Tuesday, May 14, 2013

05/14/13 The North Korean Mining Missile

I'm waiting for a successful launch in miners.

94 comments:

  1. Did at least one of us buy SCTY at 30.xx near the open?

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    1. Also CSIQ, YRCW

      Party like it's 1999

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    2. The volume sure disappeared fast in YRCW.

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    3. yeah man it did. as long as it holds above the mid $13's, though, it's looking strong.

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  2. NOK the perennial disappointer. Still holding CECO and REDF though which offsets it. I have this feeling that NOK goes to $10 one day and leaves a lot of people in the dust. It has been putting in higher lows on the weekly/monthly charts, just needs a higher high. Trades a lot like nat gas...choppy enough to toss a lot of weak hands aside and yet its up 100% from the lows last year.

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    1. i guess i can't complain about NOK. i was fortunate enough to get it at $3.40 and it clearly ran up too fast in just one week to $3.91 yesterday.

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    2. I have been lucky enough to trade this one near perfection several times now. Gonna add back today I think.

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    3. I guess if you look at it from a bigger picture this move takes out half of the move up, it fills the gap from yesterday, and it brings it right back to the mini breakout point. That's if you're a glass half full kinda guy.

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  3. SNE is a thing of beauty man. That chart is just textbook.

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  4. ESI COCO CECO EDMC all look excellent. The educ stocks are very hated and ripe for a big move higher.

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  5. Sold CECO at 2.74 for a nice 10% in a few days. Again a reload hopefully today.

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  6. About Shit my pants to see PEIX at 4.20 this AM when I bought it at 0.28 a few days ago.

    It was a reverse split of course. When that clears in my brok acct I will be dumping it. I can't think of one single example of a stock that I have traded that reverse split and ever did anything.

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    1. Yeah, a lot of people have lost waiting for a turnaround, I guess.

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    2. Lame as hell that I cant sell this thing till tomorrow....maybe it will bounce. :)

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  7. This BYD is about as overbought as it gets which isn't surprising since I still can't get any shares to short.

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  8. TXT - Out @ $27.14, taking the 4.5% gain before it evaporates.

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    1. Which way would you guess military helicopters and business jet sales are trending?

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  9. NSPH - Stink bid at $2.85, not expecting a fill. My guess is $3.01 was the opportunity.

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    1. Did you look into the recent financing?

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    2. Wasn't aware of it, prior to or following Hitachi contract?

      Maybe I should look, or consider concentrating on something else like ING.

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    3. Or maybe better, CECO, this thing just keeps moving up.

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    4. $27mm debt announced on the 7th, looks like share price dropped a dime that day. At least someone extended a loan, 9.25% per annum.

      I should be bidding on Silicon Valley Bank, or Oxford Finance instead, LOL...

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  10. BMY - I'm still thinking about this one, would like to get it on a sell off but that doesn't seem likely at this point.

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  11. BERY - This chart looks like a lightening bolt.

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  12. FMAR - There ya go, kinda suspected that....

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  13. The question now is will the education stocks be like the solar stocks or like the dry bulk stocks? If its the former then a huge move is in the works. If it's the latter then it's time to book profits fairly soon.

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    1. Second guessing my trading strategy with CECO...Probably will rebuy today at some point

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    2. Anybodyjust seet hta drop from 2.84 to 2.77 and back in a flash....that was wierd. Now 2.80

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    3. I have about 30% of my money in CECO and 55% in NOKIA…wish it was the reverse on a day like today. I spent a lot of time looking for cheap sectors like the education sector and i can't find anything with similar price to book and price to cash levels. There's risk in this sector from a political / legal standpoint but shit all of them are absolutely decimated. The jobs market is steadily improving and high school graduation rates are near all time highs so there are some positives out there.

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    4. I support the concept of education, FWIW.

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    5. who knows how long the sector runs. i'm fairly certain a decent pullback will come soon.

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    6. Blum is still selling so most likely there will continue to be good pullbacks intraday at least. that's what makes this move higher more impressive in my opinion. you can see his sales during the day when the 50k to 100k blocks come through.

