All positions in miners closed for minor (pun intended) gains. GDX (+0.5%), SLW (+2.26%, GG (+1%).
I still think miners will spike hard either up or down from its recent 'channel.' The odds are it spikes
up. However, the spike up is likely to
be preceded by a false move down (and with miners the move is
characteristically violent).
It's best to wait for that 'change up' pitch.
btw, I closed TEDU yesterday for a small 3-figure gain. Didn't have the guts to hold for the end of day spike.
ReplyDeleteNice work. All I know is any time I go on a nice run, I am pretty confident I'll get a smack down immediately thereafter. Perhaps this time is different. Famous last words.
ReplyDeleteInteresting. My stocks have been up every month this year. And you know it is not because I am trading around them. Guess it lines up with the value is doing better than growth for 2014 approach. Golfed with another buddy last night and he is a very traditional conservative, balanced fund, dollar cost averaging guy and he was really happy with the way the year was going and was up between 8 and 10% YTD, so makes sense too.
DeleteI had a moment of clarity (or possibly lack of clarity?) and decided it was more prudent to stay long FSLR GM SNE since those are all in my opinion undervalued. I think my emotional weakness got the best of me there. Long for the gold...and the smack down, whichever comes first.
ReplyDeleteOf course stocks could do anything tomorrow on a news day, but longer term, the ECB wants economic growth which is good for stocks, so we're in a situation where if what they do works, stocks will go up and if it doesn't work, they'll do more until the economy gets better and stocks go up.
ReplyDeleteBoy look at the SOX. I think I mentioned this a few times. The long term chart is a thing of beauty.
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^SOX+Interactive#symbol=^SOX;range=1d
Just a classic breakout going on. That pullback in the index last month ALMOST had me buy SOXL...at $80ish
Solar
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-buffett-apple-google-love-174806632.html?l=1
REGI - What's up with that volume?
ReplyDeleteKB - Most likely a buy here?
ReplyDeleteMLNX - How about this baby now, was it ever a value play or was it simply a momo turd?
ReplyDeleteWhen I saw this the first thing I thought of was FIO. Wholly Chit. Take a look at the 2 year chart for both. freaking identical.
DeleteBALT
ReplyDeleteIf you look at a weekly of BALT for the last 4 yrs, sure is hard to say that is a bad chart and it has good lift in vol. I would have bought yesterday if not at appt's all day. Will try today, hoping for some weakness.
I sold this at about 6.88 after getting myself trapped at the first ramp to 7.20 in mid april. The daily is clean also above 200 and 50. What's not to like from a trend pov?
I am also looking to buy
DeleteThe data in this report is from 2012, but shows equity holdings as a percentage of portfolios at record lows and holdings of investment grade bonds at highs.
ReplyDeleteThis is a huge source of demand for equities as this reverses and bodes well for the long term bull.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/not-even-a-bull-market-can-interest-people-in-stocks-2014-06-05
GM ripping again
ReplyDeletePicked up some PIR $17.08
ReplyDeleteI'm liking this idea. ^
DeleteBought BALT at $6.36-8
ReplyDeleteAdded FSLR and GM.
ReplyDeleteNow 100% long.
There must be something about the way I'm wired that precludes me from trading at these levels. I simply just can't do it. I do like BALT though.
ReplyDeleteMCP crashed just for you! The rest of us are forced to live in your world, ya know. :)
DeleteChinese Iron Ore - If Chinese domestic iron ore production is expensive, then surely RE production must also be? So how about some RE from MCP?
ReplyDeleteGood article on PIR:
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/2229673-pier-1-imports-e-commerce-push-increased-share-buybacks-outsized-returns
The valuation is quite cheap at about 14 times this years earnings. They have a solid balance sheet and are buying back shares. I think furniture in general is somewhat insulated from Amazon as long as you're selling larger items that need to be sat in (LZB) or if you're selling unique items people can't find everywhere (RH etc).
Zero volume = no sellers remaining, right?
ReplyDeleteShipping rates generally rise over the summer / fall. There should be another run in BALT coming. Some of that is probably priced into the stock as it hasn't been impacted by the drop in rates thus far, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a run to $10.
ReplyDeleteTepper positive on the markets again - says worries have been addressed:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.cnbc.com/id/101668492
Russel/2000 way outperforming up 1.7% so far today - not sure if it signals a change or just a bounce in the ongoing outperformance by large caps. Might just be short covering on the European news.
ReplyDeleteI think I did the impossible today:
ReplyDelete4 of my 5 positions ended the day flat or down. The big up sell indicator worked again!
Sometimes our stocks move with the markets and sometimes against. Probably the market will be down tomorrow and your stocks will be up.
DeleteHa true. GM and FSLR had big up days yday too so due for pause
DeleteTSL has fallen back, not sure why but possibly the China Syndrome. I can't place trust with anything Chinese anymore, lost faith completely.
DeleteYeah me too. They clearly didn't like the gaps up in the solar stocks two days ago and are punishing anyone even remotely bullish on them. Well, except for SUNE of course. They're the golden child with negative earnings, a sky high price to book, but they have the illustrious yieldco on the way.
