Midday update:
(a) US indexes off an average of -0.6%.
(b) EEM -1%. EWZ (Brazil) now -4%.
(c) DBC (Commodities) -0.5%.
(d) GDX (Miners) -1.8%.
(e) TLT (Long Bond) -1%.
The only green on my screen? UGAZ (+1%), which I'm taking off here @ 13.90. And HDGE, currently +1%.
No place to hide! I recently considered a position in inflation-protected bonds, but even TIP is down -0.4% right now (that doesn't work for me).
Note that Brazil has given up 5 months of gains in one week! Prices take the elevator down, and that kind of plunge can happen to any asset class. I don't mind taking hits, as long as they're small. We're all responsible for our portfolios regardless of the funds or assets we've chosen. Today's action isn't necessarily reason to bail, but all major corrections begin with distribution. The financial media is full of quotes telling investors not to worry about today's selloff. That worries me.
Cash + HDGE by end of day.
Not a single headline in the financial media re Brazil (at least, I don't see one). Unreal.
ReplyDeleteEPI - Sell under $23.04
ReplyDeleteXPO - ?
ReplyDeleteEWZ - Saw something today about still suffering from WC hangover.
ReplyDeleteI got a notification from Wells Fargo about Apple Pay. This looks to be a huge thing.
ReplyDeleteThey should call it "Executive iPay", or something catchy like "Apple iCoin". "PAY" doesn't strike me as being particularly inventive, except perhaps from a "less is more" perspective.
DeleteI know everyone hates the online / mobile games companies but look at ZNGA. Looks like its rounding out and potentially forming a cup and handle pattern. Has 1/2 of mkt cap in cash and is right around cash flow positive.
ReplyDeleteI think BACML had a buy assigned to ZNGA
DeleteAlso looks like DE is worth a stab here.
ReplyDeleteI think re the broad markets the things you have to consider are:
ReplyDelete1. we are still only down 1% or so from the all time highs
2. since May of 2012 (29 months), we are up over 50% on the S&P 500 and have not had 2 negative months in a row
So, are we about to start a major correction? Possibly, but in the current market, it sure seems like the right thing to do is just stay long and even if we get a 20% bear that we don't sidestep, the gains from this bull will more than offset the missed opportunities.
The other thing - I have a spot on my desk where I keep a printout of one key thing for my current trading that is front and center and I just switched it from the market rotation article from April to Ryan Detrick's 6 month Presidential Cycle return - http://stocktwits.com/message/26670358
ReplyDeleteI want this to remind me that we are very probably in the best 6 months of the Presidential Cycle and to be ready to take advantage of this.
I wonder if Cuba might not be part of this? And what other positive things might happen during the period. Notice energy has been taking a hit, that has to be a positive for political campaigns.
DeleteWe're probably ready to roll over. My schedule is opening up so I'll have more time to put some trades on. You know I'm already thinking commodities and the shippers
ReplyDeleteBTW, construction around here is on fire.
DeleteRYWVX (Rydex 2x Emerging Markets) closed down -3.28%.
ReplyDeleteRYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) closed down -1.5%.
RYMBX (Rydex Commodities) closed down -0.85%.
I worked pretty hard for a +3% gain between May and August (when I hit my YTD high). My trading misfires the past few weeks have taken my portfolio back to mid-May levels. That's as much as I'm willing to give up playing the end game of a 5-year bull. Today felt like distribution, the unloading of large positions by institutions. In my mind, it's now a bear market. My strategy during bear markets has generally been to sit in cash. Shorting is difficult, not to mention stressful. I unloaded HDGE near the close.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G9bt3bmnsPY
I won't make money holding cash (or as Ed Dempsey would say, there's no volatility in cash! ATACX closed the day down -0.71%, which leaves them exactly +0.53% YTD- incredible). But neither will I lose money. And when investors return to Desolation Row, I'll have plenty of firepower.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=35gheud5xBo
BB - I agree with you. I don't really think the setup is here yet for the market to roll over into a 20% correction. Most traders are bearish due to "negative divergences" aka Russell 2000 weakness and overall market strength. Think about how many people are on the bear side right now in the small caps. Who out there that you know of is calling for a breakout in small caps?
