Thursday, May 23, 2013
05/23/13 Nikkei Dives -7.3%/ Yen Soars
I'll be taking profits on FXY at the open. Forex is the largest asset class in the world, with an average daily turnover of $4 trillion. Taking a counter-trend position pits one against the sharpest minds in the capital markets. I was only willing to bet 15% of the port. Based on early indications in futures, I'm probably looking at a +2% gain on the trade, or +0.3% for the port.
The relative sizes of the markets: forex > bonds >> stocks >> precious metals. When an amateur trader announces the opening of a forex/FX futures account, you're listening to a dead duck quacking.
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Phenomenal insight, 2nd! ;)
ReplyDeletePossible OGRe alert.
ReplyDeleteI was just thinking of that.
DeleteSame here.
DeleteOGRe - I don't even know what that is?
DeleteFXY off @ 96.58. On to the next trade.
ReplyDeleteWell timed bro.
DeleteTrying REDF @ 2.70
ReplyDeleteTrying a little WLT @ 18.4x...
ReplyDeleteOff @ 18.6x...
Delete----.
DeleteSPY- Stall speed???
ReplyDeleteLess than intimidating OGRe so far. Heck, even I could kick his ---.
ReplyDeleteGASS played out perfect for OGR, this is why having discipline is bs in a machine world. The opening on GASS makes no sense.
DeleteLong Gass
Wow! Great catch. Way to be frosty!
DeleteAs if there isn't enough to watch, NatGas coming up in 30 minutes.
ReplyDeleteURA - Wonder if Japan will be forced to restart their reactors?
ReplyDeleteI hate to say it, but the gold missile looks like another North Korean job.
ReplyDeleteThe bigger OGRe might be coming our way.
ReplyDeleteOGRe - Okay, I get it, Opening Gap Reversal.
ReplyDeleteCP
Deletehttp://www.davelandry.com/Education/OGREswWitchHat.pdf
verniman @verniman
Delete$ES_F: Remember statistics say that 90% of the time the overnight high or the overnight low is retested during the regular trading hours.
That guy Landry is so long winded and meandering, I couldn't follow him. Dunno why my trading vocabulary is so much different. Is he describing a dead cat bounce or what?
DeleteFor instance, where's the long entry in this sentence:
Delete"These breakdowns of the opening range are often a good time to enter a market. The market sold off fairly hard, consolidated throughout the middle of the day and then resumed its sell off
late in the day."
Perhaps he's talking about playing the bounce, which might last for an hour or two. In that case it's not something I'm interested in, that's jack-rabbit trading and I'm not gonna play that game, good thing I'm not paying for this service.....
ES_F - Looks ike we just got the gap fill at 1646.50 ...
Deletehttp://shadowtrader.net/blog/
Dude, it's called a SWING TRADE. His first book was on swing trading. It's pretty basic trading psychology. Yes, it's a day trade for an OGRe or you could just set a stop and see if it plays out.
DeleteIf you're not into making money on a daily gap then don't take it. I'm not that proud, I'll take the money.
The service isn't about OGRe's, it's about swing entries (on half a position) and long term holding (on the other half) after the swing trade entry gives you profits and near zero risk.
If it isn't your method then I strongly recommend you not do it.
To answer the question: "For instance, where's the long entry in this sentence:"
Delete"These breakdowns of the opening range are often a good time to enter a market. The market sold off fairly hard, consolidated throughout the middle of the day and then resumed its sell off late in the day."
The breakdown of the opening range is obvious. It's a gap down. This scares late comers into selling which drives the price lower and invites shorts. When the selling exhausts itself (Jesse would call this a waterfall) you enter with a stop below the low of the day. As the price rises it invites buyers and squeezes shorts driving the price higher. You sell into the higher price. Landry also suggests you not do this if you aren't experienced at it.
