no you're not. it's one of the more frustrating periods of late that i've seen in a while. i can't tell you how many times i have gains on stocks that are gone within a few hours and vice versa. i kind of think its part of the transition phase the market is going through as it continues to mature into the final rally.
I ended up selling my ZGNX at breakeven. My thinking is there is definitely going to be an equity raise. I watched the equity raises at NSPH and ACAD and each one of those were done at prices that the market came back and tested and that's where I'll look to re-enter.
(a) Miners never disappoint! Gold -2% to 1322, Silver -5% to 21.90, GDX -4% to 25.17, SLW -7% to 22.65. Is it time to buy? Nah. We can always count on miners to exceed expectations. (b) AA pulling back to 9.32. Should prices retreat near 9, I’ll reopen the second half-position. (c) I still think both stocks and bond remain ‘overbought’ (whatever that means).
Didn't end up selling MET today. Down 3% on the weak earnings. I hope it is not the start of a downtrend, but I don't think it is as the earnings really weren't that bad. I think I will have a better selling opportunity.
Okay, I'm trying to catch up.... Was outside the second half of the day, it was 70F! Trying to get some stuff done before the bad weather comes..........
Not sure if you guys noticed but the Sensex (India) hit an all time high. I mentioned it back in the spring that this sucker looked exactly like the Transport index before it broke to new highs: http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXBOM%3ASENSEX&ei=kLVzUuDTLcXp0QHfgwE
This is very bullish for anything related to global trade (including dry bulk shippers) in my opinion.
Interesting that the India ETF's like PIN are still 35% below their 2008 highs - must be because of the decrease in value of the Indian Rupee.
Not sure where the Rupee goes next - sound like the government in India is a mess, but could be a good candidate for a bounce if they can straighten things out.
NWLI - Still wondering if $200 is a good entry, or if I should hold out for better. If it's worth 2x current value then $4 is immaterial and we're just witnessing a bit of a pre-earnings squeeze.
I like the insider ownership on this one, looks like 34%, that's pretty good.....
SYNC: I think this sucker is going to be a good trade soon...just can't figure out if I should wait for a potential crash on earnings day. They have $1.35/share in cash and no debt and are around cash flow breakeven.
Just turned on CNBC for the first time in a while. They're apparently on the hunt for bubbles and there's lots of talk about bubbles. Shit this bull might be alive for a good while longer if that's the case.
Bought some YRCW at $8.99. I will stop out on a close yesterdays lows. Otherwise, I think yesterday could have been a bottom and we will see another bottoming tail hammer today (ie. flat close)
This is a tough one man. Probably will cut losses by end of the day. Tiny position but there's just zero bounce in this thing. Flip side of the run up I guess.
I put 35% in it over the past 3 days. Up 8.6% in 3 days and not taking profits is greedy right? The way the market works, though, it's probably not. Whats the hardest trade right now? Holding?
I think this sector is very similar to the solars and housing over the past 2 years...in the early shakeout stage after the first big rally. I went in thinking this so I'm holding...which means I will definitely have to deal with frustration next week. The market always does its best to shake people out.
I don't know about you, but for me it was a very small position. And I still got shaken out. Traders like jesse have the uncanny ability to go all-in on something like this, sit through a -30% drawdown, and emerge with a +100% gain. I can't do it.
TWTR- I filled out an COTP for the ipo and was rejected because of the way I answered the questions beofre you are allowed to place an order. I used another account and changed one answer and got in.
I still can't figure out what has happened the last week to set off this stampede. Nice job on BALT. I would have taken a position yesterday but earnings scared me off.
CP, not that NWLI is a trading stock, but it has generally moved up on earnings the last few quarters and they should be out in the first half of November
Have you noticed that buy-and-hold has not worked with the miners? You have to trade the cycles. If you'd bought the XAU in 1983 and held, then (not counting dividends) you would be flat today.
"If you'd bought the XAU in 1983 and held, then (not counting dividends) you would be flat today."
hmmm whenever i hear a statement like that it makes me interested from a long perspective...i remember clearly those comments on so many stocks like that back in late 08 / early 09.
I actually looked at the XAU closer and it looks like it's not that low compared to where it was over the past 30 years. Basically right smack dab in the middle: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^XAU+Interactive#symbol=^xau;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
With a chart like this is it safe to assume these guys never create value over time or are they really in a 30 year secular bear market before going on a true bull market?
BALT - Ramp into earnings has begun?
ReplyDeleteBottoming hammers on almost all dry bulk shippers. Still early in the day though.
Deletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-31/birinyi-says-s-p-500-will-rise-3-to-1-820-in-next-three-months.html
ReplyDeleteANV - Traded in the $40's not so long ago............
ReplyDeleteLOL, just realized I have an pending GTC order for this one at $3.82 Dang if it didn't move closer to that price today.....
DeleteANV - This one produces gold by the gallon, apparently:
Delete"Allied Nevada achieved record gold production and sales in Q3 of 2013; commissioning new 21,500 gallons per minute capacity Merrill-Crowe Plant"
DCTH - Here's a turd for ya..........
