Friday, January 30, 2015

1/30/15 Get Shorty?

Less than an hour into the regular session, it's already (IMO) been an extraordinary 12 hours.  DJIA futures traded as low as -170 points overnight.  The DJIA opened well off those lows, quickly climbed into the green, only to reverse and plunge -100 points.

(a) OIH/XLE are diverging from the broader indexes, both well in positive territory (no doubt helped by a +2% rally in crude).
(b) Miners also in the green, despite a flat dollar.
(c) EEM (Emerging Markets) off -2% as Brazil's Ibovespa declines -2% (EWZ off -4%).


My take?  Shorts will drive the market to a close near the day's highs.  Note the question mark in the title, however.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

1/28/15 It's just a shot away

The most likely reaction to FOMC will be a rally in US indexes.  Not so sure that will be the case today.  What this market really needs (in order to move on to new highs) is a well-deserved rest.  I hope we get one.

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

1/20/15 'I was drowned, I was washed up and left for dead'

But it's all right now, in fact, it's a gas
But it's all right, I'm Jumpin' Jack Flash
It's a gas! Gas! Gas!

Was it just last Wednesday UGAZ (3x NGas futures) spiked +30%?  Today it's plummeting -24% to a new all-time low.  Opening a small position @ 3.32.

Saturday, January 17, 2015

1/17/15 Swiss Cheese

The Swiss National Bank this week (abruptly) abandoned the currency cap on the Swiss franc (relative to the Euro).  What's it all mean?  The financial media is full of opinions, but I prefer to take a more 'forensic' approach.

(a) On Tuesday, the Swiss Market Index hit a 52-wk high.  On Thursday, the same index hit a 52-wk low.  I don't think Martha Stewart (a shrewd trader [well, of her company stock anyway] in her own right!) would refer to that as 'a good thing.'

(b) The spike in the value of the Swiss franc was reported to be a 22 sigma (ie, a 22 standard deviation move) event.

(c) Naturally, a 22 sigma event will have consequences.  Several currency speculators were wiped out.

(d) In my opinion, here's the relevant article to read: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/broker-reassurances-about-swiss-exposure-may-be-the-smoke-that-leads-to-a-fire-sale-2015-01-16?mod=MW_story_latest_news.  I agree completely.  Swiss cheese has a distinctive appearance, its blocks riddled with holes.  The same may apply to the 'no worries' approaches making the rounds this weekend.

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

1/14/15 Copper

(a)    Opening FCX (Freeport-McMoran) around 19.  Changing hands @ 50% off its 52-wk high on plunging copper prices.
(b)   Oil starting to find its footing.  Reopening positions in XLE (Energy), OIH (Oil Services), PBR (Petrobras), and RSX (Russia).
(c)    Reopening a position in GDX (miners) @ 20.65.

(d)   May elect to open positions in the S&P500 and/or EEM (Emerging Markets) should morning weakness present decent entries. 

Thursday, January 8, 2015

Monday, January 5, 2015

1/5/14 Long fuse/ Big bang

http://www.economist.com/node/1270474

'In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could.'  -Rudiger Dornbusch

(a) The Euro off another -0.75% this morning.
(b) Crude off another -3.8%, extending the fastest collapse in oil prices since 2008.
(c) Copper futures at a 52-wk low.
(d) Brazil's Ibovespa off another -2.27% in early trading.  After spiking +8% (in five trading days) from its mid-December lows, the index has now given back -6.8% in six trading days.