DeleteThus why I'm in FSLR. If they announce plans to do a yieldco the move on the stock, when coupled with a high short interest + a 13 forward p/e + $2.5Billion in cash by 2016 + a p/b of around 1.3, will be epic. It wouldn't surprise me to see a double within 3 months.
Picked up a little yelp on margin after hrs. Nothing crazy...about 3% of port just figured i like the company and there's a chance they skirt around google beast
ReplyDeleteHad to get a 'crown' today and I can still taste 'burnt teeth'.
ReplyDeleteA few fingers of Crown Royal might wash it away!
DeleteAnother swing at the miners. GDX/ SLW 22.55/ 20.88.
ReplyDeleteNo one can say you didn't try!
DeleteSold the YELP and PIR and moved it into FSLR around $63. Looking for a major move higher over the next year in this stock, which is largely dependent upon them doing a yieldco which I think they will. If not, there is plenty of downside support from what will be a $2B+ net cash position by 2016 and a very low p/e and p/b. The other catalyst is them getting into residential solar via their partnership with GE. I think this is the best investment opp I can find right now. I think it could see 100% upside within a year or two.
ReplyDeleteStill holding BALT, which I guess could see similar upside but there's more downside risk, and GM which could have 50% upside within a year or two.
DeleteMarket just grinding away to the upside. Looking at the broader indexes, DIA, SPY, IOO all in solid uptrends and at new highs, QQQ has now broken out to new highs and smallcaps (IWM, IWC) seems to have bottomed and now have higher highs and lows in place.
ReplyDeleteI think you just stay long and the best use of time is to try and find good stocks instead of trying to toptick this market.
I'm contemplating buying some AFL here for the long term account. In 2007/8 when it was trading at these levels it had ~$3 EPS and was paying an annual dividend of around $0.85 to $1.00 a share. It's currently generated $6.5ish EPS and has a $1.60 dividend. I don't know if it will trade at 20X p/e again any time soon but if they can grow the bottom line around 8% for the next 3 years it will have about $8 EPS. If it trades up to 15X then it could hit $120. Toss in $5 in dividends over those 3 years and the total return would be 100%. That's 26% annualized.
DeleteHaven't looked at AFL in detail. I read it is a well run insurer, but haven't bought because of it's high p/b ratio. It is likely deserved because of it's high return on equity, but I just personally prefer having the book value to help backstop the downside on financials (even if it doesn't always work).
DeleteThe other nice thing about insurers now is they are a good way to play rising rates as they will get revalued higher as their reinvestment opportunities grow, so that should be a tailwind in the next 6 months if the expectation of a rate increase in a year gets closer and holds true.
I know David Merkel, who is the best guy on insurance I know, has owned AFL in the past, but I don't think he does now. IT was on his latest list of possible buys though. If you want some good insurance reading, take a look at: http://alephblog.com/category/insurance/
DeleteHe really likes NWLI as well and has it as one of his few double weights. His theory is just hold it and wait for the value to be recognized.
I think I'm going to hold off on it for now just because they generate such a huge amount of earnings from Japan and there is the potential for a major currency move there. I want to get a good grasp of what that impact would be if the Yen goes nuts. I'm sure they have hedging programs in place but it's a risk I need to quantify. There's obviously a reason its trading at 9X earnings but is the reason valid?
DeletePretty much all of the life insurers are trading at p/e's like that. I think it's because people think they will have a tough time if the low interest rate environment continues. You can look at MET, PRU, LNC, etc.
DeleteKnowing how markets work, probably what will happen is the stocks go up first, followed by interest rates, followed by earnings, then the analysts will upgrade (am I being too cynical?)
Eddie Elfenbien (http://www.crossingwallstreet.com/) has AFL as buy for a few years now and identified it this week as one that was in a particularly good buying spot.
DeleteYeah I think you're spot on with the cycle working. These companies have never traded at these multiples before. I understand rates are low (and I actually think they will stay low for a while) but even in a low rate environment they have been able to significantly increase earnings.
DeleteThe reason I like AFL vs the others is because of the ROE, but also because they managed the recession extremely well. I did a screen for high ROEs + low p/es and decent dividends and AFL was at the top of the list. BAX, DE, CHRW were also on that list.
(a) I set limit orders to sell the miners at +1% gains, and it looks like they triggered.
ReplyDelete(b) I like the action in the global indexes at this point. However, being a 'pullback' guy, I need to wait for pullbacks before jumping in.
(c) All said and done, I'm up about +10% YTD. Most of the gains are attributable to trading Emerging Markets earlier in the year. It's been a lot of work in the past month for an incremental improvement in performance. I'm 'pretty sure' we're due for a significant correction, and plan no 'all in' trades until one occurs.
That's great especially considering how tough it has been to be a pullback investor this year. We haven't really had a decent market pullback since February, other than in the expensive small-cap stocks. And the precious metals which you like to play are still in a long term downtrend, so that one your also fighting against the tide.
DeleteThe best pullback this year was Emerging Markets during Q1. Then Social Media in Q2, but I didn't have the guts to play that one.
