Miners set to resume their rally after shaking down the passengers. I hope it's the real deal this time, David.
As for the broad market, I'm waiting for a pullback.
TGT - Does this one always lower guidance? Industrial Machinery: ABI turns negative: "The ABI moved lower in April marking the first negative reading in nine months due to project delays and financing issues. The ABI is a leading economic indicator of US construction activity."
Hey Mark - I actually thought the REDF #'s were ok. I like the 3 quarters of sequential growth. I still think this has a big run ahead of it. The Sensex is stalling right around all time highs...it's going to bust through in a big way and when it does people will come rushing back to this stock:
FMD - I mentioned yesterday about how the securitization market for student loans is still a ways away from the 2007 levels, when their deals were oversubscribed and they didn't need to fund anything internally. However, if you think unemployment can get back to the 6% level or lower like I do then the securitization market will come roaring back at some point and FMD will be a 10 to 20 bagger. It just might take a few years.
I've got about 15% in it and I think I'm going to hold for a while. Obviously if it goes up a ton quickly then I'll have to reassess but I think FMD, CECO, WLT, REDF, NOK...all of these are good long term buys.
Highlights from Day 1 E&P Presentations ô€‚„ 8 E&Ps presented on the first day of the UBS oil & gas conference: RRC, CXO, MRO, DVN, CIE, NFX, MUR, & CLR presented today. Today’s E&P presentations focused on liquids-rich plays with oily E&Ps boasting advantaged asset portfolios and gassy E&Ps highlighting emerging liquids-rich opportunities. We provide highlights on these companies’ presentations beginning on page 2. ô€‚„ Incremental news from presenting companies: After opening an asset sale data room last week, NFX noted very high interest in its international assets; we value its international assets at $1.5 billion. CIE has initiated drilling at Lontra with results likely around September and it also expects to drill another Shenandoah appraisal well before year-end (vs. early ‘14 previously). ô€‚„ Key themes from today’s E&P presentations included: 1) E&Ps focused on developing liquids-rich assets and won’t consider increasing gas directed activity unless prices are sustained above $4.50/MMBtu; 2) material efficiency gains in shale plays continue to improve economics; 3) significant monetizations being pursued to unlock shareholder value (MRO’s AOSP sale, DVN’s midstream MLP, and MUR’s retail spinoff). ô€‚„ E&Ps are discounting $4.40/Mcf and $77/Bbl normalized gas & oil prices We favor E&
We favor E&Ps with above-average cash flow per debt-adjusted growth and attractive relative valuation. Our top E&P picks are APC, CLR, EOG, MRO, & NBL.
WLT - Guys, take a look at how this has been trading since it bottomed out last month. It is almost a spitting image of the bottom in FSLR last year. Lots of frustration for about 6 weeks or so and then BAM. REmember back then? There were zero fundamental reasons to like solar. A couple of analysts had like $8 price targets and actually suggested that FSLR could go bankrupt. Its up 400% from last year.
Remember Nat Gas? 100 years of supply, massive resources in the shales...yet nat gas is up 100+% in a year.
What's the story today on coal? Nat Gas is replacing it for both electricity and steel right? Well shit I could post a hundred articles about how coal is a huge long term buy due to foreign consumption, massive supply cuts, and increasing demand domestically. On this one I think we have to look at the charts closely and pay attention to other hated industries and how they traded coming out of a big downturn.
I can think of as many fundamental reasons to buy as to sell coal, LOL! Can't disagree concerning the chart. These companies have losses which qualify as tax credits too, the EPA had better rush to fill that gap......
T3 - I just like WLT better because it is tethered to steel production which also appears to have bottomed out. I think people will move into the steel / iron ore etc companies.
REDF - Not only is it a buy but I'm pretty sure it's the only place online where you can find a reality TV show featuring policemen fighting each other with long sticks:
I have come to the conclusion that having discipline is much harder than in the past with the way the machines whip things around. If you tend to be risk adverse or playing with your retirement money more challenging than before.
