My retrospective take on today's market action (I was preoccupied with other matters during the regular session):
(a) Last night's 1890 print in SPX futures probably marked a 'wash out' short-term low. Note that US traders without futures accounts would have had no opportunity to buy.
(b) Against that backdrop, buying this morning's gap up would have required strong conviction. That conviction would have been tested twice in the first hour of trading.
(c) An oversold rally finally emerged mid-session, undoubtedly fueled further by short-covering.
(d) In hindsight (always 20/20), I should have reopened the 'throwback rally' trade at yesterday's close. An even more nimble move would have been to short the markets @ 1030 am Thursday, simultaneously upon closing my longs-> then to have executed the reverse trades at 1030 am today. All missed opps.
(e) I did open a small position in RYTPX (Rydex 2x Inverse SPX) at today's close. Why? I'm pretty sure today's buyers will be tested Monday morning. I'm also open to being wrong, but closing exuberance and proper sizing provides a decent buffer.
Nice finish from DB up 1% from my purchase. Will be interesting to see if get the chance to add lower. Set an alert for $31.
ReplyDeleteNice move. I should have recognized that my own capitulation on the stock in July might set up a decent entry.
DeleteMark,
ReplyDeleteI still eat McDonalds, although there are better places. Hard to beat the fast driveth rough and the value menu (not a dollar menu in Canada) for a quick, cheap lunch.
Have to do it when my wife is not in the car to avoid the disdain your kids are probably giving you though.
ETN - This one seems grossly overdone too?
ReplyDelete“Our only limitations are those we set up in our own minds”
ReplyDelete― Napoleon Hill
https://www.goodreads.com/author/quotes/399.Napoleon_Hill
This weeks' NFLX recommendation: 'Secrets and Lies,' a six-episode series out of Australia.
ReplyDeleteSubtitles?
DeleteDude.
DeleteHahs
DeleteAny news from Europe? I think they were parading on stage shaking hands and signing more treaties?
ReplyDeleteReversing on a dime. I do it all the time, and it's second nature. Futures are positive. It now appears the SPX printed a ST low last Friday, and may be headed higher for the next day or two.
ReplyDelete(a) Will close RYTPX at the 1030 est window, probably for a fractional loss. No worries.
(b) I may also elect to open bullish positions in the Russell 2000 and/or the SPX this morning.
FLWS - "10:00AM 1-800-Flowers Uses Bitcoin as Payment Method Zacks"
ReplyDeleteI'm dialing 1-800-PATIENCE right now.
ReplyDeleteDB back down below my purchase price this morning. Not sure why as the German market is up 1.7%. I suspect DB got ahead on the US market on Friday as there is no company news today.
ReplyDeleteOh well, nice green market overall
Was looking at those, BACML prefers UBS and currently has underperform on DB
DeleteI don't know why it's down either, unless maybe it's a fake move or Germany's wows are deeper than anticipated (I find this hard to believe since port traffic is up in Europe and China, has the traffic peaked?).
Long GM in in laws account. 33.5
ReplyDeleteUGAZ @ 15.72.
ReplyDeleteBOIL - Wild Thing! I think I love you.....
ReplyDeleteEPB - Part of the buyout/merger/consolidation? I only caught a few words on this.
ReplyDeleteMNKD/TKMR - Today is biotech day again.
ReplyDeleteDG - I suspect someone unloaded b/c he didn't want to wait.
ReplyDeleteAlso from Europe in the (belated) news, bank stress tests are being conducted (Umm, were they raising cash?).
ReplyDeleteMCP/GMO - They figured out they were shorting the wrong name.
ReplyDeleteIf LEJU can catch just a whiff of Z's valuation then it's going to triple or quadruple from here.
ReplyDeleteEarnings have to come through, obviously, but I still think the Z partnership launch will be a major inflection point in terms of validation.
DeleteNice patience on the GM purchase TOF
ReplyDeleteFigured I was probably still too early so I left room for them to add around $31.
DeleteYELP - Looks like it wants to run, don't it? If they only have 1% of the market than how can that be if everyone uses them? Yep, I am clueless of the mechanisms (Take BIDU as an example).
ReplyDeleteLove YELP. Just wonder if Google can take over their moat. I think there's a decent shot it doubles.
DeleteThe right thing for GOOG to do would be to buy YELP, IMO. Yes, I'm quite sure GOOG could handily crush YELP if they decided to.
