HIMX @ 6.67 after hours. Front-running Derek's call. I also happen to like the prospects for this company. GOOG recently took a 6.3% position in the Display subsidiary.
Objective Trader like Brazil to buy now as well - http://www.objectivetrader.com/2013/08/samba-continues-brazil-9-august-2013.html
So, we have a good technical setup and value guys liking BSBR (Tweedy Browne, also found Real Money value guy Tim Melvin likes), plus good fundamental stats, likely strong economic tailwinds, an oligarchy competitive environment -> I may be talking myself into adding to this position.
I think we get back in the $10 - $12 range within the year as people start moving money back to emerging markets - this seems like a fair valuation based on standard metrics.
If the economy and their business continues to improve and people get excited about Brazil, I could see the high teen's.
BSBR - Okay, got a stink bid at $5.30, not expecting a hit but last week I watched a guy catch his biggest Bass ever, a 5lb'er So hey, I can play too.....
Keep in mind that the market's objective during a bull market is to throw as many "bulls" off over its entire course. No way in hell do I think it's over. Lots of people have recommended caution for far too long, waiting for the "inevitable pullback".
Look at it this way, we're all operating in a captured market and the brief opportunity for shorting has long expired, so don't believe the negative hype designed to play upon your fears.
Only one which shows overvaluation is Schiller P/E (Hussman's favourite).
Feels right to me, and, if the economy continues to improve as I believe it will, stock prices should rise in conjunction with earnings and P/E type ratios move back to average/median, will get a boost there too. Double win.
Lots of people are saying that momentum has stalled and that now is not a good time to buy. There were several similar periods above. All were buying opps.
"The rally has also forced strategists to play catch-up with a market that has shown few signs of losing momentum. Wall Street’s 13 leading strategists, on average, expect the S&P 500 to finish the year at 1669, according to Mr. Birinyi. That estimate, while up from the 1544 forecast at the beginning of the year, is still below Thursday’s close."
"Even the skeptics are turning a bit less bearish. Earlier this week Barry Knapp of BarclaysBARC.LN +0.05% boosted his year-end target to 1600 from 1525. “It appears that our bull case – faster-than-expected improvement in capital investment and better-than-expected consumer resiliency to tax hikes – may be playing out,” he said."
Doesn't exactly sound like all out bullish to me. Even the bulls are getting cautious...Birinyi is calling for a 2% upside by year end, Jim Paulsen (Wells Fargo) is calling for people to sell pops to 1,700, and Jeff Saut expects the first meaningful correction.
All I keep doing is pruning stocks which have gotten too high, selling a few dogs, and reinvesting in undervalued stocks.
I think that the pullback in 2011 did a lot of psychological damage to traders, keeping them skittish and from running things up. It wasn't technically a bear market, but was pretty darn close, and, from there, the current bull is less than 2 years old. So lots of time before it's an old, extended market.
People keep saying stocks aren't cheap anymore, but they didn't tell you to buy them when they were cheaper anyhow. Now, they may not be cheap, but they aren't expensive and almost every stock I look at is cheaper than it was in the 2005 - 2006 good market period. I don't think we go down until we get something similar to that time.
Some of you might find it interesting to read through the latest commentary I received from Cumberland advisors.
A Strategy Change August 11, 2013
It has been a busy two weeks. The Leen’s Lodge gathering added an intense interlude of high-powered conversation and analysis. The Yellen-Summers headlines now have two added mystery names per President Obama. The Fed (Federal Reserve) tapering talk adds the question “What is the policy?” to the question “Who will be making the policy?” Markets are going through gyrations in both bonds and stocks. And we see surprising reactions in foreign currencies, with the Japanese yen strengthening while changes in policy at the Bank of England have resulted in a market reaction opposite to what the BOE expected.
At Cumberland, there have been a number of strategy changes. Clients are aware of these changes by observing the activity in their accounts. We will summarize here the strategy changes and the reasons for them. Expect further commentaries on these matters as we keep you apprised of factors affecting the market and our timely responses to changing conditions.
We have raised cash in both US and international equity accounts. The bottom line is that the risk profile in stock markets is up. There are questions about the pace of economic recovery, some of the sectors such as energy or housing, and the impact of the Fed’s talk of tapering and what it is doing to risk premia and re-pricing in the market. The possibility of a Summers Fed chairmanship, coupled with Elizabeth Duke’s departing, Jerome Powell’s term ending next year, Sarah Bloom Raskin’s leaving for the Treasury, and Janet Yellen’s departing (If she is not appointed chair?) , leads market agents to conclude that an entirely different configuration of the Fed board may soon be at hand.
Add to that the retirements of some of the seasoned presidents (Cleveland Fed president Sandra Pianalto has announced), and the structure of the US central bank may reach a point where the remaining experienced and historically seasoned members of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) are few. New observers and appointees may have seen the financial crisis from the outside; however, they will not have acquired firsthand the knowledge and experience gained only through making decisions under fire. Markets are aware that they face the biggest US central bank transition in many years.
Bond markets have backed up in yields. This is true in the Treasury, municipal and taxable bond markets. We have written about how yields have been distorted and yield spreads have widened enormously. Our example was a trading day in which the 30-year US Treasury obligation (federally taxable) traded at 3.62% yield. In the same 24-hour period, the tax-free New Jersey Turnpike traded at 4.73% yield, and the taxable New Jersey Turnpike traded at 5.15%. In our view, the tax-free turnpike bonds are screaming bargains in the present climate. In fact, Cumberland owns them in clients’ accounts.
Risk management issues loom larger than usual. What do you do when the stock market has reached your next year’s target? Our target was the S&P 500 at 1700 by the end of 2014. We are there. What do you do when the outlook for earnings is starting to deteriorate? We have ratcheted back our S&P 500 estimates for this year by a couple of dollars. We still think that earnings will come in around $110, give or take $2. The picture is trending toward more softness in earnings growth.
What do you do when the outlook for the future earnings growth rate is also deteriorating? We base that assessment on the fact that the profit share of the GDP in the US is at the highest level it has seen in decades and the labor share is at the lowest level. That means productivity seems high and earnings that come from that profit share seem to be strong. Could the profit share go higher? Yes it could. Is that likely now? We think not. Furthermore, the ratio of the value of the entire S&P 500 index to the GDP has reached 100%. History (Ned Davis database) suggests that this is a dangerous level.
