Tuesday, September 10, 2013

09/10/13 Play It Again, Sam

Reopening GDX @ 26.55 (about a -4.5% discount to yesterday’s exit). Reopening RYPMX at the close. Sizing both positions at half my previous holdings. (a) I like the fact that today’s pullback hit (and undercut) the ‘0.618 Fibonacci’ point (more on that in a future email). (b) More selling may ensue on Wednesday, but my perspective today is to ‘add on further weakness.’ Hence the 50% position size.
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84 comments:

  1. KyleSeptember 10, 2013 at 4:25 PM

    GDX -- Looks like somewhat of a failed IHnS breakout ...

    http://www.screencast.com/t/XZddBZ4DJ

    ReplyDelete
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    1. ChickenpookieSeptember 10, 2013 at 8:17 PM

      That's the fat pitch, precisely where you'd want to step up to the plate, right? Swing, batter, swing! :)

      Delete
  2. ChickenpookieSeptember 11, 2013 at 6:47 AM

    SGG - Breaking upward?

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  3. MarkWSeptember 11, 2013 at 7:11 AM

    Note to research team. Pls. have a report on my desk by lunch time. VICL.

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    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieSeptember 11, 2013 at 7:20 AM

      I dunno, was that down on good news or down on bad? Either way, it's not encouraging my funny bone. :(

      Delete
  4. ChickenpookieSeptember 11, 2013 at 7:17 AM

    ARR - Placed a stinky at $4.11, someone in the crowd seems to like that number and tomorrow is ex-div so that would put the basis at $4.04, which is a good support area.

    In addition, the 10yr seems to be at support as well. The risk is, nobody seems to know what damage has been done to mREIT's yet?

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  5. ChickenpookieSeptember 11, 2013 at 7:19 AM

    SGEN - This one Cramer pumped, but doesn't the IH&S make it look like it's going to $55's?

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  6. UnknownSeptember 11, 2013 at 9:28 AM

    Seems like I every stock I look at these days is running away from me before I buy it.

    Frustrating...

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    Replies
    1. AnonymousSeptember 11, 2013 at 9:32 AM

      Tell me about it.

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieSeptember 11, 2013 at 9:57 AM

      Yeah, I'm getting the itchy finger to short the SPX or something.

      Delete
  7. ChickenpookieSeptember 11, 2013 at 9:54 AM

    Okay, so as usual I'm clueless as to whether I'm being insulted or assaulted.

    It's a really nice day here today and there's nobody on the lake. I should be out skiing.

    ReplyDelete
  8. ChickenpookieSeptember 11, 2013 at 9:58 AM

    ARO - Seriously, you guys fully discount any potential for an island reversal play?

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  9. ChickenpookieSeptember 11, 2013 at 10:00 AM

    ALDW - And then there's this one, is it about to get clobbered, just maybe?

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  10. AnonymousSeptember 11, 2013 at 10:09 AM

    http://www.moneyshow.com/video/VideoNetwork/100/9344/Coming-Soon:-S_and_P-Over-2-000/

    ReplyDelete
  11. ChickenpookieSeptember 11, 2013 at 10:44 AM

    1691 is next resistance, I think.

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  12. ChickenpookieSeptember 11, 2013 at 10:52 AM

    OSTK - Okay, WTF? I'm gonna wait and see, maybe WS turds are gonna smack this thing down with their ridiculous monkey business?

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    Replies
    1. AnonymousSeptember 11, 2013 at 12:34 PM

      rough day. shouldn't have known yesterday was a fake.

      Delete
  13. ChickenpookieSeptember 11, 2013 at 11:14 AM

    AGO - Reaching bargain territory here?

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  14. ChickenpookieSeptember 11, 2013 at 11:32 AM

    UHS - Okay guys, here's another idea I came up with. I happened to be at the hospital a couple days ago and noticed one of their trucks delivering hospital supplies, or that's what I think they were doing.....

    ReplyDelete
  15. 2nd_aveSeptember 11, 2013 at 12:39 PM

    (a) Closing GDX @ 26.76 (+0.8%). I had expected a much stronger rally (short squeeze, actually).
    (b) I now plan to exit RYPMX at the close (rather than add to the position). Why?
    a. >9% of RPYMX consists of shares in FCX (copper), which (unlike gold/silver miners) is spiking strongly today (+3% at the moment). In fact, it’s now up +7% over 4 straight days of gains, and I don’t expect that to continue much longer.
    b. The lack of a squeeze (shorts displaying no fear) forces me to rethink my position.
    c. Trading is all about changing perspectives on a dime. What was ‘true’ yesterday often becomes irrelevant a day later.

    ReplyDelete
  16. AnonymousSeptember 11, 2013 at 4:30 PM

    Look at where HIMX closed today and look at the max chart:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=HIMX+Interactive#symbol=himx;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;

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  17. AnonymousSeptember 11, 2013 at 4:32 PM

    I bought some MBI today around $11.4X. Let's see if this was a fake breakdown.

