Torn between half truth and victimization
Fighting back with counter attacks
It's when that rough god goes riding
And then the rough god goes gliding
There'll be nobody hiding
When that rough god comes riding on in
Trading the miners? You know what it's like.
2nd - did you carry any of these positions overnight?
ReplyDeleteThe only position I closed was UGAZ. Holding everything else + added RYPMX at the close.
DeleteSo we can probably look forward to higher NatGas prices and lower gold prices overnight. That's OK. The action in miners is so volatile it becomes a way of life.
Delete2nd - Good luck with the positions. Certainly have the potential for outsized returns.
Deleteto the upside or downside is anyone's guess!
DeleteBoy this MBI sure looks like it wants to make another run. Probably will happen on earnings which I think are after the close tomorrow.
ReplyDeleteCheck out the following article, folks:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-05-06/3-week-anniversary-precious-metals-bear-raid
I checked that data at http://www.spdrgoldshares.com/usa/historical-data/ and it shows continued plunge in the GLD holdings. I found the following explanation on the web about the change in GLD holdings:
"But when gold is falling out of favor like now, capital flows reverse. GLD shares are dumped at a quicker pace than gold’s own selloff. This differential selling pressure creates an excess supply of GLD shares. This ETF would decouple from gold to the downside if this wasn’t equalized into the metal. So GLD is forced to buy up this excess supply. It raises the cash to do this by selling some of its gold bullion."
So this means that not only the futures traders are selling heavily into this rally (based on the COT reports), but also the traders of GLD are doing the same. But why is GLD still above the April bottom? The physical buyers are picking up the slack and are actually overwhelming the "paper" sellers.
When will a REAL strong sustained rally in gold begin? When the drop in GLD holdings will stop and reverse, implying that BOTH the paper and physical markets will be buying gold.
Interesting bro. How's the new baby?
DeleteWhen you have a large position on theme song.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=fCP2-Bfhy04&feature=fvwp
evening,
ReplyDeleteStewart shows longs for DUST and SEAS today. He's long PZZI on 4/28 and long UGAZ on 4/18.
I don't understand his RULES OF ENGAGEMENT. The low for UGAZ on 4/18 was $34.20 and now it's $27.25. I assume he uses stops but I see no rules on setting them or when he get's stopped out once he shows a long position.
TPX - no buy trigger yet. The Slow stock is 16.52. It needs to increase through 20 OR increase by 6.0 over it's lowest point. SO if it goes to 10, the long trigger would be 16, from what I'm reading.
ReplyDeletehttp://scharts.co/16QdG5N
TPX is still the only stock pick showing up on my AbvGL screen.
ReplyDeleteMITK- James B. Debello - Chief Executive Officer, President, Secretary and Director...
ReplyDeleteGod, what a fucking joke. Same shit as the last 4 calls. Still repeating the same stupid studies. Analysts participation was almost nil.
ha. you're fired up!
DeleteDo your guys WFM's stink? What is that smell? Freaking BO?
ReplyDeleteA shower might help.
DeleteDUST - One could make a ton of money on this one if he bought at the right time...
ReplyDeleteOff GDXJ @ 11.95
ReplyDeletePZZI - Jesse Stine had pointed this one out months ago, not sure how he knew.
ReplyDeleteTook off 2000 NOK @ 3.58
ReplyDeleteNo! Just kidding probably a smart move. I'm holding.
DeleteLooking to save a dime here. Not ready to break out yet IMO.....we will see
DeleteSLW/GG off @ 24.0x/ 29.1x.
ReplyDeleteCECO doing a nice stair step higher.
ReplyDeleteIt sure is...., nice.
DeleteUGAZ @ 27.37...
ReplyDeleteUGAZ off @ 27.75...
DeleteNice reversal today in ANR.
ReplyDeletePAL - Wonder when this one pops 20% or more? It always does, even though management has destroyed the company.
ReplyDeleteFeels like capital flow into equities is strong and picking up, the hoax of doom and gloom was terrifically successful.
ReplyDeleteALDW - Insider ownership better than 80%
ReplyDeletePZZI - Is that an $10+ target on the flag pole? $2 length and breakout around $8, that's $10?
ReplyDeleteGSJK taking it on the chin:
ReplyDeleteTJ Schultz - RBC Capital Markets
Hey guys, good morning. I'm going to stay on Mexico. So I guess this is your largest customer, 26% of 2012 revenue. So just really want to get a feeling for what amount of this is at risk here? I mean, you mentioned that this sounds temporary, but your borrowings indicate that you require to bid on new contracts this quarter for the majority of that revenues. So has this bid process been pushed back, is it cancelled or is that still up in the air?
Ronald J. Foster - President
It's right on track for the extension that we received, take us through the end of June, and we are currently working with our Mexico team to bid those contracts. You want to add something to that, JR?
James P. Rounsavall - CFO
Just to say that you are absolutely right, TJ, and as mentioned in our Form 10-K and certainly, we are going through the process of making updates for the 10-Q as well. But at this point in time, no further comment to Ron's.
