My largest fear currently is the storm visiting my area the next couple of days will screw my ability to buy into this pullback, like the last one that kept me from buying YRCW at $5.80....
Say what, John Mauldin lives in an apartment in Dallas? Anyway, I'm thinking nuclear power gets turned back on if Japan plans on selling Lexus' for the price of a Kia:
"says he is planning to hedge his entire mortgage to Japan's weakening currency in hopes of paying for his new Dallas apartment.
"The country is dying. People are retiring," he says, adding that by the time "Abenomics" has run its course, "you'll be able to buy a Lexus cheaper than a Kia.""
Japan could be pushed to the point where it restructures and opens up its economy for immigration. They say the main problem with that is the pain felt at the individual level there still hasn't been that great.
Probably will work out well, but you still want to watch it to see what they really do over there.
If I had to shoot from the hip, I'd say SHLD must've seriously f'd OSH in the utube, they were doing great till SHLD bought them so WTF?. Could be a great opportunity, just don't know.
Similar business model as TSCO, except TSCO offers considerably more in their stores.
I added to FMD yesterday at $1.17 and $1.18. I also got my total shares in DRAM up to 10,000. I'm keeping this amount with the understanding that it could go to zero. However, the chart looks f*cking fantastic and I think has a decent chance of doing a moon shot.
https://twitter.com/Ralph_Acampora "Since the DJIA's high on May 28th we've seen failed rallies and very negative breadth. This current corrective phase in not over."
https://twitter.com/RedDogT3Live "$spx futures down 8-10 handles rewarding some traders who were looking for downside follow thru to the past few sessions bearish action"
We shall see. My big picture take is still that people are way too cautious / skeptical to make this a top. Could be wrong but thats just how I feel. I do like that many long time bulls have gotten cautious. I think that's important because it will only fuel the upside when we get out of this correction as more people will be on the sidelines. if you think of it just in terms of a pool of potential buyers, I think the pool has gottne larger with people like James Paulsen, Jim Cramer, and even Ralph Acampora all suggesting near term weakness and not an ideal time to be buying. Many people consider them to be permabulls. If the market holds in here then I think there's a very good chance we see 1,700 within a month or two.
If the selloff is over (and I think it is) I think one good thing to look at is which stocks have outperformed between today and a week or so ago when the market spiked down. I see that oil is holding up very well. I believe energy does well in a rising rate environment so maybe that's part of the outperformance?
FMD - Having trouble finding characteristics to dislike concerning the weekly chart, need some help.
Wouldn't a pullback to ~$1 in about the next 4 weeks help to form the right shoulder of the IH&S with head in December? The IH&S target would be ~$1.90
Wonder if the dividend ever gets reinstated, say maybe $0.08/Q, that would be something like a 25% annual dividend at today's share price, right? I think I need to at least double my position if FMD successfully retests $1
F*cking a my post got deleted. Good observation on the weekly chart. Div reinstated? A lot needs to happen before that like getting back into securitization market and getting new lending partners. if either happens could see a nice pop. if both happens could see a parabolic move higher. i like the downside buffer with cash/book value about 50% higher than market cap.
there's a big seller out there that has been pressuring the stock for a few days...roughly 100k shares on the ASK.
I feel like the dealer is feeding me cards and the waitress is plying me with free drinks.
Was lucky to be watching DRAM as it popped to 4.75 so took some partial profits. Hard to ignore a 21% move in minutes. I know it's a bounce off the 50 but it's just too easy.
Here's why I'm thinking $10 or more - this is from their quarterly report in late March:
"Since the close of our third quarter on January 31, 2013 we have seen an increase in pricing which can positively impact our memory business for the balance of the fiscal year and beyond.”
Mr. Freeman concluded, “In addition to a healthier semiconductor industry, we continue to develop and expand our relationship with Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., which together with our RAMDisk agreement and other new opportunities we are currently pursuing should provide new sources of revenue, profit and growth for Dataram in 2013 and beyond. ”"
HELL (The Borowitz Report)—Word that the News Corporation chief executive Rupert Murdoch has filed for divorce from his wife, Wendi Deng, came as a “total surprise” to longtime Murdoch confidant Satan, the Lord of the Underworld said today.
“I am totally blindsided by this,” Satan told reporters. “He and I talk every day.”
Citing his long history with the media titan, the Hound of Hell said, “We go way back. I gave him the idea for Fox News. I told him to hire Roger Ailes. That’s why this is such a shock.”
A frequent dining companion of the Murdochs, Satan said he “didn’t have a clue that they were having problems.”
“I’ve had dozens of dinners with them in the Hamptons,” he said. “Did they bicker? No more than other couples. But they seemed to be on the same page about all the important things, like creating corrupt media monopolies and buying politicians. I thought they were for keeps.”
Adding that he “cares deeply about his friends,” Satan said the news about the Murdochs had hit him especially hard: “I was just starting to get over the Putins.”
