Saturday, June 1, 2013
06/01/13 Recency Bias/ Setbacks
http://www.wikinvest.com/wiki/Recency_bias
The indexes rallied the first quarter of 2013. It's human nature to think it continues to rally through 2013. If it rallies through 2013, then it's natural to think it rallies through 2014.
When things go well in life, it's also natural for homo sapiens to believe things will continue to go well. Thus it was not uncommon to drive down Bay Area freeways in 2007 alongside brand new vehicles in every lane while listening to multiple radio pitches for 'pulse' loans (if you have a pulse, we can offer you a loan).
Yet life is full of setbacks. We start watching for the unexpected after an uneventful stretch. We brace for rough seas by hedging with insurance or nest eggs.
The path of the stock market unfolds in much the same way. Complacency will soon be replaced with the next global economic disaster and an attendant spike in the VIX. We can brace for it by hedging with inverse ETFs or cash.
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Good post. I agree. Typically, though, every crash starts with a break of the 200 DMA. And generally in a bull market the first few breaks are false breaks. It's only later on in the rally that the breaks become more dangerous.
ReplyDeleteYesterday's trading was pretty bad and it sets in motion a series of lower highs. It's nothing to jump out the window over but it is worth watching closer for sure.
I keep thinking back to what Acampora calls a fantastic long term market. A good part of me agrees with him because sentiment is still very low for a market at all time highs. It's good to keep in mind even guys like him can be wrong:
"As for Acampora, he's retired now but continues to teach. He held forth as Prudential Equity Group's top technical analyst from 1990 until the firm disbanded his department in late 2005. A co-founder of the Market Technicians Association, he worked at Kidder Peabody in the 1980s. Some of you might remember him as a panelist on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser.
The Acampora who spoke last night was pretty much the same Ralph I interviewed more than a decade ago for Barron's Online. Though in his late 60s, he hasn't changed much: He was animated, ebullient, and bullish again.
Back then, he made a series of remarkable calls. In June 1995, with the Dow trading in the mid-4000s, he said it would hit 7,000. When it reached that level, he predicted it would get to 8,250. In March 1999 he said Dow 10,000 was in the bag. It surpassed all of those targets.
Then Acampora got a bit carried away.
"This could be the start of a 'mega-market' lasting 12-15 years, similar to the boom markets that followed the First and Second World Wars," he wrote in early 1999, and said the Dow could hit 18,500 by 2006.
Oops. A little more than a year later, the Internet boom had gone bust, and we went through a horrible, 2 1/2-year bear market. Though the Dow did achieve an all-time closing high of 14,164.53 on October 9, 2007, it was comfortably below his target."
The most important thing to remember in pullbacks is that those sectors / stocks that hold up well in the drop are the ones that will do best in the rebound if the rally is to continue. Those are the ones that people are rotating into.
Delete'It's good to keep in mind even guys like him can be wrong.'
DeleteThat's right. We're all wrong much of the time. Livermore, Hussman, Cara. It doesn't matter who you are, what your background is, what title(s) you hold, or who your sources are. Life is too complicated for one person/group of persons to be right more than anyone else/another.
Never hang your hat on one person's opinion.
I thought about making this comment yesterday in response to illini's comment on BTU. My biggest regrets have been when I don't use stops. Which means my biggest regrets are positively correlated to my losses.
DeleteNow, here I am contemplating a new long term investment. Over the last couple of weeks I've met with some peeps that have operational meetings with Rich Kinder. Just listening to the way they describe him and how he runs his meetings is pretty impressive. I'm thinking about KMI.
Here's an interesting chart one of the stockcharts peeps put together. It's a 6.5 year chart of unemployment and the spy. I wish it were a 15 year chart. I'd like to see if the market was going up when unemployment was a low stable number.
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$$UNEMPCIN&p=W&yr=7&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80701091715&a=301610576
Take a look fro the chart since 2000:
Deletehttp://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2013/5/30/initial-jobless-claims-rise-more-than-expected.html
Hi guys,
ReplyDeleteGot back from vacation on Tuesday, but my father-in-law passed away Monday, so been a hectic week to say the least.
Updated my spreadsheets for May though and turned out to be a very good month. Nice when you have a vacation and make money.
If I was going to make a prediction, I think June is a nothing month, with a lot of back and forth and people saying we are topping or basing. I think the key will be July to see if we resume the uptrend or really start to turn down for a significant correction. Still feels like up is the easiest for now though.