ReplyDeleteThis is what I had time to reflect on after getting hit by the shippers yet again today. Those things are starting to piss me off which means we're probably pretty damn near close to a buy point. I checked and I dropped 8% of my YTD gains from that group. Still seems to me like in the bigger picture they're just consolidating gains and gearing up for another leg higher in 2015.
DeleteYou know Mark, all the stuff about stock fundamentals and technicals is all crap and the reality is the market revolves around you!
ReplyDeleteThat's good to hear about construction as construction is a key driver for jobs which in turn drives spending and the overall economy. I find it really hard to see we get a recession or even a poor economy while construction is doing well.
ReplyDeleteThe other area of the market that I would look at Mark is financials. It is the largest part of my portfolio and many of these will increase earnings as the economy improves and interest rates rise. Plus the valuations on most of these are below market and below historical averages.
ReplyDeleteThis story appears to confirm construction is booming in certain markets, and provides a small bit of insight:
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/why-states-beginning-examine-issue-130111135.html
SFD - Watched a piece on the buyout of SFD and the message was there's more of this type of strategic acquisitions on the drawing board.
ReplyDeleteSFD?
DeleteSmithfield, maybe the ticker is no more.
DeleteFLWS - $7.10 close.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the market liked the earnings, up almost 40% in 2 weeks.
DeleteGuess I should have held on a while longer - did you keep any?
Unfortunately no, I was knocked out as the share price was under pressure.
DeleteTSN - This one has been a double, how about a triple?
ReplyDeleteTA - An example of an iH&S
ReplyDeleteWhat's likely to happen in the energy industry once the pipeline is approved for construction, I guess a loser (friend of the administration) might be railroad but there will be winners, right?
ReplyDeleteTransCanada Pipeline (TRP) is the obvious one. But pipeline suppliers like Shawcor will benefit and a lot of the small Canadian Energy companies will see better pricing.
DeleteBut I think the real winner is the overall economy as it will help keep the cost of energy down through reduced transportation costs and create a very safe way of delivering energy. It is really dumb now that the US lets companies deliver oil by train which is far more dangerous and damaging to the environment than pipelines and blocks pipeline development even though there is over 2.5 million miles of pipeline in north america.
The reason this pipeline has not been approved is b/c special interest groups have been positioning themselves.
DeleteVLO - Lower trend line
ReplyDeleteBXE - What do you guys think of the volume increasing over the last 6 months, does this look healthy?
"Most traders are bearish due to "negative divergences" aka Russell 2000 weakness and overall market strength. "
ReplyDeleteI think this is just another wall of worry item that will keep people out of the market longer. I believe it is just sector rotation to large caps as small caps have outperformed and are valued higher on many metrics.
DE looks like a nice candidate for a snapback
ReplyDeleteThe trend line break crowd is probably really bearish on de. Maybe the commodity bears too? Trades at 9 times trailing eps. Very well run company. I bet it rallies to over $100. If only I played options seems like a low risk one
DeleteSince 2004 DE has repurchased 30% of their shares outstanding.
DeleteA guaranteed 5% investment return? It's not possible right now.
ReplyDeleteI have some funds invested in an employer-funded plan that formerly guaranteed 6%/year, which was then revised down to 5%/year in 2012. The guaranteed 5% return is their problem, not mine. I don't know how they do it. Maybe I'll ask them next week.
Apart from that, here are the alternatives I've found:
(a) Pay off your mortgage, assuming you have a 5% mortgage. But why would anyone use retirement funds for that purpose? And few own 5% mortgages right now (we refinanced in 2012 at 3.75%).
(b) Equity-linked CDs. I'll let the following Forbes headline settle that one: http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2013/02/12/equity-linked-cds-more-garbage-wall-street-wants-to-feed-you/
(c) 5-year Treasurys. As of this week, we can earn a guaranteed 1.76%. And that's only if we hold the notes to maturity (we'll be subject to significant inflation risks in the interim). http://online.wsj.com/articles/ten-year-treasury-bond-yield-hits-one-month-high-1410270155
What does that leave us with? The only alternatives involve risk.
