Sell short limit order at $13.47 on MTW. Stock broke below 50 DMA and is sitting right below the 50 DMA now. heavily indebted company with low earnings.
Shark / etc - whats the thinking on AUY and PAL? For AUY, why isn't this thing moving with Gold up so much? I guess the same could be said for all gold miners.
hmmm...actually maximum frustration would play well with a bounce up to $117 on SPY now that I think about it more. That would have the 10% dip buyers feeling confident they can continue to buy dips, the shorts scared that its going right back up to the 1,200's and afraid to short any more.
Mark - No I haven't but it's just a common sense thing to me...charting doesn't work on ultras in my mind. Anyone buying these must know that its a short term trade only, unless if you feel a big trend is coming up
There is only charting and doing what the chart/indicators tell you to do, not using the useless organ God gave you to use as a battering ram in football.
Shark - Yday they tried 6 times to push $SPX down (by my count once @ 10:45 & the rest between 1:15 - 3:15) they couldn't do it. SPX @ EOD was pushing 1160. Anything can happen, but the low-side efforts failed...believe we go higher.
GMO - Taking half off here. I'm posting this trade specifically for the benefit of any leaches out there that might be wondering what I'm doing (not that I really know what I'm doing, because I know I don't).
FYI - Those still watching NLS...they have earnings tomorrow. The stock bounced off the 200 DMA last week and is stuck in no mans land between 200 DMA and 50 DMA.
Those bears just can't get enough of their bee-sting cream, it must have an odor of honey about it.
"Let there be no job growth or food for the hungry, may we stand in bread lines and may real estate fall and break it's neck, this will all end badly! Apocalypse Now!" Chicken Munchkin
My trades today are small but I'm contemplating moving a significant piece of my account into BGZ between this price and 117.40 on SPY for a trade. I think the set up is good with the 50 DMA as resistance.
I don't think it was a coincidence that our markets failed to move higher right at the level from which they crashed in 2008.
Then again, given all governments' propensity to just bail things out, it may make sense to buy up a bunch of junior gold miners like the NAK's of the world. It's pretty clear they all would prefer inflation over getting rid of debt.
Alright, went in heavy for a big trade on BGZ at $13.34. The trade is pretty simple with the 50 DMA just above us and a little bit above that as a stop.
If anyone doesn't think this market is trading technically, you're crazy. In looking back:
(1) The market crash on Thursday bottomed at just above the February low, thus keeping the higher lows/higher highs trend intact.
(2) On Friday, the market went down exactly to the 200 DMA and bounced.
(3) On Friday I said it would be very likely that the market would bounce, possibly as high as the 50 DMA because in every single other correction during a recovery over the past 80 years it never went straight through the 200 DMA. I said it could possibly go down 3 or 4% below it but it would bounce.
(4) Today the market went right up to the 50 DMA, making the move from Thursday low to here about 10%.
To me this was an excellent set up and why I went all in on my BGZ long at $13.34 just a few moments ago. My trades earlier in the day were just small ones but I'm now about 95% in BGZ at an average of around $13.40.
teamonfuego, one of the junior gold miners that is having an amazing move is UXG. I started scaling out of my core position in UXG way too early, at $3. Today, UXG hit a sell limit order I had for it at $3.75 for 500 shares and then at $3.9 for another 500 shares. I am down to 2500 shares of UXG now!
My biggest position right now is in ECU.TO -- it is moving up slowly but steadily, and I believe it has more upside potential from this point than UXG.
teamonfuego, I "hear" your technical argument. I just bought 100 more shares of TWM at $18.62 and placed a sell limit order for these shares at $19.62.
This morning, the stop limit order I placed for it for 100 shares was hit at $19.50, and I placed a sell limit order for these shares at $21.50 (I already have a sell limit order at $20.50 for 100 shares of TWM I picked up on Monday at $19.50).
Still holding myself from buying SPY puts, since VIX is dropping "by the day now," and if the market stays flat tomorrow, then VIX will be in the low 20's, which would indicate that puts are relatively cheap.
FYI - I think a logical downside target for a bear would be around 1,130. That's about 50% of the gap up on Monday and its where the market crashed from on Thursday...That would translate to about $14.8 on BGZ...
