Wednesday, May 8, 2013
05/08/13 Silvio!
Gold up +22/ounce! GG/ SLW up +6%/ +4%. GDX/ GDXJ +5.5%/ +5.3% (large-cap miners outperforming the juniors today). All positions closed except for RYPMX, which will be closed at end of day. Unless miners take a hit prior to the close, RYPMX should close up over +5%. I was all-in on this round, so it’s time to bring Dylan back on stage!
I can tell you fancy I can tell you plain
You give something up for everything you gain
Since every pleasure's got an edge of pain
Pay for your ticket and don't complain
Silvio silver and gold
Won't buy back the beat of a heart grown cold
Silvio I gotta go
Find out something only dead men know
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Nice man!
ReplyDeleteCongratulations, 2nd_ave! You've been waiting for such a 5% gain day...
ReplyDeleteAs for me, a perfect 0% close for AUMN and PNPFF is better than the red color they had throughout such a day...
Sold my GDXJ I followed in on yesterday early per my usual.....I guess over the years I have been trained to lock those 2 to 5% gains in fast.
ReplyDeleteNice Call 2nd!
BIDU left me in the dust along with PKX and VMW, following a bitter 2 week psychological struggle.
ReplyDeleteHappens to me all the time. I am learning to accept the win as it and nurse the woulda shoulda coulda afterword......easier said than done.
DeleteYeah, it's hard enough holding lower risk, let alone going for the home runs.
DeleteI'll get my revenge though, DUST will be my weapon of choice once gold moves back over $1500 and stalls.
DeleteS&P divided by Federal Reserve Balance Sheet:
ReplyDeletehttp://4.bp.blogspot.com/-gML-8yfOQOg/UWMdbYKUW-I/AAAAAAAAFmQ/me4aNp3fwnA/s1600/farbast1.png
Gold used to have the same relationship. Until QE3...
DeleteFSYS - "08:34AM Fuel Systems Solutions Earnings: Heres Why Investors are Buying Shares Now"
ReplyDeleteMDW - Hope you didn't blink yesterday, else you missed $1.14 Didn't come near that price today... Sounds like a strong stock, huh?
ReplyDeleteMM - Appears earnings were uninspiring.
ReplyDeleteAFFY - Impressive move.
ReplyDeleteBANC - Wow, nice week. BB owns this one, I think.
ReplyDeleteSpeak up BB, are you shy or what?
FMAR - Gained 12% on 6x volume, 35% this week.
ReplyDeleteBAS - Still creeping up.
ReplyDeleteAnother 6 tonnes of gold shed by GLD today. The physical buyers happily picked up the slack, and bought even more! Can you imagine what will happen to POG when GLD will stop shedding its gold onto the market?
ReplyDeleteDavid,
DeleteGot to look at both sides of this story - I really wonder if gold ever would have got above around $1,300 if it weren't for GLD demand constantly pulling supply out of the market the last number of years and driving the price up.
I still think most GLD holders are short term oriented. If you believe the hyper-inflation story, you want physical. If you want leverage, you want miners. The reason to buy GLD is so you can sell it easily higher, meaning a lot of the GLD holdings are future supply.
David, I tried to figure out how long it would take before GLD reached equilibrium, I found myself becoming quickly confused but here's what I came up with:
DeleteA rope over the top of a fence has the same length on each side and weighs one-third of a pound per foot. On one end hangs a monkey holding a banana, and on the other end a weight equal to the weight of the monkey. The banana weighs 2 ounces per inch. The length of the rope in feet is the same as the age of the monkey, and the weight of the monkey in ounces is as much as the age of the monkeys mother. The combined ages of the monkey and its mother are 30 years. One-half the weight of the monkey plus the weight of the banana is one-fourth the sum of the weights of the rope and the weight. The monkeys mother is one half as old as the monkey will be when it is three times as old as its mother was when she was one half as old as the monkey will be when it is as old as its mother will be when she is four times as old as the monkey was when it was twice as old as its mother was when she was one third as old as the monkey was when it was as old as its mother was when she was three times as old as the monkey was when it was one fourth as old as it is now. How long is the banana?
This riddle can only be solved with a BAC above 0.08, so it'll have to wait until Friday.
DeleteWas stuck back a couple of blogs - seemed awfully quite.
ReplyDeleteBanc did do well, but really please with the numbers out of ING this morning. Put a bid into add to my position, but haven't got a fill yet. Hopefully will get a pullback tomorrow (risk is broker upgrades and it gets away).
