Friday, May 17, 2013
05/17/13 Turn out the lights
So last winter's call for a launch in miners in January, then February, then March, then April was flat out wrong. Blaming a wrong call on misguided global central bankers surprises me, as it's pointless. It's certainly not wizardry, and it does nothing to stem losses. In fact, I prefer learning from the Trader Lizard, who survives (thrives, even) on the ability to change color and strategy on a dime.
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Bankers, economists, professors. They all talk a good game.
ReplyDeleteLizards, raccoons, cockroaches. They teach you how to survive.
I'm OK with bromance.
ReplyDeleteGDXJ 2nd close below it's BB...but you don't have to look back far to find more. I wonder if Jesse is still hanging on.
ReplyDeleteBeen a long time since GMO is at it's upper.
DeleteJesse is long GDXJ?
DeleteGDX/ GDXJ down -4/ -5% today and setting new 52-wk lows. The problem with taking positions here is lack of identifiable support levels. The miners are in free fall, and no one knows where it will end.
DeleteWell, at least one person claims to know where it will end, but price manipulation keeps getting in the way. Absent manipulation, his last 25 calls would have been correct.
DeleteI don't know 2nd. This was one of his posts about a week ago...
Delete@dustinrmoore @Chemistfrog But GLD is not way to play this. If gld rises 10-20%, $GDXJ rebounds 100%-200% based on historic GDX/GLD ratio
Ahem (clearing the throat), speaking of historic ratios.... Gold could return to $900 if the S&P/gold ratio were to return to historic levels? I dunno, what happens to GDXJ if gold goes to $900, will it remain flat?
DeleteTrade what you see, not what you think?
Now watch..... just to make me sound stupid, Monday morning 04:00 gold jumps over the moon......
Is that 0400 EST? I'm asking b/c I'll need to set the alarm for 1 am PST.
DeleteContinuing my Google 'virtual reunions' with people from my past.
ReplyDeleteRay Manzarek reminds me of a freshman I met during my junior year at a high school in Pittsburgh. Arun was the younger brother of a friend> a quiet, shy kid from India. My brother (who played guitar) and I dropped in at their home (apartment, actually) to jam one weekend. There was a Vox organ, two electric guitars, and Arun's older brother on drums. At one point I started playing the opening riff to 'Music's Over,' and Arun's face lit up. "Yeah, yeah! That's it!"
Several weeks later, I invited Arun to jam with some local high school musicians. I suggested we hitch, but he just started 'jogging.' Across one of Pittsburgh's bridges, then along the river until we reached our destination. When I introduced him to the guys, they looked at each other in disbelief. But then he started playing.
I just looked him up. He's now a renowned pediatric surgeon. ----in' A.
CP- I see your keeping an eye on NSPH, but from a fundamental perspective, PACB seems much stronger.
ReplyDeletePACB - I dunno, I'm VERY impressed that Hitachi has taken an interest. That is, assuming Hitachi High-Tech is actually THE Hitachi-san, which I think it is.
DeleteWhat's so impressive about PACB, I'm not making the connection?
2nd - I'm afraid I have nothing to teach you, I'm simply suggesting you pay attention to winners as opposed to losers. TOF's been throwing his ideas out there and hitting some home runs, BB has been picking winners as well. I believe in what works, go towards the light! ;)
ReplyDeleteYou know CP, that advice applies to me too! I get real gun shy sometimes.
DeleteHow lane is this. JB emailed me back about my MRIN idea a few days ago. I passed. He's up about 40%.
DeleteDang Mark, why didn't you share JB's reply? Well, at least you rode on the YRCW express.....
DeleteYeah, man. Where's the bromance?
DeleteI would have, but his first email was less than encouraging. He knows the cats that founded it, but thinks it's a BO play only. I missed his 2nd email where he took a position. Serious familial missed bromance.
DeleteIt's all good. In this case, it might have impaired the relationship.
DeleteNoah. I'm telling you, if I had held on to my shares last week it would be under $10 right now
ReplyDeleteIt'd be all the way back to $6 if I'd bought.
DeleteI just checked the other site, first time in a long time. It's kind of sad to see so few comments on a site that was really buzzing with activity not so long ago. I think "Ilya" is a rich Texan.
ReplyDeleteOnly one stock on my AbvGL scan.
ReplyDeleteTHC - it could be a double top or maybe a small cup with a handle. Who knows? I only buy when the Slow STO moves back above 20.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=THC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p68667642509
THC - What's your quick take on the debt, is it being erased?
Deleteahhh there you go asking me to do brainwork. I just brings you guys technical setups that I see. I wait for "ya" to say crap or no-crap on the fundies. Actually I'm thinking about signing up for IBD now or maybe marketsmith. I feel like I'm getting my scanning down pretty good but I'd really like to add some sort of a quantitative fundamental factor like IBD's SmartSelect rating.