(a) The stock market.
(b) The bond market.
(c) Real estate.
(d) Personal loans.
My take, of course, is that all of the above currently involve risks skewed to the downside.
Invest in Google over time. That's about as guaranteed as it gets.
DeleteOr buy a few stocks like insurer ORI - pays a 5% yield and has increased dividends for over 30 consecutive years.
DeleteNot guaranteed of course, but a high probability if you are diversify among 5 or 10 of these (depending on portfolio size and risk tolerance) you can easily exceed 5% overall return with very low risk. Actually in my opinion, it is safer to to do this than to buy a 5 year GIC or bond due to the inflation risk you mentioned.
TRP - Here's another I wish I'd owned this year, f'n-a, I pick losers.
ReplyDeleteI like something Howard marks of Oakmark said, paraphrasing, there can be many/few probabilities but only one outcome.
ReplyDeleteand How to see into the future:
How to be a superforecaster
Some participants in the Good Judgment Project were given advice on how to transform their knowledge about the world into a probabilistic forecast – and this training, while brief, led to a sharp improvement in forecasting performance.
The advice, a few pages in total, was summarised with the acronym CHAMP:
● Comparisons are important: use relevant comparisons as a starting point;
● Historical trends can help: look at history unless you have a strong reason to expect change;
● Average opinions: experts disagree, so find out what they think and pick a midpoint;
● Mathematical models: when model-based predictions are available, you should take them into account;
● Predictable biases exist and can be allowed for. Don’t let your hopes influence your forecasts, for example; don’t stubbornly cling to old forecasts in the face of news.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/3950604a-33bc-11e4-ba62-00144feabdc0.html#ixzz3DEhYboH9
The other is known as "CHUMP", and doesn't work well.
DeleteToo funny.
DeleteThat's one helluva article. I'll have to read through it carefully.
Delete'The Assets' on NFLX. Smart retelling of the Aldrich Ames story. An American mini-series that comes close to matching European TV.
ReplyDeleteThe ending of fossil fuels consumption is here:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gla.ac.uk/news/headline_358595_en.html
SRS - Sizable move Friday.
ReplyDeleteLVS - I thought Vegas was kicking butt, till I saw this chart. ???
ReplyDeleteWilbur Ross concerned over deflation:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gurufocus.com/news/278401/wilbur-ross-worried-about-deflation-not-inflation
CVX - Certainly feeling the pressure:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.gurufocus.com/news/278537/gas-pressure-on-investors
Munger said, His central message: Investors can reach their fullest potential only by thinking for themselves. "If you stay rational yourself," he told the crowd, "the stupidity of the world helps you."
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/articles/the-secrets-of-berkshires-success-an-interview-with-charlie-munger-1410543815
Thinking for oneself is something this board is really good at.
CP, can the CHIMP beat the CHAMP or just the CHUMP?
ReplyDeleteOn an infinite time horizon a chimp might beat the champ but the probability is near zero! :)
DeleteTRW - OMG, but it's down??? "TRW Automotive to be acquired by Germany's ZF for about $13.5 bln"
ReplyDeleteLong GOOGL at $578. Playing the potential for a trend break reversal
ReplyDeletei bought GOOGL here for a trade only because i think a lot of people are scared about the upcoming alibaba IPO and rumors that fund managers are selling their GOOGL to buy BABA. I think this week will prove to be a short term low
DeleteTOF- Still like the shippers here? BALT is the only one in it's flag still.
ReplyDeletei think so. gotta be very careful with your entry though. For BALT, for example, seems like a good entry here with a stop below $5.4ish but I think it retests $5.
Deleteso i guess the best bet would be to buy near the panic lows from a month or two ago and pray to the gods that they hold.
DeleteTREX - Time to sell I'd guess, winter coming.
ReplyDeleteThe moment everyone on Twitter and TV agrees its time to avoid the China internets is the time to go in heavy. I think this will be an excellent opportunity coming up.
ReplyDeleteDefinitely aversion toward the momentum / tech sectors today. The Dow is up and the S&P is down marginally. GM looks decent.
ReplyDeleteBTU - Ambre Coal was denied export license through imPortland?
