I've finished constructing a portfolio for the next few weeks:
(a) 70% TIPS (via TIP and FINPX, plus a little fuel-injected PRRDX to make it purr if/when bonds take off).
(b) 12% Precious Metals (via GDX, GDXJ, RYPMX).
(c) 3% HDGE.
(c) 15% cash for discretionary trades.
HDGE has been on board for some time. All other positions opened within the past 48 hours.
Nice hold on hdge
ReplyDeleteI picked up googl after hours at its closing price, hoping to play a bounce at open tmrw
To be honest, I haven't held HDGE continuously. I've jumped out a few times, only to jump right back in after coming to my senses.
ReplyDelete2nd,
ReplyDeleteInteresting purchases. Are you buying the TIPS because you are expecting inflation to tick up and you'll make gains on the bonds or is it more just a safety play to get some inflation protected yield?
Stock futures up this morning. Will be interesting to see if it is just a sellable bounce or if the short trem bottom is in. I would be surprised if we don't pullback from the higher open before the market decides what it is really going to do.
ReplyDeleteNat gas storage is below the average minimum of the last 5 years. There were 7 weeks of usual injection time, before the demand should start picking up, but it appears we will go into winter without having fully rebuilt supply after last winter's extreme cold. The weather is always key with nat gas, but looks promising for the nat gas producers like BXE (65% nat gas).
ReplyDeleteI picked up ugaz this morning as it was down again. I think it rallies into the winter. The speculative short position is sky high which is usually a great contrarian signal
DeleteBXE - Is it safe to say this one has rolled over for an "Extended Period"?
ReplyDeleteHousing sales moving up?
ReplyDeleteI sold my GOOGL for breakeven.
ReplyDeleteBy every metric the small caps and these high growth stocks are oversold and the market in general is due for a bounce. but i just remember back in 2008 when shit got so oversold and never bounced. We’re not in that kind of market but the end of QE has to play a role on investor sentiment at some point here soon is my thinking.
I agree with this, might be wrong but even falling energy hasn't buoyed the market and even trouble in the middle east hasn't put a floor under energy.
Delete6 year high for home sales - FED gonna raise rates?
I'm not expecting a collapse or anything those permabear folk like to fear monger about but shit why couldn't we get a 15% air pocket here soon? A large swath of the market has purchased every dip with the full faith in the Fed as their backstop. Maybe we just roll right on through but I'd prefer to keep risk lower for the time being until charts seem to be on a firmer footing. Could be as soon as the next few days.
DeleteCP - I highly doubt they raise rates anytime soon and even if they do it will be to such a low level it won't matter. The bigger issue in my opinion is the dollar. If that rallies a lot more then stocks should run into some headwinds for sure.
DeleteKCAP - You guys familiar with this one?
ReplyDeleteBelow average storage 5 yrs, that is pretty bullish I'd think... Wonder why this is below the ave, consumption is up maybe?
ReplyDeleteMomentum stocks (GOOGL ZU YELP LNKD) looking strong today. Good sign.
ReplyDeleteLooks like the solar space and YELP got juiced by buyout rumors. Lets see how long that lasts...
DeleteI think that plus last winter drew down supplies quite a bit and that hasn't been worked off.
ReplyDeleteSo why does my computer send more data than it receives? Some spyware is running in background or a screwed up script no doubt but no wat to know which application is sending the data (thanks MSFT!)
ReplyDeletehttp://img.izismile.com/img/img7/20140109/640/funny_picdump_606_640_51.jpg
ReplyDeleteLOL, yeah... "100 MPG" vs 28 MPG has to be factored in.
DeleteBanana in your pants or a happy iphone? :)
ReplyDeleteBID - Catching a bid?
ReplyDeleteLots of things are. I'm tempted to reload the SPXS position but would wait for a 78+ RSI_EMA reading on the hourly chart for the S&P futures before doing so.
DeleteThis all could just be noise though and the market could be on its way to much higher prices into year end.
Yeah, every time I jump in on something I get sliced up. :(
DeleteThus we don't have enough storage capacity and production is incapable of replenishing current storage volume.
ReplyDeleteSLCA - Zoom....
