Mornings like this are where it gets ‘tricky.’
(a)
I plan to close RYWYX (Rydex 2x Inverse
Emerging Markets) at the 1030 est window.
Based on current bids for EEM, the position would close with a +2.4%
gain.
(b)
On the other hand, the long bond continues
to climb. TLT +0.5% pre-market.
(c)
I ‘should have’ held RYTPX (Rydex 2x
Inverse SPX) overnight (now looking at a +0.7% move based on early pricing for
SDS), but I closed yesterday partly as a hedge against being ‘wrong’ on RYWYX. Since SPX closed flat, and EEM closed up
+0.51%, I decided shorting emerging markets was the higher-odds play.
(d)
The $USD continues to climb. Normally this places pressure on gold/commodities
in general. Early indications show gold
+10. Why?
(e)
Russian troops have ‘reportedly’ entered
East Ukraine. That's the 'news,' anyway.
(f)
RSX (Russia) trading down -3%
pre-market. I think a buying opp sets up
today.
Potential setups today: RSX (Russia), EEM/RYWVX (ie, making a quick ‘U’
on my emerging markets short), GDX/RYPMX (miners on an intraday pullback), RYWBX
(Rydex 2x Weakening Dollar), FXE (a bet on a reversal in the Euro), and RYMBX
(Rydex Commodities, which will benefit from a decline in the $USD).
Added EJ under 11, and LEJU under 16. Opened JCP @ 10.80. RSX @ 24.3x.
ReplyDeleteVALE @ 13.2x.
DeleteEntire LEJU position off around 16.6x.
DeleteJack Flash in the batting cage.
ReplyDeleteOur club is hosting a soccer tourney this weekend. I hope to have my life back after that. Add one more thing to the list of 'never do again'.
ReplyDeleteMONIF- Crap!
ReplyDeleteExisting homes sales contracts up better than 3$
ReplyDeleteHeading out to France for vacation in a few hours. Will follow my stocks, but hope not to spend too much time on it.
ReplyDeleteGet that market correction we are looking for while I am gone, so we can make some good buys in mid-September!
France, eh? Okay, I'm interested in what you find! :)
DeleteOh, and enjoy your trip!
DeleteGotta love these recurring bull traps, but the dip!
ReplyDeleteDB - Alright, in @ $34.34, for the next leg down (Break a leg!).
ReplyDeleteBALT - Holy crap, BDI is kicking it today.
ReplyDeleteCorporate after tax profit at highest level on record.
ReplyDeleteReopening UGAZ @ 15.83.
ReplyDeleteHave a good time on that trip Brent.
ReplyDeleteBDI - Yeah I saw that this morning and got a bit (too?) aggressive in SB/BALT/NM. I have about 50% of the port in those now. I still think that was just a major shakeout in all of those stocks. I don't think the re-entry will be clean which means it forces people to chase.
The best entry I got was in SB...avg is $8.45. BALT is $5.83, and NM is $9.5. I most likely will go all in on these guys over the next few weeks...hoping for a drop in the markets to add lower.
DeleteI also tripled down on PIR at $15.72 so my avg is $15.81. I'm looking to exit today though...hopefully. I'm thinking about moving some money into GOOGL and GM.
ReplyDeleteBLMN - If the boys are being separated then BLMN is certainly a man.
ReplyDeleteI like that one.
DeleteDB - I guess we'll have to wait till tomorrow to know which way this one gaps.....
ReplyDeleteI joined 2nd in the UGAZ trade. I bought at $15.777 today with a pretty large position. Unfortunately, I capitulated my PIR at $15.71 to buy UGAZ...right before they ramped it above where I bought. Dirty dogs!
ReplyDeleteNot sure yet if I'll hold UGAZ. Does seem to me that nat gas has room to run higher. That uptrend that started in 2012 has a trendline around $4.12. The most recent drop could have been nothing more than a false breakdown. I may give it the benefit of the doubt. Not sure yet.
Will be holding the shippers. I feel fairly confident that they have ample room to run the rest of the year.
UGAZ closed @ 16.30.
ReplyDeletenice trade. not looking for more?
DeleteI love the smell of napalm in the morning!
ReplyDelete(a) RYWVX closed the 1030 window +1.6%. Rather than reverse my stance using a 2x ETF, I opted to make the U-turn using EEM @ 45, which has now recovered to 45.13 (+0.3%). That’s a very weak bounce, and I plan to be out prior to market close. I may even elect to reopen RYWYX.
(b) LEJU-> added @ 15.95 to a position opened yesterday @ 16.64->closed entire position @ 16.61.
(c) EJ-> added @ 10.89 to a position opened yesterday @ 11.49. This position is not doing as well as its subsidiary LEJU. Currently trading around 11.10. I’m longer-term bullish on China, and EJ/LEJU are high-beta plays on the sector.
(d) RSX (Russia) opened at 24.35, and despite an intraday bounce to 24.50 still treading water. That’s OK. I’ll give the position several days to play out, and may even add on further conflict in Ukraine.