We think the profit share of the GDP is rolling over, peaking, and tipping into what might be a long-term decline from this very high level. And the labor share may be bottoming and is positioned now to start a gradual rise over time from this very low level. If this view is correct, then American companies begin to face headwinds that will slow the earnings growth rate. This is not just a day-to-day, week-to-week or month-to-month rate of change. This is strategic. What lies before us is a longer-term stretch in which the tremendous benefit to American business from central bank policy in the post-crisis period will come to an end.
Lastly, there is the issue of demographic headwinds. Rob Arnott, a guest at Leen’s Lodge this year, has offered thoughtful analysis on demographics. He notes, in his serious research, how strongly demographics have contributed, in the past, to accelerating growth rates, and he forecasts significant headwinds that demographic change may introduce into our strategic future.
Put that package together and there emerges a set of circumstances in which stocks, having risen terrifically, now look less appealing at the current price level. Certain sectors of the bond market, by contrast, look more appealing.
Consider that New Jersey Turnpike 4.73% tax-free yield. We sat in a meeting with one of our New Jersey clients and reviewed his portfolio. The client is a successful businessman. He was joined in the meeting by his financial professional. We dissected his New Jersey tax bracket. He is somewhere in the 51%-52% marginal tax bracket. He is a New Jersey resident paying federal income taxes and New Jersey taxes at the top rates. He bumps up against levels which limit his deductions and expenses when he completes his tax return. And we must add the Obamacare tax he pays. That is how his marginal tax rates reach 52%.
Sitting in that meeting, we took apart 4.73% as a yield that he can obtain by investing in a long-term debt instrument with a senior claim on the revenues of the New Jersey Turnpike. The compounding taxable equivalent yield for him is approximately 9.5%. He can get that yield year after year.
What that means is that, to scrape up a viable and comparable investment alternative, he would have to find an investment somewhere else deriving a taxable income of 9.5% and pay all of his taxes on that percentage. The residual would equal the return generated by the New Jersey Turnpike instrument. Where are you going to find such a low credit risk, high quality, and liquid investment in New Jersey to compound at a 9% or 9.5% rate pretax so that you can derive a match against the New Jersey Turnpike? I cannot see any, and neither can he. That is why we allocated in favor of his tax-free bond portfolio. Do the same math with some long-term holding and use the 20% capital gains rate. Add Obamacare tax and add NJ taxes. The case for the New Jersey Turnpike tax-free bond is still very compelling.
We have changed our internal asset-allocation mix at Cumberland Advisors. In the beginning of this cycle, we were as high as 80% stocks in balanced accounts. That allocation has been reduced to 60%. We have taken the bond piece up to 40%. Furthermore, we have extended duration in individually managed accounts. The entire hubbub over Detroit, San Bernardino, and other specific tax-free municipal bond credit issues has provided an entry opportunity in the tax-free municipal bond market that is unparalleled except for one other time. I would characterize that other time as the "Whitney moment," when Meredith Whitney went on 60 Minutes and predicted the end of the municipal bond world. Let’s call this current time the Whitney-esque moment.
We are buyers of tax-free bonds. We have a cash reserve in our US equity and international ETF accounts. That cash reserve is higher than it has been in our accounts in quite some time. And we are going to hold that cash reserve on the sidelines for a time. We cannot say how long and we do not know when or how much will be redeployed.
We are now facing the transitional period for the central bank. We do not know who the next chairman is going to be or what the composition of the board will be. But we do know that the current wave of uncertainty will soon be cresting into decisions sure to have cascading consequences in churning markets. We have seen a lineup of commentary coming from FOMC members that suggests a form of tapering is coming.
We are not afraid of tapering. Tapering by itself is not an issue if it is coupled with an extension of the short-term interest-rate commitment. In other words, the Fed can cut the rate of additional purchases and use guidance to extend the period before and until the Fed Funds rate will be elevated from its present 0.0%-0.25% range. Some members of the FOMC are thinking that tapering means reducing the amount of stimulus but extending the time period in which it is applied. If the market grasps that concept, bonds will rally, and tax-free bonds even more so.
Think about it. If the inflation rate in the US is roughly 1% and there is a possible downward trend, then a 4.73% tax-free New Jersey bond is delivering a real return of 3.73% after taxes to a New Jersey resident. That is a phenomenally high return on an investment for someone living in New Jersey. The real return is still quite high if the inflation rate heads up to 2%. This is now a win-win for an individual investor. There are similar opportunities in jurisdictions throughout the US.
To sum this up, carefully selected bonds now offer an entry opportunity and long duration. It is critical to check the quality of credits, particularly in the municipal bond market.
Stocks require selectivity as to sector activity and many other characteristics. We have had terrific success in our US ETF portfolios this year. We do not want to give those strategically achieved profits back. So we now have a cash reserve until we get through this difficult period.
2nd - Not sure if you kept the nat gas trades but the chart looks excellent right here. The reversal on Thurs was great (just at Feb 2013 support) and you have a clearly defined stop out point. If Natty drops below $3.10 for 2 days I'd probably bail. Upside could be nice.
It isn't so much what actually happens, it's the response, which is usually emotional. The Fed can jawbone it, and regardless of the actual action, the market tends to respond emotionally. If there is uncertainty about the Fed, the makeup of the Fed, or what possible actions they may take, then risk averse managers are going to take money off the table or respond emotionally.
While I don't follow Kotok, others do and there will be other investment firms thinking the same way. Personally I will just be watching the charts to track the elephants, but I'm also aware we are at or near new highs, bonds are not far off their highs but could go either way, the VIX is very low (reversion to the mean is a concern) and the markets, net/net have been flat for a while. I don't see a reason to be certain and bold with my $$$$.
"According to the Investment Company Institute, the Great American Public has poured $92 billion into the stock market via stock mutual funds since the start of the year.
To put that in context, in the first seven months of last year — when the market was much lower — they withdrew $180 billion. "
so net-net they have withdrawn $90 Billion since the start of last year? hardly euphoric.
by the way, this arends guy has been bearish for a while.
"Data shows that the ordinary retail public — Mom and Pop — are back on Wall Street, and how! According to the Investment Company Institute, the Great American Public has poured $92 billion into the stock market via stock mutual funds since the start of the year."
$92B sounds like a lot, doesn't it? But is it, really? And the "FED is involved" argument is said to apply as well.... What's it all about?
The moms and pops I know personally, jumped back in over two years ago.
So my honest feeling is these articles are just more of the same BS noise and that at some point, something is always bound to happen.
I like this chart. Gives you a sense of what normal pullbacks are like each year. 13 out of the last 16 years have had pullbacks of 10% or more. Prior to that 12 of the prior 14 years never had a 10% pullback. Something to keep in mind when bears complain about there not being a meaningful pullback yet this year and therefore we need to have one.