ReplyDeleteBXE - $6.20-$6.30, normal 0.10 swing from $0.20 drop and roll back up $0.10 then hold for normal $0.10 daily loss.
ReplyDeleteWell the rig count is really low right now but my understanding is they just shifted rigs from nat gas to oil and can shift back fairly quickly. obviously a huge cold blast that burns off inventory quickly, coupled with a low rig count, would result in a massive price spike like last year. It should then result in a move up in production to take advantage of higher prices. I'd prefer to err on the side of bullish when it comes to nat gas given how far down prices are. Lots of people are saying this time is different with respect to nat gas supplies underground but that's usually wrong.
ReplyDeleteMAT - Wow, such low expectation.
ReplyDeleteFLWS - Bull flag forming for next leg up?
ReplyDeleteSHLD - Christmas in September?
ReplyDeleteMAT - Going to $25
SPXS - This looks like support ($24)
ReplyDeleteI'm having a tough time going after that with a really strong day in the momentum stocks...but then again, they're all up 1% which isn't really that strong. Probably the right trade when thinking about what would frustrate the most amount of traders. It's either straight up all day today or a complete reversal of these intraday gains yet not breaking down below yesterday's support. It's a tossup.
DeleteSure seem like it doesn't take much to get selling off to a start but volume on up days isn't as large as down days aside from the 2019 high, that day was big volume which makes me think it was a longer term top.
ReplyDeleteThus I'll be shorting up there this time regardless if I can convince you guys to join. :)
Something else I'm thinking of is tax loss selling, surely there will be some of that for these beaten down stocks I've been struggling with.
ReplyDeleteBull flag in natty gas intraday...here's to a nice cushion heading into the report tomorrow.
ReplyDeletedow up 114 pts, day after dropping like a ton of bricks. Uh huh... Buy energy, upgrades for energy sector across the board and higher interest rates are just around the corner, buy, buy, buy.
ReplyDeleteOkay, so where was the SPX on the highest volume day of this year?
BBBY - "No compelling reason to buy this stock unless the company devises a way to compete online."
ReplyDeletetell that to the people buying 23% ago.
DeleteShort covering?
DeleteCVT - Hiring 400 employees for new Tysons Corner office.
ReplyDeleteOil sure does seem to have hit a bottom. If it rallies from here what plays do you guys think work the best, given how beaten down some of them got?
ReplyDeleteATHL was upgraded by BACML and they began covering WLL with a nice gain forecast from here.
DeleteRRC is pretty beat up here as well.
DeleteBTU - Huge volume lately.
ReplyDeleteFeels like a dirt track race with Tony Stewart
Copper - Good surface material for anti-staff resistance control
ReplyDeleteSBNY - Keeps testing lower trend line, what are the chances it breaks down through as our government continues cutting programs?
ReplyDeleteGPRO - You guys been watching this? Just looked and WOW, it seems to be tearing.
"Look at that Large Speculator Net Open Interest chart...largest short position in 2 years. "
ReplyDeleteI think those guys are the commercial banks, same ones who are upgrading energy stocks but don't they need to cover this short at some point, why would they upgrade something their short?
ZGNX - Screw that, I need some black market heroine.
ReplyDeleteGuys if coal is being completely sh*t upon by Obama (see for further evidence: http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/09/24/world/asia/obama-at-un-climate-summit-calls-for-vast-international-effort.html?_r=0&referrer=) and nat gas export terminals being set up, what is going to prevent a substantial price increase for nat gas over time? outside of swing trades in leveraged ETFs i'm assuming the plays like BXE would work best in the long run...after they find some sort of support, right?
ReplyDeleteWe don't know how much natty production can expand I guess and of course with coal buried in it's coffin then natty consumption is gonna increase so something connected to this picture that doesn't decay or new more expensive contract rolled forward has to be purchased with each tick up and down should do pretty well I think.
DeleteLook what happened to PM producers as PMs rallied they were dying on the vine, will that happen to natty producers?
Maybe the companies that convert this commodity to a custom product will kick butt?
this move lower in the shippers has to be related to coal no?
DeleteYep, I think so. Seems BDI stalled and the mice deserted ship.
DeleteHDSN - Like that move? This company is a global warming gas play (freon recycling).