My anecdotal view of the Italian economy is that it was good, but not great. Restaurants seemed fairly busy, but not packed - always could get a table in the place we wanted. Talking to the hotel and B&B owners and they said business was OK, but not as good as it was a few years ago and not good enough to start rehiring staff as they have in the past. I think they've got to turn that corner to get the employment cycle restarted and then things could accelerate fairly quickly. It makes sense that easier money could help this.
ReplyDeletePrice over there were pretty good by the way as our dollars are fairly high. Best deal was a good bottle of Italian Chardonnay, regular price 4.20 Euros for 77% off at 0.95 Euro cents.
Amazing charts. Looks like a good leading indicator telling you when to be bull or bear.
ReplyDeleteI'm referring to the initial jobless claims charts.
Deletethe more i look at coal the more i'm thinking there's still a major trouncing coming up. i think there may be one last feeble rally attempt over the coming few weeks but the charts just look bad. anyone else have a different take?
ReplyDeleteThere is a cycle guy who says that you should short NG as the cycle is turning down. If this pans out, I would think that would continue to pressure coals.
ReplyDeleteThere are some cycles that show the SP will turn in June, as usual different interpretations of same model. The model I follow says 22 Jun, but others have it as 7 JUN on a tweaked version. Personally when the mkt starts to roll I'd rather be out of stocks than trying to find those that go up against the trend.
Go Hass and Go Tsonga!
Possible scenario going forward (from 61p8):
Deletehttp://charts.61point8.com/20130601-SPX-Weekly.png
June events may continue uptrend (or not) :-)
http://www.thewavetrading.com/2013/06/02/weekly-analysis-0526-2/
Yeah Kyle, like Ghostine's charts.
DeleteThe home team shut out their opponents in their final game of the season, 5-0. I'm pretty sure this means they finish with a first place ranking, but it won't be official until another contender posts their results. No goals for the big guy, although he assisted on two scores with well-placed passes. At the very least, it will be a winning season- no mean feat for a second-year team that finished last (or next to last) last year.
ReplyDeleteDJIA futes currently +51, but I prefer to take my cue from the Nikkei. The fact that I'm on the alert for a significant decline in global indexes probably means it won't happen Monday. Still, a mini-crash wouldn't be a surprise.
ReplyDeleteI think you will be correct on a mini crash. I think we follow the Nikkei a little bit. My take is too many people are looking for a minor pullback. Need fear to return to the market. I think there's an outside chance we test the 200 DMA fairly soon.
Deletemore likely we see a drop to 1,550ish. that makes the most sense to me.
DeleteRobot remains short from 1661 on 5/22
ReplyDelete"Sell in May and wait for June", or "Sell in June to avoid the doom"?
SPX - Topping tails formation? Central bankers recognize the market is testing their meddle? Let's see if we can get some upside to short into? Greater than 1661 would really be cool...
I dunno about Nikkei, profits from a Godzilla run naturally should be locked in so a 14% pullback is healthy? "It's not unusual to make love at anytime", or "Domo arigato, Mr. Roboto!"
PCL - Neutral -> Buy
ReplyDeleteWonder how China's Mongolian mining efforts are going, Tibet?
ReplyDeleteSHZ - Hmm.... What's up with this one, seems to be trouble.
ReplyDeleteDisco Inferno - (Burn Baby Burn)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A_sY2rjxq6M
Sold BANC this morning at $13.18 as I really don't get their deal to sell 8 branches and 1/4 of their deposits for what appears to be $10 million. Might be smart and might get more money, but I have a tough time understanding the nuances of the banking business sometimes, so better just to find something easier.
ReplyDeleteING took a little skinny dip under $9 last week and stopped me out, so now you can be certain it rips higher.
DeleteCCI - Reiterate BUY
ReplyDelete12mo PO is $86, that's a call for 20% upside.
DeleteI hate posting after the fact trades but I can't post on my iphone for whatever reason. I'm sure glad I sold WLT on Friday. I had crash on my mind all weekend and I loaded up on SPXS this morning at $10.526. I didn't get a chance to watch it but it looks like it had a couple of big fakeout rallies. Something is telling me we see a nasty drop here. Maybe to 1,500?