I have my doubts about earnings for FMD being tomorrow after the close. They typically announce a week or so ahead of time and I've seen no press release. The only note I have is on my Think or Swim platform for 8/13/13 after close.
Well the earnings should be soon, so I'm not discounting the possibility of the 13th. Okay I'll look and see if I can locate the info from my command console as well...
I was bored this morning and bought a really small amount of MCOX at $5.9. Just sold it at $7.4. Probably should have wired my business funds into that one. yet another low float china stock.
Had some time and popped over to the Sista. Nothing happening today, so I went back to Sunday. Holy cow, it was like coming home from college to hear the family arguing about the same old same old.
Maybe. I just follow the arrows (and the sectors)and keep an eye on the MA's and angles. Every once in awhile I look at Twiggs money flow. If momentum picks up, my current holdings should do well and there will be more set-ups. If not then I'll get stopped out. I don't have a crystal ball.
Good eye on the gap, overlooked that one. A couple of volume spikes there now too, could be the signal. I'm gonna wait and see, maybe I can get it cheaper but doubt it.
Trying to not get too deep till I see how FMD earnings go.
Notes From Underground: Global Macro In a World of Rising Big Data
The new buzz word from the realm of the “talking heads” is BIG DATA. When we mention FACEBOOK and the other social media companies, the discussion leads to big data. The issue of Snowden and the NSA is the U.S. Government’s collection of vast amounts of personal data on U.S. citizens in the name of national security and preventing possible acts of terror. Ultimately, the discussion is about the ability of computers to search through ginormous amounts of data and find patterns that will reveal threatening behavior. In the May/June issue of Foreign Affairs, Kenneth Cukier and Viktor Mayer-Schoenberger wrote an article, “The Rise of Big Data.” It is an essay adapted from a book they wrote. Three key points are outlined:
1.Collect a lot of data rather than rely on small samples;
2. Not be concerned about how pristine the data may be and through algorithms sort through vast amounts of data regardless how messy it may be because quantity is more important than quality;
3. (THIS IS KEY FOR THE REALM OF GLOBAL MACRO FINANCIAL WORLD) “IN MANY INSTANCES,WE WILL NEED TO GIVE UP OUR QUEST TO DISCOVER THE CAUSE OF THINGS,IN RETURN FOR ACCEPTING CORRELATIONS.”
This has been the rise of so much pain for many QUALITY analysts over the last half decade. Many trades get decimated as algos wreak havoc in the search of correlations. The ultimate example of this–RISK ON, RISK OFF. Fundamentals don’t matter in a market searching for correlative relationships. In support of the BIG DATA crowd the authors note that while “knowing ” causes for market moves is desirable “… causes are often extremely hard to figure out, and many times, when we think we have identified them, it is nothing more than a self-congratulatory illusion.” The work of Cukiera and Mayer-Schoenberger reflect the battlefield of investing. Fundamental traders must always use technicals to set loss parameters and as algos destroy value through the constant search for correlation. We must be prepared to allow the markets to bring prices to an absurd level.
I think if this is the case and it marks a bottom no different than what we saw in Gold recently, then a stock like ARR should do well...as well as the overall market...unless bonds go up because the market is going down. Confusing stuff but really I wouldn't be surprised to see TLT do well in the very short term.
"Many traders fear buying a market that has already broken out — instead, they often get chopped up within a trading range attempting to get positioned before the breakout, then they miss the move when it happpens. Any period of weakness in a strong advancing trend is a buying opportunity."
With a few caveats this is true. Breakouts are prone to failure. Trading ranges at all time highs can also be transitions. At the top of the range you can feel like a genius and at the bottom it can be scary. The bottom of the range does have a well defined entry and stop though.
"Any period of weakness in a strong advancing trend is a buying opportunity."
The key thing is three words: "strong advancing trend". It can be argued that a trading range is not a strong advancing trend. If it was easy anyone could do it.
Also, I like buying stocks in long basing patterns after a large downturn - although that was more a 2009 - 2011 strategy and hard to find stocks like that now.
The thing I find hard about buying trading patterns is just what you say though CP. That is why I believe understanding the fundamentals and value helps you to make the right decision.
IS it breaking out and cheap? Then probably good to buy. Is it breaking out with no valuation support, much riskier.
In regards to this, PM's do seem to be bouncing, but I think we get a long at least year-long grind-out bottom before they are completely disregarded and ready to buy.
NLS had an upgrade today to Buy with a $9 target. Let's see if the stock can hold in the green today. If it does and the market bounces from here this is one I would look at.
Last night I was looking closely at the action in 1995 to get an idea for how this might pan out in the case that this is another buying opportunity. I know it's dangerous to do this but it got me thinking yesterday after looking at how many years in the past 15 had 10%+ corrections that if this year is like 1995 or another year where we only get a 6% correction then what might happen. In 1995, after a long run all year, the market traded sideways for about 2 months in Sept > Nov. It definitely looked like it was topping out. There were negative divergences everywhere and while I didn't trade then I would have to imagine the traders of that day were all screaming that it was going to crash like in 1987 and how momentum was gone. The market pulled in about 2 or 3%, RSI_EMA hit 30 (buy signal) on a big down day that finished in the middle of the day's range and then that was it. From there the market went up 10% more into the end of the year.
Today the market is down big, RSI_EMA hit 30 just today, momentum appears to be gone, negative divergences are everywhere, people are talking about 1987 style crashes, Hindenburg omens etc and traders are bearish. History doesn't repeat but it does often rhyme.
My strategy during this "downturn" has been to buy only those stocks with very low RSI_EMA readings that have recently crashed. This strategy seems to be working well (NLS, CSCO) so far.
Probably would be a good one to listen to: http://www.moneyshow.com/eShow/san_francisco/moneyshow/workshop_details.asp?wid=559B375CE0E441D483E432E6DEBE941A
HIMX @ 6.67 after hours. Front-running Derek's call. I also happen to like the prospects for this company. GOOG recently took a 6.3% position in the Display subsidiary.
ReplyDeleteLumpy? Where have I heard that before...
ReplyDeleteMust be a rapper group, MC Boo-Boo and Lumpy?
DeleteObjective Trader like Brazil to buy now as well - http://www.objectivetrader.com/2013/08/samba-continues-brazil-9-august-2013.html
ReplyDeleteSo, we have a good technical setup and value guys liking BSBR (Tweedy Browne, also found Real Money value guy Tim Melvin likes), plus good fundamental stats, likely strong economic tailwinds, an oligarchy competitive environment -> I may be talking myself into adding to this position.