DeleteWhoops, "ya" should be "yaaa" and try to get two syllables out of it. I can.
DeleteHere's another interesting note, I ran my scan looking for potential shorts using the reverse of Landry's MA 10 20 30 setup and I'm seeing a lot of utilities on it. But, many of them seem to have bounced pretty good so maybe it was a buying opp 3 business days or so ago. The 10,20,30 either bowtied or was about to bowtie but it may now be moving up again.
ReplyDeleteDTE is a good example.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DTE&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p60146727862&a=303170853
Out of my list of 21 utilities, these two look the weakest.
DeleteDUK
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=DUK&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p60146727862
EIX
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p60146727862&a=303170857
Wow, those are text book cross overs.
DeleteI just noticed you're using MA10 with EMA20 and EMA30, wondering if this MA10 was intentional or it it's supposed to be EMA10?
DeleteJNK - This one might be getting close?
Thanks
I loaned out my Landry book but that's what I remember. It was MA 10 because he wasn't so concerned with focusing on the last 2 or 3 days on the 10 day.
DeleteI have a new book to read and a new scan to try out called "FALLING KNIVES" by Dr. Samir Elias.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TBT&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p82242041665&a=303243534
My notes are on the chart. I'm still checking this one out thought. I just came across it yesterday but it feels like I've looked at a lot of stuff where PPO and ADX squeezed together and it didn't give you much more than a 2 to 4 day bounce. I really like the idea of a FALLNG KNIFE scan though.
argg, the book isn't called Falling Knives, it's called EXPLOSIVE STOCK TRADING STRATEGIES. The pattern setup is called Falling Knives.
DeleteI'm still looking for the book "Juggling Chainsaws"... ;)
DeleteNOAH - "Noah Holdings states that its policy is not to comment on unusual market activity or rumors Briefing.com"
ReplyDeleteI recall this same phenomenon occurring a couple weeks before the IMH rally ended.
Gold/silver traders wasting no time:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
That's pretty impressive... Lately, the collapse in gold/silver has been correlated with a rising $usd, but so far today the $usd is down...
DeleteWe have a date with 1250.
DeleteGold - Alrighty then...
ReplyDeleteI think it is time to venture into VXX again. I just transferred $1200 into Fidelity with the intention of buying 3 Sept $15 calls at $4. However, those bastards did not immediately register my deposit (even though they said that I will be able to place a trade immediately, like in ETrade). Hopefully, I'll be able to place that trade on Monday, before VXX takes off...
ReplyDelete"The crash is coming" - Move to the back of the plane?
ReplyDeleteTVIX - Speaking of crashes, this one has cratered....
DeleteWhy 1250? I don't see anything there.
ReplyDeleteSo is SLV going to the 16-18 area?
Delete1250 is the number I see 'forecasted' by gold bears, along with 1100, 1000, and 900. So 1250 would be the next 'target.' It's a meaningless number apart from the fact that someone is willing to put it out there. It could just as well be 1299, 1275, or 1238.
DeleteGot it. I was looking at the chart for support. Maybe it's a Fibonacci number.
Delete1260ish is a 50% fib line from 63.
Delete630..I'm looking at GLD.
DeletePlatinum to $1000? Brandt sees a possibility:
ReplyDeletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/
Bernanke speaks tomorrow morning 08:00 and then again Wednesday.
ReplyDeleteGold - How can the price fall further if everyone's expecting it?
Amari says the correction of the strong Yen is largely completed:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-05-19/amari-urges-to-boost-jgb-credibility-to-cap-yield-spike.html
6 years ago CLNE went public. HOD was 13.00. Friday's close was 13.65. That's one hell of a move.
ReplyDeleteGLD under two charts
ReplyDelete1st is MA102030 but what really matters on this chart is the MACD. It would be better to have GLD make a lower low and then turn up while the MACD makes a higher low and turns up. That would take a few days but a very bullish signal.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p60146727862
2nd is GLD under the FALLING KNIFE. No setup yet. I'm sure I'm missing something here because it looks like a setup occurred on April 24th when the PPO and ADX lines started to move apart. That wouldn't have been much of a trade.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p50247247455
I have a new job at work that's going to keep me so busy that I probably won't get to watch the market much. I read somewhere that you need to have your watchlist set up and ready to go so you don't have to spend time looking stuff up if a setup happens. Makes sense.
ReplyDeleteFor tomorrow
Long setup THC – using AbvGL scan. Slow STO = 18.87, wait for a move above 20 before entering.
