Dodged another bullet! RYWYX closed the 1030 window with a +0.5% gain. Had I waited for the afternoon close, I'd be taking a loss. As far as I can tell, global markets jumped following release of the minutes of the last Fed meeting, which included a summary of a 'secret video conference call.' EEM promptly reversed from a -0.5% loss to as much as a +1% gain in minutes. Traders have calmed down in the past hour, with EEM now up a more reasonable +0.5%.
I'm reopening HDGE @ 12.71. Utilities (XLU) and the long bond (TLT) have given back none of this week's strength, which remain a concern for the durability of today's rallies in EEM + US indexes.
I really don't know what's behind today's rally, but I like the odds of cooler heads prevailing overnight. Reopening a much smaller position in RYWYX (2x Inverse EM) @ the close + opened a small position in TZA (3x inverse Russell 2000) @ 16.02. Emphasis on small, as it's very easy to get taken out when shorting.
What I’m really betting against is that today’s rallies are being driven by a squeeze of current shorts. So I’m shorting the tail end of today’s short squeeze.
There's almost always some good stocks to buy, even in a weak market. Look how well the EM's have been doing even as the US, especially the Nasdaq, pulled back. I personally find it an easier game to play than trying to short stuff.
As long as we don't get another 2008 / 2009 where everything went down.
I just can't find anything interesting at all. Come on guys! Help me out!! HIMX looks interesting but I have GOOG Glass and never use them. To limited.
Mark, the energy stocks in Canada seem undervalued and are starting to move, so could be the start of some big gains. Don't pay much attention to the U.S. energy stocks because we have so many up here, but perhaps your friend could give you some ideas in this sector.
"A few days ago I wrote about how markets will do what they have to do to frustrate the most. If they are going to tank, they will have the mother-of-all rallies first to make everyone think that the water is fine-come on in!
Let's look at the scoreboard. The Ps put in a decent rally, gaining over 1%. This action has them continuing to bounce nicely off the bottom of their trading range. And, it's enough to have them approaching the top of their trading range. On the surface, this looks pretty good.
The Quack had a very impressive day, gaining nearly 1 ¾%. Unfortunately, this doesn't erase all of last Friday's debacle. So far, it only appears to be retracing its recent leg lower. By the way, on a net net basis, the index is unchanged for 2014.
For the most part, the Rusty (IWM) looks like the Quack.
Looking to the sectors, I find it interesting that the defensive issues: Energies, Utilities, Foods, and Tobacco continue to rally, even when the market is headed higher. Funds are still flowing here. One has to wonder: do they know something? That's what technical analysis is all about-following the money, the reasons often come much later. Write that down.
As you would imagine, areas that have been in serious slides like Drugs & Biotech, Internet, and Software bounced. So far though, it appears to be just that-a bounce.
A plethora of areas still remain below their prior peaks, these include but not limited to: Manufacturing, Consumer Durables, Consumer Non-Durables, Retail, and Leisure.
Other areas that have broken out but dipped back below their breakout levels such as Health Services and Aerospace/Defense bounced but still remain below their prior breakout levels.
Don't get me wrong, it was another good day in the market. Unfortunately, other than the Ps and defensive issues, things still look questionable.
So Big Dave, are you saying this is "the water's fine" rally? Well, it sure feels that way. The good news is that you don't have to get your market timing exactly right. As I have been preaching ad nauseam, let your stops take you out of positions that are no longer viable and let entries trigger you into new possibilities-long or short. Pick the best of the best stocks to begin with. A good offense is often your best defense. In this market, I would focus on those stocks that can trade contra to the indices just in case. On the short side, focus on the aforementioned tech areas that only appear to be pulling back from their recent slide."
I'll make this short and sweet. I went 100% long tza yesterday at 16.41 and my wife went into labor. We had a baby girl! Trying to decide on a name. It has to start with a j so any suggestions would be great. I didn't get the chance to get stopped out of tza which is a gift from god because i would have if I was watching. Instead I just sold it at 16.48 withh a clear conscience now
Bought some GM just now. It's cheap on standard metrics and about half the valuation of Ford. I think it is being beat down too far on this recall news and should bounce. The fact that it is also up on a bad day like today shows maybe there is no-one left to sell. Just an average size position for me, not going large on this, but might add if it got lower and things started to look better.
Mark, I haven't bought an energy stock in a while, but did do some buying last fall at lower prices. Energy is about 10% of my portfolio, so I'm comfortable just holding and watching now. I have a lot of energy stocks because we are over-exposed to energy news up here, so I tend to buy a bunch instead of just one or 2 key ones like usual. The stocks I own are:
CNQ, SU, BXE, JONE TBE.TO, AKT-A.TO, SPE.V, SGL.TO
Of these, I've talked about JONE before and is still good, SU is a largecap, but could be ready to play some catchup, BXE and CNQ have already had some pretty good moves, but seem to attract US attention in strong markets, so could continue to do well.
