http://youtu.be/HvTWShHSr7Q
Have you ever blogged in a cage
Where you live to be whipped and be tamed
For I've never minimized losses
Or stopped out, or just caved
Gold Saves. The sisters are definitely into owning gold/miners as a sophisticated form of self-flagellation for the purpose of purifying the soul.
Dr. S is back to posting on the Sis, and immediately exchanges blows with the bouncer.
ReplyDeleteDamn, I missed the midday plunge in the markets.
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing the bouncer is VAD, the most honest one who posts there.
ReplyDeletePerhaps a better operative word choice instead of "honest" would be "sane".
DeleteKarma cleanser can perform a bangup job of purifying the soul if applied according to the directions, if not done correctly it just makes a smeary mess known as what goes around comes around.
DeleteBetter known as "mud butt".
DeleteFolks, now is not the time to laugh at gold bugs. Seriously. For one, they have just suffered a totally demoralizing collapse in the PM sector and are trying to put themselves together in any way they can. More importantly, with all gold/silver sentiment indicators at rock bottom, we are likely to see a major rebound rally soon (in fact, it might have started last Tuesday).
ReplyDeleteOne thing that used to cast doubts in my mind on the possibility of a major silver rally from the month-long plateau made in March was the fact that there were more than 10K net long silver contracts in the non-reportable section. Going back 6 years, the lowest net long position was observed in May 2012 at 4400 contracts. During the December 2008 low the net long position in that category was 7900 contracts and during the December 2011 and July 2012 lows the net long position was around 7000 contracts (the tops of medium-term silver rallies corresponded to more than 20K net long contracts, ). Well, as of last Tuesday, the net long position dropped to 4900 contracts, which is low enough to propel a major rally in silver. So my crazy purchase of AUMN calls today might actually work out. :)
This article http://www.zealllc.com/2013/goldpanic.htm describes the major selling that happened in the futures market during the recent gold/silver panic.
Not funny at all.
Delete"Grandpa pissed his pants again
He don't give a damn
Brother Billy has both guns drawn
He ain't been right since Vietnam"
David- I'm simply echoing Vad's sentiments. (I'm surprised he's experienced no pushback for his comments, but there are perks to being the bouncer.)
DeleteIMO, the most effective way to view tragedy is through a comic lens. It's no joke, really. Ask the guys who canceled their stop losses after hearing from the pulpit that 'gold will hit 1615 within days.' More like 1350 and in a daze.
Overheard in the sister bar. 'And it's one-two-three what are we blogging for, don't ask me I don't give a damn my port's been Vietnam'd.'
DeleteLPI - Insiders own collectivly, around $27 million in common shares?
ReplyDeleteKWK - I think I calculated that insiders own somewhere in the neighborhood of $50 million in common shares?
This sounds like eating your own cooking to me, not chump change?
Raw industrials - Looks like support has given way (for the time being?) the numbers don't seem to match, perhaps the chart is ahead of reported figures?:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.crbtrader.com/data.asp?page=chart&sym=BVY00&name=BLS%20Raw%20Industrials&domain=crb&display_ice=1&cancelstudy=&type=LINE&studies=SMA%2813%29;&a=W
PKG - Met expectation, didn't it?
ReplyDeleteAir Products has a well written MSDS for ammonia:
ReplyDelete"Ammonia can cause severe eye, skin and
respiratory tract burns. It poses an immediate fire and explosion hazard when concentrations exceed 15%; therefore, area must be ventilated before entering. Wear self-contained breathing apparatus (SCBA) when entering release area if concentrations exceed allowable exposure limits. Fully protective suits are required in large releases. Always be aware of fire and explosion potential in the case of large
releases.
SPECIAL FIRE FIGHTING INSTRUCTIONS: Evacuate all personnel from area. If possible without risk, stop the flow of Ammonia, then fight fire according to types of materials that are burning. Extinguish fire only if gas flow can be stopped. This will avoid possible accumulation and re-ignition of a flammable gas mixture. If possible, move adjacent cylinders away from fire area. Keep adjacent cylinders cool by spraying with large amounts of water until the fire burns itself out. Self-contained breathing apparatus (SCBA) may be required.
http://avogadro.chem.iastate.edu/MSDS/NH3_gas.pdf
DBB - New 52wk low
ReplyDeleteJust to prove I do follow along, the biggest REIT conversion was WY.
ReplyDeleteSo, the concern over a REIT bubble is actually a warning that banks have dumped their junk by converting their trash to REIT's, is that what we're saying?
DeleteThat could be very true, but WY has been into this REIT idea for quite a while.
DeleteThey have vast land holdings from the RR grant days and their inventory is constantly growing. They are in the RE business in areas close to cities where timber isn't the highest use of the land and development now makes sense because of urban sprawl.
I am intrigued by your conclusion of most REITs. I'll bet you are right.
I suspect PMT is one that BAC has dumped their dying assets into, and it managed by former Countrywide management.
DeleteThe other side of the argument of course involves a continuing negative campaign against REIT's that pay handsome dividends, typical widespread scare tactics not unlike tweeting BS bomb scares on the White house.