I noticed yesterday was ex-div, next couple sessions might reveal some clues but I doubt it's being distributed.
DeleteWhat's your upside target BB. I might bite on this one too.
DeleteI think we get back in the $10 - $12 range within the year as people start moving money back to emerging markets - this seems like a fair valuation based on standard metrics.
DeleteIf the economy and their business continues to improve and people get excited about Brazil, I could see the high teen's.
Thanks bro.
DeleteTOF- When is FMD reporting.
ReplyDeleteHe posted yesterday Aug 13, not sure how he found out.
DeleteLooks like I'll have to wait then.
DeleteDNDN has one PT of 0.
ReplyDeleteYRCW headed for the 100ma? More shares bought by that 10% fund and some coverts.
ReplyDeleteor the 365 and 10 bucks. That would be one hell of a round trip.
Deletecrashing now...
Delete12 ply wheels coming off?
DeleteHedge Fund Billionaire Marc Lasry Increases Stake in YRC Worldwide Inc at Minyanville -9.71%
PNF is $13.22, wonder how close this one turns out?
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=yrcw,pepmdanrbr&pnf=y
jeez NOAH and BITA are two stocks I've wanted to buy forever but have been too focused on other stocks. those things are just beasts.
ReplyDeleteI recall you brought up NOAH several times.
DeleteIH&S target looks like ~$20, PNF objective is $17.23
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=noah,pepmdanrbr&pnf=y
yeah i researched them a lot a few months ago. Awesome business, pays a dividend, tremendous growth, reputable managers.
DeleteBSBR - Okay, got a stink bid at $5.30, not expecting a hit but last week I watched a guy catch his biggest Bass ever, a 5lb'er So hey, I can play too.....
ReplyDelete"90-day breakouts: AER, AMX, CXO, ING, LOW, & SFUN. 90-day breakdowns: none."
ReplyDeleteBRKR - 8/9/13 - Neutral -> Buy
ReplyDeleteGosh, how clairvoyant is that?
(a) Added UGAZ premarket @ 13.80.
ReplyDelete(b) HIMX off @ 6.77.
(c) UGAZ off @ 14.23 for a minor profit.
(d) UNG off @ 14.56 for lunch money.
That's 17.56 for UNG, of course.
DeleteAdded a little more NLS at $6.50. Avg is $6.65. Small position. Will add more on a move down to $5 if it comes.
ReplyDeleteSadly lacking guts recently.
ReplyDeleteDon't blame you. The market feels shaky.
DeleteNo, more like you have common sense.
DeleteMarkets (with the possible exception of the Q's) have lost momentum lately.
Basically flat for weeks now.
No trend? Sit on hands, enjoy summer.
Keep in mind that the market's objective during a bull market is to throw as many "bulls" off over its entire course. No way in hell do I think it's over. Lots of people have recommended caution for far too long, waiting for the "inevitable pullback".
DeleteIt may not have a pullback. It might do what it's doing and work off overbought going sideways.
DeleteNo problem, I hold my positions and wait for further instructions from the conductor.
But I'm not buying any more seats in the meantime.
Global Warming -> Climate Change -> Climate Shift?
ReplyDeleteSounds almost like a weather report...
Taking another swing @ UNG> 17.28.
ReplyDeleteBack in HIMX @ 6.67.
ReplyDeleteUGAZ @ 13.56...
ReplyDeleteUGA - Got a bounce at the 200/50SMA cross, do I recognize a bullish pattern, not sure:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=uga&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
Look at it this way, we're all operating in a captured market and the brief opportunity for shorting has long expired, so don't believe the negative hype designed to play upon your fears.
Interesting article from Ritholz on market valuation and says pretty much fair to undervalued.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/08/stocks-cheap-or-expensive/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+TheBigPicture+%28The+Big+Picture%29
Only one which shows overvaluation is Schiller P/E (Hussman's favourite).
Feels right to me, and, if the economy continues to improve as I believe it will, stock prices should rise in conjunction with earnings and P/E type ratios move back to average/median, will get a boost there too. Double win.
BB - I like looking at this period in the market only because it had a similar, albeit much stronger and longer, rise:
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC+Interactive#symbol=^gspc;range=19940121,19960119;compare=;indicator=dividend+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
Lots of people are saying that momentum has stalled and that now is not a good time to buy. There were several similar periods above. All were buying opps.
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2013/08/09/morning-moneybeat-the-growing-1700-club/
ReplyDelete"The rally has also forced strategists to play catch-up with a market that has shown few signs of losing momentum. Wall Street’s 13 leading strategists, on average, expect the S&P 500 to finish the year at 1669, according to Mr. Birinyi. That estimate, while up from the 1544 forecast at the beginning of the year, is still below Thursday’s close."
"Even the skeptics are turning a bit less bearish. Earlier this week Barry Knapp of BarclaysBARC.LN +0.05% boosted his year-end target to 1600 from 1525. “It appears that our bull case – faster-than-expected improvement in capital investment and better-than-expected consumer resiliency to tax hikes – may be playing out,” he said."
Doesn't exactly sound like all out bullish to me. Even the bulls are getting cautious...Birinyi is calling for a 2% upside by year end, Jim Paulsen (Wells Fargo) is calling for people to sell pops to 1,700, and Jeff Saut expects the first meaningful correction.
All I keep doing is pruning stocks which have gotten too high, selling a few dogs, and reinvesting in undervalued stocks.
DeleteI think that the pullback in 2011 did a lot of psychological damage to traders, keeping them skittish and from running things up. It wasn't technically a bear market, but was pretty darn close, and, from there, the current bull is less than 2 years old. So lots of time before it's an old, extended market.
People keep saying stocks aren't cheap anymore, but they didn't tell you to buy them when they were cheaper anyhow. Now, they may not be cheap, but they aren't expensive and almost every stock I look at is cheaper than it was in the 2005 - 2006 good market period. I don't think we go down until we get something similar to that time.
BSBR/BSAC/BAP all having a decent day, even EPU has joined the fray. Oh hallelujah, the computers have finally unlocked horns!
ReplyDeleteDid you buy BSAC?
DeleteSilver - Looking better, will this one actually survive "SYMPTOM SIX"?
ReplyDeleteSome of you might find it interesting to read through the latest commentary I received from Cumberland advisors.