ReplyDeleteSRE - It appears this company will be or is being allowed to export gas, though.
BTU: The coal trade is what makes me skeptical about the shippers. Is coal dead? sure seems like it. Maybe there's room for players like ADES / SYMX to help clean up the industry but it seems like governmental regulation is making coal dead across the world.
DeleteGOOGL is pretty beaten down on most time frames. Weekly still has room down though. But the "breakdown" through the trendline from the May lows seems like a good spot to be buying.
ReplyDeleteJCP is looking pretty phenomenal. It's flagging up after a big move which is a sign of strength. You could either buy a move above $11.30ish or just buy down here and sell if it falls below $10.60ish. I really like this setup.
ReplyDeleteWith these companies whose fundamentals are so shitty it really comes down to the charts in my opinion. How else can you value this potential turnaround?
DeleteGM is extremely attractive in the markets eyes right now. Compare it to TSLA or any of the high flyers. Then compare it even to F/TM. The market is attracted to it today.
ReplyDeleteZU been holding in well so far (just jinxed it). Still holding this sucker.
ReplyDeleteSold Aloca (AA) today and moved the proceeds into a Canadian Steel processor called Canam (CAM.TO) - it's the largest in North America.
ReplyDeleteAA was a good one for me, up 120% in just less than a year, but it's gotten expensive and the stock seems weak now and CAM has pulled back a lot and has a much better valuation profile. Probably AA will do well over the next few years and I can see it getting back into the $30's, but it's going to take time and I think CAM.TO has better catalysts for the short run.
The other thing that has me thinking is the US$ rise which will help Canadian manufacturers relative to the US, so another tailwind.
Yeah, I'm still pretty skiddish. BALT looks kinda good here but since coal is being punished I'm gonna stay away. Until maybe natty takes off like a rocket or crashes (natty crash =~ coal is back on the table?).
ReplyDeleteRe BTU and the shippers, I also wonder about steel production in China which drives a lot of the drybulk demand.
ReplyDeleteSeems the energy and container shipping companies have less risk now, but it is a hard market to figure out. The nice thing about NM (which I sold and have not bought back) is their CEO will allocated capital to the best opportunities across segments, so can figure this out for you.
I like NM the best as well from a fundamental standpoint and risk standpoint. They're the biggest and will weather any storm the best.
DeleteAnyone else watching AKS closely for a re-entry?
ReplyDeleteFrom SAUT today:
ReplyDelete"Shad understands that in a secular “bull market” one of the most important things to know is not to lose your entire position because stocks tend to go higher in such an environment than most investors think. Yes, you can trade around that position, but don’t lose the entire position!"
I agree with Saut. You never really know when a market will move up (or down) and in a strong bull like this, it is hard to find good entry positions.
ReplyDeleteMost of my sales over the past year have been done early. AA is a prime example. Making a lateral move probably makes sense since you have exposure to the sector but odds favor just sitting tight. I've found it pays to take profits though. Then again, the big winners I've been in over the past year (OWW, YRCW, LEJU, BALT) are all riskier stocks and usually give multiple entries.
DeleteYour probably right, but after a stock has had such a good move like AA, probably it needs to base for a while and let fundamentals catch up before the next move, whereas CAM.TO has had a 30% pullback on a couple of missed quarters, which were likely due to short term issues. A good couple of quarters should drive a good gain. They both have similar dividends and CAM.TO just had its first insider buy in a long time.
DeleteNATI - Wow, traded to low $30
ReplyDeleteAMZN - Okay, where to now?
ReplyDeleteMITK....like the suit never settled...
ReplyDeleteAUMN...classic bear flag.
ReplyDeleteI believe AUMN is carving out a coffin pattern.
DeleteI picked up a bunch of JCP and IBM today. IBM rallied about 6% in the March/April rout of small caps. Not saying that happens again but I like the valuation here and the way its trading.
ReplyDeleteSold 20% of my position in ZU today.
Most likely stocks pop at the open tomorrow since most traders got stopped out today.
