OK guys, other than finishing my basement I need some new ideas. Too much cash/time leads to reckless purchases of vintage pinball and slot machines...
That way, he won't be caught in a tech-support job telling custmoers how sorry he is he can't fix their problems, and maybe we finally get some s/w that actually works as advertised!
Before that dec run it had a move to 5.7 then temporary dip then run to 6.8. If earnings are good then we should see similar setup. I think they break even and double dividend
ELNK - This one is sucking big wind on the earnings, I've been experiencing one hell of a lot of "server not found" problems the past couple of weeks, too. Service sucks.
Yeah, I took it off so I'd have that cash in case of another shot at it, I got the scalp trade wrong by forgetting the $6.17 obligation wasn't the target, just an obligation. So, no damage done.
I find I usually get lost in the forest when I pay too much attention to short term gyrations on what I think is a good long term hold. Scalping stuff just makes my conviction level go down. If I sell at a short term peak and it falls 10% how do I know I'll want to get back in lower? If I sell and it goes higher and then bottoms back at where I sold I'll definitely be looking for lower prices and will miss the chance to get back in. I figure it's best to see things through til the bitter end unless something fundamentally changes. I'm still trying to improve how to do this from an emotional standpoint. Toughest part of investing.
June 28, 2013 - About this time the Reali was 2.2/$US , and today it's 2.39/$US, the peak and retest were 2.45/2.44
"June 28, 2013 The Smartest man on global capital markets Brazil: One of the benefits of massive market dislocations is that they tend to enhance transparency in terms of the true or intrinsic value of credits, asset classes, and countries. This is true of Brazil, where we are now seeing social unrest.
Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff's solution is to increase spending and social outlays; this will only be a very near-term solution, if that. The currency will remain under pressure; it may trade as low as 2.5 reais to the dollar. Some well-situated hedge fund managers have actually asked me recently to what extent I felt Brazil would have a real crisis -- for example, a run on a bank. I do not see that happening, however, current events are constructive in that they point the finger at over-regulation, excessive government at every level, and antiquated labor laws. Now that the US Fed is no longer the "bad guy," we can get sufficient introspection there that leads to substantive change. I have been very negative on Brazil versus Andean/Mexico for several years. Now, however, it would appear to me that Brazilian equities -- for the first time in several years -- are fairly priced relative to those alternative markets. Some very smart and agile equity managers are increasing Brazilian exposure purely on that basis."
Global Steel: Steel production marginally down in Jan, Europe strong 38 minutes ago Global crude steel production marginally lower (-0.4%) YoY in January according to latest data from the WSA. China steel production run-rating at an annualised 725Mt in January but expect sequential pick-up in output through 2014. Europe posts strong steel production growth of +6.2% YoY and +7.5% on a MoM basis in January. Industry Overview Report
Real Estate/Property Whirlpool: New debt issuance could lead to larger China stake: Reit Buy
Brazil reverses an early morning sell-off to close in the green. Even China manages to shake off the latest sign of contraction in manufacturing. I sense an overnight short squeeze. Sometimes 'bad news is good,' and IMO all of it has already been priced in. Who's left to sell? Michael Gayed referred to the 'Honey Badger' market in 2013, with US indexes climbing against a backdrop of bad news and pessimism. I now spot the rare Tasmanian Badger, a nocturnal creature which sets bear traps by day and hunts at night. Its favored strategy is to pounce on defenseless prey, usually via overnight gaps up in Asia.
WHATSAPP - This is another example of buy 'em if you can't beat 'em, I'm quite certain GE and their likes have been snapping up the lose ends in similar manner as well.
WHATSSAPP is the shiz overseas except for Korea and Japan. That's why FB wanted it, b/c over there testing is expensive and WHATTSAPP is their workaround for $1/year
texting, that is. That's why the guy from Ukrane developed it in the first place, so he and his friends could text each other, and it just took off from there and grew into a force. Did FB overpay? I guess they may have at least in the short run, but that wasn't my point, these companies have been out shopping and snapping up technology.
Doug Kass recently tweeted that he was shorting GMCR and TSLA. I'd really like to see this guy's returns. He gets a lot of press despite making so many horrible calls.
GMCR has got to be a reversion trade for Kass. It had a big gap up when Coke bought a part of the company and coffee has taken a big jump up from $1.10 in December to $1.60 now. I wrote about this on the blog awhile ago as $1.10 was below the cost of production. I bought a position in JVA because I knew the price couldn't stay below the cost of production for long. So Kass's take has to be the speculative move because of COKE and the cost of coffee going forward. He may be right about the Coke deal price reverting but the big roasters hedge out five or six years and GMCR and SBUX were out buying heavily at around a $1.00 late last year, so they may revert due ot the speculative move but I don't think it will be as bad for the bottom line as many believe. Of course you know everyone looks at YOY and last year was very good due to low coffee prices, so people like Kass may take it down due to comparative numbers.
The earlier report on Steel has rolled off the page and this site is impossible to navigate, so here's some other crap: Newmont Mining: Q4’13 adj. EPS miss; dividend policy revised to save cash Foundry industry: Supply-side supports bull-case on TSMC Our industry review should multiple positives for TSMC while we remain cautious on SMIC, UMC, and Samsung LSI. TSMC continues to take share, its 5-year declining ROIC likely bottomed and our analysis suggests it should rise in 2014/15. X - US Steel: Pipe dreams dashed in OCTG anti-dumping duty ruling - February 18, 2014 AKS - $12 12mo price objective, Neutral Change in Earnings Forecast / Reliance Steel and Aluminum Co Timna Tanners <- I don't like this guy, I think he's most likely an ass. Reliance Steel & Aluminum: Strong cash flows, better outlook support Buy rating Australia Economic Weekly: How high can the unemployment rate go- We forecast that due to sub-trend economic growth the unemployment rate will reach 6.5% by the end of 2014, with upside risk. The RBA minutes confirmed a neutral bias but were surprised by inflation. Wages growth slowed to the weakest pace since 1997. Next week capex data is the focus. We will get insight in to the non-mining recovery but also the potential mining cliff. US Economic Weekly: Taking stock of the recovery February 20, 2014 07:32 pm ET The data continue to come in below expectations. Our GDP tracking model now pegs 2.2% and 1.4% in 4Q and 1Q, respectively. We expect a sharp downward revision in 4Q GDP from 3.2% to 2.2%. Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the Senate on Thursday. Weather is not the only factor holding back 1Q g... 2.14.13 - We are making the following changes to our Technical Titans List: Additions: BRKR, CPLP, JNPR & NEE. Deletions: BA, PRU, TUP & XOM
This was today, several pages of charts and table accompany this report:
China steel production run-rating at 725Mt in January China steel production declined -3.2% YoY and -1.3% MoM according to latest data from the WSA, equating to 725Mt on an annualised basis. In FY2014 we forecast China crude steel production of 815Mt and thus anticipate a sequential pick-up in output as we progress through the year. We note the latest data-point from MySteel which points to iron ore inventories at Chinese steel mills having declined by around 7 days in the past month (this equates to around 25Mt of iron ore inventories). We believe this is indicative of destocking and could point to higher steel production in the past few weeks, post the end of Chinese New Year. Europe leads the way with production growth of +6.2% YoY In January steel production was particularly strong in Europe with production growth of +6.2% YoY and +7.5% on a MoM basis. Steel producers have pointed to seasonal restocking post the December lull and as well as some tentative signs of improvement in underlying demand trends most notably in the automotive segment. US: Fresh hopes for a pick-up in US non-res construction Looking to the US we remain convinced that in the U.S. non-residential construction will recover and boost results later in 2014 and into 2015. Manufacturing demand is poised to improve in the energy patch in particular, and we think pent up demand after a particularly cold and snowy Q1 should boost results for construction exposed names: top-picks- NUE, STLD, and RS. Brazil: Steel demand rebounds in Jan, mostly on pre-buying According to channel checks, domestic flat steel producers were able to smoothly implement the ~6% hikes to the distribution (30% of volumes) in January. In addition a ~10% price hikes to automakers (40% of volumes) was implemented and could increase prices to the industrial sector by 3-5% in the coming months. On the demand side, most expect demand to grow ~2-3% in 2014 for the distribution and industrials, while automakers demand should remain flat or even decline.