ReplyDeleteA Strategy Change
August 11, 2013
It has been a busy two weeks. The Leen’s Lodge gathering added an intense interlude of high-powered conversation and analysis. The Yellen-Summers headlines now have two added mystery names per President Obama. The Fed (Federal Reserve) tapering talk adds the question “What is the policy?” to the question “Who will be making the policy?” Markets are going through gyrations in both bonds and stocks. And we see surprising reactions in foreign currencies, with the Japanese yen strengthening while changes in policy at the Bank of England have resulted in a market reaction opposite to what the BOE expected.
At Cumberland, there have been a number of strategy changes. Clients are aware of these changes by observing the activity in their accounts. We will summarize here the strategy changes and the reasons for them. Expect further commentaries on these matters as we keep you apprised of factors affecting the market and our timely responses to changing conditions.
We have raised cash in both US and international equity accounts. The bottom line is that the risk profile in stock markets is up. There are questions about the pace of economic recovery, some of the sectors such as energy or housing, and the impact of the Fed’s talk of tapering and what it is doing to risk premia and re-pricing in the market. The possibility of a Summers Fed chairmanship, coupled with Elizabeth Duke’s departing, Jerome Powell’s term ending next year, Sarah Bloom Raskin’s leaving for the Treasury, and Janet Yellen’s departing (If she is not appointed chair?) , leads market agents to conclude that an entirely different configuration of the Fed board may soon be at hand.
Add to that the retirements of some of the seasoned presidents (Cleveland Fed president Sandra Pianalto has announced), and the structure of the US central bank may reach a point where the remaining experienced and historically seasoned members of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) are few. New observers and appointees may have seen the financial crisis from the outside; however, they will not have acquired firsthand the knowledge and experience gained only through making decisions under fire. Markets are aware that they face the biggest US central bank transition in many years.
Bond markets have backed up in yields. This is true in the Treasury, municipal and taxable bond markets. We have written about how yields have been distorted and yield spreads have widened enormously. Our example was a trading day in which the 30-year US Treasury obligation (federally taxable) traded at 3.62% yield. In the same 24-hour period, the tax-free New Jersey Turnpike traded at 4.73% yield, and the taxable New Jersey Turnpike traded at 5.15%. In our view, the tax-free turnpike bonds are screaming bargains in the present climate. In fact, Cumberland owns them in clients’ accounts.
Risk management issues loom larger than usual. What do you do when the stock market has reached your next year’s target? Our target was the S&P 500 at 1700 by the end of 2014. We are there. What do you do when the outlook for earnings is starting to deteriorate? We have ratcheted back our S&P 500 estimates for this year by a couple of dollars. We still think that earnings will come in around $110, give or take $2. The picture is trending toward more softness in earnings growth.
DeleteWhat do you do when the outlook for the future earnings growth rate is also deteriorating? We base that assessment on the fact that the profit share of the GDP in the US is at the highest level it has seen in decades and the labor share is at the lowest level. That means productivity seems high and earnings that come from that profit share seem to be strong. Could the profit share go higher? Yes it could. Is that likely now? We think not. Furthermore, the ratio of the value of the entire S&P 500 index to the GDP has reached 100%. History (Ned Davis database) suggests that this is a dangerous level.
We think the profit share of the GDP is rolling over, peaking, and tipping into what might be a long-term decline from this very high level. And the labor share may be bottoming and is positioned now to start a gradual rise over time from this very low level. If this view is correct, then American companies begin to face headwinds that will slow the earnings growth rate. This is not just a day-to-day, week-to-week or month-to-month rate of change. This is strategic. What lies before us is a longer-term stretch in which the tremendous benefit to American business from central bank policy in the post-crisis period will come to an end.
Lastly, there is the issue of demographic headwinds. Rob Arnott, a guest at Leen’s Lodge this year, has offered thoughtful analysis on demographics. He notes, in his serious research, how strongly demographics have contributed, in the past, to accelerating growth rates, and he forecasts significant headwinds that demographic change may introduce into our strategic future.
Put that package together and there emerges a set of circumstances in which stocks, having risen terrifically, now look less appealing at the current price level. Certain sectors of the bond market, by contrast, look more appealing.
Consider that New Jersey Turnpike 4.73% tax-free yield. We sat in a meeting with one of our New Jersey clients and reviewed his portfolio. The client is a successful businessman. He was joined in the meeting by his financial professional. We dissected his New Jersey tax bracket. He is somewhere in the 51%-52% marginal tax bracket. He is a New Jersey resident paying federal income taxes and New Jersey taxes at the top rates. He bumps up against levels which limit his deductions and expenses when he completes his tax return. And we must add the Obamacare tax he pays. That is how his marginal tax rates reach 52%.
Sitting in that meeting, we took apart 4.73% as a yield that he can obtain by investing in a long-term debt instrument with a senior claim on the revenues of the New Jersey Turnpike. The compounding taxable equivalent yield for him is approximately 9.5%. He can get that yield year after year.
What that means is that, to scrape up a viable and comparable investment alternative, he would have to find an investment somewhere else deriving a taxable income of 9.5% and pay all of his taxes on that percentage. The residual would equal the return generated by the New Jersey Turnpike instrument. Where are you going to find such a low credit risk, high quality, and liquid investment in New Jersey to compound at a 9% or 9.5% rate pretax so that you can derive a match against the New Jersey Turnpike? I cannot see any, and neither can he. That is why we allocated in favor of his tax-free bond portfolio. Do the same math with some long-term holding and use the 20% capital gains rate. Add Obamacare tax and add NJ taxes. The case for the New Jersey Turnpike tax-free bond is still very compelling.
DeleteWe have changed our internal asset-allocation mix at Cumberland Advisors. In the beginning of this cycle, we were as high as 80% stocks in balanced accounts. That allocation has been reduced to 60%. We have taken the bond piece up to 40%. Furthermore, we have extended duration in individually managed accounts. The entire hubbub over Detroit, San Bernardino, and other specific tax-free municipal bond credit issues has provided an entry opportunity in the tax-free municipal bond market that is unparalleled except for one other time. I would characterize that other time as the "Whitney moment," when Meredith Whitney went on 60 Minutes and predicted the end of the municipal bond world. Let’s call this current time the Whitney-esque moment.
We are buyers of tax-free bonds. We have a cash reserve in our US equity and international ETF accounts. That cash reserve is higher than it has been in our accounts in quite some time. And we are going to hold that cash reserve on the sidelines for a time. We cannot say how long and we do not know when or how much will be redeployed.