ReplyDeleteAlso shorted NIHD at $7.7 this morning and bought a few puts in it ($8 strike expiring in 3 weeks). My thinking is a re-test of the $6.50 level is in store. Small position.
DeleteI'm still wondering if China hasn't decided to obtain their natural resources a bit closer to home.
Delete1878.HK - Judging by this one it looks as if China switched to something besides coal, even this producer is beat to heck..
DeleteGrantham had a good writeup on coal and alt energy in his latest quarterly report on www.gmo.com. I read it over the weekend and it confirmed my thinking that getting out of WLT was the right move and made me think coal could get really ugly.
DeletemREIT Book Value......
ReplyDeleteHmm... So does the FED really want the value of their tens of billions of MBS's to tank? Well maybe, but I kinda doubt that's the plan.
XHB tanking. I think this market is setting up for more pain...I'm also thinking Japan could drop to 12,000 making it a 25% drop from 2 weeks ago. That would put a lot of fear in the market and make things ready for a bounce.
ReplyDeleteIn looking around at trader tweets, articles, etc, consensus is expecting expecting downside to the 50 DMA at most. Either we stop here or we go a good deal lower. Either way odds of us seeing a fall to the 50 DMA and then a rebound is low.
ReplyDeleteAfter last Oct/Nov, nothing surprises me anymore and we're a good deal higher now than we were then.
DeleteLittle bear flag being formed on the hourly chart. My suspicion is this is a sharp pullback to 1,500 to 1,550. The Nikkei and Brazilian pullbacks has me thinking this.
DeleteThe 50 is also at previous support. A good entry and stop if it fails.
Deleteyeah. although again i think it either ends today or ends well below the 50 DMA. pretty much every trader i'm reading comments from suggests the 50DMA as a possible target if the market is going to pull back further. will be interesting to see how it closes today.
DeleteAlmost seems like there are still a few out there who haven't received the memo we're supposed to sell off.
ReplyDeleteYep - this triangle doesn't seem to want to cooperate.
Delete"I was talking about triangles last week and their tendency to often give a false break first before the real break in the opposite direction. Will that happen here? I think that's unlikely as this break down is well supported on other equity indices. There is a nicely formed double-top on Dow, and that broke down on Friday afternoon. ... "
http://www.channelsandpatterns.com/
Assuming the probability bears will soon be disappointed is ((max-min)/(2*mean))*100%,
DeleteI don't have enough fingers and toes to crunch the results, can I borrow some of yours?
Short the close for tomorrow's gap down to 1250?
ReplyDeleteMay as well, this isn't investing it's gambling.
FMD - $1.23, for our regularly scheduled BS you till you give up contestants.
ReplyDeletevery low volume. been watching this one as well. still have a good chunk at around $1.20 avg i think.
Deletegonna hold the SPXS thru tonight and stop myself out above 1,645. shoulda coulda woulda taken profits in hindsight.
Little volume just came in before the close on FMD. nice finish. Wouldn't be opposed to seeing it jump above the recent channel into the $1,30's
DeleteYeah, they pull this crap over and over again till you give up(I guess the algo can figure out when retail gives up) then rip it higher.
DeleteIf only we could deconstruct the algo, find it's flaws and exploit them.
ha yeah. Shit i just realized I have like 1/3 of my money in this thing. wonder if i should have been selling a little into the close there. honestly i think this is a good longer term hold though. still like the comments the CEO made on the last couple calls.
DeleteThe tops in the S&P futures chart since May 22 are forming a straight line:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1
Tomorrow that line should be at 1650. Just to be sure, I'll wait for the futures to rise above 1660 (the previous top) and will then close my September VXX calls.
would be a doozy if they gap down SPY tomorrow. lots of traders calling for the 21st tuesday in a row of gains.
DeleteAh, that's what probably explains the ramp up in S&P starting mid-day -- traders buying in expectations of an up day on Tuesday. With so few new buyers left, I wouldn't be surprised to see a gap down Tuesday. Interesting how slow the traders were in catching up to the "up Tuesday" pattern. Even more interestingly, for the very first time I myself got the thought after last Tuesday that I should trade on this pattern. I wonder what has kept us skeptical of this pattern for 20 weeks and the collectively lifted our skepticism on the 21st week?
DeleteSounds like a very plausible explanation David and a good fit with what happenned today.
