Interesting comments from a top-down fund guy on BNN:
There is continuing evidence of a very strong underlying demand for equity ownership underneath the surface. Every pullback we’ve had in the last 12 months has been relatively shallow and relatively short-lived. He feels there is under-ownership in equities. Valuations are reasonable, especially against the backdrop of interest rates. Interest rates do not look like they are set to move dramatically anytime soon, so the extra return you can get buying equities, versus yields on the 10 year bond, are very attractive. Ultimately we know that private investors and pension funds under-own equities as a percent of their total values. Over a long period of time, at the bottom of secular bear markets you tend to get down to 15%-20% equity ownership as a percentage of net worth, at the household level. In each of the last long-term 20 year secular bull markets, by the end private investors were close to 30% equity exposed. Today they are sitting somewhere around 18%-19%. He is mostly equity focused, focused on dividends and specifically dividend growth with companies that are paying out little of their earnings but where they are showing a willingness to increase that. The risk is enough of a slow down in emerging markets that they wind up with credit problems or their currencies come off enough. But when you are in a Bull market, you want to own things that are participating. We only get good markets from time to time and he thinks we have entered a longer-term bull market that could go on for some time.
"The PBOC says a path of prudent monetary policy and exchange rate reform is in place moving forward. China’s statement may be in response to the disappointment with the mini-stimulus plan overnight and appears to dampen hopes for a major stimulus announcement."
And ECB promises future inflation but for now the risk is to "downside":
“risks to the economy are to the downside” and “unemployment remains high.” Draghi’s comments are dovish so the euro leaks a hair lower to 1.3740 but overall the trader response is not to weaken the euro unless Draghi delivers something more than dovish lip service."
My thinking is the dollar is just beginning to break out here. The more I look at the weekly chart of /DX the more it looks like the weekly chart of /NG right before it exploded higher. If this happens then Gold should absolutely collapse. Sub 1,000 gold seems likely in that scenario in which case GLL would shoot up 50% or so.
Damn 2nd - we screwed up on TZA. Still thinking through this GLL. If we get a market drop then Gold theoretically could do well initially. Oh well I think I'll take my chances on it.
The market still has not negated the sell signal I am showing on the weekly charts. It's awfully close but I don't think it's terribly risky to go long these two ETFs at this level. The downside risk isn't that great and if we do indeed roll over here then the upside is pretty damn high given what I think could be a 10% or so drop. The action in this market is still very funky in my opinion. I understand a lot of people think it's rotation but there seem to be far fewer stocks participating in the upside and that's typically a bad sign.
It just seems to me that there is a lot of herding going on which seems unhealthy to me. Maybe I'm wrong. I'll use that weekly chart signal as a sign when to get out. It would probably be negated on a move to around 1,900 which isn't that far away.
A lot of those high fliers had no business being at those levels. People mad a lot of money on them last year and seemed to be piling on. Thos stocks go up fast and down fast.
But then you look at IOO (global large caps) at a high, EEM and friend making what appears to be strong initial thrusts off the bottom, the Russel 1000 a/d line, all doing well. Also, maybe look at IWD (Russell 2000 Value), seems to be just plugging away
Guy on Fast Money lunch said rising rates increase the measuring stick and is motivating people out of high valuation into lower valuation as can much easier justify those with higher rates - makes some sense.
I know high-fliers often lead the market down and this may still happen here, but just seems like there are too many reasons and good stocks to buy.
I'm kind of not loving much long stuff right now so I'm just trying to keep risk low. It's boring but it could be a lot worse, being stuck in stuff like the momo stocks. I just think the herd trading lasted for far too long. I have a feeling we have a 1981 style 18 month sideways to down market coming.
A sideways market would make sense - you've got a lot of people with big profits from last year who could sell into strength, but also a lot of people who are underinvested who will buy weakness.
Should be some good stocks to find though and I do think we are seeing some rotation out of things like the US market in general, dividend stocks and momo stocks now and movement into value, still some Europe and some EM markets. Probably energy as well.
I'm up over 50% on this one in 6 months and haven't sold any. I'm starting to feel a bit greedy on this and probably should sell some. But it has manoeuvred the aluminum market for decades and seem to know what they are doing and the stock keeps powering upwards and the stock was in the $30's for much of the last decade. The big risk is if China does something non-economic to protect jobs, etc., but demand should continue to increase with things like the Ford F150 taking more aluminum.
It is energy shipping, not dry bulk, but seems like the shipping market is still far from dead. One of the reasons I like NM is it has multiple sectors of the shipping market, not just drybulk (which TOF correctly points out could get squeezed if coal shipping falls) and their management does a good job of capital allocation into these sectors and they are much more qualified to make these decisions than I am.
KKR buys shipping loans as appetite for sector grows - sources http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/03/shipping-loans-idUSL5N0MV4BB20140403
Energy shipping excluding coal, I presume. China is converting Mongolian coal to syngas, coal producers outside of China are losing market share to natty and China's use of domestics kinda sinks a few ships, right?
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -38 1235
Now, who's going to build those mega ships for harvesting liquid methane from the seabeds before it can warm and bubble to the surface? I guess that would make them heros, saving the environment from release of methane due to rising ocean temps lifting methane trapped in the ocean?
Energy company JONE has made a nice turnaround after their quarter-end selling and the refinancing of some debt. They do have very productive wells and could see up another 50% this year if they execute well.
I have a tiny position in ESTE from a long time ago in one account. Not even worth mentioning. Same with GPRC and DATE. Combined its probably 0.5% of my portfolio.
CVI - This is Icahan's refinery that uses the Fischer-Tropsch process to gasify solid fuels, the particular process they're running recently is converting petro coke but I guess it could use coal as a feed stock as well, as China is doing. CVI is using General Electric's system.
Certainly not clean and a long way from green, but the oil industry is buying CO2 liquid from what I understand, for well development, so I would guess these guys would be marketing that by-product as well as the syngas.and all the other distillates off the line, from shellac to propane and of course hydrogen for those "ultra clean" vehicles?
(a) TZA currently up +3.64% @ 15.36. Should have waited. (Last position closed @ 15.08). (b) HDGE currently bidding 12.67. Closed @ 12.674 for a +0.6% gain. (c) TLT currently up +0.5% @ 107.80. Plan to close RYGBX @ end of day for what will probably be about a +0.6% gain.
Back to a market neutral stance. Note that Emerging Markets are selling off> EWZ (Brazil) in particular, currently -1.8%. Another entry may lie around the corner.