We are now facing the transitional period for the central bank. We do not know who the next chairman is going to be or what the composition of the board will be. But we do know that the current wave of uncertainty will soon be cresting into decisions sure to have cascading consequences in churning markets. We have seen a lineup of commentary coming from FOMC members that suggests a form of tapering is coming.
We are not afraid of tapering. Tapering by itself is not an issue if it is coupled with an extension of the short-term interest-rate commitment. In other words, the Fed can cut the rate of additional purchases and use guidance to extend the period before and until the Fed Funds rate will be elevated from its present 0.0%-0.25% range. Some members of the FOMC are thinking that tapering means reducing the amount of stimulus but extending the time period in which it is applied. If the market grasps that concept, bonds will rally, and tax-free bonds even more so.
Think about it. If the inflation rate in the US is roughly 1% and there is a possible downward trend, then a 4.73% tax-free New Jersey bond is delivering a real return of 3.73% after taxes to a New Jersey resident. That is a phenomenally high return on an investment for someone living in New Jersey. The real return is still quite high if the inflation rate heads up to 2%. This is now a win-win for an individual investor. There are similar opportunities in jurisdictions throughout the US.
To sum this up, carefully selected bonds now offer an entry opportunity and long duration. It is critical to check the quality of credits, particularly in the municipal bond market.
Stocks require selectivity as to sector activity and many other characteristics. We have had terrific success in our US ETF portfolios this year. We do not want to give those strategically achieved profits back. So we now have a cash reserve until we get through this difficult period.
Seems reasonable for that type of fund.
DeleteAdd Kotok to the list of bulls now turning cautious. The bull market continues to let passengers off as it heads higher.
DeleteNew, improved http://www.davelandry.com/
ReplyDeleteThe service info is at the bottom of the page. Yes, that is my quote on the service page.
I like that he now shows you what he does with the service.
Nice presentation on Cumberland David. Interesting info on the Fed. You can feel it.
2nd - Not sure if you kept the nat gas trades but the chart looks excellent right here. The reversal on Thurs was great (just at Feb 2013 support) and you have a clearly defined stop out point. If Natty drops below $3.10 for 2 days I'd probably bail. Upside could be nice.
ReplyDeletePretty quiet tonight other than silver.
ReplyDeleteTaking half of the UNG/UGAZ off the table premarket on a decent 2% spike in NGas prices.
ReplyDeleteThe issue I have with a forecast of slowdown in the US is globally, economies are about to resume expansion, aren't they?
ReplyDeleteWhat does that have to do with stock or bond prices.
DeleteI think the majority of the Cumberland presentation, while supposedly fundamental, was emotional response to a substantial change in the Fed.
Rule #3. Don't fight the Fed.
Rule #1. Don't lose money.
Rule #2. See rule #1.
Don't fight the FED - Agreed
DeleteIs an emotional response to substantial change in the FED a sign of fighting the FED?
There's always something going on, we're just never privy to it(EVER!).
It could be either way, right?
DeleteIt isn't so much what actually happens, it's the response, which is usually emotional.
The Fed can jawbone it, and regardless of the actual action, the market tends to respond emotionally.
If there is uncertainty about the Fed, the makeup of the Fed, or what possible actions they may take, then risk averse managers are going to take money off the table or respond emotionally.
While I don't follow Kotok, others do and there will be other investment firms thinking the same way. Personally I will just be watching the charts to track the elephants, but I'm also aware we are at or near new highs, bonds are not far off their highs but could go either way, the VIX is very low (reversion to the mean is a concern) and the markets, net/net have been flat for a while. I don't see a reason to be certain and bold with my $$$$.
Balance of UNG/UGAZ off.
ReplyDeleteHIMX off at 6.77.
NLS- I wonder if someone made a mistake at the open.
ReplyDeleteLooks like someone dumped their position, maybe they freaked and just said F-dis?
DeleteNotice the May gap up is closed now, will the Jan gap up close? I have doubts that will happen.
DeleteChart looks like an island reversal in progress, to me.
BRCM - Wow, did you see that one or are my eyes playing tricks on me?
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/when-mom-and-pop-buy-stocks-its-time-to-sell-2013-08-12?dist=beforebell
ReplyDelete"According to the Investment Company Institute, the Great American Public has poured $92 billion into the stock market via stock mutual funds since the start of the year.
DeleteTo put that in context, in the first seven months of last year — when the market was much lower — they withdrew $180 billion. "
so net-net they have withdrawn $90 Billion since the start of last year? hardly euphoric.
by the way, this arends guy has been bearish for a while.
"Data shows that the ordinary retail public — Mom and Pop — are back on Wall Street, and how! According to the Investment Company Institute, the Great American Public has poured $92 billion into the stock market via stock mutual funds since the start of the year."
Delete$92B sounds like a lot, doesn't it? But is it, really? And the "FED is involved" argument is said to apply as well.... What's it all about?
The moms and pops I know personally, jumped back in over two years ago.
So my honest feeling is these articles are just more of the same BS noise and that at some point, something is always bound to happen.
BAP - Nich, eh?
ReplyDeleteKotok - Sounds like a great name for a mid-evil warrior.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.raymondjames.com/images/inv_strat/130812_2lg.gif
ReplyDeleteI like this chart. Gives you a sense of what normal pullbacks are like each year. 13 out of the last 16 years have had pullbacks of 10% or more. Prior to that 12 of the prior 14 years never had a 10% pullback. Something to keep in mind when bears complain about there not being a meaningful pullback yet this year and therefore we need to have one.
"13 out of the last 16 years have had pullbacks of 10% or more."
DeleteBased on that, I would place the odds of a repeat in the unlikely category.
I have my doubts about earnings for FMD being tomorrow after the close. They typically announce a week or so ahead of time and I've seen no press release. The only note I have is on my Think or Swim platform for 8/13/13 after close.
ReplyDeleteWell the earnings should be soon, so I'm not discounting the possibility of the 13th.
DeleteOkay I'll look and see if I can locate the info from my command console as well...
They have annual earnings (fiscal year end is 6/30) so they usually report in August. Typically its 45 to 60 days after quarter end.
DeleteSchwab has it as tomorrow to, but not firm.
Deletethey reported 8/14 last year and 8/30 in 2011.
DeleteI was bored this morning and bought a really small amount of MCOX at $5.9. Just sold it at $7.4. Probably should have wired my business funds into that one. yet another low float china stock.
ReplyDeleteLarge Mellons - On a lighter note, I just picked a cantaloupe that's larger then my damn head.
ReplyDeleteAnd of course my Broker's data covering FMD is scant as best, which doesn't preclude a monster rally just waiting to happen.
