(a) The market uneasy:
“There are times to make money. This is a time to not lose money. This is when you’re supposed to think about preserving some of your money. I am nervous. I think it’s nervous time.” – David Tepper, May 15, 2014
(a) The market euphoric:
“Bottom line is, all of those things [that made me nervous] alleviated, one by one.” – David Tepper, June 5, 2014
A remarkable turnabout. Why is it significant? It reminds me of March 9, 2009. Market mood was so negative that day, even I cashed out. As I prepared to 'blog' that evening, it immediately became apparent what I needed to do. The following morning, I placed bets on the upside, using a series of leveraged ETFs. To be honest, I can't recall the positions- probably a combination of FAS (Direxion 3x Financial Bull), TNA (Direxion 3x Small Cap Bull) and QLD (Proshares 2x QQQ). That decision returned my portfolio balance to Summer '08 levels by Fall '09.
Tepper's reversal is not quite as dramatic in terms of timeline, but just as significant. Recall that market bottoms tend to be events, whereas market tops are processes. So a three-week turnabout may 'nail' a top as neatly as a one-day reversal marks a bottom. We'll see.
It was FAS.
ReplyDeleteTepper's been really good the last few years. I'd rather bet with him than against him.
ReplyDeleteMore than just the past few years. I think he has averaged like 30% since inception 15 or 20 years ago
DeleteGood point. Very true.
DeleteHulbert says the best market timers are bullish, even very bullish and the worst market timers are bearish:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/keep-buying-stocks-top-ranked-advisers-say-2014-06-13
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-quick-riches-can-ruin-your-retirement-2014-06-13?link=MW_RM
ReplyDeleteThink about that.
A lot of people got sucked in by the tech bubble. It was at the end of a 17 year bull market, so people were not too worried about risk and it was so easy to make money for a while there.
DeleteI don't know how you stop people from making mistakes like this. Financial education in elementary school?
I've read this article before and it just reeks of defeatism. For certain ages I agree with it but what's the point of admitting defeat before you start? Life shouldn't be like that. Calculated risks are good if you understand financials and the markets
DeleteI agree. I was talking with a friend and he goes with the standard 60/40 equity/bond split. I told him that I am 0% bonds because there is no upside in bonds (unless something horrible happens) and a lot of risk.
DeleteHe thinks I am overly risky, but I think it was Peter Lynch who said a well thought out 100% equity portfolio is safer over a reasonable time period than the bond/equity portfolio and I agree. Especially in the current market where you can find equities that you will almost certainly make money on and that is not true with bonds.
Very nice replies, guys. A lot for me to reflect on.
Delete2nd - Another thing that came to my mind when I first read this article...I actually question the validity of Ken Moraif's initial example. I know it's cynical to think this because there probably were people like his example, but lets look at what his profession is: to manage other people's money. What's the best way to get people to invest with him? To scare the shit out of them and make them think they don't know what they're doing? Just thinking out loud here...
DeleteGood article on tepper
ReplyDeletehttp://www.hedgefundletters.com/category/appaloosa/
Smart guy - bought into a lot of very fearful situations, for big wins. But also smart enough to know which ones to buy and which ones to avoid.
DeleteExcellent read. What hits home is his persistence. I can't count the number of times I've taken gains quickly, only to watch the positions continue on to far greater gains. No faith.
DeleteI like old investment books, because I figure if something was true 100 years and and is now, it probably is a truth:
DeleteFrom Jessie Livermore in the 1920's:
1. “Money is made by sitting, not trading.”
2. “It takes time to make money.”
3. “It was never my thinking that made the big money for me, it always was sitting.”
4. “Nobody can catch all the fluctuations.”
5. “The desire for constant action irrespective of underlying conditions is responsible for many losses in Wall Street even among the professionals, who feel that they must take home some money everyday, as though they were working for regular wages.”
6. “Buy right, sit tight.”
7. “Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.”
8. “Don’t give me timing, give me time.”
and finally, the most important thing:
9. “There is a time for all things, but I didn’t know it. And that is precisely what beats so many men in Wall Street who are very far from being in the main sucker class. There is the plain fool, who does the wrong thing at all times everywhere, but there is the Wall Street fool, who thinks he must trade all the time. Not many can always have adequate reasons for buying and selling stocks daily – or sufficient knowledge to make his play an intelligent play.”
Saturday training session at the casino.
ReplyDelete(a) Down -60% to start.
(b) It was obvious the numbers weren't going my way.
(c) Walked away to play a different game.
(d) Returned 30 minutes later.
(e) Played a streak that took me up +200%.
(f) I figured that was it, and walked away for a beer.
(g) Came back to watch. The streak continued. And continued. And continued.
(h) I played roulette at the next table to take my mind off the dice. +40%.
(i) However, I noticed they kept hitting the point at the craps table, to the extent where one roller bet a 'hopping 5' (with 6 being the point), turned to the guy next to him after rolling the dice, and said '5 or 6, either one works-' and it came up 5!
(j) It could have been, who knows, a +1000% streak.
Good training discipline 2nd!
DeleteGood morning VNM!!! So what's hot today, anything seem particularly interesting?
ReplyDeleteWouldn't qualify as hot, but I keep looking at SNE.
