oh man. i think i owned that in the $2 range. crazy stuff huh? that's what makes me think YRCW goes much much higher...stocks like this one and so many others that rallied 10x or more.
There was some talk about how YRCW will have to give back all of the concessions that they got when they turn a profit. The issue with this is two fold:
(1) Why would the union approve the most recent network overhaul if they knew they were close to turning a profit? Isn't that another concession?
(2) The union owns a big chunk of the company so it's in their best interest for the company to be as profitable as possible and for the stock to go up as much as possible.
There's plenty more upside here. I still think they do $0.50 EPS in q3 2013 and $3 to $4 EPS in FY 2014 based on fully diluted shares of 23 million. 12X = $36 to $48 stock price. Doesn't mean it won't be a rocky ride.
Ran into the mother of a girl who plays on Kendra's soccer team at dinner last night. She's a financial adviser for Schwab and just got her Series 7 license. She didn't know what EBITDA was.
YRCW - I have to try to figure this out...., have I got it right?
We're talking about inside ownership heading into earnings of just $1.28mm, right?
Insiders bought $222,000 in the last six months, which granted is quite a bit of buying but that doesn't sound like the whole of the company loaded up to me, I know I'm missing something?
Insider transactions: Purchases last 6 mos: 37,000 (=$222,000 @$6) Net Shares Purchased (Sold) 37,000 (none) Total Insider Shares Held 213.74K (=$1,282,440 @$6) % Net Shares Purchased (Sold) 20.9%
In uncommon fashion I held through the monster spike in YRCW and I have a lot of YRCW. Having holders remorse a bit as I was contemplating off loading at 11.xx. Had I been easily connected that Friday I probably would have dropped some. Biggest winner for me since I held VXX for a huge gain.
Still in NOK with but losing patience slighlty down.
Holding a big chunk of XHB up about 10%.
Stopped out for 8% losses in CEF and GDX awhile back (were huge positions) those prices have dropped a ton more so the stops are looking good right now.
Have a decent chunk of cash that I am looking to deploy somewhere.
"Beginning with the third quarter of this year, the BEA plans to report the U.S. GDP and national income accounts on a new basis. One of the purposes of the change is to better reflect the importance of intellectual capital and technological innovation in the modern economy. These changes are expected to cause the reported value of GDP to be about 3% higher than when calculated under the present system."
From Hussman's latest weekly comment: "Based on a variety of factors, our return/risk estimates in precious metals shares backed off modestly last week, and we clipped our exposure to a smaller but still constructive 14% of assets [from the 20% he had prior to the big gold crash]." Could one of those factors have been the fact that small futures speculators became net short gold for the first time ever? I thought Hussman didn't like to follow the crowds and sell when everyone is most pessimistic, but maybe enough clients put pressure on him: "You are destroying our wealth by fighting the S&P, so can you please stop aggravating the situation by going long PM miners!!!"
Commodity Weekly - Steel may see downward revision given lower iron ore price; Thermal coal: sector downgrade, we see further downside; Coking coal: price holding up; demand weak; Cement: price in Zhejiang hiked
PAL- This is a critical year for our transition and it will certainly not be without its challenges. We have a plan to unlock the high potential value of LDI, but this plan is contingent on a successful completion of a financing, therefore we are currently evaluating financing opportunities."
Feb 22: "In the Q4'12 earnings release, it states the company plans to access capital markets to strengthen the balance sheet, but from earlier work, we estimate the debt covenants limit the amount of new debt to about $13 million and, thus, we see the need for a relatively substantial equity offering ($50-75 million, by our estimates) or other financing in the near term.
dude - i was reading through the 10k. frigging awful. there are like 50 pages about accreditation of their schools and the impact Congress has had on their business. however, it doesn't look like the cash isn't legit. 1/4 is restricted and another 1/4 is set aside for its overseas non-for-profit schools, but from first glance it's really cash and is the rest i'm in the stock. It trades at 1/2 net cash.
i have a small stake at $2.25 that I'll hold through earnings.
BIDU - Out @ $87.05 with a 1/2 tank of gas, might try reentry if it trades down or something, looks to me like this one is pretty weak and I don't enjoy water boarding anymore.
AGO settled with Credit Suisse for $358 million on a $4 billion market cap, so about 9%.