Detrick is quite positive on AKS, X. I completely agree and think now is the perfect time to be accumulating both stocks. It's going to be volatile as hell so that's why spending 2 months accumulating a position works well with the caveat that if it breaks above $7.4 for AKS or $27.5 for X then I would enter the rest of a full position. The hope being that they break down below recent lows to increase bearishness and give a lower cost basis. That's kind of how I viewed building a position in BALT last fall which had a very similar setup.
The fundamentals for steel look weak now but I could see US non residential improving, car sales improving, Europe improving, India improving and a steadying of China/Brazil as major upside catalysts.
estimates for AKS are actually pretty solid: EPS of $0.80 next year means it trades at 8X at what is most likely the trough. Typically that's a peak valuation for a cyclical. Last cycle AKS was doing a $5 EPS run rate near the peak.
AKS - Looks like a fake pennant breakout to the downside, b/c it so close to the apex. Worst, could just continue sideways if the upward snap doesn't materialize right away..
Gerdau S. A.: Solid 4Q results; in-line adjusted EBITDA 8 minutes ago Gerdau reported in-line 4Q13 results, with adjusted EBITDA at R$1,262mn (+2% vs. ests, -11% QoQ and +42% YoY). Brazil remains solid (EBITDA mg at 22%), while North Amer. margins slightly improved to 4.5%, vs. 3.7% in Q3, but still weak. We maintain our Neutral rating, but acknowledge that risks are to the upside, on potential US non-res recovery and FX in Bz.
HAYN - Not exactly ripping to the upside today, but testing 200SMA support so could be a good entry if so inclined OC - Think the gap up from $40 closes? Maybe not soon but I bet it might this summer.
This is another reason why I think solars are due for at least a pause if not a pullback. FSLR and TSL have the lowest P/BV ratios. SUNE and CSIQ have the highest.
That's an interesting observation, I've noted a recent bit of pumping for trucking from BACML, they appear to like the bullish sentiment for some reason, I guess they're distributing into it so need to encourage buying.
I think a good day trade play next week would be to short a move above or near the 1850 level for a move back down to the 1820 level. i think we go higher but i think the most bullish setup would be one more perceived failed breakout.
Now I'm sitting back with a pina colada in hand, watching through the window as last of the snow melts away. Another cold blast is supposed to be coming mid next week I think, so making the most of this indian summer while it lasts! :)
You guys are responsible for sucking all our natty up! http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-21/gold-rush-ghost-town-bodes-ill-for-california-power-flow-energy.html?cmpid=yhoo
Perhaps iron ore deliveries caused the recent spike in BDI? If so, then what about the fuel/coal that's needed to process it? http://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/02/China%20Iron%20Ore%20at%20Ports.jpg
This is the essence of what I really appreciate most about India: "Dear Mr FM, why give me discounts on cars when I can't afford food? Feb 18, 2014 A letter from one of our readers to the Finance Minister following the budget." http://www.firstpost.com/
LOL! "WhatsApp will be distributing $1 billion among its 450 million odd users, which results into roughly Rs 135 for each user. This is first time in the history of mergers and acquisitions that any company has taken such a generous initiative.
WhatsApp decision has resulted into jubilation across the whole world. WhatsApp users were spotted celebrating and yelling on streets and on social media. Most of them sent “thumbs up” emoticon to each other on WhatsApp."
Here is a chart that shows this Apple iTunes, Software and Services Revenue per quarter through Q2 2013. It has grown from $1.2 Billion per quarter in 2010 to over $4.4 Billion this past quarter. http://s3.datawrapper.de/ZRwP0/
I also read this: "Mr Dediu reported that Apple's iTunes division has gross revenues of $23.5 billion with 34 per cent growth year over year. He said the iTunes business is almost half of Google's search business and believes Apple's iTunes division will "grow slightly faster."
Just something to consider when thinking about AAPL being a commodity business. I hope they continue to downgrade the stock. I'm definitely warming up on it.
For what it's worth I have a strong dislike of Larry Summers, but I like JO a lot. I think they may be related in that Summers was not appointed and Yellen is viewed as a dove, so commodities (like JO) are in fashion.
Non-cash EPS (what they base dividends off) would be $0.50 higher per year. Total non cash EPS would be $8.60. I like the risk-reward longer term for this investment.
This assumes 25%, 20%, 15%, 10%, 10% growth in average BDI per year. by comparison, the average BDI in 2010 was 2,677 and last year it grew over 30%.
This is why the Panama Canal is being upgraded, and the east coast and world harbors are as well: http://drg.blob.core.windows.net/hellenicshippingnewsbody/images/stories/General_photos2/sizing%20up%20the%20trends.png India has major harbor infrastructure problems as well. So who's going to make the equipment and actually do the work?
This is about increasing size of ships, they're getting larger. Unfortunately excludes overall increase of capacity. http://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/News.aspx?ElementId=01d4ff14-9867-403b-83e6-ac528f4bf0a8
I just wanted to let you guys know that I just daytraded SPY between $185.76 and $185.91 and made enough to buy drinks tonight. So don't bother bringing cash to the bar.
The only stock that is red on my watch list is SORL. At the same time, its chart since late 2012 looks fabulous. So I just placed a buy limit order for 5 September $2.50 calls at $2.30 (the bid/ask was $2.15/$2.45 before me, so it is not clear whether this offer will be filled today).