ReplyDeleteMEOH - Oh look, this one isn't in a swan dive quite like ORI and BXE, imagine that.
ReplyDeleteDamn, BALT is off almost 50% here now.
ReplyDelete...and yes, it has to be related to coal.
DeleteDon't sell now, TT loves bulk shipping it's gonna shoot the moon so give it a chance man, coal will be in huge demand once global governments pass global warming gas legislation. And, don't buy freon recyclers either.
DeleteWest Virginia mountain property for sail.
ReplyDeleteCOAL...I'm pretty sure I've never seen anything like this before...oh yeah! Natty!!
DeleteI actually know someone who died last year while waiting for her WV home to sell.
DeleteAnd crude is now back over $92.50 so it's party time.
DeleteORI - Could be a tweezer bottom but I've seen plenty of those fail spectacularly.
ReplyDeleteAmazing SRS is green with that jump in new home sales?
ReplyDeleteIs one indicator of a strong stock in uptrend a great big red bar at end of session?
ReplyDeleteCheck your AH bids, are they higher than close?
ReplyDeleteCLMT - Hammer time, this one converts hydrocarbons to useful products but with our glorious global economy booming it might feel a little pressure despite it's feed stock is gushing from the Oklahoma hub?
ReplyDeleteVLO - Hammer
ALDW - Hammer
TSO - Hammer
ATHL - Mean and green
So I guess today's one day wonder might've been staged around the POTUS' pep rally?
China says they're gonna look for a new central bank head (was this the guy who recently said everything's cool thus no more stimulus coming?)
ReplyDeleteEPD - May have slipped off the edge, is this rotation into something similar that's beat up?
ReplyDeleteOXY - Added to US1 list, PXD removed.
ReplyDeleteSTO - Add this one to the producers list?
ReplyDeleteWNS - India play?
ReplyDeleteBKJ - Wild ride on this one, LOL
ReplyDeletePCG - How much you wanna bet this one doesn't pass low gas prices along to customers? Can they do that? Or any of the utilities, for that matter.
ReplyDelete"Rates are expected to increase" Gold price in various currencies:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.goldpriceoz.com/gold-price-china/
CP- JB might not ever be able to sell his house. Water issues.
ReplyDeleteI shorted aapl after hours at 101.47. I think this bent phone issue is a big deal. A friend of mine that gets everything apple had to return his
ReplyDeleteTOF,
ReplyDeletere energy stocks, even after the current pullback, they have had mostly a good year and the obvious Canadian oil-levered large caps like CNQ and SU are up 30% and 20% YTD and really haven't pulled back that much. Could be that's all we get as they were in long basing patterns for 2 years from mid-2011 to mid-2013. BXE is also up almost 10%.
Most energy companies are cheap now, assuming oil holds and I would be looking at Canadian smallcaps for leverage. The only US energy company I have JONE. It's up 26% and is still quite cheap and has good acreage and is doing well and could be a good mover - the knock against it is that it is pretty tightly held and doesn't get a whole lot of volume. Generally speaking though, I don't pay a whole lot of attention to the US energy stocks.
The other thing about nat gas is it seems like a lot of US electricity producers have moved from coal to nat gas to cut emmissions. This is a steady source of demand and could also be contributing to the less than full nat gas storage. The interesting thing is this demand will continue and even increase as we move into winter. I'm not sure how much higher this source of demand will be compared to last year, but it will be there.
ReplyDeleteYep on that, and D intends to export LNG from Chesapeake Bay.
DeleteI also am finding some interesting stocks to buy over the next little while. Even with the near alltime high major markets, there are stocks out there at 2 year lows.
ReplyDeleteMore good negative stories on the offshore drillers:
ReplyDeleteStill too early to buy offshore drillers, Wells Fargo says
Offshore drillers continue their dramatic recent slide, as rigs go idle and analysts cut their ratings, and Wells Fargo piles on with a new report explaining why it’s still too early to buy into the group.The firm sees offshore spending facing a structural slowdown, the offshore rig count set for anemic growth through 2015, further downside risk In offshore rig utilization and dayrates, and OSV utilization and rates likely to face downward pressure.Wells initiates coverage on Transocean (RIG -2.9%), Seadrill (SDRL -1.9%) and Diamond Offshore (DO -2.5%) at Underperform, while Noble Corp. (NE -2.5%), Rowan (RDC -0.5%), Ensco (ESV -1.9%), Atwood Oceanics (ATW -1%) and Pacific Drilling (PACD -3%) are started at Market Perform.
