Much has transpired over the past week. A -10% selloff in the Nikkei. The short bond trade is taking off. The broad indexes appear headed for a pullback.
When the markets begin to change character, it takes time to wrap your head around it.
David- At some point investors will rotate into cyclicals. That's when you're likely to see a sustained bid in miners. It's impossible to say when it starts, but it's certainly possible it started today.
Yeah, probably cost well over 2x more than current estimates. I like the climate responsive technology aspect, makes great sense especially for the Cupertino area climate.
"To keep consumption down, the company plans to install “climate responsive” technology. Judging from the drawings, this will include window treatments that automatically open or close to let in just the right amount of light, wind and fresh air to maintain a comfortable temperature."
Okay boys, our favorite trucker is on the list. 140 HV, the highest HV ever recommended. You've traded it so not a surprise, it's f'ing volatile. Smoke em' if you got em.
Reits are done. Bonds are done. Anything interest sensitive is done.
Right now for me it's the occasional core position, trading the other half for singles. Been a great so far in this up trending market. Not sure how long it lasts.
Brandt had pointed out an H&S pattern in the eurodollar about a month ago and said it was a sing the FED had failed, so I'm guessing those eurodollars are migrating elsewhere(and rates are rising?). Maybe the move is done or gaining steam, I don't know the current status.
Hell, I cant even locate a chart to confirm the direction.
Looks like yesterday's surge in GDXJ above the 2-week resistance line was indeed a preview of what was to come...
If I am a Big Bank trader and my boss tells me that it is time to buy a few tonnes of gold, even if for a swing trade, then I would first buy GDXJ and then, the next day, I would start moving up the price of gold with my buy orders, while watching GDXJ going along for the ride...
BACML - "Mortgage Finance Industry: Difficult May, but June could reverse trend 5/30/2013 6:46 AM
The recent weakness in the mortgage REIT sector offers investors an attractive entry point to high yielding stocks that could benefit from a reversal of the Fed's Taper Talk"
What a Difference A Year Makes UBS Coal Train In this report, we seek to update investors on fundamental developments and trends within the US coal space by analyzing production, consumption, exports, imports, railcar loadings, and barge traffic. We also discuss emerging trends and inferences for coal supply/demand balances and forecasted price levels. Coal Regains Market Share; Stockpiles Continue to Fall Coal once again appears to have continued to regain market share in March as it outpaced electric generation while natural gas underperformed electric generation for the fourth straight month. This marks a very strong open to the year after coal lost roughly 94mm tons of demand vs. 2011. Stockpiles continued to decrease roughly 4.0mm tons in March; we forecast stockpiles to move down again into April (normally a ~7mm ton build) mostly on strong generation demand. Inventory days saw a slight improvement, at roughly 74.5 days of burn. When adjusting for the abnormally warm weather and high level of fuel switching in 2012, the days of burn falls to roughly 65 days. Net exports increased 28% in March y/y. Exports increased 23% in March while imports fell 44%. Production cuts continued in April in Appalachia, down roughly 1.1% y/y, but the Interior and the West saw increases of 1.7% y/y and 2.8% y/y, respectively. This marks the end of y/y production cuts, but was largely expected as last 2012’s comps now include the impact of the severe production cuts. Overall the trend supports our improving inventory thesis especially in the PRB – ACI, CLD, and BTU all have PRB exposure.
Looks like AUMN used up all of its steam yesterday...
But PNPFF took the lead today, closing above the highest point between mid-April and mid-May double bottom levels. Such a higher close confirms that the bottom is in place and sky is the limit, right?
yo fellas. just got back from vacation a few hours ago. i still think the market is just fine so long as you focus on the out of favor cyclical stocks, education stocks, solar stocks, and truckers. basically all of the shit that was crushed over the past few years.
i bought more WLT at $18.3 and $17.3 the past few days. i now have 55% of my money in it.
i also am still holding FMD and WLT. i sold all of my CECO at $3.1 the other day and have been using that $$ to move into WLT and I used some of it to buy FMD down at $1.17 I think. i think CECO goes much higher but i think the coals will be solid plays for the next year.
by the way, i know i mentioned this before but india looks like it's on the verge of a major breakout. that is very bullish for steel and met coal stuff and for REDF. that's part of why i like those two.