TJ Schultz - RBC Capital Markets
Okay. But I guess, how are you bidding if budget constraints are still up in the air? I mean, what's the timeframe that you expect for them to have some resolution there?
James P. Rounsavall - CFO
It's JR. The current declines in activity are based on the current budget, and not the next year's budget, which goes into effect on October 1.
Ronald J. Foster - President
The contracts will be rebid for the process that starts at, I guess, July 1, and that's when we expect to see some pickup.
TJ Schultz - RBC Capital Markets
Okay.
James P. Rounsavall - CFO
I guess I am just trying to -- I am struggling how to answer that correctly, because it is such a fluid situation. But right now the current budget that we are working under, they've said that they have had reductions and they have always spent their budgets in some of the regions, and so they are kind of catching their breath, I guess is the best way to say that, in deciding where they need to allocate their funds. One of the things that we believe very strongly is that, the production enhancement opportunities will be a stronger motivator for them to spend money on, than exploration.
TJ Schultz - RBC Capital Markets
Okay. Can you -- how aggressive have you got on the cost reductions there, if you can sort of quantify that, and then how quickly can you ramp that back up, assuming you go through this bid process successfully?
James P. Rounsavall - CFO
That's a great question TJ, its JR. The team in Mexico, absolutely on top of it and has monitored daily, the information that they are receiving from the customer, and have appropriately taken action in the short term, while making sure, and I would say fairly significant reductions in terms of staffing to the level of work presently, but while also making sure, we could bring people back on as work is provided and service call outs for oil production, as those services come back.
TJ Schultz - RBC Capital Markets
Okay. Fair enough. Thanks guys.
Well, sounds like Schultz is just playing dumb. The real subject is likely more to do with the changes being implemented in the Mexican oil industry.
DeleteGDX outperforming GDXJ today.
ReplyDeleteYou know what I think is going down today? All the highly-publicized calls to short gold/miners. So naturally any move down must be preceded by a squeeze.
DeleteGold - Well, is $1500 coming or not? I have doubts it's coming......
ReplyDeleteI bailed on NOK at $3.55. Just not getting momo here. Probably will retrace and allow a lower entry.
ReplyDeletegoing to 4 now...thanks. :)
DeleteNice day for GDXJ today. The only two red stocks on my watch list are the ones I am holding: AUMN and PNPFF. What a joke...
ReplyDeleteAUMN is doing exactly as it always does, the rebound happens instantaneously like back-breaker waves when they break, crash right onto shore.
DeleteCECO looking really good now.
ReplyDeleteJust like REDF jumped yesterday! I better just buy this thing instead of watching it.....
DeleteREDF is a total crap shoot on a prayer that momo players hop in, I'll be honest. Chart looks solid but it could break down at any point.
DeleteCECO has a lot of meat on its bone.
Where are you guys looking to enter on this one....haven't looked at it much.
DeleteCECO or REDF? I'm in CECO from $2.24 and added more at $2.34 and $2.40. My avg is $2.3X...not sure. Again, $4.50 in cash, no debt, guided to $70 million in cost savings this year (which will get them to breakeven), down 90% in 2 years and 95% from all time highs, and it is putting in a nice rounded base. Book value is $9.
Deletelooking to add a chunk.
DeleteI feel numb, not excited, that's the root of my struggle.
ReplyDelete"How's the new baby?"
ReplyDeleteThanks, Mark, the baby is doing OK. Her breathing is a bit loud, as the cartilages in her throat have not hardened sufficiently yet. The doctors said this condition should go away at about 1 year of age, when her throat expands and her cartilages harden...
My third kid had/has the same thing. Tracheal Malacia, it definitely has improved as he has aged, but still is a bit loud sometimes at 2 years of age even.
DeleteDid the doctors give you a breathing monitor to use for the first few months to make sure that his pathways do not get completely obstructed accidentally (by a bad head twist)? We were given such a monitor... Our medical diagnosis is laryngomalacia...
DeleteTracheal/larygomalacia....yep same thing. We never had a monitor and everyone asked what was wrong with him. He is fine today. Actually he is the devil! :)
DeleteThe early struggle probably helps make them that much stronger. ;)
Deletehttp://business.financialpost.com/2013/05/06/sp-500-heading-to-1900-this-year-birinyi/
ReplyDeleteHoly shit Laz. You gotta lay off the good stuff a little no?
Well, gold is still nearly $1500, double the pre-crisis price.
Delete2nd_ave -- great move buying PM miners into weakness yesterday! It seems that recently, indeed, the large moves in each direction tend to be reversed pretty quickly...
ReplyDeleteABX - Remember the note from a couple days ago about how debt exceeds sales?
ReplyDeleteSorry I didn't mention it again yesterday, in the same post as the GG analyst note......
Bought back into NOK at $3.53. I mean I guess I saved $0.02.
ReplyDeleteHEK looks strong into the close before earnings...LOL!
ReplyDeletenew post
ReplyDelete2000 NOK at 3.52
ReplyDelete1000 CECO at 2.50
at the close