DeleteMark - I think SNE is building out what will turn out to be a very powerful network of products centered around their Playstation gaming platform. They sell TVs powered with Playstation TV, Playstation gaming consoles that allow for internet streaming / viewing of their content generated by Sony Pictures, and they will be launching virtual reality hardware called Morpheus as ancillary products to their gaming platform. All of this will be tied in together and add a lot of power to their gaming network.
DeleteI think this company will be drastically changed within a year or two. I see this sucker really moving up strongly when they get everything working together cohesively and I think now is the perfect time to buy. I'm actually considering loading the boat on it. Waiting for HIMX and BALT to play out first.
I'm also going to just hold on to SPWR I think. I see that being a $100 stock within a few years. They dominate residential and are reliable enough for GOOG and Buffett on the industrial projects so I'm thinking they will be the leader in solar.
I also like GM if you want boring slow steady.
Also just try to keep away from smaller cap companies, although I guess BALT is a small cap but I am just looking to swing trade that. I think small caps should be tougher to play for the next year or two because of valuation.
DeleteGM or SNE, not sure which one I should go for.
DeleteTREX is in the back of my mind too, deck lumber these days is some really horrible value for the junk wood that quickly falls apart and plastics manufacturing costs have fallen I think.
I like the TREX idea but revenues aren't all that impressive.
DeleteI'm not sure about this one, seems headed in the wrong direction:
ReplyDeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) -26 880
ACHN ripping today. Maxim threw mud in the face of the bears with a $22 price target. Wow.
ReplyDeleteRe ACHN, I tend to agree with this guy: http://seekingalpha.com/article/2265543-why-big-pharma-has-no-interest-in-achillions-me-too-hepatitis-c-drug
DeleteOf course, I'm also aware that crowd psychology is capable of driving stock price anywhere.
ZOES is an interesting one as well. I've heard the CMG comparisons on this one. People rave about the company's food. Only issue with that one is the valuation is sky high. I have that on my watch list and will be waiting for a drop at some point over the next year. They only have 111 locations as of 12/31 vs 1777 for PNRA and 1500 for CMG. Lots of room to expand nationally / internationally.
ReplyDeleteSmall position in TZA @ 15.27.
ReplyDeleteCara's Geoff has an interesting take on ST trading movements over the three-day window going into FOMC. I have to admire the amount of work he puts into analyzing technicals/sentiment, almost 24/7.
ReplyDeleteI do like that guy Geoff but I stay away from that site, amazing he's still over there.
DeleteHave you guys heard of PCRX?
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty sure I've looked over that chart before, the ticker rings a bell but cannot recall the detail.
DeleteOur hospital uses one of their products, Exparel, to treat post-surgical pain. It's not used much, for the simple reason it's FDA-approved only for use during removal of bunions and hemorrhoids. However, anesthesiologists have successfully used the product 'off label' for pain management post-joint/spine procedures, as an alternative to epidurals or local anesthetic pumps. Whether a single injection of Exparel really provides 72 hours of anesthesia is subjective, and competitors such as the manufacturer of the On-Q pain pump will use conflicting data to argue otherwise.
DeleteNone of the above really provides a trading recommendation either way.
Interesting. Thanks. Growth in revenues has been astronomical. Which is easier for patients: Exparel or On-Q? Who owns On-Q?
DeleteExparel, hands down. Why? It's a single intra-operative injection that slowly releases local anesthetic over the next 72 hours (the time window that encompasses most post-surgical pain). The On-Q pump (a reservoir that contains 400-500 mL of bupivacaine or ropivacaine) is 'worn' on a belt by the patient, and will provide continuous local anesthesia for the next 3-5 days. It requires (i) installation in the Recovery Room, (ii) patient instructions on use, and (iii) a return visit for removal.
Deletehttp://www.iflo.com/index.php
DeleteThe thing is, I don't intend on wasting another summer watching this market minute by minute so I just need to hold onto something LT that I can add to if prices do fall.
ReplyDeleteNWLI kinda fits the mold, if you know what I mean.
NLY - I dunno which way this one's going LT for sure but including divs I'm nearly flat.
PAL - Don't tell me there's a cup forming, I don't want to hear it. I'm just so glad I wasn't riding it down from $3!
ReplyDeleteDamn that STV is on a freaking tear.
ReplyDeleteTREX:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gurufocus.com/financials.php?symbol=trex&Submit=Go
Doesn't look all that great.
CHeck out the revenue growth of PCRX. 200% last quarter on a quarter over quarter basis.
The revenue numbers for PCRX may be 'telegraphing' increased acceptance of 'off-label' use, often a precursor to 'expanded indications' for a drug.
DeleteHow did you end up looking at PCRX?
DeleteI found it doing a screen for very high top line growth. If earnings projections are in the ballpark for 2015 this could be a $200 stock.
DeleteSome shippers are ripping higher today. SB, SBLK. BALT doing well. They must be anticipating a move higher in rates.
ReplyDeleteSony VR:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.engadget.com/2014/06/11/the-future-of-sony-virtual-reality-e3-morpheus/
TZA off @ 15.12.
ReplyDeleteHIMX off @ 6.68 (basically, a break-even trade).
ReplyDelete2nd - Ease of use / lack of discomfort is typically the main driver for drugs rights, assuming two competitive FDA approved products? If that's the case then PCRX would be a slam dunk winner right? Not sure what patent protection they have or competitive threats are coming.