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  14. Is the hair on your back standing up yet?>

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  15. SCTY - I wanted to check today's progress and accidentally typed in SHTY as the ticker.....

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  16. DANG has been running like a mofo.

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  17. David Tepper Appaloosa Management?

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  18. I really think today is a game changer type day. There's been all this BS about the fed pulling back on stimulus and what not. The market stalls a bit then rips AGAIN! my guess is we see a mad chase to 1,700 to 1,750 which is what I think a lot of us were targeting. I think this last leg will reverse fairly hard back to the 1,600ish level, though, and then we trade sideways for 6 to 9 months.

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    1. This probably explains why many confirming indicators are running counter, just to fool those who are watching them into remaining on the sidelines.

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  19. I'm thinking it's best to slowly start pulling a little money from stocks. The market is very strong right now with loads of crap stocks continuing to just rip higher and higher day after day. I'm going to use this strength to slowly get out of my positions.

    I am always looking at the 1970's to early 80's market for a variety of reasons. The similarity is pretty interesting if you look at the 1978 to 1980 run. The market then ran about 60% from the March 1978 lows to the 1980 highs. Right now the market is now up 50% from the 2011 lows. That's a helluva move and prices in a lot of good things. I'm not saying the same will happen but after the 1980 peak stocks dropped about 30% into the 1982 lows.

    I actually think the economy is fine. I just think that a lot of good things are priced in. I just don't see how there is all that much more upside in the short term. I was thinking we would ultimately get to S&P 1,700 (at 1,646 right now) or possibly as high as 1,750. Shit we're almost there. So my plan and I started it today is to begin taking small chunks off the table, leaving some on in case we get a crazy meltup. The risk reward is just not as good as it has been for the past 4 years for the market as a whole. Obviously there are stocks that will do well regardless and I'll be looking for them.

    Anyway just wanted to share my thinking.

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    1. I agree. My explanation is not as nuanced, but anytime we have a rally like we've had there is profit taking/reduction of risk and it's best to be early to that party than left with a pumpkin, some mice and a date with a mop.

      Today was a trading day. Buy em' low, sell the rush.

      I nibbled on a very small position of SHTY at the close, but I'm down to three small positions as I expect some selling soon.

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  20. One stock that really intrigues me is CTCT. I've mentioned this one a few times and have first hand knowledge of their products. They have a huge installed customer base and they're slowly transitioning into a CRM type company. I think if they have some success in doing this the stock could really take off.

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    1. Without reading a massive google search write up....what in a nutshell do they do?

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    2. they do email marketing. if you get emails from any small to mid sized companies they most likely are using constant contact to send out mass emails.

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    3. still looking into it. their main competitor is VOCS which just got hammered and which is what got me interested in looking around at CTCT again.

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    4. So how are they immune from a similar shalacking?

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    5. that's what i'm looking into...

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  21. I have a feeling today was a distribution day, there's just no way of knowing and following my gut proves me wrong more than 60% of the time.

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    1. I felt the same.......I bought back NOK, but the trading port is mostly cash end of day.

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  22. Re the markets, I wonder if the risk is more being out of, rather than in the markets. Europe and the political mess seems to have calmed down and business is just plugging away and the market trending up. Hard to see what stops it (but, of course, it would make sense that it is something we don't see).

    Guys like Santoli are writing about the possibility that we have a solid uptrend all year with just very small pullbacks like we say in 1995. I wouldn't say it is likely, but it is certainly possible. You also have smart guys like Laszlo Birinyi calling for 1900 on the S&P this year and David Tepper on CNBC today making a pretty strong case for equities.

    I don't pay much attention to the market, just individual stocks and most of the stocks I own aren't as cheap as they were, but they certainly aren't overvalued. MET, for example, hit $42 today, but I can easily make the case it should be double this based on previous valuation metrics.

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    1. i think my decision to get a little cautious here is a function of me looking around at what the pundits were saying today, to be honest. Pretty uniform that we're in 1995 again. Makes me want to slowly exit stage left.

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    2. i haven't really paid attention to the media/cnbc for a while so maybe this has been going on for a while?

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    3. Tepper apparently was a big part of AAPL's dilemma today.