Assured has filed similar lawsuits against units of JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX) and Flagstar Bancorp Inc (FBC.N). It had earlier reached settlements with Bank of America (BAC.N) for $1.1 billion and Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) for $165.6 million, without filing lawsuits against them.
They say they have about 45% of their lawsuits outstanding, so maybe they get another billion?
Coal - May 6 (Reuters) - "Chinese coal miners are likely to cut output more to curb losses after a flood of cheap imports and higher hydro power output hit domestic demand in the world's top producer and consumer of the fuel, miners and traders said."
OK, I sold my YRCW as well. Normally I would just hold for the long term, but since all the trader types here seem to think this is a good time to sell, I am joining in to see if I can make a better return than usual. Not my usual style, but you never get better if you don't try different things.
alrighty...sold off the rest of YRCW at $13.9 to 14.2. I'm stoked this paid off and a few of us could make money on it. But it was a wild ride and was stressful. Probably dumb and I know the longer term picture is intact but this was my biggest $$ gain ever as I had basically 100% of my money in it and I need to take a much needed break. I've been going at this straight without many breaks for the past 4 years and I just need a week or so to unwind. In the past I would just move on to the next one and end up taking a 20% hit and adding more stress so I am going to change it up here...probably as the market rips another 100 S&P points but oh well.
Have two small positions in CECO and REDF and still hold a little NOK in one account. Other than that I have a bunch in cash. Good luck fellas!
CORN - Down, ha, ha, ha, it must've stopped raining, eh? Well, whatever. That's good for farm tractor sales and TITN is up today along with everything else under the sun aside from, of course, those things precious...
The reason is b/c somewhere right now, a lone butterfly has flapped it's wings in such a way as to cause the next financial crisis that just so happens starts at tomorrow's open.
CECO - "The loss from continuing operations for the first quarter of 2013 was $14.5 million, or -$0.22 per diluted share compared to the income from continuing operations of $41.7 million, or $0.62 per diluted share, for the first quarter of 2012. # The net loss for the first quarter of 2013 included a $6.7 million ($0.10 per diluted share) loss related to the pending sale of the American InterContinental University campus in London, England which is reported in other (expense) income. The sale closed on April 1, 2013."
This nudges the earnings metric in the right direction, from a ttm loss of -$0.50/quarter, seems much better. New student and student population are down slightly more than 20%.
I liked this report on the surface. They paid down $80 million remaining in outstanding borrowings so I believe they are now debt free with $300 million in net cash (vs market cap of $160 million).
PAL - I believe this company makes for a prime case study for how business is conducted in the PM mining industry, good insight into how the mentality just keeps on spiraling shareholder wealth right into an empty hole in the ground.
We all could have had ENPH for under 2 bucks. Just sayin.
ReplyDeleteIf YRCW pulls a BYD, I'll puke.
ReplyDeleteAny interest in MDW again Tele?
ReplyDeleteMDW could rally a good ways even if gold falls, I think it has before, hasn't it?
DeleteBuy low, sell high. On to the next one. I'll have to start taking more chances.
ReplyDeleteENPH under 2 bucks - That's worth saying. The thing is, I didn't see anything innovative about wiring solar cells together.
ReplyDeleteThere was a catalyst right near the low. The deal with Certain Teed.
DeleteACAS - I recall owning this one in the $4~5 range.
ReplyDeleteoh man. i think i owned that in the $2 range. crazy stuff huh? that's what makes me think YRCW goes much much higher...stocks like this one and so many others that rallied 10x or more.
DeletePZZI - Remember reading about this one not so long ago?
ReplyDeleteThere was some talk about how YRCW will have to give back all of the concessions that they got when they turn a profit. The issue with this is two fold:
ReplyDelete(1) Why would the union approve the most recent network overhaul if they knew they were close to turning a profit? Isn't that another concession?
(2) The union owns a big chunk of the company so it's in their best interest for the company to be as profitable as possible and for the stock to go up as much as possible.
There's plenty more upside here. I still think they do $0.50 EPS in q3 2013 and $3 to $4 EPS in FY 2014 based on fully diluted shares of 23 million. 12X = $36 to $48 stock price. Doesn't mean it won't be a rocky ride.
