OK, I'll comment. My meager port did well today but I am still going glub, glub since the start of the year. (not trading). Oh well, it's only funny money.
Interesting start to the day. PFE, which acording to Hulbert has been the most widely-recommended stock among the best of the market timers he follows, is down -4% on disappointing earnings.
TXT even has the H&S pattern with a positively sloped neckline. Still it played out. Maybe the positive slope means something, and it share price just needed to test $25 support.
Sold my shares in shipper Seaspan (SSW) today. They are a container shipper, well run, with a good dividend, but getting expensive at 110% of book value. They also do long term contracts which helped during the downturn, but limit leverage if the market improves.
Still have Navios Maritime (NM. It's in the much more competitive commodity shipping area, but is well run, low debt, good dividend, plus have the South America logistics/barge business.
The thing that is hard about the shippers is it appears to be a well-followed industry with many people having much better information than I do, so hard to gain a competitive advantage, even being an individual investor.
Oh, I also own Fly Aircraft Leasing (FLY). I feel more comfortable with this one as it as 80% of book (and book value seems overstated as they often sell planes at a premium to book value), low P/E, 6% yield, plus management does a good job of financial tweaking (eg. buying back debt at $0.50 on the dollar during the financial crisis). Plus, they are in bed with Private equity firm Onex, so chance of a takeout.
My broker covers it, I'm not sure how low rates support values unless they're referring to financing rates, as opposed to lease rates:
"Aircraft Leasing: Reasonable valuations but uninspiring fundamentals 3/11/2013 1:34 PM
Despite seemingly inexpensive valuations, our industry view is neutral. Low rates support aircraft values, but too many planes, record planned deliveries, and subpar global economic growth."
"Too many planes", wonder if they're right and have to lower their estimates for the likes of TXT and/or BA?
LTON: wow. I mentioned this one a while ago because it had a very powerful chart pattern (ascending triangle) with a potential break above $3...and broke it did. the ascending triangle, from my own personal experience, is the best tradeable pattern.
BYD put in a mini ascending triangle pattern in early March. VG was another one with a break above $2.50 back in January. TA was another one with a break above $7.90 in March.
OWW looks like a C&H on the monthly chart with a potential move up to $12.50. On shorter time frame (weekly) it is putting in the handle on a smaller C&H pattern on this pullback. I really like this pullback as a buying opportunity. Fundamentals support a much higher price.
GASL - "on a percentage change basis, the ETF with the largest increase in inflows was the Daily Natural Gas Related Bull 3x Shares (GASL), which added 600,000 shares, for a whopping 70.6% increase in outstanding shares."
holy shit i just looked at RAD and then looked at the financials again. I can't believe I ignored that one. it was all there in writing. huge turnaround in operating income, then return to positive free cash flow, then positive net income, then debt restructuring. this stock has a lot more upside potential. While they have a ton of debt still, keep in mind they have generated $500 million in free cash flow in the past 12 months and any potential acquirer would also get a ton of tax loss carryforwards to use. This same scenario played out with NLS and in my opinion it is playing out with YRCW.
2nd was hangin out down on the corner of RAD & PM when a golden Cadillac came tooling 'round the corner, he accidentally dropped his cherry soda as the shimmer of the fancy pimp-mobile distracted him.
I think this is the sweet spot in investing in this portion of the bull market. Look at OWW, TA, BYD, CZR, RAD, APP. all have/had similar scenarios: huge debt loads, some had negative equity...
a lot of people played this junk rally in 2011 and 2012 and got burnt holding on too long. that is another reason why i like this idea going forward...people are gun shy to play this trade a 3rd time; however, most of these are genuinely turning things around.
UNH has ramped their mail order scripts service, not sure how that eventually impacts traditional consumer supply lines but I'd prefer not having to deal with pharmacists with sticks up their wazoos always second guessing physicians and roughing up customers by making them wait 30 minutes after driving to the pharmacy, refusing to fill orders b/c they don't feel comfortable and any other excuse they can manufacture, etc..