DeleteEffin A man. I knew I should have bailed on the FSLR when it gapped up two days ago. A 6% gain in one day is hard to come by. I decided to take a -0.3% hit and try for a better entry point on it. I suspect the weakness in the face of a very strong market is going to lead to further selling. Obviously, it's a risk as I think this is headed much higher, but perhaps a base needs to be built first...
ReplyDeleteShorts playing the Russell 2000 have been annihilated the past two days, which leads to me open a small position in RYIRX (Rydex 2x Inverse Russell 2000). An overnight (over the weekend, actually) play that will be closed Monday regardless of opening direction.
ReplyDeleteLooks like AFL actually does have a good deal of their exposure to the Yen hedged. I feel a little more comfortable about this. I bought a position in the stock at $62.48 for the longer term port as well as for the trading port. Most of the insurers have catapulted this week. AFL has been left behind probably for the Japan exposure; however, I think there's at least a trading opportunity here.
ReplyDeleteSell the rumor buy the news - Well, I really expected to hear a gnat had landed on the back of an elephant somewhere in Timbuktu, coaxing another major sell off. On the bright side, It's never too late for that to happen....
ReplyDeleteNWLI - A very nice week and I'm extremely happy I broke my silver miner rule(lesson) and took a double-sized position. LOL, and to think I also entertained the thought of doubling up on that had it fallen back to $222ish......
ReplyDeleteThe entry was $234 and Instead of complaining at $232, I should've loaded more.
Have another fantastic weekend guys, I know I will (As long as I can avoid trouble)! :)
I also added a little DXPE heading into the close at $69.7 for a trade to fill some of the gap down. Target $81. 5% position.
ReplyDeleteI was looking at Elfenbeins list of stocks for 2014:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.crossingwallstreet.com/archives/2013/12/the-2014-buy-list.html
pretty clear trend:
Retail blows: BBBY down 23%, eBay down 9%, and ROST down 8%.
I just heard this on TV - "The consumer is back"
DeleteI think that is true. But the sales patterns are changing due to web shopping. Look at auto sales through the roof. But big boxretail model is under pressure. Carl ichan bought 10% of dollar general, so thats where he sees opportunity.
DeleteI think that's a savvy move. Amazon won't encroach on their turf because shipping alone makes it impossible to compete with them
DeleteBBBY is tempting though, especially if housing continues to improve. Great balance sheet, cheap on p/e, buyback shares continuously.
DeleteYou might get a bounce but I'm thinking it's a value trap
DeleteDMND - Big volume day
ReplyDeleteTDW - New Orleans
ReplyDeleteNEWL...almost all gone.
ReplyDeleteAll Gone?
DeleteMan. The hits just keep coming. Kendra's best friend's sister was attacked the other day. Luckily she was able to fight off her attacker and run home....and one of Hailey's teammates 5 year old sister just had a malignant brain tumor removed. It's spread to her spine. Radiation and cemo to follow.
ReplyDeleteOh man, sorry to hear that. We're experiencing our share of issues too but nothing life threatening (yet), the closest we came was late last year.
DeleteAs far as attackers of young girls, it's more common than you might think. NEVER let them walk home alone, I guess.
How's Patricia?
DeleteThat's horrible to hear man
DeletePatricia is doing much better. Still a little tired but that's to be expected. Not much going on until radiation treatments in about a month.
DeleteThinking of taking a very big position in TLT.
ReplyDeleteDraw a line from the tops of 2012 - 13 - 14. That's gotta break first IMO
DeleteI was actually thinking of a trade just back to the underside of that line. But your idea is worth looking at longer term for sure.
DeleteIt looks like that line is right around where TLT is at right now. I'm actually playing the other side of that now with a big position in AFL which would do well if rates rose so I guess I'm biased.
DeleteI'd be only looking for 3 bucks.
DeleteMan I thought I was in boring stocks! TLT is the ultimate.
DeleteI believe Seth Klarman owned 30% of IDIX. My old boss bought 200k shares of ACHN 2 weeks ago because he read a lot about the Hep C market being ripe for consolidation due to GILD charging too much for their drug. Nice score. He said he's holding out for $10. I find it impossible to get myself to buy any biotechs. The fear of losing half my money overnight is too much for me to handle.
ReplyDeleteNWLI +$20 in 3 days. Wow.
ReplyDeleteOne of the 2014 mono stocks - haha!
DeleteLooks awesome man. Congrats so far.
DeleteI now own AFL, SNE, and GM (and a little DXPE). What the f&*!? is wrong with me?
ReplyDeleteI feel as though I'm nearing retirement...I believe I will be investing in annuities next.
DeleteRSI_EMA for the S&P 500 is at 86 which is quite high. However, I looked back at the prior times when the market rose 4%+ in the prior 2-3 weeks to new 52 week highs with RSI_EMA readings of this level or higher and there's no conclusive evidence of poor returns going forward over the next month or two. I was only looking at the past 20 years though, which isn't enough data because the majority of those came in the roaring bull market of the mid to late 90's.
ReplyDeleteWow. ACHN now up 66%.