My bid on the call options did not get filled, but I did manage to buy 500 shares at $4.62. So I am moving my buy limit on the calls down to $2.00. If SORL goes up from here, my shares will do well. If it goes down, then I'll increase my exposure at a better price. Just like what Buffett is advising. :)
Minivans - Don't buy one with a driver's side rear door or if you do, avoid using it. If you plan on transporting children all loading/unloading should be curbside.
PWR - Quanta gapped up on Thursday as it reported Q4 and annual earnings. Earnings per share fell 2%, but topped analysts' consensus expectations. "They beat on revenue and EPS growth," Visse said. "More important, their 12-month backlog is at a record level. Long-term profit is on an uptrend."
looks like they're setting up people with today's action. kind of what i was expecting but didn't trade it. move to old highs or just above, then down to 1815 to 1820, get everyone scared/skeptical, then blastoff
People seem to be getting excited about the market again. Maybe a bit of a shakeout would be good here. SPY (and a bunch of others) are back at the top of the channel they were in all last year. Doesn't mean it goes down right away, but harder to move up quickly now.
David, I'm still holding SORL. It's cheap on most metrics, in a good space and seems legit. If it were a U.S. company, it'd be at least double. I'd like it if they would start paying a dividend, but they are in growth mode and you can see the balance sheet equity growing well, so not a surprise they are not paying. I have a personal sell target of $8.08 (the bottom of the range it traded at in 2010).
Speaking of Buffet, if you haven't seen this, it is a great summary of Buffet's calls on the market and also shows things to look for as markets get over and undervalued:
Corn - Nobody's expecting this, are they? "Rounding bottom, strong momentum indicators and cheapness to Beans all point to higher Corn prices The advance on February 14 confirmed the completion […]" Brandt
Something like "Calm down, nuclear is dead, we'll be rubbing sticks together instead, load up on sticks and forget all about uranium." Would help, or perhaps: "The solar panel on my roof can provide more electricity in one minute than the entire neighborhood consumes in a week."
UGR claims to be set to provide 30% of the uranium demand for the US market. My understanding is it's not all that difficult of a task b/c there's plenty of uranium to go around but the richer deposits are lucrative.
Something about their processing equipment makes theirs most best....
Uranium getting more and more in the news and CCJ had another good day. DNN and a few others identififed as possible takeout candidates and up 10% today.
I still think there is time to get on this, but maybe this will be one of those waiting for a pullback which never comes.
Emerging India Has a Long Way to Go A yellow truck festooned with black tassels and hex symbols to ward off bad luck passed our van on the right as we jounced over the potholes that slowed us to a crawl on the road between Jaipur and Jodhpur. The truck was similar to many of the trucks I saw on a three-week road trip in the northern Indian states of Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh this winter, except for one thing: It was carrying a 20-foot container, the only box I spotted in hundreds of miles of tortuous driving. The blue box bore the familiar APL logo.
Yes, steam coal perhaps, and maybe coaking coal. India is an exporter of iron ore b/c they have more than they need but don't have adequate quantities of coaking coal for making steel, also their ports cannot accept the new giant ships, so it's the small ships until they upgrade (dredge) their ports. From what I've been reading.
Keeping an eye on energy company JONE. Had a big drop today on earnings, but Reminiscences of a Stock Blogger, who is quite knowledgeable on energy, likes it: http://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/2013/12/10/week-127-a-couple-of-new-stocks-and-getting-rid-of-a-few-others-jone-mhr-pxl-ca-dgit-trox/#more-4541
Maybe we get a second wave down over the next few days which should be buyable. The earnings report didn't look bad to me, but I guess expectations must have been even higher.
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.TO) had a good day up over 10% and back into the green for me. It's a long term one, but they appear to have great mines and proven management. Could be a big winner.
I guess if common shareholders can't receive gains, they also can't share in losses? "annual report says plainly that as a result of its status as being conservatorship under the U.S. Treasury, "net income is not available to common shareholders," and "[b]ecause we are in conservatorship, we are no longer managed with a strategy to maximize shareholder returns.""
TCK - Testing the lower negative sloped trend line going back to mid August. GE - Testing top of the negative sloped channel from December. Breakout or fail? CADC - no panic yet, apparently.
Thieves hard at work? Jan 25, 2014 "(Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have both held investigations into whether Bank of America (BAC.N) engaged in improper trading by doing its own futures trades ahead of executing large orders for clients, according to a regulatory filing. The June 2013 disclosure, which Reuters recently reviewed on a website run by the securities industry regulator FINRA, sheds light on the basis for a warning by the Federal Bureau of Investigation on January 8. The warning, in the form of an intelligence bulletin to regulators and security officers at financial services firms, said that the FBI suspected swaps traders at an unnamed U.S. bank and an unnamed Canadian bank may have been involved in market manipulation and front running of orders from U.S. government-owned mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNMA.OB) and Freddie Mac (FMCC.OB). Reuters has since learned that Bank of America's trading practices regarding Fannie and Freddie are the subject of probes, and that the investigations are ongoing. Bank of America spokesman Bill Halldin declined comment when asked abut the investigations. The disclosure on the FINRA site doesn't specifically accuse Bank of America of any wrongdoing."
CVRR - Ammonia is valuable and interesting. CVRR Manufactures NH3 from petroleum coke by gassification, eh? Did you realize ammonia is just one extra molecule away from being hydrogen? So CVI buys the ammonia and makes ammonium nitrate fertilizer with it, NH3 is much easier to transport and handle, especially through pipelines, than H2 is. All you need do to NH3 to liberate the hydrogen is heat it enough to separate the bonds, mix it with some air then you have N2 + H2 +O2, for fuel cells like the ones PLUG is using.
Wonder what Ichan's up to, playing with hydrogen and ammonia transportation?
"Most hydrogen used in the United States is made from natural gas, and a 2009 estimate of the cost making and delivering hydrogen came to $6 to $8 a kilogram. New methods of making hydrogen promise to be cheaper, but all remain experimental. And there is virtually no distribution network. Still, the promise is there."
I'm thinking the answer to finding a mechanism for transporting hydrogen might lie in combining it with nitrogen to make ammonia, then disassociating it back to N2+H2 at or near point of use.
Not sure if this can compete though, from a cost and maintenance perspective.
The problem still remains, what to do with the CO2 effluent!?!?!? Bluesource.com buys the CO2 apparently, Bluesource is a carbon trading firm (seems to be private).
I like today's smack down in silver -- it brings it right back to the straight line connecting intraday lows since January 30. Just bought 5 contracts of October $20 calls at $2.01.
The Company recorded net income for the fourth quarter of 2013 of $0.6 million, or $0.01 basic and diluted earnings per share. Comparatively, for the three months ended December 31, 2012, the Company recorded a net loss of $4.3 million, or $0.19 basic and diluted net loss per share.