DeleteGDXJ outperforming GDX today, SLV outperforming GLD, and it is all despite S&P being up! If the money is no longer coming out of PMs to be invested into S&P, are we out of the woods?
ReplyDeleteHow about a pair of pink sidewinders
ReplyDeleteAnd a bright orange pair of pants?
You could really be a Beau Brummell baby
If you just give it half a chance.
Don't waste your money on a new set of speakers,
You get more mileage from a cheap pair of sneakers.
Next phase, new wave, dance craze, anyways
It's still rock and roll to me.....
NSPH - Nanosphere suddenly went into the green in the last 4 minutes of trading on big bars and high volume. No news.
ReplyDeleteInteresting chart:
ReplyDeletehttp://stocktwits.com/message/13910974
Lots more buying that selling in that chart, the buy and hold crowd reloading?
DeleteSure seems like we should have a down day today given so much focus on being an "up Tuesday".
ReplyDeleteI am!
Deletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-06-04/previewing-todays-market-one-picture
DeleteOne of these days people are going to lean real hard into this whole tuesday up trend and get smacked down huge. I still am holding on that WLT trade....against my better judgement.
ReplyDeleteThrew in the white towel on WLT here.
DeleteGood Luck PZ
Leash is getting shorter.....maybe 16 for a stop. Pondering it right now. Haven't gotten killed on it yet. My full position is half what it was last time I got smacked in the mouth with it.
DeleteLooks like prices must move down before they can move up, and vice-versa.
ReplyDeleteWithout profit taking, money doesn't move into the economy, it just sits there collecting dust, right?
Should we be shorting here, it looks like maybe we've peaked..... Clearly not at the top anymore.
ReplyDeleteTook some dollars off. Out of NOK at 3.53. for a monster .03 cent scalp over a few days.
ReplyDelete200SMA - Where's your 200SMA? It moves around on my chart, depending on which one I'm looking at.
ReplyDeletePerhaps this explains why "TA doesn't work"?
That also explains why a pocket knife doesn't make a person a surgeon! LOL!
DeleteOn any daily chart over three months Where you can see it) the 200 is at 149.38 (SPY)
DeleteThis "weekly" chart is three years in length, the SMA200 is 123.37
DeleteI might experience a better rate of success performing surgery with a pocket knife.
I should probably post the link:
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPY&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p38074540410
So if you are a super long term buy and hold "investor" and you don't care about drawdowns in the long run, you use a longer term much slower chart.
DeleteMost traders (note- not investors) want a faster signal and would be using daily charts and their signal would be sooner than on a weekly chart. If we see a trend reversal I would want out at 149.38, not 123.37. You may not care.
Scalpel or pocket knife, the choice of tool is yours.
FMD - Well I was going to add, but canceled my order b/c it looks like the market wants to roll over.
ReplyDeleteI always get hosed for trying to use a logical thinking process.
Took off all the FMD @ 1.27 for a UNCH trade ...taking some risk off, plus I gotta believe I can re enter lower on this one
ReplyDeleteDown to 600 WLT and 1100 REDF.....Lots of cash
DeleteNLY - A higher low, wonder if shorts intend on paying the dividend this quarter?
ReplyDeleteThere are some sectors rolling over, mainly interest rate sensitive sectors and now telecom and food and beverage, but it's still too early to call tops. The pattern is still a pivot high, but last Tuesday's high has to be taken out to go long indices.
ReplyDelete"interest rate sensitive sectors"
DeleteThat's a pretty broad brush. The entire global economy is so loaded up with debt, one could say it's interest rate sensitive.
And then there are those who make money from rate spreads.
REITS, utilities are interest rate sensitive. As sectors they are in downtrends.
DeleteThe real trouble is how F'ed up the relationship is because of Fed intervention.
Usually equities/bonds are inverse to one another. What does a trader do when bonds are toppy and equities are toppy? Something has to give.
Will bonds still be the flight to safety? PM's?
Beautiful basing chart for TBT.
Also, there is a difference between established interest rates on existing debt, and new debt at higher rates; ie: long term vs short term. RE is built on that premise. That's why funds were buying up RE to sell later, the rates made that possible. The Fed has been shifting our debt to the LT at these rates. Anyone with any sense is.
DeleteI'm a firm believer in the premise of buying oversold and selling overbought, whenever possible.
DeleteFMD is very interesting. I like how it's consolidating here near the highs of the past year.