ReplyDeleteTook off DXPE at $70.7.
ReplyDeleteadded AFL at $62.77
ReplyDeleteToday is setting up for a potential reversal so keeping my money in old man stocks with liquidity. plus these are the areas that still provide some value.
ReplyDeleteRYIRX closed the 1030 window down -1.12% @ 31.77. So the trade went against me. Closing 'immediately' was the right move, as the Russell 2000 is now up +0.9%.
ReplyDeleteIt's difficult to trade the current environment using my preferred methodology (buying negative sentiment), as there are very few attractive setups.
This is an environment where it pays to ask whether bulls or bears display more fear? IMO, it has to be bears hands down. I'm a bear, but the kind of bear who arrives at a gunfight and finds a secure spot on the roof. Those bears usually get to descend the stairs quietly afterward and walk home.
DeleteThe momentum in this market is way too much to consider shorting right now. The best a short can hope for right now is for the market to just kind of fizzle out. Shorting while it's moving up like this is nuts. Look at IWM after the March peak, for example. There were plenty of opportunities there. Just best to wait for weakness to show its hand is the experience I've gathered over the years.
DeleteI look at the 1987 chart from time to time to try to visualize this. I can't imagine how many people shorted the market earlier that year only to get squeezed out and then move to longs and subsequently watch in disbelief as the market plummeted.
DeleteI bought a little ACHN into the close at $4.25. I don't know a ton about this other than:
ReplyDelete(1) That volume is astronomical and oftentimes it's associated with more gains
(2) For MRK to spend $3.5 Billion on a company with unapproved drugs means the Hep C market is a HUGE market. ACHN from what I've gathered, has some promising drugs in the pipeline which recently were smacked down by the FDA but there's still a chance they gain approval.
FIATY breaking out of a base today. Looks like it could be setting up for more gains ahead. Still like that one a lot but just thought it would be safer with GM.
ReplyDeleteI also question the value of some of their brands. Chryslers have a niche with the 300 but I still think people view it as a cheap brand. And I don't see FIATs being more than a niche brand in the US. I know they sell a lot overseas though. And my wife's sister said she thought it was a "cute" car that would be fun to drive around in so maybe I'm underestimating its potential.
DeleteI was looking at Baupost's holdings since they were the largest shareholder of IDIX (owned around 33% of the company) and he has had one helluva few months:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.nasdaq.com/quotes/institutional-portfolio/baupost-group-llcma-86488
Largest holdings include MU, LNG, and IDIX. It also seems odd to me that this value investor is so heavily into some of these stocks. I believe he holds a lot of cash too because the total value of his fund listed in the above link is not close to his $27 Billion total assets under management.
TOF, re investing in old man stocks. I believe the market cycle has shifted from the small aggressive stocks to the large cap value type stocks and they will outperform for a year or two. This shift was very pronounced in Canada last cycle, so I may be looking too much for it, but it does seem to be happening.
ReplyDeleteRe FIATY, they have several things going for them. Chrysler is actually doing quite well in North American, pretty much solely through their trucks and mini-vans and is actually the #1 selling car company in Canada YTD. http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2014/05/canada-auto-sales-brand-rankings-april-2014-ytd-sales-figures.html
ReplyDeleteThey are also very strong in Brazil and a couple of other South American countries with 30% market share.
Their weak spot is actually Europe with the Italian plants being inefficient, but that is being addressed - this is the biggest risk.
Plus, they have plans to grow the Maseratti, Alpha Romeo and Ferrari to be much bigger profit generators.
But you really are better on Machinonne being able to pull all this off and they do have significant debt, so it is risky, but I think worth a shot and am holding.
Best selling car in Canada? Jeez you guys have poor taste...
DeleteMark,
ReplyDeletere TLT, I can't really comment on playing a 3% bounce, but I'd bet a lot of money it will be quite a bit lower (like $90 or $95) in a year or 3. I see it as high risk and not worth taking the chance on the long side. But could we get a quick 3% bounce, absolutely.
Where's CP? He bought NWLI last month at $234, so is up 10% in just a few weeks.
ReplyDeleteInsurance stocks have been doing well. AFL, amongst other favorable things, had the exact same chart setup as PRU before it ripped from $83 to $90 in a week or so. I think most of these could be anticipating rates moving up or perhaps they are just way too cheap relative to historical standards and the rest of the market. A lot of these have the room to go up at least 50% to get toward the lower end of average valuations.
DeleteThey're still old man stocks!
NWLI - Yeah this thing sure is moving now. Looks like I guessed the re-entry, based on the same phenomenon as AGO and the other insurance co. knockout moves we've been monitoring.
DeleteLove these old man stocks man, even I had a chat with an old man friend of mine yesterday and he said he thought rates would remain low for the foreseeable future. Claims he personally knows some smart money people. Also said they're making money on Brazilian real estate by borrowing in Brazilian Real and paying back in $USD's
I was preoccupied trying to knock out the planning stage of some electronics projects today, found my old Palm IIIc and got it charged up, the Li-Ion battery is still kicking after 14 years..... Gonna see about configuring some diagnostics apps back on this baby, either that or find an Android for the task. Maybe both, we'll see how it goes.