Seems like a no-brainer stock at this price. They have done a lot of work to repair their balance sheet, are restructuring to pay off debts, cutting costs, are in the better European economies (Netherlands, Belgium, Germany), dirt cheap on a P/E and P/B basis and are looking to reinstate their dividend over the next year or so which will cause a stock rerating higher.
I think they are being unfairly tarnished as a "European Financial" who will have to dilute by raising equity, but they really have already done this (like the American ones did) and have almost paid this back and are on the road to recovery.
My personal target price over the next few years is over $30 and it is at $8.80 now.
ING is moving up fast on volume, kinda don't see a pullback anytime near here.
DeleteHate chasing, but was willing to pay up some for the good results, but missed by a stupid penny.
DeleteCould see making this a large position for me over the next while.
I know what you mean, it's like December in reverse. Whatever drove prices down seems to have reversed but whatever it is or was, confounds me. I look at TA's chart and wonder if something suddenly changed, when does that mindset return to the broad market?
DeleteHEK - What the hell!!!
ReplyDeleteGRPN - Sweet!
TSLA - up a little....
ReplyDeleteYRCW - Chart looks kinda bullish.
ReplyDeleteGMCR - OMG, remember when we refused to buy this one?
ReplyDeleteLet me give Jesse his due. I don't think I could have held on to GDXJ as long as I did without the 'insider buying' he mentioned in his May 5 email.
ReplyDeleteKansas wheat crop looks good:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kansas.com/business/agriculture/#
evening,
ReplyDeleteTPX triggered an AbvGL entry today. I didn't see it till after the close though. It was down a bit first thing this morn and I didn't give it another look for the rest of the day. I put in an afterhours bid but it didn't get filled. I'll buy some in the morn if it opens where it closed today. Putting in a stop a smidge below 44.08.
http://scharts.co/16QdG5N
BIIB is the only stock showing up on the AbvGL screen tonight. The slow stoch is 12.11 so the trigger, as I read it, is when this trades up through 18.11.
ReplyDeleteI think the stop would be below today's low of $209.57 but I'm going to email this chart to them and ask that specific question.
http://scharts.co/18v2TNs
"Got to look at both sides of this story - I really wonder if gold ever would have got above around $1,300 if it weren't for GLD demand constantly pulling supply out of the market the last number of years and driving the price up."
ReplyDeleteI agree -- GLD most likely had a noticeable impact on the market on the way up, as it was buying up gold. But by a similar logic, it is also having a large impact now, as it is shedding gold. Thus, it is quite amazing that the price of gold is in an uptrend over the past 3 weeks...
MM - Closed nicely green, someone held it in the red all day though. Wonder if sellers have fully vented their frustration?
ReplyDeletejesse has me thinking about gdxj options. Implied vol is over 40%. I remember looking at AAPL options and not doing anything and I was interested in buying AAPL around $370. I should have at least sold A SINGLE 370 put when it was below $400.
ReplyDeleteI already have a small position in BTU which is close to flat, I think I'll just buy some gdxj for a longer term hold, and hopefully I won't sell any covered calls until it trades up to the $14-15 area. I can buy for the long term, i think i can i think i can. Ok, we read books every night. The Little Engine That Could gets a lot of open book time.
I suspect gasoline will fall or remain flat at best. The reasons are numerous, primarily speaking though, the sweet and sour spread has probably peaked and will begin to close.
ReplyDeleteORBC - Testing lower trend line.
ReplyDeleteZuckerberg endorses Keystone pipeline
ReplyDeleteRAX - Ouchie....
ReplyDeleteGold - So weak it can't even retake $1500? Surely $1500 would suck in a few extra sheep....
ReplyDeleteJPM - Overweight BAC..... Distribution?
ReplyDeleteING - Okay, bidding at $8.20 but expect to have to pay more. Even a blind squirrel gets a nut once in awhile.
ReplyDeleteTXT - LOL, they couldn't sell this one fast enough yesterday and today it's green. What's that mean, someone trying to pull a fast one?
AUMN - Making up yesterday's discrepancy?
ReplyDeleteAre we all waiting for the NatGas injection report?
ReplyDeleteGetting ready here...Harlan just farted.
DeleteMorning boyz.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1014361?source=email_rt_mc_readmore
ReplyDeleteShoulda a bought the Arkansas Best and YRCW. ABFS laughs at YRCW here. :)
how the hell could YRCW have pulled that off due to debt covenants and whatnot?
DeleteFanny Mae - Sending $59B to Treasury
ReplyDeleteYRCW/ABFS...that's wild.
