Wednesday, November 6, 2013

11/7/13 Dissecting NQ Price Action

It's easy, bro. Buy 10,000 shares now @ 11 and change. Sell at the gap-up open on Thursday.

175 comments:

  1. Think I'm joking? I'm not joking. If we had what it takes to trade like that, we'd be ----ing multi-millionaires right now.

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  2. PEIX- That would be a new all time low AH's.

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    Replies
    1. yep. glad i bailed on that one.

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    2. Good move. That one just didn't feel right.

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  3. Haven't looked in detail, but the results out of the AEG look pretty good. Stock up a couple percent in Europe this morning.

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  4. Replies
    1. shit I was hoping you wouldn't sell. I kind of think it's a buy and hold at this point. Sure it could retest lows but if they can stabilize the business then the stock should eventually go up a good deal

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  5. Starter position in AA $9.05

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  6. Replies
    1. Let me know if any of you have a clue why it's selling off.

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    2. No idea. I'm taking it as profit taking with the longer term picture of mid teens in 2014. Been wanting an opportunity like this since I sold at $9.3 or so...

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  7. YRCW- Wow, who would buy in front of that news!

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  8. CNQ - "Remains a top pick on valuation".
    NLY - "Q3 earnings remain well below dividend. Core EPS of $0.28 likely interpreted as a miss. Interest spreads improve as higher rates restrain CPRs. Smaller portfolio hits earnings, though commercial helps. BV performance modestly worse than peers." Underperform

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  9. CECO- Mother of all gap fills?

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    Replies
    1. That would be interesting, and possible. I bet it doesn't completely close? No less than $4....

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  10. I guess the good economic news is convincing the market to sell before the FED tspers?

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  11. AA - That was a bear flag, I'll definitely be a buyer if the gap up closes!

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  12. Pretty scary action in the mo-mo's...

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    Replies
    1. BALT seems to be holding up fairly well so far.

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    2. I still think the dynamics of their industry have changed for the better. Obviously the stock can always go lower but the main issue with the industry for the past several years has been excess supply of ships and that is going away. The demand supply ratio is not tilted toward demand > supply. That should support spot prices even if the economy stalls out.

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    3. sorry meant to say the ratio is NOW tilted toward demand being greater than supply.

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  13. Added some BALT at $4.82

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  14. Another buy the dip day or is this the big enchilada? Down 1,000 points today? Kind of reminds me of the FB IPO day...which ironically marked a short term bottom in the market.

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  15. AA just keeps getting weaker. Weird.

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    Replies
    1. the investor day clearly didn't go well. i think it's a buying opp longer term but the analysts don't. The illustrious Wellington Shields brokerage firm downgraded them just now.

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    2. Yeah, my broker has a low-ball target on AA as well, I think they're FOS....

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    3. FOS about the POS?

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    4. Considering they loaned the full market cap value to NOR, they must believe aluminum is investment worthy.

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    5. And KALU is the highest rated aluminum producer, looks like it was a trap. It cratered on earnings then formed a bear flag, that's insulting.

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  16. VIX barely up. Are people not scared enough about a big drop?

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  17. Added some more BALT at $4.79.

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  18. Jeez I'd hate to see what the reaction would have been like if BALT reported bad earnings.

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  19. NWLI - Green now, I'm guessing positive earnings news coming.

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  20. I think someone got ahold of one of these:
    http://i.ebayimg.com/t/AC-250V-15A-on-off-on-3-Position-1P2T-SPDT-3-Terminals-Toggle-Switch-Orange-/00/s/MTEwMFgxMTAw/z/Bs8AAOxyONBSXetZ/$T2eC16hHJHEFFmRCgRTwBS(etYyzrw~~60_57.JPG

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  21. Interesting comments out of Saut:
    http://www.bankinvestmentconsultant.com/news/new-secular-bull-market-has-years-left-to-go-saut-2687186-1.html

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  22. ARNA - Reports in AH, wonder which way it goes....

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  23. ALDW - Now trading above it's opening price, bounce players?

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  24. NWLI - ""Overall, the mortality experience of our life insurance block of business is performing in line with our pricing assumptions. However, given the inherent variability of claim experience, our most recent quarterly results were impacted by a higher volume of reported death claims than we typically experience in a quarter,"

    Since too many people are dying, it sounds like the healthcare act isn't helping much(yet?). Will those young folks buy the entire package of life+health? Maybe corporate America will provide the life and leave employees to fend for themselves concerning healtcare?

