Wednesday, May 12, 2010

5/13/10 Tonight's The Night



Did I stop out of TZA? Hell, no!

Tonight's the night they sell off in Asia.

And if not tonight, WTF- I'll add to TZA tomorrow.

102 comments:

  1. Throwing another chip on the pass line bet. If they roll a point tomorrow, I'll stack odds behind it.

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  2. And if not, shark and I will roll a joint tomorrow.

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  3. When I first saw this post I thought it was Ricardo Montalban as Kahn!

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  4. Did I say something about Corinthian leather?

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  5. 2nd - You're a glutten for punishment! That said, S&P finally passed the mustard today, which actually took longer than I'd anticipated.

    Anyway, long side risk is increasing and vice-versa, but the last rally segment lasted two and a half months!!!

    It just seems easier to time upside entry's than downside due to sudden selling mood swings.

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  6. Remember the first couple years of Fantasy Island? They we're really bizarre with scary endings.

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  7. 2nd- As good as time as any to place a bet. Right at the underside of the last lower trend line and the 50. The 50 could start to curl up here though and the SPY might just crawl up along the underside of it. GL shooter!

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  8. Reminds me of the TV commercial of two rabbi's in the back seat of an '73 LTD circumcising a child while rolling down a pot-marked gravel road at 55 MPH.

    Anybody think NLY will see $15.50 or lower? There are several open downward gaps left over from the $18's...

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  9. 15.50 looks like a good entry to me. Close on 5/6 and the low on 5/7.

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  10. NLY - I'm gonna go for it I think, remember giving up on TCK, WEL, FTWR, NANO, etc, etc, etc????

    Kinda feels like that with GMO right now, what are the chances?

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  11. T3D- Thanks for the post earlier about Ngas!

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  12. Well finally bought the hooptie shed today, 24wx26lx13h just under $5k signed, sealed, delivered and installed.

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  13. 5K! You've got to e-mail a picture of that.

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  14. 5K? Is it constructed with popsickle sticks and visqueen? That's dirt cheap! Hey.....are you taking advantage of Arizona exports?

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  15. ES is pinned right at the closing price.

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  16. You all know I watch this one closely. PXP. It might be over done here. The project in question really wasn't the greatest deal for PXP, and if it's canceled, they will continue to operate the shitty, leaking OS wells they have. I'm interested at this price.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/plains-exploration-dips-on-scrapped-drilling-plan-2010-05-04

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  17. Hey guys,

    I'm looking to get outside tomorrow.

    Hey check it out.....I was just at the beach.....and a woman washed up yo. Very weird.

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  18. Well, it's really not a complete building per say, it's basically just a roof. I'll be hanging my own sheathing and siding on it and such once I've got it framed out the way I want it...

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  19. PXP - I like charts like that, the RSI-7 is just about to come up through 30.

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  20. Shark - I suppose you mean she wasn't in any mood for a night on the town...

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  21. PXP- I've done my homework. Unless the market falls apart I'll open a position. GL

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  22. Wake up Maggie.

    MMR looks interesting, have small position.

    You stole my soul.

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  23. Whether you believe this or not, it should be read.

    How Could Any One Trust Investing in Ultra Shorts ETF's ...... new
    Submitted by analyst65 (103 comments) on Thu, 05/13/2010 - 01:21 #62829
    After reading this ..

    http://www.gamingthemarket.com/financial-armageddo...

    No Wonder my brother couldn't sell his FAZ during the crash last Thursday. Looks like Thousands others couldn't either..

    Should we stop trading ETF's then or What?

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  24. No I mean a woman (dead) actually washed up in Westport when I was there watching the "sun set" yesterday.

    "UPDATE A body believed to be that of a Greenwich woman missing three weeks was found washed up today at Westport’s Compo Beach, police said.
    Michiko Kamhi: body found near Compo playground. Contributed photo

    A woman walking along the beach spotted the body late today near the playground, detectives said. It was believed to be that of Michiko Kamhi, 48, who was reported missing from her Greenwich home on April 19. (See WestportNow April 21, 2010)

    She was last seen the next night in the Old Mill Beach area and a dog identified as hers was later found washed ashore at Sherwood Island State Park. Police said initial examination of the body showed no indication of foul play. Greenwich police had described Kahmi as possibly suicidal.