It like you have to sit there and let them f--k with you before they give you your due. Anyway sure beats breaking concrete.
i prefer taking big positions in things and the thought of getting wiped out on a moments notice after 4 years of huge gains isn't tempting to me. i'm rooting for anyone in it though.
those calls i bought in WLT that expire on Friday are still down about 50%. I put about $3,500 in it which is a big bet for me. Here's to a pop before Friday.
The red line gives the expected 10-year inflation, based on the difference between yields on 10-year Treasuries and TIPS. The bond traders don't care about gold -- they are just doing their thing...
Of course, maybe the reaction to that pullback in expected inflation was a bit exaggerated...
Well, the Fed is not buying TIPS, and so the TIPS traders can freely choose the yield spread with 10-year Treasuries to account for the expected inflation they believe in...
Light Bulb! Well of course the FED has to make a decision before Labor Day, Wall Street has to know before they shuffle off to the Jersey shore!
And don't fool yourself into thinking WS didn't know exactly what Bernanke was going to say today at least an hour beforehand, and probably prior to the open.
Too bad the bastards at Fidelity did not allow me to buy $15 VXX calls on Monday. I had to raise my strike to $16, and I just bought 3 such September VXX calls.
So if gold/silver started going down when QE3 was announced and accelerated their downfall when QE4 was announced, why are they going down now, when these programs might be getting wound down???
I guess we have to wait till Labor day before we can make any comprehensive decisions. Wall Street will receive the memo in advance, in plenty of time to front-run the announcement.
Long term inverse head & shoulders on F: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=F+Interactive#symbol=f;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
haha. if i had to guess i'd say we stall, go back to 1600 and touch the 50 DMA, then rally to 1,720 to stop out the shorts at the line in the sand of 1,700, then reverse to 1,600 and trade sideways between 1600 and 1700 for the rest of the year. Next year we test 1,300 to 1,350.
sold half my GILD at 57.45 that I bot at 54.46 last week using the AbvGL setup. Moved the stop to breakeven.
BIIB has been a pleasant surprise but it seems to have some intraday volatility. I'm not trying to do anything with the intraday because I'm sure I would sell and then not buy back in. BIIB was the one I bot early by mistake which just happened to work out this time.
Gold continues its struggle with ED. Every launch has originated in Pyongyang. If the spot price fails to close and stay above 1400 by Friday, it's likely to have a date with 1290.
I notice that my portfolio always gets knocked back down after reaching a new high of year, perhaps I should just be using this as an leading indicator.....
So we can conclude it's not about employment? .....Yes, in IMHO. It's a farce. It's all about protecting the banks as primary concern. Just as an observer. I did not catch on until late in life. I'm 72 now and know that the FED is not your friend. They are a bunch of liars or worse.
TOF- Do the REDF #'s, if true, bother you?
ReplyDeleteTGT - Does this one always lower guidance?
ReplyDeleteIndustrial Machinery: ABI turns negative:
"The ABI moved lower in April marking the first negative reading in nine months due to project delays and financing issues. The ABI is a leading economic indicator of US construction activity."
So, how can difficult weather negatively impact guidance?
DeleteEveryone is blaming the weather this Q.
DeleteThe highest exposed names to construction spending in our coverage space are
DeleteTerex, United Rentals and Caterpillar.
I guess TITN should be included as well. Maybe this report (a kind of downgrade) will lift the sector?
MDW - Not gonna participate in the miner rally, eh?
ReplyDeleteWLT - Jessee's position is larger than the insider position?
ReplyDeleteI had to read that twice.
DeleteIt's probably unsafe, to read my posts. ;)
DeleteNSPH is having another good day. Third one in a row.
ReplyDeleteNice, ride that bull! I shoulda' followed my nose on that one.....
DeleteHit resistance, but I'm confident (It's your money).
DeleteNLY/PMT - These things are trading like coal miners lately.
ReplyDeleteLumber - Time to buy?
ReplyDeleteCentral banks - Obviously pedal to the metal, but has Bernanke finished testifying yet? This strong rally could be the fake move?
ReplyDeleteYou read it here on TT way ahead of everyone else:
ReplyDelete"Chairman Bernanke's remarks remain dovish, lifting markets."
FMD - Maybe not so hot?
ReplyDelete1680 Why didn't I short that?