The Prince of Darkness said he first got word of the Murdoch divorce about an hour before the official announcement: “My banker at Goldman Sachs called and told me to sell my News Corp. stock right away.”
Me: Good morning! I'd like to confirm the following re my accounts: RYWVX (Rydex Emerging Markets 2x) has two trading 'windows' each day, 1030 am and 345 pm. Should I decide to open a position prior to the 1030 am window, will I be allowed to close the position (ie, will the trade have 'settled') prior to the 345 pm window?
Rep: Please allow me just a moment to review that fund for you.
Rep; Thank you for your patience. Our system indicates that this fund closes trading at 3:45 with a one business day settlement period. Give me just a few more moments to verify this with another resource.
Me: OK. Take your time. It's obviously a critical point!
Rep: Thank you for your patience. The fund does have a 1030 and a 1545 cutoff, so you could buy shares during either window. There is a one business day settlement period on the purchase so you could not sell the shares in the afternoon if you purchased them in the morning. In addition, this fund is part of our funds network, so there is no commission or load to purchase the fund; however, if you sell shares within 60 days of purchase, an online fee of $75 would be applied to the sale. Please keep in mind that mutual funds are not intended to be actively traded. If this is your intention, you may want to research ETFs with similar objectives.
Me: Understood. One additional clarification of the 'one day settlement.' Would opening a position at 1545 today qualify for close at 1030 tomorrow (ie, less than 24 hours, but still 'one business day')?
Why didn't I just trade EEM? That's the psychological downside to human nature. Once I 'gave up' on RYWVX, I kind of said '---- it' to EEM as well. No excuse- I should have opened EEM.
* Micron Technology, Inc: Factoring in Elpida M&A fully: PO up to $18, estimates up too.
* KMT released its trailing 3-month order rate for May. Organic order rates declined 7% vs -8% in April. The May order rate indicates industrial activity is broadly in line with the prior 2 months.
* Agricultural Chemicals: April showers bring strong May potash shipments in NA
Sold 1/3 of the CHSCP up .25 cents after it payed the .50 cent Divi. (75 cent gain). It is amazing how hard this stock works to support that divi every quarter. So sitting with 600 shares for now.
My point in bringing up the baltic dry index is it sure looks like it's coming out of a depression like base. If that happens and if it can begin a new bull market, then you need to consider the following:
(1) Many companies are operating at positive free cash flow right now. The bulk of their income statement losses come from deprec on the ships.
(2) While its true that these companies aren't marking the value of their ships to the current market value, you have to understand that the current market value is so ridiculously depressed that it's irrational to do so. This would be no different than banks having to mark their mortgages to values in March 2009 at a time when there was practically no market for them.
(3) If the baltic dry index begins to ascend into a new bull market, then the issues relating to #2 above will go away because the higher the spot rates, then the higher the value of the ships.
Having said all of this I did sell on the pop at the open but I'm still looking at this space from the bull side.
Plus Wilbur Ross makes a pretty compelling argument about the dynamics of the shipping market and why it will turn in the next couple of years.
Good time to be buying for a few year hold. Well, may be better to get a pullback, but I think stock prices are much closer to their bottoms than tops.
lesson there is to wait for a break above the weekly moving averages and a new high, followed by a successful test of the bottom. those bottoms are usually a long process.
Reminds me of the selloff's in February and April when people got pretty negative, but the pullback was modest, then the rally continued.
I think the full effects of the sequestor are being felt now causing people to think growth is slowing, plus people are worrying (too much in my onion) about tapering.
Once these get digested, we should be on our way up again.
FMD - I'm gonna eat my hat if this thing just keeps going up from here. There's just no f'in way I could be lucky enough to buy near a 52wk high and have it work out. Could be that's the mistake I've been making, not buying at new 52wk highs?
The big boys own these companies, right? They're not gonna take mercy on shareholders. Buy and hold the big boys if you want to play coal, not those entities which the big boys are attacking?
Sounds like the optical zoom digital camera is becoming a smartphone and MP3 player. They should throw a television in there as well, if they haven't already.
KOL - So look at the height of the April/May 2012 bear flagpole(notice the formation is bearflag) and add it to the last breakdown level(~$22.5 ?) and what target do you get?
Then you have to wait for the next flag to form and see if it's a bear or bull flag, right?
I agree with BB's take. I think the animal spirits will be back soon enough. Lots of fear being spread by traders that there is a potential calamity in one of the emerging markets. Which one, no one knows of course, but it just HAS to be some bank or hedge fund about to go bellyup.
Normally I would agree, but if the "Panda Express" indicator is saying sell, maybe we should just dump everything and go for a ride on a hindenburg indicator.
He pulled it. Maybe he thinks he can get out at $1.21 now. Such impatience! After all we are talking about a company trading less than book and cash and down 98% from highs.