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    1. ChickenpookieSeptember 11, 2013 at 6:40 PM

      Wow, similar to AGO, that chart. And big volume today as well.

      Delete
  18. 2nd_aveSeptember 11, 2013 at 4:50 PM

    RYPMX closed up +0.92%. One-day gain for the port (which included ancillary trades in several individual mining stocks) was +0.5%. I notice the DJIA closed up +0.89%! But I'm happy with a fractional gain trading positions in an out-of-favor sector.

    ReplyDelete
  19. 2nd_aveSeptember 11, 2013 at 4:54 PM

    HIMX off after hours @ 9.17. +37.5% on the trade.

    wtf? I had 1000 shares remaining in the big guy's account (opened August 8 @ 6.67). There's no way I would have been able to hold a six-figure position in this stock the past month without losing sleep. It dropped -15% post earnings in mid-August, before ultimately hitting +37.5% today. At the very least, I would have sold somewhere around +5%. That's just the way the human brain is wired.

    ReplyDelete
  20. ChickenpookieSeptember 11, 2013 at 6:46 PM

    JO - Have I been drinking the worng beverage?

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  21. MarkWSeptember 11, 2013 at 7:28 PM

    UberFacts ‏@UberFacts 1h

    Research concludes that "highly cheerful" people tend to die younger.
    *******

    Good.

    ReplyDelete
  22. MarkWSeptember 11, 2013 at 7:43 PM

    I wonder if SD really has $1B in cash.

    ReplyDelete
  23. ChickenpookieSeptember 11, 2013 at 8:35 PM

    PCP - Flying high, again.

    ReplyDelete
  24. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 6:24 AM

    JO - Coffee futures down again to complete the fakeout, LOL!

    ReplyDelete
  25. 2nd_aveSeptember 12, 2013 at 6:27 AM

    Miners off again.

    ReplyDelete
  26. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 6:32 AM

    GDX - 2nd stepped off the train track at just the right moment....

    ReplyDelete
  27. MarkWSeptember 12, 2013 at 6:35 AM

    What was that note from Pimco about selling T's and buying MBS' ?

    ReplyDelete
  28. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 6:36 AM

    ARR - Too late to catch this months div, but I've got a bid at $3.95 that hopefully gets hit later today. Rates are down, so this may be a pipe dream.

    ReplyDelete
  29. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 6:49 AM

    NBG - "National Bank of Greece: Earnings recovery may slow given Turkish outlook"

    ReplyDelete
  30. 2nd_aveSeptember 12, 2013 at 6:51 AM

    Gold off -35 (-2.5%), silver off -0.90 (-4%). Miners off -4%. The ability (actually, the willingness) of a trader to change perspective/direction on a dime is critical. And much of it is just luck.

    ReplyDelete
  31. MarkWSeptember 12, 2013 at 6:54 AM

    AUMN- Someone is putting up a stand at 1.04 the past couple of days.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MarkWSeptember 12, 2013 at 6:57 AM

      No, not a lemonade stand funny guy.

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 7:05 AM

      For some reason, lots of stocks seem to resist dropping under $1 for good amounts of time, One example is PAL and another is GMO (dig, dig, jab, jab :)).

      Delete
  32. 2nd_aveSeptember 12, 2013 at 7:06 AM

    SLW @ 24.17...

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  33. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 7:07 AM

    MBI - This darling is already through the first turn, guys.....

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    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 7:16 AM

      AGO is following MBI now..........

      Delete
    2. UnknownSeptember 12, 2013 at 7:32 AM

      For AGO, I think the stock has been pricing in the Detroit news (not bad) Puerto Rico news (more risk, but manageable) the last few months. Hopefully it is over now, unless something worse pops up. In general, the improving economy will help the municipalities and states, so should reduce the risk of future claims and drive the price higher. Still think this could double over the next 2 or 3 years.

      Delete
    3. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 8:04 AM

      Puerto Rico, eh? What a pure coincidence.... I was thinking of what BACML said recently, basically get long PR, a bank there.

      Delete
  34. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 7:19 AM

    I hear Meatloaf playing again....

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  35. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 7:30 AM

    OCLR - Half of position off here.....

    ReplyDelete
  36. UnknownSeptember 12, 2013 at 7:41 AM

    Honestly, not sure what to do here.

    A lot of stocks have gone up and are no longer cheap, but not expensive either, and if the economy continues to grow, will do well.

    Been finding better stock in Europe. The stocks I was thinking of buying are:

    EONGY - the German utility
    SCGLY - French Bank Societe General
    FIATY - Fiat Cars

    All are up around 10% in the last 3 or 4 days - can't buy after that kind of a move.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. AnonymousSeptember 12, 2013 at 8:55 AM

      I've sat in disgust watching VE go higher and higher and higher. I've been trying to see if they are somehow involved with the mobile internet.