TDW/CKH/HELI - All three have high institutional ownership?
DeleteSPW - Pollution abatement
ReplyDeleteMTOR - Just paid off 3yrs of pension obligations?
Mark - Sadness. That's the first thing I thought of when I saw those homes going up and used to be a prehistoric swap there ya know? I'd try to quietly drill my own water well.
ReplyDeleteswamp
Delete$3B tax revenue if marijuana was legalized in all states, enough for Pentagon to purchase qty. 3, F-22 Raptors.
ReplyDeleteI like the AAPL short. Guess who I don't like?
ReplyDeleteKim Kardashian?
DeleteI have 10 followers now.
ReplyDeleteMother Goose! :)
Deletehttp://www.playbuzz.com/gregs/at-what-age-will-you-die
ReplyDeleteI GOT 91!!!
CALM - Holy canoli
ReplyDeleteI don't think it's a coincidence the market is softening as the solar strengthens. Question is where does the dollar move next? Does it spike like the nat has spike last year? If so I think we see a mini crash. Otherwise I'm not sure
ReplyDeleteIf solar strengthens, what does that have to do with anything else, safe haven?
Deletehaha. i meant dollar strengthens. sorry.
Deletemini crash is playing out. only position i have now is short AAPL.
Yes I agree, dollar strengthens b/c of a rush to the dollar and also now North America isn't importing as much energy.
DeleteSolar - Funny thing, I don't see any solar on BACML's US1 list. Pretty strange, huh?
ReplyDeleteBABA - Nicely green. I heard an analyst say it's fully priced.
ReplyDeleteMDT - $75 target
ReplyDeleteOUTR - Gap down gonna close so soon?
ReplyDelete"More SMID cap US equity market "troops" have abandoned the large and mega cap "generals" as the S&P 400 MidCap Index joins the Russell 2000 with a relative breakdown vs. the S&P 500."
ReplyDeleteSOL - Gonna buy this?
ReplyDeleteDown just 20pts, eh? :)
ReplyDelete"Canadian energy patch ripe for activism." I seem to recall this same phrase used as PM miners were crashing.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-09-25/orange-capital-says-canada-energy-patch-ripe-for-activism.html?cmpid=yhoo
SVM - Another Canadian company suffering a long slow painful death.
ReplyDeletePFG - Wonder if this one soon rolls over too?
ReplyDeleteOne way to combat global warming is to stymy the global economy, right?
ReplyDeletePEP - Wow man, quite a chart. Proof sometimes simple stuff is the way to go?
ReplyDeleteSure felt like we struggled all summer to remain afloat, didn't it?
ReplyDeleteBXE - Now down 24% on this position. Such a level is unrecoverable, right?
ReplyDeleteI'm still holding and thinking of adding to it as it gets cheaper here, but haven't done anything yet. But I'm the type of investor who buys more as things get cheaper, not the other way.
DeleteThis guy is still holding (read the comments - he has some insight):
http://reminiscencesofastockblogger.com/2014/09/20/week-168-cutting-my-gains/#more-5244
More comments from the Canadian fund managers:
http://www.stockchase.com/company/find
Yeah, hopefully this one isn't gonna go to zero and I'm planning to add as well if I don't find something more attractive. Just don't want to add here and then have another 25% drop, that would be terrible and just my kind of luck.
DeleteSo I need to see a turn around before I can add, like a meaningful event that brings investors.
Sure looks like a double top for AAPL in hindsight. I really think this iPhone 6 Plus bending thing is a big deal but I could be wrong. No way in hell this happens with Jobs or if it does he puts the kibosh on it immediately and fires anyone associated with it. Ruthless but that's the right way to handle it. Last time AAPL took a nose dive to $80 from these levels in Sept 2012, the market dropped close to 10%. Wouldn't be surprised to see the same thing happen.
ReplyDeleteTrying to sell my holding in Spanish Utility Iberdrola - IBDRY. This is where these thin OTC stocks can be a pain.