Very strange. Someone was bidding ZU after hours at $36.50 despite it closing at $36.25. So I sold a bit there.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, bids across the board on my holdings are above their closing price: ZU, GOOGL, JCP and IBM was. Makes me think tomorrow we gap up
Deleteaha. looks like an upgrade after hours for ZU: https://www.analystratings.net/stocks/NYSE/ZU/?RegistrationCode=SocialMedia-direct
Deletehttp://www.streetinsider.com/Analyst+Comments/Baird+Starts+Zulily,+Inc+%28ZU%29+at+Outperform/9833023.html
DeleteDRYS upgraded by Deutsche to $5 target after hours. Deutsche is a big holder of their convertibles.
ReplyDeleteLooks like I dodges a bullet:
ReplyDeleteAA
Alcoa -1% on news of 25M depositary share offering
Alcoa (NYSE:AA) -1.1% AH after announcing a public offering of 25M depositary shares, with an underwriters option to sell an additional 3.75M shares.Alcoa plans to use the proceeds to help finance its previously announced proposed acquisition of the Firth Rixson business.
NOR - Some big moves for this one lately.
DeleteAre you guys ready for round # 2? It's coming. April gave us a chance at making some big money. This alibaba ipo is gonna be an excellent opp to scoop up beaten down growth stocks
ReplyDeleteYeah, I was loading up on those all day.
DeleteThat is an interesting idea and could work out well. There could be cross-currents like mutual fund year end selling and the geo-political stuff, but it makes sense that a lot of the growth guys have sold to buy alibaba, then will bounce when it is done.
DeleteCP, what did you buy?
Nothing, was just kidding. Coulda bought something, just not very impressed by the action lately, 12 point days on the SPX rattle me..
DeleteBXE - So when does the flood of downgrades begin in prep for the next down leg?
ReplyDelete2nd- I'm really liking the "Asset". Good call.
ReplyDeletehere are some good stats on the bigger cap momo names:
ReplyDeleteSymbol Revenue Growth
TWTR 67.00%
FEYE 46.70%
ZU 46.20%
YELP 45.40%
NOW 38.80%
Z 35.60%
FB 34.40%
LNKD 33.40%
SPLK 33.20%
TRIP 25.60%
NFLX 24.60%
CRM 24.00%
PCLN 22.00%
WDAY 21.40%
AMZN 20.20%
GOOG 18.30%
GMCR 12.50%
Symbol P/S
AMZN 1.65
ZU 3.71
GMCR 4.57
NFLX 4.99
GOOG 5.81
CRM 6.64
PCLN 7.09
TRIP 10.97
FEYE 11.5
LNKD 11.71
NOW 12.78
YELP 14.72
Z 15.56
SPLK 15.58
FB 15.83
WDAY 20.65
TWTR 22.03
Symbol P/E
GOOG 21.68
PCLN 21.98
GMCR 34.49
TRIP 44.92
FB 46.04
LNKD 111.07
CRM 112.88
NFLX 118.28
ZU 172.62
Z 330.63
TWTR 493.8
YELP 851.33
SPLK 2782
FEYE -15.43
WDAY -203.83
NOW -737.25
AMZN -3238.9
AMZN - This one seems good, but I don't know if it's grossly overpriced, neg P/E figures aren't easy for me to comprehend.
DeleteFEYE - This was another I thought seemed interesting although now I forgot why exactly.
YHOO - Have you guys noticed this one shooting up, it's their BABA stake, huh?
ReplyDeleteCramer thinks YHOO buys out YELP with proceeds.
GOOGL - Nice call TOF, I thought the ticker was GOOG though?
ReplyDeleteZNGA - Looks like $2.93 is today's price to beat, are we interested in this one anymore?
ReplyDeleteMy broker has it as underperform
DeleteFunny I was looking at that one too. I think I like it but then again I play chess with friends so I know the brand a little too well
DeleteRES - I'm thinking of this one, or ORI, unless Mark has some ideas?