Now I have to play catch up by reading through all of today's TT posts. :)
'Salamander.' Another top-notch European thriller mini-series on NFLX, this one from Belgium.
ReplyDeleteMET, which I still own, has also had a 10% move in the last couple weeks, but is just flat YTD. They announced a $1 billion buyback last night after the market close, so that may help.
ReplyDeleteWith these life insurers, I think it is 1 of 2 things:
1. Investors see them adjusting their business models to become more fee based and managing more pensions and reducing capital requirements. They are obviously cheap on many metrics and people are starting to think that they deserve better multiples as they adjust to this new environment. Plus, they have less risks than banks as shown by how easily they got through the financial crisis.
2. People are trying to get ahead of interest rate increases and life insurers are perceived as one of the best ways to take advantage of rising rates. In some ways, bond have become momentum trades, not fundamental trades, with people buying them because they have done well and do not see the large risks they are taking. Rather than try and fight this tide and get the timing perfect with a TBT purchase, people can just buy a life insurer, get a dividend which is often better than a bond coupon, and get capital appreciation when rates go up.
Plus the whole argument about rates hurting them looks a little silly when companies like afl have doubled eps in past 6 yrs since last peak
DeleteNice move recently. Get MET, it pays! :)
DeleteAFL - Looks like it's breaking out maybe.
Oh my gosh my old boss told me he went all in on achn yesterday. He added to his position from $2.90. Wow nuts.
ReplyDeleteI actually bought more this morning at 5.4 and 5.7 but it's only about 12% of the port.
Oh man, great move! :)
DeleteCIE - This one might break out of the wedge soon?
ReplyDeleteSLW @ 21.19.
ReplyDeleteYour probably doomed. I was just looking at this one.
DeleteGG @ 23.41.
ReplyDeleteTLT - There's the entry maybe, at least it's cheaper today than yesterday. One thing we can probably count on is it's going the opposite direction of the general expectation.
ReplyDeleteCurrently my impression of the general expectation is rates will remain low, not sure if I'm correct.
I really think its best to just play with the insurers. I think the MET buyback news is a big catalyst because it highlights the value that is inherent in these stocks. I'm biased with a long in AFL but shit that could get to $100 and be reasonably valued.
DeleteI hate when a company uses capital to buy back stock, it just seems like that should be used to expand the business instead. Seems like buying back stock is an opp for insiders to unload?
DeleteJune 5th, 2014 by Meb Faber
DeletePrint Friendly
I think many still do not appreciate the ins and outs of how companies distribute their cash flows. Our last post included a must read on dividends and buybacks, and below I thought I would include a simple table to illustrate my main point (that ignoring either dividends OR buybacks is a big mistake).
I screened the top 2000 stocks by market cap on Bloomy. All values are median values below, and I took the top 20% by dividend yield and the top 20% by dividend + net buyback yield. (I excluded debt for the final shareholder yield calc as I’m trying to keep this simple). Note that the overall dividend yield for the market is about 2.2%, and the highest yielders are at 4.3% – this is what attracts the bees to the honey. However, what is missed is the net buyback column. Note that the broad universe, the median stock isn’t buying back any shares, and the dividend stocks are actually net issuers! That is what I like to call sneaky dilution – they pay you dividends with one hand, but issue stock with the other hand. In fact, of the top dividend stocks, over half are net share issuers…25 over 4%…
Anyways, note the div & buyback column. These stocks are buying back around 5% of their shares, in addition to the nearly 3% dividend yield. When you add up all the numbers (which don’t add up exactly as these are median values for each column), you can see why the math makes much more sense when you approach the issue holistically….
simple
- See more at: http://mebfaber.com/#sthash.v3h03FkV.dpuf
http://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/simple1.png
Deletehe's right...you also have to look at payout ratios and determine if they're being conservative or aggressive. looking at the current payout ratio vs historical standards gives you a sense of how much room they can increase dividends.
DeleteAFL's payout ratio is around 0.22 which is about avg. it peaked around .37 or .38 in 2007. i think 0.22 is too low. they also have been buying back around 2-2.5% of their shares annually.
http://www.gurufocus.com/financials.php?symbol=afl&Submit=Go
ROE's are off the charts for AFL compared to others in the industry. But they have lots of exposure to Japan (70% of revs) so they are susceptible to issues there. i personally think it's way overblown.
Not sure if you guys saw this:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-10/buffett-ready-to-double-15-billion-solar-wind-bet.html
I actually started buying back a little of my FSLR today at $62 and I bought a small piece of SPWR at $33.5. Not sure who is going to be the big winner but SPWR is in bed with Buffett and Google so odds favor them.
MCHP - Umm, this company. Check it out.