ReplyDeleteReopening TZA @ 15.18.
ReplyDeleteOff @ 15.11. Not my day, so far.
DeleteInteresting notes out on the solars today by DB:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/news/1801903-solar-stocks-rally-deutsche-upbeat-on-yieldco-potential?uprof=52
Yieldco's will be major drivers of share appreciation over the next year or so. All you have to do is look at the moves in NRG and NYLD to get a sense. SPWR and FSLR have reasonable valuations. Toss in the fact that solar only makes up a fraction of 1% of total electricity usage in the US (with parity inching closer and closer) and it looks like some pretty strong tailwinds for the two big guys, FSLR and SPWR.
At first I was thinking FSLR was better just because it looks like a better valuation, but after thinking about it some more I think SPWR wins out. The solar cell efficiency is much higher and at first I thought the partnership with GE was a major positive for FSLR but after looking at the GE/FSLR deal closer I changed my mind on that. It seems more likely that GE wanted out of the CdTE business and figured rather than sell it they would take a stake in FSLR with the hopes they would get upside in that business if it takes off. So that means its probably not as much of a ringing endorsement as I originally though. Could be wrong but that's how I think it went down. Plus, I like that SPWR has been in the residential business with a leadership position for a while. FSLR hasn't even begun selling into that segment. I don't have a position in FSLR because of all of this. I moved it all over to SPWR.
I 'know' the market is headed down. And I 'know' the market will not make it easy to open a short.
ReplyDeleteCP,
ReplyDeletea large cap energy stock like SU or CNQ might be a good but and not pay too much attention to for the summer:
1. oil market in turmoil
2. demand growing with economy, even if Iraq solved
3. good momentum
4. large cap and dividend
Could be somewhat volatile, but things are lined up pretty well.
NWLI could do well this summer, hard to say as financials seem more at the whim of the broad market, but I certainly wouldn't sell it.
Yeah, I like the oil play. Excellent idea.
DeleteI could also say I 'know' oil prices are headed up.
DeleteBest way to play oil? Alternatives...
DeleteSuch as?
DeleteSolar baby!
Deletehttp://blogs.marketwatch.com/capitolreport/2014/06/16/buffalos-housing-market-is-looking-a-lot-like-san-franciscos/?mod=MW_story_latest_news
ReplyDeletePeople are clamoring for week long lake effect snows come January?
DeleteHouston market seems hot, Arizona has definitely cooled off with prices flat to slightly down from rippin 2013
Delete.
FSLR, sold all, most likely too soon. FSLR is today's laggard, so TOF's switch into SWPR is paying off and I agree these plays are most likely good LT plays here if you are patient.
ReplyDelete2nd, why not just play the tables at 600% gain why bother with the mkt.
Kinda of like HIMX and BALT here, but just looking. Oil stocks have been on fire for awhile.
OSTK is starting to look fairly compelling. 1/3 of market cap is in cash, trades at around 0.3X sales, 10X FCF. I think the company is an acquisition target by the larger stores looking for an online presence. They have built out a fairly robust distribution platform over the past 15 years that should be valuable for someone looking to gain a larger presence online. Seems to me that a company like TJX or ROST would find them compelling. If not the valuation isn't high for them to survive on their own.
ReplyDeleteTZA @ 15.10.
ReplyDeleteGDXJ @ 38.89.
ReplyDeleteReally there are only 3 risks I see to PCRX at this point:
ReplyDelete(1) Patent expiration - not sure when this occurs
(2) Generic competition coming in / related to #1
(3) Cash balances are around $60 Million. They burned about $8 Million last quarter but the burn rate is going down rapidly. They should be ok but they might do a capital raise to increase capacity. Should this happen and the stock gets hit it would provide an excellent entry point in my opinion.
The stock has risen tremendously but the potential expanded indications and just the technology itself tells me that there is a ton of upside here. Maybe the best play is taking a small stake here and adding on any weakness.
Sold 1/2 of SPWR at $38.21. RSI_EMA at 83 has resulted in a subsequent lower price all but one time in the past 2 years. I'm only hoping to add this portion back at a lower price. Will keep the other half in case it continues to run.
ReplyDeleteKFX. This one actually does piss me off.
ReplyDeletejeez what a move in a month
DeleteAdded to SNE at $16.2
ReplyDeleteBids in for HIMX and NBG
ReplyDeletethey hit NBG AT 3.75
DeleteSold BALT at $6.55 to $6.62. Moved that into PCRX at $83.75. Small position for now and will look to add on weakness. After reading through prior articles, listening to presentations and watching some videos online about this company, I have decent conviction that this could be one of those giants in the making.
ReplyDeleteSold the rest of SPWR into the close at $38.5. Setting aside my SPWR money for a potential entry at a lower price / RSI_EMA closed at 84 which is quite high. I'm sure part of the move is related to the move up in oil.
ReplyDeleteWith what I see as another 100%+ upside, probably foolish to book gains now but a 8% move on a 30% position in one day is hard to pass up. The way the market works it should probably continue to run higher now that it broke out to a new trading range, leaving behind people like me that are trying to trade the moves.