ReplyDeleteHad lunch with an investor friend and we both agreed we should be far away from utility stocks due to extremely high valuations supported only by yield in a rising rate environment. He then asked if I was still holding IBDRY and I said that it was different because it was European and cheap. But I did some more thinking afterwards and while it is marginally cheaper than most utilities, it is not meaningfully cheaper as it was when I bought, so decided to sell instead of fighting the interest rate headwinds.
Was a good stock for me, up 80% since I bought in late 2012 and early 2013.
I am looking to move this money into stocks which do better with the economy and rising rates like energy, consumer and financial stocks.
Got the sale done, but had to drop the price a nickel - oh well.
DeleteI've never had a gain like that on anything except real estate a long time ago.
DeleteFED imposed financial austerity for the individual states?
ReplyDeletehttp://wallstreetonparade.com/2014/09/the-fed-just-imposed-financial-austerity-on-the-states/
RUT 1000 is one of the places to be?
"The Federal regulators adopted a new rule that requires the country’s largest banks – those with $250 billion or more in total assets – to hold an increased level of newly defined “high quality liquid assets” (HQLA) in order to meet a potential run on the bank during a credit crisis. In addition to U.S. Treasury securities and other instruments backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government (agency debt), the regulators have included some dubious instruments while shunning others with a higher safety profile.
Bizarrely, the Fed and its regulatory siblings included investment grade corporate bonds, the majority of which do not trade on an exchange, and more stunningly, stocks in the Russell 1000, as meeting the definition of high quality liquid assets, while excluding all municipal bonds – even general obligation municipal bonds from states with a far higher credit standing and safety profile than BBB-rated corporate bonds."
Shorting into the hole is actually working, wish I coulda heard the reasoning.
ReplyDeleteI've had a wild day today so far. I held my UGAZ position overnight and got spooked out and sold at a measly 1.5% gain (vs 8% at one point yesterday). Obviously the report ripped natty higher. I decided it was wrong to get scared out and so I bought back at $14.04. This is harder to hold than TZA by a long shot.
ReplyDeleteBB - I think the economy is improving as well. I'm still seeing lots of traders buying dips because they've been conditioned to do so. Wouldn't surprise me to see us go through a bigger dip than people expect because of this factor.
ReplyDeleteThis could well be the dip that turns into a correction - the time of year would be appropriate.
DeleteI think the best strategy is just to buy individual stocks over time as the market goes down. Trying to bottom tick these declines is pretty much impossible, so I just like to add into declines.
I'm really not concerned that we may be hitting another 2008 type decline (which may be a bad thing!), so buying into these 3% or 5% or even 10% - 15% declines has worked well for me over time.
Yeah I agree. THe only caveat is this end of QE and the impact it has on traders' sentiment. I think a lot of people are brushing it off but it wouldn't shock me to see a bigger drop.
DeleteThen again, most of the stocks in the momentum group that I follow have continued to hold in ok so until they take out support I would err on the side of this being another shallow dip.
CP,
ReplyDeleteNot sure how large your BXE position is, but I tend to keep indivdual commodity stock sizes lower than other types. Commodity businesses have more variables in their business and can have a lot worse things happen (like a mine collapse or pipeline burst) than say AAPL with their phones bending. So I tend to own more, smaller positions in commodity stocks to offset the single company risk.
Uncomfortably larger than it should be, unfortunately. Was adding to the position with the intent of trading my way out when the bottom fell out. Same thing nearly happened with ORI but I took the loss to avoid another example of the same situation.
DeleteJPM - Here's my argument for owning banks like JPM, the system is rigged but my concern is shareholders aren't the beneficiaries of these type of ethics, insiders and their families are:
ReplyDeletehttp://wallstreetonparade.com/2014/06/profiteering-on-banker-deaths-regulator-says-public-has-no-right-to-details/
CP,
ReplyDeleteI'm pretty confident that if you buy NWLI today at $244 and hold it for 2 or 3 years, you'll get around an 80% return. Of course anything can happen, but it is my 2nd largest holding showing my conviction.
Of all the stocks I sold this year, they were up an average of 76%. My current holdings are up an average of 50% from my purchase price. It's tougher now because prices are higher than they were a couple of years ago, but generally I generally buy stocks with the expectation of a 50% or 100% or higher move. It usually just takes a year or 3 or more.