Mongolia - So now we know China's mingin caol in Mongolia and gassifying it, how much do you want to bet they're also mining copper and iron ore? BTU - I recall BTU was in the running to become involved in Mongolia, haven't heard much about it since.
JOY - There's another one for ya that doesn't get one heck of a lot of press, stodgy stocks aren't pump and dump plays on the momo list that's true purpose is to steal your gambling money as opposed to investment quality.
momo players eat shit, always in the wrong stocks with fake fairytale stories.
ha i love the cynicism. you're definitely spot on to a certain extent. there's a lot of spin going on. Some of them do have awesome business models though.
If you are playing the mo-mo stocks, you're either really believe in a company, which is fine, or what you're really doing is playing the game of understanding the psychology of the other traders and trying to stay 1 step ahead. Nothing wrong with that game if you are good at playing it, but most people aren't and end up losing to the 5% or 10% who are really good.
to me the ones that are kind of no brainers longer term at any valuation are the ones that provide essential services and have huge networks (i.e., GOOG, BIDU, AMZN, LNKD)
Good catch, if it truly was smart then the firmware could be updated through the internet connection. Not sure really how smart a smoke detector needs to be, maybe if it could tap you on your shoulder and wake you from a slumber or better yet carry you out the door of a burning house, that would be impressive.
'Bubble might be the most overused term in finance. It seems that if any asset price goes up, somebody will say it is a bubble. I think of a bubble as being an event of extreme price increases accompanied by widespread behavior that would be considered irrational in normal times. As Eric Falkenstein pointed out in the excellent article cited below, fraud becomes rampant, too. Valuing money-losing Internet startups on eyeballs in 2000 was irrational in hindsight. So was giving $700,000 no-doc mortgages to anybody who showed up. The only comparably insane activity that I am aware of today is building whole cities of empty buildings in China.'
"The only comparably insane activity that I am aware of today is building whole cities of empty buildings in China.'"
Just because he doesn't understand doesn't justify a misleading judgment of insanity, there is always method to the madness. The catch is, the people being moved into those empty cities such as Ordos permanently lose their heritage. In return, they get to live the Western lifestyle they've been programmed to admire.
"China will merely move herders and farmers off already dry land in its interior and transfer their water rights to the coal industry, which produces more economic value than agriculture with the water."
For further evidence, have a look at Korea. I had the rare opportunity to do some work at one of Samsung's sites, and was amazed by what I witnessed, all the equipment operators and engineers at the site lived in corporate dormitories, two tall apartment buildings on the grounds that were probably 22 stories each.
Monopoly anyone? This is really interesting. http://www.upworthy.com/take-two-normal-people-add-money-to-just-one-of-them-and-watch-what-happens-next?c=ufb3
I just received a call from someone who claims they work for Microsoft, presumably in India judging by the accent, telling me my windows system is sending them viruses and soon my computer is going to crash. Imagine that, Microsoft calls little ol' me....
So I told the guy he is correct, Windows actually is a virus in itself and it's quite common for it to crash, it's already very unstable as is, out of the box.
I use to get those in Hawaii about twice a month, just could not get rid of them. Finally told them I was blind and did not own a computer and they stop calling for about a year.
You guys are right about the momo trading though, there are two sides to every coin and every trade, it's important to understand up front what the risks are, and the goals I guess, gambling by attempting to out trade someone else, taking advantage of some unfounded scare campaign, and being able to realize when something is priced wrong are all skills one must have.
CP you are really smart and seem to have a wide ranch of technical understanding of how things work. There have been studies done that show intelligent people like that have a very hard time with the stock market due to its lack of uniformity.
Hey man, don't forget to keep us informed occasionally, we might learn something. I spent a lot of time in hospitals/clinics this past summer learning about breast cancer treatment and I learned a lot of valuable info. It didn't work out in this case but the original plan involved spot treatment using a probe instead of external radiation, of course this wasn't near as complex or disciplined even, as chemo.
I think it's why I spend so much time on the internet, can't wait around for info to come to you, have to search it out.
Remember when all the failed dot.com companies were becoming mining companies last decade (at least in Canada they were). Guess they've decided smoking is better than digging now.
Bayhorse Silver Announces The Engagement of Consultants to Explore Potential Business Opportunities in The Medical Marijuana Field
Morningstar has PKX as one of only 7 5-star stocks these days. The main risk with it is 25% of its steel goes to China, so that demand may be at some level of risk.
Why didn't we jump on PKX at $64 (Yes, I always have to ask the obvious), PKX has expanded some into banking into some clean(er?) energy storage as well, I think.
SBS is cheap and has had a nice pullback, is in a good industry. Seems like it would be good to buy here.
I looked at it a few years ago though and didn't buy it because I was worried about the government ownership and that they might make political instead of business decisions. Maybe there is something else too, but this really seems like is less than half of where it should be trading. Reminds me of KEP (Korea Electric Power), another stock which never gets a full market valuation.
BACML: "US Economic Watch: Payrolls: good, but not great 3 minutes ago Jobs increased 192,000 in March - a healthy pace of expansion, but not the weather-induced bounceback we expected. The prior two months were revised up a net 37,000, and the unemployment rate was flat at 6.7%. Overall, the report seemed to disappoint high expectations in the market, but we view it as largely positive."
Alright, Hoof-Hearted? AGCO is up a buck, all is not lost. BALT has weight off it's shoulders and climbing so now uncertainty is lifted some. TUR is still keeping it's gap up, PKX remains green, NUE is green RTH is still above $59.60
"BATS Global Markets Inc., under pressure from the New York Attorney General’s office, corrected statements made by a senior executive during a televised interview this week about how its exchanges work.
BATS President William O’Brien, during a CNBC interview Tuesday, said BATS’s Direct Edge exchanges use high-speed data feeds to price stock trades. Thursday, the exchange operator said two of its exchanges, EDGA and EGX, use a slower feed, known as the Securities Information Processor, to price trades.
The distinction matters because high-speed traders can use powerful computers and superfast links between markets to outpace traders and trading venues that rely on slower market data, such as the SIP."
The HFT's actually installed their own optical cable and paid millions to have access to front run data by positioning desks ahead of the other exchanges and by the exchanges allowing them to site their computers at the exchanges. IEX got around them by placing orders at the exchange furthest away (so speed didn't matter) and by putting the HFT's on an optical line 60 km longer than everyone else. So it isn't really faster computers, it's siting and getting in-line ahead of everyone else. Apparently everyone else found a way......except of course US. But we are small and nimble, that is our edge....if you are the value type.