PCRX:
ReplyDeletePATENTS:
We seek to protect the proprietary position of our product candidates by, among other methods, filing U.S. and foreign patent applications related to our proprietary technology, inventions and improvements that are important to the development of our business. As of December 31, 2013, there are over 14 families of patents and patent applications relating to various aspects of the DepoFoam delivery technology. Patents have been issued in numerous countries, with an emphasis on the North American, European and Japanese markets. These patents generally have a term of 20 years from the date of the nonprovisional filing unless referring to an earlier filed application. Some of our U.S. patents have a term from 17 years from the grant date. Our issued patents expire at various dates in the future, with the last currently issued patent expiring in 2019.
In regards to patents providing protection for EXPAREL, issued patents in the United States relating to the composition of the product candidate and methods for modifying the rate of drug release of the product candidate expire in September 2018 and January 2017, respectively. A patent relating to compositions including EXPAREL, but not EXPAREL specifically, expired in November 2013. Pending U.S. applications relating to the composition of the product candidate and the process for making the product candidate, if granted, would expire in September 2018 and November 2018, respectively. In Europe, granted patents related to the composition of the product candidate expire in November 2014 and September 2018. Pending applications in Europe relating to methods of modifying the rate of drug release of the product candidate and the process for making the product candidate, if granted, would expire in January 2018 and November 2018, respectively. In April 2010, a provisional patent was filed relating to a new process to manufacture EXPAREL and other DepoFoam-based products. The process offers many advantages to the current process, including larger scale production and lower manufacturing costs. In April 2011, we filed a non-provisional patent application which, if granted, could prevent others from using this process until 2031. Furthermore, a non-exclusively licensed patent of ours relating to EXPAREL was allowed in Europe with an expiration date in October 2021 and was extended in the United States until October 2023.
COMPETITION:
EXPAREL is competing with elastomeric pump/catheter devices intended to provide bupivacaine over several days. I-FLOW Corporation (acquired by Kimberly-Clark Corporation in 2009) has marketed these medical devices in the United States since 2004. In addition, we anticipate that EXPAREL will compete with currently marketed bupivacaine and opioid analgesics such as morphine.
Also forgot to mention I saw they did an equity raise of $110 Million in April so they have $175 Million now. They're all set.
DeleteWow check this out:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-16/idenix-shareholder-sues-to-block-3-9-billion-merck-deal.html?cmpid=yhoo
IDIX went up 220% which sparked the run in ACHN. They're saying the buyout offer was too low.
Re energy, TOF is right that some of the energy alternatives may offer better trades as energy usage shifts due to high oil costs and other reasons. I'm sticking with oil / gas as it is fairly easy to understand and Canada is a good place to invest in energy companies, but could see that trade working well.
ReplyDeleteCoal might be another one given the stocks are way down and coal usage is still growing according to below. Get oil and nat gas up high and even more will get used and these stocks could really jump.
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2014/06/coals-share-of-global-energy-consumption-at-highest-level-since-1970/372835/
I spent an hour reading through the ANR 10-k over the weekend. The RICE investment interests me. They're still hurting big time though. Big time.
DeleteIn these commodity type stocks, sometimes bear markets can last for many years, even decades. Wish I could still find the old Inco chart, but even X was in a bear from 1993 to 2003. I don't understand the coal business well enough to know if it is bottoming, but you don't hear about the real distressed investors like WIlbur Ross going into coal.
DeleteMMYT ?
ReplyDelete2nd - Still researching this PCRX. Man this sucker looks like the real deal. Any other insight you can provide on this one as far as competition goes? Are there any other slow release drug technologies on the market that could compete?
ReplyDeleteRapid release is my preference! :)
DeleteCIE - 5/27 - "John Paulson’s Paulson & Co. started new positions in Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ), CBS Corp. (CBS), and Valeant Pharmaceuticals (VRX) and upped its positions in Cobalt International Energy (CIE) and American Airlines Group (AAL). Notable position decreases were Family Dollar Stores (FDO) and Freeport-McMoRan Copper (FCX)."
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-did-paulson-co-sell-170012008.html
CIE - In at $18.72, hopefully it's a good oil play!
ReplyDeletePCRX - BACML 12mo price objective is $86, 5yr est growth is 211%
ReplyDelete5/1/14 - "Pacira Pharmaceuticals: Exparel use continues to widen; Maintain Buy, $86 PO
"Pacira Pharmaceuticals: Exparel use continues to widen; Maintain Buy, $86 PO
May 01, 2014
PCRX reported 1Q14 Exparel sales of $34.4mn beating our $33mn estimate. Following positive phase 3 data in nerve block, PCRX will file an sNDA this quarter and expects a 10 month review. Management plans to expand its commercial infrastructure to support increasing demand from customers."
ENPH - Wow, baby!
ReplyDeleteSPWR too, holy granola bars!
DeleteBaltic Dry Index (BDI) -22 858
ReplyDeleteRates haven't moved up, the opposite is true.
Wow. I took a shit this morning and missed the re-entry on SPWR. It was that quick!
ReplyDeleteNever take a crap before 11am! :)
Deleteeastern standard time, that is.
Deletenow you tell me!
DeleteYeah, I thought it was obvious? I just returned from a batroom break myself. :)
DeleteAKAM - This one has kicked butt, huh?
ReplyDeleteMy 3 best stocks this morning are insurers MET, AGO and ORI. NWLI is up only slightly, but hasn't really traded.
ReplyDeleteIf we get inflation picking up as it seems this morning, rates should go up and insurers and other financials should do well.