On the Canadian exchange, SPE is interesting as it is a new company with good assets and strong management and these types of stocks often do well (but also do really poorly sometimes too), but I think it could get to $4.50 pretty easily. AKT-A has had a good move and TBE and SGL I own more for income.
Yep, it seems like there's some rotation going on, almost as if trying not to be obvious. GM's chart reminds me of the ANGO chart, an H&S that most likely won't fruit.
You're right - the GM chart does look heads and shoulderish.
But I think it's mainly the value and fundamental guys in it now and they will buy bad charts if the fundamentals justify it (says the guy with the long GM position).
Nasdaq down over 3% now and momo leaders biotech index down over 6%. People are starting to panic some, which is a good thing if we are going to make a solid bottom. Maybe a flush into the close to get people really worried.
Hey guys thanks for the name ideas. We are leaning toward Juliette/Juliet or Jane.
Wow nasty day in the market. If only my wife had twins then I wouldn't have seen the quotes all day and been sitting on a big gain in tza. Oh well cash works too in this environment
A stock I keep coming back to is aapl. I know it's a huge cap company and bb argues it's in a commodity biz but they have superior products and within 3 years iTunes is going to make up 40%+ of their biz. That's a software company with awesome margins. Commodity type businesses trade at 8x earnings while software companies can trade at 15 to 20x. I think amazon could go to $1,000. Shit they have like $180 a share in cash
You may be right - I'd have to read their financial statements to see the details, but in general, I don't like investing in companies with this high a market cap ($466 billion - highest in the world). Hard to see how that could double or even go up 50%.
Not saying it can't do well, but if I wanted to invest in a large cap tech company, I'd go for a software company like MSFT or ORCL or a consulting firm like ACN. They're all cheap, but customers are much more locked into the Windows software environment and or Oracle ERP than a phone which gets flipped every 2 years.
Even though the broad markets were down today quite a lot, it really didn't seem that bad to me and still seems just like a lot of outrageous prices coming out of the high fliers and the rest of the market is plugging along. Things like 3d printing, social media and biotech have been trading on pure "how much can I make off this trade" with no real business rational behind them. That always happens with trading stocks and its always the people who get sucked in at the end who pay.
I've got a brother-in-law who falls into that category and he has been talking about Tesla, 3-d printing and the marijuana stocks as good places to invest. I think I talked him into staying away, but he is one of those guys that if he knows about a trend, everyone does and it is near the end.
My Canadian listed stocks actually did fine today. 9 up in total, 6 up 5% or more and 7 down.
But my US listed ones were all down except BSBR. Seems that US stocks trade more in line with each other nowadays - I think you have too many ETF's and not enough people buying individual stocks.
SPX (1981-2014) -- Carter Worth had the parallel (cyan) channels on one of his charts on the 5PM (CNBC) program. I added the finer Fib Lines. ... Will be interesting to see how this implodes.
Dodged another bullet! RYWYX closed the 1030 window with a +0.5% gain. Had I waited for the afternoon close, I'd be taking a loss. As far as I can tell, global markets jumped following release of the minutes of the last Fed meeting, which included a summary of a 'secret video conference call.' EEM promptly reversed from a -0.5% loss to as much as a +1% gain in minutes. Traders have calmed down in the past hour, with EEM now up a more reasonable +0.5%.
ReplyDeleteI'm reopening HDGE @ 12.71. Utilities (XLU) and the long bond (TLT) have given back none of this week's strength, which remain a concern for the durability of today's rallies in EEM + US indexes.
You've been moving pretty fast bro.
DeleteI really don't know what's behind today's rally, but I like the odds of cooler heads prevailing overnight. Reopening a much smaller position in RYWYX (2x Inverse EM) @ the close + opened a small position in TZA (3x inverse Russell 2000) @ 16.02. Emphasis on small, as it's very easy to get taken out when shorting.
ReplyDeleteWhat I’m really betting against is that today’s rallies are being driven by a squeeze of current shorts. So I’m shorting the tail end of today’s short squeeze.
DeleteWonder when the US begins shipping natty to Ukraine?
ReplyDeletePicked up 1000 shares of ISR after hours @ 2.8375. Normal 'volatility' should make this good for a couple hundred.
ReplyDeleteAlso a little HIMX @ 11.60...
DeleteStarting to feel like BB. Short bias to overall market(s), but willing to buy targets on the watch list at the right price.
DeleteThere's almost always some good stocks to buy, even in a weak market. Look how well the EM's have been doing even as the US, especially the Nasdaq, pulled back. I personally find it an easier game to play than trying to short stuff.