However, maximum frustration theory says that all bears would bail at this level if they got it and then the market would really tank, causing bears to not be in the market at the time and dip buyers from 1,100 to bail at a loss.
I think it's important to think about how the market is thinking right now. The dip buyers from Friday that are still holding are confident they saw bottoms in the correction. Why wouldn't they? They're still up almost 5% in 2 days. They advise people to begin putting money in because the bottom is in. They're confident. Thursday's crash was clearly an aberration, a false day that we can ignore.
What is needed for maximum frustration theory to take hold is for this confidence to erode. Will it? Who knows? I'm betting it will though.
Also, probably half of the dip buyers on Friday will bail when half their gains are erase...they get out with half their gains. The stubborn ones hold on to the bitter end, then bail. All the while the bears are in disarray after getting crushed repeatedly for 14 months.
Kyle, price action similar. One is based in N. America and the other in S. America. One if I'm correct have ex Newmont executives and I've watched it for about a year.
KRY was someone's pick of the year or something like and it killed alot of people who did not have a sell discipline. I was lucky and made 72% on one of three profitable trades in KRY back in the day. KRY is on my no trade list.
T3d - It's like the major market participants decided to reset all the positions to the Thurs market levels, before the extreme gap down. We're playing from the SPX 1150-1170 levels since then...
We were supposed to see some profit taking today after Monday's move, so today's market decline did not spook anyone. However, imagine the fear that people will get if the market drops 1% tomorrow? In that case, it will surely start looking as if the market is planning to re-test Friday's lows or even go below them. So the majority of market participants (who, probably, did not buy on Thursday/Friday but simply watched in disbelief the drop last week) will feel like this is their last chance to get out of here alive, and they will ALL head for the exits. So, if we see a 1% dip in the market tomorrow, then the easy trade would be to short the market big time and set a stop at Monday's lows.
Since I refuse to wake up early just for the sake of trading, I just set a buy stop limit order for 200 shares of TWM at $19.40/19.50. If that order gets executed tomorrow but by the time I wake up the market will turn green, I'll take a loss -- that's life.
i would not be surprised if we had black tuesday, in fact, mark called this last week and said up monday before fall on tuesday.
ReplyDeleteany major dip, I will be buying gold and metals
have a good day riding this serpent
VB
ReplyDeleteI would be surprised if we have "Black Tuesday"
Good band name btw....
Buy Yamana, buy PAL when it dips today, buy buy buy buy buy buy buy buy!
They Know NOTHING!:)
Help...I'm stuck in a fortune coockie factory!
no yamaha for me shark. I like pal at this price but what about earnings report - isn't it coming out on the 11th?
ReplyDeleteif the sky falls please buy some ngd for me
:0
I didn't say Yamaha, I said Yamana.
ReplyDeleteYes the call is today but no one is expecting any earnings; they just re-started their mine.
2nd....Wake up and have a bong hit!
ReplyDeleteYamana is gonna have a big day, maybe a gap open.
palladium is recovering from it's overnight drubbing. Fuck em, they can't have my PAL either.
It's a war folks...The war against the yuppie baby boomer scum (sorry if that describes anyone here).
Let's take it to 'em, and let's take their goddamn money, ok?
LET'S GO TROOPS! KICK SOME ASS!
guys - why isn't yamana (and many miners) participating with the gold rise?
ReplyDeleteSell short limit order at $13.47 on MTW. Stock broke below 50 DMA and is sitting right below the 50 DMA now. heavily indebted company with low earnings.
ReplyDeleteshark- Yeah, I needed that. Now I'm ready to focus.
ReplyDeleteShort MTW at $13.3. Stop is the other side of the 50 DMA
ReplyDeleteNEM, finally breaking out target 70.
ReplyDeleteCEF, another shelf has always been opportunity in the past.
ReplyDeleteLong BGZ at $14.03
ReplyDeleteAdded to my MTW short at $13.54.
ReplyDeleteAdded to BGZ at $13.89...legging into these trades.
ReplyDeleteYes I am the God of all charting:)
ReplyDeleteDo I have a banana for you:)
Shark / etc - whats the thinking on AUY and PAL? For AUY, why isn't this thing moving with Gold up so much? I guess the same could be said for all gold miners.