ReplyDeleteAny idea how this would even be possible? I guess if the union is the debt holder then they would back it regardless of the cash crunch it would cause??? If ABFS got the same deal that YRCW got by merging then ABFS would have been hugely profitable. Now that ABFS got a deal with the union separately and is continuing to operate independently wouldn't that hurt YRCW a little?
DeleteI bet it could get done if the unions agreed. Yes, I think it does hurt YRCW as is.
DeleteMight have a nice reversal day in HEK. I just wish Cramer would shut up about it.
ReplyDeleteyeah man we're much better off in stocks that no one follows or that most people universally hate. CECO really comes to mind in this department. I really like this one.
DeleteAnyone have any insight on what would stop a company like APOL just acquiring CECO for their student base and the cash they have on hand? I would have to imagine other companies see some value in this.
Whatever happened to the glory days of 10% Natty moves? These 1% days are for pussies.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pdi_kASSsJs
DeleteAnyone else in NOK? If this breaks $3.6 I think we're golden. That event on the 14th could juice this sucker. Talk of a phablet in the works and launch on Verizon. Sentiment is pretty down on this stock.
ReplyDeleteOffed the 2000 NOK at 3.59 again
ReplyDeletePZ - I think it breaks up above it here.
DeleteI have a small position I'm holding.
DeleteI will re-enter on a close above if need be
DeleteCoals - I was thinking two days ago that there is one last drop remaining on these stocks. I think there are too many playing a potential bounce. I think those guys need to get wiped out. And when they do I think it could potentially set up a nice buying opp. That would be very painful especially in light of the big reversal day yesterday and the heavy insider buying at WLT on the 5th. I'm thinking even those insiders need to feel a little pain first. Bottom is definitely very close.
ReplyDeleteAnother idea and probably the safer move is to wait for a move above the weekly EMA moving avg. I'm looking at ANR.
The problems I see with coal are multiple, one of them is it could be a scud that crashes, or a rocket to the moon. I ask myself what are the chances I get it right?
DeleteThe be-all end-all expert said buy miners a couple years ago, see how that worked out... At this point I much prefer something like a slow-lazy river, such as TAXI, or ING, maybe TXT, or something like that. Many of these have doubled, that's all I could ever hope for, not something wild-ass that pops 200,000% in an half hour.
JO - Received a jolt.
ReplyDeleteFed's Plosser speaks at 13:15, already Lacker spoke this morning?
ReplyDeleteI had two 'easy' trades this morning that I skipped out on. Buying the opening drop in miners, and buying the drop in UGAZ. Got busy at work.
ReplyDeleteFIG sure looks like a buy on this mini pullback to old highs. Nice little dividend on this with potential to grow it pretty significantly.
ReplyDeleteNOK just doesnt want to break 3.60
ReplyDeletethere.....that ought to do it.
Deletei like it. it's a pressure cooker building up steam. the lid is gonna blow. lots of haters on the stock.
DeleteREDF / RENN / DANG - All putting in very bullish patterns.
ReplyDeleteMM - Working on a flag.
ReplyDeleteTAXI - Interesting chart, to me.
ReplyDeleteInteresting article, which might explain the continual drop in the physical gold holdings at GLD:
ReplyDeletehttp://etfdailynews.com/2013/05/09/the-death-of-the-paper-gold-scam/
Many people have maintained that those ETF's have been at the expense of the miners.
DeleteAGCO - Too bad I missed this ride for all the psychological blood and sweat BIDU gave me.
ReplyDeleteTractors are necessary for farming, I don't know where Chinese people sit concerning a fancy thingamabob when such a large amount of their income goes towards feeding themselves.
Why aren't tractors a no-brainer big floppy dick that gets the job done every time?
BIDU is chasing clouds.
HII - Have you ever been on a nuclear aircraft carrier? These guys refuel the reactors.
ReplyDeletePEIX 10,000 @ 0.288
ReplyDeleteIts what is left of a Bill Gates Investment/ IBD momo stock from 5 years ago. I think I once bought it at 30 and sold it for 54$....LOL
DeleteLooked for the old trade....couldnt find it, but I was trading it even higher based on the chart. This is a great example of what the death of a stock chart looks like.
DeleteI kinda like the idea, b/c I'm thinking this year's grain crop should be good.
DeleteTCK - Now $29.40, on it's way to $43?
ReplyDeleteSo long a little ANR, little focker jumps around.