    Police checked the Sherwood Mill Pond area as well as waters off Compo Beach. Her car had been found on Bradley Street, not far from Compo Beach."

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  25. guys - why are we bothering going against the market? the market is still above the 200 DMA. historically speaking, that's never been the time to short the market. maybe we should just step aside and wait for that moment...and in the meantime focus on long positions?

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  26. I wouldn't even consider going long here and need to avg $500 a day to make a living, which I can't get in interest, so no choice but to time entry for leveraged short as I see it.

    I'd have made most of my goal for the day if I'd had a bit more guts and patience...

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  27. looked at my chart, too late, of course, and the sell violated all my rules, but i was AFRAID of the jobs report, so sold without even looking.

    DUH!

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  28. tof- Right now I'm playing exactly as I would in a casino.

    I can't tell if the trend has reversed. I'm using Vad's take on the drop below 118.21 as one 'tell.' On the other hand, the market has bounced back nicely.

    So it's placing bets and managing risk.

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  29. the REAL mistake there was having CNBC audio running to cause me fear

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  30. Cara 100 Ratings Changes
    Submitted by Bull Hunter (1012 comments) on Thu, 05/13/2010 - 08:26 #62847
    Good morning.

    CSCO - Downgraded to Neutral @ Davenport

    NOK - Needham Initiates Coverage with a Hold.

    SLB - Upgraded to Outperform @ Macquarie

    --------

    Note to 2nd:

    I'm overnighting you a kevlar suit for use when the Governator announces his welfare cuts tomorrow. You might consider moving to higher ground or perhaps taking that vacation here to the Amish Country and stopping by for your free lunch. ;^)

    BH

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  31. Re: Cara 100 Ratings Changes newSubmitted by 2nd_ave (4411 comments) on Thu, 05/13/2010 - 08:30 #62851 (in reply to #62847)
    Thank you, BH, but I own two already and only need to decide whether to wear the blue or the black.

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  32. anyone know if Schwarzenegger is scheduled to make an annoucement tomorrow?

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  33. My attitude/confidence is completely shot now, so giving up for the morning, at least...

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  34. Bob,

    I take what I hear on CNBC with a major grain of salt. For example, this morning we are setting up for a selloff based on Cuomo's son suing all the banks, right? So CNBC will say something absolutely retarded, such as "futures today indicating a strong open" when they're really basically flat. I hate hate HATE most of the CNBC peeps; the best ones have left.

    Remember Rebecca Jarvis? Foxy little thing. She's doing the morning show on CBS now.

    Margret Brennan? She has the nicest set of encyclopedias in the business, but she took those puppies over to Bloomberg where she hosts her own show.

    Ratigan you know about. Jeff Mackie couldn't stnd the switch from Ratigan to Ms. Lee, whom I personally favor but for all the wrong reasons.

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  35. I detest the clowns they have on in the morning. They cause me to have fear in positions that are correct and cause me to make stupid mistakes.

    On the other side of the coin, sometimes they get info in advance, illegally, imo, that they then spout and if you don't hear it that second and bail out, you are screwed, if say you were just watching a news feed or listening to bloomberg.

    really its a catch 22 that sucks

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  36. well, i'm holding my BGZ for now but I'm doubting my desire to do so...

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  37. i guess i hate myself for being myself...

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  38. completely demoralized here. another near perfect buy a idiotic exit

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  39. Bob,

    Don't be COMPLETELY demoralized.....You took a good position and sold it wrong. So yu basically did the thing 60% right, and you have to find and isolate what was good about it while excising the mistake of NOT BELIEVING in yourself, ultimately, and the decision you already had made.

    Trading means:

    A) taking a position in the absence of certitude
    B) trusing it enough not to kill the trade until proven dramatically wrong.
    C) selling the puppy just when it looks most promising, most hopeful to most amateur chartists.