There was a exhibit that was excluded from public disclosure back in 2010 and the SEC granted exclusion through 2015. It was Exhibit 10.38 which can be found here:
Here is the approval of exclusion by the SEC: http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1262279/999999999713001141/filename1.pdf
Here are the details of the agreement: "HIS PRIVATE STUDENT LOAN PROGRAM AGREEMENT (this “Agreement”) is made and dated as of February 5, 2010, by and between the Pennsylvania Higher Education Assistance Agency (d/b/a American Education Services), a public corporation and governmental instrumentality organized under the laws of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, 1200 North Seventh Street, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17102 (“Servicer”) and The First Marblehead Corporation, having an address at 800 Boylston Street, 34th Floor, Boston, Massachusetts 02199 (“FMC”)"
Well the above article talks about how the Pennsylvania HEAA is looking to securitize quite a bit of loans...see this article dated just a couple of weeks ago again: http://www.abalert.com/headlines.php?hid=180893
I'm not quite sure if FMD will be involved but I do see the Penn HEAA's move as an encouraging sign.
Thanks, good weekend reading. I'm really enjoying the cool dry clear weather following our steam bath + storm, so just kickin' back sucking it all in right now. Gonna be a beauty weekend.
Wow, that's all pretty complex. With BAC/Citi/CS all the same good ol' boys club involved, wonder if FMD might at least provide consulting services?
"The not-for-profit lender, also known as PHEAA, also wants to free up resources as it turns its attention to servicing government Direct Loans. “The auction rate-stuff is probably just [a distraction] for them, so it makes sense that they’d want to clean up as much of that as possible to concentrate on servicing Direct Loans,” one source said"
A couple of amazing charts showing, in context, the data from the most recent COT silver futures report are given in http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2013/06/gold-and-silver-disaggregated-cot-report-dcot-for-june-14.html
The first chart shows that the net long position in silver futures of swap dealers (4 or 5 large commercial banks, with JPM holding around 80% of contracts in this category) vaulted to 5-year high. Notice that the two previous peaks corresponded to the December 2011 and July 2012 major bottoms in silver. The Big Boyz know what they are doing. :)
The second chart combines swap dealers and producers and shows their combined net short position since 2000 (producers have to be short silver so as to hedge their revenue stream), and we see that this net short position is at an ALL-TIME LOW now as a percentage of the open interest. Notice that the two previous troughs in the net short position corresponded to the December 2011 and July 2012 major bottoms in silver. The producers, just like the Banksters, know when to take off their hedges. :)
Do you want to trade on the side of producers and swap dealers or do you want to trade against them? My bets are finally aligned with this crowd. :)
Going back to our conversation a few days ago about finding info to support your position, people who write a website called "gotgoldreport" are not the ones you want to listen to. You will have far more success reading stuff like T3D's report from Jeff Saut who did get people into gold and commodities back in the early 2000's, but also has now got them into stocks the last few years, which have obviously done much better.
Markets change and you need to read people who change with the markets.
That's a strange comment, BB. Do you think the info in the COT reports changes based on which web site gives a link to those reports?
You seem to be falling into the trap of following the prevailing mood regarding gold/silver. As Jesse recently pointed out, the fact that the public opinion on gold is at an all-time low and the small futures speculators went net short gold for the first time ever (while usually they are VERY long) implies that we MUST have a HUGE rebound rally soon EVEN IF gold is ultimately destined to drop below 1000. In the short/intermediate term, sentiment trumps fundamentals, and you don't want to be with the herd when the sentiment reaches unseen extremes, as it has now.
"But then, who could have predicted in 2011 that instead of a regular pullback in a long-term bull market we will make many ALL TIME LOW readings in various indicators?"
Assuming we are in a bear market for PM's, which is looking more and more likely, all these indicators will be unreliable. Stocks are definitely in a bull market - always best to look around for the easiest ways to make money in this difficult game.
A long-term bear market is never a straight line. The most violent rebound rallies happen during bear markets, and they start when everyone gets on one side of the boat.
Instead of us arguing whether the next major move in gold is going to be up or down, why don't we just trust the large US banks? They are only interested in making money for themselves. So why in the world would they go in their private accounts from net short gold to net long gold over the past month? The last time they were net long gold was in 2001-2003, in the early stages of the MAJOR bull market in gold. Why would gold producers remove their hedges almost completely now if indeed it was the case that they still had fat profit margins at the current price of gold and they believed that the mining industry will keep expanding the gold production at the current price? On the contrary, their actions are telling us that they believe the current pullback in the price of gold is not sustainable for the mining industry. Why presume that we know more than the people closest to the action, which speak loudly with their money?
"why in the world would they go in their private accounts from net short gold to net long gold over the past month?"
If by that you're referring to Large Traders, I don't see where they've gone long, looks more to me like they've been selling their long positions?
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1
As far as Commercials go, they've been closing their hedges(Judging by share price trend, perhaps their hedge was insufficient?) but that could reverse as it did in 3rd Q 2008? Only Large Traders seem to be net long?
Question: If inflation is PM bullish then why suggest negative real rates are also PM bullish? I had just one reply to this question, they suggested PM's rose while rates fell because of the ongoing BALANCE SHEET RECESSION.