EBITDA was $6.3 million for the three months ended December 31, 2013 versus $0.4 million for the three months ended December 31, 2012.
WLT- That didn't take long...
ReplyDeleteHere's my idea: get Harlan to study comp sci
ReplyDeleteI agree, this is a great idea!
DeleteThat way, he won't be caught in a tech-support job telling custmoers how sorry he is he can't fix their problems, and maybe we finally get some s/w that actually works as advertised!
DeleteKinda rare to have a basement in Cali, from my experience.
DeleteFLWS - Looking like the initial panic attack has passed.
ReplyDeleteMM - No surprise, really.
ReplyDeleteBALT has a habit of doing this before it takes off.
ReplyDeleteBefore that dec run it had a move to 5.7 then temporary dip then run to 6.8. If earnings are good then we should see similar setup. I think they break even and double dividend
DeleteAlas, looks like we needed to test 50SMA support.
DeletePlay that funky music, white boy!
ReplyDeleteNVDA - Seems like the verdict is in, they like the new chip.
ReplyDeleteTSM - This one was rejected at the top of channel, I'd love to catch it under $16.5 b/c I think it's going to be a good play in the long run.
ReplyDeleteELNK - This one is sucking big wind on the earnings, I've been experiencing one hell of a lot of "server not found" problems the past couple of weeks, too. Service sucks.
ReplyDeleteTop job for 2014 is software developer:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessinsider.com/best-jobs-of-2014-2014-1?op=1
BSBR - Remind me to load up next time this one's taking another swan dive, okay?
ReplyDeleteBALT - Offed yesterday's shares for $0.01 gain, I just didn't wait long enuff yesterday for the best price.
ReplyDeletebetter than a loss i guess. I'm still holding full position from 4 months ago. been quite a bumpy ride. who needs an amusement park?
DeleteYeah, I took it off so I'd have that cash in case of another shot at it, I got the scalp trade wrong by forgetting the $6.17 obligation wasn't the target, just an obligation. So, no damage done.
DeleteI find I usually get lost in the forest when I pay too much attention to short term gyrations on what I think is a good long term hold. Scalping stuff just makes my conviction level go down. If I sell at a short term peak and it falls 10% how do I know I'll want to get back in lower? If I sell and it goes higher and then bottoms back at where I sold I'll definitely be looking for lower prices and will miss the chance to get back in. I figure it's best to see things through til the bitter end unless something fundamentally changes. I'm still trying to improve how to do this from an emotional standpoint. Toughest part of investing.
DeleteRight, it's not like I got cute and sold my primary position though, just trying my hand at a little scalping.
Delete1-0
ReplyDeleteJune 28, 2013 - About this time the Reali was 2.2/$US , and today it's 2.39/$US, the peak and retest were 2.45/2.44
ReplyDelete"June 28, 2013 The Smartest man on global capital markets
Brazil:
One of the benefits of massive market dislocations is that they tend to enhance transparency in terms of the true or intrinsic value of credits, asset classes, and countries. This is true of Brazil, where we are now seeing social unrest.
Brazil's President Dilma Rousseff's solution is to increase spending and social outlays; this will only be a very near-term solution, if that. The currency will remain under pressure; it may trade as low as 2.5 reais to the dollar. Some well-situated hedge fund managers have actually asked me recently to what extent I felt Brazil would have a real crisis -- for example, a run on a bank. I do not see that happening, however, current events are constructive in that they point the finger at over-regulation, excessive government at every level, and antiquated labor laws. Now that the US Fed is no longer the "bad guy," we can get sufficient introspection there that leads to substantive change. I have been very negative on Brazil versus Andean/Mexico for several years. Now, however, it would appear to me that Brazilian equities -- for the first time in several years -- are fairly priced relative to those alternative markets. Some very smart and agile equity managers are increasing Brazilian exposure purely on that basis."
http://www.minyanville.com/trading-and-investing/stocks/articles/The-Smartest-Man-in-Global-Capital/6/28/2013/id/50581?page=full
AGO - Still awaiting the pullback. BB, have you determined any potential ETA or is this all we get?
ReplyDeleteGlobal Steel: Steel production marginally down in Jan, Europe strong
ReplyDelete38 minutes ago
Global crude steel production marginally lower (-0.4%) YoY in January according to latest data from the WSA. China steel production run-rating at an annualised 725Mt in January but expect sequential pick-up in output through 2014. Europe posts strong steel production growth of +6.2% YoY and +7.5% on a MoM basis in January.
Industry Overview Report
Real Estate/Property
Whirlpool: New debt issuance could lead to larger China stake: Reit Buy
Any info on steel consumption? They mentioned on nm call that it was quite strong in china for feb so far
DeleteNice chart huh?
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=GILD+Interactive#symbol=gild;range=19980907,20140220;compare=;indicator=split+volume;charttype=area;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;
IRE: nearing $20. Remember when we were playing that in the $4 range two years ago?
ReplyDeleteEWZ from 38 to 80 in two years.
DeletePBR 11 to 30.
DeleteBSBR <5 to >20.
DeleteBrazil reverses an early morning sell-off to close in the green. Even China manages to shake off the latest sign of contraction in manufacturing. I sense an overnight short squeeze. Sometimes 'bad news is good,' and IMO all of it has already been priced in. Who's left to sell? Michael Gayed referred to the 'Honey Badger' market in 2013, with US indexes climbing against a backdrop of bad news and pessimism. I now spot the rare Tasmanian Badger, a nocturnal creature which sets bear traps by day and hunts at night. Its favored strategy is to pounce on defenseless prey, usually via overnight gaps up in Asia.
ReplyDeleteNothing reckless about slot machines if you own the house.
ReplyDeleteTrue!
Deletehttp://www.incrediblecharts.com/tradingdiary/trading_diary.php
ReplyDeleteWHATSAPP - This is another example of buy 'em if you can't beat 'em, I'm quite certain GE and their likes have been snapping up the lose ends in similar manner as well.
ReplyDeleteJust ran this by Kendra and she knows about it. Her take? "Who cares, there are a ton of apps that do that."
DeleteTheres some dude I kind of casually follow on Stocktwits that started buying FB puts today. He's been spot on for a while so it's worth taking note.
DeleteThis is what I was getting at with the computer programming/science studying. It's absurd how valuable that degree can be.
WHATSSAPP is the shiz overseas except for Korea and Japan. That's why FB wanted it, b/c over there testing is expensive and WHATTSAPP is their workaround for $1/year
Deletetexting, that is. That's why the guy from Ukrane developed it in the first place, so he and his friends could text each other, and it just took off from there and grew into a force.
DeleteDid FB overpay? I guess they may have at least in the short run, but that wasn't my point, these companies have been out shopping and snapping up technology.
TOF- Yeah, I got it. Crazy what a couple of lines of code will do.