I actually fill on trend resumption so my fills are purposely higher for a reason. Yes, it's counter intuitive, but everyone has a system.
Some people got royally f*ed on BALT this morning, as their buy stop orders were getting hit. Or maybe it was computers f*ing each other -- who knows?
In the meantime, I got f*ed on my SCON position -- a 6 month of a good chart turned to shit as soon as I entered it. Just sold 1/2 of my position as the upward sloping line connecting the November and February lows has been violated. Might get back into it, though, if SCON turns green today.
IWM is scaring shit out of everyone today, for those who were sure that last week's lows were yet another higher low on the daily chart. The market character is changing (as the Fed support is steadily weakening) -- we are getting to the top of a runaway bull market...
I've been struggling with this all day. I got my ass handed to me by LNKD the past 2 days. Thinking about the nasdaq stocks more, a lot of these stocks have crashed for a while. They opened up today flat then crashed again, only to rip higher to positive. They have now gone back below their lows this morning. The downtrend is intact. Because this is the case I think it may be a bit too early to buy the overall market. We need a big gap down day in these old leaders followed by heavy selling thereafter, followed by a turnaround into the green. I don't think we have those things in place yet.
For me my only saving grace today is I did a revenge trade that went well. I loaded up on VXX at $41.34 and sold it at $41.6. I'm now up about 3% on the year vs 14% at the peak just a week ago, thanks to getting stopped out of TZA and getting thrashed on all longs since then. I think we are definitely setting up for the chance to make big gains in some of these stocks that are crashing. I think we need to be patient.
When you have stocks like Trip Advisor (TRIP) trading at 14 times sales, you have to know some things are out of whack. Traditionally, the "best" software companies trade at a long term average of 8.
And if I look at my personal non-momo type portfolio, I have 15 stocks up right now and 20 down - kind of a nothing day. Kind of shows where the sellis and isn't.
URG is holding up pretty dang well, barely a scratch. URZ is down more, so it's probably the one with more upside potential. I think I like URG more, from a fundamentals point of view, URG actually has sales and is in production. Those silver miners may as well be producing uranium.
Seems pretty straightforward, all we have to do to win this game is figure out where the algos want prices to be.
Probably the best scenario would be a weak close today, followed by a weak open Monday with some panicky selling in the morning to flush a bunch more people out, followed by a turnaround Monday afternoon or Tuesday morning.
Wouldn't feel the best, but you buys stocks to make money, not feel good!
Re LNKD, p/s on Yahoo is 14, so may still be ahead of itself. If p/s was 8, fwd p/s would be 4ish, so that would be safer (if it gets there). The hard part with stocks like LNKD is understanding how long and how big the growth is. By flipping few variables, you can dramatically affect future values.
BB - I'm getting 12.99 for LNKD p/s. I can't really determine the true long term growth potential other than I know its really the only game in town and anyone either looking for a job or trying to fill a job has to use them. There's concern that FB would get in the game but I haven't met one person that would like to open up their FB page to an employer. People like to keep their personal and professional lives separate.
I think they will eventually get into online job training / education and helping companies expand their presence on their network through more interactive information pages (mini websites). They just announced an initiative to get into China and India is a huge growth market for them. I just see them at the tip of the iceberg in terms of longer term growth. So maybe they have a "slow" year here or there but I would expect an average of 20%+ growth for the next 10 years would be reasonable.
I talked with my old boss in the hedge fund industry. He's friends with a few fund managers. He said a couple of them got killed in March because they were heavy into the tech names. My thinking is there are some funds that are getting margin calls and are covering them by selling some non tech names. I think we're going to see another few days of intense selling.
$2 billion market cap for Grubhub? OpenTable (OPEN) is less than that - maybe they deliver some silver and medical marijuana with your burger and fries?
My last crappy stock, ALTI, has also dropped below its recent support level, so I decided to exit that one as well. Another case for a great cup-shaped daily chart pattern (since October) breaking down as soon as I enter.
I'll make one last attempt to trust the charts. SLV seems to be making higher lows on the intraday chart since its March 27 bottom. Looks like the downward momentum is over now. So I just bought 5 more January 2015 $19 calls.
I bought back into TZA at $16.19. The weekly sell signal for the market that I have mentioned for a while is still very much intact after today's trading. In fact it has worsened this week. It is just a MACD crossover on the weekly chart that comes up from below the trend line in an attempt to break through the upside. When it fails to break through it leads to significantly more selling in almost all of the cases I've found over the past 20 years.
Russell 2000 is still extremely overvalued in my opinion. It's trading at 29 times trailing earnings and its highest p/s ratio every, by quite a bit actually. Also, it's one of the weaker if not the weakest market. Usually when you have a downtrending market that has a breakaway day do the downside, it's not just a one day event.
Also, while I am at it, I decided to buy 1500 more shares of SORL at $3.75 and place a sell stop limit order under all my shares at $3.53/$3.50, just below the December lows.
(a) +190,000 jobs added in March. (b) US indexes initially rally, then decline. Nasdaq down -108 points (-2.6%) at the low of the day. (c) EM outperforms, initially rallying +1.6%-> now backing off and flat for the day. I wanted to short EM @ the 1030 window, but didn't have the guts. (d) Bonds rally another +0.5%.
Am I tempted to buy back into EM? Sure. But one thing I've learned is to wait for the fat pitch. Prices always come to you. Be patient
2nd - The tone has definitely changed this year. We used to always rally off bad news. Now we're getting good news and selling. Strikes me as different. Not saying it's a bear but definitely not the same game we have played for 5 years.
I also think the SOX is in a new longer term bull market so I'll be looking at the components of that index or maybe just that entire index. This chart is incredibly bullish on a move back down to retest the breakout...around 550: http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^SOX+Interactive#symbol=^SOX;range=my
BID tested the 200 DMA and got rejected. I still think this is a huge tell for the overall market. Look at how well that sucker tracks the overall markets over the past 15 years.
David, what did you think of SORL's earnings this week? I thought their guidance was not great and I am thinking of selling into the next rise in shares. Their valuation is still good, but still it is a China stock and will never get a U.S. type valuation, so maybe it doesn't get much better than this?
FEYE is going to close the gap up too isn't it? If these momo stocks are getting hit b/c they're growth stocks, then why isn't FAST getting hit as well, since FAST is also a growth stock?