'2nd was hangin' out down on the corner of RAD & PM when a golden Cadillac came tooling 'round the corner, he accidentally dropped his cherry soda as the shimmer of the fancy pimp-mobile distracted him.'
The Caddie screeched to a stop. The rear window motored down. 2nd reached for the small Beretta Nano strapped to his ankle and unloaded the entire clip at the faint glimmer in the back seat.
AAPL - Seems like a sweet deal for Apple, no wonder the stock was up today.
NUAN - Just noticed the earnings response, time for Ichan to "get involved"? Voice recognition is a fascinating technology but maybe it's kinda old hat? Gonna need a faster fast Fourier transform, or something.... How about adding street camera suspicious object/activity recognition to the portfolio?
OK, I'll comment. My meager port did well today but I am still going glub, glub since the start of the year. (not trading). Oh well, it's only funny money.
ReplyDeleteI would've done well today if it weren't for the lame Chinese stock I own.
ReplyDeleteFamiliar theme, eh?
DEER fell $0.02 today, trades like a bankrupt PM mining company, another 25% haircut.
HXL - How about lightweight aircraft composites instead of BS excuses?
ReplyDeleteFIG - Moving up heading into earnings.
ReplyDeleteTypical....
ReplyDeleteSold LED for a decent profit the other day, up big yesterday and 25% more today.
Did alright with BOIL.
YRCW seems to be happy enough.
Look at TSL, shazam/gazoom! Going to $6.25?
DeleteGive it a listen.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.rustradio.org/
CKH - Reports today, one I've been watching lately.
ReplyDeleteNLY - Just checked my account balance to find NLY's dividend, and a new portfolio high for the year.
ReplyDeleteRitchie Bros: Weak top line, earnings disappoint
ReplyDeleteKRC - Neutral -> Buy
ReplyDeleteSNV - Neutral -> Buy
MKSI - Broke out to upside of channel.
ReplyDeleteTXT - Long @ $25.97
ReplyDeleteVMW @ $70.83 Will dump this one soon.
ReplyDeleteDang, VMW stinks.
DeleteInteresting start to the day. PFE, which acording to Hulbert has been the most widely-recommended stock among the best of the market timers he follows, is down -4% on disappointing earnings.
ReplyDeleteEven more interesting is my inability to gain full access to the Fido site.
DeleteHowever, it should be no surprise to any of us what's happening with the bipolar miners.
DeleteBMY - I think this one has a gap down from $70ish, four or more years back?
DeleteWhat I'm saying is, there's a possibility it closes that gap down but might revisit low $30's before, b/c prices don't move in a straight line.
DeleteCP is a trading machine! TXT chart is interesting. Thx.
ReplyDeleteStink bids were filled.
DeleteTXT even has the H&S pattern with a positively sloped neckline. Still it played out. Maybe the positive slope means something, and it share price just needed to test $25 support.
DeleteI playing left wing position over here, BTW.
DeleteCKH - That's a gap down for ya, island reversal play,
ReplyDeleteVMW - $70.07, one cent from the 52wk high.
ReplyDeleteBTU - Noticing this one's green.....
ReplyDeleteDMND - This one's forming an pendant, which way do you think it breaks out, and why?
ReplyDeleteGap up from a couple days ago was closed this morning.
Delete6 months ago, our governor ordered all state vehicles to be transitioned over to natty.
ReplyDeleteWPRT - Okay, what do you guys think of this chart?
ReplyDeleteAdd CLNE and FSYS to your comments if you're feeling groovy.
NATI - My panties are in a tight wad for missing $23....
ReplyDeleteVMW - Out at $70.89 with a few pennies, one new position for today is enough.
ReplyDeleteNOK - here she comes.
ReplyDeleteBYD - just...wow. wow.
BYD - Forward is only 84, still a screaming buy!
DeleteNOK - Yep, gap is closed, where to from here? Forward is only 24, lots more upside potential...