I could see myself maybe letting go of BXE and placing that with NWLI perhaps, would that be a reasonable approach?
DeleteI figure the short signal was confirmed at $6.90, this is when I should have exited and sat on the sidelines until the storm passed.
DeleteNM- Wow, there goes a years worth of gains and off 50% from highs.
ReplyDeletegotta be the coal right? just nuts. i'm so glad i capitulated a couple of weeks ago at a 5-7% loss. Crazy how fast some stuff unwinds.
DeleteThe question is: will BALT management have the indubious honor of bankrupting GNK and BALT as well? That would be nuts.
Ya know what really is frustrating is when I exit something and take my loss it just sits there hovering around my sell price till I jump back in then it takes off to the downside.
DeleteNow off 30 points, I could feel this shit storm building due to the rectio on each unbelievable new high and this last one the volume was huge. Hello SPX 1904?
ReplyDelete"The S&P 500 is at risk to break below the 50dma (now 1976.4). Next support is 1955.5-1942.7, then 1904.8-1896.8. Focus Charts: 90-day breakouts: DRI, DD, LB, PAYX and PG; 90-day breakdowns: CCG, CFX, CPRT, ABCO and AUY.
If this Apple hardware issue unravels it could add some more pressure to the downside. The upside is if the dollar stops its rapid rise.
DeleteI always have to remind myself when I get something wrong that it's not some cardinal sin to be wrong on a trade / idea. We're just human. Pick yourself up, dust yourself off, and move on to the next one.
ReplyDeletePerhaps I should short here considering tonight when mom and pop see what happened they'll throw in the towel first thing tomorrow morning?
ReplyDeleteI think I'm gonna just exit and let it fall without me.
SHLD..intersting level.
ReplyDeleteI'd find $0 to be a very interesting price for that POS company!
DeleteTOF - We're talking Sears, man. I stopped shopping there when once I went thought the trouble of driving there and only had my Visa card they wouldn't accept so I left empty handed and never returned b/c on my way home I found what I needed at WMT.
DeleteOh BTW, WMT has free checking for most any member of the peanut gallery and accept multiple forms of payment.
TSN - China central bank should buy this (price is not an issue, the long term approach only a government can afford) one like they did with Smithfield.
ReplyDeleteMITK is off 50% in about 2 weeks and it's RSI14 is 40 still. Yikes.
ReplyDeleteDont look now but the low for the RUT was 1107.51. It bottomed at 1107.31 on 8/1/14. Higher lows continue to be in place.
ReplyDeleteI bought a little TNA at $65.49 and again at $65.2 just in case this low holds for a few days at least.
DeleteDunno but the RUT may be stronger due to the reason and link I posted above?
DeleteRe the shippers, I think it is a combination of lower demand due to things like lower coal and other steel inputs in China, but also I wonder if too much supply is coming on as most of the shippers seem to be adding boats at a good clip and ship scrapage rates seem to be decreasing.
ReplyDeleteI think we need to wait and see where it shakes out before getting back in.
And I think I like the disgust building in the offshorre drillers now more than the shippers. They seem further along in the giving up process.
DeleteJust noticed Shanghai Composite is up 15% since the end of July (I still have a small position in SORL and it is my best stock today and I was trying to find out why).
ReplyDeleteThat is quite a move. Wonder if it means anything?
Decided to buy a little here and added to my position in airplane leasing company FLY.
ReplyDeleteI have held since 2010 and it's done OK, but underperformed the market, even including it's 6.8% dividend (5.5% after withholding tax).
I bought it partially for its good dividend, but also because it is undervalued at 73% of book value and the book value is likely understated as they almost always sell planes for over BV, so should be good upside.
Also, last quarter was quite good, but they did a shelf offering allowing them to sell common and debt at any time and the stock sold off as they did a poor equity sell a couple of years ago, so people are worried. They are at 2 year lows and just did a debt offering for $400 million, so hopefully that means the common sale is off the table.
ORI - Lowering my stink bid by $0.15
ReplyDeleteIf I was a gas producer I'd vent some gas in protest of low prices and post a video of the event on youtube.