DeleteBasement moving along nicely. I'll post a rough in pic.
Doug Kass recently tweeted that he was shorting GMCR and TSLA. I'd really like to see this guy's returns. He gets a lot of press despite making so many horrible calls.
ReplyDeleteGMCR has got to be a reversion trade for Kass. It had a big gap up when Coke bought a part of the company and coffee has taken a big jump up from $1.10 in December to $1.60 now. I wrote about this on the blog awhile ago as $1.10 was below the cost of production. I bought a position in JVA because I knew the price couldn't stay below the cost of production for long. So Kass's take has to be the speculative move because of COKE and the cost of coffee going forward. He may be right about the Coke deal price reverting but the big roasters hedge out five or six years and GMCR and SBUX were out buying heavily at around a $1.00 late last year, so they may revert due ot the speculative move but I don't think it will be as bad for the bottom line as many believe. Of course you know everyone looks at YOY and last year was very good due to low coffee prices, so people like Kass may take it down due to comparative numbers.
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteJO may be a good bet on a pullback.
DeleteThe earlier report on Steel has rolled off the page and this site is impossible to navigate, so here's some other crap:
ReplyDeleteNewmont Mining: Q4’13 adj. EPS miss; dividend policy revised to save cash
Foundry industry: Supply-side supports bull-case on TSMC
Our industry review should multiple positives for TSMC while we remain cautious on SMIC, UMC, and Samsung LSI. TSMC continues to take share, its 5-year declining ROIC likely bottomed and our analysis suggests it should rise in 2014/15.
X - US Steel: Pipe dreams dashed in OCTG anti-dumping duty ruling - February 18, 2014
AKS - $12 12mo price objective, Neutral
Change in Earnings Forecast / Reliance Steel and Aluminum Co Timna Tanners <- I don't like this guy, I think he's most likely an ass.
Reliance Steel & Aluminum: Strong cash flows, better outlook support Buy rating
Australia Economic Weekly: How high can the unemployment rate go-
We forecast that due to sub-trend economic growth the unemployment rate will reach 6.5% by the end of 2014, with upside risk. The RBA minutes confirmed a neutral bias but were surprised by inflation. Wages growth slowed to the weakest pace since 1997. Next week capex data is the focus. We will get insight in to the non-mining recovery but also the potential mining cliff.
US Economic Weekly: Taking stock of the recovery
February 20, 2014 07:32 pm ET
The data continue to come in below expectations. Our GDP tracking model now pegs 2.2% and 1.4% in 4Q and 1Q, respectively. We expect a sharp downward revision in 4Q GDP from 3.2% to 2.2%. Fed Chair Yellen will testify before the Senate on Thursday. Weather is not the only factor holding back 1Q g...
2.14.13 - We are making the following changes to our Technical Titans List: Additions: BRKR, CPLP, JNPR & NEE. Deletions: BA, PRU, TUP & XOM
Finally found and downloaded it, see next post
This was today, several pages of charts and table accompany this report:
ReplyDeleteChina steel production run-rating at 725Mt in January
China steel production declined -3.2% YoY and -1.3% MoM according to latest data
from the WSA, equating to 725Mt on an annualised basis. In FY2014 we forecast
China crude steel production of 815Mt and thus anticipate a sequential pick-up in
output as we progress through the year. We note the latest data-point from MySteel
which points to iron ore inventories at Chinese steel mills having declined by around
7 days in the past month (this equates to around 25Mt of iron ore inventories). We
believe this is indicative of destocking and could point to higher steel production in
the past few weeks, post the end of Chinese New Year.
Europe leads the way with production growth of +6.2% YoY
In January steel production was particularly strong in Europe with production growth
of +6.2% YoY and +7.5% on a MoM basis. Steel producers have pointed to
seasonal restocking post the December lull and as well as some tentative signs of
improvement in underlying demand trends most notably in the automotive segment.
US: Fresh hopes for a pick-up in US non-res construction
Looking to the US we remain convinced that in the U.S. non-residential construction
will recover and boost results later in 2014 and into 2015. Manufacturing demand is
poised to improve in the energy patch in particular, and we think pent up demand
after a particularly cold and snowy Q1 should boost results for construction exposed
names: top-picks- NUE, STLD, and RS.
Brazil: Steel demand rebounds in Jan, mostly on pre-buying
According to channel checks, domestic flat steel producers were able to smoothly
implement the ~6% hikes to the distribution (30% of volumes) in January. In addition
a ~10% price hikes to automakers (40% of volumes) was implemented and could
increase prices to the industrial sector by 3-5% in the coming months. On the
demand side, most expect demand to grow ~2-3% in 2014 for the distribution and
industrials, while automakers demand should remain flat or even decline.
Detrick is quite positive on AKS, X. I completely agree and think now is the perfect time to be accumulating both stocks. It's going to be volatile as hell so that's why spending 2 months accumulating a position works well with the caveat that if it breaks above $7.4 for AKS or $27.5 for X then I would enter the rest of a full position. The hope being that they break down below recent lows to increase bearishness and give a lower cost basis. That's kind of how I viewed building a position in BALT last fall which had a very similar setup.
DeleteThe fundamentals for steel look weak now but I could see US non residential improving, car sales improving, Europe improving, India improving and a steadying of China/Brazil as major upside catalysts.
estimates for AKS are actually pretty solid: EPS of $0.80 next year means it trades at 8X at what is most likely the trough. Typically that's a peak valuation for a cyclical. Last cycle AKS was doing a $5 EPS run rate near the peak.
DeleteAKS - Looks like a fake pennant breakout to the downside, b/c it so close to the apex. Worst, could just continue sideways if the upward snap doesn't materialize right away..
DeleteMan, that's a nice looking triple camel toe.
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) +11 1175
ReplyDeleteGerdau S. A.: Solid 4Q results; in-line adjusted EBITDA
8 minutes ago
Gerdau reported in-line 4Q13 results, with adjusted EBITDA at R$1,262mn (+2% vs. ests, -11% QoQ and +42% YoY). Brazil remains solid (EBITDA mg at 22%), while North Amer. margins slightly improved to 4.5%, vs. 3.7% in Q3, but still weak. We maintain our Neutral rating, but acknowledge that risks are to the upside, on potential US non-res recovery and FX in Bz.
BAS - Have you seen this chart before?
ReplyDeleteI was just looking at that. BAS/NES..wow.
DeleteFMD - Where did we sell this one, $11, I think.
ReplyDelete12 I think.
DeleteThey did a 1:10 split. I believe I ended up getting out at $1.00 or $0.98 avg somewhere around there. I think I bought in around $1.15 or $1.20.
DeleteThat's right I think, I gave up under $1, can't recall exactly, so that'd be less than $10.. At least I didn't add due to the h&s, LOL!
DeleteXCO- What a fucking disaster. TLM too.