A better question: why did it have to happen during the quarter when I made my first large bet on the PM sector via call options (with AUMN April $2.50 calls), which all expired worthless?
I guess it relates in the sense eurodollar RATE is libor RATE? Also, since buying the contract is equivalent to lending money, and selling the contract short is equivalent to borrowing money, if the contract is losing value it seems the lender is getting cained.
This rate also has some relationship with the maximum (huh, not minimum?) reserve requirements lenders must maintain on their eurodollar deposits.
During Obama's State Of The Union speech, he announced an aggressive schedule for implementing an US/eurozone trade agreement and the general response afterward predicted that a realignment of the european banking system with the US banking system would be necessary.
So naturally I'm trying to comprehend why Brandt chalks the H&S pattern on the 2017 eurodollar contract up to a failure of FED policy, instead of increased reserve requirements which could/would become necessary for implementing an US/EU trade agreement?
I'm out on a limb with this of course, these relationships are beyond my grasp but that's not stopping me from attempting to comprehend.
The recent selling in WLT appears overdone, especially in light of the high short percentage (24% of float) . Opening a position @ 17.48.
ReplyDeleteDavid- At some point investors will rotate into cyclicals. That's when you're likely to see a sustained bid in miners. It's impossible to say when it starts, but it's certainly possible it started today.
ReplyDeleteOk. Miners are low. I hold RBY. Thank you if if you are a long termer.
ReplyDeletePM's - Perhaps if the Japanese have been sellers, they'll begin reconsidering.
ReplyDeleteIt's hard to know which signals are real and which are false, will the Japanese resort to their reactors in favor of fossil fuels?
So if they build it then it's a short. If they call it off buy all you can.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-04-04/apple-new-campus-cost-seen-jumping-to-5-billion-tech-correct-.html
Yeah, probably cost well over 2x more than current estimates. I like the climate responsive technology aspect, makes great sense especially for the Cupertino area climate.
Delete"To keep consumption down, the company plans to install “climate responsive” technology. Judging from the drawings, this will include window treatments that automatically open or close to let in just the right amount of light, wind and fresh air to maintain a comfortable temperature."
What a pain in the ass. Thanks for asking but count me out. :) I'll stick with building crappy little mansions.
DeleteMy guess is those mansions don't have solar panels all over the roofs, but what neat/cool features do they have and who makes the crap?
DeleteROP - Trying to break to the upside?
ReplyDeleteSLM - Big jump today on news, but faded a good bit of the gain.
CB - This one still looks like a bargain to me.
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Looks like bull flag is breaking to upside?
Okay boys, our favorite trucker is on the list. 140 HV, the highest HV ever recommended. You've traded it so not a surprise, it's f'ing volatile.
ReplyDeleteSmoke em' if you got em.
Reits are done.
Bonds are done.
Anything interest sensitive is done.
What's HV?
DeleteHistoric Volatility
DeleteACI
ReplyDeletehttp://www.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/052913/will-improving-thermal-coal-markets-boost-arch-coal-aci-btu-cld-cnx.aspx
FNMA - Lil' bit o' butt crack showing there.
ReplyDeleteSRS is roaring.
ReplyDeleteIMMR - This one's been moving strong as well.
ReplyDeleteJOY - "Cuts Forecast as global miners slash spending."
ReplyDeleteOffed WLT @ an average of 17.55. On to other things.
ReplyDeleteTook the 1K profit in ARR.
ReplyDelete@5.33
DeleteCompletely out?
DeleteCramer said sell NLY, last month he said buy.
YRCW - Well, I guess everyone sees.
ReplyDeleteObviously getting my bearings is exactly what is needed. I just can't get a good take on today's action.
