The trader rests. Anything I say today will go over like a Sunday sermon after nailing the chick of your dreams the night before. And I thought I read something about Pz buying Absolut for everyone.
The chick of my dreams is a mermaid, does it work the same way?
Fracking Polish, I saw an SLB truck.
ALJ/ALDW - You might ask, what is that refinery out there in West Texas doing paying such a handsome dividend? Well, maybe they discovered a way to recover all the petroleum they've spilled on site over the past 20yrs.
Hey CP - One thing I'm gonna dig through tonight or when i get a chance on CECO is any real estate they might own under them there campuses. They're winding down (or as they call it "teaching out") some of the underperforming campuses in an effort to return to profitability. That instantly makes me think there could be a potential gold mind in land under those assets. All speculation of course.
port - congrats to you. it's one thing to suggest something or even buy something, but an entirely different thing to sit through the swings that YRCW had over the past 10 weeks. well done.
I wonder if CC is looking at GASS again. The setup doesn't look right for a Landry trade. Seems like the next shot would be a break out above say $12.20 or so? Here's my "above the green line" chart setup. Let's call it AbvGL. No entry per AbvGL.
GASS seems promising, I wonder though if it's an upside down cup and the handle is forming? Maybe not, more like it successfully tested trend line support.
Really hard to say what the next few days will be like, I'm an hopeless optimist leaning towards upside. ;)
GASS has me worried, looks like a gatekeeper but not such a sharp V shape. I'm watching but it needs to get above the 50 and the previous range, which is resistance.
YRCW: Another morning, another buck. This is when it pisses you off and keeps going.....
My AbvGL scan only shows one candidate for tonight - TPX.
Here are the rules 1. Should be above the green line. 2. Above 90 on SCTR 3. Money wave (Slow Stoch setup) should be less than 20 and turning up.
So on TPX you don't buy until Slow Stoch crosses 20. It's currently 18.36. If it triggers, the stop should be a smidge below the last swing low. I need to send her an email cuz I'm not sure if that would be the 44.26 from a couple of weeks ago or the low over the last couple of days. Also, I can't duplicate this chart setup in think or swim or my company paid DTN account which bugs me.
Don't know if anyone else read Hussman this week, but it appears he is becoming a bit less defensive (although it is somewhat confusing). He still thinks that this is a poor time to invest, but says as long as momentum remains positive, he won't raise the strike prices of his market puts and his puts are now about 5% below market. When he see momentum flatten, he will raise these put values.
SO, what does this mean?
I don't see this as being the case of the "last bear" turning bullish, but more a gradual recognition by one of the still many bears that the market is doing well and not as risky as perceived. This seems to correspond with my theory of a the mid-cycle shift in the bull where we go from turn-around type stocks to more the steady growers.
I guess the risk is that if a lot of the bears start acting the same way, we could see a fast and hard correction once it starts if they all start fast selling based on slowing momentum and the market starting to fail.
RSI_EMA on YRCW hit 96 this morning on the daily chart. At some point it will go down and hit 30 which is typically a buy signal. It sure is strong though. The best thing for anyone still in is a sideways trading pattern to work off the overbought reading. I think that will probably happen given how many years it was beaten down.
Mark - I'd be shocked if that happens with YRCW. I think it follows TA's lead, which by the way is crashing today. But that initial run from $4 to $8 only pulled back to $6.7 or so and then it ran hard again.
I think it retraces to maybe 12, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. A gap from 7.57 to over 16 in three sessions is a lot of strength and conviction. Just look at today. Up to 16.45 sell to 14.55, then back to mid 15's.
I think it just consolidates this big move. Maybe a TKO to 12 which I would buy.
NOK ripping today. I'll confess...I did buy a bunch yesterday at $3.39 to $3.41 right before the close. My hiatus lasted all of about 3 hours. Freaking addict. I also bought more REDF at $2.96 to $2.99 this morning.
i have no idea. i bought it just b/c it looked like it wanted to fill the gap. not sure what to do now. i kind of think they get a big pop. the Nokia Siemens JV is going to have some kind of event soon b/c Siemens wants out. Also, their phones are coming to Verizon soon.
EVERYTHING is being automated. I don't know what people will do, but automation and transports will be the only contestants left standing.