ReplyDeleteDisaster as in opportunity or one that habitually looks for love in all the wrong places?
DeleteSeeing possible signs of positive divergences on weekly chart. A bit too early but looks possible
DeleteHAYN - Not exactly ripping to the upside today, but testing 200SMA support so could be a good entry if so inclined
ReplyDeleteOC - Think the gap up from $40 closes? Maybe not soon but I bet it might this summer.
DUST - Okay, time for a snort?
ReplyDeleteEEM - nice channel out of the hole, IDX too THD is gonna join the party EWS hanging out, dressed and ready for the action.
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Gap down is closed.
ReplyDeleteRLGY - Looks like H&S, right shoulder lower than left.
ReplyDeleteSRS about to reverse to upside?
PEIX - Subsidized sugar rush to eternity.
ReplyDeletewith a low float that one could go to $30 in an instant. that's why i was in but i was a weak hand with no conviction
DeleteSome interesting things I've been looking at lately - price to book values in cyclicals, particularly at peaks and troughs.
ReplyDeleteShippers:
2007 peak industry p/bv: 4.8
Current: 0.90
Solars:
Current: 4.76
Trough: 0.46 (using 2012 lows)
Trucking:
Current: 3.8
Trough: 1.7 (using 2011 lows)
This is another reason why I think solars are due for at least a pause if not a pullback. FSLR and TSL have the lowest P/BV ratios. SUNE and CSIQ have the highest.
That's an interesting observation, I've noted a recent bit of pumping for trucking from BACML, they appear to like the bullish sentiment for some reason, I guess they're distributing into it so need to encourage buying.
DeleteI think a good day trade play next week would be to short a move above or near the 1850 level for a move back down to the 1820 level. i think we go higher but i think the most bullish setup would be one more perceived failed breakout.
ReplyDeleteWonder if it's going to begin with a gap up?
DeleteNow I'm sitting back with a pina colada in hand, watching through the window as last of the snow melts away. Another cold blast is supposed to be coming mid next week I think, so making the most of this indian summer while it lasts! :)
ReplyDeleteHave a great weekend, guys!
You guys are responsible for sucking all our natty up!
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-02-21/gold-rush-ghost-town-bodes-ill-for-california-power-flow-energy.html?cmpid=yhoo
Uber taxi, eh? Don't you guys carry smartphones?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-02-20/uber-leads-taxi-industry-disruption-amid-fight-for-riders-drivers#r=shared
Perhaps iron ore deliveries caused the recent spike in BDI? If so, then what about the fuel/coal that's needed to process it?
ReplyDeletehttp://www.zerohedge.com/sites/default/files/images/user5/imageroot/2014/02/China%20Iron%20Ore%20at%20Ports.jpg
Hmm, this looks interesting:
ReplyDeletehttp://energypolicy.columbia.edu/events-calendar/global-oil-market-forecasting-main-approaches-key-drivers
These guys would never mislead anyone, would they?
ReplyDeleteDiana Shipping Upgraded by Morgan Stanley to “Overweight”
TVIX - Worth a shot if the market starts off happy next week?
ReplyDeleteWNR - A TON of volume Friday
ReplyDelete1828 - Robot flipped short at 1828 on Wednesday
ReplyDeleteRobot was long Feb 6th @1767
DeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteThis is the essence of what I really appreciate most about India:
Delete"Dear Mr FM, why give me discounts on cars when I can't afford food?
Feb 18, 2014
A letter from one of our readers to the Finance Minister following the budget."
http://www.firstpost.com/
Bam!
ReplyDeleteBam again!
DeleteThere we go. Just moving retirement a little further down the road.
DeletePORTapotomous!...what's up dude?
DeleteStill working on my philanthropy career. I'm just a few million short.
DeleteI trust your all enjoying today's national observation! I am :)
ReplyDeleteI'm still busy cleaning up the confetti littered about from Festivus!
DeleteFestivus for the rest of us!
DeleteLOL! "WhatsApp will be distributing $1 billion among its 450 million odd users, which results into roughly Rs 135 for each user. This is first time in the history of mergers and acquisitions that any company has taken such a generous initiative.
ReplyDeleteWhatsApp decision has resulted into jubilation across the whole world. WhatsApp users were spotted celebrating and yelling on streets and on social media. Most of them sent “thumbs up” emoticon to each other on WhatsApp."
180 days change USD/BRL:
ReplyDeleteHighest: 2.437 04 Feb 14
Average: 2.311 since 25 Aug 13
Lowest: 2.162 18 Oct 13
Here is a chart that shows this Apple iTunes, Software and Services Revenue per quarter through Q2 2013. It has grown from $1.2 Billion per quarter in 2010 to over $4.4 Billion this past quarter.
ReplyDeletehttp://s3.datawrapper.de/ZRwP0/
I also read this:
"Mr Dediu reported that Apple's iTunes division has gross revenues of $23.5 billion with 34 per cent growth year over year. He said the iTunes business is almost half of Google's search business and believes Apple's iTunes division will "grow slightly faster."
Just something to consider when thinking about AAPL being a commodity business. I hope they continue to downgrade the stock. I'm definitely warming up on it.
I'd love to find an edge we could trade here. Big pricey stock we could take a huge position in and get out anytime.
DeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) -1 1174
ReplyDeleteFNMA - Wow, some kind of chart.
ReplyDeleteBALT - Oh baby, not bad, eh? :)
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Well, well, well, haven't seen $5 for a while.... :)
Not a gap up, but a pretty strong move. Ukraine maybe?
ReplyDeleteI can't be the only person who hates Larry Summers.
ReplyDeletekinda reminds me of Jabba the hut
DeleteYou're not the only one, someone recently said he's a $USD defender but I don't have that impression. Wasn't it Summers, Obama wanted to appoint?
DeleteNOR - Now $4, aluminum's the shiz!
ReplyDeleteKB - See the big volume on the 200SMA retest? I think there's a message....
ReplyDeleteWarren Buffet in Fortune this week - always worth a read:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2014/02/24/warren-buffett-berkshire-letter/
FLWS - I'm about ready to smell the roses, talk me off the ledge!.
ReplyDeleteTNA - Beating the pants off most everything else.....
ReplyDeleteURG/URZ - Vroooommmmm!
ReplyDeletePlastic deck materials are hot, huh?
ReplyDeleteTSM - Why didn't I load up on this one at $16.50?
ReplyDeleteWow what an awesome article Brent. Thanks for sharing.
ReplyDeleteJO is doing it's thang.
ReplyDeleteFor what it's worth I have a strong dislike of Larry Summers, but I like JO a lot.
I think they may be related in that Summers was not appointed and Yellen is viewed as a dove, so commodities (like JO) are in fashion.