ReplyDeletehw's that shot workin out now?
DeleteHey Mark - I actually thought the REDF #'s were ok. I like the 3 quarters of sequential growth. I still think this has a big run ahead of it. The Sensex is stalling right around all time highs...it's going to bust through in a big way and when it does people will come rushing back to this stock:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXBOM%3ASENSEX&ei=ROScUcixO6fOiQLAUQ
FMD - I mentioned yesterday about how the securitization market for student loans is still a ways away from the 2007 levels, when their deals were oversubscribed and they didn't need to fund anything internally. However, if you think unemployment can get back to the 6% level or lower like I do then the securitization market will come roaring back at some point and FMD will be a 10 to 20 bagger. It just might take a few years.
ReplyDeleteSo hold the stock?.....that is a long time for a hack like me
DeleteI've got about 15% in it and I think I'm going to hold for a while. Obviously if it goes up a ton quickly then I'll have to reassess but I think FMD, CECO, WLT, REDF, NOK...all of these are good long term buys.
DeleteWLT insider purchases
ReplyDeletehttp://whalewisdom.com/ownership/issuer_view/wlt
They are really whipping the coals and gold around with Health care rippin.
WLT last buy at $19
WLT last buy at $19 by Tokarz
ReplyDeleteHighlights from Day 1 E&P Presentations
ReplyDeleteô€‚„ 8 E&Ps presented on the first day of the UBS oil & gas conference: RRC, CXO, MRO, DVN, CIE, NFX, MUR, & CLR presented today. Today’s
E&P presentations focused on liquids-rich plays with oily E&Ps boasting advantaged asset portfolios and gassy E&Ps highlighting emerging liquids-rich
opportunities. We provide highlights on these companies’ presentations beginning on page 2.
􀂄 Incremental news from presenting companies: After opening an asset sale data room last week, NFX noted very high interest in its international
assets; we value its international assets at $1.5 billion. CIE has initiated drilling at Lontra with results likely around September and it also expects to
drill another Shenandoah appraisal well before year-end (vs. early ‘14 previously).
ô€‚„ Key themes from today’s E&P presentations included: 1) E&Ps focused on developing liquids-rich assets and won’t consider increasing gas
directed activity unless prices are sustained above $4.50/MMBtu; 2) material efficiency gains in shale plays continue to improve economics; 3)
significant monetizations being pursued to unlock shareholder value (MRO’s AOSP sale, DVN’s midstream MLP, and MUR’s retail spinoff).
􀂄 E&Ps are discounting $4.40/Mcf and $77/Bbl normalized gas & oil prices We favor E&
We favor E&Ps with above-average cash flow per debt-adjusted growth
ReplyDeleteand attractive relative valuation. Our top E&P picks are APC, CLR, EOG, MRO, & NBL.
WLT - Guys, take a look at how this has been trading since it bottomed out last month. It is almost a spitting image of the bottom in FSLR last year. Lots of frustration for about 6 weeks or so and then BAM. REmember back then? There were zero fundamental reasons to like solar. A couple of analysts had like $8 price targets and actually suggested that FSLR could go bankrupt. Its up 400% from last year.
ReplyDeleteRemember Nat Gas? 100 years of supply, massive resources in the shales...yet nat gas is up 100+% in a year.
What's the story today on coal? Nat Gas is replacing it for both electricity and steel right? Well shit I could post a hundred articles about how coal is a huge long term buy due to foreign consumption, massive supply cuts, and increasing demand domestically. On this one I think we have to look at the charts closely and pay attention to other hated industries and how they traded coming out of a big downturn.
WLT long 19.57
DeleteI can think of as many fundamental reasons to buy as to sell coal, LOL! Can't disagree concerning the chart. These companies have losses which qualify as tax credits too, the EPA had better rush to fill that gap......
DeleteYou can always do KOL and cover them all.
DeleteT3 - I just like WLT better because it is tethered to steel production which also appears to have bottomed out. I think people will move into the steel / iron ore etc companies.
DeleteYeah man, I have been debating between CLF and WLT for a few days but CLF always seems to bite me.