ReplyDeleteThe transformation is complete! I now have all momentum names yikes. Holding yelp zu googl and jcp. I guess the latter two aren't but my weightings are skewed toward zu and yelp. I think both can go 40% higher from here to the end of the year
ReplyDeleteI am fully aware of the risks with these but I think this wipe out was completely baba induced. I think there's a chance due to the 3 day settlement rule the selloff yesterday was mechanical in nature, clearing the way for funds to buy baba on Friday. Could be wrong but I'm hoping to turn a really good year into a great one
DeleteI have a stink bid on YELP in case you're wrong, so you can rest easy now knowing it won't happen.
Deletehaha. i sold the JCP and rolled it all into YELP/ZU. Now 50/50 on both. Hat tip to the market gods right now.
DeleteAlso sold GOOGL
DeleteI had a fairly difficult time choosing amongst these high flyers but ZU and YELP stand out for a few reasons:
Delete(1) Growth
(2) Positive EPS
(3) Huge untapped potential
(4) What I view as higher probability of going up now
ZU and YELP both have estimated growth rates of 45%+ for next year. Only 4 stocks do in this list:
TWTR
FEYE
ZU
YELP
I actually think a basket of all 4 of them works over time but I think ZU and YELP have the highest odds of rallying the hardest in the near term. I think I've changed my view on TWTR. I think the addition of a search function to their site is a game changer. I almost bought that one but I think the market cap of YELP/ZU is low enough to allow for more gains in the near term but I'm probably wrong because TWTR has such a huge user base
Oh and FEYE I think will ultimately be a huge winner but probably from a lower level first or after a huge consolidation period. Everything I read about them suggests to me that they are the best in this space but they aren't even close to making a profit yet.
DeleteORI - Ignoring the whoofing and hyperventilation from the bear camp, started a position. @ $14.84
ReplyDeleteUNG - Climbed right back up right away.
ReplyDeleteEPI - $22.23 looks like support?
ReplyDeleteGE - Proof of large cap rotation.....
ReplyDeleteOn these momentum stocks I think its important to think of them in the context of where these stocks traded this year. they went through hell in march to may. then they rallied up the wall of worry. they have since taken two nose dives: one in july that was long enough to shake a good deal of people out and one yesterday that was really sharp and short and probably stopped out a good deal of traders. all of these in my opinion are attempts to shake weak hands from these stocks. the less weak hands there are the stronger these stocks get. then momentum traders hop on and buy em.
ReplyDeleteI'm gonna say this was all ahead and in preparation for the BABA IPO? Cramer mentioned this.
DeleteGE - CNG in a box, eh?
ReplyDeleteCLNE - Even this one has lifted, all hope is not lost? Proof expectations of the audience are always taken into account?
ReplyDeleteIt's only Tuesday, so there are three and a half days remaining to sell prior to Friday's close.
DeleteEWZ - Notice the parallel channel and the test/establishment of the lower trend line, how the recent dip defined a parallel channel...
ReplyDeleteThat gap up from March could be called a breakaway gap I think, remember all the bearish sentiment weighing at the time? This channel looks like the SPX channel, similar attributes.
DeleteCheck out the recent volume, amazonian jungle wilderness volume.
DeleteEWS - Could be a screaming buy, there's a lot of wealth in Singapore these days.
ReplyDeleteGOOG - Those longs have it way too easy man, only had to endure a single down day outside the flag. F'n pusses! :)
ReplyDeletehaha so true.
DeleteCORN - Bottomed yet?
ReplyDeleteSDS - Throw some of this in the buckboard?
ReplyDeleteI actually cleared out of a bunch of YELP around $76.3-76.4 that I was buying $1 lower and am trying to re allocate it back in and into a few other things. Moving in and out and around these suckers probably all day. Trying to think about how to allocate this all out. I keep coming back to LNKD for the same reason I was 5 months ago: its a monopoly. There's zero competition out there for them. FB won't ever be able to encroach on their territory and Google failed in their attempt to do so
ReplyDeleteGood luck. Be interesting to see how this works out for you.
DeleteNeutral, $250
DeleteAside - WIX.com is buy, $27 target
I ended up buying more ZU and LNKD at $37 and $211.
DeleteORI - OMG, it's green! I mean I bought this while red and it actually turned green! WTF, I'm doin' a dance over here!
ReplyDeleteUNG - It must be snowing somewhere in NA, that must be it.....