Delete"The union owns a big chunk of the company"
DeleteGood Fugu factor, important to me.
Does the union have pension at risk in the stock? If so, it MUST go up....., right?
DeleteARII - Looks like an upside down cup, this is the type of phenomenon that bothers me.
ReplyDeleteHII - Looks like a bull flag with a $64 target.
ReplyDeleteAgain, I keep hearing about how farm tractor sales are brisk.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't this support Brandt's bullish grain market case? Brandt cut his teeth trading commodity futures, so he knows where and what to watch for.
Tractor manufacturer insider ownership seem strong to me, that's good.
Yrcw!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteYrcw!!!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteYeah, nice move, I'm really happy to see this happening! ;)
DeleteRan into the mother of a girl who plays on Kendra's soccer team at dinner last night. She's a financial adviser for Schwab and just got her Series 7 license. She didn't know what EBITDA was.
ReplyDelete"She didn't know what EBITDA was."
DeleteOh crap!
Even so, I still feel like a financial moron though.
DeleteYRCW - I have to try to figure this out...., have I got it right?
ReplyDeleteWe're talking about inside ownership heading into earnings of just $1.28mm, right?
Insiders bought $222,000 in the last six months, which granted is quite a bit of buying but that doesn't sound like the whole of the company loaded up to me, I know I'm missing something?
Insider transactions:
Purchases last 6 mos: 37,000 (=$222,000 @$6)
Net Shares Purchased (Sold) 37,000 (none)
Total Insider Shares Held 213.74K (=$1,282,440 @$6)
% Net Shares Purchased (Sold) 20.9%
ENZN - Can this one go from $3 to $15 by October?
ReplyDeleteABX - More debt than annual sales.
ReplyDeleteIEP - +36% in the last four weeks.....
ReplyDeleteAMD +27% this week, do you guys read "Jesse's tweets?
ReplyDeleteIn uncommon fashion I held through the monster spike in YRCW and I have a lot of YRCW. Having holders remorse a bit as I was contemplating off loading at 11.xx. Had I been easily connected that Friday I probably would have dropped some. Biggest winner for me since I held VXX for a huge gain.
ReplyDeleteStill in NOK with but losing patience slighlty down.
Holding a big chunk of XHB up about 10%.
Stopped out for 8% losses in CEF and GDX awhile back (were huge positions) those prices have dropped a ton more so the stops are looking good right now.
Have a decent chunk of cash that I am looking to deploy somewhere.
GDP headed for 5% plus, by EOY:
ReplyDelete"Beginning with the third quarter of this year, the BEA plans to report the U.S. GDP and national income accounts on a new basis. One of the purposes of the change is to better reflect the importance of intellectual capital and technological innovation in the modern economy. These changes are expected to cause the reported value of GDP to be about 3% higher than when calculated under the present system."
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/52d23fa6-aa98-11e2-bc0d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2R6evFE6v
UGA - Gasoline should be a no-brainer, wouldn't you think?
ReplyDeleteNLS - Reports Monday in AH
ReplyDeleteYRCW - The flag pole is a hair longer than $3.50 in length, the breakout was from just under $8, so the target was ~$11.50
ReplyDeleteNaturally, technical traders would shed at least some of their position there, but it closed nearly $1 from the open, which of course is great.
MDW, Mark, I still track it but that is all for now. For me the juniors are pretty much destroyed and my pref would be large cap.
ReplyDeleteRGLD a royalty play could be interesting.
Here is a pdf from one of jesse's article's on insider buying from his weekend missive.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/article11638897.ece/BINARY/INK.pdf
Thanks Tele. Just getting back into it today.
DeleteThe twitter-sphere is oddly quite.
ReplyDelete$SPX - The IH&S move to 1658: 1597-1536=61 -> 1596+61=1658
ReplyDeleteJOY - Taking off again, but it's "cheap" at a PE of just 8, so it's overpriced. Too bad the PE isn't closer to 200, eh?
ReplyDeleteAA - $88k of insider buys this year, and $145k of sales. Does that sound like insiders are loading up?