ReplyDeleteHard to believe Bill made a data error in his opening post. Any discrepancy that big would have to be confirmed prior to posting, IMO.
ReplyDeleteTZA @ 6.38 for a trade.
ReplyDeleteguys - My sense is we see a big move down today.
ReplyDeleteFD:
I'm positioned short. Did you hear PCLN's comments about Europe? That has to play into people's estimates on all other companies, no?
Out of TZA @ 6.40...
ReplyDeletehmmm...actually maximum frustration would play well with a bounce up to $117 on SPY now that I think about it more. That would have the 10% dip buyers feeling confident they can continue to buy dips, the shorts scared that its going right back up to the 1,200's and afraid to short any more.
ReplyDeleteBGZ is right at it's PP. Might want to be careful if it breaks lower. 13.86
ReplyDeleteNgas boys are doing well today.
ReplyDeleteMark - I would rather look at SPY relative to pivot points than an ultra ETF because of erosion issues.
ReplyDeleteHoping $SPX challenges 1160 before adding more to BGZ. right now we're in no man's land 1155 between 1150-1160 (yday's range).
ReplyDeleteTOF- I'm not sure. Data used for PP/S/R is only from yesterdays action, but I suppose it could have some effect. Have you seen any studies on this?
ReplyDeleteMark - No I haven't but it's just a common sense thing to me...charting doesn't work on ultras in my mind. Anyone buying these must know that its a short term trade only, unless if you feel a big trend is coming up
ReplyDeleteRide the serpent:)...Babe.
ReplyDelete2:00 today PAL conf call phone number
1-800-565-0813
Right now the PP for DIA/BGZ are the same relative to where each are trading right now. Perhaps .05% difference.
ReplyDeleteTOF...There's no thinking.
ReplyDeleteThere is only charting and doing what the chart/indicators tell you to do, not using the useless organ God gave you to use as a battering ram in football.
TOF- I hear ya. Besides, I have less confidence in them on these huge range days, but looking back over the past few days they held up pretty well.
ReplyDeleteFrom yday BGZ 13.70 ~ SPX 1160 & BGZ 14.15 ~ SPX 1150. Today's levels may be slightly different
ReplyDeleteEuro continues to drag ass.
ReplyDeleteKyle whatcha been up to?
ReplyDeleteBGZ & SSO man. Clearing out all the other bullshit. Still have UCO/SCO, UNG & DAG. Also put some into LQD. Cash otherwise...
ReplyDelete$SPX motoring towards 1160 test...
ReplyDeleteBlack Tuesday
ReplyDeleteDidn't come to pass
I am in love with myself.
Still in PAL/Yamana
Shark - Yday they tried 6 times to push $SPX down (by my count once @ 10:45 & the rest between 1:15 - 3:15) they couldn't do it. SPX @ EOD was pushing 1160. Anything can happen, but the low-side efforts failed...believe we go higher.
ReplyDeleteAdded some more BGZ at $13.73.
ReplyDeleteCP- You should be smiling today ;)
ReplyDeleteKyle - on the flip side, bears won 4 out of the last 5 days and are winning again today, albeit barely.
ReplyDelete$SPX 1160 breach - can it clear yday high of 1163 or do we go back down???
ReplyDeleteSo far it's been Black Tuesday for bears.
ReplyDeletetoday's action is yet another reason to keep the position sizes small guys, unless you're moving into a longer term positioning.
ReplyDeletei believe a test of the 50 DMA is inevitable now.
FYI - Check out MA and V...not much of a bounce out of those guys.
ReplyDeleteI still believe a bounce up to the 50 DMA is a good opportunity to sell long positions and get shorty.
ReplyDeleteFD:
I'm legging into short positions between 1,150s to 1,170s
SPX - Yday had a similar setup. SPX couldn't make it above 1162 or so around noon & went down to retest 1150 @1:15. BGZ up-turn resulted.
ReplyDeleteAnother good call by sharkie! Not so good on behalf of BC though.... Surprised? Not me.
ReplyDeleteAdded more BGZ at $13.52. Average at $13.75
ReplyDeleteShorted more MTW at $13.77. Avg now $13.60.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Taking half off here. I'm posting this trade specifically for the benefit of any leaches out there that might be wondering what I'm doing (not that I really know what I'm doing, because I know I don't).