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  25. Robot - Short 1746 a week ago... Wonder if shorty-pants has his bloomers in a twist?

    AUMN - Wow, that thing traded to $0.45.....

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  26. Out of AA 8.90. I don't like what I'm seeing.
    Closed TLT @ 105.79.
    Plan to close RYGBX at end of day.

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    Replies
    1. I lowered my $8.68 GTC bid to $7.77 on Murphy's blind squirrel premise.

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    2. This is all because of that LME warehousing rule. I have no idea what the impact is on the stock but my guess is this blows over and in a couple of months the stock is at new 52 week highs again.

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    3. Last I heard/read of the LMT housing rule, there were changes being proposed which might force the big boys to relinquish their control, maybe even sell some assets such as warehouses.

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  27. Have you guys looked at the sentiment readings on SPY on Stocktwits? I think this could potentially be a good indicator. Here is the link:
    http://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY

    On the right there are three tabs...click on the Sentiment tab. Sentiment is currently at 55% bears which is right around where it was at the October lows.

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  28. CCL - Surprise, surprise, looks like our gap up was closed today...

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  29. You guys buy what Saut is selling?

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  30. Emerging markets (EEM) selling off another -1.83% and likely to close near the day’s lows. Miners (GDX) off -2.5%. Nasdaq off almost -2%. Bonds are rallying today, but even bonds tend to pull back is a ‘risk off’ environment. I would be careful here. Cash can be a valuable ‘position,’ although not one touted by brokers, for obvious reasons.

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  31. (d) Downside price action is far more violent than what is seen on the way up (or as Hussman likes to remind us, investors usually fail to exit in time to avoid declines). If you’re happy with YTD gains, protect them!

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  32. WTF man, 23pts on the S&P? That sucks the big-high-hard one.

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  33. Sold the shares I bought today in BALT at $4.7 for a smallish loss. Still holding the rest from $4.5ish. Never fails that when you have a gain and don't sell you get effed and when you do it goes up 100% like CECO did.

    I picked up some more AA at $8.95. We'll see if this is a buying opportunity in about one week.

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    Replies
    1. BALT- That's hard to do. Good for you.

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    2. Right, can't hold onto anything trading at 25% value, must sell the pops to the upper trend line.

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  34. "The ECB demonstrated it was ready to act on inflation. But ECB avoided the liquidity issue, leaving markets concerned about the ECB's willingness to deliver on liquidity. The ECB's remain to be challenged on its capacity to step further into unconventional policy, if necessary."

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  35. MITK.. -.05 and 4.4M rev. That's actually not horrible.

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  36. MITK earnings were pretty good huh? Must have been the check I deposited last week via phone.

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    Replies
    1. jeez 1,420 banks signed on to mobile deposit. thats no joke. and now 14 on the bill pay. maybe we have to revisit this one?

      problem i still see is adoption rate by consumers. id have to imagine the majority of those revenues are from up front fees from banks as they pay for deposits by chunk up front

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    2. Give it time. Debello will fuck it up somehow.

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    3. looks like they added 370 banks on deposit this quarter

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    4. haha. still trades at 10X revenues.

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    5. although at 90% margins that's not that high.

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    6. I'm pretty sure they have never released reload #'s.

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    7. yeah they haven't. i don't know anyone that uses it except for my nerdy self from time to time.

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    8. I use it a few times a year. Patrica doesn't.

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  37. NES... wow, wow, wow, wow, wow....

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  38. Speaking of not using something...has anyone ever used Priceline.com? WTF is up with that company? They just keep growing and growing.

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  39. Replies
    1. I'm going for a bike ride so I don't buy any, but I bet 1.50 works short term.

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    2. Enjoy the bike ride. -40% for penny stocks can easily turn into -80%.

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  40. I bought GRPN at $8.88 and sold it at $9.13. So take that market. Jerk

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    Replies
    1. and it's at $9.3 now. Seriously, you can't make this sh*t up.

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    2. Bizzaro world.... Somebody just wanted the F**K out after already riding a 5% hit today BEFORE news.

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    3. That's why we have blog 'rules' that read 'maximum pain,' 'maximum frustration,' or just plain 'they'll ---- you up when you open, and they'll ---- you up when you close.