DeleteGOOG already tried to buy YELP and YELP chose to stay independent. Steve Jobs actually called the YELP CEO directly to advise him to decline GOOG. I think they want to stay independent. The upside is immense if they can win the local space.
DeleteLooking around under the hood, it appears something may have changed for the positive. Or short covering? I kinda think now, euro banks were raising capital for their stress tests near the recent highs and created a selling spree?
ReplyDeleteCopper - Looks like large traders are net long, and have been getting long for quite some time. Will the electric car use copper or aluminum wound motors?
ReplyDeleteJust because I enjoy, to a certain extent, taking risks I decided to buy YELP at probably an inopportune time (ie after a decent rally) at $69.8. I can think of many catalysts.
ReplyDeleteEh Sold at $70.04.
DeleteI did keep a smidge in my in-laws account
DeleteSouFun (SFUN) shareholders are having fun today.
ReplyDeleteI'll be here all day.
BALT = too funny
ReplyDeleteStill lower than it's been all year, expect for the last week. NM jumping too.
DeleteMight be the bottom. The hard thing about shipping is it is very cyclical and it is hard to tell if people are building too much now. I read scrapping is down, so that also increases supply. Plus, guys like Wilbur Ross are going after energy shipping, not dry bulk, so not sure how different those markets are.
(a) RYTPX closed the 1030 window down -1%.
ReplyDelete(b) Reopened a position in UGAZ near the morning lows @ 15.72. Currently bidding 16.08. Contemplating a longer-term hold, as the trend in NGas now displays a clear change in trend.
(c) The US indexes still positive, but backing off the day's highs.
The questions is whether (c) presents a buying opp. Trading is never easy. I'm pretty sure we move higher. On the other hand, I don't like to chase. I'm also watching resistance levels (from which indexes are likely to pull back once more).
I get paid the big bucks to make the hard calls (well, a buck or two in the form of 'Two Buck Chuck' anyway). Odds for a 1-2% bounce from current levels (to 'resistance') look good. Bonds 'feel' like they need to pull back. Utilities are pulling back. I also know the market loves to juke the majority of players. My 'take' is that most traders are now bracing for a sell off. So I'm planning to open small positions in the following at the close:
(a) RYEUX (Rydex Europe).
(b) RYTNX (Rydex 2x SPX).
(c) RYJUX (Rydex Inverse Long Bond).
Could I be wrong? Sure. That's why they call it 'risk.' It's a decent pitch, and I'm choosing to swing rather than wait. I have another 20 minutes before the ball crosses the plate. I'll let you know if I decide to check my swing.
HIMX absolutely ripping higher the past 2 weeks.
ReplyDeleteI still can't believe how much BITA has ran. I kept debating buying it back around $12 about a year ago.
ReplyDeleteJCP announces earnings August 14.
ReplyDeletehttp://seekingalpha.com/article/2411315-bmo-skeptical-j-c-penney-can-hit-breakeven-cash-flow-this-year?uprof=45
'BMO analyst Wayne Hood has above consensus expectations for gross margin growth, but still thinks breakeven cash flow is unrealistic.
'J.C. Penney Company Inc. (NYSE:JCP) made huge improvements in free cash flow last quarter, from a $752 million cash burn in Q1'13 to $271 million in Q1'14, and management gave the promising guidance of reaching breakeven free cash flow for FY2014. But BMO Capital Markets analyst Wayne Hood just doesn't see how the retail chain can get there before FY2016, and expects the market to be disappointed when JCP earnings come out August 14.
'"Even in the most optimistic of scenarios (a combination of a hockey stick recovery in sales, strong gross margins, and improved working capital efficiency), we believe the company will be hard pressed to achieve management's breakeven free cash flow target," writes Hood, who rates J.C. Penney as Underperform, with a $5 price target (currently $9.37).'
Wayne Hood's comments are exactly what I want to read going into earnings: low expectations and a target price about half where it closed today. Opened a small position in JCP @ 9.59 after hours.
UGAZ off @ 16.50. +5%.