ReplyDeleteWall Street has done a fantastic job of scaring the hell out of me again, that's for sure.
DeleteLooks like a preset order triggered for me in NOK, back in at 3.50
ReplyDeleteWhen does TOF get back from vacation?
ReplyDeleteVZ has pulled back about 10% from its high. Looking at it again.
ReplyDeleteVZ - Good eye.
DeleteThe 3x inverse are calling me into the ally.....taking my methadone like a good boy so far.
ReplyDeletePM's sure look like they want to rip higher....
ReplyDeleteMUX up a lot from low
DeleteFMD - Looks like it's rolled over, daily BB's have tightened.
ReplyDelete90-day breakouts: CME, F and AMTD
ReplyDeleteWLT - Is this chart looking like a move to $25 is likely?
ReplyDeleteFull position. Hope so.
DeleteI'm feeling compelled to place a stink bid somewhere around $16 just in case a shakeout comes that leads into a rebound to $25.
Deletejust lightened it a bit. 16 is possible for sure
DeleteAMTD - Wow, that's some insider ownership, huh?
ReplyDeleteRIO - Three year H&S, target $20 Left shoulder early 2010
ReplyDeleteEMC - Buy, aggressive capital deployment.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't that also be positive for VMW, or has the relationship become shareholder friendless?
Off yesterdays half position of WLT at 18.02
ReplyDeleteRight now for me it's the occasional core position, trading the other half for singles. Been a great so far in this up trending market. Not sure how long it lasts.
DeleteMET coal and Iron ore oversupply. Just sounds ridiculous, like WTIC was in oversupply during the financial crash.
ReplyDeleteThe word temporary is rarely used when a stock is pronounced dead, is it?
BTU - Holy crap.... what a brain screw
ReplyDeleteEurodollar - Nobody ever discusses the eurodollar, WTF not?
ReplyDeleteSVM - Definitely outside the descending channel.
ReplyDeleteBTU@20.23
ReplyDeleteCarl Icon is a tool....why do the lemmings flock?
Deleteoff 20.38. Thought we'd get a quicker, more violent rebound off that down spike
Delete"Eurodollar - Nobody ever discusses the eurodollar, WTF not?"
ReplyDeleteI have no clue about its significance. Why don't you take the lead there, CP, and enlighten us as to WTF is happening?
Brandt had pointed out an H&S pattern in the eurodollar about a month ago and said it was a sing the FED had failed, so I'm guessing those eurodollars are migrating elsewhere(and rates are rising?). Maybe the move is done or gaining steam, I don't know the current status.
DeleteHell, I cant even locate a chart to confirm the direction.
Looks like yesterday's surge in GDXJ above the 2-week resistance line was indeed a preview of what was to come...
ReplyDeleteIf I am a Big Bank trader and my boss tells me that it is time to buy a few tonnes of gold, even if for a swing trade, then I would first buy GDXJ and then, the next day, I would start moving up the price of gold with my buy orders, while watching GDXJ going along for the ride...
BTU - GS upgraded?
ReplyDeleteSSG - Nice ski slope.
ReplyDeleteBACML - "Mortgage Finance Industry: Difficult May, but June could reverse trend
ReplyDelete5/30/2013 6:46 AM
The recent weakness in the mortgage REIT sector offers investors an attractive entry point to high yielding stocks that could benefit from a reversal of the Fed's Taper Talk"
I'm not sure why this analyst says this, I was thinking that a steeper rate curve would help support margins.
DeletePerhaps elimination of the mortgage deduction would have more of an impact than anything aside from short rates rising to flatten the curve.
VHS sold
ReplyDeleteWhat a Difference A Year Makes
ReplyDelete UBS Coal Train In this report, we seek to update investors on fundamental developments and trends within the US coal space by analyzing
production, consumption, exports, imports, railcar loadings, and barge traffic. We also discuss emerging trends and inferences for coal supply/demand
balances and forecasted price levels.