ReplyDeleteLong ECA, 8 block trades today, 4% divy not much concern to this group. Sideways basing (potential) on weekly since Sep 11.
I think this has a move lower yet to go...
Deletewould not surprise me if it went to test lows in high 5's
DeleteDavid, best of luck with your little girls condition. I'm sure she will be just fine and grow up strong.
ReplyDeleteI have been dsitracted this week and the next few weeks as wife has above 10 medical appt's during mkt hours connected with two cataract operations.
Phyllis loves her first new eye.
Good Luck guys.
I've heard many times the same story about cataract surgery; the patient survives with greatly improved eyesight.
DeleteING - "Capital message reassuring
ReplyDeleteING Bank reported a healthy capital position, with a CT1 of 10.9% (B3 fully loaded), 0.5% ahead of our 10.4% estimate. The company announced that ING Bank will upstream €1.5bn to the holding company to reduce debt levels.
Combined with €0.5bn in announced proceeds from the US insurance IPO this should reduce holding company debt by €2bn in total, to €5bn. In our view the fact that ING Bank is upstreaming the capital should confirm that the Dutch regulator
is comfortable with ING Bank being run with a CT1 ratio of slightly above 10%.
Buy reiterated, €9.25PO
We estimate the ING Bank core operations are now trading at an implied valuation of just 5x P/E’14E and 0.6x P/BV, a discount of about 50% compared to the bank sector. Our EPS forecasts are more than 20% ahead of consensus for 2014. In our view, concerns over a slowdown in the divestment program, and asset risk are overdone. ING is on our Europe 1 list of top research ideas."
VLCCF, blink and its gone. Always amazes me how a stock can go up 6% today and down 6% tommorrow.
ReplyDeleteThis is definitely not our father's mkt.
Obviously you didn't receive the memo everyone switched to long BALT short VLCCF?
DeleteThe 15:00 pullback just prior to the impressive rally into close? Seen that once, twice or more this month.
ReplyDeleteDon't get caught without a chair......
NOK - Someone throw a bid in there to unlock those computers battling it out......
ReplyDeleteNOK rejected again....i think it goes down to 3.40 again
ReplyDeleteREDF. Got my bid chance finally at 2.91. 1000 for a starter
NOK was looking good til the market tanked at 2:30. will be interesting to see how it does into Tuesday's announcement.
DeleteTook off 500 XHB for a 10% gain over a month or so. See a dip coming for the market IMO. Gonna save 50 cent piece on it.
ReplyDeleteJeez...u guys see the /NKD and USD/JPY today? Friggin a.
ReplyDelete/NQ green today. Looking across board these stocks stick out today on a mini drop:
ReplyDeleteBALT
SNE
YRCW
BIDU
FIG
NOK
CECO
FSLR
evening,
ReplyDeleteI botched today pretty good. I wasn't around at the open, by the time I looked at TPX it had already rallied over $1.00 so I let it go. If I had bought it yesterday like I should have, my first sell target would be about $1.30 higher. This one is off the radar.
And I bought BIID at $211.28. I just got in a rush. I thought this stock had already issued a buy trigger when it hadn't. For now I have a stop in place and I'll just let it go.
Wonder why the scan didn't pick out some of today's fliers......?
DeleteCan we do that one over?
ReplyDeletePCP - Flyin' high.
ReplyDeleteI just can't see how the indices are making all time highs. So many stocks and sectors are way down from their year highs and all time peaks. But it is what it is, I guess.
ReplyDeleteYour question is quite good and I've been wondering the same thing myself.
DeleteOne potential theory is during the recession many companies used cash on hand to buy their own stock while it was dirt cheap, and retired shares.
Maybe TOF, can use his powers of financial analysis to help answer this question?
Another similar theory, but perhaps slightly more conspiratorial is that companies have been obtaining loans to buy back stock and/or otherwise make their bottom lines appear more attractive than they might otherwise be.
DeleteI would take advantage of Mark's offer for an instant analysis anytime.
DeleteCP, You offer two good theory's. ZIRP is good for companies, for now.
DeleteCPHD - How do ya like them apples?
ReplyDeleteNATI - This one's still driving me nuts.
ReplyDeleteCECO - This one's just gonna keep rising, isn't it?
ReplyDeleteillini,
ReplyDeleteWhen I look at the sector charts (XLE, XLY, etc.), they are all pretty much at 52 week highs.
Plus, I'd say about 2/3 of the individual stocks I follow are also at highs. I am mainly interested in financial stocks these days as they have the best value and upside in my opinion, so perhaps you are in different areas.