For S&G's I looked at the example provided. No wonder you don't understand it. It's an OGRe short, not long. You could play the bounce multi-day long into the resistance of the 'witch hat" (at 134 on the chart) which is how he describes the pattern of that bounce, then you could trade the OGRe short which is trading into the resumption of the downward trend. The charts are self explanatory. Just follow the arrows.
DeleteFMD - Seems like ask size has been consistently larger than bid size for as long as I've been watching.
ReplyDeleteNSPH - Holding up fairly well, might move up out of this congestion area if this interest remains?
ReplyDeleteGap up from $3.32 - I'll feel very compelled to buy if NSPH nears this opening gap up level. Seriously doubt it will.....
DeleteOGRe is kicking ---, which includes the miners.
ReplyDeleteYeah, the OGRe........
DeleteObama gave some king of speech, but I missed it while taking my vocabulary lesson.
ReplyDelete"Jack Rabbit" wins today:
ReplyDeleteCSIQ 7.15 - 8.15
SCTY 40.50 - still holding.
"All life is suffering" - Buddha
Right, Top Hat, Witch Broom, Dead Cat Bounce.
DeleteWhat's next, I'll likely hear all about the "jumping jack elevator" AFTER the move (DDD cup?).
That's okay, par for the course, I guess.
The second post of the day is about the OGRe.
DeleteI practically put money in your hand.
Mark and Second were on it.
"I looked at the example provided. No wonder you don't understand it. It's an OGRe short"
DeleteSee, that's my point, obviously I cannot connect with verbage which is purposely unclear, whatever happened to stating expectations up front, a purpose statement of some sort, as most worthy scientific papers are traditionally begun. Trading strikes me as a science, or maybe better called an art?
"I practically put money in your hand.
DeleteMark and Second were on it."
LOL, it took me a good twenty minutes just trying to figure out what OGRe meant, I'm still not sure if it's a long or short entry.....
Regardless of all that, I have to be honest and say I'm not interested in a 30 minute trades really, trying to keep my time horizon on the order of months or longer so I can just "set it and forget it" and spend my time doing something I can actually enjoy as opposed to being brow-beat over missing an $0.20 move here and there. I'd rather buy a "BMY" in the $40's and ride it to the $70's over several months time.
DeleteYou have asked what an OGRe is before and I have replied.
DeleteThe name explains the direction. The trade is a REVERSAL of the opening gap.
If the gap is down (against the overall upward trend), then the reversal will be long.
If the gap is up (against the overall downward trend), then the reversal will be short.
The OGRE is usually associated with some sort of news event. News events are notoriously short lived.
""All life is suffering" - Buddha"
DeleteIs this your subtle way of inflicting antagonism? If so, is that really how it's gonna be? Just wondering....... finger on the iggy button.
Forget the OGRe for the moment, I'm concerned I'm being antagonized and made fun of.
DeleteGot it?
I'm good with you using your methodology.
DeleteI'm into long term holds but my entries are swing entries. That said, I don't think the bank is going to make me give back the $10K I made before lunch. I'm still holding half of the LT position in SCTY I bought at $27.65 so I can't complain.
Better yet, you do your thing and I'll do mine, perhaps some day we can meat for drinks or something.
Delete"Forget the OGRe for the moment, I'm concerned I'm being antagonized and made fun of.
DeleteGot it?"
I think my intentions of explaining everything is perfectly clear. I'm not interested in anything but making money and I have made an honest effort to help you do the same.
Well, I'm not "suffering" but thanks for your concern.
DeleteWhat makes you think the Buddha quote is about you?
DeleteIt has nothing to do with you.
It WAS about me. You know, joking. Like some say BAD when it's good.
I generally apply the Buddha quote to those who are doing well, are very fortunate or lucky. A sarcastic joke.
I'm suffering because I was lucky enough to make a few good trades on the OGRe.
"It WAS about me."
DeleteI see. Sorry for taking offense, it wasn't perfectly clear to me. We should meet for drinks someday. ;)
YRCW: pulled back into the prior range. I'm watching to see if it resumes the upward trend. Maybe at the 10 dma.
