Gold down -150 (-10%) to 1350.
Silver off -11%. GDX/ GDXJ -9.3%/ -12.3%. It certainly feels like capitulation
following an already bleak year for the metals. So it’s Black Monday for the
mining sector. Is it time to buy? Well, it seems too ‘easy’ to buy here. I
don’t think the market’s finished. Today was a warm-up. The beating comes later.
http://youtu.be/p2BqclqkdYM
Peter Brandt - Gotta love that guy.
ReplyDeleteNo Crap! He wrote this yesterday.
Delete"The massive decline on Friday completed a massive top on the daily, weekly and monthly Gold graphs. The charts can be defined by a single word — UGLY! Should Gold rally, short sales in the 1520 to 1540 zone would be highly appropriate. There are various downside targets in Gold depending upon whether one uses a closing price chart, a candle chart or a bar chart. The lowest target I have is around 1131. Do I think Gold can go that low? Not really. But a decline to the low 1300s is very possible. In fact, two days like last Friday and we will be there."
We see at least 1250 before it's over. And it may be over within the next two days.
ReplyDeleteRe: End of the world for miners again
ReplyDeleteSubmitted by xyz (6 comments) on Mon, 04/15/2013 - 16:32 #119369 (in reply to #119344)
At this point, I can not conceive of how much my mining stocks would have to go up to make the last seven years worth it.
Seven years of focusing too much on gold, silver, and mining stocks to the detriment of my awareness of other market opportunities.
I did this because I thought the panic of 2008 would devastate wealth, now with the S&P back up and me down, my awareness of the social inequity of the markets and the fear and anger that it has caused has manifested in that very wealth devastation for myself.
Adios.
Follow through is key. We may see more selling tomorrow in pm's and the indices. We may see an OGRe type set up, sell hard at the open and then a rebound. Then more selling or more upside, your choice.
DeleteThe above post is a good sign of an approaching bottom though. The big boys do know how to fleece the sheeple. It's not a Kill Bill conspiracy, it's trading.
Gold 1330. Silver 22.21.
ReplyDeleteI've got one short on (TSO) and it's doing just fine.
ReplyDeleteI'm looking to short some more but I'd like to see a rebound to short into or hopefully my short triggers.
Triple top? Who knows, it's one day at a time.
You might make it all the way to the 200SMA on that one.
DeleteGASS is looking like a bull flag to me still, holler when/if you jump back in.
Yeah, it was until today's bar. That kind of knocked the bull outta the flag, but a couple of good days could change that.
DeleteIf it does break down it would go to $10 and maybe $9, so not worth shorting, which might be a positive.
A bull flag moves in favor of bears until it doesn't, which is common, the breakdown they're thinking is working suddenly goes against them.
DeleteI don't know any self respecting bear that would short a stock for a buck or two.
DeleteIf you want to short something you want it to roll over off of all time highs with as little support as possible for as long as possible or have the trigger be the breaking of the final support so it slides quickly.
GASS would only go to $10 before finding support, then there would be more give and take, and then it would have more support at nine. It would have to go to zero to make it worthwhile.
There are much better trades.
That said, Landry picked the top in gold months ago when it rolled over. I wish I had taken his hint, it would have been a hell of a ride. My kind of short. Anyone could have called the support at 1500. Breaking that support was another entry until it hits the next support.
Collectively, Europe owns a heck of a lot of gold. Are we observing the new European template introduced as the Cypriot bailout?
ReplyDeletePACB- That's one crazy chart. I heard today's gold move was the largest in 30 years. I must be getting jaded. Seemed 'normal' to me in a sense.
ReplyDeleteThe real normal aspects were the SUNDAY MORNING 04:30 BEAR RAID during a period of THIN trading.
DeleteGood thing I'm asleep then!
DeleteWhy is gold falling?
ReplyDelete"Japan's Nikkei 225 index is in a strong primary up-trend as the BOJ commences asset purchases on a massive scale. This is a tectonic shift in the market. Larry Edelson (as quoted by Barry Ritholz) has the most convincing explanation of the sharp fall in gold:"
"The wicked and aggressive devaluation of the Japanese yen is setting off a massive stampede OUT of gold and into cash and other assets.......Why are the Japanese dumping gold, especially when their currency is being devalued? It’s simple. The fall in the Japanese yen caused the price of gold in yen to spike sharply higher. So Japanese investors are cashing in their profits."
http://goldstocksforex.com/2013/04/16/asia-japan-rises-as-gold-falls/
Everyone looks for an answer when it's crashing but never when its rising 8-fold for 12 years
DeleteHere's one answer: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/golds-fair-value-is-800-an-ounce-2013-04-16
DeleteI'm on the road again today. Best of luck with your trades.