ReplyDeletePCLN - ? "August mobile minutes up 39% and mobile users up 40% y/y; mobile minutes stable at 66% of total US internet minutes. FB US mobile minutes up 51% y/y and total minutes up 35% y/y. Time share down slightly to 17.7%, but up from 15.6% last year. Priceline strongest growth in travel with mobile minutes up 87% y/y."
ReplyDeleteThis feels like a fake-out day ahead of FED minutes.
ReplyDeleteKWK - Here come 'ol flat top, movin' up slowly......
ReplyDeleteSU - The oil sands seem to be chugging along just fine, huh?
ReplyDeleteI'm thinking of buying some more. Would have like to have seen a bigger pullback, and it's hard to buy now considering where they were not long ago.
DeleteBut, they've made a lot of investments and will have huge cash flows coming in over the next few years, so this may be the best we get. My average cost now is around $22.
MET - TBTF regulatory target? Good one huh, pointing fingers in another direction while letting the real offenders off the hook.
ReplyDeleteC - 3B shares and 7B people on Earth, C represents $22 or so for every one of them.
I have to be worth more that $22?!
DeleteMET is a crock, but they say they will have insurance rules for AIG, PRU and MET. Insurance companies act as stabilizers in financial crises because of their long duration assets and liabilities and are not pro-cyclical like banks.
DeleteI mean declaring MET a TBTF is a crock. MEt itself is fine.
Delete"Insurance companies act as stabilizers in financial crises because of their long duration assets and liabilities and are not pro-cyclical like banks."
DeleteAIG didn't get that memo!
Haha, actually, their insurance business was good - it was the hedge fund they ran on top of everything that screwed things up.
DeleteLong miners.
ReplyDeleteI'll provide a debrief, or a postmortem, as the case may be later in the week.
Now that is the true balls of steel trade. I think you could get one last brief rally and then they will get flushed really hard. That was the bubble of all bubbles in my opinion, the gold trade.
DeleteGolden eggs trade! :)
DeleteSU - Wonder if this has been impacting BXE.... "04-Sep-14 06:20PM Suncor Energy to Sell Cardium-Focused Wilson Creek Assets Zacks"
ReplyDeleteYPF - This one's flying right, brotha!
ReplyDeleteThe North American Gas Forum, happening September 28-30 in Washington D.C. will focus on supply-demand dynamics in the North American and global gas markets and address many of the key issues that are a priority for leaders in the industry. A first-class speaker line-up with 45+ speakers and 7 US Congressmen are some of the highlights of the forum. For more information please visit http://energy-dialogues.com/nagf or contact the organizer.
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Unstoppable, must really be going to $20....
ReplyDeleteChina Economic Watch: The PBoC injects RMB500bn to five major banks
ReplyDeleteWHR - Going to $200 ?
GRT - $2B, or $4B? Is there some left on table, I get $2 on my napkin?
ReplyDeleteGet sloppy dunk and shave 'em dry.....
ReplyDeletehttp://www.philxmilstein.com/probe/tracks/ShaveEmDry/BessieJackson.mp3
Good Lord have you guys seen the move in X after hours, on top of the 70% or so move since July?
ReplyDeleteHoly crap, up almost 10% today. $4 increase was over $46. Must be some good news, certainly not inflation being high
DeleteIs it a manufacturing renaissance in the US due to low energy costs, all this stuff gonna go nuts?
Looks like SNE still struggling:
ReplyDeleteSony warns of $2.2B net loss
Sony (NYSE:SNE) is warning of a ¥230B ($2.2B) net loss for its current fiscal year, compared with its previous forecast for a ¥50B loss, after being hit with a ¥180B ($1.7B) impairment charge in its mobile communications segment.In addition, the Japanese electronics maker says it will also not pay a dividend this business year.The announcement marks the sixth downward revision under CEO Kazuo Hirai, who promised to revive the firm's troubled electronics division when appointed to the post in 2012.
They need new products and ideas.