ReplyDeleteDDD/INTC - Potential C&H's?
ReplyDeleteAll those people who hoped to time the reversal in the Yen over the past 6 months are dead now. And then 2nd_ave makes his move. Amazing, bro!
ReplyDeleteAgreed, I'm admiring the move as well. Hopefully he'll provide a loose postmortem outlining how he nailed it.
DeleteIt's proprietary. Second has an internal sentiment meter that allows him to take the counter moves. He's a real OGRe. When everyone is running out of the trade, he is running in. I've watched him do this for about 8-9 years now. I think it was 2004 when we 'met' at the sista blog.
DeleteYRCW @19.73
DeleteGlad to see GLD and SLV surging just now above their opening price and above Tuesday's highs...
ReplyDeleteNow that we lost you a TON of money....
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They could've just lowered their minimum capital qualification limit if they want avoid losing their existing customer base. So I guess maybe they're tolling for a new batch of suckers......
DeleteThat's what I was thinking.
DeleteBTW, there isn't a single thing they offer that can't be had for free elsewhere.
DeleteIn all fairness, the Taoist aspect appeals because market trading algo's are most likely tuned specifically towards exploiting weaknesses in conventional wisdom.
DeleteTXT - Well I missed the reload but maybe another chance is coming...
ReplyDeleteoff half of CECO at 3.03
ReplyDeleteEurodollar - What concerns me at this point is the H&S pattern on the Eurodollar continuing to play out, not sure if the impact has been fully priced in yet.
ReplyDeleteAside: Average metro-wide home price is ~$466k, which still seems rather low to me.
BAC - Imagine that, a bank that's green on such a crappy-cruddy day..... Surprise, surprise!
ReplyDeleteThe only question remaining now is when the regularly scheduled PM smack-down resumes.
Not sticking my neck out long thats for sure
DeleteOkay, so which one of you guys took on a short near yesterday's high's, fess up!
ReplyDeleteBMY - Wonder why the scanners and bow-ties aren't picking this one yet? Must be something wrong with it but dang if I know what it is....
ReplyDeleteYou asked so I will give you my opinion. (Since I'm curious about it).
DeleteI pulled up a short chart and then a 2 year chart.
1. It's Bristol Meyers which is a big thick stock. I doubt it has a historic volatility any higher than the overall market, which means it won't outperform the overall market except when the overall market is in a downtrend as people still need drugs, soap, toothpaste, etc. and it pays a dividend.
2. The 52 wk low is $30.64 and the 52 wk high is $47.48, so it has had a run to it's 52 wk high and looks a bit parabolic for a big thick stock. The real bowtie off the bottom was around $21. Now I'm looking at a five year chart and it's all been good and uphill but to me it looks like a lot of risk without a really good pullback.
In looking at ten years of chart it is at it's highest point and has never been higher. (47.48)
That's my honest take.
I see....it was in the 70's in the 90's. Anybody that held it that long has collected 15 years worth of dividends and may be looking to get out in this overhead section. Pretty good overhead supply starting at about $50.
DeleteOkay, maybe I'll enter when the service begins to recommend it, might not be too much longer.
DeleteDon't hold your breath, it ain't gonna happen. It fits zero criteria. Maybe as a short as it's the only time it will move fast enough.
DeleteSHTY wasn't gonna happen either, if I recall.
DeleteAlright, even though it's not gonna happen, how about I get first dibs on BMY anyway?
DeleteSPWR was the first official service pick. Then SCTY. CSIQ was on the Landry list but not a service pick, but the list is there to choose from.
DeleteThe criteria are: 1. over 200,000 shares traded a day. 2. Higher HV (historical volatility)than the market. 3. Persistent trend with a pullback. 4. Resumption of the trend. 5. No over head supply/bad memories.
BMY has a low HV and a mountain of overhead supply. It won't even make it through the screen much less make the Landry list. It could make the short list as they slide faster than they glide so volatility on the way down will be okay and there is no support until $21.