ReplyDeleteWe routed the bears!
ReplyDeleteWe sent those motherfuckers running for their Bee-Sting cream:)
FYI - Those still watching NLS...they have earnings tomorrow. The stock bounced off the 200 DMA last week and is stuck in no mans land between 200 DMA and 50 DMA.
ReplyDeleteThose bears just can't get enough of their bee-sting cream, it must have an odor of honey about it.
ReplyDelete"Let there be no job growth or food for the hungry, may we stand in bread lines and may real estate fall and break it's neck, this will all end badly! Apocalypse Now!" Chicken Munchkin
My trades today are small but I'm contemplating moving a significant piece of my account into BGZ between this price and 117.40 on SPY for a trade. I think the set up is good with the 50 DMA as resistance.
ReplyDeleteI don't think it was a coincidence that our markets failed to move higher right at the level from which they crashed in 2008.
Then again, given all governments' propensity to just bail things out, it may make sense to buy up a bunch of junior gold miners like the NAK's of the world. It's pretty clear they all would prefer inflation over getting rid of debt.
ReplyDeleteTo that end, what are the junior gold miners that everyone is keyed in on?
ReplyDeleteAlright, went in heavy for a big trade on BGZ at $13.34. The trade is pretty simple with the 50 DMA just above us and a little bit above that as a stop.
ReplyDeleteSPX had a strong down to 1180 last Tues (4 May). That's where we're going...
ReplyDeleteIf anyone doesn't think this market is trading technically, you're crazy. In looking back:
ReplyDelete(1) The market crash on Thursday bottomed at just above the February low, thus keeping the higher lows/higher highs trend intact.
(2) On Friday, the market went down exactly to the 200 DMA and bounced.
(3) On Friday I said it would be very likely that the market would bounce, possibly as high as the 50 DMA because in every single other correction during a recovery over the past 80 years it never went straight through the 200 DMA. I said it could possibly go down 3 or 4% below it but it would bounce.
(4) Today the market went right up to the 50 DMA, making the move from Thursday low to here about 10%.
To me this was an excellent set up and why I went all in on my BGZ long at $13.34 just a few moments ago. My trades earlier in the day were just small ones but I'm now about 95% in BGZ at an average of around $13.40.
teamonfuego, one of the junior gold miners that is having an amazing move is UXG. I started scaling out of my core position in UXG way too early, at $3. Today, UXG hit a sell limit order I had for it at $3.75 for 500 shares and then at $3.9 for another 500 shares. I am down to 2500 shares of UXG now!
ReplyDeleteMy biggest position right now is in ECU.TO -- it is moving up slowly but steadily, and I believe it has more upside potential from this point than UXG.
GMO - Dumped 2nd half on somebody else, for a lower reload.
ReplyDeleteteamonfuego, I "hear" your technical argument. I just bought 100 more shares of TWM at $18.62 and placed a sell limit order for these shares at $19.62.
ReplyDeleteThis morning, the stop limit order I placed for it for 100 shares was hit at $19.50, and I placed a sell limit order for these shares at $21.50 (I already have a sell limit order at $20.50 for 100 shares of TWM I picked up on Monday at $19.50).
Still holding myself from buying SPY puts, since VIX is dropping "by the day now," and if the market stays flat tomorrow, then VIX will be in the low 20's, which would indicate that puts are relatively cheap.
Go get um TOF!
ReplyDeletemaximum frustration anyone?
ReplyDeleteAnother Euro victim I see...
ReplyDeleteJust for fun, bought 1000 shares of TZA at 6.11 for a day trade and set the stop at $6.06.
ReplyDeletePretty bid spread between the bigs and the smalls right now. (caps)
ReplyDeleteOK, out of TZA at 6.07 -- I see this is not going the right way, as the Dow went back into the green.
ReplyDeleteDavid- I have support @ 6.04.
ReplyDeleteNever mind... :)
ReplyDeleteCP- Damn it! I'm happy to see you FINALLY dumped the sucker. Congratulations, and buy yourself a great dinner tonight.
ReplyDeleteWTF, man. Picked up TZA @ 6.06.
ReplyDeleteMedian home prices for the US is 166K. Damn, that's about the cost for the pools I put in.
ReplyDeleteNice entry on BGZ, tof.