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  23. CTCT - Perhaps more people are actively texting now instead of e-mailing? Is this how VOCS got killed?

    Just an idea....

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  24. Texting on an iphone while driving through a workzone, watch out for me, I'm dangerous...

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  25. NSPH- CP, wasn't there a equity portion as well?

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    1. Not sure, the stock didn't immediately nosedive?

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  26. "I agree. My explanation is not as nuanced, but anytime we have a rally like we've had there is profit taking/reduction of risk and it's best to be early to that party than left with a pumpkin, some mice and a date with a mop. "

    CC - I agree although without the mouse :)

    This interview epitomizes my thinking:
    http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000168467

    I'm not saying we're due for a crash but I do think in the short term sentiment has gotten pretty frothy. It just seems too easy to make money right now.

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  27. Are stocks cheap? A review of the evidence:

    http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2013/05/are-stocks-cheap-a-review-of-the-evidence.html

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    1. i saw this posted in a few places today. i find it odd that the 1974 and 1982 readings were quite low and yet they marked huge turning points in the market. i don't think this is the greatest indicator.

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  28. HAHA!


    "FBN Announces Leadership Changes

    ST LOUIS, MO 5/10/2013 - Furniture Brands International (NYSE: FBN) today announced a much anticipated leadership overhaul. The company has struggled with reality in recent years, so the board of directors, in the first move that has potential to benefit shareholders, named the following officers effective June 1st. The Tooth Fairy is named President, Thomasville and Drexel Heritage. The Easter Bunny is named President, Lane and Broyhill. In a surprise move, the Lucky Charms Leprechaun is named Chief Operations Officer. Snow White is named EVP of Human Resources. The Designer Brands will be lead by Buzz Lightyear. The CFO position is being eliminated since there is no need to track money that doesn't exist. It was revealed that Willy Nelson will retain the position of VP Communications. Mr. Nelson served in that role for the past 5 years under an assumed name and is highly qualitfied for the job. The new CEO will be Santa Claus.
    In his first interview since being named the CEO-designate, Mr. Claus stated, "I'm excited to bring some real magic to Furniture Brands. My first act will be to retire our worn out company jet. I have my own fleet of reindeer and can fly myself. My second act will be to take an annual salary of $1 until this company is profitable again. My third act will be to move production to the north pole where my team of elves are up to the challenge of producing competitively priced, high quality furniture. Finally, I will develop a new fleet of fuel efficient unicorn to deliver our products to furniture retailers all over the globe."
    Mr. Claus thanked the existing board and current leadership for their service to FBN customers, employees, and shareolders. "You've given my new team a monumental opportunity. I believe we are up to the challenge!"

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    1. The sister site today announced a much anticipated leadership overhaul. The blog has struggled with reality in recent years, so the board of directors, in the first move that has the potential to benefit readers, canned the following contributors effective immediately: the Tooth Fairy, the Easter Bunny, the Lucky Charms Leprechaun!, and Snow White. The Designer Fund will be eliminated since there is no need to track money that doesn't exist. It was revealed that Willy Nelson will retain the position of VP Censorship. Mr. Nelson served in that role for the past 5 years under an assumed name and is highly effective in the position. The new CEO will be the old CEO.

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    2. Yes, and customary Hogwarts attire was made mandatory.

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  29. MM - looked good today

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    1. I'm glad you noticed that, I'd forgotten to look.

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  30. UNG - The bull flag broke to the upside today.

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  31. Following up on TOF's take on past periods, here is a piece by Carter. This is just an excerpt, its a PDF, if you guys are interested I could send to Mark where he could send to you dolls. Depends on your interest.

