Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Saturday, February 14, 2015

2/14/15 'Nam

The Ia Drang Valley.  Khe Sanh.  The Mekong Delta.  It's like watching Apocalypse Now all over again.  The above miniseries is available for download on NFLX.  I watched the entire six hours in one sitting last Sunday.

Apart from scattered images in the Chronicle, Life magazine, or on TV I don't recall much about 'Nam.  Too busy navigating adolescence between 1965 and 1972, and missed the draft lottery by exactly one year.  By January 1973 I was hitching down Route 66 listening as a radio announcer read off the names of returning vets.  Most of my memories revolve around antiwar demonstrations and the musicians that shared the platform.  This series filled in the blanks and put it all together for me.    

Friday, February 13, 2015

2/13/15 Spoonful

My last minute
U-turn on bonds yesterday paid off.  TLT
(the long bond) is off another -0.73% today.
At this point, it’s worth a contrarian buy.  Opening a small position in RYGBX (Rydex 1.2x
Government Long Bond) at the close.

Gold and Oil.  A ‘spoonful’ of either has inspired/informed
geopolitical events for centuries.  The
spike in oil is likely to retrace.  The
decline in gold/silver prices?  I think
they hammered out short-term bottoms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Long GDX/GDXJ and reopening
RYPMX (Rydex Precious Metals) at the close.

Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Comment Cleaner

Is the Wicker Rocket back in play?? PIR

Friday, January 30, 2015

1/30/15 Get Shorty?

Less than an hour into the regular session, it's already (IMO) been an extraordinary 12 hours.  DJIA futures traded as low as -170 points overnight.  The DJIA opened well off those lows, quickly climbed into the green, only to reverse and plunge -100 points.

(a) OIH/XLE are diverging from the broader indexes, both well in positive territory (no doubt helped by a +2% rally in crude).
(b) Miners also in the green, despite a flat dollar.
(c) EEM (Emerging Markets) off -2% as Brazil's Ibovespa declines -2% (EWZ off -4%).

My take?  Shorts will drive the market to a close near the day's highs.  Note the question mark in the title, however.

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

1/28/15 It's just a shot away

The most likely reaction to FOMC will be a rally in US indexes.  Not so sure that will be the case today.  What this market really needs (in order to move on to new highs) is a well-deserved rest.  I hope we get one.

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

1/20/15 'I was drowned, I was washed up and left for dead'

But it's all right now, in fact, it's a gas
But it's all right, I'm Jumpin' Jack Flash
It's a gas! Gas! Gas!

Was it just last Wednesday UGAZ (3x NGas futures) spiked +30%?  Today it's plummeting -24% to a new all-time low.  Opening a small position @ 3.32.