ReplyDeleteNVDA - That is, if you think NVDA's run is done. Both companies have some exciting products, MCHP seems to be making ASIC devices for developers who have ideas, such as this guy who is turning some segments on their ear.:
Deletewww.elmelectronics.com
I went through the entire semi space over the weekend and this was part of my buy list. The total list that I think looks attractive - the ones I starred looked the best on Sunday (HITT was purchased yesterday):
DeleteMCHP*
UCTT*
AMBA*
HITT*
BRCM
INTC
KLAC
HIMX
CRUS
SEV
INTT
POWI
MCHP - This one I think is interesting b/c it appears they are willing to fabricate custom devices for "hobbyist" applications, many of these "hobbyists" rank amongst the best techies out there and the chances of a big hit are extremely high, I think as these guys sell their ideas to the highest bidder or just sit back and enjoy the fruits of their labor.
DeleteThe Arduino crowd mixed with the internet of things on steroids if you will, this crowd is quickly approaching it's second wind I think.
http://www.arduino.cc/
Re Buffet and renewable energy,
ReplyDeleteAn old-man stock way of playing it is through Iberdrola Energy (IBDRY). They are the main electricity company of Spain, but also are large in the UK and US, and claim to be the global leader in wind energy. They pay a good dividend and get involved in a lot of projects. It's up 75% from when I bought it 2012 / 2013, but still under book value and everything is more expensive than back then.
Not as direct as the solar companies, but less project / financing /technology / management risk. Large market cap, so hard to move up as well, but I think it continues to get above market returns.
CP, your probably thinking of tech companies when companies buyback stock to offset insider sales and options. Many companies actually reduce float.
ReplyDeleteInsurer AIZ, for example, has reduced shares outstanding by half since 2005 - http://financials.morningstar.com/ratios/r.html?t=AIZ®ion=usa&culture=en-US
Yes float reduction must be the focus of a buyback, that's precisely the point I was attempting to gurgitate, thanks.
Delete(a) The unexpected spike in silver prices this morning: http://www.kitco.com/charts/livesilver.html
ReplyDelete(b) Silver Wheaton up +1.6% (up +0.4% from entry).
(c) Goldcorp up +3.37% (up +1.7% from entry).
(d) GDX up +1.71% (no position).
(e) Spot silver and gold prices up +0.6%.
(f) Commercials (those who buy/sell metals for a living) are net long.
(g) Large speculators (those who buy/sell metals based on timing strategies) are net short, and have rarely been this bearish (per Geoff).
I plan to add a small position in RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) at the close, something I rarely do. Why? There's a good chance the large speculators are about to get squeezed. Furthermore, the largest holding in RYPMX is FCX (Freeport-McMoran), a copper and gold miner which is trading down -0.86% at the moment- a minor plus for entry.
It’s a bet with an edge, which is what all trades are. Position sizing at this point is modest, and reflects a moderate level of confidence. However, there are no guarantees. Remember- if trading was ‘easy,’ we’d all be making lots of money!
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/seven-10-north-american-trucks-185748529.html
ReplyDeleteBodes well fro AA which continues to hit new highs.
YELP - I see an opportunity to make a quick $2 or more but would the entry be $65 or $63?
ReplyDeleteI've been tempted several times but have passed so far on re-entering.
DeleteTOF, do you recognize this device as similar to the device that monitors your driving habits?
ReplyDeletehttp://i.ebayimg.com/00/s/NTMxWDY1Ng==/z/H-UAAOxy4fVTByHF/$_1.JPG
The chip inside of this one was made by MCHP
yeah that's pretty much the same thing. this is it:
Deletehttps://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTXb6QWm9bj5_0Sofe2mfYtPl9stsdWF1duCAnJuyUb-6TzO8XT
I am still shaking my head at the move in ACHN. I bought about 7% yesterday at $4.25 then added more pre-market, doubling my shares. It ballooned up to a almost 30% position after today's move. My old boss just told me he held all 320,000 of his shares. He thinks the IDIX move pretty much seals a deal to $20 (I kind of agree) but he doesn't think he will be able to hold past $12. Either way, he made about $1.1 Million today. Nuts.
ReplyDeleteThis one just reminds me a lot of YRCW. Obviously it could open up down big tomorrow and if that happens it would suck. But I think the volume going through this indicates a much higher move coming down the road.
DeleteDude- You opened a position in ACHN yesterday following a +66% move. You added to the position this morning on a gap up. The entire position is now 30% of your port, and you're still holding following today's +83% move. It's now bidding another +3% higher after hours. ----in' A.
DeleteWish I understood that pharma business better.
DeleteWell I can rationalize it quite easily. Was up about 8% before opening it so all told it would have to go down 75% to bring me flat on the year. The comparable (idix)!got bought out for $4b and it's not much diff than achn...no approved drugs with "nuc" options. There's been a major push against gild and big Pharma knows how lucrative the NLT for hep c is. Achn is only one remaining with "nuc" and they got hit with FDA ban which was just lifted. Pre lift it was at $7.25 and major competitor got a 3x buyout so I think there's upside to $13ish
DeleteSorry market, not NLT
DeleteTechnically there should be upside to $21 to $25 based in comparable buyout valuation but I'm assuming it can run to $13. If I was all in I would have to reduce it today
DeleteI guess the FDA has to maintain a double standard.