Possible but not as committed short setup EC – used MA102030 Short scan. Negative bowtie in mid Feb13. Wait for rally and resumption of the trend. OR could short 100 shares with a $2.50 stop loss to keep things tight.
NBG - Wild ride these past months.
ReplyDeleteTCP - Neutral -> Buy
ReplyDeleteGMO - Management is in China, wonder why?
ReplyDeleteIs there an article?
DeleteFMD - Oh my, this never happens to me. I really was expecting some red b/c I just bought in but that doesn't seem to be the plan........
ReplyDeleteMaybe I should be adding????
CP - I think so. It all hinges on them being able to do securitizations which they have stated they could have done two quarters ago on the q4 conf call but they thought the spreads would tighten. on the q1 call they said they tightened considerably but they didn't do a securitization. It's coming soon and when it does the stock could go absolutely nuts. Trades at around 1/2 times book and book could explode if they get back into the securitization market. Also the share count has been stable since 2007 with only minimal dilution and there is no toxic financing going forward. I think they will partner with GS or someone with deep pockets on a securitization deal.
DeleteSounds like they're waiting for an end to spread contraction prior to securitizing, no?
DeleteAdded more FMD today at $1.27 and CECO at $2.89 and $2.97.
ReplyDeleteI bought puts and shorted FB on Friday because I thought the chart looked bad...looks like a retest of the $20 level is in store. The break below $25.90 puts in a lower low. I like this setup so far.
ReplyDeleteCECO - They love banging this one around, huh? Perfect stock for 2nd_ave, he thrives on daily price swings.
ReplyDeleteTakes 4->5 days to sell your home in the WDC area.
ReplyDeleteWow.
DeleteLove that the VIX is up nicely today. Being long stocks in this environment is ideal because it means people are adding protection. Ideally I'd like to see a sideways trending market for a little while.
ReplyDeleteBuying dips in CECO has been working nicely for the past week. This thing rebounds pretty quickly.
ReplyDeleteWe could have all just gone all in RSOL two days ago and called it a decade.
ReplyDeleteGermany is fighting against euro import duties on solar cells from China, maybe b/c they like selling German cars in China?
DeleteClosed out the FB puts they were up 75% and expire Friday. Still holding my shares short. I also bought a small put position in NIHD based on a similar pattern I see in that as YRCW a month or so ago. Will close them if the stock pops above $8.80.
ReplyDeleteShorted NIHD at $8.51
DeleteGMO - Richard Baker (Colonel Possum) lives in Eureka, so maybe he drove Mr. Hansen to the airport on his way to China?
ReplyDelete"My understanding is that mid-May the exclusivity agreement for Hanlong financing expires and that the General Moly management team is in China [5/15/2013 UPDATE:"
http://www.generalmoly.com/news.php?releaseid=1820314
http://eurekaminer.blogspot.com/
Huge block trade went through on FMD earlier. 831k shares.
ReplyDeleteClosed the NIHD short at breakeven and took a $90 hit on the puts. Oh well. Closed the FB short.
ReplyDeleteREDF keeps bouncing up after selling. Could really move if there's any good news in the earnings report on Wed AM. Risky trade but could have a ton of upside.
ReplyDeleteLong ANR at $7.02. Coal stocks starting to move. Not sure if sentiment has gotten low enough but I'd have to imagine the doubt surrounding today's move is fairly high given the past few months of failed moves. Just don't know if it is ready but I want at least a small piece in if it is.
ReplyDeleteWow... Seeing the huge vertical gap down last night in gold/silver, I expected to see a huge down day for the miners by the time I wake up. But instead...
ReplyDeleteIs that a double bottom on AUMN between mid-April and mid-May? The company is currently priced like it has only dirt in the ground instead of gold and silver, and that it will run through its cash soon and go out of business...
ReplyDeleteThis also looks like a perfect double bottom on GLD, using the intraday data from Google...
ReplyDeleteA lot of traders are getting excited about the reversal in Gold and Silver today. Guess what? It goes lower.
ReplyDeleteI still think Gold sees a move below 1,321 and probably high 1,200's just based on how prior parabolic moves traded after their up move ending. So I'm thinking 1,250 to 1,275 then 1,550 and then much lower lows.
DeleteAnother thing I keep thinking of is lots of traders are going to start picking tops very soon. I think this could turn into the exact opposite of the 2008 fall. The best thing to do is to wait for clear negative divergences on the weekly charts if it is the inverse of 2008/9. Could play out over several months.
ReplyDeleteDANG up 70% in 2 weeks.
ReplyDeleteBarring a calamity in the report on Wednesday I think odds are decent that REDF does the same.
Deletenew post
ReplyDeleteFMD - Now that's more like what I'm accustomed to but come on, why not $1.24 ??????
ReplyDelete