ReplyDelete$NYMO is going to print a pretty big negative number. Could be a good counter trend rally coming very soon. My guess is we get at least a few days of rallying. If its timid then I think we haven't quite seen the lows of this move down.
ReplyDeleteI vote for rally, maybe I can get a green day for my portfolio?
Delete..flare baby, flare...
DeleteIf this keeps up I'm going to flare the gas out of my ass.
ReplyDeleteWhat the deuce?
DeleteMy account fell another 1.2%
ReplyDeleteI'm afraid to check what I am YTD. Flat at best.
DeletePretty sure I'm holding a big P&D bag that's not coming back prior to my death.
DeleteI did try to add BXE @ 6.17. No fill.
ReplyDeleteYou really want more of the same thing? Any one particular aspect you like about it, I haven't found anything really except largest Cardium presence and the Cardium might be a total hoax as far as I know, that might be the real problem.
DeleteATHL - I keep hearing about this one and it's prospects.
ReplyDeleteFBP - $8 target by my broker
BXE - I notice this one doesn't move up on good market days.
IWD vs IWF - Growth is outperforming Value it appears.
ReplyDeleteALDW - Looking pretty good, with that dividend might have a chance to recover my BXE losses considering crude oil is plentiful refiners should kick butt the next half decade.
ReplyDeleteBXE- CP, I want to be careful here because this is pretty much speculation on my part, but based on conversations with MOG, I believe BXE is a TLM type play when looking at the E&P side only and without the overseas hangover. In other words, if we believe in $5+ gas, it's cheap as assgas.
ReplyDeleteOkay good, want to know what you're thinking, thanks. So does MOG believe in $5 natty anytime in the next few years?
DeleteAside Q for the TT board: I see what looks like a lot of insider selling across the board but don't know how to verify/check if it's just insiders exercising payday options.
I've found that its worthless to look at insider selling/buying. There's absolutely nothing to gain from the selling and only a small amount to gain from the buying. Shit remember when insiders were buying the hell out of the coal stocks in 2011/12?
DeletePart of that is because house prices are lower now, so the house percentage is lower than it otherwise would have been.
ReplyDeletemom & pop really are back in the market up to their eyeballs???
ReplyDeleteCG - I think I like this one, any neg arguments concerning this one?
ReplyDeleteUp 2%, didn't take long at all.
DeleteI see that BB but then again house prices are still up quite a bit from 2000 right?
ReplyDeleteSold TNA at $66.05. I'm not expecting too much out of this rally.
ReplyDeleteI admire your clear thinking and ability to maneuver greatly, nice trade even if it does go higher.
DeleteCP- I'll check again but I think it's fair to say MOG would look for 4-6 gas over the next few years.
ReplyDeleteAdded to my AAPL short at $99.7
ReplyDeleteBallsy duder.
DeleteMy friends phone bent which sealed the deal for me. Probably wrong on this but worth a shot.
DeleteTOF- That equity/assets chart surprises me as well.
ReplyDeleteDoesn't mean we're in a bubble but just adds to the mounting evidence against this market. King dollar is the biggest fly in the ointment in the short term. Its acting like AA / OWW and all of those others that just shot up and never gave back.
DeleteI hope SPX puts in a new high soon so I can short it.
ReplyDelete$6.17 woulda filled, I'm waiting for $5's, like maybe $5.20 ? oil producers are being sold off b/c supply is increasing with new wells coming on line and demand is falling. Even refiners may have topped, which is why CG sold some positions?
ReplyDeletehttp://online.wsj.com/articles/carlyle-to-sell-shares-in-philadelphia-refinery-equipment-1411389251?mod=yahoo_hs
Oil may be trying to bottom here in the low $90's. Seems to be around the middle of it's 5 year range of $85 to $100. I think if we see oil firm, a lot of the energy stocks will bounce.
ReplyDeleteI think so too. I like BHI here, chart wise. Haven't looked at the fundamentals
DeleteGood point, that may happen but I'm not looking to play a bounce rather a firm bottom. Bounces are great for day trades as TOF has illustrated. Ideally I'd like to have BXE trading at $20 in a few years, that's what I'm hoping for and would be the best of scenarios.
