Thursday, May 30, 2013

05/30/13 The Landry Playbook

Landry's opening comments this morning: The indices sold off fairly hard on Wednesday. They did manage to recover from their worst levels but they were still down nonetheless. It's not the end of the world. This action actually sets up the indices as a trend pivot pullback. If you're looking to get long side exposure, your entry would be above Wednesday's high. All is not good in the world though. Interest rate sensitive areas such as Real Estate and Utilities continue to implode. And, selected other areas such as the Energies and Telecom have lost momentum. Overall though, most sectors, like the overall market, remain in uptrends. Both DIA and SPY printed prices above Wednesday's highs. For those of you who follow Dave, what's your take? Were entries triggered, and did the afternoon decline trigger stop losses?
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61 comments:

  1. Clear CutMay 30, 2013 at 4:05 PM

    He made a error. He meant Tuesday's high, so no 'new' entries were triggered but that didn't stop me from front running YRCW and a couple others that were up today. If you trade the indices I don't think you would have been triggered in and if you were any selling wasn't enough to stop you out.
    The indices have a very low volatility to stops would be pretty wide.

    If you are looking at YRCW for example, he has an entry above 21 an a $5 stop/price target, so that 140 HV would have to move a lot to kick you out of the trade.
    Mostly I expect most service customers just sat on the hands and watched their existing positions today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 2nd_aveMay 30, 2013 at 4:17 PM

      Pretty serious typo, but then if you're a follower you probably would have caught it right away.

      Delete
    2. Clear CutMay 30, 2013 at 4:20 PM

      Yeah, when you look at the chart. Somebody pointed it out in the chart show and he said "if you got in above Wednesday's high you have a head start".

      The methodology is about higher volatility stocks than the indices, so at most we might use them as rough guidelines instead of outright trading them. The exception might be shorting for those w/o margin accounts.

      Delete
  2. KyleMay 30, 2013 at 4:09 PM

    Believe there are still two formations on the table from thewavetrading ...

    http://www.thewavetrading.com/2013/05/26/weekly-analysis-0526/

    http://stocktwits.com/message/13832239

    http://stocktwits.com/message/13852722

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  3. KyleMay 30, 2013 at 4:30 PM

    Like this guy for EOD closing print ...

    https://www.mr-topstep.com/index.php/multimedia/video/latest/closing-print-5-30-2013

    ReplyDelete
  4. ChickenpookieMay 30, 2013 at 7:12 PM

    "Eurodollar -- Isn't it LIBOR???"

    I guess it relates in the sense eurodollar RATE is libor RATE? Also, since buying the contract is equivalent to lending money, and selling the contract short is equivalent to borrowing money, if the contract is losing value it seems the lender is getting cained.

    This rate also has some relationship with the maximum (huh, not minimum?) reserve requirements lenders must maintain on their eurodollar deposits.

    During Obama's State Of The Union speech, he announced an aggressive schedule for implementing an US/eurozone trade agreement and the general response afterward predicted that a realignment of the european banking system with the US banking system would be necessary.

    So naturally I'm trying to comprehend why Brandt chalks the H&S pattern on the 2017 eurodollar contract up to a failure of FED policy, instead of increased reserve requirements which could/would become necessary for implementing an US/EU trade agreement?

    I'm out on a limb with this of course, these relationships are beyond my grasp but that's not stopping me from attempting to comprehend.

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  5. ChickenpookieMay 30, 2013 at 7:23 PM

    SRS - Gained more ground, safe to assume mortgage rates must've increased a bit?

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  6. MarkWMay 31, 2013 at 6:16 AM

    NBG- We missed some fun there.

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    1. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 6:29 AM

      You mean this morning, or yesterdays? I'm happy to have missed yesterdays fun.

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 6:38 AM

      Besides, I'm having enough fun with NLY already. ;)

      Delete
  7. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 6:30 AM

    Japan Economic Watch: Key takeaways from April data: Recovery trend is continuing.