DeleteSo yesterday's plunge was due to a twitter rumor of an attack and bombing of the White house.
ReplyDeleteLots of leverage to a rising coal price, I'm just not sure about how usage plays out compared to nat gas:
ReplyDeleteConclusion: It doesn't take much of a price increase for mining companies such as Arch Coal (ACI) to be profitable. Last year Arch sold 140.8 million tons of coal for $4.2 billion and had an adjusted loss of $77 million, a scant 1.9% increase in the price of coal would have given them a small profit. If coal goes up at all, an increase of only $5 per ton could translate into an EPS of about $3. Arch closed on Friday at $4.79/share.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/1363601-eia-wrong-on-coal-forecasts
Boyd Gaming Corp: 1Q first take: solid quarter driven by LV Locals
ReplyDeleteLooks like GMO's CEO bought some shares @ 1.88 the other day.
ReplyDeleteKWK - I'll probably take a position in this one if it closes better than $2.73
ReplyDeleteHave you done any fundamental work on it?
DeleteSome work, but it's not easy to obtain a comprehensive understanding of the business. At least insiders have a large position, that means a lot to me.
DeleteI'll see if MOG knows it. I kinda doubt it. I'm still looking into NFX.
DeleteNFX - Well gee man, no need to be a hold-out on us.... it's up today, too.
DeleteBIDU - Reports tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteI can't believe it's come to this...we're out of milk so I'm having pretzels for breakfast.
ReplyDeleteBreakfast of champions! ;)
DeleteIf I could have a beer then we'd really be talking!
DeleteIt's past noon somewhere in the world, but it has to be an unfinished beer remaining from last night to score maximum points, not a fresh cold one.
DeleteNOR - Well, there ya go.....
ReplyDeleteThat's a new one to me.
DeleteI sold this one @ $4.46, entry was $4.45, b/c I discovered my broker had extended an 11% loan for better than 60% of market cap. BACML using leverage to vacuum up future wealth, and maybe dump it into the too big to fail government welfare program if the business takes a crap.
DeleteOn the bright side, their manufacturing process is geared toward substituting cheap natty for electricity.
Brandt has an update on the silver chart, with bear flag.
ReplyDeleteBYD and FSLR stick out on my board.
ReplyDeleteBYD was a great call, I was way too skeptical.
DeleteThey have completely transformed that business over the past 2 years, shedding assets and picking up outperforming ones on the cheap. Plus, the online gambling catalyst affects them more than any other casino operator.
DeleteLPI - Mark, while you're at it, ask MOG about this one if he seems talkative.
ReplyDeleteEPD, as well....
DeleteBAS - Reports in AH today, this company should be busy as beavers out there in West Tx. servicing wells.
ReplyDeleteAre they making money? I have no idea, does the oil industry make money?
GASS - Has something poisoned this one, or is it a huge buy here on the lower trend line?
ReplyDeleteNOK: my guess is it goes to $3.6...stalls, then zooms higher.
ReplyDeleteChart pattern for MBI looks excellent. I believe BAC set aside more money for a settlement with them. This will go big time if that happens.
ReplyDeleteSimilar situation with AGO concerning BAC, I guess.
DeleteGGB - This thing's been on a tear off the $7 bottom, 'bout time for some profit taking here at the 50SMA?
ReplyDeleteBALT - Probably on it's way back up...
ReplyDeleteF - "Ford is toast" - Is the comment I recall hearing as it was trading around $9....
ReplyDeleteAUMN - Wouldn't it be great if this one went to the $30's?
ReplyDeleteNATI - Reports tomorrow after close, I'm really interested in who this one trades through August, hoping it doesn't take off higher from here before then
BIDU - Holding my nose into earnings, line to buy seems thin.
GMO - Volume is up, and the bid size seems persistent.
ReplyDeleteComputers reacting to false Syrian tweet dumped stocks yesterday?
ReplyDeleteNFX neutral per UBS
ReplyDelete1Q EPS In Line; Reaffirms Lofty FY Targets
1Q EPS above UBSe on lower income taxes and better price realizations NFX reported 1Q13 clean EPS of $0.45, in line with consensus but
above UBSe $0.35 on lower than estimated tax rate (~$0.06/sh) & higher than expected gas price realizations and oil production. EBITDX of $361 MM
fell 15% YoY but was 7% above UBSe. Production of 70.2 Bcfe fell 9% YoY but was 4% above UBSe 67.2 Bcfe & beat consensus’ 68.6 Bcfe. Unit
costs rose 14% YoY to $7.73/Mcfe, 20% above the peer group average of $6.42/Mcfe and 2% above our forecast.
Reiterates full year production & capex guidance; trimming estimates NFX maintained ‘13 production guidance of 44-47 MMBoe, which assumes
39% YoY growth in U.S. liquids volumes but a 27% YoY decline in int’l production. The company also reiterated its ’13 capex target of $1.8bn, implying
a $730 MM organic FCF deficit and materially below avg debt adjusted growth. We trimmed our 2013-14E EPS/CFPS to $1.40/$7.90 & $2.40/$8.00 on
wider oil price diffs.