DeleteWill ants (insects) eat my new 2018 Ford vehicle made from organic materials like coconut and tomato skins?
ReplyDeleteNot if I get there first!
DeleteCan they build it out of bacon?
Delete2454.TW - These guys seem to be making an effort.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteAHP setting up nicely.
ReplyDeleteGood eye, you may be correct.
DeleteFor those of you who don't hang on my every tweet...
ReplyDeleteI wonder if $KFX will be able to monetize Farmers deal. Pretty sure $MITK never could with Progeressive.
YELP - Cramer pumped this one, along with a couple others. Said YHOO should buy them and assemble the pieces.
ReplyDeleteFSLR / SPWR both acting well today. I think these go to $120 / $60 within 18 months.
ReplyDeletedoubled down on FSLR yesterday and sold half at 64.37, have an order to but back about 1% lower.
DeleteKMP sold half of this looking for weakness to buy back
Nice T3. FSLR is contending with that downsloping channel so I might do the same and hope for a lower entry.
Deletefrom UBS, solar
DeleteWhat is solar grid parity?
Solar grid parity is achieved when solar electricity costs as much as traditional electricity. We believe that
grid parity will become relevant as, once reached, solar installation growth could become exponential.
Over the past five years, solar panel costs have declined by c75% and today represent less than 40% of
the costs of a solar system. Installation costs differ materially, depending on market maturity. In this
report, we assess whether grid parity could be achieved in some parts of the world at current best-inclass
installation costs, using a proprietary IRR model.
Grid parity could already be possible at best-in-class installation costs
At best-in-class installation costs, several countries would already be at grid parity, mostly in the
commercial segment where most of the electricity can be auto-consumed seven days a week. Residential
grid parity will be tougher to achieve at current best-in-class costs due to often low auto-consumption
potential, leading to the necessity of (currently expensive) storage solutions. Solar still faces some
externality costs (back-up power, grid expansion) that will pose further challenges to grid parity.
Why grid parity is important: Solar demand could double in the next five years
As a result of possible grid parity in the commercial segment and adoption in several countries in Asia,
Africa and the Middle East, we anticipate that solar demand will more than double in the next five years.
Notably, generation costs could be decreased by up to 70% in the Middle East using solar instead of
burning oil to produce electricity. The industry could surpass US$100bn of revenues in 2016, 2.5x more
than in 2009, despite a heavy price decline.
Screw it. Sold FSLR at $64.1 and SPWR at $64.22. Hoping for a lower entry but might re-enter today if FSLR can break out of the downtrend by the close.
DeleteFantastic job on ACHN TOF to you and your friend. Your wife deserves a nice dinner this weekend.
DeleteHouston seems no hotter than Hawaii to me in the summers, but no tradewinds. I like war/hot so its okay. Houston is very green. It also has this cool Museum of Natural Science right down the street and we try to go once a week for entertainment.
Great trades/investing to all.
Thanks man. I actually traded a little more ACHN today between $6.9 and $7.2. Still holding the original position, though. Will see how it trades over the next few days but my sense is it has a good deal higher to go given all of the volume and the fact that it was trading at this level before the FDA hold (which was lifted yesterday) so the IDIX buyout premium isn't really priced in at all.
DeleteLooks like this move in SPWR / FSLR might be for real. Will probably have to buy back into both higher. Kind of makes sense from a psychology standpoint that they would go on a day like today after consolidating for so long.
BALT, all over the place
ReplyDeleteBummed about the AFL move today. Looks like a false breakout on the charts...probably a good spot to actually add, though. Fitch downgraded the outlook for a whole slew of Japanese insurers due to exposure to the JGBs. They actually ranked AFL higher but they downgraded their outlook.
ReplyDeleteAdded more AFL at $62.67/8
DeleteAlmost always makes sense to sell your losers and buy your winners. Something I always have to remind myself. Case in point: selling SPWR and buying AFL.
ReplyDeleteParity - NRG might be involved if/when their investment in low cost silicon production ramps up. How's MEMC doing, maybe a clue there in solar grade silicon prices?
ReplyDeleteAHP - Bang! Gotta love those @market orders?
ReplyDeleteBailed on all of my ACHN at $7.1 avg I think. I clearly got too greedy but I was thinking it would gap up today and at least give me a chance to close out of my position near yesterday's close at worst. My suspicion now is it gave up too much of yesterday's gains so it will stabilize lower. God knows I've been wrong before.
ReplyDeleteCleared out of most of my longs and bought TZA around $15.12 avg. Waiting for a better entry on everything.
ReplyDelete(a) Silver Wheaton off here @ 21.73 (+2% today, and +2.5% from entry).
ReplyDelete(b) Goldcorp off here @ 24.17 (+1% today, and +3.7% from entry).
(c) GDX (majors) currently +1.2%, which is likely where RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) will close.
(d) Odds are good that miners (GDX) have printed a ‘swing low’ today, which means they’ll be trending higher from here. However, I don’t trust the sector any farther than I can toss a gold nugget, and will close all positions by end of day! Total one-day gain for the portfolio about +0.4%.