DeleteAdd shorts around $1525, maybe David should do this and trade the volatility.
DeleteI haven't been able to understand how to trade gold, myself.
I should use my own comments as a contrarian indicator. Could have flipped either SLV or GDX for a quick +3% overnight. Of course, it would have been a sleepless night watching spot gold and silver tank an additional -2% and -4% on the Hong Kong exchange.
ReplyDeleteThere's no easy money.
DeleteMET and AGO might be near a good entry.
DeleteMET's channel seems pretty straight forward.
DeleteGPL is up 11%, was trading under $1 most all day yesterday.
DeleteLPI is rising, NUAN is rising, as many stocks are. PKX is bumping $72
DeleteGGB - This one might be a good entry here somewhere, worth keeping an eye on I guess.
DeleteYRCW gave an arguably decent entry yesterday, TOF likes this one as a multi-bagger. I think he'll be proven correct.
Uranium miners like BTU might be ready to run?
VALE - BACML PO is $23, that would be quite a gain.......
Delete"Vale SA.: New mining code might not include a special part. tax
4/14/2013 4:47 AM
Brazilian Mining Minister Edison Lobao was quoted today saying the govt might not create a Special Participation Tax (SPT) on the mining sector."
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pension-law-proposal-would-hit-some-retirees-2013-04-15
ReplyDeletehere's a little more info on the potential pension reform coming up in 2014. this would have very important (and positive) implications on YRCW
Can't believe I missed so many good entries on that one, especially $5.80
DeleteI'm still looking for my entry. Similar to AGO, finding entries.
Trying BTU for a trade again.
ReplyDeleteclosed for a small loss. going to wait for a break above key weekly moving averages and prove to me it's strong.
DeleteI don't blame you there.
DeleteSee you at the close boyz.
BRLI - This one has an 12mo PO of $32
ReplyDeleteDoes BRK/B strike you as a weak pattern? It's pretty indicative of the US economy.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't worry me. But of course I'm not the brightest bulb on the block. My guess is it's probably unreasonable to expect the channel to maintain the same trajectory forever.
DeleteWe coulda' had it at $85, huh? Coulda-shoulda.
$WTIC - $77 ? Well, maybe we get a chance to load this one around $77 ? Honestly, I can't imagine that price has a snowball's chance but hey......
ReplyDeleteIKEA - Just switched on their solar roof-top in a Maryland store.
ReplyDeleteWNR - Sorta looks like the H&S pattern is complete, what say you guys?
ReplyDeleteFinally, Obama uses the T-word
ReplyDeleteNice turnaround for BTU right near double bottom lows for the year. That's why I'm trying this from the long side: risk-reward...
ReplyDeleteIt's worth a shot, I'd say.
DeletePSX - $72 PO, Neutral
ReplyDeleteALJ - This refinery is right there sitting in the middle of the West Tx. oil field.
ALDW vs ALJ - Not sure which is the best approach. ALDW offers a sweet dividend.
FMD and DRL still look very good.
ReplyDeleteCAKE and RUTH are both consolidating near 52 week highs. I like both restaurants and their stocks.
ReplyDeleteCAKE - PO is $40, 15% est growth
DeleteRUTH - My broker doesn't cover this one.
Every single CAKE restaurant I've been to is packed. I still can't believe it went to $5 in the recession. Even when the recession hit those restaurants were packed.
DeleteYeah, there's still plenty of beat down companies. Some took on debt in order to expand and I think LT they could really do well as long as their debt doesn't eat their earnings.
DeleteSPX 1581 would be nice to see.
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Looks like a good place here to try one's luck as well.
ReplyDeleteTITN - I guess something about earnings made an impression. Probably a good IR play?
ReplyDeleteINTC/YHOO report in AH
ReplyDeleteVALE/P (Chart Talk, 20 March 2013)
ReplyDeleteremains in a bearish pattern, with
downside risk to $15.50 initially and then
into the $13.00-12.75 area. Rallies that
stall below $17.50-17.60 keep the
pattern firmly bearish. Additional chart
and downtrend resistance is $19-20.
TCK is a base metals company that
ReplyDeletecontinues to decline and shows deeper
downside risk into the $22-19 area (Chart
Talk, 20 March 2013). If the pattern is a
year-and-a-half long triangle, the risk is
for an eventual trend down to $10-8.
Holding below nearby resistance at $29-
30 keeps the pattern firmly bearish.
PKX - Out at $72.09, I'll take the minor gain and raise a bit of cash in case tomorrow is a bad day.