    Bob...go to the fridge, get a cold beer relaz and don't force it my man. Let it flow. And relenquish, to the extent possible, your monetary goals and concentrate on playing the game right, the rest will take care:)

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  40. Looks like they're getting a jump on the Friday selloff:)...not wanting to get caught in the rush.

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  41. AA ripping on F con call?

    2nd- I don't know of any impending announcement in CA.

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  42. SGEN gunning for it's gap. F^%$#

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  43. Might get a little squeeze in Ngas today. I was hoping for a re-entry:(

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  44. X is really flying folks, I don't see a selloff?

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  45. Dammit Shark! Encyclopedias?
    I'll never be able to lOOk at bOOks the same again.

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  46. Might be a nice bottom in copper here.

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  47. ff...I know what you mean:)

    GMO...Is it breaking out for real???

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  48. Capitulating on TZA. Being stubborn turned a 3-digit loss into a 4-digit loss.

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  49. I was talking with my wife recently about the following strategy, given that we're both more comfortable trading the long side-

    (a) Stay in cash. Forget about gaming the short side.
    (b) Wait for the next buying opportunity.
    (c) Spend the time on other projects, which may be just as profitable, if not more

    After reading the link t3d provided to the ultra ETFs, I may add-

    (d) ---- the ultras. It's hard enough playing against the house. Why pick a game where no one really understands the rules? I may do a post tonight.

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  50. GMO - Perhaps it's just the momentum players doing their thing.

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  51. long TZA again, but cheaper at 5.56

    I'm pissed. No sound in here anymore after that.

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  52. Is it a coincidence GMO puts in a 52wk high on the day S&P kisses the 50DMA?

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  53. Sold ACMR at a small loss. Still holding BGZ for some unGodly reason.

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  54. WTF just happened to FTWR?

    Surprise me when I get back. GL!!

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  55. I wonder how many fails at the 50 DMA before the market actually breaks down...I don't know if its got many more fights left in it (in the short term at least)

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  56. I suspect Fed and Congress is on high alert for another mini-crash so if it goes down it will be gradual at best. Going up fast, well who cares about that?

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  57. Hoping for a bounce to give me a good TZA entry.

    One trade away from the goal...

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  58. TOF- Given the retracement of the market in China, and what looks like a pretty good tradeable bottom with a clean stop, what's your take on WATG right now?

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  59. Mark, did MOG ever get back to you with an e-mail about the NG prospects? Just when I was ready to give up on NG, it started rallying. I can't figure out what is driving this rally, though. What the Asian corporations said about NG being at a cyclical bottom does not prevent, in any way, a horrible contango to develop in 4 months if the storage will be at record high in September...

    HNUZF hit a sell limit order at $6 today for 500 shares I picked up at $5.50 two weeks ago. I am out of HNUZF now (but still have plenty of HNU.TO in my ETrade Global Trading account) and plenty of UNG. My next two sell limit orders are on UNG at $7.80 and $8.

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  60. David- Yes. I made a post about it, but will redo it after work. You did see I opened PXP and re-loaded SD today, right? Good job on UNG. I took profits way to early :)

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  61. I've been thinking about this the last few days...With all of the crap flying around the money center banks, might Co's that actually produce something start to take some of that money. This would put pressure on the SPX because of the weighting, but might let the others run a little. Kinda another reason I've moved away from the index etf's into individual positions.

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  62. Mark, I've been reading your posts carefully over the past few days and have just re-checked them, and I didn't see a special post about NGas.

    The PXP chart indeed looks promising. I just bought 200 shares at $25.60 and set a sell stop limit at $24.60/24.

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  63. David- Damn...maybe it was in my dreams! Sorry..I'll do it after work.

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  64. We need to plan a dinner..err meeting.. soon :).

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  65. Guys,

    Just got back from 9 holes. Get this...I played with 2 sexy mature (40-ish) females, one from Sweden, the other from Norway. Guys, let me tell you...I fell in LOVE with both these chicks at the same time. Saying goodby one of them and I were hugging, I was kissing her her cheek as she stood there letting my hands wander across her tiny little heart-shaped ass. I didn't want to ever let go.