(e) Note the beautiful negative correlation between miners (+1.2%) and the broader indexes (DJIA -0.64%, SPX -0.4%) today.
Bailed on TZA at $15.03.
ReplyDeleteI picked up BALT at $6.45, HIMX at $6.64. Both pretty small positions. Been wanting to buy both for a little while.
ReplyDeleteDecided to add HIMX. Been looking at this one all day. Valuation looks reasonable and doesn't really incorporate any upside potential. I think it has a chance to bounce back to $10. Looks pretty similar to YELP before it ran up 40%.
DeleteAgree with opening HIMX here.
DeleteI thought about it when it hit a 5-handle, but it's much safer buying on (what will hopefully be) the way back up.
Deletethat's the problem. there's no real sign of it being on the way back up just yet.
DeleteMy hope is that with a 20%+ growth rate expected in 2014/5 from some pretty high growth segments, buying a stock at 14X earnings with 1/4 of its market cap in cash is not exactly a high risk proposition. The reward outweighs the risk in my opinion at this price.
DeleteClose enough. No one rings a bell (where did I read that, Landry?) when it begins the journey North. IMO, it's headed North for awhile. Not to say it doesn't stall and drop even lower in a few weeks.
DeleteAnother asset I've been looking at for a ST bounce is VXX.
DeleteRH ripping higher after hours.
ReplyDeleteThat's Mark's fault.
DeleteEric Cantor - Glad to see this guy go.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteFSLR, refilled the half and added onto that, so let's see.
ReplyDeleteHere is why I like right here ST, draw a trend line off the high 6 days ago today's price broke above line, so I'm trading with possible price momentum shift. Price broke above the 7 day ema and is above 200 sma. The 50 sma is at 65.52 should make a run for that target. If it breaks 50 sma a real positive, but who knows.
Also I use a slow stochastic set fast (5,3) for turns and its just turning.
The trendline break concept is the same for BALT chart of 12 days ago.
HIMX does look interesting.
Thx.
DeleteAwesome explanation
DeleteAdded some more HIMX at $6.28 premarket.
ReplyDeleteCP must have been using my computer. There's an add for a variable temp. soldering iron where the porno add usually is.
ReplyDeleteLOL, We generally make our own soldering iron temp controller(using a light dimmer) but the control doesn't allow to set an exact temp, we have to keep adjusting till it's right. However if you really need this then your iron is probably too large (too much power) for the job.
DeleteIs the HIMX trade anything other than technical?
ReplyDeleteNWLI - What was the target, it's looking weak but could just be consolidating gains.
ReplyDeleteBB - Thems are fighting words:
ReplyDeletehttp://ibankcoin.com/flyblog/2014/06/12/boy-does-retail-suck/
I did a double up on HIMX and it's now a big position for me. Not all in big but a nice fat chunk o shares. Avg is $6.44. I have no idea if this is the bottom but I do like the possibility that it is should the stock close flat or even better, green. There's plenty of value in the shares with the major catalysts of multiple wearable devices + new 4K TVs coming out in the near future to propel top line significantly higher. So it trades at 13X already reduced earnings guidance with 1/4 of the market cap in net cash. We'll see. So far I'm underwater and hoping for a stick save.
Danka.
DeleteGood thing we delisted LULU a couple of years ago and moved the listing to the US to let you Americans ride the wave down!
DeleteDoubled up on BALT at $6.29. Really small position still but figure I'd like to keep some in the coffers in case rates skyrocket again this summer / fall.
ReplyDeleteNM my best US listed stock today. On a roll.
DeleteYeah I missed the entry on that at $8. I was so focused on YELP at the time...I actually bought it at $8 but flipped it for a $0.30 gain the next day if memory serves me correct. I do like that one a lot. It's much more stable than BALT. BALT seems to be an excellent swing trading stock.
DeleteCP, my target for NWLI would be over $400 (book value). When I look back over time, it peaks there consistently. Not sure when it gets there, but my guess would be in 3 years, the book value will be around $500 and that would be when we get up to book value, so a double in 3 years.
ReplyDeleteAs for the short term, a lot depends on factors outside NWLI (market direction, interest rates, economy, etc), but has been trending upwards since late 2012, so I don't see any reason why it couldn't continue.
Okay thanks, yeah now I recall BV is the target and BV keeps climbing. Sheesh my memory! :)
DeletePRU - I'm reading the insurance companies should be using smart phone tracking for pay as you go, as opposed to vehicle self-installed devices. Due to cost differential. This makes sense to me.
ReplyDeleteGLDD - ?
ReplyDeleteIf you guys want a top shelf growth stock with fairly good valuation, look at SLCA. I've had my eye on this sucker for months and have been kicking myself for not buying when it dropped back in January. It has been correcting a little bit the past few days. It has been on a tear for 4 months now so I'm thinking it takes about 4 weeks or so to get through a correction but it's a really good place to look to get long if it does correct further.
ReplyDeleteDang, some of these moves are just freekin' nuts, who the heck's throwing money around like this?
ReplyDeleteAHP - Betcha $1 it closes @ $16.79
ReplyDelete