DeleteAs long as we don't get another 2008 / 2009 where everything went down.
I can only imagine buying the NDQ at yesterday's lows, as I had planned but lacked the guts to do when the opp arrived.
ReplyDeleteGIMO- I tried to read about it. Swear. Can anyone explain to me what they do?
ReplyDeleteRALY- This one sure hasn't lived up to it's name.
ReplyDeleteI just can't find anything interesting at all. Come on guys! Help me out!! HIMX looks interesting but I have GOOG Glass and never use them. To limited.
ReplyDeleteYELP? The Fly Guy thinks YHOO is going to buy YELP.
DeleteRobot is long today from 1859
ReplyDeleteMark, the energy stocks in Canada seem undervalued and are starting to move, so could be the start of some big gains. Don't pay much attention to the U.S. energy stocks because we have so many up here, but perhaps your friend could give you some ideas in this sector.
ReplyDeleteClosed TZA @ 16.10.
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) -32 1029
ReplyDeleteYOUR VIEW, a broader angle.....Random Thoughts.
ReplyDelete"A few days ago I wrote about how markets will do what they have to do to frustrate the most. If they are going to tank, they will have the mother-of-all rallies first to make everyone think that the water is fine-come on in!
Let's look at the scoreboard. The Ps put in a decent rally, gaining over 1%. This action has them continuing to bounce nicely off the bottom of their trading range. And, it's enough to have them approaching the top of their trading range. On the surface, this looks pretty good.
The Quack had a very impressive day, gaining nearly 1 ¾%. Unfortunately, this doesn't erase all of last Friday's debacle. So far, it only appears to be retracing its recent leg lower. By the way, on a net net basis, the index is unchanged for 2014.
For the most part, the Rusty (IWM) looks like the Quack.
Looking to the sectors, I find it interesting that the defensive issues: Energies, Utilities, Foods, and Tobacco continue to rally, even when the market is headed higher. Funds are still flowing here. One has to wonder: do they know something? That's what technical analysis is all about-following the money, the reasons often come much later. Write that down.
As you would imagine, areas that have been in serious slides like Drugs & Biotech, Internet, and Software bounced. So far though, it appears to be just that-a bounce.
A plethora of areas still remain below their prior peaks, these include but not limited to: Manufacturing, Consumer Durables, Consumer Non-Durables, Retail, and Leisure.
Other areas that have broken out but dipped back below their breakout levels such as Health Services and Aerospace/Defense bounced but still remain below their prior breakout levels.
Don't get me wrong, it was another good day in the market. Unfortunately, other than the Ps and defensive issues, things still look questionable.
So Big Dave, are you saying this is "the water's fine" rally? Well, it sure feels that way. The good news is that you don't have to get your market timing exactly right. As I have been preaching ad nauseam, let your stops take you out of positions that are no longer viable and let entries trigger you into new possibilities-long or short. Pick the best of the best stocks to begin with. A good offense is often your best defense. In this market, I would focus on those stocks that can trade contra to the indices just in case. On the short side, focus on the aforementioned tech areas that only appear to be pulling back from their recent slide."
This is not easy! :(
DeleteRAD - Complementary cherry soda for your 12yr high.
ReplyDeleteBB- Toss me some tickers!
ReplyDeleteOINK(er)!
DeleteSold MCP @ 5.07. -4.55%. My only survivors now are ARR/AHP.
ReplyDeleteI bet you 100 bucks this pig closes red.
DeleteAGCO - Leaving me sitting in it's dust. Dust, I tell ya, dust!
ReplyDeleteAdding to HDGE @ 12.75.
ReplyDeleteAdding to HIMX @ 11.05.
ReplyDeleteI'll make this short and sweet. I went 100% long tza yesterday at 16.41 and my wife went into labor. We had a baby girl! Trying to decide on a name. It has to start with a j so any suggestions would be great. I didn't get the chance to get stopped out of tza which is a gift from god because i would have if I was watching. Instead I just sold it at 16.48 withh a clear conscience now
ReplyDeleteCongrats TOF, time sure flys!
DeleteHow about Julia, Joy, Joi, Joice, Janice?
TOF, very happy for you and your wife, congratulations!
DeleteI like Joy to CP.
Congratulations! How about Jade?
Deletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4iiKYgHYb2o
Bill Miller - Plenty of room for upside.
ReplyDeleteOr perhaps Jean, as in Jeanann, Jean-ann, Jean Ann?
ReplyDeleteThey slide faster than they glide.....GILD Finally. Well below the 200, now resistance.
ReplyDeleteI don't know guys, the spy has dipped below the 50, the q's are well below. Of course it always looks like the end from here.....
ReplyDeleteTOF- Yea!...Take care of you lovely bride and new baby!
ReplyDeleteCongrats TOF - what a great day - new baby and a great trade!