So isn't it reasonable to expect inflation won't happen until the economy is overheating, and that's just not the case currently?
Just trying to objectively make sense out of the big picture and throw some ideas out there, some other unforeseen scenario might be the coming trend.
Which probably means we rally.
ReplyDeleteChickenpookie says: "The Sky Is Falling!"
ReplyDeleteWe need these shakeouts to keep confidence low, right? I like low prices, bring 'em on big boy! ;)
My largest fear currently is the storm visiting my area the next couple of days will screw my ability to buy into this pullback, like the last one that kept me from buying YRCW at $5.80....
DeleteThe storm begins with a Black Nikkei.
ReplyDeleteThat sounds kinky.
DeleteThat's b/c it is kinky, exotic kinky.
DeleteWay beyond kinky....
DeleteI'm buying a large position in Hitachi.
DeleteCan't find it in black....
http://www.walmart.com/ip/10910404?wmlspartner=wlpa&adid=22222222227000035369&wl0=&wl1=g&wl2=&wl3=13222950430&wl4=&wl5=pla&veh=sem
Not as kinky as Black FTSE.
DeleteSay what, John Mauldin lives in an apartment in Dallas? Anyway, I'm thinking nuclear power gets turned back on if Japan plans on selling Lexus' for the price of a Kia:
ReplyDelete"says he is planning to hedge his entire mortgage to Japan's weakening currency in hopes of paying for his new Dallas apartment.
"The country is dying. People are retiring," he says, adding that by the time "Abenomics" has run its course, "you'll be able to buy a Lexus cheaper than a Kia.""
OK, I need a link for this article!
DeleteHere's a link, plenty of hits on the goog and I already closed the tab but I'm pretty sure this is the one I was posting from:
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/am-hedging-entire-mortgage-yen-john-mauldin-160031514.html
Japan could be pushed to the point where it restructures and opens up its economy for immigration. They say the main problem with that is the pain felt at the individual level there still hasn't been that great.
DeleteProbably will work out well, but you still want to watch it to see what they really do over there.
So we open in the green.
ReplyDeleteSNTA- Good insider buying here.
ReplyDeleteInsiders own about 10mm shares, looks like, that'd be ~$40mm Like to see the chef eating his own food.
DeleteNES- That's about as far outside the BB as it gets.
ReplyDeleteOSH- Looks like it's going BK.
ReplyDeleteIf I had to shoot from the hip, I'd say SHLD must've seriously f'd OSH in the utube, they were doing great till SHLD bought them so WTF?. Could be a great opportunity, just don't know.
DeleteSimilar business model as TSCO, except TSCO offers considerably more in their stores.
Sure am glad 2nd finally brought the TGIBT! And I was thinking Fridays might be the replacement rally day....
ReplyDeleteARR- Give me my divy bitch!
ReplyDeleteThe wording on the PR was weird man. Why put "continues" in the headline? Is there skepticism that they wouldn't continue the dividend?
DeleteMan that is one huge dividend.
I added to FMD yesterday at $1.17 and $1.18. I also got my total shares in DRAM up to 10,000. I'm keeping this amount with the understanding that it could go to zero. However, the chart looks f*cking fantastic and I think has a decent chance of doing a moon shot.
ReplyDeleteLots of traders were bragging about being short last night / this morning.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.thestreet.com/story/11947206/1/cramers-mad-money-recap-time-to-change-gears.html
Delete"time to get defensive"
https://twitter.com/Ralph_Acampora
"Since the DJIA's high on May 28th we've seen failed rallies and very negative breadth. This current corrective phase in not over."
https://twitter.com/RedDogT3Live
"$spx futures down 8-10 handles rewarding some traders who were looking for downside follow thru to the past few sessions bearish action"
Little late to be getting defensive, hosed again!
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p82877132640
We shall see. My big picture take is still that people are way too cautious / skeptical to make this a top. Could be wrong but thats just how I feel. I do like that many long time bulls have gotten cautious. I think that's important because it will only fuel the upside when we get out of this correction as more people will be on the sidelines. if you think of it just in terms of a pool of potential buyers, I think the pool has gottne larger with people like James Paulsen, Jim Cramer, and even Ralph Acampora all suggesting near term weakness and not an ideal time to be buying. Many people consider them to be permabulls. If the market holds in here then I think there's a very good chance we see 1,700 within a month or two.
DeleteIf the selloff is over (and I think it is) I think one good thing to look at is which stocks have outperformed between today and a week or so ago when the market spiked down. I see that oil is holding up very well. I believe energy does well in a rising rate environment so maybe that's part of the outperformance?
DeleteHere at 1620 might be a better place to try a short.
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
ReplyDeleteLooks very bullish to me.