ReplyDeleteWow, Mark looks like you son wants to be a corn trader in the pits.
ReplyDeleteNIHD getting smoked.
IRM fly's in pre hours and gives it all back and then some, both off earnings.
Been watching IRM closely. My old boss still has a big stake in it and must be going crazy.
DeleteNo kidding the chart since SEP is like a roller coaster and today's bar, WTF.
DeleteIn all my years of this I'm just amazed at the way stocks move in today's market, I must be getting old for this stuff.
no you're not. it's one of the more frustrating periods of late that i've seen in a while. i can't tell you how many times i have gains on stocks that are gone within a few hours and vice versa. i kind of think its part of the transition phase the market is going through as it continues to mature into the final rally.
DeleteLOTS of bottoming hammers in individual small cap stocks today that I follow.
ReplyDeleteI know you won't believe it but YRCW is one of them...
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/greed-dead-why-one-pro-says-bull-market-141235619.html
ReplyDeleteI ended up selling my ZGNX at breakeven. My thinking is there is definitely going to be an equity raise. I watched the equity raises at NSPH and ACAD and each one of those were done at prices that the market came back and tested and that's where I'll look to re-enter.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsS_W5jN-vU
ReplyDelete(a) Miners never disappoint! Gold -2% to 1322, Silver -5% to 21.90, GDX -4% to 25.17, SLW -7% to 22.65. Is it time to buy? Nah. We can always count on miners to exceed expectations.
(b) AA pulling back to 9.32. Should prices retreat near 9, I’ll reopen the second half-position.
(c) I still think both stocks and bond remain ‘overbought’ (whatever that means).
Added to SLW @ 22.67, offed it all @ 22.81.
DeleteABX with a $3 billion equity issue after the close to pay down debt and postponing their giant pasqua lama mine.
DeleteSo, reduced supply and improves the balance sheet. This is the type of stuff we need to see to make the miners buyable.
@ $18.35.
DeleteDidn't end up selling MET today. Down 3% on the weak earnings. I hope it is not the start of a downtrend, but I don't think it is as the earnings really weren't that bad. I think I will have a better selling opportunity.
ReplyDeleteYRCW- Another fund cash out entirely the other day. 550K shares @ about $9.50. Man, talk about crazy. I wonder what they know.
ReplyDeleteBTW, this was released well after the close today.
DeleteMan, there were some WIPE OUTS on earnings today.
ReplyDeleteAnything worth looking at?
DeleteAnyone we know?
DeleteSorry, nothing we really track, but a lot of 20% hits and more AH's.
DeleteOkay, I'm trying to catch up.... Was outside the second half of the day, it was 70F! Trying to get some stuff done before the bad weather comes..........
ReplyDeleteSo PM's were today's price leader again, eh?
http://wsw.com/webcast/europac3/BALT/
ReplyDeleteNQ - Not just $14, but nearly $15
ReplyDeleteNQ premarket $15.20. Up 72% from when I bailed. Never fails.
ReplyDeleteLOL, I thought you were still riding NQ....
DeleteANV - Lowered my GTC to $1
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Entered an GTC @ $200, what do you guys think of this price?
NQ - So was MW proven wrong, or what?
BALT - Looks like it did reverse yesterday.
ReplyDeleteFSLR - On the volume list, ALU/ABX/T are some others
ReplyDeleteCanada manufacturing growth at highest in 2-1/2 years in Oct
MEMC - Did these guys change their ticker? Uhhh....
ReplyDeleteFSLR - Is that an C&H? Flag looks like target is $60 snooze and lose, I guess.
I wasn't even 'allowed' to submit a COTP for TWTR! I don't get it, I lied on all the questions.
ReplyDeleteI'm in!! OK, I answered the questions in another account differently...try to guess which one.
DeleteCP - MEMC = SUNE
ReplyDeleteNot sure if you guys noticed but the Sensex (India) hit an all time high. I mentioned it back in the spring that this sucker looked exactly like the Transport index before it broke to new highs:
http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXBOM%3ASENSEX&ei=kLVzUuDTLcXp0QHfgwE
This is very bullish for anything related to global trade (including dry bulk shippers) in my opinion.
I agree.
DeleteInteresting that the India ETF's like PIN are still 35% below their 2008 highs - must be because of the decrease in value of the Indian Rupee.
DeleteNot sure where the Rupee goes next - sound like the government in India is a mess, but could be a good candidate for a bounce if they can straighten things out.
Right, I have to think the issue with trying to participate in the Indian economy using US ETF's is the Rupee valuation.
DeleteTTM is near 52wk highs...
Mark - what do you mean by that post about TWTR?
ReplyDeleteI think he opened an TWTR account? Or, maybe he's long TWTRQ? :)
DeleteI think Mark is confusing
DeleteTwitter with Twerker.
Reopened SLW @ 21.92. Opened GDX @ 24.19.
ReplyDeleteIDX - Could be a false downside breakout, else still coming to us.
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Still wondering if $200 is a good entry, or if I should hold out for better. If it's worth 2x current value then $4 is immaterial and we're just witnessing a bit of a pre-earnings squeeze.