ReplyDeleteFrom Hussman's latest weekly comment: "Based on a variety of factors, our return/risk estimates in precious metals shares backed off modestly last week, and we clipped our exposure to a smaller but still constructive 14% of assets [from the 20% he had prior to the big gold crash]." Could one of those factors have been the fact that small futures speculators became net short gold for the first time ever? I thought Hussman didn't like to follow the crowds and sell when everyone is most pessimistic, but maybe enough clients put pressure on him: "You are destroying our wealth by fighting the S&P, so can you please stop aggravating the situation by going long PM miners!!!"
ReplyDeleteAA - Total insider ownership is less than $1mm, not impressing me.
ReplyDeleteBTU - Insiders hold $20mm, that seems pretty good.
AA - Wrong, insiders own $7mm
DeleteTrying a little UGAZ @ 28.22...
ReplyDeleteOff @ 28.78...
DeleteToo freaking early!
DeletePCAR - Buy -> Neutral
ReplyDeleteDG - Neutral -> Buy This one could be a cup?
PAL?
ReplyDeleteDilution maybe? Last report said fair value is $1.10, then stopped coverage.
Delete"NAV is $1.10"
DeleteWrong, est NAV is $1.20
DeleteYRCW...printing 12.18
ReplyDeleteI'm offing at the open. Hope we see a dip....famous last words
DeleteCommodity Weekly - Steel may see downward revision given lower iron ore price; Thermal coal: sector downgrade, we see further downside; Coking coal: price holding up; demand weak; Cement: price in Zhejiang hiked
ReplyDeleteAGO - This one's still flying! $26.50 target
Took another 5% of YRCW off at $13
ReplyDeleteDown to about 70% of original position.
DeleteBuffett - "Bonds are a terrible investment"
ReplyDeleteIs the TOG here?
DeleteYRCW - up another 20%, eh? Nice!
ReplyDeleteVMW - Not bad, still moving Not sure if something changed.
ReplyDeleteSo Buffet says stocks are reasonably valued and will go much higher.
ReplyDeleteHussman says things are in the worst 1% of times to buy stocks.
Someone is very wrong here and Buffet almost always is right over time.
There's a trend in place best I can tell, and it appears Hussy's on the wrong side.
DeleteMissed a buck on yrcw quickly....hard to see that.
ReplyDeleteDown to 50% of position @ 13.95.
ReplyDeleteFBI provides fake bomb to terrorists Entrapment? I don't think so, no way!
ReplyDeletePAL - Bid at $0.75, don't expect it hits. Going BK maybe?
ReplyDeleteYRCW - Hey, you A-Holes had better buy drinks! ;)
ReplyDeletehah! 7:30 and CP is looking to booze?
DeleteI'm ALWAYS the guy buying drinks!
Delete"7:30 and CP is looking to booze?"
DeleteIf anticipating a celebration is wrong, then I'm dead wrong!
TXT - See chart, should I add here or take it off while still slightly green?
ReplyDeleteI feel I should add, deer in headlights sensation.
Looks good to me.
DeleteLater Gators!
PAL- This is a critical year for our transition and it will certainly not be without its challenges. We have a plan to unlock the high potential value of LDI, but this plan is contingent on a successful completion of a financing, therefore we are currently evaluating financing opportunities."
ReplyDeleteIf I remember correctly, the last equity raise was @ 1.80.
DeleteFeb 22: "In the Q4'12 earnings release, it states the company plans to access capital markets to strengthen the balance sheet, but from earlier work, we estimate the debt covenants limit the amount of new debt to about $13 million and, thus, we see the need for a relatively substantial equity offering ($50-75 million, by our estimates) or other financing in the near term.
DeleteI'm not sure if PAL will ever turn a profit, keep wondering why they seemed to think it was so important to chase gold.
DeleteConsider what might be going on in Mongolia, China may already have access to all the mineral deposits they'll need for the next 200 or more years?
So, if NAV is $1.20 and they need to raise $75mm, then fair market cap is $214mm and $75mm is a 35% haircut, right? That's a share price of $0.89?
DeleteThis assumes they stop trying to be something they're not and can actually become profitable someday in someone's wildest dream?
So you ask why PAL was recently trading at $2, my answer is because it can.
DeleteTrying CECO @ 2.23.