(e) RYJUX. I plan to take the 0.5% hit at close. There’s no guarantee markets won’t continue pulling back tomorrow, in which case bonds (TLT) will unleash ‘max frustration’ in the form of spiking higher.
(f) Holding VALE. Gold/silver miners are bidding somewhat higher, preventing me from opening positions on weakness. Instead, VALE (which mines iron ore, copper and coal in addition to precious metals) has corrected an amazing -7% this week against the backdrop of the Bovespa hitting new highs.
(g) Opening small positions in RYWBX (Rydex 2x Weakening Dollar) + RYMBX (Rydex Commodities) as discussed previously.
Sold ugaz at $16.36. Following your lead 2nd. Was tempted to keep but a good gain in one day on a triple leveraged etf is one worth taking especially when it's a nat gas derivative. One day this thing will absolutely fly
ReplyDeleteIt will undoubtedly take the red-eye when it flies. If you lack excitement in your life, open a position in NGas at the end of any day. When you wake the following morning, you can look forward to the outcome of a 14-hour spin of the roulette wheel.
DeleteTwo more NFLX recommendations:
ReplyDelete(a) Happy Valley. British kidnapping thriller with a twist.
(b) Low Winter Sun. Cop drama based in Detroit. Awesome footage of the Motor City at its worst.
I tried Happy Valley but couldn't hang with it. I'll check out B. Thx.
DeleteFRANCE!! Fing A...I get Fresno :(
ReplyDeleteYeah, well my big activity this weekend will be driving down the hill to the local art/wine festival. If I'm lucky, there might be a vendor from Fresno offering $10 bottles of French wine.
DeleteI can always open a position in NGas at Friday's close.
DeleteI'd like to visit Holland again, wooden shoe?
Delete(a) Current commodities futes> Crude Oil +0.53%, Gasoline +0.37%, Copper +0.44%.
ReplyDelete(b) $USD -0.04%, Euro +0.05%.
(c) FXI (China) and EWZ (Brazil) both bouncing, which hopefully translates into positive sentiment for EJ and VALE.
(d) RSX (Russia) pulling back another -1% on talk of tougher sanctions. I plan to add to my position intraday.
(e) US futes modestly higher. Gold + bonds somewhat lower.
So far this morning I bought a bunch of ugaz right at the open got filled at 16.03. Bought some more sb at 8.48
ReplyDeleteThis is my way of playing a potential pullback: buy natty and buy extremely depressed shipping stocks
DeleteGood idea, buy the ones that are beat to heck already b/c if history repeats they will at least be safe!
ReplyDeleteOil broke through support and looks now like $75 is the technical target but how many times before have we witnessed something break down thru support and then commence to ripping the shorts off in a big way? Who knows..... 5yrs oil might be $20 again? Doubt that.
Is the roulette wheel spinning clockwise today?
Here's a global bank ranking chart someone put together:
ReplyDeletehttps://yrah53.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/bank-rankings-aug-2014-top65.pdf
I was this close to selling UGAZ at $16.5x but passed...thinking its forming a cup and handle and there would be a shakeout in the handle period. the depth of the pullback is key. do they pull it back and keep it low or is it shallow followed by a rip higher? i'm thinking its the latter. that spike to $4.1 gets revisited I think (for $NATGAS)...and surpassed.
ReplyDeleteKeeping it on a short leash nonetheless.
Out. $16.3. Over. Been researching this REGI more and I think I like it.
DeleteHa. I wait all day and then sell. And what do you know. 10 minutes later it rips higher. Natural state of affairs in nat gas land.
DeleteHave you guys looked into REGI at all? Just seems to me that it is going to go on a run, especially in light of the huge moves in GPRE / PEIX / REX etc
ReplyDeleteI significantly added to my shipper positions today. I really like how they're setting up and in case anyone hasn't noticed...rates are up about 60% in the past month. Actually, it is as if no one has noticed. Not a peep about it. Most likely because everyone gave up on them.
ReplyDeleteWhich ones?
DeleteSB/BALT/NM. Slightly more in SB than BALT and slightly more BALT than NM.
DeleteBought back into LEJU...much smaller stake...around 10%....at $16.43. Looks like its basing here for another run up. The Zillow partnership is what I'm looking for as a catalyst. I'm done playing the EJ thing for the time being as these "value" plays in China don't seem to work out or if they do it will probably take years.
ReplyDeleteAlso bought 3% stakes in INUV at $1.43 and GRH at $1.966.
INUV is an interesting little company. They essentially start up websites, generate traffic, and then have a network of companies that pay for ads on those sites. I believe they use Google Adwords. The fundamentals are interesting. They shed a money losing division so it looks like top line is shrinking. However, gross margins are exploding: up from 46% to 57% in the past 5 quarters. They earned $0.02 last quarter and said in their conf call that July revenues were about 10% higher than the avg revenues per month for Q2. That pegs EPS at around $0.03 to $0.035 this quarter given that run rate. If that's the case I could see it trading to 20X ($0.03 x 4 or 0.035 x 4) EPS. So $2.4 to $2.8.