Interesting comments from a top-down fund guy on BNN:
ReplyDeleteThere is continuing evidence of a very strong underlying demand for equity ownership underneath the surface. Every pullback we’ve had in the last 12 months has been relatively shallow and relatively short-lived. He feels there is under-ownership in equities. Valuations are reasonable, especially against the backdrop of interest rates. Interest rates do not look like they are set to move dramatically anytime soon, so the extra return you can get buying equities, versus yields on the 10 year bond, are very attractive. Ultimately we know that private investors and pension funds under-own equities as a percent of their total values. Over a long period of time, at the bottom of secular bear markets you tend to get down to 15%-20% equity ownership as a percentage of net worth, at the household level. In each of the last long-term 20 year secular bull markets, by the end private investors were close to 30% equity exposed. Today they are sitting somewhere around 18%-19%. He is mostly equity focused, focused on dividends and specifically dividend growth with companies that are paying out little of their earnings but where they are showing a willingness to increase that. The risk is enough of a slow down in emerging markets that they wind up with credit problems or their currencies come off enough. But when you are in a Bull market, you want to own things that are participating. We only get good markets from time to time and he thinks we have entered a longer-term bull market that could go on for some time.
Dollar ripping higher this morning.
ReplyDeleteEuro is dropping, notice it also did this January and Feb.
ReplyDeleteWho's got UP??????
UUP?
DeleteYeah I'm holding UUP. I chickened out of the calls but I should have loaded the boat on them.
DeleteI also sold some of my YNDX at $31.2 to $31.3 at the open. I'd prefer to have substantial cash right now.
Contemplating buying TZA if /TF gets to 1197 (10 pts higher)
ReplyDeleteTook off some more YNDX at $31.6
ReplyDelete1880 should get us to 1920 based on the 80/20 rule, wonder if it really happens?
ReplyDeleteTrying LNKD again at $182.3
ReplyDeleteMy stink bids for today:
ReplyDeleteTZA $14.20
FLWS $5.28
glta! :)
You too CP!
DeleteFound it: "ECB Keeps Rates on Hold as Officials Discuss New Measures"
ReplyDeleteBonds, baby, bonds.
ReplyDeleteThat was quick. Sold LNKD at a loss.
ReplyDeleteWhat's it take to get HDGE off its ---?
ReplyDeleteJust recording an additional trade> TZA opened @ 14.90, closed @ 15.08.
ReplyDeleteMake that opened @ 14.84, closed @ 15.08.
DeleteBack in LNKD at $179.55
ReplyDeleteThis thing just can't get going. Out again $179.5
DeleteThis my be pressuring BSBR, I suppose:
ReplyDelete"The PBOC says a path of prudent monetary policy and exchange rate reform is in place moving forward. China’s statement may be in response to the disappointment with the mini-stimulus plan overnight and appears to dampen hopes for a major stimulus announcement."
And ECB promises future inflation but for now the risk is to "downside":
“risks to the economy are to the downside” and “unemployment remains high.” Draghi’s comments are dovish so the euro leaks a hair lower to 1.3740 but overall the trader response is not to weaken the euro unless Draghi delivers something more than dovish lip service."
Can someone please convince me not to buy GLL?
ReplyDeleteMy thinking is the dollar is just beginning to break out here. The more I look at the weekly chart of /DX the more it looks like the weekly chart of /NG right before it exploded higher. If this happens then Gold should absolutely collapse. Sub 1,000 gold seems likely in that scenario in which case GLL would shoot up 50% or so.
DeleteLong GLL at $88.8
ReplyDeleteAdded $88.7
DeleteSorry $88.72. Not sure if this will play out well but the dollar looks incredibly bullish to me and that's usually bad for gold.
DeleteLooks like a successful back test of the 50SMA yesterday.
DeleteDamn 2nd - we screwed up on TZA. Still thinking through this GLL. If we get a market drop then Gold theoretically could do well initially. Oh well I think I'll take my chances on it.
ReplyDeleteI would have to imagine a rip higher in the dollar overcomes any gold hedge trade that people have on to shield themselves from a market drop.
DeleteJesus look at FEYE SPLK WDAY and a variety of other high fliers today. Wow.
ReplyDeleteLong SDS at $27.955, long QID at $57.237...trying it again.
DeleteThe market still has not negated the sell signal I am showing on the weekly charts. It's awfully close but I don't think it's terribly risky to go long these two ETFs at this level. The downside risk isn't that great and if we do indeed roll over here then the upside is pretty damn high given what I think could be a 10% or so drop. The action in this market is still very funky in my opinion. I understand a lot of people think it's rotation but there seem to be far fewer stocks participating in the upside and that's typically a bad sign.
DeleteIt just seems to me that there is a lot of herding going on which seems unhealthy to me. Maybe I'm wrong. I'll use that weekly chart signal as a sign when to get out. It would probably be negated on a move to around 1,900 which isn't that far away.
DeleteFEYE is damn close to the 200SMA, I bet this is the low and it rockets up like a scalded cat from near here.
DeleteA lot of those high fliers had no business being at those levels. People mad a lot of money on them last year and seemed to be piling on. Thos stocks go up fast and down fast.
DeleteBut then you look at IOO (global large caps) at a high, EEM and friend making what appears to be strong initial thrusts off the bottom, the Russel 1000 a/d line, all doing well. Also, maybe look at IWD (Russell 2000 Value), seems to be just plugging away
Guy on Fast Money lunch said rising rates increase the measuring stick and is motivating people out of high valuation into lower valuation as can much easier justify those with higher rates - makes some sense.
I know high-fliers often lead the market down and this may still happen here, but just seems like there are too many reasons and good stocks to buy.
Yeah BB - I'm mainly looking at the technical setup. Probably wrong.
DeleteAlso interesting that DJII only down .07% and Russell 2000 down over 1%.
DeleteBut if you can scalp a couple of point of gain doing what you're doing, that's great too.
I'm kind of not loving much long stuff right now so I'm just trying to keep risk low. It's boring but it could be a lot worse, being stuck in stuff like the momo stocks. I just think the herd trading lasted for far too long. I have a feeling we have a 1981 style 18 month sideways to down market coming.
DeleteA sideways market would make sense - you've got a lot of people with big profits from last year who could sell into strength, but also a lot of people who are underinvested who will buy weakness.
DeleteShould be some good stocks to find though and I do think we are seeing some rotation out of things like the US market in general, dividend stocks and momo stocks now and movement into value, still some Europe and some EM markets. Probably energy as well.