ReplyDeletedude - i was reading through the 10k. frigging awful. there are like 50 pages about accreditation of their schools and the impact Congress has had on their business. however, it doesn't look like the cash isn't legit. 1/4 is restricted and another 1/4 is set aside for its overseas non-for-profit schools, but from first glance it's really cash and is the rest i'm in the stock. It trades at 1/2 net cash.
Deletei have a small stake at $2.25 that I'll hold through earnings.
Crazy thing is YRCW still only trades at 0.06 price to sales (fully diluted). Look at its competitors whose values have gone up since this:
ReplyDeletehttp://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2013/2/21/167303-13614377149590497-Jonathan-Verenger.jpg
Arkansas PO is $18, so I'd say there's a tailwind. Trucks get better mileage with a tailwind.
DeleteREDF blowing up. Still holding my whopping 2300 shares.
ReplyDeleteUp 9.8% on two trades of 60k shares? 5x sales. Foreign stocks driving me nuts.....
DeleteAll I need is a 90% chance of a double and I'm all in.
I think REDF has the potential to run 100% at any point in time.
DeleteKCG - The gap down still hasn't filled..... It's never too late?
ReplyDeleteNLY - This one has probably bottomed and will either remain here or rise the next few months.
ReplyDeleteI'd consider adding under $14, that probably won't happen. My basis is around $13
BIDU - Out @ $87.05 with a 1/2 tank of gas, might try reentry if it trades down or something, looks to me like this one is pretty weak and I don't enjoy water boarding anymore.
ReplyDeleteYeah that one is wacky.
DeleteMBI halted news pending.
ReplyDeleteIn my experience halts are usually good news, except for Chinese stocks. Wonder if it's being bought by Berkshire?
DeleteHoly crap, I nearly bought that one on the pullback.
DeleteNo wonder AGO looked so strong today......
Deleteyeah crazy. thats one my old boss loaded up on...he had 80k shares in it. he's having one helluva run.
DeleteAGO settled with Credit Suisse for $358 million on a $4 billion market cap, so about 9%.
DeleteAssured has filed similar lawsuits against units of JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N), Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX) and Flagstar Bancorp Inc (FBC.N). It had earlier reached settlements with Bank of America (BAC.N) for $1.1 billion and Deutsche Bank (DBKGn.DE) for $165.6 million, without filing lawsuits against them.
They say they have about 45% of their lawsuits outstanding, so maybe they get another billion?
AGO - Reports today, right? That little IH&S points to over $22.66, but I think over $29 is coming really soon.
DeleteWell, maybe not $29, but considerably more than current value, possibly $29 Gotta get past $26.50 first which is no doubt coming.
Delete70 degrees in this house, 50 degrees outside, and everyone's cold. So I lit the wood stove and it's roaring now, it'll be over 80 in here soon.
ReplyDeletecall me crazy but i see a well defined bull flag in EDMC on the weekly chart. that is a direct competitor of CECO.
ReplyDeleteFD:
i bought more CECO this morning at $2.26. Avg is $2.259. Have about 8% of port in it.
EDMC - Just the recent flag by itself suggests another dollar coming, the pole is every bit of $1.
DeleteCongratulations to all holders of YRCW! You all ought to send TOF a bottle of his choice. :)
ReplyDeleteAbsuletly
DeleteCP,
ReplyDeleteAGO reports Q1 May 9th.
Thanks, yeah I see it now. Finviz, wrong again. And people pay for their data?......
DeleteCADC - Looks like these guys aren't participating in constructing the freight railway to Mongolia?
ReplyDeleteCoal - May 6 (Reuters) - "Chinese coal miners are likely to cut output more to curb losses after a flood of cheap imports and higher hydro power output hit domestic demand in the world's top producer and consumer of the fuel, miners and traders said."
ReplyDeletePAL - Looks like someone's selling at $1.12, not far off recent low....
ReplyDeleteRepeated the morning trade. UGAZ reopened @ 28.33, closed @ 28.75. Pretty good day!
ReplyDeleteSold the kids YRCW at 14.28
ReplyDeleteAnd you guys are having a GREAT day!
DeleteSold another 25% of YRCW at $14.3
ReplyDeletehold 45% of original position.
DeleteI sold 50% of my position in the 14's. Now down to 20% left.
DeleteTA - Have a look at last two flags, ~50% pullbacks
ReplyDeleteAnd on the Jan flag as well.