ReplyDeletePer Cashin UBS
ReplyDeleteA Word From The Wise – A friend passed along this synopsis from the McClellan report that was published
early last week, well before the Friday bounce:
BOTTOM LINE In the 2nd year of a 2nd presidential term, August and September are supposed to be
weak. So far, on schedule. But the stock market is oversold and needs a bounce before continuing
lower. Another bottom is due Aug. 19-22, then another Sep. 9-12. Gold is now well into the window
for a major 13-1/2 month cycle low. It still has downside work to do, but the next legitimate upturn
should be chased. T-Bonds have broken their inverse correlation to stock prices, and appear to want to
continue higher. Our read of commodities shows that rumors of a strengthening economy have been
exaggerated.
That looks like a reasonably specific roadmap. Let's see how things work out.
"Our read of commodities shows that rumors of a strengthening economy have been exaggerated."
DeleteHard to know about demand when the currency keeps moving. UUP iH&S is playing out nicely?
It appears stock prices have broken their inverse correlation to T-Bonds.
DeleteSorry I've been a little hit and miss here. Just really busy but things should be back to 'normal' soon I hope! Patricia update... She had her post radiation scan and the remaining cancer is 'where it's supposed to be', so that's good..ie, it hadn't spread further. She has an appointment in a few weeks but I suspect she is 'done' with this step and now in the monitoring mode. Thanks for all of the good wishes.
ReplyDelete...it's a small world. Robin Williams went to my high school and was married to Sue, a good friend of mine from high school as well. So sad.
Take good care of Patricia!
DeleteI'm upset with Robin Williams, assuming the story is true. For doing this to himself.
BXE - Going back to $3 I guess, maybe lower?
ReplyDeletePM miners - For the first time in a few years the 13 and 34 ema's have turned up?
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p36890958271
Metals and Mining: "Short interest inched up slightly in July vs. the market's 1.2% avg rise. BTU short interest climbed 22% to an all-time high. Metals and mining stocks have outperformed with some of the riskier stocks up the most despite an overall market correction. We continue to prefer NUE, and also like STLD and RS as we see non-res construction gaining momentum into 2015E.
ReplyDeleteSo the US is shipping refined petroleum products like gasoline to Saudi Arabia, eh?
ReplyDeleteMCD - Where does MCD already pay $14/hour? West Texas baby, oil central. Million-dollar homes are popping up in the city of Midland like dandelions on a spring hillside.
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Talk about hard ball, this one's a tennis ball lately.
ReplyDeleteBXE - Damn, another $0.18 WTF?
ReplyDeleteWhich oil companies do you guys have, any besides BXE?
ReplyDeleteEUO/UUP - Amazing, this ETF actually tracks the UD$
ReplyDeleteClosed UGAZ pre-market @ 16.50 (highest print during the regular session has so far been 16.43) for a +5% one-day gain. Reopened a @ 15.99.
ReplyDeleteNo gap up today. But I like the action in the US indexes> attempts to take down the SPX have been met with bids at the ‘lower band.’ After trading down as much as -0.5% to 1928, the SPX is now back to 1934. I still think there are decent odds it spikes to the Khrushchev years before plunging further.
My short on the long bond paid off, with TLT off -0.65% today.
Europe (VGK) trading around the flatline.
I closed RYJUX (Rydex Inverse Long Bond) end of day for a +0.73% gain. The drop in bonds lends support to the thesis that stocks will eventually catch a bid. Relative strength in Emerging Markets (EEM +0.06%) also supports a US rally. Thus I plan to hold RYTNX (Rydex 2x SPX) and RYEUX (Rydex Europe) overnight and give the positions another day to play out.
CP,
ReplyDeleteI own CNQ, SU and JONE in energy in addition to BXE plus a few Canadian smallcaps. I wouldn't sell any now and added to TBE.TO recently. I am currently 14% in energy stocks and am leaning towards increasing this, but haven't yet.
BXE is one of the cheapest energy companies on many metrics and I feel quite confident that it will be up 50% in the next year or so, but energy companies can have many operational issues, so these can hurt, plus this timeframe may be longer than you'd like. I bought it for $3.89 back in 2010 (but everything was cheaper then) and haven't sold any.
DeleteThanks BB! I want to add more energy at some point but I'm not sure I want to add BXE so I will keep an eye on those. As far as valuations are concerned, probably my data is incorrect, as usual. It appears BP is cheaper than BXE?
DeleteThe oil is back flowing in West Texas, it appears they finally turned the taps back on after a 30 year hiatus.
IACI - Still cheap?
ReplyDeleteREGI - Seems to have broken out and now the knockout is in progress?