EGLE is the best play in my opinion. Setup is ideal right here. I went long again today.
stopped out on EAGLE where i should have been buying it
DeleteCARB - C&H breakout target is $16+
ReplyDeleteSEP - Rising channel from 2008; Top of channel resistance is around $48, right? $36+5 is $41, so current pennant target is $41+
ReplyDeleteSEP:S&P C&H carving out a bottom(suggest pulling up a 5yr chart to see this illustrated):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SEP:$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p56799348713
FMD - Having trouble finding characteristics to dislike concerning the weekly chart, need some help.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't a pullback to ~$1 in about the next 4 weeks help to form the right shoulder of the IH&S with head in December? The IH&S target would be ~$1.90
Wonder if the dividend ever gets reinstated, say maybe $0.08/Q, that would be something like a 25% annual dividend at today's share price, right? I think I need to at least double my position if FMD successfully retests $1
F*cking a my post got deleted. Good observation on the weekly chart. Div reinstated? A lot needs to happen before that like getting back into securitization market and getting new lending partners. if either happens could see a nice pop. if both happens could see a parabolic move higher. i like the downside buffer with cash/book value about 50% higher than market cap.
Deletethere's a big seller out there that has been pressuring the stock for a few days...roughly 100k shares on the ASK.
He's one patient SOB, that's for sure. Wonder who it is....
DeleteLooking over the daily chart, a pullback to the 200SMA should put price right around that $1 level.
DeleteAdd TBT back at 69.32
ReplyDeleteDoubled Redf at 2.67
Playing the Bounce - Where the hell has our specialist disappeared to?
ReplyDeleteI feel like the dealer is feeding me cards and the waitress is plying me with free drinks.
ReplyDeleteWas lucky to be watching DRAM as it popped to 4.75 so took some partial profits. Hard to ignore a 21% move in minutes. I know it's a bounce off the 50 but it's just too easy.
You know the dealer's on your side when he keeps slipping you all the aces.
DeleteI am getting ready to put a sell order in at $10. Hoping the dealer fills it today.
DeleteHere's why I'm thinking $10 or more - this is from their quarterly report in late March:
Delete"Since the close of our third quarter on January 31, 2013 we have seen an increase in pricing which can positively impact our memory business for the balance of the fiscal year and beyond.”
Mr. Freeman concluded, “In addition to a healthier semiconductor industry, we continue to develop and expand our relationship with Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., which together with our RAMDisk agreement and other new opportunities we are currently pursuing should provide new sources of revenue, profit and growth for Dataram in 2013 and beyond. ”"
Should be at least the flag pole height added to the pennant breakout price.
DeleteTZA 31.25
ReplyDeleteHELL (The Borowitz Report)—Word that the News Corporation chief executive Rupert Murdoch has filed for divorce from his wife, Wendi Deng, came as a “total surprise” to longtime Murdoch confidant Satan, the Lord of the Underworld said today.
ReplyDelete“I am totally blindsided by this,” Satan told reporters. “He and I talk every day.”
Citing his long history with the media titan, the Hound of Hell said, “We go way back. I gave him the idea for Fox News. I told him to hire Roger Ailes. That’s why this is such a shock.”
A frequent dining companion of the Murdochs, Satan said he “didn’t have a clue that they were having problems.”
“I’ve had dozens of dinners with them in the Hamptons,” he said. “Did they bicker? No more than other couples. But they seemed to be on the same page about all the important things, like creating corrupt media monopolies and buying politicians. I thought they were for keeps.”
Adding that he “cares deeply about his friends,” Satan said the news about the Murdochs had hit him especially hard: “I was just starting to get over the Putins.”
The Prince of Darkness said he first got word of the Murdoch divorce about an hour before the official announcement: “My banker at Goldman Sachs called and told me to sell my News Corp. stock right away.”
S&P 500 up 5 pts in June
ReplyDeleteClosed above 1634 resistance.
ReplyDeleteBV - Something smells fishy.
ReplyDeleteSNTA - Sleigh stuck in a drift?
ReplyDeleteFSLR - Volume 2.6x
ReplyDeleteThe story of my day:
ReplyDeleteMe: Good morning! I'd like to confirm the following re my accounts: RYWVX (Rydex Emerging Markets 2x) has two trading 'windows' each day, 1030 am and 345 pm. Should I decide to open a position prior to the 1030 am window, will I be allowed to close the position (ie, will the trade have 'settled') prior to the 345 pm window?
Rep: Please allow me just a moment to review that fund for you.
Rep; Thank you for your patience. Our system indicates that this fund closes trading at 3:45 with a one business day settlement period. Give me just a few more moments to verify this with another resource.
Me: OK. Take your time. It's obviously a critical point!
Rep: Thank you for your patience. The fund does have a 1030 and a 1545 cutoff, so you could buy shares during either window. There is a one business day settlement period on the purchase so you could not sell the shares in the afternoon if you purchased them in the morning. In addition, this fund is part of our funds network, so there is no commission or load to purchase the fund; however, if you sell shares within 60 days of purchase, an online fee of $75 would be applied to the sale. Please keep in mind that mutual funds are not intended to be actively traded. If this is your intention, you may want to research ETFs with similar objectives.
