Tuesday, July 9, 2013
07/09/13 Path Of Thorns
We've all walked this path. The SPX continues to climb toward 1700 without more than brief pullbacks that challenge sidelined investors who wish to board. We'll hear at some point the market is overbought, which then of course becomes 'even more overbought.' As the index crests 1700, shorts will drive it towards 1719, only to watch it recede back to 1650 as buyers take five. At some point in time (clear only to technical analysts in retrospect) the SPX will reverse hard, either intraday (usually around 345 pm est) or in the overnight futures market, ensuring little to no participation by market timers. It then rallies quickly over several weeks to 1800, allowing the media to play 'Summer Rally' headlines during the slow month of August.
There are two ways to play it. Well, one way to 'play' it, and one way to participate without trying. Ride the train to 1700+ and disembark, then (attempt to) buy cheap(er) tickets around 1650. Or sit back in the La-Z-Boy and read a good book.
If we do see 1800 by August, then a correction looms after Labor Day. Which then propels the SPX to 1900 by year's end.
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Sing it sister!
ReplyDeleteI wonder how much money has been lost trying to time pullbacks this year. They've been sudden and mostly small and rebounded quickly - this year has almost certainly rewarded the buy and hold types more than most traders.
ReplyDeleteI contributed my share.
DeleteSo don't nobody aks for no mo.'
DeleteWent golfing with my gold bug friends today.
ReplyDeleteThe hard core guy is buying more in the $1,200's and thinks it goes much higher.
The soft gold bug, I've actually convinced to buy some stocks. He's not selling any gold, and thinks it's probably a good time to buy here, but at least now realizes some of the risks of having 80% of your investments in 1 asset, so is diversifying.
So, extrapolating this, I think that it means that the stock market rally is starting to broaden out to the more general public from just the hard core investor types as we transition from the non-belief phase of the rally to the it's OK to invest phase. I think we should start to see more positive sentiment numbers, but that we are still far, far away from the euphoria stage of the rally that will likely preceed the next bear.
Speaking of goldbugs, has anyone heard from David lately?
ReplyDeleteHope he is doing alright.
Buying an "overbought" market has been a winning strategy as well, all the way from 666.....
ReplyDeleteOh, and financials have done quite well, too.
FMD - The PNF price objective has changed again, to $2.27
ReplyDelete#1 cause of prison overcrowding is the NFL
ReplyDelete"I wonder how much money has been lost trying to time pullbacks this year. They've been sudden and mostly small and rebounded quickly - this year has almost certainly rewarded the buy and hold types more than most traders."
ReplyDeleteBB - I think the bigger issue this year isn't trying to time pullbacks...it's selling too early. I've personally had a great year but have missed out on ENORMOUS gains by selling too early. Four stocks I had big gains in that I sold too early were SNE, OWW, YRCW and CECO. I came into this year with the mindset think that this is the year to buy and hold but I ignored my mindset. The issue is we're all conditioned to take profits quickly rather than buy and hold because that's the way it has worked for 14 years. Well, this has clearly changed. In fact, I think it changed after the middle of last year.
this is part of the reason i'm still holding NOK. i'm hoping that the majority of investors haven't come to this conclusion yet.
DeleteThat is the other way to look at it. Buy stocks which have a lot of upside (through valuation, business restructuring, growth, etc.) and just sit it on it and wait for it to grow. Ignore the short term gyrations. In my opinion, the key is in understanding the true value to give yourself the conviction to do this. That is why I like buying cheap stocks with the value to act as the support and target.
DeleteMark - Have you talked to David?
ReplyDeleteJust shot him an email.
Deletei can't get this video out of my head:
ReplyDeletehttp://vimeo.com/64611906
I gave up trying to time the zigs and zags. I buy a full position on my patterns, take partial profits at the price target and let the rest ride.
ReplyDeleteSure I throw in a day trade or a swing trade once in awhile, but the big gains are made over the long haul. You have to be willing to take a little pain sometimes.