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  8. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 6:33 AM

    Blown out to sea?
    Are we considering any gulf oil island reversal plays for the hurricane season?

    ReplyDelete
  9. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 6:42 AM

    FMD - Looks like Zacks has a little pump for us this morning:

    "We have raised our estimates, and expect higher lending volumes at UFSB, growing contributions from Cology and Monogram, and continued strong expense control to be the primary drivers behind this improvement."

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  10. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 6:56 AM

    BAC - $14 now

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  11. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 6:58 AM

    YRCW - Reached the entry target but pulled back, disqualification?

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    Replies
    1. Clear CutMay 31, 2013 at 7:03 AM

      Nope. A trigger is a trigger. This is why I sometimes front run a pick with a partial position, especially if I've traded it before and am familiar.

      Also, as we know, YRCW is volatile, so position size/money management is important.

      Delete
    2. 2nd_aveMay 31, 2013 at 7:08 AM

      Since the topic of the day is the Landry playbook> I opened two positions in YRCW this morning, one @ 20.81 and one @ 20.58. Closed the first @ 21.10 and the second @ 21.07. Thanks, Craig.

      Delete
    3. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 7:19 AM

      " A trigger is a trigger."

      Okay, so that means the service pick would be underwater at the moment then, I suppose. I get the front-run concept, a slight twist on the service's entry/exit levels, it's always best to enter as low as possible.

      Delete
    4. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 7:21 AM

      Note the gap up was closed, which given the circumstances could/should be anticipated.

      Delete
    5. Clear CutMay 31, 2013 at 7:25 AM

      Actually it's not always best to enter as low as possible. It seems counter intuitive, but waiting for an entry, even if it's higher, is safer.

      This surely isn't the first position where an entry triggered and retraced.

      Delete
    6. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 9:54 AM

      Agreed, not ALL trades go in your favor immediately, and there are no guarantees you won't get stopped out either. Seems like $18.50 might be an interesting bull/bear battle area.

      Delete
  12. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 7:14 AM

    Zacks admits to shady practices:

    "I have to admit that when I started at Zacks in 1999 I felt that we needed to keep up with the Joneses. So we also employed aggressive marketing tactics. We never stooped as low as most of the others. But it was nothing to be proud of either. So about two years ago I vowed to change all that. The reason why is that I could no longer look my daughters in the eyes and talk about morals and ethics without feeling like a big hypocrite. "

    ReplyDelete
  13. MarkWMay 31, 2013 at 7:24 AM

    Your not on vaca anymore bro.

    ReplyDelete
  14. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 7:25 AM

    Okay, so now congress is reconsidering fixed rate student loans.

    These guys are really earning their keep today, they're gonna need a lengthy vacation.

    ReplyDelete
  15. MarkWMay 31, 2013 at 7:28 AM

    ANR is trading at...... 6.66. Omen?

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    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 7:37 AM

      Most likely a bottom? Bears love those digits, 6 is Chinese lucky number?

      Delete
    2. MarkWMay 31, 2013 at 7:39 AM

      I need TOF to hold my hand with the cool trade. I kinda think this time it really IS different. :)

      Delete
    3. AnonymousMay 31, 2013 at 9:14 AM

      Mark - It's ugly as hell man. I still think there are too many bottom feeders in coal and action like this shakes people out as it goes along. What it needs is one or two more 10% to 15% rallies followed by complete reversals and then I think enough people will be wiped out for it to rally higher. So for WLT I'm looking at:

      $17.1 to $17.3 then rally to $20
      then drop to $17.1ish
      then rally to $19.5
      then drop to $17.1ish

      Impatient traders would see no lack of sustained rally as a bearish sign, but bigger picture would be that the low $17s held several times and the bottom is in. That's what I'm looking for.

      If it drops below $16 then we have a problem.

