already have, that's great for the alternative sealer producers.
DeleteWho owns the alternative sealer production facilities?
DeleteWhat's the alternative? Gravel pack with oil.
DeleteAsphalt, also known as bitumen, is a sticky, black and highly viscous liquid or semi-solid form of petroleum. It may be found in natural deposits or may be a refined product.
DeleteFunny how it always leads back to the same place.
"Coal tar is incorporated into some parking-lot sealcoat products, used to protect and beautify the underlying pavement. Sealcoat products that are coal-tar based typically contain 20 to 35 percent coal-tar pitch. Substantial concerns have been raised about the safety of this application of coal tar, given that coal tar is known to cause cancer in humans and that several PAH compounds in coal tar are toxic to aquatic life. Defenders of coal-tar use in sealcoat have pointed out that humans are exposed to PAHs through many pathways, and similarly that the urban environment has many potential sources of PAHs.
DeleteThe primary use of coal tar based sealcoats is regional within the US but federal research [5] shows it is used in states from Alaska to Florida and several areas have banned its use in sealcoat products including: The District of Columbia; the City of Austin, Texas; Dane County, Wisconsin; Washington State; and several municipalities in Minnesota."
So it looks like this is priced in....
I think this is the non-coal sealer product Cal-Trans uses, or maybe they've changed to something newer, but this was used at one time:
Deletehttp://www.surfacemax.com/
SFD - Looks like bull flag. So much for high feed costs impacting the bottom line, March earnings kinda disproved that BS lie, eh?
ReplyDeletePKX - Seems like yesterday may have been a bull trap, we'll find out soon enuff.... like in AH.
ReplyDeleteKWK - Making a move?
ReplyDeleteHXM - Today's news doesn't have any disappointing aspects that I'm able to identify.
ReplyDelete"MEXICO CITY--Mexican home builder Desarrolladora Homex SAB (HXM, HOMEX.MX) said Thursday it has tapped a bridge loan under the government's new construction loan-guarantee program, making it the first builder to do so."
DeleteJBHT - This one reports today, we get to confirm trucking industry growth.
ReplyDeleteFED minutes - Nice of the FED to have distributed the minutes to banks 24hrs ahead of the rest of us.
ReplyDeleteBanks, lobbyists and selected brokers. Aholes. Then to say it was "accidental" and not release them to the public as soon afterward?
DeleteCould they get any more corrupt?
If we did anything like this we would be behind bars as some violent felon's butt toy.
DeleteThe more convoluted the system gets, the more the little guy becomes the butt toy.
Delete2nd_ave, you like reading about sentiment. Here is an article I found:
ReplyDeletehttp://theshortsideoflong.blogspot.com/2013/04/hulbert-gold-sentiment-at-record-lows.html
I think it is noteworthy that despite weeks of horrible sentiment, gold and silver have not yet broken their 2-year support levels. How much more disillusioned should traders get in order for these firm supports to break? Is it possible to get even more disillusioned at this point?
Qatar Airways hopes to fly Dreamliners again some day.
ReplyDeleteWalter Energy, Inc. (WLT) (WLT.TO) today said that performance for the first quarter 2013 has improved compared with fourth quarter 2012, driven largely by increased metallurgical coal sales volume and pricing, increased production and lower costs.
ReplyDelete“Improvements across our operations over the past several months reflect the success of our ongoing initiatives,” said Walt Scheller, Chief Executive Officer. “Along with the progress we continue to make in our operations, we are also pleased with the recent actions taken to increase our financial flexibility. As to the current market, we have seen stronger demand and improved pricing, with second quarter benchmark prices of $172 per metric ton for hard coking coal and $141 per metric ton for low vol PCI. We believe all these factors position us well as we look ahead to the remainder of 2013.”
Looks like the entire coal sector is gapping tomorrow, leaving traders behind. Not surprised one bit. The catalyst has been in place for a while now: higher nat gas prices.
DeleteGood. maybe steel producer estimates will begin to improve. Low volatile PCI is thermal coal for power generation, I guess.
Delete$31 PO is currently assigned to WLT
DeleteANR seems to be attracting more attention than BTU in AH. And someone even bought a few shares of X!
ReplyDeleteCan't recall the last time a coal CEO said something positive, how'd that work out?
Now all we need to do is wait for the econ report the FED already sent to the banks!
ReplyDeleteHXM - Sure seems to me like the Mexican government helped to clear a financial log jam today.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteCLNT - Taking 1/2 off here.
ReplyDelete