France + 2.7%. Germany + 2.2%. UK's FTSE + 3%! Brazil +2%. Asia somewhat muted, with India +1.2% and HK +1.6%. Shanghai Composite just +0.6%, but above the psychologically important 2000 mark.
Poor Canada - up only .2% today. Both the Dow and S&P futures up around 1%.
As I said before, I think you want to increase your exposure to Europe as their markets should outperform North America as people come to realize things are starting to improve there.
The biggest moves ALWAYS occur when investors are least prepared. Wednesday’s news re Egypt (coup), China (credit crunch) and Portugal (2 Cabinet members resign) ensured that only a minority of traders will profit from any rally on Friday. In and of itself, a low passenger count is not predictive of a market launch- but it’s certainly a prerequisite!
"Currency investors took the central banks' guidance as a green light to sell the euro and sterling, driving both currencies to five-week lows on the greenback."
Be still my heart, the market now realizes a weaker Euro as a positive for the European workforce?
Even though they are Dutch based, they generate about 70% of their income from the US from Transamerica Life.
Seems like a no-brainer:
1. Rated excellent by AM Best, S&P, Moody's 2. Strong balance sheet 3. 36% of book value and 42% of adjusted book 4. P/E of under 10 and forward P/E of 8, 4% yield 5. Plan in place to improve ROE over next 5 years 6. Reducing exposure to risky variable annuity business 7. Norther European economy with strong rule of law
So, really, you are getting the cheapest US life insurer, with some global exposure to Europe and others in a rising interest rate environment which helps life insurers.
I like this, but will wait for the pullback technically. Look at each previous breakout. They all gap up and then pullback, consolidate then gap again. It's pretty consistent in the chart over the last few years.
Tired of waiting for these guys to turn a profit and even though it should be close, the value in AEG is so much better and gets me some more Europe exposure which I am looking for.
I like the Aegon pick BB. A lot. Looks like an excellent pick on the surface (i.e., where it operates + chart). I'm going to research that today. Thanks.
TBT: Sold the position I bought for $72 at $76.40. Seems like a OGRe kind of day. I expect interest rates to rise but a 5+% move in one morning can't last.
Insurance stocks are 2 of the top 3 industry groups in the market today - still a good way to play rising rates without having to nail the timing right like TBT.
Top performing industry group is US Hotel Stocks, which I do like as the valuations are good, room rates are rising, and new builds are low. But I am a bit surprised because their costs of financing are also going up. Still hold AHT which has had a good pullback, plus a couple of hotel stocks in Canada.
Nice work BB. I think you're spot on with your picks going forward.
Another one that has been doing well (for me, at least) is NOK. I've been tempted to sell as it likes to bounce between $3.8 and $4ish, but based on the sum of its parts I still think it goes a good deal higher.
NOK unveiled two back-to-basics 3G phones this week. They allow access to popular applications such as Facebook and Twitter, and sell for just $68.
That's quite a price. Pretty aggressive.
I agree NOK is a good sum of parts value play, but wonder how this value will get surfaced. You can say a lot of similar things about BBRY, but you need a board which is serious about driving shareholder value, not just trying to keep the company going.
BBRY is not diversified enough to cushion it against falling market share in the handset business. Nokia's other segments make them far more money. Investors have remained too focused on the handset biz for Nokia while ignoring the others.
Still have my original shares, wanted weakness to replace my trading shares. Told ya' my sacrifice would cause an upside reversal, that's my story and I'm sticking to it. ;)
"Ok, here we go, we got a real pressure cooker going here, two down, nobody on, no score, bottom of the ninth, there's the wind-up and there it is, a line shot up the middle, look at him go. This boy can really fly! He's rounding first and really turning it on now, he's not letting up at all, he's gonna try for second; the ball is bobbled out in center, and here comes the throw, and what a throw! He's gonna slide in head first, here he comes, he's out! No, wait, safe--safe at second base, this kid really makes things happen out there. Batter steps up to the plate, here's the pitch-- he's going, and what a jump he's got, he's trying for third, here's the throw, it's in the dirt-- safe at third! Holy cow, stolen base! He's taking a pretty big lead out there, almost daring him to try and pick him off. The pitcher glance over, winds up, and it's bunted, bunted down the third base line, the suicide squeeze in on! Here he comes, squeeze play, it's gonna be close, here's the throw, there's the play at the plate, holy cow, I think he's gonna make it!"