man i love this guy:
ReplyDeletehttp://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000181745
Folks, I am checking in at Mark's request, so that you will see that I am still alive. :)
ReplyDeleteEver since I attended my first Vipassana (traditional Buddhist meditation, which consists of impartially observing what is happening inside the body and inside the mind) retreat in 1999, I felt that that was the path for me to follow. However, 7 years ago I got derailed from that path by investing some money into the stock market. I tried to break myself away from it several times, but my mind was stronger than the soft intuitive suggestions coming from my consciousness, and I couldn't do it. Well, the ONE consciousness of the world decided to help me on my path toward Awakening, and an idea appeared in the heads of the Golden Minerals board of directors that they should stop the production at Velardena, thereby rendering my October call options worthless and effectively reducing my capital to 0 (not counting the worthless shares of PNPFF I am still holding and GDXJ/GDX calls, which will probably end up being worthless too). Since mid-2012 I started getting the feeling that the absurd collapse of PM miners in the midst of the largest ever money printing campaign by US is too incredible of an event to appear as a random coincidence of market forces. The total crash of gold/silver after the announcement of QE4-ever and a simultaneous sequence of incredible problems that surfaced with AUMN had sealed my conviction in this being a clear sign for me – GET OUT OF THE MARKET. It would be silly for me to ignore such a clear sign.
To make this choice easier for me, a few days after the Golden Minerals announcement, I have finally awakened to my true nature (with the help of the talks by an enlightened Zen teacher Adyashanti) and saw, convincingly, that all the thoughts and desires that arise in my head have nothing to do with me. In fact, THERE IS NO such a thing as ME that I can put my finger on. When I look carefully at what is present between my thoughts, I see only pure awareness, and it is this awareness that gives me the sense of a constant Self. The thoughts can come and go, but the feeling of presence is very constant. In fact, it is THE SAME as it was 10 years ago, 20 years ago, etc. Nothing can touch that feeling of presence, nothing can threaten it. It doesn't need anything for itself either, and it doesn't have ANY beliefs, it doesn't know ANYTHING except that it exists. And this pure awareness, which is always there for anyone who cares to look, IS our enlightened true nature. Here is a 4-minute excerpt from Adyashanti where he explains it clearly in a Q&A session:
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/108909812/Awakening%20is%20the%20discovery%20of%20what%20you%20are.mp3
I have also pieced together several excerpts from Adyashanti, where he is explaining that there is no “I” that can be found in the mind outside of fleeting thoughts and beliefs. The only real FEELING of “I” we get is from pure awareness (consciousness).
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/108909812/The%20illusionary%20nature%20of%20Self.mp3
So, folks, I am switching paths now and getting back to the true path my heart is calling for. Actually, it is not a path, since I (and everyone else) was always “there” already. It was just a matter of asking myself, once, honestly: “where does my FEELING of self come from?” and trying to FEEL the answer, rather than invent a story in the mind about it.
ReplyDeleteThere is still a choice now to BE that true self, the pure awareness, or to believe the desires that arise in the mind and live as a slave to those desires (which the mind will always keep generating, so that this slavery will NEVER end). I made a choice of not living as a slave to constantly changing desires, and instead living according to my true nature, as pure clean consciousness inside which all phenomena arise, finding motivations for actions from the soft intuitive suggestions that come from the consciousness about what would bring the most harmony and love to the world in the field of awareness. Apparently, that consciousness doesn't care about having more money (or more of anything for that matter, as it is totally fine with what IS, with what is currently happening), and so there is no sense for me to still do anything in the market. My wife is fully on board with me, and she also realizes that we, as a family, don't need more of anything to be happy. We just need not to be derailed by crazy egocentric projects, such as proving to our egos or to other egos that we can beat the market.
Good luck with your portfolios, folks. If anyone wants to contact me, feel free to drop me a line at dive1734@yahoo.com.
Congrats David on getting through to this self-discovery. I'm sure you will be much happier and healthier and a better person for doing so!
DeleteDavid, I hope that you will still visit DT from time to time, and share your thoughts. Till then, be happy and I wish you and yours the best! ;)
DeleteDavid- You have a preexisting belief in a higher path, along with an understanding/loving wife and family. You also have a great job, and the 'promise' of youth. Add to that unfailing optimism, and I can see how you've not only survived the experience, you've used it to your advantage.
ReplyDelete7 years ago would have been 2006, so I've 'heard from you' through it all. 7 years in the capital markets, of course, is nothing when you're young. You will still need a portfolio in order to plan the rest of your life, so remain on board.
"We feel money and power can bring happiness and solve problems, but they are not definite causes of those desired states. If that were so, it would follow that those who have wealth would necessarily have happiness, and those who do not have wealth would always experience suffering. Money and power facilitate, but it is clear that they are not the primary causes of, happiness and solving our problems. It is justified for us to make material and financial development for building our nation and providing shelter, etc. for ourselves; we need to do that. But we also need to seek inner development. As we can see, there are many people who have wealth and power who remain unhappy, due to which their health declines, and they are always taking medicines. On the other hand, we find people who live like beggars but who always remain peaceful and happy.