Me: Understood. One additional clarification of the 'one day settlement.' Would opening a position at 1545 today qualify for close at 1030 tomorrow (ie, less than 24 hours, but still 'one business day')?
Rep: Yes, but keep in mind the fee still applies.
After the global rout last night, I wasn't about to open a position in a leveraged fund without being able to close the same day.
ReplyDeleteWhy didn't I just trade EEM? That's the psychological downside to human nature. Once I 'gave up' on RYWVX, I kind of said '---- it' to EEM as well. No excuse- I should have opened EEM.
Delete"Why didn't I just trade EEM?"
DeleteI like PIE myself, maybe b/c Jesse does but it looks good. The trick is catching the cycle low and I'm counting on you to help nail it.
I need to increase my position size.
ReplyDeleteI'd like to see follow through tomorrow, a close which exceeds the opening price would be nice to see.
ReplyDeleteHi.Via my couch.
ReplyDeleteI have a large American car I call my rolling couch.
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/quote/BDIY:IND/chart
ReplyDeleteEGLE
OK, what's intersting about this chart?
DeleteIf E&P's are selling, does that suggest they anticipate lower prices?
DeleteYep. They are looking to raise cash. He thinks some of the really small guys will still go 'poof'.
Delete* Micron Technology, Inc: Factoring in Elpida M&A fully: PO up to $18, estimates up too.
ReplyDelete* KMT released its trailing 3-month order rate for May. Organic order rates declined 7% vs -8% in April. The May order rate indicates industrial activity is broadly in line with the prior 2 months.
* Agricultural Chemicals: April showers bring strong May potash shipments in NA
DD - Buy -> Neut
ReplyDeletemREIT's - LOL, what happened to our crash, I was looking to put some more cash to work...
ReplyDeleteSold 1/3 of the CHSCP up .25 cents after it payed the .50 cent Divi. (75 cent gain). It is amazing how hard this stock works to support that divi every quarter. So sitting with 600 shares for now.
ReplyDeleteIs it mostly fertilizer products? Seems like they cover about all of AG production sphere.
DeleteIs that head of continuation IH&S in December? Seems to suggest $35.5
This PNF suggests $40, but I've found it's often not a very well tuned or reliable mechanism:
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=chscp,pepmdanrbr&pnf=y
Hammer on weekly bears watching.
DeletegOSH - Looks like they lost confidence.
ReplyDeleteLooks like I also triggered a CECO 2.89 again
ReplyDeleteTook the TZA off @ 31.50
ReplyDeleteNot red, not green today's Butterbean day:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IxsETNNSEeI
I won't pretend to know what's happening in the markets today.
ReplyDeleteWe're going to get choppiness for a while I think. My guess is this month ends around where it started.
Delete"I won't pretend... today" Huh???
DeleteUmm, not sure precisely how that might be interpreted! ;)
My point in bringing up the baltic dry index is it sure looks like it's coming out of a depression like base. If that happens and if it can begin a new bull market, then you need to consider the following:
ReplyDelete(1) Many companies are operating at positive free cash flow right now. The bulk of their income statement losses come from deprec on the ships.
(2) While its true that these companies aren't marking the value of their ships to the current market value, you have to understand that the current market value is so ridiculously depressed that it's irrational to do so. This would be no different than banks having to mark their mortgages to values in March 2009 at a time when there was practically no market for them.
(3) If the baltic dry index begins to ascend into a new bull market, then the issues relating to #2 above will go away because the higher the spot rates, then the higher the value of the ships.
Having said all of this I did sell on the pop at the open but I'm still looking at this space from the bull side.
Plus Wilbur Ross makes a pretty compelling argument about the dynamics of the shipping market and why it will turn in the next couple of years.
DeleteGood time to be buying for a few year hold. Well, may be better to get a pullback, but I think stock prices are much closer to their bottoms than tops.
which one of you cats took out the dude at $1.19?
ReplyDeleteCurrently in bull territory, I have a feeling he's still there though.
DeleteSan Diego day here today, cool dry air from Canada is nice, windows open and AC off.
ReplyDeleteNo sweat, literally.
Last 1/3 of WLT stopped out today. That was a fun ride. Gave it a wide birth. Should have followed TOF out the gate early. What a cluster fuck
ReplyDeleteholy shit. wtf. we should have been shorting that thing.
Deletelesson there is to wait for a break above the weekly moving averages and a new high, followed by a successful test of the bottom. those bottoms are usually a long process.
DeleteSheesh, call the FD......
Delete"wait for a break above the weekly moving averages and a new high,"
DeleteI might consider it at a new 52wk high.
I really f'd that trade up twice. My two worst trades for 2013 are in WLT. I usually dont let them get away. Guilty twice on that one. Paid the price.
DeleteWill someone please give sellers at least two consecutive days off?
ReplyDeleteReminds me of the selloff's in February and April when people got pretty negative, but the pullback was modest, then the rally continued.
ReplyDeleteI think the full effects of the sequestor are being felt now causing people to think growth is slowing, plus people are worrying (too much in my onion) about tapering.