DeleteBX - Blackstone Joins Forces with White House Initiative to Hire 50,000 Veterans
ReplyDeleteSay what? The sweethearts at BX swoop in to buy up the housing fiasco and they're going to hire Vets, eh?
Hmm, Vets and housing, something going on, create your own government funded market or something?
REIT's should join this market, up, up, up they'd go......
DeleteCKH - Gap down nearly filled.
ReplyDeleteHES - On the US1 list with an PO of 90
ReplyDeleteSTSI - Scandal and controversy
ReplyDeletePoliticians are slippery reptiles, expert at the game of campaign kickbacks and dirty deals done dirt cheap.
Deletehttp://www.jamesaltucher.com/2010/11/8-reasons-not-to-daytrade/
ReplyDeleteI like the way he writes, it flows well and isn't confusing.
DeleteSome interesting points, but a bit negative I would say.
DeleteCounterpoint
http://blog.traderslibrary.com/traders-library/2010/11/24-reasons-to-day-trade-a-response-to-james-altuchers-8-reasons-not-to-daytrade.html
Regardless of what side of the river you are on, daytrading is hard work.
DeleteSuccess is the achievement of an on going goal.
LF - Wonder if this one breaks to upside?
ReplyDeleteVMW it looks like 70 is the line in the sand.
ReplyDelete$70 certainly held today, it came really fast though and I was unprepared for that.
DeleteSold my shares in shipper Seaspan (SSW) today. They are a container shipper, well run, with a good dividend, but getting expensive at 110% of book value. They also do long term contracts which helped during the downturn, but limit leverage if the market improves.
ReplyDeleteStill have Navios Maritime (NM. It's in the much more competitive commodity shipping area, but is well run, low debt, good dividend, plus have the South America logistics/barge business.
The thing that is hard about the shippers is it appears to be a well-followed industry with many people having much better information than I do, so hard to gain a competitive advantage, even being an individual investor.
Oh, I also own Fly Aircraft Leasing (FLY). I feel more comfortable with this one as it as 80% of book (and book value seems overstated as they often sell planes at a premium to book value), low P/E, 6% yield, plus management does a good job of financial tweaking (eg. buying back debt at $0.50 on the dollar during the financial crisis). Plus, they are in bed with Private equity firm Onex, so chance of a takeout.
I'm liking FLY..... On my list, this one looks good here(to me).
DeleteMy broker covers it, I'm not sure how low rates support values unless they're referring to financing rates, as opposed to lease rates:
Delete"Aircraft Leasing: Reasonable valuations but uninspiring fundamentals
3/11/2013 1:34 PM
Despite seemingly inexpensive valuations, our industry view is neutral. Low rates support aircraft values, but too many planes, record planned deliveries, and subpar global economic growth."
"Too many planes", wonder if they're right and have to lower their estimates for the likes of TXT and/or BA?
LTON: wow. I mentioned this one a while ago because it had a very powerful chart pattern (ascending triangle) with a potential break above $3...and broke it did. the ascending triangle, from my own personal experience, is the best tradeable pattern.
ReplyDeleteBYD put in a mini ascending triangle pattern in early March.
VG was another one with a break above $2.50 back in January.
TA was another one with a break above $7.90 in March.
OWW looks like a C&H on the monthly chart with a potential move up to $12.50. On shorter time frame (weekly) it is putting in the handle on a smaller C&H pattern on this pullback. I really like this pullback as a buying opportunity. Fundamentals support a much higher price.
Although OWW does indeed have a lot of ST debt and will have to do some sort of debt restructuring soon.
DeleteInsider selling makes my liver quiver (fugu feeling).
DeleteSPR - PE is only 92, plenty of room for upside.
ReplyDeleteGASL - "on a percentage change basis, the ETF with the largest increase in inflows was the Daily Natural Gas Related Bull 3x Shares (GASL), which added 600,000 shares, for a whopping 70.6% increase in outstanding shares."