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    4. They'll also ---- you up between the time you open and the time you close a position. And ---- you up if you're on the sidelines.

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    5. I can't even remember which stock t3d was referring to, but I'll bet he's happy he followed the 3-day rule.

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  41. TWTR - Too funny, I guess it was mispriced by the holier than thou?

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  42. (a) TLT closed up +1.1%. One-day gain for the port somewhat >+0.6%.
    (b) AA (Alcoa). I should have left the stock alone, but having closed the last of my recent positions @ 9.91 on Monday, I reflexively reopened at what appeared to be a -10% 'sale.' A one-spin bet quickly withdrawn for a minor loss.
    (c) New targets on my watch list include VXX (a leveraged play on volatility) and EEM (Emerging Markets).
    (d) Volatility (as reflected by the VIX) has yet to spike appreciably despite the global selloff.
    (e) EEM rapidly approaching 'oversold' conditions.
    (f) Plenty of 'action' in miners today. I still expect new lows in the sector.

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  43. SRPT - This one's been getting pretty beat up.

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  44. Re AA:

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/1810492-cramers-lightning-round-alcoa-is-creeping-up-11-5-13?source=yahoo

    Stocks discussed on the Lightning Round segment of Jim Cramer's Mad Money Program, Tuesday November 5.

    Bullish Calls:

    Alcoa (AA): "Ever since they reported, that stock has been creeping up, step by step, inch by inch. Alcoa is going higher ... it is cutting costs dramatically and is linked to aerospace. Buy, buy, buy. The next stop is $12."

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    Replies
    1. I can hear the wailing in the bars downtown. 'Craaaaamerrrrr!'

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    2. haha. although i do think he's right. my guess is the LME thing was a nice solid scare tactic. a reason to sell...or in my opinion, i think today was a buying opp.

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    3. There will definitely be a buying opp. I'm just not certain one occurred today. It should at least bounce to 9.2x in the next couple of days. You know me- every day presents new opportunities, and I like to keep overnight baggage to a minimum (with the exception of mutual funds, where I have no choice).

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  45. This is an oldie:
    http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704882404578388453223129598.html#articleTabs_article%3D1

    Love these quotes:
    "The article had a number of graphs that "supported" their view including the AAII Bull-Bear Ratio which does not, in our view, have "broad accuracy." If anything it tells us that these investors are neurotic and go from one extreme to another on an almost week to week basis. "

    "everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts."

    "What we find somewhat irritating about many of these articles and attitudes is not necessarily the conclusion, but the evidence or the lack thereof. As any number of analysts have suggested, the public comes in at the top. We finished our analysis this month and [found that] sometimes the public comes in early, sometimes late. Since this data is readily available and requires relatively little analysis, it is disappointing that these analysts don't make any attempt to ascertain the facts."

    "We view all this as positive news. As long as we see caution, concern, skepticism, disbelief and dubious analysis, the market will continue higher. Interestingly, we are also encouraged by the bullish commentary for some of the same reasons."

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    Replies
    1. Dubious analysis will never go away, unfortunately. Wish I could learn how to distinguish it so I can exploit it.

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  46. BB - do you use this:
    https://origin.ih.constantcontact.com/fs183/1102151047459/img/630.png

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    Replies
    1. or this one:
      https://origin.ih.constantcontact.com/fs183/1102151047459/img/631.png

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  47. First 'gross', then 'jerk'....you channeling your inner teenage girl TOF?

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    Replies
    1. yep complete with my uggs.

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    2. Speaking of uggs, that move to $40 was a huge fakeout I'm not going to forget for a good while.

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    3. An indicator of being both charismatic and comfortable with his masculinity.

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  48. PEIX - Woulda made a decent subject for turd flippers today too.

    PAL - Pow-wow, cough, cough hack choke.

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  49. Funky outside down day on lots of sectors. We need to watch this AM's high to get long or the 50 DMA to go short.
    Lately it's been a Tale of Two Markets by Charles Dickens.

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  50. October ‘jobs’ report driving prices this morning:

    (a) Treasury yields spike, with TLT (the long bond) plummeting to 104.56. More proof of concept> take gains when you have them!
    (b) Gold replicates Thursday’s ‘black hole’ almost to the second: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
    (c) GDX/EEM may present buying opportunities today.