DeleteTherefore, in our daily life a certain way of thinking makes us happy, and a certain way of thinking makes us unhappy. In other words, there are certain states of mind which bring us problems, and they can be removed; we need to make an effort in that direction. Likewise, there are certain states of mind that bring us peace and happiness, and we need to cultivate and enhance them."
--from Generous Wisdom: Commentaries by H.H. the Dalai Lama XIV on the Jatakamala
Life is complicated. It isn't one thing or another, it's all of life at once. Life is a juggling act.
Gold - comments from Jim Rogers (posted by Bull Hunter on BC site) ...
ReplyDelete“Now what caused it to finally go down, and as much as I love India and Indians, they are the largest buyers of gold in the world. And India has a huge balance of trade deficit. The largest drivers are oil and gold. You can’t do anything about oil so the Indian politicians are blaming their problems on gold. And they’ve taken many measures, and more measures are coming to diminish or even eliminate the import of gold. I’m not the only person who saw that. They’ve been pretty loud about it.
That was the main catalyst or the straw which broke the camel’s back which made gold start going down finally, after 12 years of going up. And the foundation had been built for over 20 years and many, many fundamental things came together. But then after 12 years of a bull market more mines started opening, more gold mines were formed and then the Indians said, among others, but mainly the Indians said we’re going to stop all this.
And by the way the French have also recently come out with measures that you cannot buy more than, anything, in cash for more than €1000, to limit the purchase of gold. The Germans are also taking measures to make it more difficult to buy and sell gold. So you have a lot of governments coming together with measures against gold and silver, but especially the Indians. And the Indians are the largest buyers.”
~ Jim Rogers
German repatriation of gold only serves to enable the hopes of gold bugs, Germany should sell/donate it to those who need it for cultural reasons.
DeleteIt could be argued gold has no place in the global banking system?
Seems it's just another 'safety' trade (like treasuries) that they're trying to squash.
DeleteOur job is to see where the next bubble is. It's a moving target.
DeleteEWW - How about Mexico, fellas?
ReplyDeleteUGA - Wow, gasoline is really shooting up. Why aren't I surprised, I knew I'd never see $0.25/gal ever again? ;)
ReplyDeleteDitto for oil, don't you guys think the big boys are gonna start selling oil soon?
DeleteI'm amazed how many people on TV and the internet misread oil.
DeleteSure, oil has hit $105 in the near month contract, but take a look out a couple of years. It's gone down if anything. The bumps in oil due to political turmoil don't affect things longer term. What we really want to see to start investing aggressively in oil is the forward futures market rising.
For example, see:
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3028.html?category=Energy&subcategory=Petroleum&contract=Crude%252520Light%252520Oil%252520Comp.%252520-%252520nymex&catandsubcat=Energy%257CPetroleum&contractset=Crude%252520Light%252520Oil%252520Comp.%252520-%252520nymex
Before the recent run, Brandt thought initially that oil could run to the $140's but changed his mind and decided it was going lower to $65.
DeleteSo maybe oil will run up into the low hundreds then crash back down again?
I was thinking of shorting oil.
SCO just seems like a bitch to trade.
DeleteThat could be an interesting trade - when you've got such a big spread in the futures, either the near term futures drop or the long ones rise. I would assume vehicles like SCO trade current month futures, but you've got to look into to make sure - a lot of these commodity ETF's do no give you what you'd expect.
DeleteSCO - Not a bitch if it moves in your favor? ;)
DeleteHey David- Thanks for checking in. 2nds right. I'll stay in touch.
ReplyDeleteHas something happened to AUMN that I'm not aware of? According to my understanding they shut down production.
DeleteIf China were expanding resource mining in Mongolia, the move would be negative for metals prices in general as Chinese demand is satisfied by Mongolian production?
More supply is always bad for a commodity price.
DeleteMongolian supply may also play a part in lower coal prices. I haven't heard much detail on this subject, doesn't seem to appear in the thesis of coal longs for some reason.....
DeleteCrappy data from China, or so they say, and FCX is up. Might be something there.
ReplyDeleteProbably can't really trust Chinese data, could be nearing a low though assuming Europe is swinging to the upside?
DeleteMy belief is, at some point markets really begin gaining impressive steam.
In hindsight it is easy to curse the early exit on a missed opportunity. However, it a lot easier to curse the late exit on a loser. My portfolio has had far more damage on failure to follow the stops that should have been placed.