Key issues to monitor for the remainder of 2013: 1) sale of its international portfolio (Malaysia & China) which we believe may be worth up to $1.5
billion; material deviations from this estimate have a meaningful impact on 2014 valuation given NFX has just 135 MM shares outstanding; 2) ability to
achieve the material improvement in capital efficiency implied by full year 2013 production guidance, which assumes volumes increase >20 MBoed in
2H13 alone vs. just ~17.5 MBoed growth over the 18 months prior.
Valuation: lowering price target to $22 from $28 $22 PT based on 5.2x '14E DACF, in line w/ peers despite sub-par debt-adj growth.
I need a beer to ward off the vertigo.
ReplyDeleteVMW, been sniffing this for awhile. Hey CP I think you own this.
ReplyDeleteRare Accelerating Growth Story on Sale
Reiteration of Full Year Guidance a Rare Occurrence Q1 Earnings Season Key metric license +1.3% is unimpressive but inline is good
considering Q1 tech storm. Ingredients are in place for accelerated license growth in FQ2 (y/y adj. license guide +2-5%) with acceleration expected in
2H on ELA renewal tailwind (FQ1 saw strong ELA trends suggesting healthy outlook for 2H), modest uptick in macro expected, and transactional
revenue should get back on track with the March launch of channel-oriented vSOM (vSphere + vC Ops bundle, higher ASP than vSphere, targets midmarket)
with channel incentives in place to stimulate demand.
Estimate Changes From a revenue perspective VMW is a 2H story though earnings go up on better than expected margin guide. FY13e to
$5.19B/$3.30 from $5.23B/$3.27 on license +6.5% (+7.0% prior), margins 33.6% (33.0% prior). FY14e to $5.97B/$3.80 from $6.01B/$3.76 on license
+10.9% (+12.0% prior), margins 34.0% (+40bps y/y).
FQ1 Notable Items 1) Calculated bookings +6% understates growth, bookings/license bookings were up 10%+ y/y adjusted for timing of OEM
bookings/impact of exited businesses. 2) Exceeded bookings plan for vCloud Suite with 3x greater ASPs than vSphere. 3) 30%+ of license bookings
were products ex-vSphere. 4) Competes with MSFT only at very low-end of the market, low ASPs so limited impact to financial results.
Valuation: AH Trades17x CY13 FCF/share. Buy Pessimism/Sell Optimism Stock has been in 3-yr trading range $70-$115. We believe it will
continue to prove prescient buying near bottom. PT $105 based on 20x revised forward NTM FCF.
Went long at 71.77, 1st third, going to try and build.
DeleteI took my gains at $80.28 following the recent run, wouldn't mind reloading though.
DeleteNOR wonder if this pushes AA
ReplyDeleteAA - Klaus hems and haws but doesn't seem to be able to deliver.
DeleteNOR's report seems to have helped KALU though so maybe.
Europe's gonna need new autos at some point, who's the aluminum producer of choice there?
GASL/KWK - Last call for alcohol, I guess...
ReplyDeleteMBI:
ReplyDeleteThis company offers insurance on public finance projects as well as mortgages and took a huge beating during the recession. They did a big restructuring to protect its municipal bond insurance unit (the one that insures public projects) from their mortgage unit and they sued Bank of America over fraud related to mortgages issued by Countrywide, which is owned by BAC. The suit is still ongoing but BAC recently set aside more money for settlement with MBI. I think if they do settle MBI could be a huge winner. Actually, with the housing market improving and the credit markets improving, I think they will be a huge winner regardless. I would buy it right here.
Berkowitcz likes it
ReplyDeleteForm SC 13G/A MBIA INC Filed by: FAIRHOLME CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLCBY 10K Wizard
— 4:49 PM ET 04/10/2013
http://xml.10kwizard.com/filing_raw.php?repo=tenk&ipage=8852500
Bad news for end of the world gun nuts: GE Capital to stop lending to gun dealers, Cerberous looking at selling their arms manufacturer holdings.
ReplyDeleteVMW - Stinky at $70.83, who knows, maybe shorts get overenthusiastic.
ReplyDeleteMBI - $10.12 stinky, but it's probably too low.
GASL - Also, $19.45
Lies and deceit...
By the rivers of my memories
ReplyDeleteEver smilin' ever gentle on my mind.
Say what? Weren't there a recent flurry of articles claiming demand was softening?
ReplyDelete"Qualcomm raises full-year forecast on smartphone demand."
CAKE - Up
ReplyDeleteI love that restaurant. Wonder if we can get it at $5 again.
DeleteNOR - BACML - Noranda Aluminum Holding Corp.: Downgrade to Neutral; lack of catalysts and limited cash flow
ReplyDeleteBig Duh....
new post
ReplyDeleteTCK - "Teck Resources Ltd: Maintain Buy and PO following strong 1Q13. QB2 delayed
ReplyDelete4/24/2013 8:46 PM
We reiterate TCK Buy rating and C$43/sh PO following TCK strong 1Q13 results and unchanged 2013 prod'n outlook. TCK message to investors regarding its M&A strategy on its 1Q13 call was clear."