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  51. Replies
    1. $32M cash...but with 300M shares not so great. Say's Mexican Govt. owes them a $10M tax credit. Good luck with that.

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  52. $NES price target lowered to 2.50 by Needham. Rating buy. Too funny. It was 2.50 3 days ago! Way to chase the price down boyz.

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  53. Human nature is persistent, wonder if the algo's are on the wrong side?

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  54. Whoa, TLT bidding 103.97? That's called dodging a bullet yesterday.

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  55. Craig-Hallum Downgrades Nuverra Environmental Solutions ($NES) to Sell

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  56. SLW off @ 21.22
    GDX off @ 23.75
    AA off @ 8.90

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  57. EEM of @ 40.82. ---- it. I honestly think we sell off today.

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  58. Added a bunch of aa at 8.83. Viewing this as a potential longer term play

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  59. Replies
    1. wtf. DJIA spikes +60 in a NY minute, and VXX naturally plummets. It's all good. It's part of getting ----ed up by the market.

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    2. Ha. Yeah nuts. I think this AA is going right back up to $10. I read up a bit on this LME thing and I think this was just another selling excuse in a stock that too many people piled into all at once. This adds skepticism which as we all know is a very positive thing.

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    3. And if it gets to $10ish we all know what happens next...pullback because those that bought there want to get out at even. Then it rips to $12 and everyone kicks themselves for not being in. Same story different stock.

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  60. IBKC ripping today. Still kicking myself for not rolling the YRCW money into that back in early May. Looked closely but didn't pull the trigger. Up almost 40% since then.

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  61. VXX off @ 49.15. This ETF must rank among the Gods.

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  62. Mark - Kinda think the odds of YRCW going on a big run again are high. What do you think? See the header to this post but just replace the N and the Q for YRCW.

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    Replies
    1. In terms of sentiment I mean its pretty damn low.

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    2. Could be a good place to begin a new leg up.

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  63. Well, I see the ECB rate cut as a positive move, a necessary element towards placing europe on a growth track. So naturally the euro should've weakened. Maybe the reasons for why the market wants a stronger euro can be put on the back burner.

    The news out of Europe last night/yesterday seemed really scary though, I'm sure they succeeded in rattling some nerves.

    FBP - Wow, look at that move.

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    Replies
    1. "Well, I see the ECB rate cut as a positive move"
      They're playing the catchup game huh? If all of my friends are getting rich off internet stocks then I should too. Same game but with bigger $$ figures.

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    2. Is this brand of institutional support responsible for economic inequalities? Compare North and South Korea for example.

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  64. Regarding YRCW, heres a good article:
    http://www.logisticsmgmt.com/article/yrc_opens_talks_with_teamsters_on_more_givebacks_delays_quarterly_earnings

    If you think of the negotiating position of the company, it seems like it's pretty likely the union is going to give in. They face the risk of the company going bankrupt if they don't offer up another round of concessions. So the most likely outcome is the union offers more concessions in order for the company to renegotiate its debt and the stock flies as a result.

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    Replies
    1. Short as a % of float is over 30%. I'm very tempted to just stash 5% of the port in it and let it roll.

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    2. Put 20% on NWLI for a certain double!

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  65. IBKC - Nice C&H formation, why couldn't we imagine it at $52, or the previous cup at $45? AAAgggghhhh!!!

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  66. XLF - Bounced off $20.40 support area now headed back up.

    I think Robot is going to switch long sometime today, from short 1746 a week ago.

    Have a great weekend, guys!

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  67. Let's put this baby in gear!

    http://www.ha-ims.com/vehicle_images/1-43124.JPG

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  68. (a) The DJIA has recovered most of Thursday’s loss.
    (b) Treasurys have likewise given back all of yesterday’s gains, and then some. So I dodged a major bullet (and was well paid in the process!). TLT now a full percentage point below my initial entry on Wednesday, and over 2 percentage points below my exit on Thursday.
    (c) EEM off -0.7%.
    (d) AA (Alcoa) struggling to stay above 9.

    Very resilient market.

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    Replies
    1. AA flies next week.

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    2. hopefully not south.

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    3. Rates are headed up, the economy is gaining steam, AA will head North. IMO!

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    4. Someone tell BALT please!