ReplyDeleteholy shit i just looked at RAD and then looked at the financials again. I can't believe I ignored that one. it was all there in writing. huge turnaround in operating income, then return to positive free cash flow, then positive net income, then debt restructuring. this stock has a lot more upside potential. While they have a ton of debt still, keep in mind they have generated $500 million in free cash flow in the past 12 months and any potential acquirer would also get a ton of tax loss carryforwards to use. This same scenario played out with NLS and in my opinion it is playing out with YRCW.
ReplyDeleteI think RAD is a buy even after the big run.
My guess is there's a bunch of RAD's out there, can't understand why you're not sniffing them all out. Get busy, man!
DeleteThanks, looking at RAD now.
2nd was hangin out down on the corner of RAD & PM when a golden Cadillac came tooling 'round the corner, he accidentally dropped his cherry soda as the shimmer of the fancy pimp-mobile distracted him.
DeleteAgain, insider selling, WTF??????
DeleteNS has insider buying.
DeleteI think this is the sweet spot in investing in this portion of the bull market. Look at OWW, TA, BYD, CZR, RAD, APP. all have/had similar scenarios: huge debt loads, some had negative equity...
Deletea lot of people played this junk rally in 2011 and 2012 and got burnt holding on too long. that is another reason why i like this idea going forward...people are gun shy to play this trade a 3rd time; however, most of these are genuinely turning things around.
DeleteUNH has ramped their mail order scripts service, not sure how that eventually impacts traditional consumer supply lines but I'd prefer not having to deal with pharmacists with sticks up their wazoos always second guessing physicians and roughing up customers by making them wait 30 minutes after driving to the pharmacy, refusing to fill orders b/c they don't feel comfortable and any other excuse they can manufacture, etc..
DeleteRAD on a pullback to the 10wk EMA is quite interesting. I'll be watching this for an oversold reading on RSI_EMA as well.
DeleteSWC - Interesting what can happen when activist investors light a fire under managerial azz.
ReplyDeletePKX - Back to $72 where I took meager gains, this one simply refuses to flush....
ReplyDeleteEMC just keeps on buying VMW, another $15M the past several days.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.joc.com/trucking-logistics/ltl-shipping/yrc-worldwide/yrcs-welch-aims-2013-operating-profit_20130429.html
ReplyDelete'2nd was hangin' out down on the corner of RAD & PM when a golden Cadillac came tooling 'round the corner, he accidentally dropped his cherry soda as the shimmer of the fancy pimp-mobile distracted him.'
ReplyDeleteThe Caddie screeched to a stop. The rear window motored down. 2nd reached for the small Beretta Nano strapped to his ankle and unloaded the entire clip at the faint glimmer in the back seat.
'----!'
'----!'
'----, ----, ----.'
'M---------in' ----.'
'Wtf, my ----in' soda.'
Writing dialogue is easy in the 21st century.
LOL, such as life, shiny penny stuff! ;)
DeleteAAPL - Seems like a sweet deal for Apple, no wonder the stock was up today.
ReplyDeleteNUAN - Just noticed the earnings response, time for Ichan to "get involved"? Voice recognition is a fascinating technology but maybe it's kinda old hat? Gonna need a faster fast Fourier transform, or something.... How about adding street camera suspicious object/activity recognition to the portfolio?
NUAN - Insider transaction fugu factor.
DeleteHLF - Looks like volume was up a tad today, buying the breakout or distribution into a fake breakout?
I have to go with the latter for now, perhaps another illustration of how I trust nothing.
CECO - 41% of college grads overqualified
ReplyDeleteThis must be good......
OSK - Nobody liked it, huh?
ReplyDeleteSPLK - Forward PE is 370, insider fugu factor flashing. Is this one likely to keep rising?
ReplyDeleteURA - Perhaps a bounce, or is Japan going to restart their reactors after-all?
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Respectable earnings response.
ReplyDeleteBAH - No need to look at this chart.
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDeleteAMT - Solid beat
ReplyDelete