ReplyDeleteI agree. Just think it will present another sub 1.20 for sure especially if market rolls over for a dip. I wanna own it going forward, but there has been so many dips to sub 1.15 I gotta believe we get one more here.
DeleteREDF is anemic again. I want to double below 2.70.
CECO is a good add anywhere below 2.95
Also, eyeing XHB for an entry sub 30 again as a longer term trade.
VZ dipped to 47.xx recently too, another good entry to look for longer term I think.
FMD - Suddenly lift back to $1.27 sure seems suspicious but hey, I've learned not to argue.
Deletemight regret that sell at 1.27....looks poised to lift off
Delete"....looks poised to lift off"
DeleteNot till I sell it, promise!
let it come in to 1.15 then sell please. :)
Delete"let it come in to 1.15 then sell please."
DeleteWell that's not my plan, was looking to add so that means the trend is down now. :)
Later gators.
ReplyDeleteAfter while, crocodile!
DeleteTook off my SPXS into that spike down for a small loss.
ReplyDeleteLong small stake in ACTS at $3.
ReplyDeleteThat one sounds pretty cool, God it's small!
Deleteit showed up on my screen for China stocks and i like the chart. i honestly don't know much about it fundamentally. Just playing what I see as a low risk trade.
DeleteThis morning's feeble rally in S&P stopped exactly at the declining trend line connecting the tops since May 22:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=ES&p=h1
It's only been 8 trading days, isn't it early to declare the patient dead?
DeleteWe're comparing not quite two trading weeks to several months of up trend. We are still in an uptrend.
I agree..a bit too early. Ideally what I would like to see is a sideways trend here with interest rates consolidating their latest move. I'm beginning to think that is more likely to occur. This all could be nothing more than a slow rotation into new sectors whose start occurred more abruptly than some people expected which caused them to get scared. Lots of analysts / technical guys are getting defensive of late which in the big picture is a good thing.
DeleteHere comes some more selling. Would love to see a rout.
DeleteBig Dave mentioned the sector rotation last night, so I think you are right.
DeleteI would get more cautious if more sectors break down, but so far we are still in a persistent trend.
If FMD closes above $1.28 today it will be it's highest close since March 2012.
ReplyDeleteFBN getting toe tagged? wow.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't everything furniture eventually get toe tagged only to become reborn?
DeleteClosed out my NIHD short.
ReplyDeleteI have been trying to put a stagnant portion of my overall portfolio back in to CHSCP for long time now. I sold it on what I thought was a spike a few months ago and it just refuses to come back below 32. Great divi stock.....about as stable as they come since I became aware of it 5 years ago or so.
ReplyDeleteHave a look if you are looking for a super stable stock to park money into and earn 5-6%.
VZ - I kinda like this idea, but is this sector utility or technology?
ReplyDeletePerhaps I'm confused now b/c it seems the new devices have been designed to place me in the ditch as opposed to extricating me from one.
Telecom.
DeleteLandry this AM: "As I often preach, it is our job to build a case for market direction and then look to tear it down. Right now, the indices and most sectors remain in uptrends. So the trend remains up. There are some caveats though. As I've been saying, interest sensitive areas like Real Estate and Utilities remain in solid downtrends. And now some other areas such as Telecom and Food & Beverage have been sliding."
DeleteSo VZ may not be a deal.
Traders who bought S&P yesterday mid-day in expectation of a rally on Tuesday are panicking now...
ReplyDeleteI set up way to easy today when DOW was up about 40 points. Missed my TZA entry by a few cents at 30.74 because I refused to buy it with a Market order. $ oppurtunity lost is all I guess.
DeleteOne thing that is concerning is that the market never really got above the level it spiked down from on Friday. It went above it briefly today but was rejected quickly.
DeleteGot an ugly feeling we got have a decent correction coming. Debating adding a few fav's back at the close on the cheap vs. going 100% cash......
DeleteI mentioned yesterday - we either stop above the 50 DMA or see a bigger correction to the 1,550 level. Too many people are eyeing the 50 dMA in my opinion.
DeleteFMD - Now this is one funny stock. Down 4% on 13,419 shares in the past 15 minutes. Yes that's about $17,000.
ReplyDeleteI highly doubt many of those trades were executed by human beings.
DeletePrawn traders in District 9?
DeleteGreen close?