TBT or TLT short is also probably a good bet and I'm thinking it might even be a good time to consider options for leverage. I could see rates moving up pretty quickly regardless of the fed if people think inflation is real.
Sure looks like you're on the right track to me. I've wanted an oil play for over 5yrs so finally trying my hand. I certainly don't think long end rates can stay this low for much longer and the curve is already steep.
DeleteCIE - Okay, so I have a stink bid @ $18.40 just in case THEY smack it down then I double up and sell the first portion on a pop.
ReplyDeleteHow's that sound for a strategy?
Whats the exit strategy?
DeleteHopefully not the same as the FED's exit strategy? I aim to buy low sell higher.
DeleteAdded a little PCRX at $85.15
ReplyDeleteI sold 1/2 of my HIMX today between $6.46 and $6.48. This seems to be too much of a battleground stock right now. Probably shoots up after I get out of it completely but the run last year was on the back of Google Glass and there are rumors that Google is changing up their supplier on Glass and reworking it to make it look more like normal glasses. With no strong top line growth its just too risky to hold a big position in. My cost was $6.44 so I make a little spare change.
ReplyDeleteI did actually sell 10% of it yesterday at $6.60 so that was a good move so far. It's always hard to sell a stock after it made such a huge move down because a lot of this potential bad news is already baked in which is why I bought it. But I do think there is still some significant headline risk if they lose Google. Taiwanese and Chinese companies almost always trade at big discounts to the market so there's theoretically no reason why a company with 5% top line growth wouldn't trade at less than 10X earnings.
DeleteJust like FLWS did to me, couldn't hold onto gains till I sold now it seems to hold onto gains.
DeleteSold another 1/4 at $6.53
DeleteSold the rest at $6.53.
DeleteJust saw this: "17-Jun-14 09:15AM UPDATE: UBS Cuts Himax Price Target By More Than Half Benzinga"
DeleteJust found this too, for CIE: "3-Mar-14 RBC Capital Mkts Downgrade Outperform Sector Perform
DeleteNWLI - Possibly the recent run up was in anticipation of rising rates? Still, rates are historically low, lowest I can recall.
ReplyDeletePeople don't want to pay more for stocks but that's what they're having to do if they want in, isn't it?
ReplyDeleteEWZ - If Brazil is such a pile of poo then why can't I buy this one under $40?
ReplyDeleteNWLI - Looks like a bull flag to me. Yeah, it's run up so that concerns me but hey, short of economic catastrophe it remains a bargain at these prices, right?
ReplyDeleteCIE - Okay, now I'm glad I bought the pullback instead of sitting here another day watching it go higher and higher like a bozo with my thumb up my azz.
ReplyDeletePart of me is a bit concerned about the runups in a lot of stocks the past few days. Look at the charts of:
ReplyDeleteTSLA
SCTY
YELP
ACHN
Z
REDF
MMYT
actually pretty much all of the momentum names have been running up really hard. Makes me a bit cautious here for the short term at least. of course, to go with my beaten down crappy Japenese stock (SNE), i'm holding a chunk of a highly speculative drug stock (PCRX) and have partaken in a good chunk of the debauchery over the past month so i'm partly to blame. Just seems like it might be good to pare down some risk.
I'm feeling a bit concerned as well. I was looking through my spreadsheets and my market benchmark (50% S&P 500 and 50% TSX) has not had a down month since May of last year. Combine that with rising oil prices, mid-east tension, inflation, Ukraine, etc. and it seems like one of these should matter to the market soon.
DeleteMy best guess scenario is we climb through the summer, ignoring bad news, getting the late market guys sucked in and then have a fast, viscous pullback in the fall, but would not be surprised if it happened sooner than this.
Yeah I'd have to imagine we are getting enough momentum to crack the Russell 2000 to around new highs. Should see some more upside but it would be nice if we just traded sideways for another 3-4 months. that would be healthy. The moves in my list above is not sustainable.
DeleteCP,
ReplyDeleteNWLI was the only stock I know which was upgraded during 2009 as their business did not get hurt at all and showed how strong it really was. Even in an economic catastrophe, they will be fine.
When a market event happens, like rates rising today due to the inflation concerns, traders jump on the big liquid names like MET for fast exposure. Smaller guys like NWLI don't attract trader attention, but the same rising tide of higher rates helps NWLI just as much, but it just takes more time to feed through to the stock price.
If so that's fine by me, I like having time to think before the tsunami sweeps me out to sea!
DeleteAnother reason for the bounce in AGO:
ReplyDeleteAssured (AGO +2.7%) today filed a shelf registration and Bloomberg reports the company prepping a 10-year $300M debt issuance.BTIG's Mark Palmer reminds Assured CEO Dominic Frederico has said the most accretive action management can take is to buy back stock trading at a very steep discount to book value, and the current $26.11 share price is just a bit more than half of adjusted end-of-Q1 book of $49.79. Adding leverage to repurchase shares on sale makes good sense, says Palmer.
AGO - Hmm, my quick check assigns a BV of $28.61, so guess I should fire my data source! This probably explains (in part at least) why I never can grasp onto how to comprehend valuations.
DeleteNWLI - This guy would never buy back stock, would he?
RE NWLI, they have stated in their annual report they will not buy back stock and let the market value the company whereever, although it makes a ton of sense at this P/B.