EWZ, BRF, BSBR, all three stopped basically at the 50 ema, all of interest if break thou.
ReplyDeleteCLF is good example of escape velocity of 50.
LTBR, vol pop stock chart, thorium, for some reason I think its dead money.
ReplyDeleteEGLE sold off on earnings, tempted.
EGLE, took a small bite
DeleteYeah, my understanding is Thorium doesn't offer any solutions.
DeleteInsider buys on NLS reported today.
ReplyDeleteLooks like an upside down bear flag to me, which makes it a bull flag. Oh, p/e seems too low as well.
DeleteInsiders forked out $160k of their own money? If correct, doesn't seem like much.... Maybe they buy more.
AA - Can of worms?
ReplyDeleteHad some time and popped over to the Sista. Nothing happening today, so I went back to Sunday. Holy cow, it was like coming home from college to hear the family arguing about the same old same old.
ReplyDeleteWell, silver is above $21 now. $20.25 was the price to beat and it did.
DeleteFMD - after the market closes on Thursday, August 15, 2013.
ReplyDeleteSubsidiaries:
DeleteUnion Federal Savings Bank - www.unionfsb.com
Tuition Management Systems - LLC www.afford.com
Cology LLC - www2.cology.com
Now, this was a big surprise:
ReplyDeleteFrom JP Morgan, "if you had money to invest for more than 10 years, what would do best?"
Only 14% picked stocks. 16% took gold, so people are still on that train. But 26% said cash, so many people really don't have faith.
Amazing. Again shows this bull should have a long way to go.
https://twitter.com/huber57/status/367077180804567040/photo/1
That's IF you trust JPM as a reliable source.
DeleteSCCO - This one's been taking off.
ReplyDeleteNLS - Wow, shoulda loaded up. Almost did, too. Damn, Lumpy!
ReplyDeleteSold it at $6.94. Will re-enter if it drops to $6.6/$6.7.
DeleteAnother nice trip on the TBT.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I was thinking of trading in & out of that one in order to hedge my NLY.
DeleteS&P - That inverted H&S recently formed suggests roughly 120~130 points of upside from the neckline, looks like.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. On a daily 6 mos chart I see a dbl top, loss of momentum and sideways range.
DeleteLooks like an continuation IH&S, left shoulder May, right shoulder now, head June with upward slope neckline.
DeleteConsolidation above old highs. Just like every other time over the past X years.
DeleteMaybe. I just follow the arrows (and the sectors)and keep an eye on the MA's and angles. Every once in awhile I look at Twiggs money flow. If momentum picks up, my current holdings should do well and there will be more set-ups. If not then I'll get stopped out. I don't have a crystal ball.
Deletelonger term trend is up. daily noise is just that in my opinion. i too don't have a crystal ball.
DeleteEGLE - Sure does look like a potential entry here...
ReplyDeleteIn a lot of support area, you place your bet and honor your stops. Maximus
ReplyDeleteBSBR, BB find, Tweedy's 13F shows they bought 40 mil shares of $244 mil this last Q. Very interesting on pullback here too.
SPX having a hard time doing anything here, churning.
Sorry that's EGLE, CP, in support area above. thought I hit reply
DeleteBSBR, went long, filled gap from Jul 22.
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Yep, it just came back and kissed the 20SMA, now ready for the ride higher.
ReplyDeleteGood eye on the gap, overlooked that one. A couple of volume spikes there now too, could be the signal. I'm gonna wait and see, maybe I can get it cheaper but doubt it.
DeleteTrying to not get too deep till I see how FMD earnings go.
VMW - That thing kinda kicked ass and took names, didn't it?
ReplyDeleteBy Ira Harris
ReplyDeleteNotes From Underground: Global Macro In a World of Rising Big Data
The new buzz word from the realm of the “talking heads” is BIG DATA. When we mention FACEBOOK and the other social media companies, the discussion leads to big data. The issue of Snowden and the NSA is the U.S. Government’s collection of vast amounts of personal data on U.S. citizens in the name of national security and preventing possible acts of terror. Ultimately, the discussion is about the ability of computers to search through ginormous amounts of data and find patterns that will reveal threatening behavior. In the May/June issue of Foreign Affairs, Kenneth Cukier and Viktor Mayer-Schoenberger wrote an article, “The Rise of Big Data.” It is an essay adapted from a book they wrote. Three key points are outlined:
1.Collect a lot of data rather than rely on small samples;
2. Not be concerned about how pristine the data may be and through algorithms sort through vast amounts of data regardless how messy it may be because quantity is more important than quality;
3. (THIS IS KEY FOR THE REALM OF GLOBAL MACRO FINANCIAL WORLD) “IN MANY INSTANCES,WE WILL NEED TO GIVE UP OUR QUEST TO DISCOVER THE CAUSE OF THINGS,IN RETURN FOR ACCEPTING CORRELATIONS.”
This has been the rise of so much pain for many QUALITY analysts over the last half decade. Many trades get decimated as algos wreak havoc in the search of correlations. The ultimate example of this–RISK ON, RISK OFF. Fundamentals don’t matter in a market searching for correlative relationships. In support of the BIG DATA crowd the authors note that while “knowing ” causes for market moves is desirable “… causes are often extremely hard to figure out, and many times, when we think we have identified them, it is nothing more than a self-congratulatory illusion.” The work of Cukiera and Mayer-Schoenberger reflect the battlefield of investing. Fundamental traders must always use technicals to set loss parameters and as algos destroy value through the constant search for correlation. We must be prepared to allow the markets to bring prices to an absurd level.
Recognizing the presence of absurd pricing is a great way to play the other side of the algo trade.
DeleteLong NLS again at $6.71. Lowered cost basis $.23
ReplyDeleteAdded more at $6.69.
Deletehttp://fundamentalis.com/
ReplyDeleteYeah, so much for fear mongering, huh?
DeleteNot sure if anyone still follows, but good numbers out of SORL this morning.
ReplyDeleteI do kind of like that sector, but there are others that have really advanced technology that is not easily duplicated.
DeleteCompare SORL to SMP, for instance.
FMAR - Oops, there she goes.....
ReplyDeleteWhich day of the week is the up day?
ReplyDeleteI recall until recently it was Tuesday, but now it seems to have been rescheduled to Thursday?
Added NLS at $6.59.
ReplyDeleteEGLE sold, probably early, may try to buy back if it comes in 2-4%
ReplyDeleteAdded NLS at $6.52.
ReplyDeleteDoubled my position in ARR @ 4.36.