DeleteGRH is a total long shot. They're petitioning for a barge to haul excess frack water from the shale drilling via ship vs truck. Apparently there's a lot of spillage from transportation by truck and its harmful. There are petitions against their potential terminal they're proposing to set up. However, if they can win approval for it I think the stock could be a home run. Kind of like an LNG type play on a much smaller scale.
AHP is nicely back below my sale price and the chart is a beauty.
ReplyDeletehttp://m.economictimes.com/markets/global-markets/sp-500-stock-index-climbs-to-2000-doubles-in-value-in-16-5-years/articleshow/41263411.cms
ReplyDeleteWhat's your take away here?
DeleteJust based on the skepticism of people in the market, all of whom are expecting a drop soon, I'd say we go to 2100+ by end of year. This quarter was $30 EPS (>10% higher than last year) and next quarter is estimated over $32. That's a run rate of $128. $128 x 17 = 2,176. So I wouldn't be surprised to see higher prices. 2008 to 2011 all saw 15% or more corrections. I believe thats one of the few if not only times that has ever happened. So why can't we go a few years without a 10% one?
DeleteUGAZ pre-market @ 15.56.
ReplyDeleteDollar in the midst of a major rally. If it progresses as quickly as it has it could cause some large reactions in commodities and even equities.
DeleteThe broad markets need to sell off before I get interested. Commodities, on the other hand, are already busted.
DeleteWow, what's up with energy these days? Yoo much oil and gas at the same time the $US is on a tear, killing the gold and silver crowd as well, shoulda' bought DUST for the leg down..
ReplyDeleteAGCO - Sold this and now bidding on BOBE
ReplyDeleteBOBE - In @ $43.27
DeleteUAL - Gonna break out and run higher? From $38 to $49 in a couple months. What was the Crown Prince of Saudia Arabia doing in Europe this weekend?
ReplyDeleteFing internet ploblems...
ReplyDeleteGEVO - Has the monster run begun (ala PEIX)?
ReplyDeleteMEOH - One might believe this company that uses natty as feed stock might be running on lower nat prices, and it is.
ReplyDeleteDudes. Crash alert. Just sayin.' Probably wrong, but I'd be remiss not to put it out there.
ReplyDeleteWatch the dollar
DeletePIR - Fixin' to run up $0.30 or so to trap another bunch o' muppets, huh?
ReplyDeleteJust killing time by the pool doing some reading. Wouldnt have realized this without reading it:
ReplyDelete"Here's the truth: The last five years will probably be the best five-year period you'll ever experience as an investor."
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/08/29/you-are-the-problem.aspx
The last 5 years haven't been all that great for me, dang sure hope it doesn't get any worse.
DeleteStarted positions in GM too high around 34.87. Sold leju at the open and Inuv at 1.6. Sold grh for a loss at 1.86. Holding shippers.
ReplyDeleteMight have gotten lucky with ugaz at 14.6. I think that's the one commodity that can rally due to its inverse nature since 2012 and upcoming exportation supporting it
BXE - Well, the recent gap up is about filled now so there ya' go....
ReplyDeleteHas anybody read "Stuff", I'd have to work too hard downloading and upgrading whatever it is that makes the PDF unreadable just to read some kind of "it's gonna go up but then maybe it's not unless it does" psychobabble?
ReplyDeleteAdded to UGAZ @ 14.60, and out @ 14.90.
ReplyDeleteEPI - Notice this one is up. The question is, does it get whacked again from here or is this not a typical natty-style breakout?
ReplyDeleteThere’s always a tug of war between capital gains and capital preservation. It’s been a long time since capital preservation was key. I think we’re approaching that time.
ReplyDeleteSeems like everyone wants to sell each new top for a reload.
DeleteSomeone was making a case last week that dollar strength should be positive for US stocks, but conveniently forgot to explain how that mechanism worked.
ReplyDeleteStill holding ugaz and will carry it for a few days barring a stop out. About 15% position which is manageable for me. I like the crash entry point
ReplyDeleteWould be nice to rally back to fri close before the report then rocket higher
Delete(a) GDX (majors) currently off -3.2%, GDXJ (juniors) -3.7%.
ReplyDelete(b) DBC (Commodities) and WEAT (Wheat) -1.5%, crude oil -3%.
I should be buying. What's stopping me is the persistent bid under the $USD, up an additional +.36% today. I'm not smart enough to know 'why' oversold commodities continue to sell off/an overbought $USD continues to climb. Most market 'explanations' emerge after the fact.
I currently hold three positions:
(c) RYWBX (Rydex 2x Weakening Dollar).
(d) RYMBX (Rydex Commodities).
(e) HDGE.
All three are small positions. I'll take the hit on the Rydex funds end of day (wrong bets). The HDGE is a running position. Not saying the markets will crash, but conditions are in place for one + the $USD action feels 'jiggy' and I'm a little nervous.
The dollar is key. I've been positioned for this potential spike for 5 months now after seeing exact same pattern set up as nat gas pre spike to $6. Not saying it spikes but odds are as good as ever. Remember crashed typically occur during oversold conditions reverse is true
Deletenew post
ReplyDelete