ReplyDeleteEasy to sit here and armchair QB stocks like YRCW....but in reality they were big winners even if we did miss 200% more upside.
Yes, which is why I have no intention of selling FMD anytime soon and would look forward to a pullback to $1 or lower.
DeleteIsn't Bernanke on the podium today? That might create some near-future opportunity....?
FMD has gotten away from me for 15 cents. Might have to get a core bought higher today. CECO really got away. Might just have to wait on that and be punished.
DeleteMeanwhile you may find another wave to surf. I'm interested in other stuff too, like SCO for instance.
Delete"curse the late exit on a loser."
DeleteIn my case, that would be SVM at my entry around $9, and BAC just before it fell to $3. Both of these ideas I followed someone else that I now realize doesn't use logical discipline while generating a robust thesis.
Who needs enemies?
Spitzer, Winner, et all...Why can't these f*&%$^&$ guys just stay way. And more importantly why do these idiots vote them back in. Unreal.
ReplyDeleteNew York.......
DeleteI like Spitzer.
DeleteWhat are your guys thoughts for price Re entry into CECO and FMD. These two definitely got outside my trading channels? I wanna be on board.
ReplyDelete$1.29 add for FMD. CECO if it can get back down below the $3.20ish area. That's just off the top of my head.
DeleteYou know, David MUST be a really good guy. I've never met him but I know we all care about one another or we wouldn't be here.
ReplyDeleteA while back we had a pretty serious discussion about what David was doing in the markets, his obsession with one sector out of hundreds, his fixation on what "MUST" happen if such and such was happening, his buying and selling options, etc etc.
As a person that has dealt with and seen his share of addictions, I feel the need to comment in as positive way as I can.
Addictions take many forms. From hording, collecting, obsessive habits like hand washing, gambling, drinking, drugs, religion, etc etc.
Name the behavior and there is someone taking it too far, damaging their lives or other's lives, and not being able to extract themselves or seek some sort of balance.
Collecting, hand washing, drinking, drugs (some), gambling, religion and investing can be fun and rewarding activities if they are done within reason and some idea of risk control.
When I read what has happened over the last years with David, it takes on the look of addictive behavior with swings between one extreme and the other and equally extreme justifications. I think Jesse did his best to try to provide some perspective and so did 2nd.
I wish David had the ability to see what Jesse and 2nd were trying to say and to control his addictive impulses and let's face it, they were addictive impulses. If he were into opiates or drinking on that level I hope we would have seen the need to do something to help him see it and seek help. I think most of us made some effort to help him see there are hundreds of sectors and thousands of stocks with prices going UP. Clearly that wasn't what it was about. In my opinion it was about speculation, gambling and addiction.
I truly hope David is able to find happiness and balance in his life, but we should all learn something from his experience. I know I have.
I agree for the most part CC. The market is a very mean beast and if you are unwilling to be flexible in your thinking it can burn you mightily. I'm happy to hear that you're willing to move on David. Best of luck to you.
DeleteFMD Started at Buy with $2.00 price target from Compass Point per my Think or Swim App.
ReplyDelete"Compass Point initiates coverage on First Marblehead Corporation (The) (NYSE: FMD) with a Buy rating and a $2.00 price target." I don't really know much about these guys and their track record:
http://www.compasspointllc.com/
Only $2? Wonder what they're thinking..... I see it as either considerably more than $10 or valued at cash as long as the cash burn stretches into the future(more of the same). Anything much more than cash is speculation that the company will begin to return a profit somehow?
DeleteTomorrow just feels like a big move higher no?
ReplyDeleteThey've tried taking the indexes down several times this year, unsuccessfully. The only option remaining is to spike it up. So I agree.
DeleteI just turned on Fast Money for 1st time in a little while...man everyone is still skeptical. Funny stuff man.
ReplyDeletewtf> DJIA futes are up 100 points...
ReplyDeleteYou could be right, tof. We may even see the DJIA and SPX join the Russell 2000 at new highs for the year by the end of the week.
DeleteComments made by Ben Bernanke at a conference after the close of trading has index futures spiking. DJIA futes initially +57, now +100. Decent odds global markets spike up across the board overnight, resulting in a +1-2% gap up in US indexes on Thursday. There is nothing mutual fund investors can do until Thursday's close, at which point they'll be chasing the train. More often than not, gains in the stock market will occur while traders' hands are tied. Of course, if their hands are tied to a buy-and-hold strategy, then it's not a problem.
Deletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/yum-shares-rise-after-hours-on-results-2013-07-10?dist=tbeforebell
I feel it too TOF. The molly rocket GMO is taking off for .02 tomorrow!
ReplyDeleteIt seems to me, the FED has bought quite a lot of high-priced treasury debt, that's definitely a buy and hold strategy.
ReplyDeleteJeez futures are on fire.
ReplyDeleteOGRe alert.
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking the same thing... Say what, a gap higher way up here? It could stick, but unlikely it remains open forever.
DeleteFuturesTrader71 @FuturesTrader71
ReplyDeleteGood morning/afternoon, Traders! ES trading in the 5/28 and 5/22 date range
News: Bernanke's comments after the close yday have driven the mkt to close to 5-yr highs made back in May
Key comment from Bernanke yday is that current unemployment of 7.6% overstates health of US labor mkt.
ES also gapping up from high of 1653. Now looking at 11 pt gap zone and almost 16 pt gap from these levels
Probability of a gap of that size filling during this session is 25.5% on a sample of 1400 trading days
Expecting participation by both sides today as the mkt has received another dose of "Fedocaine" to keep it going until next hit #FT71
AMD - Underperform -> Buy
ReplyDeleteLOL, that's quite an upgrade...
It cracks me up when they do that.
DeleteYeah, they also changed ARR from neutral -> underperform with $4.25 objective, maybe not quite as funny but probably confirms a bottom?
DeletemREIT Table of estimated BV's vs 10yr rate:
ReplyDelete2.50% 2.66% 3.00% 3.50% 4.00%
NLY $13.77 $13.20 $11.90 $9.76 $7.36
AGNC $25.40 $24.82 $23.67 $22.23 $21.07
HTS $24.45 $23.88 $22.66 $20.87 $19.08
CYS $10.99 $10.43 $9.23 $7.39 $5.48
ARR $5.75 $5.52 $5.03 $4.30 $3.56
TWO $11.19 $11.15 $11.04 $10.86 $10.65
IVR $19.84 $19.43 $18.44 $16.74 $14.73
MITT $21.64 $21.04 $19.72 $17.66 $15.47
DX $9.79 $9.89 $9.57 $9.12 $8.66
EFC $24.50 $24.50 $24.50 $24.50 $24.50
BACML seems to have a 10yr rate target of 3.5%
DeleteConsidering today's rate is 2.60% using this table places ARR's book value at $5.52 and NLY's at $13.2
DeleteBACML moved NLY's 12mo PO to $9.76 and unfortunately it hasn't visited that area which is near where I'd planned on potentially adding to my position.
That's quite the move for XHB.
ReplyDeletePIE as well. Oil is nicely red though, the entire market seems like a setup of some sort playing out.
DeleteIt's been quite a run for oil, just a bad day among many good ones or a reversal?
FMD - Well crap, I hate to sell here in hopes this thing moves back down but that looks like what might just happen.....
ReplyDeletedown $.02?
Deletemy take is a lot of underwater longs from 2007 and on are bailing on these bounces. in my opinion it is holding up very well in the face of this selling.
DeleteRemember, this trades at less than book and net cash. While a few banks may still trade at these levels, this is a company with massive upside leverage. They are down from $55 to $1.50 and haven't really rallied that much despite huge improvements in the securitized lending market. The best part is they have ZERO toxic financing to worry about. Most of the financial companies that survived the fallout from 2008 had to take on huge convertible notes or dilute shareholders significantly. Not FMD
DeleteTrue, this could take a while. Besides, mREIT's are getting a bounce and that's not a good time to add based on the recent trend. Sooooo, maybe I get to add FMD instead.
DeleteGMO - Up four centavos, 2x better than expected.
ReplyDeleteGive it time amigo. It's getting there.
DeleteIf there's one trader you want to follow, it's this guy:
ReplyDeletehttps://twitter.com/Ralph_Acampora
I'm getting the fat chick adds again. WTF?
ReplyDeleteI've logged you into all the fat chick websites I could find, next I'll be concentrating on the hair growth formula sites.....
Delete!!!! Yes, you would, wouldn't you...
DeleteIf it wasn't for pretzels I'd starve to death.
DeleteDo I need to repost that naked chicks video link again?
DeleteGood god no!
DeleteYou got your pretzel in my peanut butter! No, you got your peanut butter on my pretzel!
DeleteJumped off the La-Z-Boy!