Coal Regains Market Share; Stockpiles Continue to Fall Coal once again appears to have continued to regain market share in March as it
outpaced electric generation while natural gas underperformed electric generation for the fourth straight month. This marks a very strong open to the
year after coal lost roughly 94mm tons of demand vs. 2011. Stockpiles continued to decrease roughly 4.0mm tons in March; we forecast stockpiles to
move down again into April (normally a ~7mm ton build) mostly on strong generation demand. Inventory days saw a slight improvement, at roughly
74.5 days of burn. When adjusting for the abnormally warm weather and high level of fuel switching in 2012, the days of burn falls to roughly 65 days.
Net exports increased 28% in March y/y. Exports increased 23% in March while imports fell 44%. Production cuts continued in April in Appalachia,
down roughly 1.1% y/y, but the Interior and the West saw increases of 1.7% y/y and 2.8% y/y, respectively. This marks the end of y/y production cuts,
but was largely expected as last 2012’s comps now include the impact of the severe production cuts. Overall the trend supports our improving
inventory thesis especially in the PRB – ACI, CLD, and BTU all have PRB exposure.
Ha, maybe it makes more sense to burn natty when the economy is slow but call in the coal when we actually need electric power?
DeleteCLD - Okay, looks like PRB becomes competitive with natty as natty goes above $4, and CLD is one of the best PRB producers.
DeleteLooks like AUMN used up all of its steam yesterday...
ReplyDeleteBut PNPFF took the lead today, closing above the highest point between mid-April and mid-May double bottom levels. Such a higher close confirms that the bottom is in place and sky is the limit, right?
yo fellas. just got back from vacation a few hours ago. i still think the market is just fine so long as you focus on the out of favor cyclical stocks, education stocks, solar stocks, and truckers. basically all of the shit that was crushed over the past few years.
ReplyDeletei bought more WLT at $18.3 and $17.3 the past few days. i now have 55% of my money in it.
i also am still holding FMD and WLT. i sold all of my CECO at $3.1 the other day and have been using that $$ to move into WLT and I used some of it to buy FMD down at $1.17 I think. i think CECO goes much higher but i think the coals will be solid plays for the next year.
CECO and COCO are putting in very bullish patterns by the way
Deleteby the way, i know i mentioned this before but india looks like it's on the verge of a major breakout. that is very bullish for steel and met coal stuff and for REDF. that's part of why i like those two.
ReplyDeleteThe latest Hulbert gold sentiment chart is given in this article:
ReplyDeletehttp://etfdailynews.com/2013/05/30/5-signs-of-an-imminent-gold-silver-price-rally/
as you might expect, the gold sentiment during the April crash was off the chart, much lower than anything seen in 2008. How did we ever get here???
A better question: why did it have to happen during the quarter when I made my first large bet on the PM sector via call options (with AUMN April $2.50 calls), which all expired worthless?
DeleteEurodollar -- Isn't it LIBOR???
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar
http://us.practicallaw.com/4-382-3446
On StockCharts: $LIBOR , $LIBOR3
"Eurodollar -- Isn't it LIBOR???"
DeleteI guess it relates in the sense eurodollar RATE is libor RATE? Also, since buying the contract is equivalent to lending money, and selling the contract short is equivalent to borrowing money, if the contract is losing value it seems the lender is getting cained.
This rate also has some relationship with the maximum (huh, not minimum?) reserve requirements lenders must maintain on their eurodollar deposits.
During Obama's State Of The Union speech, he announced an aggressive schedule for implementing an US/eurozone trade agreement and the general response afterward predicted that a realignment of the european banking system with the US banking system would be necessary.
So naturally I'm trying to comprehend why Brandt chalks the H&S pattern on the 2017 eurodollar contract up to a failure of FED policy, instead of increased reserve requirements which could/would become necessary for implementing an US/EU trade agreement?
I'm out on a limb with this of course, these relationships are beyond my grasp but that's not stopping me from attempting to comprehend.
Welcome back TOF.
ReplyDeleteadded half position back into WLT at close yesterday @17.57
ReplyDelete