Deletei predict we get a 21st straight up tuesday
ReplyDeleteif i'm wrong mark buys drinks.
DeleteIf I'm right we're all going to Ruby Tuesdays.
DeletePut some TNA behind your prediction.....I will watch. :)
ReplyDeleteSPXL?
DeleteWhy not....pick your own 3x the fun fund
DeleteShould have.....twice today I got trigger shy on the 3x and would have been rewarded. Hope you bought TOF.
DeleteI did. BOught it at $33.56. Just sold SPXL at $44.13...close enough for me.
Deletesweet
Deletetrade
thanks. best part is i don't have to buy lunch and mark buys drinks.
DeleteSemis definitely not confirming today's bearishness
ReplyDeleteI'll buy.
ReplyDeleteAdded some redf at 2.73
ReplyDeleteI'm beginning to think my choice of REDF over DANG a month ago was a poor one. Fn A man.
ReplyDeleteSmall starter position in EGLE at $4.18. Another one that looks good on the chart. I read their conf call transcript and think there are significantly higher prices in store for shippers at some point. Here's part of it:
ReplyDeletehttp://wallstcheatsheet.com/stocks/eagle-bulk-shipping-earnings-call-nuggets-supply-demand-analysis-rate-environment.html/?ref=YF
Yeah, I read somewhere that UPS increased freight fees.
DeleteEGLE is a dry bulk shipper. There's a lot of interesting stuff going on in this industry. CapEx has completely shut down due to oversupply and big money is gobbling up the excess ships off the market. Could be a drastically different market for them in 12 months based on what I've read.
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-03-28/wilbur-ross-to-put-1-billion-more-in-distressed-ships.html
And below is a clip from the link I posted in my original post above:
Alex Hahn – Citigroup: This is (Alex Hahn) in for Chris. We wanted to know if the demand was supportive of the spot market rates going to the back half of the year and when we can see rate recovery?
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Sophocles N. Zoullas – Chairman and CEO: That’s a great question. I would say the whole downturn in the market going back to the end of 2008 because it’s been a very protracted bad market has never really been a demand problem apart from the first six months after Lehman Brothers, which was a dislocation in the banking system when there was demand for cargoes, but people couldn’t get (indiscernible) issue. Our view has been pretty consistent throughout the last four and a half years, that it’s never been a demand problem. The problem is really been a supply problem as I characterized in the remarks earlier, which we view as subsiding pretty quickly through this year – really end of this year into next year, and by the summer of next year quite rapidly. So, our view on demand is that it’s been stable throughout. Our outlook on demand for the next year is good as you know, because we typically see 20 to 25 different commodities because we trade Supramaxes, which carry every kind of dry bulk cargo, we feel we have very good visibility on dry bulk commodity demand. Our view is that across all the commodities we see there is generally healthy demand, the only thing I will comment is that we did notice a dislocation in iron ore trade in the first quarter, which impacted the bigger ships, but it’s only a small part of our trade that’s why we were able to move into a lot of other markets, and also you saw us move more into the minor bulks 55% of our cargoes carried, which is reflective of a weaker market where we move into the cargoes that the bigger ships can’t carry. I hope that answer the question.
My point was it doesn't appear freighting stuff from point A to point B is getting cheaper whether by land, sea or air.
DeleteCome to think of it, I'm still waiting for my $0.25 gasoline, haven't seen that in quite a while either.
That other site is really dead. Last today is at 1:35 EST.
ReplyDeleteWill be looking for Ilya's comment in the AM. That caustic old SOB usually has something interesting to say.
DeleteTA - This chart may provide some entertainment here shortly.
ReplyDeleteWent golfing with the gold bug friends today and the hard core one is starting to question if maybe the bull in gold is over and says there's a good chance we don't see $1,900 gold again and maybe even see lower prices in gold over the next while. Says we need the world to fall apart (which he likes to look for) in order to get gold up to new highs.
ReplyDeleteKind of makes me wonder if we are getting to the point where everyone who wants to sell PM's has, so we start going up due to a lack of sellers. Plus a couple of the better contrarian investors I follow are starting to edge into gold.
Going to have to do some more thinking on this. The miners, especially the junior ones, are dirt cheap.
Margin debt reached a high in April, which could exacerbate the effect of a selloff.
ReplyDeleteAXLL - Could be an entry soon?
ReplyDelete