ReplyDeleteCan't believe TZA dropped to 5.93 earlier.
FYI - I think a logical downside target for a bear would be around 1,130. That's about 50% of the gap up on Monday and its where the market crashed from on Thursday...That would translate to about $14.8 on BGZ...
ReplyDeleteJust thinking out loud.
However, maximum frustration theory says that all bears would bail at this level if they got it and then the market would really tank, causing bears to not be in the market at the time and dip buyers from 1,100 to bail at a loss.
ReplyDeleteStill long Yamana.
ReplyDeleteWe're going to all-time highs in gold.
Also still long PAL, regrettably:)
2nd- Next resistance I have for TZA is 6.21. Nice open, man.
ReplyDeleteX @ LOD.
ReplyDeleteGMO - Doing it's typical "in your face" move here just before directional reality sets in....
ReplyDeleteSend in the dip buyers!
ReplyDeleteCP- So your seeing some down side here over all?
ReplyDeleteTZA off @ 6.19...
ReplyDeleteI think it's important to think about how the market is thinking right now. The dip buyers from Friday that are still holding are confident they saw bottoms in the correction. Why wouldn't they? They're still up almost 5% in 2 days. They advise people to begin putting money in because the bottom is in. They're confident. Thursday's crash was clearly an aberration, a false day that we can ignore.
ReplyDeleteWhat is needed for maximum frustration theory to take hold is for this confidence to erode. Will it? Who knows? I'm betting it will though.
Also, probably half of the dip buyers on Friday will bail when half their gains are erase...they get out with half their gains. The stubborn ones hold on to the bitter end, then bail. All the while the bears are in disarray after getting crushed repeatedly for 14 months.
ReplyDeleteAA/FCX now LOD.
ReplyDeleteTCK up 11% yesterday, down 8% today.
ReplyDeleteHere is a small gold stock <$1.
ReplyDeleteMDW
DYODD
T3d - Compare MDW w/ KRY Just for fun...
ReplyDeleteI got out of PAL after their less-than-scintillating conf call, and as the price failed some.
ReplyDeleteStill in AUY
2nd_ave -- excellent trade on TZA! I got spooked by the fact that Dow went red and then turned green again -- thought it would continue going up...
ReplyDeleteDamn..another day of nuttun here.
ReplyDeleteKyle, price action similar. One is based in N. America and the other in S. America. One if I'm correct have ex Newmont executives and I've watched it for about a year.
ReplyDeleteKRY was someone's pick of the year or something like and it killed alot of people who did not have a sell discipline. I was lucky and made 72% on one of three profitable trades in KRY back in the day. KRY is on my no trade list.
Good price comparison though Kyle.
Mark - The coiled-spring is forming....
ReplyDeleteMark - I was concerned the dip buyers were across town at another gig.
ReplyDeleteI've got no freakin' idea where this thing's going, I just got out while the gettin' was "good"... so now I can take it easy.
FD: I still have that damn UNH position @$30.73 though, so if there's any upside in store hopefully I'll be participating. Yee-Ha!
NLY - got my eye on ya, come to Chicken!
Kyle- Kinda feels/looks that way to me also.
ReplyDeleteT3d - It's like the major market participants decided to reset all the positions to the Thurs market levels, before the extreme gap down. We're playing from the SPX 1150-1170 levels since then...
ReplyDeleteQuick 30 stock scan gives me about 8/1 order imbalance on the buy side.
ReplyDeleteWe were supposed to see some profit taking today after Monday's move, so today's market decline did not spook anyone. However, imagine the fear that people will get if the market drops 1% tomorrow? In that case, it will surely start looking as if the market is planning to re-test Friday's lows or even go below them. So the majority of market participants (who, probably, did not buy on Thursday/Friday but simply watched in disbelief the drop last week) will feel like this is their last chance to get out of here alive, and they will ALL head for the exits. So, if we see a 1% dip in the market tomorrow, then the easy trade would be to short the market big time and set a stop at Monday's lows.
ReplyDeleteSince I refuse to wake up early just for the sake of trading, I just set a buy stop limit order for 200 shares of TWM at $19.40/19.50. If that order gets executed tomorrow but by the time I wake up the market will turn green, I'll take a loss -- that's life.