ReplyDeleteI'm gonna have to buy that one too, if they insist on keeping it this low for very much longer.
Deletehttp://stocktwits.com/message/15188593
DeleteI think if this is the case and it marks a bottom no different than what we saw in Gold recently, then a stock like ARR should do well...as well as the overall market...unless bonds go up because the market is going down. Confusing stuff but really I wouldn't be surprised to see TLT do well in the very short term.
DANG...S2 is 9.92
ReplyDeleteReopening a position in HIMX @ 6.70...
ReplyDeleteThat was a hell of an open this morning.
DeleteYeah, WTF was that move about?
DeletePretty high volume for that to be marked up so much.
DeleteCSCO looks interesting here in the $23's. trades at 11 times free cash flow.
ReplyDeletePicked up some at $23.93.
DeleteAdded at $23.79
DeleteAdded more at $23.8
Delete$38 Billion net cash, $10.5 to $11 Billion Free Cash Flow, $127 Billion valuation.
DeleteDividend has increased 100% over the past year and is now 2.8%. This is kind of a no brainer in my opinion.
DeleteAdded more at $23.73
DeleteThat gap scares the wee wee out of me.
DeletePM's - Okay, so when's the next leg down gonna start?
ReplyDeleteThis is me:
ReplyDelete"Many traders fear buying a market that has already broken out — instead, they often get chopped up within a trading range attempting to get positioned before the breakout, then they miss the move when it happpens. Any period of weakness in a strong advancing trend is a buying opportunity."
With a few caveats this is true. Breakouts are prone to failure. Trading ranges at all time highs can also be transitions. At the top of the range you can feel like a genius and at the bottom it can be scary. The bottom of the range does have a well defined entry and stop though.
Delete"Any period of weakness in a strong advancing trend is a buying opportunity."
The key thing is three words: "strong advancing trend". It can be argued that a trading range is not a strong advancing trend. If it was easy anyone could do it.
I would agree with that approach.
DeleteAlso, I like buying stocks in long basing patterns after a large downturn - although that was more a 2009 - 2011 strategy and hard to find stocks like that now.
The thing I find hard about buying trading patterns is just what you say though CP. That is why I believe understanding the fundamentals and value helps you to make the right decision.
IS it breaking out and cheap? Then probably good to buy. Is it breaking out with no valuation support, much riskier.
In regards to this, PM's do seem to be bouncing, but I think we get a long at least year-long grind-out bottom before they are completely disregarded and ready to buy.
DeleteI bet the market smokes Ellison for attempting to lay waste to AAPL?
ReplyDeleteI saw that too. He's really strange.
DeleteHe's got crazy eyes, they're bloodshot too, like substance dependency style.
DeleteFSYS - Took off, huh?
ReplyDeleteCSCO now $24.25 in pre-market.
ReplyDeleteLooks like good buys last night TOF.
Trying BSBR @ 5.83.
ReplyDeleteGood luck - for both of us!
DeleteI need something to keep GMO company.
DeleteCredit Suisse Hedge Fund Index up 4.6% for the year compared to 19.6 for the S&P.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hedgeindex.com/hedgeindex/en/indexoverview.aspx?cy=USD&indexname=HEDG
Hard to imagine why people invest in most of these funds anymore.
So what's a mother to do? I know he can get the job, but can he do the job?
DeleteSome gaps down to fill, BSBR is one.... Hmm...
ReplyDeleteI should still have an GTC bid on this one, @ $5.30
DeleteORCL - Ha, Smoke him boys!
ReplyDeleteSold CSCO at $24.6 this morning.
ReplyDeleteactually looks like $24.55 but who's counting. 3.5% in one day on a big stock like is hard to beat.
DeleteNice trade! Like parallel parking an oil tanker.
DeleteHa! :)
DeleteThat's a good visual.
DeleteNLS had an upgrade today to Buy with a $9 target. Let's see if the stock can hold in the green today. If it does and the market bounces from here this is one I would look at.
ReplyDeletePIE - Got whacked as well.
ReplyDeleteOkay, so I'm wondering if there's something going on I don't know about.....
BSBR - 80/20 rule might hold up here.... Good place to try your hand.
ReplyDeleteXLF - Ouch.... What was it JPM "tweeted" just yesterday?
ReplyDeleteLast night I was looking closely at the action in 1995 to get an idea for how this might pan out in the case that this is another buying opportunity. I know it's dangerous to do this but it got me thinking yesterday after looking at how many years in the past 15 had 10%+ corrections that if this year is like 1995 or another year where we only get a 6% correction then what might happen. In 1995, after a long run all year, the market traded sideways for about 2 months in Sept > Nov. It definitely looked like it was topping out. There were negative divergences everywhere and while I didn't trade then I would have to imagine the traders of that day were all screaming that it was going to crash like in 1987 and how momentum was gone. The market pulled in about 2 or 3%, RSI_EMA hit 30 (buy signal) on a big down day that finished in the middle of the day's range and then that was it. From there the market went up 10% more into the end of the year.
ReplyDeleteToday the market is down big, RSI_EMA hit 30 just today, momentum appears to be gone, negative divergences are everywhere, people are talking about 1987 style crashes, Hindenburg omens etc and traders are bearish. History doesn't repeat but it does often rhyme.
My strategy during this "downturn" has been to buy only those stocks with very low RSI_EMA readings that have recently crashed. This strategy seems to be working well (NLS, CSCO) so far.
ReplyDeleteProbably would be a good one to listen to:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.moneyshow.com/eShow/san_francisco/moneyshow/workshop_details.asp?wid=559B375CE0E441D483E432E6DEBE941A
http://news.yahoo.com/bolivia-records-aymara-herder-123-years-old-202553434.html
ReplyDeleteI hear 120 is the new 110.
I'm not great at math but if he has a 27 year old grandson then that means he must have had his son at like 70 right?
XHB and IYT putting in reversals. Will be interesting to see if the market takes comfort in this...
ReplyDeleteHousing may have bottomed out here. Same with bonds. Be careful getting bearish.
ReplyDeletePHM big outside day, want to buy here, only thing holding me back is OP ex, but wish I would have jumped earlier.
DeleteCAM, I own this and doubled down the other day, they totally undercut the lows today to run stops.
ReplyDeleteInteresting trade here with a stop of 56.29 if you want to play tight. Also a lot of vol at this price level.
CP, SCCO, that chart does look good here. The drawback is the location of the mines, but pays 11% div.
ReplyDeleteNCQ for you small cap copper boys.
new post
ReplyDelete