Mornings like this are where it gets ‘tricky.’
(a) I plan to close RYWYX (Rydex 2x Inverse Emerging Markets) at the 1030 est window. Based on current bids for EEM, the position would close with a +2.4% gain.
(b) On the other hand, the long bond continues to climb. TLT +0.5% pre-market.
(c) I ‘should have’ held RYTPX (Rydex 2x Inverse SPX) overnight (now looking at a +0.7% move based on early pricing for SDS), but I closed yesterday partly as a hedge against being ‘wrong’ on RYWYX. Since SPX closed flat, and EEM closed up +0.51%, I decided shorting emerging markets was the higher-odds play.
(d) The $USD continues to climb. Normally this places pressure on gold/commodities in general. Early indications show gold +10. Why?
(e) Russian troops have ‘reportedly’ entered East Ukraine. That's the 'news,' anyway.
(f) RSX (Russia) trading down -3% pre-market. I think a buying opp sets up today.
Potential setups today: RSX (Russia), EEM/RYWVX (ie, making a quick ‘U’ on my emerging markets short), GDX/RYPMX (miners on an intraday pullback), RYWBX (Rydex 2x Weakening Dollar), FXE (a bet on a reversal in the Euro), and RYMBX (Rydex Commodities, which will benefit from a decline in the $USD).