DeleteRe AGO, there are several ways to calculate book value and the $28.61 is the GAAP one I recall. The $48 one has some assumptions which probably will come true, but may not.
SPX (30-min) -- Good example of the trend / counter-trend wave-count dilemma (it's an inverse-problem) in Eckert's chart 137c (2nd one down) ...
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/public/1001240/tenpp/2
SO, do we go to 4 or 5 next?
DeleteSPX - Probably Rotate Higher. If you go to Caldaro's Weekend Review, he's still looking for a Minute wave v up.
Deletehttp://caldaro.wordpress.com/ Scroll down to the weekend-update, MEDIUM-TERM (daily) chart. 1975'ish???
Although FED remarks tomorrow might give the minute-iv down???
The only reliable correlation I've found with that wave stuff is it gives me headaches every time i read it.
DeleteI guess the FED will reiterate their charter of keeping rates uber low until banks can finish dumping their bad assets onto someone else. Those someone else's seem to have cash.
DeleteTOF -- Understand your headaches wrt wave view. I mainly trade TNA and the wave structure has diverged from ES/SPX lately. Too much to process. The R2k/TF/TNA is showing Potential HnS pattern. Will see how that plays out.
Deletehttp://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp/2 (Scroll down to 026R2K (Daily) & 027R2K (Weekly) to see Gulam's count
Corresponding TNA range is 74-82 say.
About the only H&S I've seen that sticks in my mind was for precious metals.
DeleteTNA - (R2K/TF) will see how this HnS potential plays out. EIS (Elder's Impulse System) helps a great deal wrt bring out the wave structure. I've become a fan of his system. Here's my current view (FWIW) ...
Deletehttp://www.screencast.com/t/FfmDXjzRF
I think the H&S fails, just like the GM H&S failed.
DeleteGM -- what do you mean failed??? Interesting you mentioned this as one of the Fib traders I follow posted this ...
DeleteDavid Busick @TheFibDoctor · 6h
$GM 1 year, daily chart. 1/2 way back hit & rejected at 36.78. http://stks.co/g0jCC
My Fib-Draw shows the target was met to the penny ... 31.44
GM --- http://www.screencast.com/t/eVhCthhv3oX
DeleteI was referring to this chart, maybe it's done wrong?:
Deletehttp://peterlbrandt.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/4.13_GM_D.jpg
I was perusing through this website about Exparel, the drug from PCRX. It's pretty incredible how favorable doctors are about this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.realself.com/question/exparel-pain-pump-feel-there-difference
I sold all of my SNE today between $16.1 and $16.2. Commence the head fake tomorrow. Raising cash.
ReplyDeleteI dunno man but that chart looks like quite a few others that traded in a congestion zone before breaking up and out.
DeleteI agree. I am just trying to raise some cash. It has traded between $16 and $16.5 for a while now. I'm ok with waiting for it to make its true move
DeleteAGO - Oh heck, the P/E is less than $5..... Forward is 10 though, so that means someone is not expecting future performance to be quite as good as recent performance.
ReplyDeleteEPS next Q is $0.62, so x4 is $9.92, so where does the forward of PE of 10 come from?
DeleteHow the hell did I get $9.92 outta that, sheesh! $2.48 x 10 is $24.80
DeleteShorted IWM into the close at $117.02 to hedge my long in PCRX.
ReplyDeleteProbably going to cover after hours since the likely course of action is still probably higher.
DeleteNWLI - A lot of volume! Here we go again, another move just like the end of Jan?
ReplyDeleteNice call on PCRX, tof.
ReplyDeleteI closed both TZA and GDXJ early morning for minor losses. I'm just not trading well this week.
Thanks man. I'm curious to get more of your take on Exparel vs alternatives. Everywhere I read doctors are raving about this drug. It seems like it could be used in a wide variety of operations. Just don't know how viable the alternatives are. Based on some loose numbers it looks like they have a blockbuster drug on their hands with no real competing drugs coming on the seen any time soon. Seems like a no brainer, other than the stock being expensive. I also like that no one talks about it.
DeleteIt's basically a pain-killer. Personally, I would prefer Exparel for several reasons: (a) opiates require 're-dosing' on a regular basis, and are associated with a truckload of unpleasant side effects (nausea/vomiting, cognitive impairment, constipation), (b) no high-risk invasive incisional or epidural catheters, (c) the injection is made during surgery, while I'm asleep, and (d) it's 'one and done-' assuming I need no more than 72-hours of pain control.
DeleteOf course, some people dislike the sensation of numbness. For instance, when I had my wisdom teeth out, it was a 'relief' when the local anesthetics wore off and I could deal with 'just the pain' using Tylenol or Tylenol + Codeine.
DeleteNEWL- Yep.
ReplyDeleteQuite the roller coaster ride!
DeletePreliminary additions/deletions to the Russell 2000:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.russell.com/indexes/americas/tools-resources/reconstitution/additions-deletions.page?utm_campaign=PTT+Research&utm_source=hs_email&utm_medium=email&utm_content=13194475&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-8j6l_omOFMpiS4zqf-k4x_PAIKc1vQV3LNwJ-U-bcLrnnlEx4lYI36A9zGRcbDxIZqcFvu-bpuhCXolngG2QDbS2_FCA&_hsmi=13194475#indexes
ACHN going into microcap
DeleteUNG - Oh my, what happens to coal demand when/if natty breaks out to the upside?