BB. 52 week highs are not a part of my conundrum. Its the high of 2000. Are CC, BAC and JPM etc, not a major part of the financial sector. They are zombie banks.
ReplyDelete"They are zombie banks."
DeleteI'm not so sure this is the case anymore, are you certain of this?
Might be too strong of a term borrowed from that other blog 5 years ago. They are backed up but I still do not trust them.
DeleteHere's an article analyzing BAC's balance sheet, I know BAC has made some fairly lucrative corporate loans, one such loan was to NOR at 11% for 65% of market cap. Might not be much profit remaining for shareholders?
Deletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/1398231-bank-of-america-deleveraging-its-way-to-record-profits
DeleteTechnically you may have a good point but it appears the pendulum has or is swinging. Consider that FED policy favors these gamblers at the expense of the savers?
DeleteFor instance, BAC will have a large loan defaulted if NOR cannot meet the terms of their loan? Some say these banks are levered to the hilt with junk, perhaps they're well positioned for an economic rebound?
I bet there are plenty of money managers buying real estate down in Florida and laughing all the way to the bank while at the same time unloading their gold onto believers whom they've proven they couldn't give a rat's arse about.
And these banks are going around squeezing corporations in all kinds of ways at their moment of weakness, vacuuming up future profits. Currently HXM is being squeezed in their cash crunch, some bank or special interest group is likely to own the company and/or a great majority of their future profits at pennies on the dollar:
DeleteThis is only one of many examples of the advantages of being a banker, you get to squeeze the little guy when he's most vulnerable:
http://us.rd.yahoo.com/finance/external/reuters/SIG=12eu2bno7/*http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/07/mexico-homex-idUSL2N0DO2PU20130507?feedType=RSS&feedName=marketsNews&rpc=43
CP - my AbvGL scan (SHOULD) pick up stocks before they move using the slow stoch setting AND the SCTR setting >90.
ReplyDeleteSCTR per Stockcharts
The StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR) - often pronounced "Scooter" - is a numerical score that ranks a stock within a group of stocks. The methodology for these rankings comes from the wisdom of John Murphy, author of many books on technical analysis and contributor to the Market Message at StockCharts.com. Stocks are assigned a score based on six key indicators, which cover different time frames. These indicator scores are then sorted and assigned a technical rank. Using SCTR tables, chartists can sort stocks according to their technical rank. This makes it easy to identify the technical leaders and laggards within a specific group. Note that leveraged and inverse ETFs are excluded because above average volatility and inverse price movements skew the results. The VIX ETF (VXX) is also excluded because it moves inverse to the S&P 500.
continued
DeleteCalculation
It takes two steps to calculate the StockCharts Technical Rank (SCTR). First, each stock is "scored" based on six different technical indicators. These six indicators can be subdivided into three groups: long-term, medium-term and short-term. The box below details these indicators, the relevant timeframe and the weightings.
Long-Term Indicators (weighting)
* Percent above/below 200-day EMA (30%)
* 125-Day Rate-of-Change (30%)
Medium-Term Indicators (weighting)
* Percent above/below 50-day EMA (15%)
* 20-day Rate-of-Change (15%)
Short-Term Indicators (weighting)
* 3-day slope of PPO-Histogram (5%)
* 14-day RSI (5%)
There's a lot more after all the above stuff so we'll leave it at that. It appears to be 100% technical.
DeleteI did get a response today from the AbvGL peeps. They didn't answer any of my questions on setting stops so I'll just continue to use one of the followint
ReplyDelete1. a smidge below the most recent swing low
2. 1.5 x 14 period ATR
man these education stocks all are very cheap. this whole sector is going to make a huge move. no one is calling a new bull market in these stocks from what i can see.
ReplyDeleteESI, DV, APOL, CECO, COCO
http://news.investors.com/investing-international-leaders/050913-655485-europe-leads-foreign-company-earnings.htm?ven=yahoocp,yahoo
ReplyDeleteillini,
ReplyDeleteI'd take a look at the industry sector charts.
Consumer Staples (XLP), Consumer Discretionary (XLY), healthcare (IYH), industrials (XLI) are all at all-time highs.
Energy (XLE) and Basic Materials (XLB) are far above 2000, but below their 2007 highs.
Financials and Technology are really the only areas below 2000. When you average it out, I think it makes sense that the overall average is at new highs.
China Commercial Vehicle Industry: April HDT sales rose 31% YoY; kicked off positive growth era
ReplyDelete