Once these get digested, we should be on our way up again.
I don't know BB...The Panda Express I'm eating at is suspiciously quite.
Delete"The Panda Express I'm eating at is suspiciously quite."
DeleteThat's b/c they were all hiding in Treasuries? ;)
Coal - Cheaper than a crack whore and just as dirty.
ReplyDeleteSee if these guys were smart they'd be saying something like: "Nothing to worry over, probably just producers hedging their production."
DeleteSRS - Speaking of hedging, should we be using this one to hedge against a possible fall in mREIT book value?
ReplyDeleteFMD - I'm gonna eat my hat if this thing just keeps going up from here. There's just no f'in way I could be lucky enough to buy near a 52wk high and have it work out. Could be that's the mistake I've been making, not buying at new 52wk highs?
ReplyDeleteWLT - See this is how the debt game is played, the lenders short the stock then pull the loan or change the terms:
ReplyDelete"•Walter Declines After Forbes Says $1.55 Billion Loan Canceled at Bloomberg(Fri 1:55PM EDT)"
The big boys own these companies, right? They're not gonna take mercy on shareholders. Buy and hold the big boys if you want to play coal, not those entities which the big boys are attacking?
DeleteI don't own any, but NOK has been holding up nicely lately.
ReplyDeleteSounds like the optical zoom digital camera is becoming a smartphone and MP3 player. They should throw a television in there as well, if they haven't already.
DeleteKOL - So look at the height of the April/May 2012 bear flagpole(notice the formation is bearflag) and add it to the last breakdown level(~$22.5 ?) and what target do you get?
ReplyDeleteThen you have to wait for the next flag to form and see if it's a bear or bull flag, right?
I agree with BB's take. I think the animal spirits will be back soon enough. Lots of fear being spread by traders that there is a potential calamity in one of the emerging markets. Which one, no one knows of course, but it just HAS to be some bank or hedge fund about to go bellyup.
ReplyDeleteLike we haven't heard this before.
Normally I would agree, but if the "Panda Express" indicator is saying sell, maybe we should just dump everything and go for a ride on a hindenburg indicator.
DeleteWell, if something has gone wrong we'll be the last to know and the first to take the hit so it's probably done. Brazil has been hit hard lately.
DeleteCP - EXACTLY. If anything fear should be bought.
DeleteWhat the hell is Barry doing eating Panda Express? Doesn't jive with the healthy lifestyle he leads. Although I guess they don't add MSG right?
FMD - Aha now i get it. The dude just rolled up his shares to $1.20. 50k shares on the ask now.
ReplyDeleteHe pulled it. Maybe he thinks he can get out at $1.21 now. Such impatience! After all we are talking about a company trading less than book and cash and down 98% from highs.
DeleteWonder how much he plans on getting rid of, he probably loaded up near the bottom.
DeleteJeff Saut & Scott Brown: Characteristics of Market Breakouts From Big Bases
ReplyDeleteRead more: http://www.marketfolly.com/2013/06/jeff-saut-scott-brown-characteristics.html#ixzz2WDotLPai
Thanks T3. Interesting to see the old charts on a monthly basis. Yahoo used to have the Dow back to 1927 which was useful but they no longer do
DeleteWhat the heck is wrong with PE? My lunch is 680 calories.
ReplyDeleteStir-fried tofu + broccoli over steamed rice wouldn't do it for me.
DeletePanda paw soup, noodles with fish and a super salad?
Deletehttp://www.abalert.com/headlines.php?hid=180893
ReplyDeletewhile this is non the private issued loans it does signal strength in the securitization market in my opinion.
Found some interesting info on FMD...
DeleteThere was a exhibit that was excluded from public disclosure back in 2010 and the SEC granted exclusion through 2015. It was Exhibit 10.38 which can be found here:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1262279/000104746910009905/a2201079zex-10_38.htm
Here is the approval of exclusion by the SEC:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1262279/999999999713001141/filename1.pdf
Here are the details of the agreement:
"HIS PRIVATE STUDENT LOAN PROGRAM AGREEMENT (this “Agreement”) is made and dated as of February 5, 2010, by and between the Pennsylvania Higher Education Assistance Agency (d/b/a American Education Services), a public corporation and governmental instrumentality organized under the laws of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, 1200 North Seventh Street, Harrisburg, Pennsylvania 17102 (“Servicer”) and The First Marblehead Corporation, having an address at 800 Boylston Street, 34th Floor, Boston, Massachusetts 02199 (“FMC”)"
Well the above article talks about how the Pennsylvania HEAA is looking to securitize quite a bit of loans...see this article dated just a couple of weeks ago again:
http://www.abalert.com/headlines.php?hid=180893
I'm not quite sure if FMD will be involved but I do see the Penn HEAA's move as an encouraging sign.
Thanks, good weekend reading. I'm really enjoying the cool dry clear weather following our steam bath + storm, so just kickin' back sucking it all in right now. Gonna be a beauty weekend.