As a long it's all yours.
Okay thanks, I won't anticipate it's appearance on the Landry list.
DeleteMy only comment> It won't be a risk-free trial period. Just ask the 300,000 traders who tried it over the past 2 years.
ReplyDeleteFMD - Heading for 0.95, looks like......
ReplyDeleteI also came up with an potential 0.83 target but already forgot how I came up with it, somehow.
DeleteOpening RYPMX at the close. It just 'feels' like miners want to rally here.
ReplyDeleteBeen down so long it looks like up.
DeleteOff YRCW @20.19
ReplyDeleteTraded text book....shoulda got another 20 Cents on but th elevel two faked me out
Tvix @ 2.73
ReplyDeleteClearly, we're not at a market top.
ReplyDelete$UTIL - Really, this thing was down 14% today? Wow.....
ReplyDeleteAEP and NEE were even halted, what an #$%^&'n mess this market is.
DeleteFNMA - Another +14% gain.
ReplyDeleteGOP passes Stafford student loan bill.
ReplyDeleteEGHT is starting to dance. I remember talking about it here but it's too hard to research my old post.
ReplyDeleteStopped out of my GILD position for a small profit overall. Bot that one using AbvGL scan.
I remember you were looking at that one some time ago. Looks like it even experienced the obligatory pullback just prior to the launch. To the 50SMA, it seems.
Delete"Tvix @ 2.73"
ReplyDeletePz -- are you expecting a down day tomorrow, or is it a longer-term entry?
I remember a while ago an experienced Wall-street friend gave me a piece of advice: "Never go short without a catalyst." I would think that Bernanke's speech yesterday and the market reaction qualifies as a catalyst. If one follows this rule, then the trade is simple: short as soon as a catalyst arrives and stock drop hard, then place a stop at the previous highs. That's what I'll probably do with my VXX calls -- I'll close them if S&P rallies to a new high.
Todays rebound was to easy after the nikkei scare....we need a little more fear than today after an event like that. Its a short term bet.
DeleteRYPMX closed up +$0.06. Awesome.
ReplyDeleteYou think it bodes well for a rally tomorrow?
DeleteJust saying I'm happy I was able to reopen RYPMX at a decent price. As for a rally tomorrow, that's what I'm expecting. Why?
Delete(a) Traders are waiting for another decline to buy into. They didn't get one today. So they're still on the fence.
(b) Weak hands were probably ecstatic at being able to get out at the close with a +0.72% gain in GDX. So they're out.
(c) Nimble sellers were likely ecstatic to have gotten out at the open. So they're out.
(d) That leaves only strong hands + gamblers who took a shot at the lukewarm close.
(e) Miners have been shot down on each recent rally attempt. The 'recency effect' almost guarantees expectations of further selling on a gap up on Friday. Instead, I think miners gap up and continue up without looking back.
That's my take and I'm sticking to it, until I'm proven wrong.
I kinda have to agree at this point 2nd, from the perspective that miners have not continued selling off.
DeleteI'm not sure what happens if silver slips to $14 and gold back to $1000 or less but at least for now, it's sideways at worst.
In the meantime, the Nikkei retraces 50% of Thursday's losses at the open.
ReplyDeleteOne of my solar plays might be heating up finally.
ReplyDeleteI tried to look at something on my schwab app on my phone for GMO. I got the following screen prompt...
ReplyDelete"No information for 'GMO'. Please enter a valid symbol."
Am I screwed and don't know it?
I wonder if you used capital letters, sometimes this happens to me if I don't wait long enough for the page to finish loading it doesn't convert my lower case entry into upper case.
DeleteThat might be it! I like that a much better than the other. What solar play do you have. I must have missed it.
DeleteYou didn't miss it. I've been watching it for a long time, waiting. I sorta doubt you'll like it though.
DeleteAnyway, I've got an impression China's pretty upset with Japan so, maybe US equipment manufacturers have an advantage?