      Delete
    4. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 9:32 AM

      Steel play, I guess. The other is Powder River Basin (PRB) coal which loses competitive edge at some point if natty drops (how about $4 natty?)?

      So it would seem like buying coal at a natty low should make sense but you get hosed in a negative revenue generator if natty doesn't shoot back up?

      Delete
    5. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 9:58 AM

      "we have a problem."

      Twice lately I've heard mention of layoffs in Houston, oil industry, lacking detail of why.

      Delete
  16. AnonymousMay 31, 2013 at 9:17 AM

    "FMD - Looks like Zacks has a little pump for us this morning:"

    CP - I think patience is required on this one. Just need to keep in mind the comments that the CEO stated on the past couple of CC's and that they have enough cash to survive for years. Trends are improving. This will rally hard at some point. Entry point could have been different but I really like the rally potential. I think it gets to at least $4 at some point over the next year.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 9:25 AM

      Agreed, I'm gonna give it plenty of rope. Financial wizardry mystifies me, seems like any bank or IBM's big data artificial intelligence monster could replace FMD. Break a leg! ;)

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMay 31, 2013 at 9:37 AM

      FMD has been in this biz for like 30 or 40 years and the CEO started the business. He left in 2006 because he gave gifts to a former employee of a major client. He came back three years later and has been turning around the business. If the jobs market keeps improving, the student loan market will continue to improve. That's what I think happens. They have a lot of runway before they run out of cash if things don't improve so I'm betting that between now and then there is a massive rally in this stock. Volume is pretty much dead and that usually happens on pullbacks in uptrends. Remember YRCW and TZOO when they were at $7 and $20, respectively?

      Delete
    3. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 10:01 AM

      "Volume is pretty much dead and that usually happens on pullbacks in uptrends."

      Yep, I noticed volume too. I'm nowhere close to giving up, more like looking to add. Thanks for trying to help me understand it.

      Delete
  17. AnonymousMay 31, 2013 at 9:26 AM

    Boy they smacked down India last night. Still trading right around 20,000:
    http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXBOM%3ASENSEX&ei=286oUdCaJor0igKVigE

    10 year chart reminds me an awful lot of IYT before it busted out to much higher levels. I think the same happens in India.

    ReplyDelete
  18. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 9:36 AM

    TLT - Sell in May.

    ReplyDelete
  19. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 10:05 AM

    Plentiful bounty of economic performance data next week, seems like.

    ReplyDelete
  20. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 10:10 AM

    TITN - Doesn't seem to be falling anymore.

    ReplyDelete
  21. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 10:21 AM

    YRCW - I think with a close better than $20.35, we might have a chance for some upside. No position, just looking over the chart and following the trade at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  22. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 10:31 AM

    GGB - Still getting smashed, somebody knows something, I can't accept that prices trade in a vacuum.

    ANR - $7.52 looks like a logical place for shorts to place a stop limit.

    ReplyDelete
  23. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 11:54 AM

    KUD.SW - This company is interesting, or at least their products are. Specifically, their double-layer network security products, which to be fair have been around awhile but apparently overlooked by many defense contractors IT departments.

    http://www.nagraid.com/about/group.html

    ReplyDelete
  24. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 12:04 PM

    When I think back on all the crap this market throws at us, it's a wonder we can think at all.

    ReplyDelete
  25. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 12:14 PM

    HXM - Of course the funny business we're witnessing would have to have pockets of icing plastered over it.

    ReplyDelete
  26. DavidMay 31, 2013 at 12:26 PM

    As far back as I can remember, whenever a jump in gold/silver was sold the very next day, much lower prices were seen soon after that...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 12:46 PM

      Were you ever to determine if the TOG sequence involved simultaneously being long PM's and short T's, or are these two actions part of a rotation? I never was clear on that.

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 12:58 PM

      SVM is flat, bizzaro world remains intact.