I'm setting up my coffee web page and pay pal shopping cart, it's amazing. I use Amazon prime a lot. Why go anywhere? I shop for the best price online, they ship it in two days for free. Even if it's not on Amazon I can pay using amazon or pay pal.
UPS, FedEx and the truckers (YRCW) that supply the shipping centers.
"college is “worth it” if you get into a top tier university like Stanford, or study an in-demand field like nuclear engineering at even a lower tier school."
the discussion up here is that the reason the Canadian dollar (and I would assume the Ausie as well) hasn't fallen is because we are one of the few AAA currencies in the world and, less importantly, we've been designated as a reserve currency.
The Bank of Canada is concerned about our high dollar and how it will affect manufacturing, but the AAA rating should keep it higher.
well it's an ADR so it has done this for a while now. Just added more at $3.49. Not an ideal entry...$3.25 is the best but I kind of think this is just a natural pullback after filling the gap. Could see some consolidation here heading into the 5/14 news event.
With most of these gap fills they take a little more than just one attempt to break above. I'd be patient with it unless you see something else that has a lot more upside potential.
Looks like it ain't happening today. Maybe a late day selloff? Who knows. I like that it's a very beaten down sector, they've identified cost savings that will get them back to profitability, and they twice as much net cash as the entire business is worth.
And they're in the home stretch, "I'm Winded" surging past "Comply Or Die", neck and neck with "Hoof Hearted" and "Kansas City Shuffle" in the lead by a length.
There was definitely a hint of weakness in this market today. I see a lot of red on my watch list and most of them are momo stocks. Not horrible action, though because the market appears to be picking through the winners and losers well. FIG / NLS up nicely is a perfect example.
There was a lot of stealth strength the last few days. Look at the IWM. Even today it was up .82% so maybe what we're seeing is either consolidation or rotation. I suspect consolidation of two really good days.
CC - I agree...nothing is setting off the alarm bells for me. There were some notable reversals but notable strength as well. Something to watch for but nothing alarming in my opinion.
I don't get these all time highs in the averages. I see very few stocks and sectors that are making all time highs and many that have declined in the last few months, such as AAPL. Is it a broad based increase in the small and mid caps?
Many of the stocks I follow are at or near 52 week highs. Plus, if I look at the industry ETF's, all are very close to highs with the exception being technology. Perhaps you are following too many tech stocks? Also, the miners are doing poorly, but interestingly, the US materials ETF (XLB) is at a 52 week high - must be due to chemical companies like Dupont (DD) which are doing well.
Good numbers out of ING this morning. Put a bid into add to my position, but haven't got a fill yet.
Seems like a no-brainer stock at this price. They have done a lot of work to repair their balance sheet, are restructuring to pay off debts, cutting costs, are in the better European economies (Netherlands, Belgium, Germany), dirt cheap on a P/E and P/B basis and are looking to reinstate their dividend over the next year or so which will cause a stock rerating higher.
I think they are being unfairly tarnished as a "European Financial" who will have to dilute by raising equity, but they really have already done this (like the American ones did) and have almost paid this back and are on the road to recovery.
My personal target price over the next few years is over $30 and it is at $8.80 now.
The chick of my dreams is a mermaid, does it work the same way?
ReplyDeleteFracking Polish, I saw an SLB truck.
ALJ/ALDW - You might ask, what is that refinery out there in West Texas doing paying such a handsome dividend? Well, maybe they discovered a way to recover all the petroleum they've spilled on site over the past 20yrs.
BAS is out there too.
GASS - Seems the trend may have resumed, about a 50% retrace of the move up?
ReplyDeleteFLY - Apparently Buffett recently presented some data about aircraft services growth and projections.
ReplyDeleteDamn, CP. We could have both loaded up on YRCW at the open and STILL made +40%.
ReplyDeleteDude, I'm still waiting on you to make a move. CECO might be our next chance........
DeleteTime to sharpen your bean-counters pencil.
DeleteOr, perhaps if YRCW retraces half of today's move?
DeleteWhat do ya say we put in stink bids on CECO, say around $2.20, in anticipation of someone trying to raid stops first thing tomorrow morning?