So it's back down to 1886, eh? Golly, what a surprise, stocks are back to being too expensive again, LOL!
ReplyDeleteAA - My SWAG is this one should retest $12 on it's way to $14 top and down from there. So maybe shorts cover SPX about the time AA tests $12..??
I'm up over 50% on this one in 6 months and haven't sold any. I'm starting to feel a bit greedy on this and probably should sell some. But it has manoeuvred the aluminum market for decades and seem to know what they are doing and the stock keeps powering upwards and the stock was in the $30's for much of the last decade. The big risk is if China does something non-economic to protect jobs, etc., but demand should continue to increase with things like the Ford F150 taking more aluminum.
DeleteIt is energy shipping, not dry bulk, but seems like the shipping market is still far from dead. One of the reasons I like NM is it has multiple sectors of the shipping market, not just drybulk (which TOF correctly points out could get squeezed if coal shipping falls) and their management does a good job of capital allocation into these sectors and they are much more qualified to make these decisions than I am.
ReplyDeleteKKR buys shipping loans as appetite for sector grows - sources
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/03/shipping-loans-idUSL5N0MV4BB20140403
Dry bulkers are getting absolutely shellacked today. Still think we see $5.30 for BALT.
DeleteEnergy shipping excluding coal, I presume. China is converting Mongolian coal to syngas, coal producers outside of China are losing market share to natty and China's use of domestics kinda sinks a few ships, right?
DeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) -38 1235
Now, who's going to build those mega ships for harvesting liquid methane from the seabeds before it can warm and bubble to the surface? I guess that would make them heros, saving the environment from release of methane due to rising ocean temps lifting methane trapped in the ocean?
Energy company JONE has made a nice turnaround after their quarter-end selling and the refinancing of some debt. They do have very productive wells and could see up another 50% this year if they execute well.
ReplyDeleteWow killing it.
DeleteI like ESTE in this space. Very low float though.
DeleteDo you own it?
DeleteJONE - Dang, I completely forgot to keep an eye on that one!
DeleteI have a tiny position in ESTE from a long time ago in one account. Not even worth mentioning. Same with GPRC and DATE. Combined its probably 0.5% of my portfolio.
DeleteCVI - This is Icahan's refinery that uses the Fischer-Tropsch process to gasify solid fuels, the particular process they're running recently is converting petro coke but I guess it could use coal as a feed stock as well, as China is doing. CVI is using General Electric's system.
ReplyDeleteCertainly not clean and a long way from green, but the oil industry is buying CO2 liquid from what I understand, for well development, so I would guess these guys would be marketing that by-product as well as the syngas.and all the other distillates off the line, from shellac to propane and of course hydrogen for those "ultra clean" vehicles?
damn man these nasdaq stocks are getting friggin slaughtered.
ReplyDeleteCrash alert?
DeleteSeems that way.
DeleteI cleared out of my GLL at $89. Just thinking if we do get a nastier pullback then Gold could spike.
ReplyDelete(a) TZA currently up +3.64% @ 15.36. Should have waited. (Last position closed @ 15.08).
ReplyDelete(b) HDGE currently bidding 12.67. Closed @ 12.674 for a +0.6% gain.
(c) TLT currently up +0.5% @ 107.80. Plan to close RYGBX @ end of day for what will probably be about a +0.6% gain.
Back to a market neutral stance. Note that Emerging Markets are selling off> EWZ (Brazil) in particular, currently -1.8%. Another entry may lie around the corner.
Don't worry...the market is ripping into the close. Nothing ventured, nothing lost.
DeleteDon't get HDGE-hogged!
DeleteBack in LNKD at $176.9. That down channel has a bottom right here.
ReplyDeleteThis market doesn't want to go down. No sense in having any bearish positions.
DeleteSPLK right at the 200 DMA. I'd have to imagine it bounces here. Also filled that gap. Just seems like these things are ready for a bounce.
ReplyDeleteProbably no coincidence that gap coincides with the 200SMA, is it?
DeleteMaybe the NSA cancelled their contract?
DeleteMongolia - So now we know China's mingin caol in Mongolia and gassifying it, how much do you want to bet they're also mining copper and iron ore?
ReplyDeleteBTU - I recall BTU was in the running to become involved in Mongolia, haven't heard much about it since.
JOY - There's another one for ya that doesn't get one heck of a lot of press, stodgy stocks aren't pump and dump plays on the momo list that's true purpose is to steal your gambling money as opposed to investment quality.
ReplyDeletemomo players eat shit, always in the wrong stocks with fake fairytale stories.
ha i love the cynicism. you're definitely spot on to a certain extent. there's a lot of spin going on. Some of them do have awesome business models though.
DeleteIf you are playing the mo-mo stocks, you're either really believe in a company, which is fine, or what you're really doing is playing the game of understanding the psychology of the other traders and trying to stay 1 step ahead. Nothing wrong with that game if you are good at playing it, but most people aren't and end up losing to the 5% or 10% who are really good.
Deleteto me the ones that are kind of no brainers longer term at any valuation are the ones that provide essential services and have huge networks (i.e., GOOG, BIDU, AMZN, LNKD)
DeleteHa I meant to say at any "reasonable" valuation. nothing is good at any valuation. even bitcoin.
DeleteNest halts sales, issues safety warning for its smoke detector
ReplyDeleteGood catch, if it truly was smart then the firmware could be updated through the internet connection. Not sure really how smart a smoke detector needs to be, maybe if it could tap you on your shoulder and wake you from a slumber or better yet carry you out the door of a burning house, that would be impressive.
DeleteImaginative CP
DeleteMellenkamp ended up marrying the model hired for the video in the opening post. Then he divorced her 18 years later.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dailyspeculations.com/wordpress/?m=201404
ReplyDelete'Bubble might be the most overused term in finance. It seems that if any asset price goes up, somebody will say it is a bubble. I think of a bubble as being an event of extreme price increases accompanied by widespread behavior that would be considered irrational in normal times. As Eric Falkenstein pointed out in the excellent article cited below, fraud becomes rampant, too. Valuing money-losing Internet startups on eyeballs in 2000 was irrational in hindsight. So was giving $700,000 no-doc mortgages to anybody who showed up. The only comparably insane activity that I am aware of today is building whole cities of empty buildings in China.'
"The only comparably insane activity that I am aware of today is building whole cities of empty buildings in China.'"