DeleteGoing to keep a close eye on VALE 4.77 div for you older gents.
REDF - Not only is it a buy but I'm pretty sure it's the only place online where you can find a reality TV show featuring policemen fighting each other with long sticks:
ReplyDeletehttp://pages.rediff.com/video/195758/8619568/police-fighting
IDIX 4.32 has a nine month base/sideways chart, may be something to keep an eye on.
ReplyDeleteFMD - Well, technically a sell on a close below $1.25 but I'm gonna hold it and hope for 20% or more downside where I plan to add.
ReplyDeleteIt's because so many good stocks I've been shaken out of just prior to their jump over the moon.
Honey Badger!
Yeah, happens to me all the time. BIDU for you?
DeleteI have come to the conclusion that having discipline is much harder than in the past with the way the machines whip things around. If you tend to be risk adverse or playing with your retirement money more challenging than before.
It like you have to sit there and let them f--k with you before they give you your due. Anyway sure beats breaking concrete.
Yeah, pretty much. Sweeten the deal with a few sticks of dynamite and I might go for the concrete.
DeleteFNMA - Just hit $2 this morning.....
ReplyDeleteman i wish i had the balls to buy that i just don't know the outcome of the common stock. i'm assuming it's probably good.
Deletei prefer taking big positions in things and the thought of getting wiped out on a moments notice after 4 years of huge gains isn't tempting to me. i'm rooting for anyone in it though.
Deletethose calls i bought in WLT that expire on Friday are still down about 50%. I put about $3,500 in it which is a big bet for me. Here's to a pop before Friday.
ReplyDeleteNSPH holy shit!
ReplyDeleteHitachi is Japan's GE.......
DeleteI see SA has a pump article, so it's difficult to know if the Hitachi deal is still carrying it but SA pumping might do more harm than good.
DeleteLooks like insider participation is decent? http://finance.yahoo.com/q/mh?s=NSPH+Major+Holders
BMY - How do ya like that s**t, gonna close that gap down from the $70's?
ReplyDeleteAs much as I would like to blame the drop in gold on some conspiracy or temporary insanity, here is the real reason for its drop:
ReplyDeletehttp://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=87988&category_id=0
The red line gives the expected 10-year inflation, based on the difference between yields on 10-year Treasuries and TIPS. The bond traders don't care about gold -- they are just doing their thing...
Of course, maybe the reaction to that pullback in expected inflation was a bit exaggerated...
"The bond traders don't care about gold -- they are just doing their thing"
DeleteAre there traders/vigilantes Left?, the FED buys everything.
Well, the Fed is not buying TIPS, and so the TIPS traders can freely choose the yield spread with 10-year Treasuries to account for the expected inflation they believe in...
DeleteCentral banks must be buying back that cheap gold from those who bought from them 10 yrs ago, again today.
DeleteDavid your XCO options must be doing great.
DeleteSo much for the negative correlation between S&P and gold/silver...
ReplyDeleteYeah, I'm unconvinced there's any correlation at all. Maybe there was at one time back before elephant-owned computer psycho-algo's existed.
DeleteYep, beaming faces wipe that smile off your face with the fake move out of the gate today, just as I suspected.
ReplyDeleteTXT back under $27.83, hope you sold the rally in preparation for a reload.
Jesse $SOX indicator was bang on, huh?
Glad I lightened much of my junk yesterday
DeleteEquities retreat as Bernanke mentions a decision on QE may be in weeks (not months) and he would not rule out before Labor Day.
ReplyDeleteLight Bulb! Well of course the FED has to make a decision before Labor Day, Wall Street has to know before they shuffle off to the Jersey shore!
DeleteAnd don't fool yourself into thinking WS didn't know exactly what Bernanke was going to say today at least an hour beforehand, and probably prior to the open.
Too bad the bastards at Fidelity did not allow me to buy $15 VXX calls on Monday. I had to raise my strike to $16, and I just bought 3 such September VXX calls.
ReplyDelete"Fidelity did not allow me to buy"
DeleteThat's when you know the trade is right, when your broker gets in the way.
Good enough, now close your shorts and get long for the S&P 1720 close.