Delete$UTIL - Definitely looks like it's rolled over.
ReplyDeleteSo who's on the other side of the YRCW? Badly scorched shorts.
ReplyDeleteTire tracks.
DeleteFlat cat.
DeleteWho's this guru that jesse refers to in his latest missive- anyone we know?
ReplyDeleteYour reading comprehension is superb!
DeleteApparently he's a stiff now!
DeleteREIT's - The low down is to buy them for the dividend income, but only when they're on the down low.
ReplyDeleteOnly then, can you make out like an gendarm driving a "one gear" on the N7 autoroute.
Hey CP - One thing I'm gonna dig through tonight or when i get a chance on CECO is any real estate they might own under them there campuses. They're winding down (or as they call it "teaching out") some of the underperforming campuses in an effort to return to profitability. That instantly makes me think there could be a potential gold mind in land under those assets. All speculation of course.
ReplyDeletetof, great call on YRCW. I've never had gains like that.
ReplyDeleteport - congrats to you. it's one thing to suggest something or even buy something, but an entirely different thing to sit through the swings that YRCW had over the past 10 weeks. well done.
Deletewell, little cajones so little share positions compared to you guys.
DeleteI sold a long term hold in HUSA today with a big ol monster loss so this eases the pain a bit.
Now if we can just get BYD to double from here.
I guess we should all hide out somewhere for a day or two.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/100712145
Anonymous to US: 'We Will Wipe You Off the Cyber Map'
Wonder how we know if it's the real Anonymous?
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteEOG - "Big beat."
ReplyDeletehey, delete works. Does anyone like the basing pattern on TBT here?
ReplyDeleteLet's see if I can link this.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TBT&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p41021883652
I wonder if CC is looking at GASS again. The setup doesn't look right for a Landry trade. Seems like the next shot would be a break out above say $12.20 or so? Here's my "above the green line" chart setup. Let's call it AbvGL. No entry per AbvGL.
ReplyDeletehttp://scharts.co/16Qdnb8
GASS seems promising, I wonder though if it's an upside down cup and the handle is forming? Maybe not, more like it successfully tested trend line support.
DeleteReally hard to say what the next few days will be like, I'm an hopeless optimist leaning towards upside. ;)
GASS has me worried, looks like a gatekeeper but not such a sharp V shape. I'm watching but it needs to get above the 50 and the previous range, which is resistance.
DeleteYRCW: Another morning, another buck. This is when it pisses you off and keeps going.....
Raw industrials actually fell:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.crbtrader.com/data.asp?page=chart&sym=BVY00&name=BLS%20Raw%20Industrials&domain=crb&display_ice=1&cancelstudy=&type=LINE&studies=SMA%2813%29;&a=W
My AbvGL scan only shows one candidate for tonight - TPX.
ReplyDeleteHere are the rules
1. Should be above the green line.
2. Above 90 on SCTR
3. Money wave (Slow Stoch setup) should be less than 20 and turning up.
So on TPX you don't buy until Slow Stoch crosses 20. It's currently 18.36. If it triggers, the stop should be a smidge below the last swing low. I need to send her an email cuz I'm not sure if that would be the 44.26 from a couple of weeks ago or the low over the last couple of days. Also, I can't duplicate this chart setup in think or swim or my company paid DTN account which bugs me.
http://scharts.co/16QdG5N
Absolut for all!
ReplyDeleteTof is the man!
Nok is even working out pre market
GSJK - Earnings, the PM ask is enthusiastic
ReplyDeleteBERY - Well, it took off....
ReplyDeleteDon't know if anyone else read Hussman this week, but it appears he is becoming a bit less defensive (although it is somewhat confusing). He still thinks that this is a poor time to invest, but says as long as momentum remains positive, he won't raise the strike prices of his market puts and his puts are now about 5% below market. When he see momentum flatten, he will raise these put values.
ReplyDeleteSO, what does this mean?
I don't see this as being the case of the "last bear" turning bullish, but more a gradual recognition by one of the still many bears that the market is doing well and not as risky as perceived. This seems to correspond with my theory of a the mid-cycle shift in the bull where we go from turn-around type stocks to more the steady growers.