DeleteBut if you think we get a bounce that implies you're looking for an exit I guess. I think the Permian oil production can run for 5 years or so, typical of previous Permian oil booms. But, this is a guess based on past history, maybe I'm in for a real shocker and it goes 500 years like some say it will?
I dunno, but hope it's not just another slight bounce on the way to the 70's else I should be out completely I think.
Rental collection storage tanks for the gushing oil? Salt caverns?
DeleteCP - I've been in the mindset of only taking shorter term trades recently only because I really do think there could be some impact on investor sentiment as the Fed gets out of the QE game. It will take some time to see if there's an impact but why risk holding on to shit right now, unless its so oversold that its due for a bounce (CRR comes to mind)? Remember, a lot of these fund managers have been buying with the understanding that the Fed is supporting the market. I doubt there's much truth to the Fed actually providing support but from a sentiment perspective I think it's worth considering how much of an impact it has had.
DeleteI really like Nat Gas here. I think it has been traded a lot like the S&P 500 did from 2009 to 2011 and I think Nat Gas just went through its August-October 2011 type crash that the market went through. People refused to believe we were in a new bull market for stocks and shorted the market endlessly. That chart of the speculative long positions in nat gas that I posted before - that shows the highest short position in well over 3 years. So people don’t believe it. Could set the stage for a really nice rally, so long as we don't go into a recession which would cause industrial demand to fall off a cliff
We need a boots on the ground perspective for confirmation of the gas concept if we can get it.
DeleteI've got BXE you know is my gas play, Mark too, so I'm guessing Mark's agreeing with you on this. I dunno, I see assholes and elbows out there in West Texas punching holes everywhere.
TKMR - One I was trying to follow a couple years back is into Ebola apparently.
ReplyDeletehttp://qz.com/170002/what-its-like-to-work-at-bill-grosss-pimco/
ReplyDeleteReminds me of Intel. "What did you do for me today".
DeleteKind of like AMZN here, despite its valuation and what not. If you put faith in these, its right at trendline support
ReplyDeleteI love the concept and lots of capital was spent on automating warehouses to reduce coat so they should be ultra competitive, they have a lot of users too, huh? I notice people don't even check prices on ebay, just habitually go to AMZN.
DeleteAdded 1/3 to my position in GM. Has held this $33 level all year where it is now and is cheap (fwd p/e of 7, good yield), just got debt rating increased, so cost of borrowing should drop.
ReplyDeleteMaybe it breaks through $33 this time, but hard to see much more downside.
I'm not going all in on my purchases here, but I just think it makes a lot of sense to buy some things into the recent weakness we've had, but also to save some cash in case we get more.
Might be a good idea, good luck and I'll likely join you if it does take a dive. I look at BC and it seems boat sales are decent so GM needs to make a few pickups. Chrysler pickups are popular, the RAM in particular, but I've been hearing those 12 speed transmissions are weak and have issues. Not sure if those trannies are Jeep only or what.
DeleteA couple days ago GM said they will sell over 3 million cars in this year with growth of close to 10%, so business doing well there.
DeleteGM is held by a lot of the big value players including Buffet and Tepper and I think what is happenning is when it gets down to $33, people think it is just too cheap and buy more. Eventually the sellers could overwhelm this, but for now seems a good place to buy.
CP - One other thing regarding nat gas to keep in mind: There are a significant amount of coal plants set to retire between December 2014 and April 2015 which will most likely put a nice bid under the nat gas market. Google coal plant retirements to get a sense. This is all of the fundamental stuff. Technically, I would obviously prefer to see it break out of the recent 2 month trading range it has been in.
ReplyDeleteAnother example of clear thinking! You're blowing me away TOF! :) MS claimed interest in exporting gas but you know, I have to wonder if there won't be enough.
DeleteThe IEA (International Energy Agency) report on the oil market is available online if you are interested:
ReplyDeletehttp://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/fullpub.pdf
They are saying growth in demand is not increasing nearly as quickly as expected, so that could put pressure on prices, although I'd expect Saudi to cut production if necessary to protect prices.
IDX - Where ya going?!?!? Umm, is this rotation back to US out of Asia? Signed: Not sure.
ReplyDeleteJuly gap up is closed now, just technical housekeeping?
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