DeleteJust because he doesn't understand doesn't justify a misleading judgment of insanity, there is always method to the madness. The catch is, the people being moved into those empty cities such as Ordos permanently lose their heritage. In return, they get to live the Western lifestyle they've been programmed to admire.
"China will merely move herders and farmers off already dry land in its interior and transfer their water rights to the coal industry, which produces more economic value than agriculture with the water."
http://insideclimatenews.org/news/20140213/chinas-plan-clean-air-cities-will-doom-climate-scientists-say?page=2
For further evidence, have a look at Korea. I had the rare opportunity to do some work at one of Samsung's sites, and was amazed by what I witnessed, all the equipment operators and engineers at the site lived in corporate dormitories, two tall apartment buildings on the grounds that were probably 22 stories each.
DeleteMonopoly anyone? This is really interesting.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.upworthy.com/take-two-normal-people-add-money-to-just-one-of-them-and-watch-what-happens-next?c=ufb3
Otherwise known as philanthropy?
DeleteI just received a call from someone who claims they work for Microsoft, presumably in India judging by the accent, telling me my windows system is sending them viruses and soon my computer is going to crash. Imagine that, Microsoft calls little ol' me....
ReplyDeleteSo I told the guy he is correct, Windows actually is a virus in itself and it's quite common for it to crash, it's already very unstable as is, out of the box.
I use to get those in Hawaii about twice a month, just could not get rid of them. Finally told them I was blind and did not own a computer and they stop calling for about a year.
DeleteYou guys are right about the momo trading though, there are two sides to every coin and every trade, it's important to understand up front what the risks are, and the goals I guess, gambling by attempting to out trade someone else, taking advantage of some unfounded scare campaign, and being able to realize when something is priced wrong are all skills one must have.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteCP you are really smart and seem to have a wide ranch of technical understanding of how things work. There have been studies done that show intelligent people like that have a very hard time with the stock market due to its lack of uniformity.
DeleteConsider that.
wide range,
Deletechemo brain sucks
Hey man, don't forget to keep us informed occasionally, we might learn something. I spent a lot of time in hospitals/clinics this past summer learning about breast cancer treatment and I learned a lot of valuable info. It didn't work out in this case but the original plan involved spot treatment using a probe instead of external radiation, of course this wasn't near as complex or disciplined even, as chemo.
DeleteI think it's why I spend so much time on the internet, can't wait around for info to come to you, have to search it out.
T3d - I'm convinced that if I was smarter my returns would be worse. I like being dumb.
DeleteFunny man, but your definitely not in that category.
DeleteDAX - Wow, this one has really been rockin', not bad at all. Euro recovery progressing nicely?
ReplyDeletePKX and SBS are two foreign big caps on my list. I think you mentioned PKX before CP. I believe this is a Charlie Munger favorite.
ReplyDeleteNEST- They will sell more because of this.
ReplyDeleteWith any luck they just might be the next MITK.
DeleteRemember when all the failed dot.com companies were becoming mining companies last decade (at least in Canada they were). Guess they've decided smoking is better than digging now.
ReplyDeleteBayhorse Silver Announces The Engagement of Consultants to Explore Potential Business Opportunities in The Medical Marijuana Field
http://www.bayhorsesilver.com/bayhorse-silver-announces-the-engagement-of-consultants-to-explore-potential-business-opportunities-in-the-medical-marijuana-field/
Morningstar has PKX as one of only 7 5-star stocks these days. The main risk with it is 25% of its steel goes to China, so that demand may be at some level of risk.
ReplyDeleteWhy didn't we jump on PKX at $64 (Yes, I always have to ask the obvious), PKX has expanded some into banking into some clean(er?) energy storage as well, I think.
DeleteSBS is cheap and has had a nice pullback, is in a good industry. Seems like it would be good to buy here.
ReplyDeleteI looked at it a few years ago though and didn't buy it because I was worried about the government ownership and that they might make political instead of business decisions. Maybe there is something else too, but this really seems like is less than half of where it should be trading. Reminds me of KEP (Korea Electric Power), another stock which never gets a full market valuation.
Probably should take another look though.
It might look cheaper than CBD, at the moment but CBD's P/S is considerably lower?
DeleteBSBR - Seems to have gaped up, SPY as well.
ReplyDeleteN - This one was pummeled yesterday.
ReplyDeleteTZA - Small cap bear, I guess small caps are tapped out/overpriced?
TZA - Stink bid @ $14.20 again
N - OMG, 16x sales.... Seems pricey
DeleteFLWS - I'm back in with a $0.02 scalp on my original entry @ $5.42, same 1/2 position! :)
ReplyDeleteI have the urge to short the ---- out of everything. I'll have to visit the buffet and cool my heels.
ReplyDeleteHogging HDGE at the open shoulda coulda worked.
DeleteBB- That's really funny about that 'miner'!
ReplyDeleteBALT and GNK ripping
ReplyDeleteLong BALT
dude - absolutely nuts.
DeleteHoly Jesus on the GNK! Must be short covering?
Delete"04-Apr-14 07:50AM Genco Equity Shareholders To Be Virtually Wiped Out at Seeking Alpha +70.26%"
F#$%!!!!!
DeleteI loaded up on LNKD down at $171.8 but unfortunately sold a bunch at $175.
ReplyDeleteDude I wouldn't short anything yet. The momo names are ripping off the bottoms.
ReplyDeleteOK.
DeleteBALT- That's it, I've had it. NEST didn't warn me. I'm returning them.
ReplyDeleteYou have to shake it and look through the window for the message.
DeleteBoth Brazilian grocers rippin' and tearin'
ReplyDeleteSmall position in TZA @ 15.03.
ReplyDeleteSmall position in RYWYX (Rydex -2x Inverse EM) @ the 1030 window.
Canceled RYWYX. I don't need the aggravation.
DeleteOut of TZA @ 15.
Delete2nd - Just think...if LNKD rips +$20 which I think it has plenty of room to do, what would happen to TZA? Duldrums for holders dude.
DeleteThe action is in the Nasdaq man. Holy volatility
DeleteAmazing bro.
DeleteBACML: "US Economic Watch: Payrolls: good, but not great
ReplyDelete3 minutes ago
Jobs increased 192,000 in March - a healthy pace of expansion, but not the weather-induced bounceback we expected. The prior two months were revised up a net 37,000, and the unemployment rate was flat at 6.7%. Overall, the report seemed to disappoint high expectations in the market, but we view it as largely positive."