I guess the risk is that if a lot of the bears start acting the same way, we could see a fast and hard correction once it starts if they all start fast selling based on slowing momentum and the market starting to fail.
New highs beget new highs.
DeleteManagers comps running away, they have to get in. BUT we're over sold, so be cautious. They'll drive it down to get in.
We need to watch progress in Europe, I'm thinking.
DeleteI meant overbought....duh.
DeleteChina - Hydraulic excavator sales up 6% YOY
ReplyDeleteHFC - Turnaround miss
Miners getting whacked this morning.
ReplyDeleteWhat happened to my 'little guy in a suit' icon?
DeleteI see it. Scares the crap out of me.
DeleteYou see the icon, or you see the fact that there's a red 'X' in place of the icon?
DeleteYRCW: A stunt plane in a tail stall? Gravity wins sooner or later, but when?
ReplyDeleteBIDU - Sheesh.....
ReplyDeletePaulson down 47% YTD on Gold fund (Bloomberg);
ReplyDeleteMITK AH's today. -.07
ReplyDeleteURI - You see a lot of these charts that have been moving sideways, this one has broken to the upside.
ReplyDeleteI know no one really cares, but I also closed out YRCW yesterday. Most at 14.20- 14.40 and the last at the close. Still holding all of my GMO.
ReplyDeleteGreat trade, bro. I hope it makes up for the thorn in your side from last year- can't recall if it was MITK or something else.
DeleteWe care, WTF?
DeleteGASL - Find our entry, guys.....
ReplyDeleteI see no red X, just the androgynous suited person.
ReplyDeleteYou can't see it b/c you forgot to pay your TT subscription fee, send it to me for rapid processing.
DeleteYRCW - On the road to recovery, where do we place our skunk bids?
ReplyDeleteI think most of these parabolic moves retrace 50%, right? So maybe 10?
Delete2nd- It was MITK, and thanks. It did. This was a really big one.
RSI_EMA on YRCW hit 96 this morning on the daily chart. At some point it will go down and hit 30 which is typically a buy signal. It sure is strong though. The best thing for anyone still in is a sideways trading pattern to work off the overbought reading. I think that will probably happen given how many years it was beaten down.
DeleteMark - I'd be shocked if that happens with YRCW. I think it follows TA's lead, which by the way is crashing today. But that initial run from $4 to $8 only pulled back to $6.7 or so and then it ran hard again.
DeleteI think it retraces to maybe 12, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it. A gap from 7.57 to over 16 in three sessions is a lot of strength and conviction.
DeleteJust look at today. Up to 16.45 sell to 14.55, then back to mid 15's.
I think it just consolidates this big move. Maybe a TKO to 12 which I would buy.
I agree with this. It would take a big pullback in the market in my opinion.
DeleteNOK ripping today. I'll confess...I did buy a bunch yesterday at $3.39 to $3.41 right before the close. My hiatus lasted all of about 3 hours. Freaking addict. I also bought more REDF at $2.96 to $2.99 this morning.
ReplyDeleteI see some generic news. Is that why?
Deletei have no idea. i bought it just b/c it looked like it wanted to fill the gap. not sure what to do now. i kind of think they get a big pop. the Nokia Siemens JV is going to have some kind of event soon b/c Siemens wants out. Also, their phones are coming to Verizon soon.
Delete"not sure what to do now."
DeleteLoad up on island reversal plays?
PMT - Goes ex-div on the 14th, thus will probably gain between now and then.
ReplyDeleteNUAN - Wonder how much lower this one goes.....
ReplyDeleteAnyone holding CECO? I still have this. Did anyone listen to the CC? I'm going to have to listen to that. Contemplating adding.
ReplyDeleteFuck. Stock moved up $0.10 since I was looking at it this morning. Gonna listen to the call now and let you guys know what I hear.
DeleteI haven't listened yet.
Deleteshit, sorry for cursing...
DeleteLOL!
DeleteCanadian and Australian dollar - By definition, as these fall, commodities prices should follow, right?
ReplyDeleteDBD - Diebold makes ATM machines, right? Shouldn't banks be replacing personal services with automated alternatives?
ReplyDeleteEVERYTHING is being automated. I don't know what people will do, but automation and transports will be the only contestants left standing.