    Per Carter Worth Oppenheimer:

    Part 2: A look at the current market compared to past very steep market run ups.
    The S&P 500 is up 52% from the lows of October 2011 at 1075+/- to where we are now at 1635+/-. That's
    +52% in 19 months—in slightly more than a year and a half. On the pages that follow we examine the
    market in the year and half of trading leading up to:
    The market top of 1937 from which a 40% decline ensued. (An 89% correlation with the current 18-month
    advance).
    The market top of 1987 from which a 40% plunge ensued. (An 85% correlation with the current 18-month
    advance).
    The market top of 1959 from which a 15% decline ensued. (An 83% correlation with the current 18-month
    advance).
    The market top of 1973 from which a 50% decline ensued. (An 82% correlation with the current 18-month
    advance).
    The market top of 1961 from which a 28% decline ensued. (An 80% correlation with the current 18-month
    advance).
    The market top of 1929 from which a 40% plunge ensued. (A 79% correlation with the current 18-month
    advance).
    And to think… in the context of such horrible declines as those above… all we ourselves have been
    talking about week after week (all we've been arguing for) is a garden variety -6% to -9% correction…
    to keep things healthy (to counteract some of the obliviousness in the marketplace). But anyway, let's
    have a look at the periods reference above.

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    1. One thing I'm wondering though, is if commodities indexes failed to follow during those times listed above?

      http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-yw36bNoEhQI/UZLTHnhCtyI/AAAAAAAALCI/q-ZL-XDo-kU/s1600/crb+jpeg.JPG

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  32. evening,

    another bummer day. All my stock picks were up too much for me to buy BY the time I got the chance to look at them. I think I need to have everything ready to go the night before. I need a place to make notes on the net, sorta like a trader log that I can access. I'm also thinking about putting in some orders the night before with lowball bids. Having the orders in already though makes it easier to pull them up and modify them. I usually have time to look at that about an hour before the open then I can just ck things out at lunch if not sooner.

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  33. one of my picks from last night that I didn't mention was AIG breaking out above $45.00. I did have a chance to put in an order for that one but my bid was about $.30 too low.

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    1. I'd suggested AIG last year, a couple of times. Nobody had anything to say.

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  34. Only one worthy AbvGL stock tonight.

    LUV - http://scharts.co/18JLfpj

    Slow STO is 12.45 so the rule is buy when it crosses above 18.45. Hard to watch for that too. One rule question, I'm not sure if you wait till the end of the day or if you can buy during the day if it crosses. I've been buying during the day if I can catch it before the stock runs.

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    1. HEY, ARE YOU GUYS LOOKING AT ANY OF THESE CHARTS?

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    2. About half of the traders here at TT stick with trading gold and silver miners, some others like to post their trades after they've closed them.

      I really don't like buying breakouts, I prefer buying them when they're down. LUV at $9 would've been a nice trade, nearly a double.

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    3. I generally try to look at what people post, but lately I get this from bing and google search and do not know why.

      No results found for http://scharts.co/18JLfpj

      But thanks for your efforts, PORT.

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    4. T3d - It's just the LUV chart, but did you try this:

      www.scharts.co/18JLfpj

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    5. bing No results found for www.scharts.co/18JLfpj.

      goog Your search - www.scharts.co/18JLfpj - did not match any documents.

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  35. Replies
    1. And the P/E is 8, not n/a.... 8's much better than n/a, isn't it?

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    2. The FNMA 10Q is pretty strong proof of the real estate recovery, I think.

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    3. Okay, so Fannie's going to pay back their loan in a similar way that AIG did, is this correct? AIG never actually wiped out shareholder assets at some point, did they?

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  36. Port,

    re AIG, they do have some very good divisions like Chartis, and have been a well run company in the past and it is a good valuation.

    The reason I stay away is that I still wonder about the culture there and if the excessive risk-taking culture that got them into such big trouble in the financial crisis really is gone. Plus, I'm sure the regulators are monitoring them very closely and may limit their opportunities.

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  37. Going back to the market comments, I see "standard opinion" as the market should do OK the rest of the year, but first we need a pullback to get rid of some of the bullishness. But every pullback of 1% - 2% is getting bought because I think a lot of people (individuals, pension funds and hedge/mutual funds) are underinvested and looking for places to buy.

    I do think a lot of stocks have moved up a lot and are extended, so either we do pullback, or people's mindset shifts from the "worry, something bad will happen" to the "ok, things are starting to get better so I should buy". Kind of like those market cycle charts where we shift from relief to optimism. This would increased the valuation people will pay for stocks.

    So, I think it is fine to take profits here, especially in stocks that have moved, but I don't think you want to try and time this market and go all-out at this point or you may end up chasing a rising market.

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