Jo too parabolic for me now
DeleteI tried to buy that one at the low but my stupid broker won't allow it "We don't trade commodities", F**K! :(
DeleteJust some back of the envelope estimates for BALT:
ReplyDeleteYear Avg BDI EPS
2014 1,512 0.48
2015 1,814 0.88
2016 2,087 1.25
2017 2,295 1.52
2018 2,525 2.36
Non-cash EPS (what they base dividends off) would be $0.50 higher per year. Total non cash EPS would be $8.60. I like the risk-reward longer term for this investment.
This assumes 25%, 20%, 15%, 10%, 10% growth in average BDI per year. by comparison, the average BDI in 2010 was 2,677 and last year it grew over 30%.
TREX - Wooden decking doesn't last very long, I can testify to this.
ReplyDeletePEIX - Still rockin' on a sugar high, more addictive than cocaine.
ReplyDeleteRobot flipped long of course, at 1846 from short at 1828
ReplyDeleteThis is why the Panama Canal is being upgraded, and the east coast and world harbors are as well:
ReplyDeletehttp://drg.blob.core.windows.net/hellenicshippingnewsbody/images/stories/General_photos2/sizing%20up%20the%20trends.png
India has major harbor infrastructure problems as well.
So who's going to make the equipment and actually do the work?
Are these overall supply increases for the entire industry or are they increases in the size of the avg ship?
DeleteThis is about increasing size of ships, they're getting larger. Unfortunately excludes overall increase of capacity.
Deletehttp://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/News.aspx?ElementId=01d4ff14-9867-403b-83e6-ac528f4bf0a8
I just wanted to let you guys know that I just daytraded SPY between $185.76 and $185.91 and made enough to buy drinks tonight. So don't bother bringing cash to the bar.
ReplyDeleteSounds good to me! :)
DeleteThe only stock that is red on my watch list is SORL. At the same time, its chart since late 2012 looks fabulous. So I just placed a buy limit order for 5 September $2.50 calls at $2.30 (the bid/ask was $2.15/$2.45 before me, so it is not clear whether this offer will be filled today).
ReplyDeleteLooks like a support back-test in progress.
DeleteMy bid on the call options did not get filled, but I did manage to buy 500 shares at $4.62. So I am moving my buy limit on the calls down to $2.00. If SORL goes up from here, my shares will do well. If it goes down, then I'll increase my exposure at a better price. Just like what Buffett is advising. :)
DeleteSupposedly, Soros unloaded DRYS/BALT and loaded up on SALT/SB, and has tripled his dry bulk exposure overall?
ReplyDeleteMinivans - Don't buy one with a driver's side rear door or if you do, avoid using it. If you plan on transporting children all loading/unloading should be curbside.
ReplyDeletePWR - Quanta gapped up on Thursday as it reported Q4 and annual earnings. Earnings per share fell 2%, but topped analysts' consensus expectations. "They beat on revenue and EPS growth," Visse said. "More important, their 12-month backlog is at a record level. Long-term profit is on an uptrend."
ReplyDeletelooks like they're setting up people with today's action. kind of what i was expecting but didn't trade it. move to old highs or just above, then down to 1815 to 1820, get everyone scared/skeptical, then blastoff
ReplyDeletePeople seem to be getting excited about the market again. Maybe a bit of a shakeout would be good here. SPY (and a bunch of others) are back at the top of the channel they were in all last year. Doesn't mean it goes down right away, but harder to move up quickly now.
DeleteDavid, I'm still holding SORL. It's cheap on most metrics, in a good space and seems legit. If it were a U.S. company, it'd be at least double. I'd like it if they would start paying a dividend, but they are in growth mode and you can see the balance sheet equity growing well, so not a surprise they are not paying. I have a personal sell target of $8.08 (the bottom of the range it traded at in 2010).
ReplyDeleteSpeaking of Buffet, if you haven't seen this, it is a great summary of Buffet's calls on the market and also shows things to look for as markets get over and undervalued:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.tilsonfunds.com/4BuffettMarketCalls.pdf
At least we can say we're not crashing, or can't we?
ReplyDeleteBSBR - Looks like a technical buy today, to me.
Brent - Where are you noticing people getting excited about the market?
ReplyDeleteJust anecdotally watching Fast Money.
DeleteBetter play is a gap and go tomorrow to burn all the shorts that piled in EOD.
ReplyDeleteCorn - Nobody's expecting this, are they?
ReplyDelete"Rounding bottom, strong momentum indicators and cheapness to Beans all point to higher Corn prices The advance on February 14 confirmed the completion […]" Brandt
TDW - Just a bounce?
ReplyDeleteINT - iH&S?
ReplyDeleteSPLK - This thing sounds powerful, have you guys been following it?
ReplyDeleteNIHD - Knockout move, maybe? Testing 50SMA support.
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) +23 1197
ReplyDeleteHXM - forming a bull flag? A have doubts.
URG is flying
ReplyDeleteNo more speed, I'm almost there, gotta keep cool now, gotta take care.....
DeleteDang, shoulda shorted something, LOL
ReplyDeleteSperling is just as bad as JTH.
ReplyDeletesperling?
DeleteWill URG reach $7 before BALT does? :)
ReplyDeleteYou guys have nothing to say, no comments at all?
Deletei don't even know how to respond!
DeleteSomething like "Calm down, nuclear is dead, we'll be rubbing sticks together instead, load up on sticks and forget all about uranium." Would help, or perhaps: "The solar panel on my roof can provide more electricity in one minute than the entire neighborhood consumes in a week."
Deleteha i'm still trying to figure out how a $1 stock will go to $7 before a $6.50 one!
DeleteUGR claims to be set to provide 30% of the uranium demand for the US market. My understanding is it's not all that difficult of a task b/c there's plenty of uranium to go around but the richer deposits are lucrative.
DeleteSomething about their processing equipment makes theirs most best....
Uranium getting more and more in the news and CCJ had another good day. DNN and a few others identififed as possible takeout candidates and up 10% today.
DeleteI still think there is time to get on this, but maybe this will be one of those waiting for a pullback which never comes.
URG I meant. Nuclear's kickin' some black azz lately, and ships carry that stuff (from Africa's diamond fields?).
DeleteTC - "Thompson Creek Metals Co Inc.: Copper pure play by 2019. Reiterate Buy & $7/share PO"
ReplyDeleteEmerging India Has a Long Way to Go
ReplyDeleteA yellow truck festooned with black tassels and hex symbols to ward off bad luck passed our van on the right as we jounced over the potholes that slowed us to a crawl on the road between Jaipur and Jodhpur. The truck was similar to many of the trucks I saw on a three-week road trip in the northern Indian states of Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh this winter, except for one thing: It was carrying a 20-foot container, the only box I spotted in hundreds of miles of tortuous driving. The blue box bore the familiar APL logo.
funny i was just going to post this:
Deletehttp://www.clarksons.net/sin2010/markets/Feature.aspx?news_id=35099
Look at tiny little India picking up steam.