BTUI is the ticker.
Crap, the thing doesn't trade enough.
DeleteSORL is interesting again.
ASYS trades more, but I'm unfamiliar with the company.
DeleteSORL - Tempting and if I knew what was good for me I'd be considering it but my patience with Chinese companies is wafer thin these days.
Bruce is much more than just a solar play, but I don't know if the batch CVD/diffusion furnaces will participate in the 450mm silicon road map. It's gonna be hard enough trying to obtain repeatable film uniformities with a single chamber wafer process tool let alone a batch process.
Anyway, how long does it take before the spotlight turns to the overlooked?
ORBC - Could be a decent entry around this lower trend line area.
ReplyDeleteI just emailed JB about his divy play ARR. Take a look at it on a 5yr. chart.
ReplyDeleteI'm not sure looking at any of the REIT's on a chart really makes much sense to me, considering they pay out 90% of their earnings in dividends? I prefer comparing previous prices verses the dividend paid at the time, trying to guess which way the Treasury yield curve is headed, and how they're trading during the monthly raids.
DeleteWhat do you see in the chart?
BTW, I almost reentered NLY today, but thought that maybe I'd wait and see another few days more since the smack down has been particularly brutal this time around, while the unknowns have rapidly stacked up. Could be a real trend or just a brutal raid, really can't figure it out but I lean towards an elephant raid.
Deleteyo fellas! landed down in Boston. we're here for the week. I see i didn't miss much. My portfolio was down a whopping 0.3% today despite being in WLT. CECO helped a lot as it's still my largest position by far. however, i did sell 20% of the position right before we took off at I think $3.03. i used that to average down on WLT at $18.5. i'll probably come to regret that but I really like the setup for WLT and can't stop thinking about a few things:
ReplyDelete(1) why are insiders buying heavily?
(2) why are insiders at X buying heavily?
(3) why are insiders at CHK buying heavily?
(4) why did the company state on the last earnings report "
all point to (a) higher nat gas prices and/or (2) better steel demand. then i saw this article:
http://blogs.marketwatch.com/energy-ticker/2013/05/23/coal-gains-on-natural-gas-in-power-generation/
look at that bump in coal demand and the coincidental drop in nat gas. that can't be priced in these coal stocks no matter what the media is saying.
as far as investment strategies...we all have our own that work to our own personalities. me personally i prefer the several weeks to a few months holding period but my holding period is largely dependent upon either price movement (i.e., if it rips higher right away i'm out or if it drops below my mental pain threshold i'm out) or upon when the catalysts i'm waiting for have been played out. my holding period has grown a little longer over time because i've realized that the biggest moves oftentimes take a little longer. i also just prefer building positions over a week or two in stocks that i have high conviction in because about 90% of the time my position goes against me right away. i'm pretty confident that WLT is one of those.
CC - just curious but did Landry offer up YRCW as a pick or was that a drinkingtopics pick?
sorry they stated the following on the last earnings report:
Delete" Overall earnings, adjusted EBITDA and cash flows are expected to significantly improve in the second quarter compared to the first quarter. "
That one was all yours. Thank You!
Deletei think, as has been the case for a long long while, this latest dip was one that will be bought up. typically when i go on vacation i'm very reluctant to hold stocks unless i have high conviction in it/them. in this case i have fairly high conviction that the market will not collapse but more importantly i think the stocks i hold, CECO/FMD/WLT/REDF, are all in the process of bottoming out and all have huge upside potential. i can't get over the fact that no one cares about stocks. when i was on the plane today (Jetblue, which had complimentary DirecTV for all passengers) my son and i walked down the aisle on a break. i counted exactly 1 TV that had CNBC on. 1. screw the unreliable AAII surveys...i think that's the best survey you can do.
ReplyDeleteHave a great vacation bro.
DeleteOFF TVIX @ 2.78
ReplyDeleteNot enough fear to hold longer