GME - Holy bananas, I owned this one under $25 once, right after BB crashed and burned. P/S is 0.57 right now
ReplyDeleteI know it's not a popular opinion but IBB looks like its actually building a bit of a base here.
ReplyDeleteIt may bounce, but I bet its going to the 200 dma at say 218.
DeleteBALT and GNK that was fast, always take the spike kid. flat on postion now.
These moves are all insane today. Volatility is through the roof on a day where the VIX is sub 13.
DeleteI'd rather have IBB at the 200, for sure the risk is lower there.
DeleteWow. TZA wins again. She throws us all off her back.
ReplyDeleteNow red, LOL, psychotic....
ReplyDeleteDammit.
ReplyDeleteTough market dude. I suspect people are getting short in the hold here which means more volatility to come.
Delete"short in the hole"...ie pressing their bets.
DeleteNo faith in my sixth sense.
DeleteNow the question is does the market do an about face? Wouldn't shock me at all.
DeleteFLWS - Added at $5.49, now a full position.
ReplyDeleteBALT is go if it closes better than $6.49
Alright, Hoof-Hearted?
ReplyDeleteAGCO is up a buck, all is not lost. BALT has weight off it's shoulders and climbing so now uncertainty is lifted some.
TUR is still keeping it's gap up, PKX remains green, NUE is green
RTH is still above $59.60
Wow. I bailed on the LNKD at $170. Brutal but I want money for a potential crash scenario.
ReplyDeleteLong Bayhorse Silver.......
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Thought I smelled a rat, turns out it's a large marsupial of some sort.
ReplyDeleteHere's the source of rat stench:
ReplyDelete"BATS Global Markets Inc., under pressure from the New York Attorney General’s office, corrected statements made by a senior executive during a televised interview this week about how its exchanges work.
BATS President William O’Brien, during a CNBC interview Tuesday, said BATS’s Direct Edge exchanges use high-speed data feeds to price stock trades. Thursday, the exchange operator said two of its exchanges, EDGA and EGX, use a slower feed, known as the Securities Information Processor, to price trades.
The distinction matters because high-speed traders can use powerful computers and superfast links between markets to outpace traders and trading venues that rely on slower market data, such as the SIP."
The HFT's actually installed their own optical cable and paid millions to have access to front run data by positioning desks ahead of the other exchanges and by the exchanges allowing them to site their computers at the exchanges.
DeleteIEX got around them by placing orders at the exchange furthest away (so speed didn't matter) and by putting the HFT's on an optical line 60 km longer than everyone else. So it isn't really faster computers, it's siting and getting in-line ahead of everyone else. Apparently everyone else found a way......except of course US. But we are small and nimble, that is our edge....if you are the value type.
I actually fill on trend resumption so my fills are purposely higher for a reason. Yes, it's counter intuitive, but everyone has a system.
I think it's about time the authorities got involved, although it could affect liquidity.
DeleteSome people got royally f*ed on BALT this morning, as their buy stop orders were getting hit. Or maybe it was computers f*ing each other -- who knows?
ReplyDeleteIn the meantime, I got f*ed on my SCON position -- a 6 month of a good chart turned to shit as soon as I entered it. Just sold 1/2 of my position as the upward sloping line connecting the November and February lows has been violated. Might get back into it, though, if SCON turns green today.
What was that other one you were into, I think I kinda liked that idea.
DeleteThe shorts in the service are killing today. Like everything else, just wait, different day, different shit.
ReplyDeleteIWM is scaring shit out of everyone today, for those who were sure that last week's lows were yet another higher low on the daily chart. The market character is changing (as the Fed support is steadily weakening) -- we are getting to the top of a runaway bull market...
ReplyDeleteIBB shelf no mo.
ReplyDeletePeople getting panicky pretty quickly on this pullback and even talk of a crash - not something I would expect to hear at a market top.
ReplyDeleteI agree.
DeleteOnly thing that counters this is VIX is at 13.
DeleteAnd looking at the market in more dept, Rusell 1000 Value (IWD) down .46%, but growth (IWF) down 1.4%.
DeleteDIA down .41% and QQQ down 2.3%.
Still seems like the high growth / momo stocks getting whacked. Really not a surprise given the changing economy.
ANGO - Probably a great entry here, doubting the H&S will fruit, there's just no way in hell.
ReplyDeleteNow I'm getting bullish.
ReplyDeleteI've been struggling with this all day. I got my ass handed to me by LNKD the past 2 days. Thinking about the nasdaq stocks more, a lot of these stocks have crashed for a while. They opened up today flat then crashed again, only to rip higher to positive. They have now gone back below their lows this morning. The downtrend is intact. Because this is the case I think it may be a bit too early to buy the overall market. We need a big gap down day in these old leaders followed by heavy selling thereafter, followed by a turnaround into the green. I don't think we have those things in place yet.
DeleteFor me my only saving grace today is I did a revenge trade that went well. I loaded up on VXX at $41.34 and sold it at $41.6. I'm now up about 3% on the year vs 14% at the peak just a week ago, thanks to getting stopped out of TZA and getting thrashed on all longs since then. I think we are definitely setting up for the chance to make big gains in some of these stocks that are crashing. I think we need to be patient.
When you have stocks like Trip Advisor (TRIP) trading at 14 times sales, you have to know some things are out of whack. Traditionally, the "best" software companies trade at a long term average of 8.
ReplyDeleteWould you consider LNKD at software company? I would. Growing 35 to 40% going forward. Sales s/b $2.1 Billion this year. $20 Billion mkt cap.
DeleteYou're probably right. At some point we'll have the buying opp of the year.
DeleteAnd if I look at my personal non-momo type portfolio, I have 15 stocks up right now and 20 down - kind of a nothing day. Kind of shows where the sellis and isn't.
ReplyDeleteFLWS - This one needs to close better than $5.35 support.
ReplyDeleteMy basis is $5.45 as of now, with a full position. Go, go, go!!!!
DeleteInteresting that Coal is the leading group on the upside - people going after beaten down stuff.
ReplyDeleteURG is holding up pretty dang well, barely a scratch. URZ is down more, so it's probably the one with more upside potential. I think I like URG more, from a fundamentals point of view, URG actually has sales and is in production.
DeleteThose silver miners may as well be producing uranium.
Seems pretty straightforward, all we have to do to win this game is figure out where the algos want prices to be.
BALT - Here comes $6.50, and that's where this baby closes. IMO
ReplyDeleteProbably the best scenario would be a weak close today, followed by a weak open Monday with some panicky selling in the morning to flush a bunch more people out, followed by a turnaround Monday afternoon or Tuesday morning.