WTF? I get 'new posted' in under a minute!
ReplyDeleteI think I drafted the new post in under a minute!
DeletePoor Canada - up only .2% today. Both the Dow and S&P futures up around 1%.
ReplyDeleteAs I said before, I think you want to increase your exposure to Europe as their markets should outperform North America as people come to realize things are starting to improve there.
totally agree...although the US will do well too. it's the financials and credit names' time to shine as the economy continues to improve.
DeleteNot GMO?
DeleteThe biggest moves ALWAYS occur when investors are least prepared. Wednesday’s news re Egypt (coup), China (credit crunch) and Portugal (2 Cabinet members resign) ensured that only a minority of traders will profit from any rally on Friday. In and of itself, a low passenger count is not predictive of a market launch- but it’s certainly a prerequisite!
ReplyDeleteThere is a (trader) lady I've been following on Twitter
Deletehttps://twitter.com/SusanCTShore
Her 'reads' are 'similar' to yours. May be worth a follow...
Here's another follow 4u ...
DeleteOMG Facts SEX @OMGFactsSex
San Francisco is the city with the highest percentage of millionaires
What was the 'reason' for the big moves in EEM today? Busy day here. 100 mile ride in 100 degrees!
ReplyDeletemaybe this ...
Deletehttp://www.4-traders.com/news/Asian-stocks-swept-up-by-Europe-rally-euro-sulks--14514335/?countview=0
Thanks. Probably. Too bad it wasn't something 'real'. Isn't it time to get off this train?
Delete"Currency investors took the central banks' guidance as a green light to sell the euro and sterling, driving both currencies to five-week lows on the greenback."
DeleteBe still my heart, the market now realizes a weaker Euro as a positive for the European workforce?
HIG breaking out of a 6 year channel.
ReplyDeleteRestructuring going well. Good fundamental support. Paulson driving this one, so have good shareholder focus.
DeleteBMY - Testing the lower trend line, this could get interesting.
ReplyDeleteWhy'd you look at that one?
DeleteMainly b/c there's a gap down from $70's about a half decade ago. Curious to see if the gap gets filled.
DeleteGold - Not up very much..... Might turn red?
ReplyDeleteMight take another swing at MUX here. Down 8% again
DeleteBought Dutch Life Insurer AEGON (AEG) today.
ReplyDeleteEven though they are Dutch based, they generate about 70% of their income from the US from Transamerica Life.
Seems like a no-brainer:
1. Rated excellent by AM Best, S&P, Moody's
2. Strong balance sheet
3. 36% of book value and 42% of adjusted book
4. P/E of under 10 and forward P/E of 8, 4% yield
5. Plan in place to improve ROE over next 5 years
6. Reducing exposure to risky variable annuity business
7. Norther European economy with strong rule of law
So, really, you are getting the cheapest US life insurer, with some global exposure to Europe and others in a rising interest rate environment which helps life insurers.
I like this, but will wait for the pullback technically. Look at each previous breakout. They all gap up and then pullback, consolidate then gap again. It's pretty consistent in the chart over the last few years.
DeleteRBY - Big smackdown, down for the count?
ReplyDeleteThat's one of the few making a new low. Any news?
DeleteDunno, just noticed it getting sold.
DeleteAlso sold regional bank SNBC to help fund this.
ReplyDeleteTired of waiting for these guys to turn a profit and even though it should be close, the value in AEG is so much better and gets me some more Europe exposure which I am looking for.
I like the Aegon pick BB. A lot. Looks like an excellent pick on the surface (i.e., where it operates + chart). I'm going to research that today. Thanks.
DeleteI don't think I mentioned it on Wed but I sold KNDI for a loss at $5.25. I am, however, looking at re-entering.
ReplyDeletePart of me wonders if this is a scam, the other part things its a helluva trading opportunity.
DeleteKNDI - Are buyers or sellers the infant? I haven't looked at it yet, but intend to.
DeleteTBT: Sold the position I bought for $72 at $76.40. Seems like a OGRe kind of day.