      Delete
  27. AnonymousMay 31, 2013 at 12:50 PM

    Funny after I talked about WLT I went to my son's 18 month checkup and came back and WLT rallied only to give up the ghost and then rally back to $17.20 before fading again. Looking at the action in EWZ and a few other overseas markets and looking at Nat Gas got me spooked. I bailed on WLT at $17.14 out of fear, I'll admit. I just prefer being in cash though going into this weekend, fully aware that I could be missing out on a big gain on Monday in WLT. Oh well. Total hit to the port of about 5 to 6%.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 1:01 PM

      Sure as hell it will tank if you own it and rally the moment you sell, 98% probability.

      Delete
    2. AnonymousMay 31, 2013 at 1:07 PM

      yeah. part of the concern i've had all along with WLT and the coals is that the energy sector was in a bull market for like 13 years and if it's anything like gold then it's probably not the best sector to be playing going forward. the other factor that played into this is i'm up over 100% on the year and i would like to preserve a good chunk of those gains so i did this in part out of fear. i still think there's money to be made on a trade i just haven't had much success with these. live and learn. hopefully i won't be cursing myself on monday.

      Delete
  28. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 1:02 PM

    Ding, ding, time to spank a big red hiney.

    ReplyDelete
  29. Clear CutMay 31, 2013 at 1:08 PM

    Well now.....I've had better days.
    DANG offset a lot of my crap trades and those came back pretty good in the closing half hour.

    At the most a 1.5% whacking to the port. It could have been much worse if I didn't get into YRCW much lower a few days ago.

    Trader Joe's "Rum of the Gods" is calling...

    ReplyDelete
  30. ChickenpookieMay 31, 2013 at 1:13 PM

    FLOW - Retested that breakout support today and closed better than the open.

    ReplyDelete
  31. DavidMay 31, 2013 at 1:23 PM

    Wow, what has happened at the close? I went out for a walk, and now I see that S&P futures dropped below the double bottom they made last week!

    http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1

    Interesting response from PNPFF to this event. Even GDX and GDXJ rallied at the close. So I guess the Black Box algos were indeed long S&P and short the miners, with these positions getting somewhat unwound at the close...

    ReplyDelete
  32. AnonymousMay 31, 2013 at 2:31 PM

    ANR bottomed out almost 9 months ago, rallied over 100% and has given back almost 78.6% of the gains.

    BTU rallied from about $18.7 to $29.8 for a gain of about 50% from July to November 2012. It has since retested the bottom and stands about 5% higher than the July 2012 bottom.

    hmmm. I wonder if there's still one more big washout left in the coal stocks. Remember how solar stocks rallied hard in the beginning of 2012 only to be met with unrelenting selling a few months later? i wonder if that's in store for coal.

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    Replies
    1. illiniMay 31, 2013 at 8:03 PM

      BTU is a sore point since I sold only half of my position when it began falling from the 60's a couple years ago. Regrets.

      Delete
  33. MarkWMay 31, 2013 at 5:24 PM

    Wow, am I ready for a weekend. Gave a little back today, but still only about 1% below year high.

    ReplyDelete
  34. MarkWMay 31, 2013 at 5:28 PM

    This should be a fun weekend. Kendra has a local game tomorrow that should be really good and Hailey has a Tourny in Sacto on Sunday. Good stuff.

    ReplyDelete
  35. DavidMay 31, 2013 at 5:52 PM

    If you thought the finish in S&P was bad today, take a look at the finish of HYG -- it is back to February lows now. High-yield bonds usually anticipate the start of bad times first. S&P was 1500 in February...

    ReplyDelete
  36. AnonymousMay 31, 2013 at 9:48 PM

    anyone else seeing pretty much every china stock setting up as a buy?

    SCOK
    GURE
    CNTF
    STP
    ACTS
    CHLN
    MY
    ISS

    I'm only through 1/2 of them...jeez.

    ReplyDelete
  37. 2nd_aveJune 1, 2013 at 9:24 AM

    new post

    ReplyDelete

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