ReplyDeleteACI - ACI is testing support near $4.90 and a
ReplyDeletebreak below this level would target the
$3.75 area, as suggested by both the
descending triangle and the
intermediate-term bearish continuation
pattern completed in early February.
Holding below yesterday’s high volume
downside gap of $5.17-$5.28 keeps the
pattern firmly bearish. Additional
resistance is $5.70.
HL - I guess the upgrade a couple days ago must've saved someone's bacon from taking a really deep bath.
ReplyDeleteAA - AA is testing major support near $8.00. A
ReplyDeletebreak below this level would confirm a
descending triangle breakdown and
target the $6.00 area. Resistance is $8.50
to $8.80. The downtrend line provides
additional resistance near $9.00.
THRX gapped up on high volume within
ReplyDeletethe up channel from late 2008. The chart
pattern is positive, with upside potential
to channel resistance near $35 and chart
resistance at the 2007 highs near $37.
The pattern remains firmly bullish while
above yesterday’s upside price gap at
$23.84-$25.26. Channel support is in the
$20 area.
OEX/SPX Ratio at Key Fibonacci Support & Oversold
ReplyDeleteWithin this two-year pattern, the S&P 100 (mega caps) vs. S&P 500 (large caps) ratio or OEX/SPX ratio is testing key 61.8% Fibonacci support and is oversold with a bullish divergence on momentum (side bar). While there is no relative price bottom in place yet for mega caps, this is a sign of a bottoming process for the relative ratio. A firm bottom in the OEX/SPX ratio would refresh the leadership trend for the mega caps in our view. Stay tuned.
* 2013 Dogs of the Dow: GE, MCD, & VZ
* Most Attractive Buy List: CVX, GE, MO, & VZ
* Big technical bases or bottoms: BMY, GE, HAL, LOW, MMM, & VZ
* Recent 90-day upside price and volume breakout focus stock: BMY, GE, HAL, MMM, & PG.
* Higher-yielding stocks: BMY, CVX, GE, MCD, MO, & VZ
This came from an old report Mid Feb, sorry didn't notice till now.
DeleteGMO @ $1.77 - This price rings a bell for me, for some reason.
ReplyDeleteSQNM - I've completely lost track of this one but I see the November gap up is almost closed now.
ReplyDeleteCSTR - Will this one sell off now that the gap down is closed?
ReplyDeleteNG- Another large Paulson position. Take a look at the volume over the last 3 days. Might have something here to trade off of. Anyone know anything about it? I think it's in NV.
ReplyDeleteyeesh. that guy is getting crushed. he should have just taken his profits in 08 and gone long SPY and went to sleep well at night. he's in the unenviable position of giving back all of his gains.
DeleteNova in Spanish means No Go. Can't be all that bad if Paulson owns it, I've heard of it but not sure now if it was positive or negative. Seems like the comments were positive, just can't nail it.
DeleteBarrick is involved, FWIW
DeleteAnd you have to back out the cash, b/c cash isn't worth anything.
DeleteBAP has big volume, and banks are always on the right side of the trade.
DeleteEPU - Kinda looks like the gap up from Sept is bound to close.
ReplyDeleteGuess who:
ReplyDelete"As one of the runners in yesterday’s wretched Boston Marathon said, “It seems like we’re living in a movie”. There are many investors of commodity and precious metal prices who were saying the same thing yesterday. It’s time we all sat back to think about what’s happening in our world.
Is there a script? When the President stated that the culprits would be brought to justice, was he not saying that we need government, that we must trust government to protect us?
Given that it is the intervention and stupidities of government in the first place that have led to a dysfunctional society, I have to ask the question, isn’t that exactly what we don’t need?
The downside to the events in Boston is that people in crowds will never again feel safe because they know that government cannot protect them. Investors and traders are feeling the same. Before Boston, in the WIR last weekend, I expressed my great concern about the script we are following today. I don’t like it."
Someone who's very opinionated, to the point of having gone off the deep end without regard for the consequences.
DeleteGenghis Khan
DeleteLOL! ;)
DeleteAPA has volume
ReplyDeleteHSY - Bastards, making tiny chocolate bars and charging twice as much.
ReplyDeleteJNJ, you ought to see the new tri pack of band aids at costco. I bet the amount of banadages is half what it used to be and costs 20% more.
ReplyDeleteSign of the times.
Dang, I should'a bought a short ETF.
ReplyDeleteWho makes street cameras, I bet they get some monster orders soon?
ReplyDeleteAGO - They always run this one up the day before the SPX sheds gains.
ReplyDeleteTXT - Cessna stalls.
ReplyDeletePNC - Going higher
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteYHOO - Neut -> Buy
ReplyDeleteLDK - Defaulted, eh?
ReplyDelete