ReplyDeleteCCCR - Has gotten progressively cheaper, take a look.
ReplyDeleteFU - What happened to this one, did it die or get a new name?
ReplyDeleteCP, a lot of the value guys like BP, but I haven't looked into it. The good about BP is its yield and it is well run. The bad is the gulf spill is still ongoing, their Russia exposure (not sure how much), and the majors inlcuding BP are having a tough time replacing reserves.
ReplyDeleteBXE, on the other hand, has a good land position and lots of reserves. It's issue is more about getting it out of the ground, so that is abeter problem to have. Its stock is trading at half the value of its proved and probable reserves, so could be a good takeout target as they increase production.
The catch is, of course, if the price of oil continues to drop. I don't think it does with the economy improving and demand from China increasing, but US and European demand seems weak and supply growth due to fracking/horizontal drilling strong. I think if we did get a big pullback in the price of oil, a lot of this incremental oil supply would fall away, so it would be self-correcting, but that would take time.
DeleteUGAZ Longs getting gazzed again.
ReplyDeleteOil going to $90? I think it could.
ReplyDeleteIf it does, you'll probably get better prices on energy stocks. Hard to see them making progress while the price of oil falls.
DeleteBut it is really hard to say if it does go to $90 as there are a lot of crosscurrents in the energy market.
But the futures for WTIC out a couple of years are around $90, so maybe that is the right price once Iraq/Libya/Russia get straightened out. I think most of the oil sands and frackers keep pumping at $90, so no hit to supply. On the demand side, I think that China will be looking to secure supply into declining prices.
DeleteAgree with that, I give West Texas oil fields 5 years before the "bust" (a big guess) and there is still no replacement for oil as far as I know.
DeleteYELP - Of course it rips higher, b/c I sold it.
ReplyDeleteI sold too. Although my in-laws still have it.
DeleteCopper is getting smashed again.
ReplyDeleteI bought some ZU today at $36.1. Love the setup and the growth in the company, valuation sucks but I know how much my wife and her friends spend on that site so its worth a trade.
ReplyDeleteSold it at $36.27. Should have sold after the $1 move in 10 minutes.
DeleteBack in at $36.5, gracefully
DeleteGEVO - Reports earnings in AH...
ReplyDeleteTCEHY (Tencent) reported monster earnings today. Revenues for 1H 2014 grew 37% to $6.2 Billion and profit rose 58% to $2 Billion.
ReplyDeleteRevenues for Q2 2014 grew 37% to $3.2 Billion and profit rose 58% to $947 Million.
Mkt cap is $160 Billion
My broker doesn't even cover it, wonder why? What a turd my broker is.
DeleteI still think it was totally unnecessary to retest S&P 1900, why sell when there's not a real reason?
ReplyDeleteSold YELP in my in-laws account at $73.3.
ReplyDeleteSD - I suppose Leon Cooperman must be working for special interest groups considering his talking up of this one last october. Let me guess, he talked it up again late June this year?
ReplyDeleteCan 1945 hold? I bet shorts are salivating.
ReplyDeleteKWK - Off the cliff again, really glad to have side-stepped that temptation! :)
ReplyDeleteSold GM at $33.91 for a modest gain. I still feel as though it has a date with the $31's. Any whiff of bad news at this point will send the stock careening down given how many body blows it has gotten. Doesn't mean it won't be a decent amount higher in a year.
ReplyDeleteBTUI - My secret solar play is ripping, wonder if these are the guys who will produce NRG's molten silicon source furnace?
ReplyDeleteA flurry of suits filed against YELP and an upgrade.
ReplyDeleteBeen there done this too many times and never got ahead: "Japan Economic Watch: April-June GDP contracts sharply, but outlook bright"
ReplyDeleteBXE - This one didn't fall any further today, what a load of cr@p!
ReplyDeleteDB - I was gonna buy some DEUTSCHE Ball if it closed over 33.30.....
ReplyDeleteBDI - Definitely has been moving in the right direction now a few days, can it stick?
ReplyDelete$WTIC futures - If futures are lower than expiring contract then I'd roll mine forward and pocket cash if possible.
ReplyDeleteNew Post
ReplyDeleteUGAZ - Was hoping for more gazzing...
ReplyDeleteBLMN - Marks been unloading all morning! :)
ReplyDelete