ReplyDeleteBought some GM just now. It's cheap on standard metrics and about half the valuation of Ford. I think it is being beat down too far on this recall news and should bounce. The fact that it is also up on a bad day like today shows maybe there is no-one left to sell. Just an average size position for me, not going large on this, but might add if it got lower and things started to look better.
ReplyDeleteKind of a buy when things looks the worst trade.
Mark, I haven't bought an energy stock in a while, but did do some buying last fall at lower prices. Energy is about 10% of my portfolio, so I'm comfortable just holding and watching now. I have a lot of energy stocks because we are over-exposed to energy news up here, so I tend to buy a bunch instead of just one or 2 key ones like usual. The stocks I own are:
ReplyDeleteCNQ, SU, BXE, JONE
TBE.TO, AKT-A.TO, SPE.V, SGL.TO
Of these, I've talked about JONE before and is still good, SU is a largecap, but could be ready to play some catchup, BXE and CNQ have already had some pretty good moves, but seem to attract US attention in strong markets, so could continue to do well.
On the Canadian exchange, SPE is interesting as it is a new company with good assets and strong management and these types of stocks often do well (but also do really poorly sometimes too), but I think it could get to $4.50 pretty easily. AKT-A has had a good move and TBE and SGL I own more for income.
Interesting, but my best 4 US listed stocks today area all foreign. Makes me think these will be good to own when the market turn back upwards:
ReplyDeleteFLY - Irish
SORL - China
BSBR -Brazil
TUR - Turkey
Yep, it seems like there's some rotation going on, almost as if trying not to be obvious.
DeleteGM's chart reminds me of the ANGO chart, an H&S that most likely won't fruit.
You're right - the GM chart does look heads and shoulderish.
DeleteBut I think it's mainly the value and fundamental guys in it now and they will buy bad charts if the fundamentals justify it (says the guy with the long GM position).
Wow - got lucky on the timing of my GM but, within 4 minutes, it started to jump and within 10 minutes was up 1%
ReplyDeleteMaybe you guys will turn me into a trader after all!
You bloody knife catcher!!!! :)
DeleteAlright, back to my purchase price - that's more like it
DeleteThat was quite a downdraft the last little bit.
ReplyDeleteNasdaq down over 3% now and momo leaders biotech index down over 6%. People are starting to panic some, which is a good thing if we are going to make a solid bottom. Maybe a flush into the close to get people really worried.
Hey guys thanks for the name ideas. We are leaning toward Juliette/Juliet or Jane.
ReplyDeleteWow nasty day in the market. If only my wife had twins then I wouldn't have seen the quotes all day and been sitting on a big gain in tza. Oh well cash works too in this environment
A stock I keep coming back to is aapl. I know it's a huge cap company and bb argues it's in a commodity biz but they have superior products and within 3 years iTunes is going to make up 40%+ of their biz. That's a software company with awesome margins. Commodity type businesses trade at 8x earnings while software companies can trade at 15 to 20x. I think amazon could go to $1,000. Shit they have like $180 a share in cash
DeleteYou may be right - I'd have to read their financial statements to see the details, but in general, I don't like investing in companies with this high a market cap ($466 billion - highest in the world). Hard to see how that could double or even go up 50%.
DeleteNot saying it can't do well, but if I wanted to invest in a large cap tech company, I'd go for a software company like MSFT or ORCL or a consulting firm like ACN. They're all cheap, but customers are much more locked into the Windows software environment and or Oracle ERP than a phone which gets flipped every 2 years.
AMZN's Oct. gap is almost closed, we should probably just go for it.
DeleteEven though the broad markets were down today quite a lot, it really didn't seem that bad to me and still seems just like a lot of outrageous prices coming out of the high fliers and the rest of the market is plugging along. Things like 3d printing, social media and biotech have been trading on pure "how much can I make off this trade" with no real business rational behind them. That always happens with trading stocks and its always the people who get sucked in at the end who pay.
ReplyDeleteI've got a brother-in-law who falls into that category and he has been talking about Tesla, 3-d printing and the marijuana stocks as good places to invest. I think I talked him into staying away, but he is one of those guys that if he knows about a trend, everyone does and it is near the end.
I made $678 today!
ReplyDeleteOn what?
DeleteSold MCP @ the open.
DeleteMy Canadian listed stocks actually did fine today. 9 up in total, 6 up 5% or more and 7 down.
DeleteBut my US listed ones were all down except BSBR. Seems that US stocks trade more in line with each other nowadays - I think you have too many ETF's and not enough people buying individual stocks.
SPX (1981-2014) -- Carter Worth had the parallel (cyan) channels on one of his charts on the 5PM (CNBC) program. I added the finer Fib Lines. ... Will be interesting to see how this implodes.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/lPTtNGv0P