Yes, steam coal perhaps, and maybe coaking coal. India is an exporter of iron ore b/c they have more than they need but don't have adequate quantities of coaking coal for making steel, also their ports cannot accept the new giant ships, so it's the small ships until they upgrade (dredge) their ports.
DeleteFrom what I've been reading.
Keeping an eye on energy company JONE. Had a big drop today on earnings, but Reminiscences of a Stock Blogger, who is quite knowledgeable on energy, likes it: http://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/2013/12/10/week-127-a-couple-of-new-stocks-and-getting-rid-of-a-few-others-jone-mhr-pxl-ca-dgit-trox/#more-4541
ReplyDeleteMaybe we get a second wave down over the next few days which should be buyable. The earnings report didn't look bad to me, but I guess expectations must have been even higher.
Ivanhoe Mines (IVN.TO) had a good day up over 10% and back into the green for me. It's a long term one, but they appear to have great mines and proven management. Could be a big winner.
ReplyDeleteI was just about to look at that one,TRQ went the opposite direction..
DeleteTOF,
ReplyDeleteSo hard to know about sentiment these days seems to be too well documented and followed.
Do you use those sites top time trades or just look at them for general info?
Just general info the majority of these guys are too lazy to put time into researching anything thoroughly
DeleteFNMA - Up 12.85%
ReplyDeleteCame out that Ackman took a large position and says it could be a multi-bagger. So I guess people piling in.
ReplyDeleteI guess if common shareholders can't receive gains, they also can't share in losses?
Delete"annual report says plainly that as a result of its status as being conservatorship under the U.S. Treasury, "net income is not available to common shareholders," and "[b]ecause we are in conservatorship, we are no longer managed with a strategy to maximize shareholder returns.""
NLS - This one didn't get taken to the wood shed this time, that's twice in a row now!
ReplyDeleteTCK - Testing the lower negative sloped trend line going back to mid August.
ReplyDeleteGE - Testing top of the negative sloped channel from December. Breakout or fail?
CADC - no panic yet, apparently.
Thieves hard at work?
ReplyDeleteJan 25, 2014 "(Reuters) - The U.S. Department of Justice and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have both held investigations into whether Bank of America (BAC.N) engaged in improper trading by doing its own futures trades ahead of executing large orders for clients, according to a regulatory filing.
The June 2013 disclosure, which Reuters recently reviewed on a website run by the securities industry regulator FINRA, sheds light on the basis for a warning by the Federal Bureau of Investigation on January 8.
The warning, in the form of an intelligence bulletin to regulators and security officers at financial services firms, said that the FBI suspected swaps traders at an unnamed U.S. bank and an unnamed Canadian bank may have been involved in market manipulation and front running of orders from U.S. government-owned mortgage giants Fannie Mae (FNMA.OB) and Freddie Mac (FMCC.OB).
Reuters has since learned that Bank of America's trading practices regarding Fannie and Freddie are the subject of probes, and that the investigations are ongoing.
Bank of America spokesman Bill Halldin declined comment when asked abut the investigations.
The disclosure on the FINRA site doesn't specifically accuse Bank of America of any wrongdoing."
He thinks it works out and is, other than Herbalife, a very smart guy. Huge upside if he is correct:
Deletehttp://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/02/23/ackman-sees-big-upside-to-fannie-freddie-bet/
I've thought that all along.
DeleteVALE - I guess the earnings were uninspiring... Despite the recent large move in Chinese iron ore inventory?
ReplyDeleteOINK - Looks like it might just break out to upside... As XIN is doing?
ReplyDeleteNLY - Beat estimates, I guess mREIT's have a good day.
ReplyDeleteSPX - Maybe we can we get another 125 points off this recent IH&S?
ReplyDeleteCVRR - Ammonia is valuable and interesting. CVRR Manufactures NH3 from petroleum coke by gassification, eh? Did you realize ammonia is just one extra molecule away from being hydrogen? So CVI buys the ammonia and makes ammonium nitrate fertilizer with it, NH3 is much easier to transport and handle, especially through pipelines, than H2 is. All you need do to NH3 to liberate the hydrogen is heat it enough to separate the bonds, mix it with some air then you have N2 + H2 +O2, for fuel cells like the ones PLUG is using.
ReplyDeleteWonder what Ichan's up to, playing with hydrogen and ammonia transportation?
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) +25 1222
ReplyDeleteARII - Wow, that one really ran.
ReplyDeleteSold 7K more shares ENPH @ 8.14-.15
ReplyDeleteMy kids steal my money and give it to each other as gifts.
ReplyDeleteSmart kids, how can it be stealing if you give it away?
DeleteSee if they'll sell it back to you at 25% face value...
DeleteBetter yet, tell them I'll buy it from them at 25% face value! :)
DeleteBALT - Holy crap, this is nice!
ReplyDeletePLUG - Plug Power shares up 17% on Wal-Mart deal at MarketWatch +14.35%
ReplyDeleteSo WHERE's the H2 coming from???? H2 from ammonia?
Our governor just stated our state should be exporting coal, to keep the industry going.
ReplyDelete"Most hydrogen used in the United States is made from natural gas, and a 2009 estimate of the cost making and delivering hydrogen came to $6 to $8 a kilogram. New methods of making hydrogen promise to be cheaper, but all remain experimental. And there is virtually no distribution network. Still, the promise is there."
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking the answer to finding a mechanism for transporting hydrogen might lie in combining it with nitrogen to make ammonia, then disassociating it back to N2+H2 at or near point of use.
Not sure if this can compete though, from a cost and maintenance perspective.
Ammonia as a motor fuel (old article)
ReplyDeletehttp://www.agmrc.org/renewable_energy/renewable_energy/ammonia-as-a-transportation-fuel/
GE is involved, of course....
Deletehttp://files.gecompany.com/gecom/de/summit/case_studies/Case%20Study_GE%20Energy_Coffeyville%20Resources.pdf
The problem still remains, what to do with the CO2 effluent!?!?!? Bluesource.com buys the CO2 apparently, Bluesource is a carbon trading firm (seems to be private).
DeleteI like today's smack down in silver -- it brings it right back to the straight line connecting intraday lows since January 30. Just bought 5 contracts of October $20 calls at $2.01.
ReplyDeleteBALT - Just 60min remaining till we get flattened.....
ReplyDeleteThe Company recorded net income for the fourth quarter of 2013 of $0.6 million, or $0.01 basic and diluted earnings per share. Comparatively, for the three months ended December 31, 2012, the Company recorded a net loss of $4.3 million, or $0.19 basic and diluted net loss per share.
ReplyDeleteEBITDA was $6.3 million for the three months ended December 31, 2013 versus $0.4 million for the three months ended December 31, 2012.