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    5. BALT looks like a bull flag to me, but I worry about if Asia has already moved the harvest for this year (thus the recent strength in the dry index) or if the trend will resume? I dunno!

      DRYS looks like a bull flag too!

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  69. Heading out onto the open road!

    http://www.ha-ims.com/vehicle_images/1-43150.JPG

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    Replies
    1. Whatever happened to white sidewalls? I still have two over my ears.

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  70. bahhh i just turned on the telly and they had DRYS CEO on there. one of the dumb...err...fast money traders recommended BALT. now i'm screwed.

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  71. Replies
    1. what's up with this one?

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    2. Ad tech growth stocks are diving in sympathy after Tremor Video (TRMR -47.1%) plunged due to management's guidance for a revenue deceleration of 15% in Q4.
      The sharp declines may offer a buying opportunity in some names, depending on whether Tremor's guidance is a reflection of the company or of the broader industry. Rocket Fuel's revenue surged 132% Y/Y in Q3 and Q4 guidance was above expectations, Criteo's grew 75.4% in Q2, and analysts expect YuMe to grow revenue at a 32.5% clip in Q3.

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    3. Thank you, Mark. Excellent summary.

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  72. CC- I'm assuming you stopped out of MY a few days ago?

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  73. MITK- Today doesn't look good chart wise in bit coin terms.

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    1. Speaking of bitcoins:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Silk_Road_(marketplace)

      'Silk Road is an underground website[8] sometimes called the “Amazon.com of illegal drugs”[9] or the “eBay for drugs.”[10]'

      'From February 6, 2011 to July 23, 2013, there were 1,229,465 transactions completed on the site.
      These transactions involved 146,946 unique buyer accounts, and 3,877 unique vendor accounts.
      The total revenue generated from transactions was 9,519,664 bitcoins. Commissions collected from the sales by Silk Road amounted to 614,305 bitcoins.'

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    2. you listen to the conf call? i haven't yet. i always feel like i need to shower after i listen to debello.

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    3. Bitcoins hit a new high today. Oh well, I'm sticking to the hapless $ for now, with some paper gold/silver as a hedge. PHYS and PSLV. Do not trust the US/London banks . Canada/Sprott maybe.

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  74. I"m a little bummed at leaving gains in EEM/miners on the table this morning. On the other hand, my recent strategy of cashing in quickly saved my --- yesterday. Can you ----ing believe TLT/RYGBX dive -2.4%/-2.9% on the jobs report, giving back almost two months of gains?

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    Replies
    1. hey if it makes you feel better i have 33% of my money in BALT from $4.55 and watched it go to $5.30 and didn't sell. Now it's at $4.67.

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  75. TOF- Not yet. But I can guarantee and some point he will say ..."in fact, according to blah, blah, blah study, mobile users will land on Mars." I saw your email but my server is down. I'll shot you a note latter.

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    1. How many drinks did it take to type, 'Shot you a note latter?'

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    2. Hmm... not sure, but I can report that JB's health insurance was canceled and I'm drinking wine now.

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    3. I basically have the same coverage through Anteam Blue Cross. Short story is it's coverage for people like me who choose to pay out of pocket for small costs and have a deductible of about 1k. I'm basically self insuring the small stuff.

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  76. WTF!!!!

    "Among those who have fretted over fracking are Germany's brewers, who worry that the technique would pollute waters and taint the country’s beer."

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    Replies
    1. shouldn't it read..."fermented over fracking..."

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    2. Now that's a valid concern! They should have kept the conversation behind closed doors. These things have a way of becoming urban myths, which in this case would taint sales as well.

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  77. Mark- Have you received any letters from Anthem BC recently warning you they may terminate their relationship with Sutter Health?

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  78. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-11-04/oaktree-s-marks-buys-cheap-chinese-stocks-as-u-s-fairly-valued.html

    I agree with him which is why I'm still holding GPRC from like $1.90 and a small amount of DATE from like $6.50

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  79. http://www.gurufocus.com/news/234379/seth-klarman-finds-margin-of-safety-in-drab-miners

    jesus:
    "At 1.1% of his portfolio Novagold is Klarman’s largest miner position. After buying shares each quarter from the third of 2011 to the fourth of 2012 as the price fell, Klarman owns a total of 21,688,300 Novagold shares with an average purchase price of $6.70 per share. At the Friday share price of $2.10 he has an average loss of 69% on the stake. "

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