    And check this out...I shot 2 over thru 9, with a birdie 3 bogeys and 5 pars.

    What a happy day!

    No positions.

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  66. Got my bounce and good entry, but sold too soon again. Within $50 of day goal.

    Oh well...

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  67. Is the market just sucking in bears now by making it *seem* as if the 50-day MA test on the S&P has failed?

    If the market closes at the current levels or below, then I'll set a sell stop order on a bunch of my ultrashorts at yesterday's closing price, for if the market rises again on Friday then the chances of the correction being over will indeed be high IMO.

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  68. Mark - I have noticed that some small cap China stocks are performing well today in a down tape. However, I'm steering clear of long positions in this market. I'm sorry but I just don't like the entry point right here. I know the S&P is "supposed" to earn $80 this year and $95 next year, but I just don't see it. We're dealing with tax rates that will be rising, countries that will be cutting budgets, a rising dollar, a significantly underestimated disaster in the Gulf from the oil leak, a slow down in China and Brazil and potentially higher oil prices. Given all of these issues I don't see a scenario where companies can grow earnings 35 or 40% this year and another 20% next year. I think $75 x 13-14 is a reasonable multiple to apply to the market...which translates to around 1,000.

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  69. FD: I'm long BGZ and nothing else. Still mostly in cash.

    I will be watching for opportunities to pick up stocks on the cheap. Despite today's drop in NLS I actually like this and am hoping I can buy some at the 200 DMA.

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  70. Any of you guys catch the piece on CNBC about the gold ATM?? Too funny.

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  71. TOF- Thanks for your take and reasoning.

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  72. My last (and final) foray into the ultras (I wanted to make the last one a profitable one)-

    VXX/FAZ/ERY all closed with gains.

    That's it, man. ---- the ultras.

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  73. I think we are getting close to a tradeable low in Oil. (UCO)

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  74. I know this guy is a little looney but I think this article hits the nail on the head about Europe:

    http://market-ticker.org/

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  75. How many different ways can I say ----!

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  76. Damn, looks like I rushed my entry into PXP. Oh well. At least I know now that if the market rebounds on Friday, PXP will most likely rebound as well and will compensate my disappointment about TWM never making it to my sell limit price of $18.78. Or maybe it will make it tomorrow? :) In that case, I don't care about PXP being down -- it will survive and eventually rise.

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  77. 2nd_ave -- the outcome you felt intuitively this week is indeed developing with a delayed onset... The market still have plenty of time today to make a major reversal and close only with a minor loss.

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  78. I just bought some more UCO at $11.10, adding to the position I opened a couple of days ago at $11.70.

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  79. SKF looking good a good bet based on Cuomo's actions of later re: the banks.

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  80. Thanks for the reminder Shark...I forgot to add financial regulation as yet another reason to stay on the sidelines/slightly short.

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  81. CSCO @ 25.37. Right on the 100 ema.

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  82. I like my positions here...well see.

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  83. Key reversal day? Isn't that what they call days like this, where the high is higher than the previous day and the low is lower? Either way, I think today's action spells more downside.

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  84. More downside - Based on what I witnessed today, I'd have to say that was an excellent call. I'm willing to wait, but I'm seeing some interesting low prices right here as well as some not so interesting.

    It really would be nice to reload some GMO around $3.50 or below on another fast drop.

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  85. BAX - Anybody looking at this one? Cash flow seems pretty good and they're beat to heck already...

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  86. Chicken - I don't know anything about this but in general I have seen that it pays to give a stock like this time to "find" its true bottom. Look at GOOG, BP, RIG, MON, UNG and tons of others. They're still trying to find their bottom.

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  87. I didn't like today's action. With the exception of CHSCP I'm back to cash. I think we see lower prices. If not then I'll wait for the next pullback. "Patience young Jedi...."

    I see Shark was whacking his balls and shopping the Scandinavian market for World bOOk. Yet no positions. What a drag.

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