Okay guys, I'm beside myself!!!
BTU - Back-tested the 50SMA
ReplyDeletePAL - A move up would make me believe a bear flag has formed.
ReplyDeleteGold - It figures, doesn't it, that gold should sell off or remain flat as inflation begins to kick in?
ReplyDeleteARNA - Early signs of a failed bear flag.
ReplyDeleteALDW - Interesting, ex-div is also earnings day, with earnings in AH, LOL....
ReplyDeleteLooks like the div is 22%, too. Might be a special div, temporary phenomenon.....
DeleteOK, I sold my YRCW as well. Normally I would just hold for the long term, but since all the trader types here seem to think this is a good time to sell, I am joining in to see if I can make a better return than usual. Not my usual style, but you never get better if you don't try different things.
ReplyDeleteBB - I'm different. I had basically all of my money in it and need time to de-stress. I still think it gets to $30 to $40 next year.
Deletealrighty...sold off the rest of YRCW at $13.9 to 14.2. I'm stoked this paid off and a few of us could make money on it. But it was a wild ride and was stressful. Probably dumb and I know the longer term picture is intact but this was my biggest $$ gain ever as I had basically 100% of my money in it and I need to take a much needed break. I've been going at this straight without many breaks for the past 4 years and I just need a week or so to unwind. In the past I would just move on to the next one and end up taking a 20% hit and adding more stress so I am going to change it up here...probably as the market rips another 100 S&P points but oh well.
ReplyDeleteHave two small positions in CECO and REDF and still hold a little NOK in one account. Other than that I have a bunch in cash. Good luck fellas!
Just checked...the markets needs to get to 2,938 for me to underperform this year...yeah, it is definitely time for a break.
DeleteNOK has to be a winner, Windows can't possibly be made any worse than the PC implementation.
DeleteIf you don't believe me, just take a look at the MSFT chart.
DeleteCORN - Down, ha, ha, ha, it must've stopped raining, eh? Well, whatever. That's good for farm tractor sales and TITN is up today along with everything else under the sun aside from, of course, those things precious...
ReplyDeleteMBI - If a high PE marks a low, then what does a low PE mean for MBI, and how high is low if low is high?
ReplyDeleteWhy do we have to sell these rallies?
ReplyDeleteThe reason is b/c somewhere right now, a lone butterfly has flapped it's wings in such a way as to cause the next financial crisis that just so happens starts at tomorrow's open.
HII - Doesn't this chart look like a bull flag to you, with a $10 pole?
ReplyDeleteThere's only one naval yard ever in history as strategically important as the one located at the mouth of the mighty James river.
YRCW - $15.57 close - Wow!
ReplyDeleteTurkey - Soaring like an eagle.....
ReplyDeleteCECO - "The loss from continuing operations for the first quarter of 2013 was $14.5 million, or -$0.22 per diluted share compared to the income from continuing operations of $41.7 million, or $0.62 per diluted share, for the first quarter of 2012.
ReplyDelete# The net loss for the first quarter of 2013 included a $6.7 million ($0.10 per diluted share) loss related to the pending sale of the American InterContinental University campus in London, England which is reported in other (expense) income. The sale closed on April 1, 2013."
This nudges the earnings metric in the right direction, from a ttm loss of -$0.50/quarter, seems much better. New student and student population are down slightly more than 20%.
DeleteI liked this report on the surface. They paid down $80 million remaining in outstanding borrowings so I believe they are now debt free with $300 million in net cash (vs market cap of $160 million).
DeleteYeah, English don't need no education anyway, too bad they went that direction but now that's over maybe they've flipped to side two of the album.
DeletePAL - So the asset sale brought in $18mm, which leaves a development deficit of about $57mm.
ReplyDeleteNeed to compensate the previous dilution calculation from earlier this morning, it probably lands near the current share price.
Of course the announcement may create another panic, or not.
PAL - I believe this company makes for a prime case study for how business is conducted in the PM mining industry, good insight into how the mentality just keeps on spiraling shareholder wealth right into an empty hole in the ground.
ReplyDeleteOverseas POS internet stocks all had good days:
ReplyDeleteRENN
DANG
REDF
SIFY
Seems like some kind of rotation going on, mom and pop loaded up on div payers about to be left holding the bag?
Delete