ReplyDeleteI like the insider ownership on this one, looks like 34%, that's pretty good.....
SUNE - Oh that's right, sheesh, couldn't remember, thanks TOF.....
ReplyDeleteSYNC: I think this sucker is going to be a good trade soon...just can't figure out if I should wait for a potential crash on earnings day. They have $1.35/share in cash and no debt and are around cash flow breakeven.
ReplyDeleteJust turned on CNBC for the first time in a while. They're apparently on the hunt for bubbles and there's lots of talk about bubbles. Shit this bull might be alive for a good while longer if that's the case.
ReplyDeleteBought some YRCW at $8.99. I will stop out on a close yesterdays lows. Otherwise, I think yesterday could have been a bottom and we will see another bottoming tail hammer today (ie. flat close)
ReplyDeleteThis is a tough one man. Probably will cut losses by end of the day. Tiny position but there's just zero bounce in this thing. Flip side of the run up I guess.
DeleteClosed SLW @ 21.96, closed GDX @ 24.40.
ReplyDeleteWhat's going on with JCP?
ReplyDeleteBiggest winners on my list are the ones tied to global growth (WLT, CLF, X, BALT/EGLE).
ReplyDeleteT3d - This is what I was talking about. I guarantee that I will regret not selling BALT next week. Guarantee it.
ReplyDeleteI put 35% in it over the past 3 days. Up 8.6% in 3 days and not taking profits is greedy right? The way the market works, though, it's probably not. Whats the hardest trade right now? Holding?
DeleteI think this sector is very similar to the solars and housing over the past 2 years...in the early shakeout stage after the first big rally. I went in thinking this so I'm holding...which means I will definitely have to deal with frustration next week. The market always does its best to shake people out.
Man, they sure as ---- shook us out of NQ! I still can't believe we opened positions under 10, agreed to hold, then bailed within 24 hours.
DeleteI don't know about you, but for me it was a very small position. And I still got shaken out. Traders like jesse have the uncanny ability to go all-in on something like this, sit through a -30% drawdown, and emerge with a +100% gain. I can't do it.
DeleteTWTR- I filled out an COTP for the ipo and was rejected because of the way I answered the questions beofre you are allowed to place an order. I used another account and changed one answer and got in.
ReplyDeletedoes that mean you get allocated shares before it goes public?
DeleteNo, they just LET me actually place an order the 2nd time. I will know my allocation, if any, before it goes public.
DeleteWait so you might get shares allocated to you? How do I get in on this?
DeleteAre you drinking already?
DeleteWait a minute, of course you are...I forgot you moved! NO, I didn't get any shares and am pretty sure I wont. No go crawl back into your bottle.
DeleteSotcktwits classic...." Is YRCW related to JCP?"
ReplyDeleteTOF- You hang onto YRCW?
ReplyDeleteHell no man. I sold it at $8.74. Only had 2k shares. What a round tripper huh? Nuts
DeleteKind of looks like the 2009 chart of AIG
DeleteI still can't figure out what has happened the last week to set off this stampede. Nice job on BALT. I would have taken a position yesterday but earnings scared me off.
DeleteCP, not that NWLI is a trading stock, but it has generally moved up on earnings the last few quarters and they should be out in the first half of November
ReplyDeleteHere's an oldie but a goodie.... SQNM
ReplyDeleteHave you noticed that buy-and-hold has not worked with the miners? You have to trade the cycles. If you'd bought the XAU in 1983 and held, then (not counting dividends) you would be flat today.
ReplyDeleteThe same principle works in shorter time frames as well. The only way to have profited from miners in 2013 is to have traded the price moves.
Delete"If you'd bought the XAU in 1983 and held, then (not counting dividends) you would be flat today."
Deletehmmm whenever i hear a statement like that it makes me interested from a long perspective...i remember clearly those comments on so many stocks like that back in late 08 / early 09.
I actually looked at the XAU closer and it looks like it's not that low compared to where it was over the past 30 years. Basically right smack dab in the middle:
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^XAU+Interactive#symbol=^xau;range=my;compare=;indicator=volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
With a chart like this is it safe to assume these guys never create value over time or are they really in a 30 year secular bear market before going on a true bull market?
Love this chart resource:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.chartsrus.com/
NQ - Whoops, did MW publish an updated hit piece today at 11:00am?
ReplyDeleteBlock was on tv. Then NQ's CEO followed. The price sank after the CEO finished.
DeleteI actually think it's fun to hang out at airport bars.
ReplyDeleteWhere are you traveling to?
DeleteWhat's the saying? Stocks anticipate things 6 to 9 months in advance? Can someone please explain the reason LNG started moving up in late 2010 then?
ReplyDeleteI wonder if the same thing is happening with the dry bulk shippers. Although the BDI has started to recover
new post
ReplyDeleteSQNM - Sure did get beat up, wonder if it's deserved. No profits to infinity?
ReplyDeleteP/E's in the mid 20's - I see a bunch of these like CLC for instance, is it normal to see P/E's in the mid 20's?
ReplyDelete