Friday, July 19, 2013
07/19/13 Detroit Needs Miles
I first heard this at a 1981 Hill Auditorium (Ann Arbor) concert. The stage remained pitch black through the entire performance, save for spotlights on individual band members during solos. Except for Miles. He remained in the shadows, the only signs of his presence either the sound of the horn or a lit cigarette when idle. Guitarist Mike Stern reminded me of Pat Metheny, hair swinging and notes flying.
Motown needs to get back to the business of making great cars and great music.
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Pissed I missed that 8$ bounce in LINE. Stopped three times on it, once at 20.xx something. I should just delete that and YRCW of my port watch list.
ReplyDeleteYou should watch YRCW, it may set-up again on this pullback.
DeleteFMD - Ah-ha....?!?!?! ;)
ReplyDeleteMSFT - Honestly, I'm not surprised.
INTC - Got hit yesterday, eh? Earnings a little soft?
alright fellas. Going to be out for the next week. Hold down the fort!
ReplyDeleteOkay, we'll keep ya covered till we no longer can see ya from the watchtower. From there you're on your own. Bring back some fresh supplies. ;)
DeleteI'm thinking USM might have the potential to be the next LEAP
ReplyDeleteThings US Cell are doing to make me think they are eventually selling include
Delete- reducing workforce in Network/Engineering (usually last place reductions occur)
- selling network assets & spectrum to larger rivals in metropolitan markets (means they are not in it for the long haul)
-sold network assets/spectrum in home market (Chicago). there hq's are there
That should be in quotes. A friend and I were talking about it.
DeleteBought some smaller forget them positions in FMD in various non trading accounts at 1.79. TOF has me convinced we see at least a 1 bagger from here.
ReplyDeleteHey, just a 1 bagger, 1x $1.73 sounds too risky.
DeleteAt LEAST
DeleteYes, but 1x $1.73 = $1.73 Cash is as good as that, I'm telling my mom on you! ;)
Deleteok ok 2 bagger
ReplyDeleteI'm on my phone. Anyone trying dram?
ReplyDeleteLTS - Looks like bull flag, just noticed this one.
ReplyDeleteFolks, maybe correlation does not imply causality, but the correlation between the gold price in 2013 and the expected 10-year inflation is stunning: both have collapsed into late June and both have rebounded strongly since then. Today, the expected 10-year inflation jumped up to 2.21% (it was around 1.95% in late June). Here is a chart as of yesterday (red line):
ReplyDeletehttp://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?graph_id=87988&category_id=0
Kyle -- I don't have a blind belief in macro => micro. I am looking only at those macro measures that both have a strong empirical correlation with the asset of interest AND for which there is a good logical explanation of how they might affect the price of the asset of interest. Expected inflation is an obvious logical driver for gold.
Of course, before making any trading decisions, one would need to study the price pattern in isolation. Today, GDX put a 4th higher high on a closing basis since late June, and correspondingly made 3 higher lows since then. What's not to like about this pattern?
I must admit that I bought 10 contracts of January 2014 GDX calls on the pullback after the second higher high and a higher low were made on July 12, at $3.15 each. During my break from the markets I told myself that I'll stop playing silly games with the miners, fighting against the trend. Instead, I will just wait until the expected inflation inevitably turns around and starts creeping up, and the price also turns around and makes a higher high and a higher low, and THEN I will buy in. There is no way for US to avoid a much higher inflation, as it simply does not have enough cashflow to pay off its current debts, which keep growing faster than cash. So I don't think it wasn't my Ego jumping in, following a greedy impulse. Rather, I hope it was my consciousness calmly deciding that it is better for my family to have less debt, and if I can make some money in the market and pay off the debts faster, it would be better for everyone. I do have a determination right now to stop out of this trade if it ever turns negative (say, the calls drop below $3.00). Can't risk the precious little money I have just because of my beliefs -- have to follow the price now...
"During my break from the markets I told myself that I'll stop playing silly games with the miners, fighting against the trend"
Deleteso you bought calls!?!?
also, are you setting your stop on calls at 5%?
DeleteDavid,
DeleteHere's the problem. You have no idea how much inflation is priced into gold already. Gold moving from $300 to $1300 in 12 years was based on a number of factors and very likely a number of buyers expecting higher inflation. If people didn't expect this, perhaps gold would be $500, so if we don't get 8% a year inflation, perhaps gold has a long way to drop until it is in balance. No-one knows? But certainly, many people have already bought gold in expectation of increased inflation.
Seriously, if you want to help your family, I'd say swear off precious metals and play something that you are not so emotionally involved with. I really think you just have to move on sometimes. I won't ever trade EBAY ever again as I've lost money long and short on it every time. Play oil stocks - if we have inflation, they will do very well too and are beaten down here. Look around the market - there are so many ways to make money. Financials, industrials, consumer discretionary are all doing well and don't have the potential of being in a long term bear market like golds.
Good luck!
The problem with intramarket analysis is it has long lead and lags times. We may get inflation, we certainly will get higher yields and lower bonds, but there can be long periods of jawboning and manipulation by various entities (mainly the fed, but treasury too) and they can cause all kinds of trouble to a thesis. Add the additional risk of options and decay and the risk can escalate quickly.
DeleteSo David may be right but he has now introduced a timing element that may not be accurate.
I think he would do better looking at the long term bond chart and then picking sectors that will do better in a rising rate environment.
TOF found FMD which has rates as it's back and the congress working for it.
BB found insurance co's that will do better in a rising rate environment.
PM's are in a downtrend. They may turn around, but falling knives are not the best way to make money.
Mark,
ReplyDeletere AGO, their involvement with Detroit is mainly with sewers, etc. which are separately funded, so shouldn't be an issue.
They do have some exposure to general Detroit, but quite small. I think that they are right and a pullback here would be a buying opportunity as they are very good at controlling losses.
RAS inverse H&S for you chart pattern dudes. Or cup & handle:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=RAS+Interactive#symbol=ras;range=1y;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Looks good above $7.1
Gold - Retook $1300..... Okay, so why did it fall to $1200 and then rise back up, has anything/something changed?
ReplyDelete