ReplyDeleteper cashin:
ReplyDeleteAn Encore Presentation
On this day in 1815, one of history's most fateful and certainly most studied
battles occurred. Napoleon Bonaparte, who had escaped from exile on Elba
only a touch more than 100 days before, now stood at the head of a huge
army seemingly about to overrun an equally huge force of allies from five
nations.
If he succeeded all of Europe would fall under his control. And, if there had
been a Vegas, surely the Vegas line would have been take the little corporal
and give the points.
In fact, Nappy's boys had routed the large Prussian force and then nearly
panicked Wellington's forces just 36 hours before. But just as his cavalry was
about to turn Wellington's retreat into a massacre, a sudden thunderstorm
deluged the roads and the plains. Wellington's men limped to
entrenchments and Nappy's boys, under Marshall Ney regrouped.
On the 18th, as the sun rose, brutally fierce testing of battle lines began. The
carnage was so great that one British officer noted in his diary that he had
never heard of a battle in which everyone (on both sides) died but this might
be a first.
In mid-afternoon Nappy's boys began a new offensive and seemed to have
the upper hand. Suddenly the skies darkened again causing the French to
pause. At the same time the Scots Greys rode brazenly around their own
lines and halted the offensive.
Shortly before 7 p.m. the French tried one more time but suddenly the skies
cleared, exposing the charging French to skirmish shooters in Wellington's
forces.
The Battle of Waterloo was lost and Napoleon resigned in four days, heading
for St. Helena and pension plan - version II.
To celebrate buy a cognac or twelve for Donald Trump. And advise him to
check in with Al Roker before trying any aggressive refinancing.
The bulls and bears confronted each other Tuesday but the contest was more
like a sedate chess match then a military battle.
CIE - Out @ $18.75, might reload if it takes a dip.
ReplyDeleteCan anyone explain to me the significance of the AEG news? Do a stock dividend then buy back the same amount of stock to increase the price? Sounds like a no brainer if it works :)
ReplyDeletePIR quietly zoomed up $1
ReplyDeleteSPWR downgraded on valuation concerns by JPM. I'll look to re-enter at a daily RSI_EMA (from ThinkorSwim) of 30. It happened in August, December, and April over the past year.
ReplyDeleteCBI starting to look compelling. No idea why it has crashed.
ReplyDeleteCB&I Comments on Misleading and Inaccurate Report
DeletePR NEWSWIRE 11:57 PM ET 6/17/2014
THE WOODLANDS, Texas , June 17, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- CB&I (NYSE:CBI) noted there was unusual trading volume today in its common stock. The activity appears to be related to the issuance of a report by a short seller recommending that stockholders sell CB&I stock.
CB&I has reviewed the report and strongly disagrees with its assumptions and conclusions.
Notably, the report warns readers to assume that the short-selling firm and/or its affiliates hold short positions in CB&I common stock and that they stand to realize significant gains in the event that CB&I's stock price declines. CB&I believes that this conflict of interest should cause the report and its conclusions to be viewed skeptically.
"CB&I's management team operates our company with the absolute highest integrity, and we take great issue with erroneous claims such as these," said Philip K. Asherman, CB&I's President and Chief Executive Officer.
CB&I's second quarter financial results are scheduled to be released in late July 2014. The company is confirming today that it expects to report results within the ranges of its current guidance for the year.
Another one to consider and one I've had on my watchlist for a while: TLYS. Earnings have been subdued due to expansion but they have a pretty loyal following here on the west coast. And trends tend to move east in the US. All of the women in my family shop there and they tend to be in with the trendy successful stores like JWN ROST TJX.
ReplyDeleteLong TLYS at $8.11. Here's a comparative analysis I did on TLYS:
ReplyDeleteI compared valuations across 6 retailers: GPS, EXPR, URBN, AEO, ZUMZ and here are the averages:
p/s: 0.97
p/b: 3.21
p/e: 17.9
p/fcf: 18.1 (used average of past 3 years)
Here are TLYS ratios:
p/s: 0.45 (54% discount)
p/b: 1.61 (50% discount)
p/e: 16.6 (7% discount)
p/fcf: 16.3 (10% discount)
Two things: FCF and earnings have been impacted by store expansion so the above ratios are probably too low. They only operate 195 stores vs 3,565 for GPS, 632 for EXPR, 518 for URBN, 1,066 for AEO, and 558 for ZUMZ. I believe they're a buyout candidate for someone looking to tap into the teen space.
I spoke to my sister in law about TLYS and she said she loves the store because they have trendy products that are cheaper than other places you can find and their products are high quality. If that perception is true amongst other shoppers (and I suspect it is) then it has to be attractive at these prices to a larger company. The stock is in free-fall but I doubt that lasts. My perception is that it's a solid brand and I suspect the stock will rebound.
Added more at $8.13
DeleteRe AEG, what they and many European companies do is offer an option for dividends:
ReplyDelete1. Take the cash and pay the witholding tax (usually 25%) if you are out of country
2. Take a special dividend and pay no witholding tax
They then buy back the shares which were issued for the people who take the dividend in order not to dilute the share base.
So, it is really more about avoiding taxes than increasing the share price. In Canada, these share dividends are non-taxable until you sell and then they just count as capital gains, so you avoid foreign income tax.
