Saturday, May 11, 2013
05/11/13 Sock it to the COT
A great primer on the COT report by Geoff:
http://www.billcara.com/cara-community/gold-commitment-of-traders-report-2/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+billcara%2Fcaracommunity+%28Cara+Community+Blog+Feed%29
Here's my question. Is the COT all that?
R-E-S-P-E-C-T
Sock it to COT
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Sure, the COT has a great record.
ReplyDeleteHey, the market has a better record. Anytime someone trots out an indicator that always 'wins,' we usually find out it ain't all that.
Well, for the past few weeks, the COT report has been showing new all-time lows in non-reportable positions in silver and gold futures. So COT reports cannot be used by those whose trading horizons are less than a month. Even a few months are risky. But on a time horizon of 6 months or more, I am pretty sure the current historically negative sentiment will play itself out for at least a large rebound rally.
ReplyDeleteDavid- No doubt. I just think more pain is in store for longs before the ultimate rally. It's something to look forward to, IMO. The greater the pain exacted by the market, the greater the future gains. Prolonged agony in 2013 will almost guarantee a move to 2000+ in 2014.
DeleteIn that way, trading resembles 'real life.' We all know there is no joy without pain. It's just the way it is.
DeleteWhen I'm in pain, I look forward to euphoria. And when euphoric, unfortunately I must anticipate pain.
DeleteYou want pain? How about a laugh? Stones for $600 at HP center?
ReplyDeleteI've seen better Cal Worthington commercials.
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/05/more-clueless-stones/
Wow. In the past, he'd be sneering with a twinkle in his eye. Now, he's dead-panning and you feel like he's really sneering.
DeleteDead-panning, or bo-tox?
DeleteGold huh?
ReplyDeleteDid anyone catch the solars Friday?
SCTY (solar shitty) was on a tear. I bought at the opening gap.
CSIQ was even better. I was in at $5.85 and then had to deal with a wife medical/doctor issue. Nothing life threatening, but sucky none-the-less. Anyone ever have a obstructed salivary duct? Not fun.
At least I made multiples of the deductable.
HEK has a new CEO? wtf.
ReplyDeleteNOK has two events coming up that I am waiting on: Tuesday's Lumia launch event and news on what is going to happen with the Nokia Siemens division. I think this gets to $5 in the near future.
I was looking at the monthly chart of Gold this week and it looked a lot like the monthly S&P chart around January 2008. If that's the case, it should retest the lows and then rally to 1,530ish.
afternoon fellas,
ReplyDeleteI see tof is betting against BYD so i suppose I should sell my remaining shares on Monday. I also noticed that Stewart no longer list BYD as a long at the top of his stockcharts page so I'm guessing he takes them off the page when he closes the position. This is just a guess but that's just me the student trying to figure out what the masters (tof, stewart, and jesse) are doing. As I look at the BYD chart and the date I bot BYD which was April 22, I find that I have NO IDEA what it was that triggered stewart's buy signal. There might be some combination of indicators that signals an alert to the beginning of a parobolic curve. I may just have to send him an email after I do a bit more investigating. I got stopped out of my stewart MRIN pick.
If I put both of these trades together, and if I can sell out of my BYD on Monday at say 13.40, that will be a total portoliao return of 13% on the total amount invested in these two stocks. That's still pretty good.
Well that doesn't seem to come across correctly. It's not my total portfolio return, it's just the return on the amount I invested in BYD and MRIN.
Delete"portoliao" This must be the Houston version of an Hawaiian Luau.
DeleteLooks like Zanger uses a stop loss of $1.00. That's pretty tight.
ReplyDeleteEspecially for a high share price stock like AAPL.
DeleteUh oh:
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/article/BT-CO-20130510-712129.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
" "Before YRC begins looking for acquisition targets they should first restore our members' wage and pension contributions," Teamsters general president James P. Hoffa said in a prepared statement Friday. "
" Regardless, Mr. Hoffa also called it "unconscionable" that YRC tried to open deal negotiations with Arkansas Best management while Arkansas Best was involved in labor talks with the union. Arkansas Best announced a tentative agreement on a new contract with the Teamsters early this week, although details haven't been disclosed. "
This is definitely not good news and quite frankly the whole union thing was something I knew would rear its ugly head again and cause a wild ride. I'm going to pick my spots with this stock going forward and always keep in mind that there will be sizeable shakeouts..
http://www.truckingboards.com/forum/truckingboards/abf_yrc_buy.html
Deleteyeesh. harsh words.
How much stock do these guys own?
Delete"I bought at the opening gap."
ReplyDeleteNo you didn't, I checked the posts.
Did I post it? Nope. I didn't post anything because my wife woke up with a blocked salivary duct.
DeleteNow unless you have my username and password to my brokerage acct, which you don't, you don't know Jack.
SCTY is a service pick with a entry of 27.30. The best price of the day was 27.35 because SCTY gapped past the entry at the open.
YES, I DID. Still holding, read it and weep.
Didn't post it, didn't happen. Simple as that.
Delete