ReplyDeleteWouldn't feel the best, but you buys stocks to make money, not feel good!
Long margin calls.
DeleteRe LNKD, p/s on Yahoo is 14, so may still be ahead of itself. If p/s was 8, fwd p/s would be 4ish, so that would be safer (if it gets there). The hard part with stocks like LNKD is understanding how long and how big the growth is. By flipping few variables, you can dramatically affect future values.
ReplyDeleteBut honestly, I have a very hard time coming up with valuations for stocks like LNKD, AMZN, FB, etc. so I wouldn't listen to me.
DeleteBB - I'm getting 12.99 for LNKD p/s. I can't really determine the true long term growth potential other than I know its really the only game in town and anyone either looking for a job or trying to fill a job has to use them. There's concern that FB would get in the game but I haven't met one person that would like to open up their FB page to an employer. People like to keep their personal and professional lives separate.
DeleteI think they will eventually get into online job training / education and helping companies expand their presence on their network through more interactive information pages (mini websites). They just announced an initiative to get into China and India is a huge growth market for them. I just see them at the tip of the iceberg in terms of longer term growth. So maybe they have a "slow" year here or there but I would expect an average of 20%+ growth for the next 10 years would be reasonable.
Interestingly I came across this post from the CEO of LNKD, Reid Hoffman. I think he posted it yesterday:
Deletehttps://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20140403215603-1213-the-entrepreneurial-opportunities-in-the-coming-resource-revolution
Talks about some of the longer term themes we have mentioned here.
TZA - Seems like each morning I place my stinky the algos never fail to move this one up.
ReplyDeleteGOOG - Will that gap up from $450 close this year?
ReplyDeleteI talked with my old boss in the hedge fund industry. He's friends with a few fund managers. He said a couple of them got killed in March because they were heavy into the tech names. My thinking is there are some funds that are getting margin calls and are covering them by selling some non tech names. I think we're going to see another few days of intense selling.
ReplyDeleteMakes sense. There was a lot of money being made in them up until a month ago. Hard to time the exits on these.
DeleteFirst time since 2001 the Nasdaq was down 100 points and the DOW wasn't.
ReplyDelete$2 billion market cap for Grubhub? OpenTable (OPEN) is less than that - maybe they deliver some silver and medical marijuana with your burger and fries?
ReplyDelete"a few more days of intense selling"...I hope so.
ReplyDeleteV- That one is surprising.
DeleteI mean it was at $50.XX five years ago.
DeleteMy last crappy stock, ALTI, has also dropped below its recent support level, so I decided to exit that one as well. Another case for a great cup-shaped daily chart pattern (since October) breaking down as soon as I enter.
ReplyDeleteI'll make one last attempt to trust the charts. SLV seems to be making higher lows on the intraday chart since its March 27 bottom. Looks like the downward momentum is over now. So I just bought 5 more January 2015 $19 calls.
ReplyDeleteI bought back into TZA at $16.19. The weekly sell signal for the market that I have mentioned for a while is still very much intact after today's trading. In fact it has worsened this week. It is just a MACD crossover on the weekly chart that comes up from below the trend line in an attempt to break through the upside. When it fails to break through it leads to significantly more selling in almost all of the cases I've found over the past 20 years.
ReplyDeleteRussell 2000 is still extremely overvalued in my opinion. It's trading at 29 times trailing earnings and its highest p/s ratio every, by quite a bit actually. Also, it's one of the weaker if not the weakest market. Usually when you have a downtrending market that has a breakaway day do the downside, it's not just a one day event.
Deletesorry about the typos
DeleteAlso, while I am at it, I decided to buy 1500 more shares of SORL at $3.75 and place a sell stop limit order under all my shares at $3.53/$3.50, just below the December lows.
ReplyDelete(a) +190,000 jobs added in March.
ReplyDelete(b) US indexes initially rally, then decline. Nasdaq down -108 points (-2.6%) at the low of the day.
(c) EM outperforms, initially rallying +1.6%-> now backing off and flat for the day. I wanted to short EM @ the 1030 window, but didn't have the guts.
(d) Bonds rally another +0.5%.
Am I tempted to buy back into EM? Sure. But one thing I've learned is to wait for the fat pitch. Prices always come to you. Be patient
2nd - The tone has definitely changed this year. We used to always rally off bad news. Now we're getting good news and selling. Strikes me as different. Not saying it's a bear but definitely not the same game we have played for 5 years.
DeleteSold the TZA at $16.29 to keep a clear mind for the weekend.
ReplyDeleteFTEK - And, we have ourselves a winner here folks, step right up and shake his hand!!!
ReplyDeleteOkay, have good weekend guys, TGIBF and don't accept any bitcoin nickels!
ReplyDeleteSo if we get a few more days of selling what are you guys going to attempt to play to the long side? I'm thinking EMs are the place to be for sure.
ReplyDeleteI also think the SOX is in a new longer term bull market so I'll be looking at the components of that index or maybe just that entire index. This chart is incredibly bullish on a move back down to retest the breakout...around 550:
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^SOX+Interactive#symbol=^SOX;range=my
Here are the SOX components:
Deletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/q/cp?s=^SOX+Components
CREE is the first one I thought of. Been basing around $55 for a long ass time.
DeleteAMBA isn't in the SOX but it's on my list. They make chips that go into the GoPro camera
DeleteThat bastard ALTI! Did it wait for me to close my position in order to make a spike up at the close???
ReplyDeleteBID tested the 200 DMA and got rejected. I still think this is a huge tell for the overall market. Look at how well that sucker tracks the overall markets over the past 15 years.
ReplyDeleteDavid, what did you think of SORL's earnings this week? I thought their guidance was not great and I am thinking of selling into the next rise in shares. Their valuation is still good, but still it is a China stock and will never get a U.S. type valuation, so maybe it doesn't get much better than this?
ReplyDeleteBID 200 sma per fido is 47.53 close 42.89
ReplyDeleteWhere are you sourcing for your charts? Yahoo?
200SMA is $43.97 on this chart:
Deletehttp://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=bid&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
FB - Back under $60, looks like Feb gap up is set to close.
ReplyDeleteFEYE is going to close the gap up too isn't it? If these momo stocks are getting hit b/c they're growth stocks, then why isn't FAST getting hit as well, since FAST is also a growth stock?
ReplyDeleteDid you see Z today? That thing was UP today.
DeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) -30 1205
ReplyDelete