ReplyDeleteDJIA + 190, SPX + 24 to 1677 (shy of 1700, but I’ll take it). Global markets are on fire> China, HK, and South Korea +3%. Brazil and Argentina +3%. European indexes somewhat muted, but still climbing from yesterday’s sharp gains.
I’ll probably regret it, but I’m happy to have recovered recent losses, and back to about +25% gains over 18 months. I’m going to wait for a retrace to lower levels- ‘V’ shaped rallies (in this case, off the May 22 lows) are difficult to sustain. ITOT, IXUS, and TIP off in the final minutes. VTSMX, VGTSX and VIPSX off at the close.
I knew you'd fall off the wagon! Or should I say recliner?
DeleteIn reading around and watching some finance videos online I would say the majority of people believe the majority of this latest move is Fed related. It's really uncanny. Just like Acompora said, "I live through this in the early 80's and people kept complaining all the way up...and you're doing the same thing...enjoy it..."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/100874564
LOL, I just fell out of my chair, too!
Deleteinteresting side note on tof's Ralph Acampora. He's an instructor at the New York Institute of Finance. When I was doing my other job I was thinking about taking a company paid technical analysis course. One of my bankster contacts said while there probably are some other good places to take those type of courses, the only one he knew of that he would recommend was the New York Institute of Finance. I'm in a different job now so I missed my opportunity.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nyif.com/courses/instructors/100001001.html
1675, eh? How ugly is that?
ReplyDeleteOff mux 1.90
ReplyDeleteOff mux 1.90
ReplyDeleteTCK - Major rally on that one..... Looks more like a bounce, don't it?
ReplyDeleteI agree TOF - lot of people out there just looking for easy trades and soundbites. Reality is, even if it weren't for the Fed, interest rates would be extremely low as their has been no demand for loans and people want safe places to put there money, even with crap returns.
ReplyDeleteReality is, the economy is getting better, 2 of the economy's main economic drivers, housing and autos, have been underproduced for the last 5 years, and there is a lot of pent up demand, which will drive more jobs and the virtous circle proceeds.
Other reality is, if the economy gets better, stocks will do better. If the economy gets worse, money gets cheaper. Hate to say it, but seems pretty much like a no-lose proposition. I know that is wrong and I sound like Kudlow in 2007 with his "Golidlocks" scenario and the gold bugs in 2009 where both inflation and deflation were great for gold prices, but sure seems like there many more things that can go right versus wrong.
Probably should try and come up with some new words other than "reality"...
DeleteAnd 2nd, I just hope you did a partial sell, not a full dump of everything. Nothing wrong with taking some profits into this rise, and getting ready to redeploy on a pullback, but you have to know this going "all in" and "all out" is way too hard.
ReplyDeleteNo-one really know what the market is going to do. Maybe we have great Q2 earnings and get multiple expansion on top of that and a month from now we are up another 10% or 20%. Then what do you do? Chase higher or wait for the next 5% pullback, which may not come for another 10%.
And psychologically, if you are partially in the market, you will certainly make better decisions as it is much easier to make small incremental decisions than major ones with more risk.
So today, "IBD goes to mkt in confirmed uptrend"
DeleteNow you will have a lot of the mo-mo, breakout type traders trying to walk the market up.
Will it work? Who knows? But it might, so you have to be ready to consider that scenario.
BB- You must stop all of this common sense ideas. Remember, we're (me) all just a bunch of alchy's.
DeleteHaha - I guess I just believed when 2nd said he was moving to the "buy and hold" side.
DeleteNothing wrong with 2nd's in and out trading and better to do it on the broad markets than the golds these days, but that style sure wouldn't win any "buy and hold" awards!
Tvix is good for 25% @ this level
ReplyDeleteBut really, it is a good buy and hold market these days.
ReplyDeleteRyan Detrick saying: "Here are final stats for $DIA '95 and '54. Say what u want, so far '13 matching them step for step."
1954 up 44%
1995 up 34%
"•Senate student-loan plan collapses over cost, Bloomberg reports"
ReplyDeleteOFF DRAM 4.25
ReplyDeleteOff CHCSP 32.45
Longer swing on the Dram but a nice 7% gain
Chcsp for an extra Divi. Reenter right away.
new post
ReplyDeleteONLY thing left in the port besides the 45K Lazy Boy is some REDF that has been a big dog. REDF just isn't moving much outside the 2.40-2.55 range.
ReplyDeleteSPX - Now at upper BB, from lower to upper in one month's time.
ReplyDeleteI'm guessing T's will continue coming off, we'll see.....
JNK - Pays 6.45%
ReplyDelete