DeleteWow, that's all pretty complex. With BAC/Citi/CS all the same good ol' boys club involved, wonder if FMD might at least provide consulting services?
Delete"The not-for-profit lender, also known as PHEAA, also wants to free up resources as it turns its attention to servicing government Direct Loans. “The auction rate-stuff is probably just [a distraction] for them, so it makes sense that they’d want to clean up as much of that as possible to concentrate on servicing Direct Loans,” one source said"
Just tossed back a couple of Guinness. Nice way to end the week.
ReplyDeleteOnly a couple? Wuss.
DeleteA couple of Guinness are the perfect chaser for a 12 pack of Pabst.
DeleteA couple of amazing charts showing, in context, the data from the most recent COT silver futures report are given in http://www.gotgoldreport.com/2013/06/gold-and-silver-disaggregated-cot-report-dcot-for-june-14.html
ReplyDeleteThe first chart shows that the net long position in silver futures of swap dealers (4 or 5 large commercial banks, with JPM holding around 80% of contracts in this category) vaulted to 5-year high. Notice that the two previous peaks corresponded to the December 2011 and July 2012 major bottoms in silver. The Big Boyz know what they are doing. :)
The second chart combines swap dealers and producers and shows their combined net short position since 2000 (producers have to be short silver so as to hedge their revenue stream), and we see that this net short position is at an ALL-TIME LOW now as a percentage of the open interest. Notice that the two previous troughs in the net short position corresponded to the December 2011 and July 2012 major bottoms in silver. The producers, just like the Banksters, know when to take off their hedges. :)
Do you want to trade on the side of producers and swap dealers or do you want to trade against them? My bets are finally aligned with this crowd. :)
David,
DeleteGoing back to our conversation a few days ago about finding info to support your position, people who write a website called "gotgoldreport" are not the ones you want to listen to. You will have far more success reading stuff like T3D's report from Jeff Saut who did get people into gold and commodities back in the early 2000's, but also has now got them into stocks the last few years, which have obviously done much better.
Markets change and you need to read people who change with the markets.
That's a strange comment, BB. Do you think the info in the COT reports changes based on which web site gives a link to those reports?
DeleteYou seem to be falling into the trap of following the prevailing mood regarding gold/silver. As Jesse recently pointed out, the fact that the public opinion on gold is at an all-time low and the small futures speculators went net short gold for the first time ever (while usually they are VERY long) implies that we MUST have a HUGE rebound rally soon EVEN IF gold is ultimately destined to drop below 1000. In the short/intermediate term, sentiment trumps fundamentals, and you don't want to be with the herd when the sentiment reaches unseen extremes, as it has now.
"But then, who could have predicted in 2011 that instead of a regular pullback in a long-term bull market we will make many ALL TIME LOW readings in various indicators?"
DeleteAssuming we are in a bear market for PM's, which is looking more and more likely, all these indicators will be unreliable. Stocks are definitely in a bull market - always best to look around for the easiest ways to make money in this difficult game.
A long-term bear market is never a straight line. The most violent rebound rallies happen during bear markets, and they start when everyone gets on one side of the boat.
DeleteInstead of us arguing whether the next major move in gold is going to be up or down, why don't we just trust the large US banks? They are only interested in making money for themselves. So why in the world would they go in their private accounts from net short gold to net long gold over the past month? The last time they were net long gold was in 2001-2003, in the early stages of the MAJOR bull market in gold. Why would gold producers remove their hedges almost completely now if indeed it was the case that they still had fat profit margins at the current price of gold and they believed that the mining industry will keep expanding the gold production at the current price? On the contrary, their actions are telling us that they believe the current pullback in the price of gold is not sustainable for the mining industry. Why presume that we know more than the people closest to the action, which speak loudly with their money?
DeleteAll good points, David.
Delete"why in the world would they go in their private accounts from net short gold to net long gold over the past month?"
If by that you're referring to Large Traders, I don't see where they've gone long, looks more to me like they've been selling their long positions?
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1
As far as Commercials go, they've been closing their hedges(Judging by share price trend, perhaps their hedge was insufficient?) but that could reverse as it did in 3rd Q 2008? Only Large Traders seem to be net long?
Question: If inflation is PM bullish then why suggest negative real rates are also PM bullish? I had just one reply to this question, they suggested PM's rose while rates fell because of the ongoing BALANCE SHEET RECESSION.
DeleteSo isn't it reasonable to expect inflation won't happen until the economy is overheating, and that's just not the case currently?
Just trying to objectively make sense out of the big picture and throw some ideas out there, some other unforeseen scenario might be the coming trend.
Why is it that we seem to have trouble reading the cot report? Or at least making sense of it? Is that perhaps international?
DeleteHere's Harvey Organ's COT report, FWIW:
Deletehttp://harveyorgan.blogspot.com/
FMAR - Will this one reach $3.25 this week? Flag pole looks to be $1.25, added to $2 suggests $3.25
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