ReplyDeleteI expect interest rates to rise but a 5+% move in one morning can't last.
Nice trade, had my finger on the 72 print early this week too.
DeleteThe LINE is still pointing straight down!
ReplyDeleteMaybe it's listed as an mREIT.....
DeleteKinda a wired day hun. Feels like a Monday. Oh well, it wont come 5:00! later gators.
ReplyDeletemREIT's - Have mom and pop received their monthly account statement yet?
ReplyDeleteI'm long KNDI if it goes back above $5.10
ReplyDeleteJumped the gun. Back in at $5.06/8
DeleteHourly earnings are up, indicating that new hires may be needed moving forward.
ReplyDeleteUCO/UGA - These are headed for the hills, looks like. Maybe b/c the BS about tapering squashing the economy is actually pure unadulterated BS, eh?
ReplyDeleteWonder when the FED begins tapering the interest they're paying banks on capital in reserve? That ought to counteract the flight from T's, I'd think.
ReplyDeleteInsurance stocks are 2 of the top 3 industry groups in the market today - still a good way to play rising rates without having to nail the timing right like TBT.
ReplyDeleteTop performing industry group is US Hotel Stocks, which I do like as the valuations are good, room rates are rising, and new builds are low. But I am a bit surprised because their costs of financing are also going up. Still hold AHT which has had a good pullback, plus a couple of hotel stocks in Canada.
Nice work BB. I think you're spot on with your picks going forward.
DeleteAnother one that has been doing well (for me, at least) is NOK. I've been tempted to sell as it likes to bounce between $3.8 and $4ish, but based on the sum of its parts I still think it goes a good deal higher.
Saw this on Nokia today:
DeleteNOK unveiled two back-to-basics 3G phones this week. They allow access to popular applications such as Facebook and Twitter, and sell for just $68.
That's quite a price. Pretty aggressive.
I agree NOK is a good sum of parts value play, but wonder how this value will get surfaced. You can say a lot of similar things about BBRY, but you need a board which is serious about driving shareholder value, not just trying to keep the company going.
BB - To me it's all about cash + NSN (or now Nokia Networks) + royalties on patents. all the other crap is just icing on the cake.
DeleteBBRY is not diversified enough to cushion it against falling market share in the handset business. Nokia's other segments make them far more money. Investors have remained too focused on the handset biz for Nokia while ignoring the others.
DeleteMux for a spin @1.78
ReplyDeleteNice little rally for FMD at the end of the day. Let's see if this one sticks.
ReplyDeleteLooks like I sold another block @ 1.24.
DeleteStill have my original shares, wanted weakness to replace my trading shares. Told ya' my sacrifice would cause an upside reversal, that's my story and I'm sticking to it. ;)
DeleteFMD's P&F target is $0. When I was in YRCW the p&f target was $0. Now it's $39, go figure.
ReplyDeleteThis PNF disagrees, target is currently $1.45:
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=fmd,pepmdanrbr&pnf=y
Holy hell. Look at the chart on ABX. About as oversold as it gets for a blue chip stock.
ReplyDeleteMLER - Not much volume, but it's got range.
ReplyDelete"Ok, here we go, we got a real pressure cooker
ReplyDeletegoing here, two down, nobody on, no score,
bottom of the ninth, there's the wind-up and
there it is, a line shot up the middle, look
at him go. This boy can really fly!
He's rounding first and really turning it on
now, he's not letting up at all, he's gonna
try for second; the ball is bobbled out in center,
and here comes the throw, and what a throw!
He's gonna slide in head first, here he comes, he's out!
No, wait, safe--safe at second base, this kid really
makes things happen out there.
Batter steps up to the plate, here's the pitch--
he's going, and what a jump he's got, he's trying
for third, here's the throw, it's in the dirt--
safe at third! Holy cow, stolen base!
He's taking a pretty big lead out there, almost
daring him to try and pick him off. The pitcher
glance over, winds up, and it's bunted, bunted
down the third base line, the suicide squeeze in on!
Here he comes, squeeze play, it's gonna be close,
here's the throw, there's the play at the plate,
holy cow, I think he's gonna make it!"
Annnddd...CP gets 'new posted' in under 30 minutes!
ReplyDelete