DeleteI'm setting up my coffee web page and pay pal shopping cart, it's amazing.
I use Amazon prime a lot. Why go anywhere?
I shop for the best price online, they ship it in two days for free. Even if it's not on Amazon I can pay using amazon or pay pal.
UPS, FedEx and the truckers (YRCW) that supply the shipping centers.
Exactly, all that stuff, select biotech, and financials
DeleteHome prices still rising, bank rescue program progressing.
ReplyDeleteNLS heading to double digits. Oh my.
ReplyDeleteDang, you can't score if you don't play, huh?
Delete2nd needs to get jiggy with it and start tracking these lose ends instead of f'in miners, so we don't keep missing the boat.
DeletePMT - Would've been a good entry on yesterday's weakness, for the run into earnings. Might even get a lower entry but doubtful.
ReplyDeleteFSYS - Reports tomorrow morning, these guys have been making vapor-type fuel systems for decades, propane and natty.
ReplyDeleteAdded NOK here at $3.52
ReplyDeleteSeveral stocks have slipped from today's highs.
ReplyDeleteyeah I'm seeing a bit of red on my board, especially in the high fliers.
DeleteFLY - "FLY Leasing Ltd: Recurring non-recurring end-of-lease gains still boosting EPS"
ReplyDeleteI'd of used the word "continued", to avoid contradiction.
Seems to be a constantly recurring part of the business.
DeleteREDF poked its head above the 200 DMA yesterday. NOK in clear sailing now above its key moving averages, just needs to clear $3.60.
ReplyDeleteAdded CECO at $2.39/$2.4
ReplyDeleteLooks like it's begun trending....up.
Deleteit's pretty volatile so who knows.
DeleteKWK - Tempting.... "•Quicksilver Resources posts another loss, cancels IPOat Reuters(Tue 8:22AM EDT)"
ReplyDeletePAL - I'm gonna call it a bull flag if it keeps moving down...
ReplyDeleteNuclear engineering?
ReplyDelete"college is “worth it” if you get into a top tier university like Stanford, or study an in-demand field like nuclear engineering at even a lower tier school."
CP,
ReplyDeletethe discussion up here is that the reason the Canadian dollar (and I would assume the Ausie as well) hasn't fallen is because we are one of the few AAA currencies in the world and, less importantly, we've been designated as a reserve currency.
The Bank of Canada is concerned about our high dollar and how it will affect manufacturing, but the AAA rating should keep it higher.
BB - Yes, currency stability is what I'd like to see.
DeleteOpened GDXJ @ 11.79.
ReplyDeleteOpened SLW @ 23.3x (earlier).
Opened UGAZ @ 27.4x (earlier also).
following in at 11.72
DeleteNOK - Those gaps up make me think this stock is pretty strong, someone's gaping it up to gain psychological advantage?
ReplyDeletewell it's an ADR so it has done this for a while now. Just added more at $3.49. Not an ideal entry...$3.25 is the best but I kind of think this is just a natural pullback after filling the gap. Could see some consolidation here heading into the 5/14 news event.
Deletethought about unloading my shares today at 3.5x, elected to hold. If we push up at 3.60 again and stall..... I may reconsider.
DeleteWith most of these gap fills they take a little more than just one attempt to break above. I'd be patient with it unless you see something else that has a lot more upside potential.
DeleteI am trying TOF. :) Been holding a good while now.
DeleteIf YRCW crashes to $9.60 then I'd be all for switching out...
DeleteNATI - Is this one a bull or bear flag? I'm going with bear flag.....
ReplyDeleteCECO - I expect traders are going to notice the earnings response and begin jumping on board if selling doesn't kick in soon.
ReplyDeleteLooks like it ain't happening today. Maybe a late day selloff? Who knows. I like that it's a very beaten down sector, they've identified cost savings that will get them back to profitability, and they twice as much net cash as the entire business is worth.
DeleteGoldcorp: Lowering 2013 EPS; long-term growth plans on-track
ReplyDeleteFIG - Can we conclude the next leg up has begun?
OK. Added Goldcorp @ 28.3x, and plan to add RYPMX at the close.