DeleteOcean shippers beginning "new era Of prosperity," Deutsche Bank says
ReplyDeleteOcean shipping of dry bulk commodities and oil will nearly double earnings capacity during the next several years while the smaller container ship industry will tread water, Deutsche Bank says.The firm believes the industry is "on the cusp of entering a new era of prosperity," driven by improved supply/demand dynamics, increased fleet utilization and abundant capital to fund profitable growth.On average, DB forecasts a near doubling of earnings power across its coverage universe by 2016 vs. 2013, led by shippers in the Dry Bulk and Oil trades.Initiated with Buy ratings: TNK +9.8%, CPLP +2.5%, DSX +2.8%, DRYS +5.5%, DLNG +2.4%, NNA +2.1%, SALT +0.8%, SSW +1.3%, GASS +3.3%.Started at Hold: TK +1.2%, NMM +0.3%, FRO +3.3%, TGH -0.6%.
The reasoning provided is comprehensive and in-depth, these facts say all we need to know!
DeleteFed Day, so I'm going golfing this afternoon and avoiding the whole overhyping of it all.
ReplyDeleteI really don't think in they do or don't remove "considerable period" from the Fed Minutes matters 1 bit and don't want to listed to it all day. Reality is the economy is getting better, so the fed will be reducing stimulus and raising rates over time. As long as this is done at a reasonable pace and things don't get out of control, stocks will continue upwards. If it gets out of control (eg. fast inflation growth), I would be worried.
There's no inflation, just announced this morning. I guess the FED doesn't have to change this statement but want to see the reaction if they do it could be a buying the dip opportunity.
DeleteIts really quite pathetic. The media has nothing else to cover than "considerable period"?
DeleteCLNE - These guys are gonna fuel natty trucks, right? I guess TA is going to be involved in fueling these trucks as well?
ReplyDeleteBXE - Now she's moving a little (unidirectional).
ReplyDeleteI still have GOOGL in my in laws account. I also picked up FSLR for them today at $71. FSLR has quite the air pocket if it can get up into the high 70's.
ReplyDeleteThey're also holding ZU and JCP.
Good listen: hour long interview between Laszlo Birinyi & Barry Ritholtz:
ReplyDeletehttp://media.bloomberg.com/bb/avfile/Masters_in_Business/vJ1yeLf4tZoU.mp3
its actually only 35 minutes or so...
DeleteNever mind...it is actually over an hour. Just broken up in segments.
DeletePart of the reason I've gotten much more aggressive the past 2 days is the the volume in the Russell 2000 futures (/TF), which has been very high...over 200k per day the past 3 days. The prior times it hit this high:
ReplyDelete8/1/14
3/13/14
2/3/14
6/20/13
4/15/13
6/11/12
All of these days resulted in at least decent rallies afterward. The only one that wasn't a substantial intermediate term bottom was 3/13/14 but even that one resulted in a decent week long rally. It's my guess that we will see the Russell 2000 break out to new highs by the end of the year and ultimately result in a short squeeze 10% higher. It's universally accepted that the small caps are a problem and a sign that things are weak. How many traders do you think are pressing shorts on small caps?
Maybe we get a quick spurt lower to really suck in the shorts but my guess is that lasts all of a few days.
SHLD - Another JCP kind of play?
ReplyDeleteBXE - Okay, so wondering how much of BXE does PKX own, anyway?
ReplyDeleteThe channel is pretty well defined so once we drop under this level it's gonna drop like a stone from there.
DeleteOh my God Oh my God! They said considerable time!!!!
ReplyDeleteI don't see any really big moves yet...
DeleteI'm just kidding. People need to take a walk outside and breath some fresh air...maybe hug a loved one.
DeleteI wonder how many bears will be covering today.
Oh I get it, that's what happens when people think they can trade off news that may or mostly may not have some impact.
DeleteKB - Apparently there's been drama recently:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/biz/2014/09/488_164751.html
Looks like gold turned down, dollar shot up.
ReplyDeleteHigher dollar and lower energy is same as a wage increase, not sure it creates more employment...
DeleteGood numbers out of X yesterday, then Nuecor this morning, and now Steel Dynamics after hours today - seems like the steel market is rocking.
ReplyDeleteYeah man. Phenomenal. Just phenomenal. I was looking closely at AKS down around $9. Had all of a day to act on that one.
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