Monday, May 10, 2010
5/11/10 Cantaloupe Island
Had to walk away from the PC around 1115 am (pst) today, and was basically preoccupied for the remainder of the afternoon.
When I checked quotes by cell later in the day and heard that the DJIA had closed +404, 50 points below the high of the day, my first thought was 'Maybe I should have kept a few ultrashort bets going.'
Then I entered the symbols for TZA, ERY, and FAZ. All closed just pennies above their lows- WTF.
What's that trading rule? Thou shalt (with the possible exception of King David) clear all ultras off the table before logging off.
So the portfolio is now just -1.6% off the YTD high. One day at a time.
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In reply to vb's question- I don't know.
ReplyDeleteA 400-point gap-up open + a close around the same area certainly fulfills the 'max frustration' principle- no one was permitted an easy entry, and no one was granted an easy profit in either direction.
2nd, that's what I'm by the saying trying to drink from a fire hose in this environment. The market ramps like no tomorrow in either direction leaving one to chase or sit.
ReplyDeleteThe only way to make real profits (for a day) seems to be taking a bet on red or black the day before and see which color is hit. Personally, if I cannot come up with a better edge then 50/50, I prefer not to play.
I have almost come to the conclusion to just enjoy life the best you can right now because when this house of cards comes down the standard of living many people are enjoying is going to come crashing down.
I really prefer to be an optimist, but printing money to infinity like never before in the history of mankind is going to ultimately put a stake through the heart of society as we know it.
t3d- Then it makes sense to stay out. Betting red or black on a daily basis comes down to ending flat anyway.
ReplyDeletevb makes a good point. After a 400-pt gap up, what's left?
ReplyDeleteEight-year-old's back in cash newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4410 comments) on Mon, 05/10/2010 - 20:47 #62647
ReplyDeleteThe 400-point rally this morning made me uncomfortable (it felt 'off,' as they say) to the point of wanting out of any positions. So I closed the two 6% positions I opened in the little guy's account recently (C and WATG) on morning strength.
I don't know where the indexes go from here, but I'm back to preferring cash over stock certificates for now.
I may even end up preferring craps over trading for a few weeks...
ReplyDeletehttp://finance.yahoo.com/news/Fidelity-restructures-apf-2636461617.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=
ReplyDelete"Fidelity Investments said Monday it is creating two organizations to oversee its far-flung financial services operations, hiring an outsider to run one, and naming the daughter of the company's 79-year-old CEO to run the other.
"Running distribution and sales of Fidelity's financial products will be Abigail Johnson, a longtime Fidelity executive and daughter of Edward "Ned" Johnson III. Abigail Johnson, 48, has been rumored for years to be an heir apparent to Ned Johnson, who has held the CEO and chairman titles since 1977 at privately held Fidelity. The Johnson family owns a 49 percent stake in the Boston-based company, with key employees owning the rest."
We need to start our own hedge fund, guys. We can then appoint our kids to manage OPM.
Not much follow-through in Asia right now.
ReplyDeleteThe see-saw theory predicts a -400 point gap down tomorrow?
ReplyDeleteWhat's today, May 10? Any bets as to which target comes closer to the (Monday) May 31 close-
ReplyDelete(a) 11k
(b) 10k
(c) 12k
ReplyDelete(d) 9k
I'll say the first thing that comes to mind: (d)
ReplyDeleteSlopers are meeting in Vegas tonight.
ReplyDelete2nd- Maximum frustration dictates higher prices. I can't believe how many stocks I follow (without me) had 10, 15, 20% days. Shit NKE was up 9%...
ReplyDeleteI've always been partial to (e) :)
ReplyDeleteI've been wondering recently what's changed in me. You guys must see it. I used to be far more aggressive with my trading, both long and short. Hmmm...
ReplyDeleteBTW, TOF, very nice article by Kostohryz you posted on European Leaders. Thanks.
ReplyDeletesecond you are right. .. I think there might be better odds at the casino since there are gaming restrictions and laws that are enforced.
ReplyDeletehere the house/bank can stack the deck, shuffle up and play all sorts of games to win
mark what is the change are you pregnant or what?
ReplyDeletedo you think the chicken poopie is lurking?
ReplyDeletei do!
chikie, you shouldn't punish all your friends because of one bad apple. please come back we miss you
The reason why +404 points on the Dow seems overdone because $1T of European loans will go to Greece (which probably won't speculate with that money in the US markets), as opposed to being placed by the Fed on reserve of US banks (which undoubtedly use that money to speculate in the markets). So the AMB indicator is still pointing down, and so I don't think the markets will break out to new highs in the next couple of weeks.
ReplyDeletePregnant? Well..that would explain the sudden weight gain and mood swings. And I did have a little "episode" at work the other day when I realized my shoes didn't match my belt or purse...
ReplyDeletewell well well
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzMC-rlQpFY
T3D- Just ran that by my kids and they liked it :) God forbid they turn out like me.
ReplyDeleteStanding aside right now?
Now that was what I call a Nantucket sleighride!:
ReplyDelete"A Nantucket sleighride was a term used by Nantucket whalers to describe what occurs immediately following the harpooning of a whale. The whale, realizing it had been harpooned, would attempt to flee and thus drag the whale boat along with it. The speed of the "sleigh ride" would vary depending on the size of the whale, with larger whales giving faster rides. The resulting thrill ride for the sailors would last as long as the whale could swim before it became exhausted. Once the whale expended its energy, the sailors would kill it and harvest its oil."
Now I can sleep peacefully :)...unless those cramps kick in again...
ReplyDeletePat Metheny on guitar, quite possibly the greatest jazz fusion guitarist ever.
ReplyDeleteNice find 2nd, your amazing.
Trading in Hubris: Pride, Overreach, and the Inevitable Blowback and Consequences
ReplyDeleteHe thinks the euro is done, and the dollar will remain the sole currency. His attitude is, "What will replace it?" He cannot even imagine anything different than what we have today. But interestingly enough he does not believe that the US government is running things. "Things are being run by a new world order, and have been for some time." He said that so matter of factly that it made me catch my breath.
http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2010/05/goldman-sachs-overreach-hubris-and.html