Yeah I understand the tax implications just makes no sense that it would boost a stock but it's all about perception. Hence the reason a stock rallies after stock splits.
DeleteAdded more TLYS at $8.09 to 8.16.
ReplyDeleteHard to buy anything significant in this one. Only have about 5% in it. Probably just going to stay put at this allocation.
DeleteNow this is a guy worth following:
ReplyDeletehttp://stocktwits.com/JesusHChrist
off topic, ebooks for free, kindof
ReplyDeletehttp://landers.bookbub.com/covers/?source=tabtbi4
CLF, put in a bid in case they sell off, been looking at this for a while, still tough sector.
ReplyDeletebooted out NBG
any reason for selling NBG?
Deleteother than it hitting the 50 sma, not really chart still looks opportunistic.
DeleteIt is more that I have dr's appt's tomorrow and next chemo day after, so just want to be flat. I almost always sell too soon, I want to work on that after this experience is all over. I think I will create a mid to long term basket and a trading one. I would much prefer a good correction before implementing but these things can go on.
Clearly the market is extended, but difficult to make an argument that its topping.
TLYS- My kids wouldn't be caught dead in that store...like the set up though for a trade.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteI bought back most of my SNE today at $16.23 avg. Hopefully it doesn't pull another gap down tomorrow. I think the tide is turning.
ReplyDeleteSorry $16.25 avg. Bought at $16.23 and added at $16.29.
DeleteOne really nice indicator that Fidelity has is Volume Distribution, imo, it shows the battle line of buyers and sellers. Right now its range 16.07-16.28 and looks like it wants to break out.
DeleteYeah I'm jumping the gun here but I think there's substantial value here. One risk I have in the back of my mind is if Apple comes out with a substantial TV product. That could hurt SNE and keeps me from taking anything more than an average position in it.
DeleteBOBE - Cramer suggested this one a few days ago.
ReplyDeleteOUTR coming back into a potential swing trade yet again. seems that stock offers 1 month trading opportunities about 4 times a year.
ReplyDeleteGood catch, $57 target maybe?
DeleteBeen looking at this closer. Seems that a move back above a 30 RSI_EMA is the trigger because twice (out of 6) in past two years it was sold off as much as it is now and went way lower. The other option is a move below 10 RSI_EMA. That happened twice and ended up being really good entries.
DeleteThis reminds me a lot of the GCI type company...dying core brand that should have a long shelf life and that throws off boatloads of cash.
TA - I'm glad to see this one hasn't run, that would make me puke.
ReplyDeleteMTW - How will MTW react when Congress appropriates for Iraqi infrastructure projects in preference over US infrastructure?
AUMN- Dang, I saw the news this am when it was up only a few %.
ReplyDeleteI guess whatever the FED said was viewed positively.
ReplyDeleteThe more I research this PCRX that more impressed I am with it. I've been scouring the doctor boards online and literally every single doctor talks positively about it. The competitors are DRRX and ACRX but DRRX got rejected by the FDA in Feb and ACRX has something in phase III that pretty much pales in comparison:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.acelrx.com/pipeline/arx-01.html
Watch the video in the 2nd image down from the top on the right. Doesn't appear to be a real competitive threat. Expected to hear from FDA by July 24, 2014 I believe.
"TLYS- My kids wouldn't be caught dead in that store...like the set up though for a trade."
ReplyDeleteReally? That's interesting because I get the exact opposite response from people I talk to. Maybe it's a north / south California thing?
NWLI - Ouch, another $4+ ! They're gonna take it all back except for a coupla dollars? :(
ReplyDelete(a) I might take a shot at SNE.
ReplyDelete(b) My better half opened positions in Twitter and Goldcorp on Tuesday, which netted nice gains today.
(c) I opted to treat FOMC as a non-event, which is exactly how I would characterize my portfolio performance today.
F---in' A. I placed a stink bid for SNE @ 16.25 and someone hit it (an hour after I placed it, and with 2 minutes left in extended hours). Hopefully it wasn't tof! Just 500 shares, so I doubt it. I don't think he plays that small, ever.
ReplyDeleteSne up big in japan
ReplyDeletehttp://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/6758
Could be a monster move coming in SNE. Monster. Extremely heavy volume in the first 30 minutes of trade in Japan. Already almost 6 million shares vs 9 million avg. +3.5% right now. If only I played options. Could be a 10 bagger move if its anything like last year's move.
DeleteThat kind of feels like walking into a casino and warming up by throwing a chip on the pass line with the point marker on SNE. First subsequent roll comes up SNE. Now I'm ready to back it up with odds, and add the 6 (GDX) and 8 (EEM). Haha.
Delete+5%. Wow. The day is only 1 hour deep. Could be a mammoth run.
DeleteI'm guessing miners and/or EEM triggered for Landry entries today.
ReplyDeleteA topic for DT:
ReplyDeletehttp://themindunleashed.org/2014/05/8-beers-stop-drinking-immediately.html
And the responses:
Deletehttp://www.forbes.com/sites/trevorbutterworth/2014/06/16/quackmail-why-you-shouldnt-fall-for-the-internets-newest-fool-the-food-babe/
http://brookstonbeerbulletin.com/new-yellow-journalism/
new post
ReplyDelete