ReplyDeleteAnother tough day at the office, but someone's got to do it.
So if gold/silver started going down when QE3 was announced and accelerated their downfall when QE4 was announced, why are they going down now, when these programs might be getting wound down???
ReplyDeleteB/C central banks have finished buying gold and have to wait for $300 again in order to sell?
DeleteI'm sorry I have to kinda read the braille to figure this out b/c I'm obviously not on the insiders distribution list.
DeleteFMD - Now we know what that volume spike was three sessions back, it wasn't me taking my position.
ReplyDeleteNot much to note today...WLT is strong i guess...relatively speaking.
ReplyDeletenot much from the long side that is. clearly everyone sees the "ugly" reversal bars.
DeleteI guess we have to wait till Labor day before we can make any comprehensive decisions. Wall Street will receive the memo in advance, in plenty of time to front-run the announcement.
DeleteTrying REDF @ 2.80.
ReplyDeleteTBT AND SDS working kinda puts a hole Geoff's TLT concept for the moment.
ReplyDeleteThese are strange times and I can admit to understanding none of it.
I gues when the music is over bring back the dead.
Deleteone more
Deletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VAv6_ZebiN0
which one of you cats bought CLNT yesterday?
ReplyDeleteWhy Top Cat of course!
DeleteWhich one of you cats is buying CLNT tomorrow?
DeleteWell Well Well
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8MId-DtvZE
Added my half back of ceco @2.94
ReplyDeleteTomorrow morning gap and go, we forget all about the possibility the FED will eventually have to take away the punchbowl?
ReplyDeleteI hope so if I have any chance of those dang WLT calls being in the money!
DeleteI hear they have nightmares at the thought of the markets reaction, poor sleepless babies.
Delete"poor sleepless babies."
DeleteSounds like a guilty conscience is bothering them.
Long term inverse head & shoulders on F:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=F+Interactive#symbol=f;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Robot is still long, I wonder if it fell asleep or something?
ReplyDeletehaha. if i had to guess i'd say we stall, go back to 1600 and touch the 50 DMA, then rally to 1,720 to stop out the shorts at the line in the sand of 1,700, then reverse to 1,600 and trade sideways between 1600 and 1700 for the rest of the year. Next year we test 1,300 to 1,350.
DeleteIt's short now, from 1661
DeleteThsi sums up today's mkt nicely.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vHwKx544868
afternoon,
ReplyDeletesold half my GILD at 57.45 that I bot at 54.46 last week using the AbvGL setup. Moved the stop to breakeven.
BIIB has been a pleasant surprise but it seems to have some intraday volatility. I'm not trying to do anything with the intraday because I'm sure I would sell and then not buy back in. BIIB was the one I bot early by mistake which just happened to work out this time.
TBT is starting to dance.
Gold continues its struggle with ED. Every launch has originated in Pyongyang. If the spot price fails to close and stay above 1400 by Friday, it's likely to have a date with 1290.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
I notice that my portfolio always gets knocked back down after reaching a new high of year, perhaps I should just be using this as an leading indicator.....
ReplyDeleteRobot is updated now, went short at 1661
ReplyDeleteBernanke was asked what he would do differently if the dual mandate were eliminated and the only mandate were price stability.
ReplyDeleteBernanke's answer -- nothing.
So we can conclude it's not about employment?
UPDATE 2-U.S. House votes to force approval of Keystone pipeline
ReplyDelete14 minutes ago Thomson Reuters
So we can conclude it's not about employment? .....Yes, in IMHO. It's a farce. It's all about protecting the banks as primary concern. Just as an observer. I did not catch on until late in life. I'm 72 now and know that the FED is not your friend. They are a bunch of liars or worse.
ReplyDeleteSo you agree they're guaranteed to come out on top? Why do we even bother with investing in anything else?
DeleteLumber - Looks like a hammer
ReplyDeleteUS Dollar - Based on the charts, still the most popular global currency this month of May.
ReplyDeleteCrash alert in Japan: Nikkei futures down 1,000 from highs earlier today.
ReplyDeleteNow down less than 500, seems like a normal day in the markets.
Deletenew post
ReplyDelete