      Delete
    2. UnknownSeptember 12, 2013 at 9:27 AM

      I look at the Euro-ETF's like EWP, EWI, EWG, etc. and they've all rocked higher this month and you think there should be some sort of a pullback, but really their chart patterns aren't very different from when they bounced in July and they went for a lot longer than they have so far, so maybe this does go a lot further still.

      Still, better to wait from a risk/reward point in my view.

      Delete
    3. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 9:54 AM

      VE is water infrastructure, and they have exposure to China as well. But, I have a feeling having exposure there can be a double edged sword as Asian countries in my experience are interested in exporting goods and services, and importing only nonrecurring phenomenon.

      Delete
  37. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 8:01 AM

    Any discernible patterns? All I see is prices moving up AND down.

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  38. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 9:00 AM

    1691 Above is bull territory, so bears will pile on there.

    ReplyDelete
  39. UnknownSeptember 12, 2013 at 9:29 AM

    Going to stop watching the market and go close my pool instead. Summer is pretty much over up here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 9:49 AM

      I measured water temp last week, was still 85*F, maybe it still is. My lake is a heated lake, so it helps.

      Delete
    2. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 9:59 AM

      Down a little, heater intake is 81*F and discharge is 97*F

      Delete
    3. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 10:15 AM

      Flow is ~45,000 gallons/min.

      Delete
    4. UnknownSeptember 12, 2013 at 10:18 AM

      What lake is that?

      Delete
    5. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 10:54 AM

      This one:

      https://www.dom.com/about/stations/nuclear/north-anna/waste-heat-treatment-facility.jsp

      Delete
    6. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 11:02 AM

      I might've under reported that flow rate. It could be higher, up to 2 million gpm @ full operation, memory is vague at times.

      Return flow was high last time we looked, return was turbulent.

      Delete
  40. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 10:02 AM

    So how much is silver priced in Yen, has it risen to y125 yet?

    ReplyDelete
  41. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 10:37 AM

    The media can legally mislead you on purpose:

    http://www.relfe.com/media_can_legally_lie.html

    ReplyDelete
  42. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 11:08 AM

    ERY - Perking up a bit?

    ReplyDelete
  43. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 11:13 AM

    HII - Another one to be disgusted over.

    ReplyDelete
  44. 2nd_aveSeptember 12, 2013 at 11:26 AM

    SLW off @ 24.22...

    ReplyDelete
  45. MarkWSeptember 12, 2013 at 11:28 AM

    VE- I think they sold their "LT".

    ReplyDelete
  46. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 11:50 AM

    NES - Closed that gap down, eh?.....

    ReplyDelete
  47. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 11:53 AM

    AUMN - The 101 South....

    I bet SPX closes green?

    ReplyDelete
  48. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 11:57 AM

    CKH - R&R, will open soon at $70?

    ReplyDelete
  49. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 1:35 PM

    TGIBF!

    ReplyDelete
  50. AnonymousSeptember 12, 2013 at 1:37 PM

    I went back on the UGAZ train today. Bought a ticket for $17.94

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. MarkWSeptember 12, 2013 at 2:36 PM

      Dude, I friggin looked at UGAZ this am and thought of you. Too funny...

      Delete
    2. AnonymousSeptember 12, 2013 at 3:04 PM

      ha. i almost bought before the report but decided not to for some reason. only picked up 2k shares.

      Delete
  51. UnknownSeptember 12, 2013 at 2:40 PM

    From Seeking Alpha:

    4:41 PM
    AMBC
    Puerto Rico is not Detroit
    "The principal difference between Detroit and Puerto Rico is that Detroit wanted to default and Puerto Rico doesn't want to default," writes Christian Herzeca. Puerto Rico cannot file for Chapter 9 and has no desire to face creditors in a restructuring outside of a court-supervised process.Puerto Rico clearly faces issues, but its pension reform concluded earlier this year shows the territory not only needs public finance markets, but - unlike Detroit - places a good deal of importance on continued access to them.Bond insurers Ambac (AMBC), Assured Guaranty (AGO), and MBIA (MBI) have all taken a hit of late over Puerto Rico worries. Might there be an opportunity?See also: Puerto Rico concerns are overdone, and the panic may be helping the bond insurers.

    ReplyDelete
  52. MarkWSeptember 12, 2013 at 2:58 PM

    XONE- Looks like some insider selling spooked this one. Kinda interesting for a trade.

    ReplyDelete
  53. ChickenpookieSeptember 12, 2013 at 4:50 PM

    UHS - Have you guys looked this one over at all, these companies can get hitting on all eight and really crank out profits or is there just too much competition?

    I kinda think they're in a good position.

    ReplyDelete

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