DeleteAnd they're in the home stretch, "I'm Winded" surging past "Comply Or Die", neck and neck with "Hoof Hearted" and "Kansas City Shuffle" in the lead by a length.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hq2kv-QQhIE
DeleteUGAZ off @ 27.28, and added to GDXJ @ 11.69...
ReplyDeleteok admit it...which one of you guys has the 816,000 share bid on NOK?
ReplyDeleteDunno, too busy contemplating that $3.55 open and $3.50 close
DeleteThere was definitely a hint of weakness in this market today. I see a lot of red on my watch list and most of them are momo stocks. Not horrible action, though because the market appears to be picking through the winners and losers well. FIG / NLS up nicely is a perfect example.
DeleteThere was a lot of stealth strength the last few days. Look at the IWM. Even today it was up .82% so maybe what we're seeing is either consolidation or rotation. I suspect consolidation of two really good days.
DeleteCC - I agree...nothing is setting off the alarm bells for me. There were some notable reversals but notable strength as well. Something to watch for but nothing alarming in my opinion.
Deleteyou know what that means then right? down 3% tomorrow.
DeleteURA - Heating up?
ReplyDelete"Bank On It", the clear winner.....
ReplyDeleteVRNG is getting wedgied.
ReplyDeleteKeeping the faith.....
ReplyDeleteALDW - Tomorrow is ex-div, a 22% advertised dividend (not sure if this is real).
ReplyDelete•Alon USA Partners Reports First Quarter Results
It's a limited partnership, so apparently it's real:
DeleteNet income for the first quarter of 2013 was $93.5 million, or $1.50 per unit, compared to $48.1 million for the same period last year.
That's $6/yr earnings if the thing doesn't blow up.....
RKUS - Ouchie!!!!
ReplyDeleteMM - Recaptured the 50SMA
ReplyDeleteInsiders still own $153mm, they've sold just shy of ~1/3 of their position.
DeleteGSJK - Lost some ground but didn't crater.
ReplyDeleteNLS - Held it's new valuation.
ReplyDeleteVE - It's hard to argue against this chart.
ReplyDeleteConsumer credit highlights: Auto's and student loans grew the largest.
ReplyDeleteMaterials were strong, that was the rotation?
ReplyDeleteINVN - Market liked the May 2nd earnings
ReplyDeleteFor what it's worth, from Peter Brandt:
ReplyDeleteThere has never been a “V” extended bottom in Gold in history. Those betting against a retest of the low are betting against history. Loads of luck.
http://peterlbrandt.com/
I was hoping to see 1500+ once, I'd like to short it.
DeleteOr maybe DUST would be a good way to go at +$1500 gold?
DeleteARII - Could be a decent entry here.
ReplyDeletePZZI - Another +7% today.
ReplyDeleteI don't get these all time highs in the averages. I see very few stocks and sectors that are making all time highs and many that have declined in the last few months, such as AAPL. Is it a broad based increase in the small and mid caps?
ReplyDeleteLook for the ratio of stocks making 52wk highs, there must be quite a few?
DeleteMany of the stocks I follow are at or near 52 week highs. Plus, if I look at the industry ETF's, all are very close to highs with the exception being technology. Perhaps you are following too many tech stocks? Also, the miners are doing poorly, but interestingly, the US materials ETF (XLB) is at a 52 week high - must be due to chemical companies like Dupont (DD) which are doing well.
DeleteARNA - Nice pop, on news.
ReplyDeleteNLS - Nearly a quadruple from where we said we'd enter.
ReplyDeleteGood numbers out of ING this morning. Put a bid into add to my position, but haven't got a fill yet.
ReplyDeleteSeems like a no-brainer stock at this price. They have done a lot of work to repair their balance sheet, are restructuring to pay off debts, cutting costs, are in the better European economies (Netherlands, Belgium, Germany), dirt cheap on a P/E and P/B basis and are looking to reinstate their dividend over the next year or so which will cause a stock rerating higher.
I think they are being unfairly tarnished as a "European Financial" who will have to dilute by raising equity, but they really have already done this (like the American ones did) and have almost paid this back and are on the road to recovery.
My personal target price over the next few years is over $30 and it is at $8.80 now.
Looks like a nice trade on the gold today 2nd. Way to call it!
ReplyDelete